September 01, 2004
Never have there been so few undecided voters in a presidential race. In the Gallup poll taken just before the incumbent party's convention, the undecided vote has ranged from 5% in 1996 to as high as 12% in 1972. This year, Gallup shows just 2% of voters are undecided.
This has significant implications for each campaign's strategy:
- Getting out the vote. The Bush and Kerry campaigns face a major tradeoff: What pleases core supporters may turn off swing voters, and vice versa. With fewer people up for grabs, we may see the campaigns run towards their fringes instead of towards the center. (For specific strategies, see Get Out the Vote: How to Increase Voter Turnout.)
- Political ads may change. Portraying your opponent as supporting "liberal" or "conservative" policies may only motivate their most enthusiastic supporters. Instead, "character issues" are likely to dominate.
- Debates could take on a different role. They're usually one of the last chances for candidates to appeal to undecided voters, but with nearly all having made up their mind, debates could be less important this year. Or, more likely, the candidates may use them to whip up support of their most loyal followers to get to the polls.
Joe Trippi see history repeating itself: "If the Dukakis campaign of 1988 taught Democrats anything, it should have taught us that you don’t sleep in August. Not against these guys, and not against anyone in this business no matter how formidable the lead. The Kerry campaign should have learned from their close call with the Dean campaign to never sleep walk or fall into the slumber of overconfidence again."
The latest
ICR Presidential Election Poll shows the White House race "is neck and neck." Among likely voters, Kerry gets 48%, Bush gets 45% and Ralph Nader trails with 2%. Just 5% are undecided.
Meanwhile, a
National Annenberg Election Survey finds Bush "has erased the modest gains" Kerry made on him after the Democratic National Convention.
Said poll director Adam Clymer: "It’s almost as if the last five weeks didn’t happen, at least to the country as a whole. Both candidates maintained their strengths, and their weaknesses."
Here are the latest state polls:
- Wisconsin: Kerry 49%, Bush 45% (Lake Snell Perry)
- Michigan: Kerry 51%, Bush43% (Lake Snell Perry)
- Minnesota: Kerry 47%, Bush 44% (Hart Research)
Editor's Note: The above polling firms do most of their work for Democratic clients.
Ryan Lizza reports that the Kerry campaign's "high command" has asked to brief the press in New York on Thursday morning "and no doubt try to quell the firestorm of chatter sweeping the convention hall about the staff being in disarray."
Scheduled to drop by a
Christian Science Monitor breakfast, "which should be one of the best events of the week, are: Campaign Manager Mary Beth Cahill, Senior Strategist Tad Devine, Communications Director Stephanie Cutter, pollster Mark Mellman, and recently recruited political adviser Doug Sosnik. The one big name missing from the list is the person who has been the subject of much of the shakeup talk, Bob Shrum -- granted Shrum rarely speaks publicly for the campaign, even during those rare times when he isn't at the center of campaign intrigue."
Speculating on a potential shake up,
Dan Rather says James Carville "is unlikely to join the campaign full time. But there is also some talk of Carville associate and former Clinton communications honcho Paul Begala potentially playing some role. Either way, word is that we'll know the extent of any current shake-up by Thursday."
"Twenty years of votes can tell you much more about a man than twenty weeks of campaign rhetoric. Campaign talk tells people who you want them to think you are. How you vote tells people who you really are deep inside."
-- Sen. Zell Miller (D-GA), in
excerpts of his keynote address tonight to the Republican National Convention.
Josh Marshall reports
60 Minutes will soon run "a lengthy interview" with Ben Barnes, the former Texas politician, who will "describe the strings he pulled to keep Bush out of Vietnam and apparently more."
Salon also has the story.
Like son, like father. President Bush says he doesn't read newspapers, and now, according to
USA Today, his father says he's "given up" on the
New York Times. "The thing that troubles me is, in my opinion, their news columns are getting to show a certain bias."
"There is a new way you do it now: 'Reporter's Notebook.' That gives you a little chance to be an advocate in the news column. Or 'Washington Whispers' or something like that. And that relieves the reporter of objective reporting... I've given up on them."
However,
Media Drop reports that on Don Imus' show this morning, the former president said "I have a confession to make. I actually like Maureen Dowd."
With retiring Sen. Zell Miller (D-GA) giving the keynote address at tonight's Republican National Convention,
Jonathan Hudec notes he's not the usual "up-and-comer" political parties like to spotlight at their convention. But to those young Republicans who hoped to get the nod -- like Barack Obama
got from the Democrats -- "history shows that giving the keynote address all but dooms a politician's own White House aspirations."
According to the
New York Times, there are 90 Bush relatives attending the convention this week in New York. From Doro Bush Koch to George P. Bush, the Bush clan gathers every four years to share "those little things handed from generation to generation -- the squared jaws and beaked mouths, the stiff aristocratic hug, the Republican nomination, the interchangeable last and middle names, the hostility to any tax, including syntax."
One thing they're probably talking about: Kitty Kelly's unflattering new book on the clan,
The Family: The Real Story of the Bush Dynasty.
Update: A source tells
Roger Simon says there are "at least five bombshells" contained in the Kitty Kelly book.
The Family : The Real Story of the Bush Dynasty
Buy from Amazon.com for just $20.37
Ryan Lizza says the Bush twins introduction of their father last night fell flat:
"I understand that self-deprecation can be a useful political tactic for elected officials. Bush's jokes about himself have always been incredibly disarming, for instance. But I was sort of shocked to see that the conceit of Jenna and Barbara Bush's speech tonight was that they are, well, dumb.
"The reason that self-deprecation works as a rhetorical device is because the person using it has developed at least some level of credibility that cuts against his or her caricature. But if the only thing people have heard about you is that you are a hard-partying, spoiled, not-so-bright, rich kid, well wouldn't it be more useful to tell them a different story about yourself, instead of reveling in your immaturity and ditziness?"
However,
Andrew Sullivan thinks differently: "I have to say I loved it - if only for its authenticity, for the sudden interruption of an actual reality into the sometimes surreal script of this convention."
Update:
Howard Kurtz says "I've been covering conventions a long time, and this might have been the weirdest moment since George McGovern gave his acceptance speech at 3 a.m."
Political Animal notes even conservatives hated them. "What a disaster. What an absolute disaster."
We said it
would happen. Washingtonienne (a.k.a. Jessica Cutler) is in
Playboy.
Editor's Note: Use discretion when clicking on the link above. The
press release shows no nudity.
"As the Republican National Convention focused on unity Tuesday," Illinois U.S. Senate candidate Alan Keyes (R) "lashed out at the vice president's gay daughter," the
Chicago Sun Times reports.
After Keyes told radio show hosts that homosexuality is "selfish hedonism," he was asked whether Mary Cheney is a "selfish hedonist." Said Keyes: "Of course she is. That goes by definition. Of course she is."
"Thus far, Keyes' week has been defined by friction with his state party chairwoman and the Illinois delegation, who feel they're playing second fiddle to Keyes' media campaign. Some have also expressed concerns about Keyes' beliefs, calling them too far right for Illinois."
New York City's strip clubs have not benefited from the arrival of the Republican National Convention, the
New York Times reports. As it turns out, the Big East college basketball tournament is about the only event in New York that can be reliably counted on to cause a big spike in club attendance.
"The word to Republican speakers at the national convention is that bashing Sen. John Kerry is fine," the
Washington Times reports. "Unlike Democrats, who put out word that they were editing speeches to tamp down on harsh criticism of" Bush at their convention, "the Republicans are not shying away from full-throttle engagement."
Nonetheless, the
New York Times notes that Republican officials "had to publicly repudiate the actions of a delegate who was handing out adhesive bandages marked with Purple Hearts to mock" Kerry's "war wounds."
Following up on yesterday's
report of a potential shake up in Sen. John Kerry's campaign,
CNN says Democratic leaders "are urging the presidential nominee to make changes in his staff before Labor Day... Sources say major changes could come at the campaign's highest level."
Meanwhile, the
Boston Globe notes Kerry "huddled with several top advisers" in Nantucket amid concerns that Bush "will leave his convention Friday with a better bounce in the polls than Kerry received after his Boston convention."
"In an effort to blunt any momentum Bush may receive from the convention, the Kerry campaign announced a $45 million-television advertising buy to run through the November election in 20 states."
Jason Thompson says political memorabilia collectors should keep an eye on
eBay today: "The printed posters distributed for delegates to wave during Schwarzenegger's speech -- a white-lettered blue sign screaming 'ARNOLD!' -- were the hot ticket item in the convention hall Tuesday night."
"Some delegates could be seen clutching multiple signs... while other delegates -- as well as hopeful Garden staffers, RNC workers and journalists -- carefully scanned the rows of seats on the floor for the souvenirs... Of course, the '4 More Years' signs, attached to 2-foot sticks for maximum effect, were there for the taking, as were the 'People Of Compassion' signs. But those 'ARNOLD!' posters were like gold."
As of this morning, however, none had made their way to
eBay.
August 31, 2004
"To those critics who are so pessimistic about our economy, I say, Don't be economic girly men!"
-- California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), quoted by the
New York Times, at the Republican National Convention.
"Mel Martinez scrapped and scraped his way to a surprisingly easy victory Tuesday in the bare-knuckled Republican Senate primary, while Democrat Betty Castor surprised no one by sauntering into her party's nomination," the
Miami Herald reports. Former HUD Secretary Martinez was the Bush administration's choice in the GOP primary.
Full results are available.
Charlie Cook looks at the recent polls: "It really is pretty amazing how fast the conventional wisdom can change."
Here are the latest state polls:
- Florida: Bush 48%, Kerry 44% (Strategic Vision)
- Ohio: Bush 48%, Kerry 42% (Strategic Vision)
- Georgia: Bush 55%, Kerry 36% (Strategic Vision)
- Wisconsin: Bush 48%, Kerry 46% (Strategic Vision)
- Washington: Kerry 50%, Bush 44% (Moore Information)
Update:
- Pennsylvania: Bush 47%, Kerry 45% (Strategic Vision)
- Michigan: Kerry 45%, Bush 42% (Strategic Vision)
- Iowa: Kerry 48%, Bush 47% (Strategic Vision)
- Minnesota: Kerry 47%, Bush 46% (Strategic Vision)
Editor's Note: Strategic Vision normally does work for Republican clients, but their previous polls have been generally in line with other non-partisan polls.
"Keenly aware that George Bush and Dick Cheney will never run again, a slew of Republicans are using the convention to start angling for the party's 2008 nomination,"
Knight Ridder reports.
The GOP convention "offers too tempting an opportunity for early posturing, what with all the party's power brokers in one place. While television cameras focus largely on the convention hall, would-be candidates are meeting with influential insiders at receptions and parties from breakfast until the wee hours."
The
Quad City Times notes Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and New York Gov. George Pataki are all scheduled to meet with the Iowa delegation this week.
NY1 News reports Giuliani told the Iowa delegation today he is considering a run for the White House in 2008.
Amazon.com opened its
Great Political Debate Store. "As we head toward an election of far-reaching significance, we've rounded up a number of titles on the controversial issues that will determine America's course. Read our
exclusive interviews, browse through our lists, and be sure to cast your vote."
CNN reports former Secretary of State James Baker will lead President Bush's debate preparation team. Sen. John Kerry picked
his team earlier this month.
"As the Bush campaign commands an exquisitely directed convention, the faltering Kerry campaign might be on the verge of a major shake-up," the
Wall Street Journal's Al Hunt reports. Aides says Kerry is "bouncing off the walls" in frustration.
The campaign "command structure" is "often frozen -- or at least tempered -- by too many chefs, a too-heavy reliance on polls or focus groups and an aversion to risks. As a result, the message often is muddled and the reaction to hard-hitting attacks from Republicans often is slow and unconvincing."
"A few very well-connected Democrats report something will occur in the next few days. One person who might assume more control is Joe Lockhart, a former press secretary to Bill Clinton and a respected public-relations figure, but one who has almost no experience in the high-stakes world of presidential campaigns. Another possibility: veteran Democratic politico John Sasso, currently at the Democratic National Committee."
Update: The
National Journal reports Kerry's campaign today "announced the official addition of several 'key new staff' for the race's final weeks. Joe Lockhart joins as a senior adviser, while Joel Johnson will be director of rapid response; other additions include Lori Denham, Karen Finney, Dr. Susan Rice and former Congressman Mel Levine. Rumor has it that the recent Swift Boat skirmishes are at least part of the reason behind the hires."
Update II:
Chuck Todd notes Marla Romash, spokeswoman for Teresa Heinz Kerry, is quitting the Kerry campaign for personal reasons.
Update III:
Chuck Todd and
CBS News have more on the possible shakeup.
After talking to two "Republican powers,"
Dan Rather gives us the heads up: "Keep your eyes and ears open for Mitt Romney's convention speech Wednesday night."
"Whatever it is, it 'may be the surprise of the convention,' one of the Republican honchos added."
Meanwhile, the
Providence Journal runs an interesting piece on Romney, his father and his political aspirations.
"The blogger who triggered yesterday’s
resignation of Rep. Ed Schrock (R-VA) by spreading rumors that he is gay promised 'there’s more to come,'"
The Hill reports.
The blog,
Blog Active, says the next target will be a member of Congress or highly-placed Bush administration official.
The
Boston Globe profiles Ralph Reed, who is "not only a key architect of the Bush-Cheney organization, he is among the Republicans who in recent years have employed traditionally Democratic tools to make the GOP competitive on the ground in elections."
"Technically, Reed is a volunteer chairman of the Bush-Cheney campaign in Florida and four other southern states. But his role is much broader, comparable to that of his Democratic counterpart, Michael Whouley, the Massachusetts operative who served as organizational troubleshooter in the Democratic presidential campaigns of Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and, this year, John F. Kerry."
James Carville has a new book out -- and it can be read in just five minutes.
Lu and the Swamp Ghost is the Democratic consultant's first children's book. The story portrays Carville's mother as a little girl who feeds a hungry swamp creature.
The
Washington Times notes "the book comes packaged with a CD read by Mr. Carville in his distinctive voice" to "make sure children hear the story with the correct inflections."
Lu and the Swamp Ghost
Buy from Amazon.com for just $12.57
The
Christian Science Monitor list the top ten surprises at the Republican National Convention, despite the GOP's "clever plan to stifle anger, resentment, excitement, or indeed any emotion whatsoever through what can only be described as a careful plan to lull the electorate into sufficient somnolence to allow the incumbent to slide to victory."
Ralph Nader "won't be on Missouri's ballot in November, after failing to appeal a ruling by the secretary of state" by Friday, the
AP reports.
"Nader still could submit paperwork to qualify as a valid write-in candidate. The deadline for that is Oct. 22, but even then, people would have to add him to their ballots to vote for him."
Chris Bowers provides a useful update of Nader's effort to get on state ballots thus far.
