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NEW! Read Michael Barone's retrospectives on over thirty years of the Almanac of American Politics

The Democrats' real problem
What a difference a couple of weeks make. Polling during and just after the Republican National Convention, Time and Newsweek have George W. Bush ahead of John Kerry 52 to 41 percent. Post-convention polls show Bush ahead 52 to 45 percent (CNN/ USA Today /Gallup), 49 to 42 percent (CBS), 47 to 43 percent (Fox News), and 52 to 43 percent (ABC/ Washington Post ). Post-convention polls in battleground states show similar results. Gallup shows Bush up 14 points in Missouri and 9 in Ohio, states he carried by 2 and 4 points, respectively, in 2000, and up 1 in Pennsylvania, which he lost by more than 4 points. Kerry is off the air in the battleground states of Missouri, Arizona, Arkansas, and Louisiana. It's too soon to say that this is the last sharp shift in the two candidates' standings. But it is a bigger shift than we have seen since John Kerry clinched the Democratic nomination on March 2. More...

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