December 31, 2002
I had a good run of prognostication last year, but I don't know whether I'll be able to repeat. Still, at the risk of looking silly in a couple months, I give you my predictions for the year to come. The one thing I won't make predictions about are specific types of terrorist attacks. It's not worth being right about that sort of stuff.
IRAQ:
This is the toughest one, so I'll start here. For months now I've been saying that we're not going to Iraq. Nevertheless, it's hard to ignore all the signs that we're finally starting some serious preparation for military action there. What to do? Do I join the crowd and predict the war that's looking more likely every day? Or do I stubbornly stick to the prediction I made on the first day of this blog?
For those who know me, it's an easy call. Stubborn to the core, I predict that the U.S. will not go to war in Iraq in 2003. Beyond that, I don't have a strong feeling about what's going to happen. Will Iraq come clean with some weapons and forestall an attack that way? Will Saddam be deposed from within, causing us to keep our powder dry? Will he voluntarily go into exile? Will the U.S. merely cave?
Hard to say. My gut is that Iraq will do just enough to convince the rest of the world that miliary action is not appropriate. Deposing Saddam from within seems the most likely way to accomplish that, but it's not the only way.
KOREA:
This one's easy. We'll back down. We'll give Korea something they want (talks, money, oil, food, etc.), and they'll pretend to play nice for a while. We will not do what needs to be done and bomb Korea's nuclear facilities, and they will not attack the South. Status quo.
Until... Korea will conduct a live nuclear test by the end of the year. After that, more handwringing, and little else.
AL QAEDA:
Osama will stay dead. We still won't have proof.
SAUDI ARABIA:
Despite continuing denunciations of the Jews and the Crusaders from Saudi clerics, our relationship with the Korrupt Kingdom will be be as 'solid' as ever. And no matter what Glenn thinks, Bush will not pay any significant political price for it.
IRAN:
Still no regime change there.
ISRAEL:
Yasser remains head of the PA a year from now. There will be upturns in Arab terrorism against Israel, and there will be occasional Israeli incursions into the West Bank and Gaza, but Israel will always back down under U.S. pressure. There will be additional 'progress' on the Bush 'Roadmap', but it'll be as big a farce as Oslo. Status quo.
SUPREME COURT:
Rehnquist will retire: O'Connor will stick it out. Alberto Gonzales will be nominated to fill Rehnquist's seat, and O'Connor will be nominated for Chief. Both will be confirmed. Conservatives will be woefully disappointed with Gonzales within a couple years. He's gonna make Souter look like Scalia.
If there is another vacancy, Miguel Estrada will get the nomination.
The Court will unanimously rule that there's a little-known hidden exception to the First Amendment says cross-burning isn't free speech.
A sharply divided Supreme Court will strike down the University of Michigan's affirmative-action program, but in a narrow way that leaves the core of Bakke intact and reaffirms that "diversity" is a compelling state interest allowing universities to continue to discriminate based on race.
U.S. ECONOMY:
This will be the year that the market recovers, but probably not until about the second half of the year. I predict that the S&P; 500 will close on December 31, 2003 at around 1200, the Dow at about 11,000.
Tivo stock will be above $8 per share.
United Airlines stock will be trading around $12 per share.
SPORTS:
The Cubs will finish the regular season with an N.L. Central best record of 92-70. They will advance to the NLCS, where they will lose to San Francisco.
The Chicago Bears will not make the playoffs, and coach Dick Jauron will be fired.
In March, Notre Dame will beat the Fighting Illini in an early round of the NCAA tournament. Notre Dame will lose the next game.
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY:
A human clone pregnancy will be announced. It will be the real deal this time. The clone will not be born before the end of next year.
There will be a mini media frenzy about the Segway Personal transport when amazon starts delivering them next July. By the end of the year, the Segway craze will be over.
Home DVD-burners and Personal Video Recorders will be the big tech gifts next Christmas.
By the end of the year, Dell Computer will be selling a Pentium 4 computer with a 5 GHz processor, 512 MB of Ram, a 100 GB hard drive, and an LCD monitor for $1500.
ENTERTAINMENT:
Britney Spears and Justin Timberlake will get back together. Then separate.
Aaron Sorkin, Robert Downey, Jr., and Winona Ryder will be arrested.
Robert Blake will not be convicted of the murder of Bonnie Lee Bakely -- probably because the trial won't have taken place yet.
POLITICS:
Either Don Rumsfeld or Colin Powell will be in the cabinet by the end of the year: not both.
An extension of unemployment benefits will be passed in January or February.
There will be a cut in payroll taxes.
PERSONAL:
I will get married to the most wonderful woman on the planet.
I will post wedding pictures to this site, and many readers will wonder what Laura could have been thinking.
As we close the book on 2002, it's time to take a look back at the various predictions I made over the past year. I'm pretty pleased with my record, overall.
March 24, 2002: The first day of this blog, and I started out with what, at the time, were some pretty contrarian predictions...
Anyway, in light of my current pessimistic mood regarding all things mid-eastern, I'm going to make a few predictions regarding the state of the mid-east at the end of 2002. When I turn out to be right, I'll call up these archives and gloat. Here they are:Middle-East prognostication is amazingly easy. Just imagine everything going wrong, and no big wars that would actually accomplish anything. You'll be right 90% of the time.1. The U.S. will not have made any significant military effort to remove Saddam Hussein.
Correct. Back in March, practically everybody thought we'd have done it by now.
2. Yasser Arafat will still be the head of the Palestinian Authority.
Yup. And with the recent cancellation of the elections that were promised for January, there's no sense that he's going anywhere soon.
3. No real progress will have been made in the Isralei-Palestinian conflict. You may read articles saying that we're in "The Tenet Process" or "The Mitchell Process" or some other damned process, but it'll all be as big a farce as Oslo was.
Right again. This time we're calling it "The Roadmap", but it's just the same old bullshit with a shiny new trademark.
April 2, 2002: "We're not going to Iraq."
If the President Bush can't even bring itself to call Yasser Arafat a terrorist because the Arab world wouldn't like it, does anybody really think he's going to have the balls to go after Saddam Hussein? Not in a million years. All the pundits and talking heads are saying that it's going to happen by fall.Gosh, I was charming back then. Still, it seems that I was pretty much on target, except for the endgame, which we haven't seen yet.[Heh heh. Correct, so far.]
Spoons is smarter than all of them put together, and he's telling you right now, it ain't gonna happen.
Here's what will happen. Eventually, the U.S. will start talking tough about Iraq again.
[Yes, but in retrospect, that wasn't much of a prediction, since we had started already.]
Just when it starts to look like something might happen, Iraq will go to the United Nations and agree to a supposedly comprehensive weapons inspection plan.
[Yes, although I didn't predict that'd we'd be the ones to go to the U.N. first. I should have, though.]
Now, everybody knows that weapons inspections are pointless. This administration has said several times already that it has no confidence in inspections because it's too easy to move things around quickly. They're absolutely right about that. However, the U.S. will have a change of heart.
[Yup, we sure did. Despite Cheney saying that inspectors were pretty much useless, we went to the U.N. and asked for exactly that. Morons.]
We will send in inspectors, we will announce that we've prevented Hussein from developing weapons of mass destruction, and Bush will get reelected in 2004.
[Yes, we sent in inspectors. We haven't announced that we've stopped Saddam yet, but Kofi Annan is doing so -- and it's still early.]
April 12-17, 2002: Here's a round-up (too long to reproduce here) on some predictions I made about Colin Powell's Mid-East trip last year. The results -- less than 100%, but decent. The one thing I was dead wrong on was believing that the lack of significant U.S. demands on Arafat would put an end to the silly, Panglossian, rope-a-dope theories here in the U.S. I blew that one. Having been proven wrong with respect to Arafat, the theory has merely been transferred to Saddam. Well, if at first you don't succeed....
May 4-6, 2002: Despite a herd of U.S. pundits claiming that France's Jean-Marie LePen would receive more than 30% of the vote, Spoons predcited a result of 19-21%. Actual result: LePen got 18%. Close enough?
June 26, 2002: "Arafat will be dead before the election next year." Well, the Keffiyehed one still lives, but he cancelled the election -- which I didn't see coming. I guess I've got another 12 months, or until the Pals decide to hold an election, to see if this one comes true.
July 22, 2002: I predicted that Diane E. was right in her belief conservative pundits were getting way ahead of themselves in predicting imminent regime-change in Iran. Diane and I were right. So far, so bad.
July 22, 2002: I predicted that there would not be a baseball strike. Correct.
July 29, 2002: "The Cardinals are gonna win the world series -- and yes, we're gonna have one this year." I was wrong about the Cardinals. They won their division, and advanced to the League Championship Series, but lost the penant to the Giants. The Giants, in turn, lost the series to the Angels.
September 5, 2002: I predicted an indictment of Steven Hatfill for the anthrax attacks by the end of that month. Didn't happen.
2002 Elections: In the Senate, I missed 3 -- Texas, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. In my home state of Illinois, my natural pessimism helped me call every election right. Democrats won everything, and by big margins.
That's all the major predictions I could find, and I'm really very pleased with my record. If anyone remembers anything else that I got wrong (or right), let me know and I'll add it to the list.
John Hawkins hosts a guest column by William Grim, who finds shocking sickening evidence that the German Volk haven't changed much since their Nazi past.
December 30, 2002
Martin Devon thinks we ought to have one:
What happens if Saddam suddenly chickens out? In theory, he could say to us, "hey, if you give me safe passage to Libya, and promise to leave me (and my pilfered billions) alone, I'll take my inner circle and get out of Dodge." What would we do? What should we do?I disagree. If you have a policy of giving dictators an escape hatch at the very last second, then you encourage dictators to push things until that very last second.I think we deal. We exchange him for a peaceful regime change. While I'd love to see him hang for his crimes against humanity, I'd offer him a deal and honor it. It is in the world's interest to allow dictators a way out. It would be the best of both worlds. No nuclear Iraq, no war. Wouldn't Sean Penn be surprised?
Better that dictators should learn that once they piss us off, there's no going back. Lesson: don't piss us off.
December 29, 2002
Here's a great reason to root for Iowa over USC in the Orange Bowl on January 2.
I'll leave it to you whether to root for lots of career-ending injuries on the USC side.
(Spotted by Bill).
December 28, 2002
BETTER LATE THAN NEVER, I SUPPOSE
Bill Quick is seeing signs of hope that we may finally be thinking about going to war with Iraq. I tend to agree with Bill that things are looking up, but I still don't think I'd put the chance of war at more than 50% yet. There are too many things Saddam can do at the last minute to avert it, and so many false allies who could throw a monkey in the wrench, as it were.
Still, if we do go soon, I'll be glad for it, even though (as Bill has previously written) it won't repair the damage that has been done by the delay.
Even a 'celebrity-american' gets it...
The other night I was watching Robin Williams on the Charlie Rose show. Among many screamingly funny riffs he told a joke about a Saudi Crown Prince phoning Bush:(Via Diane L, etcetera and so forth)."Mr. President, I was so sorry to hear about the terrible attack on your country."
"What attack?"
"Damn! I forgot about the 11 hour time difference..."
December 27, 2002
Archie Bunker and the Supreme Court
I been hearin' that one or two a dem old bastards on the Supreme Court is gonna retire pretty soon, heah, so I figger it's time ta start thinkin' about who we're gonna send up dere when da time comes.Offensive?Ya see, right now we gots two broads (one of 'em a Jew), one colored guy, an eye-talian, and five regular Americans. Now, if dat Chief Rehquist retires, we gotta replace him wit someone, but if we nominate anudder white sumbitch, the women's libbers and the pinkos are gonna raise a ruckus wit da cryin' and whinin an all dat gabage. The way I sees it, we need ta find one a dem minority fellas ta make 'em stifle it, but hopefully one dat knows how ta play ball, see?
I been hearin' a lot about dis Alberto R. Gonzales, kid. Ain't none of the crybabies gonna be able to call us bigots once we put a wetback on the Court, heh? Course, none of the udder judges are gonna have any hubcaps left on der limos, butcha can't please everybody!
Yeah, old Speedy Gonzales ain't a bad choice, but then again, they say that one of the broads might retire next. Aww Jeez. Dem liberals prob'ly gonna make us send up some queer, crippled oriental or something. Better than anudder broad, though. Last thing we need is a Supreme Court justice goin' to pieces every 28 days, right? The commies'll think we're a buncha fairies.
You bet.
So's this.
I've decided to use a permanent hotmail account to handle the flood (ahem) of mail that this site generates.
The new address is: spoonsblog@hotmail.com.
The old addy will soon be defunct.
Just a word to all those who offered to help me through my difficulties with my internet connection and home network. Thanks for all the offers, and I'm sorry I didn't get a chance to take any of you up on the help. As it happens, though, after weeks during which I had nearly given up in frustration, I gave it one more shot.
Lo and behold, everything suddenly decided to work.
At the moment, I'm blogging from bed.
Kemp on Iraq. Sheesh.
December 25, 2002
Tense Christmas for Irqi Christians
Well Duh.
Still, its hard to miss the irony that in Iraq of all places, Christians can practice their religion in relative freedom (Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz is a Christian), but in our ally Saudi Arabia, they're so fearful and disdainful of other religions that Christmas trees are forbidden, and selling Christmas cards can get you arrested.
MADISON, Wis. - An airline passenger was cited for disorderly conduct Tuesday after the plane's crew accused him of insinuating the pilot had been drinking.I can't find the link, but didn't we see an almost identical story a few months ago, with almost an identical ridiculous "heightened security" quote from the authorities involved?* * *
"My assumption is it was a flippant remark," [police officer Lt. Michael] Krembs said. "But in this day and age of heightened airport security, you just don't joke about stuff anymore."
Anyone remember?
December 24, 2002
I've no idea whether I'll get to the blog much over the holiday. If I don't see you all around, have a good one, and smoke 'em if you got 'em.
Hams, that is.
Nyuk nyuk nyuk.
December 22, 2002
Chicago Aldermen proudly pay gang members to get out the vote on election day.
I wish I had something clever to say about this story, but I don't. I'm just glad to have moved out of this sucking cesspool of a city.
December 21, 2002
St. Paul reports that the AP is already out in force out of likely Senate Republican leader Bill Frist.
Chicago Cubs radio broadcaster, former third-baseman, and all-around Chicago institution has recently lost his second leg to diabetes. He's apparently recovering well, and plans to be back in the broadcast booth next season. Santo has been a strong advocate and fundraiser for diabetes research for years, and has helped raise millions of dollars for for the cause. (Here's the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation's page, if you're interested).
Get well soon, Ron.
From CNN:
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) -- Former Sen. Frank Murkowski on Friday appointed his daughter, Republican state Rep. Lisa Murkowski, to serve the remaining two years of his term in the U.S. Senate.It sounds like Murkowski fille is well qualified for the position, and probably would have been on any Alaska governor's short list even if he weren't her father. Still, this sort of political nepotism leaves a bad taste in my mouth. It's one thing for a politician's kid to run for office, but to just get appointed by royal proclamation? I don't like it.Murkowski, who spent 22 years as a senator, resigned December 2 when he was sworn in as Alaska's governor.
As governor, he had the power to appoint his successor in the Senate.
From the AP:
A scandal involving allegations of rampant vote-buying and bribery has caused Ariel Sharon's ruling Likud to slide in the polls ahead of upcoming general elections.The moderate labor party. Uh huh.Likud remains far ahead of the moderate Labor Party -- and Sharon is still considered a shoo-in for prime minister -- but a daily dose of scandal over the past week, including talk of possible involvement of organized crime, has taken its toll.
December 20, 2002
A FULL DAY'S WORK, FOR A FULL DAY'S PAY
I've been a little slow getting back up to speed here (move, internet problems, yada, yada, yada), but today I have fully EIGHT new posts for you to read, despite the fact that (because of the fact that?) I am feeling quite under the weather and cannot sleep.
Enjoy.
Criminals arrested: rights groups outraged
Will somebody please get these damn losers outta my country?
Ummm, actually, I meant the A.C.L.U.
Left. Chester. Umbrella. Uniform. Nineteen. Marigold. Zebra.
In case you didn't understand the foregoing, there's a reason: I was speaking in racial code words.
But seriously folks, what a stupid, dishonest, destructive concept. The idea of 'code words' is nothing more than a way for the race hustlers to blame conservatives for things they have not said, did not mean, and do not believe.
I agree with Peggy Noonan that Lott should go, but shame on her for buying into this bogus -- and racist -- liberal paradigm.
I've predicted longer than anyone I know that we're not going to Iraq. Even as many say that war is almost here, I'm sticking to my view that one way or the other we're not about to see Gulf War II. Obviously, though, it's possible that I'm wrong -- in fact, I pray that's the case.
If, in the end, we do end up going to war with Iraq, I'm sure that I'll be treated to numerous articles and blog posts and comments saying, "See, Bush knew what he was doing all along!"
Poppycock.
Even if we do end up removing Saddam through military force, the President's Iraq policy has been an unmitigated disaster. Bill Quick lists some of the things we've accomplished:
1. We've established the principle that we will (must?) bribe self-interested or openly inmical nations for their permission to defend ourselves.That's less than half the list: be sure to read the whole thing.2. We've established the principle that the United Nations has a veto over any US use of force, even in self defense.
3. We've established the principle that the feelings of the Saudi princes are much more important than the safety of Americans, apparently because almost no Americans speak English as well as the Saudi ambassador to the US.
UPDATE: I've re-read Bill's piece and I have to say it's one of the better things I've ever read on the web. I surely do wish I'd written it.
Also, Stephen Green says Bill's wrong. Why do I get the feelin' these two fellas aren't gonna be invitin' each other over for tea any time soon.
The two fans who claimed ownership of Barry Bonds' record 73rd home run ball were ordered by a judge Wednesday to sell the ball and split the money, worth perhaps more than $1 million.What did the judge do? He could easily have made a case for either guy getting to keep the ball. If he'd said that the first guy never really had posession, and thus didn't own the ball, that'd be fine. If he'd said that the second guy only picked up the ball after it was knocked from the glove of its rightful owner, nobody would complain.Bonds' homer came on the last day of the regular season in October 2001, setting off a long court battle. Since then, the ball has been locked in legal limbo and a safe-deposit box.
Instead, the judge decided to do the one thing that was guaranteed to be wrong.
Judge Kevin McCarthy said that Alex Popov, who gloved the ball for an instant, and Patrick Hayashi, who ended up with the ball, have a legitimate claim and neither should get the ball outright.Apparently, the wishy-washy judge decided that making tough decisions was just more than he was up for that day (the poor dear), so he decided "It's everybody's ball! Hooray!""Their legal claims are of equal quality and they are equally entitled to the ball," McCarthy ruled. "The ball must be sold and divided equally between the parties."
Look, if the first guy never posessed the ball, then it was never his -- anymore than it belonged to any of the 40,000 other people in the stands that night who were there but never posessed the ball. In that case, it belongs to the guy who wound up with the ball, and it should be his free and clear. If, on the other hand, the first guy did catch the ball, making it his, then he can't possibly lose his property interest in it just because some hooligans knocked it out of his hand and another guy picked it up. If I get mugged on the street and drop my watch, and Glenn Reynolds picks it up, that doesn't mean that we have to sell it and split the proceeds.
Leave it to a mushy-headed San Francisco judge to decide that silly old "property rights" are just too golly gosh darn mean to form a basis for a judicial ruling.
The election-eve collapse tonight of a political marriage is seen likely to tip Thursday's dead-heat South Korean presidential race to a hawkish conservative who has vowed to end South Korea's "sunshine policy" of friendship toward North Korea.Washington Post, December 18, 1 p.m.The 11th hour political drama left Roh Moo Hyun, who reportedly had a slight edge in the polls, scrambling to try to salvage his candidacy after his remarks tonight that South Korea might be neutral if the United States fought North Korea.
Liberal Candidate Wins in South KoreaWashington Post, December 19, 1 p.m.
Roh Likely to Ease Dependence on U.S., Continue 'Sunshine Policy' With North KoreaA former labor lawyer riding a tide of public resentment toward the United States won election to be president of South Korea today in the latest signal of America's shrinking popularity overseas.
Roh Moo Hyun, 56, claimed a narrow victory in the presidential race, campaigning on a vow to draw at least symbolic distance between Washington and Seoul, traditionally one of the United States' most fiercely loyal allies.
Oops.
POLL: 67% of Palestinians want Suicide bombings to continue
At what point do we just write off the other 33%?
Better that 3000 Americans should die, than one Muslim be offended
That's the only way I see to read this story. (Via Instapundit).
Senate Republican Leader Trent Lott's political survival remained imperiled Thursday as aides to Sen. Bill Frist announced that the Tennessee Republican is weighing support for a challenge to Lott's post.National Review Online ran a piece on Wednesday arguing that Nickels was owed our thanks because he was calling for Trent Lott's head even though it would surely look like Nickels was merely positioning himself for a run at the leader's job himself. Despite the perverse sense that this made, my natural skepticism prevented me from really believing that Nickels was selflessly trying to Do the Right Thing, and repair some damage to his party. If the FoxNews report is correct, though, Nickels is an even better man than NRO suggested. Even though he's a long-time rival and natural successor to Lott, he's passing on the Leadership job because he believes that getting Lott out, and stoping the damage to the country and the Party, are more important than Nickels' own ambitions. I can't remember the last time a politician did something like that.Frist, 50, would consider running for the job if colleagues asked him to do so "for the sake of the Senate as an institution or the long-term agenda of the Republican Party," said an aide who asked not to be identified.
Fox News has also learned that Sen. Don Nickles of Oklahoma, Lott's longtime rival and former potential candidate for the leadership, will throw his support behind Frist.
Thank you, Senator Nickels.
December 17, 2002
IT'S exhilarating TO WATCH TERRORISTS DIE
You heard me.
If you agree, you won't want to miss this video, courtesty of Junkyard Blog and Blogs of War.
Of course, if we were really serious, we'd have blown up the mosque, but it's still fun to watch.
I moved.
What's Craig's excuse?
Don't worry, soon we'll be bombing his palaces, sending Predators armed with hellfire missiles to assassinate his kids and if we're really, really lucky, Donald Rumsfeld will personally blow Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz's brains out in front of a live televised audience. We're not moving 90,000 troops into Turkey because we like the food and the four aircraft carriers we're sending over there aren't going for the Iraqi cuisine. Some time in late Dec, Jan, or at the absolute latest Feb, we're going to blow the Holy Hell out of Iraq. When we do, it wouldn't surprise me if we had Bush administration officials still giving Saddam a chance to "change" even while the missile that sends him to Hell will still be in mid-air...I love reading posts like this one from John Hawkins. If John's wrong, I get to crow that I was right all along. If, on the other hand, John's right and I'm wrong, well, hey, dead Saddam.
It's win-win.
I almost cancelled my National Review subscription when I read James "I am not a baseball fan" Robbins shameful call to re-admit Pete Rose to baseball. Many Rose defenders can be excused for their gullibility, as they've never really read much about the case and therefore gullibly claim that there's no evidence that Rose bet on baseball. Robbins has no such excuse. He thinks Rose did bet on baseball, including games involving his own team -- but then blithely claims it's no big deal! (I'll doubt I'll ever trust Robbins' judgement on other issues after this, so appaling is his lack of honor and integrity as evidenced by this column -- it's that bad). I imagine that even few Rose defenders could read Robbins' column without squirming in their seats a bit.
Fortunately, Geoffrey Norman reclaims my subscription dollars, with today's anti-Rose (and anti-Robbins) column:
Everyone who plays, umpires, or merely follows major-league baseball � including those who do not know what constitutes a balk or couldn't explain the infield-fly rule � understands the rule on gambling. It is that clear. Gamble on a baseball game and you are banned for a year. Bet on a game involving your own team � no matter which way you bet � and you are out for life.
The rule is posted on the clubhouse wall and drummed into everyone involved in big-league ball. The reason should be obvious but, even if it isn't, the rule could not be less ambiguous. Pete Rose bet on his own team. He was banned. Would that all rules were enforced so robustly. But, then, maybe not. We might be in the sixth year of a Gore presidency* * *
It is not, in the end, injustice that people who support Rose are opposed to, but harsh justice. That's pretty consistent with the spirit of the times. If spoiled New York socialites get 30 days for intentionally running over people, then any lifetime punishment � including appearing in public in funny hair, like Rose, probably seems excessive.
If the baseball suits cave on this one, they will be doing one more injury to baseball. Rose will come back, be inducted to the Hall of Fame, and probably manage again. The only thing that will have changed will be that he won't be calling his bookie on the clubhouse phone. Now, he can use his cell.
December 16, 2002
FLASH: Anti-semitism spotted on College Campus!
These accounts of overwhelming anti-semitism at America's universities -- including (especially?) among the professors -- are becoming so commonplace that they're beginning to read like dog-bites-man. Still, John Hawkins has a story that still manages to amaze.
Well, most of you missed my birthday, but there are still... eight more shopping days until Christmas. While I'm simultaneously proud and embarrassed by how many items on Rodger's list I already own, there are still plenty of choices for the discriminating shopper.
The air compressor, Leatherman tool, and remote-control helicopter are particularly attractive.
Bill's as pessimistic about our government's resolve vis a vis Iraq as I am.
An orgy of pessimism is today's must read.
The part at the beginning about the steady erosion of education in the U.S. (due largely to the influence of teachers unions) is the most crucial part, since it's what makes the rest of Stein's parade of horribles possible.
(*angry tangent approaching. The following is pure venting. Bail out now*)
You know, I fully support the idea of unions for silly professions like actors, or restaurant and hotel workers, or government bureaucrats. Let them futz around with their government sanctioned extortion and theft: what's the harm? But for God's sake let's not let unionized workers do anything important, okay? Cops, firemen, air traffic controllers, and most of all, teachers, should never be allowed to develop strong unions. Their jobs are too important to the fabric of the country to let them be ruined by thugs and theives. Okay, First Amendment, yada yada yada. Fine. They have the right to join together and unionize, and they should. But the First Amendment doesn't require all the bullshit protections and special priviledges that unions get under the law. No place of employment should be permitted to be a closed shop, and no one should be compelled to join a union, or pay 'fair share' fees to one, if they don't want to. No employer, public or private, should be forced to 'bargain' (as that term is used in labor law -- which has nothing to do with the meaning of that word in the real world) over any issue. An employer should be free to say, "Take it or leave it" without being hauled before the NLRB. If the terms of the employer's offer are bad enough, no employee will take it. If, on the other hand, the terms are good enough that there's an employee who will take it, then union bureaucrats shouldn't have the power to stop them.
December 15, 2002
I can't update my web-poll at right (internet problems, yada yada), but I'm curious...
Does anybody out there still think we're going to Iraq? I never have and still don't.
Putting Lott's comments in perspective....
After all, he could have said this.
Spotted chez LGF.
For the record, I really have been internet deprived over the past two weeks. Even e-mail has been hit-or-miss. In other words, not only have I not been writing my blog, I haven't been reading other peoples', either. Sorry if I missed any interesting discussions or shout-outs.
"The slimy nexus between sloppy liberal thinking and slimy liberal politics"
That's our phrase of the day here at TSE.com. And if I'd read this Jonah Goldberg column, or this National Review Editorial, I might not have bothered to write the Lott item, below.
The best thing about being away from the blog during (most of) the past two weeks has been that I haven't had to write about L'Affaire Lott.
Just to be on record, though....
1. I don't for a second think that Lott's comments were actually intended to be an endorsement of segregation. I think Lott's remarks were an off-the-cuff near-eulogy to a fossilized old politician. I think that even most of Lott's critics know this: if they really believed he was pining for segregation, they'd call for his ouster from the Senate, not his resignation from the Republican leadership.
2. Notwithstanding #1, Lott should have known better, and never should have made his remarks.
3. Nothwithstanding #1 and #2, Lott could have walked away from this train wreck with a prompt, forceful, and sincere apology and explanation.
4. Lott's failure to understand #3, along with his failure to appreciate #2, show him to be politically tone deaf and a poor choice to lead the GOP in the Senate.
5. The GOP will be better off with Lott out of the leadership, but only marginally so. What the party gains in having Lott off the front pages will be balanced by the fact that (to mix a metaphor) the Race Grievance Industry will smell blood in the water. This month it's a Senator wishing happy birthday to an erstwhile segregationist; next month it'll be forcing a White House advisor to resign from Augusta... oh wait.
Bottom line -- The most important reason I want Lott to go, aside from the fact that I've never much cared for him (by the way, isn't it amazing how many people are saying that these days?), is that by his political idiocy he has given the other side an opportunity to make the charicature resonate. Today, the face of 'racism' in the Republican party is Trent Lott. I'll hold him up against Cynthia McKinney, or Sheila Jackson Lee, or Al Sharpton any day. Still, because Lott's an idiot, we've now had more than a week of stories about the GOP's "racism" problem. That's not just gonna cost us votes in 2004, it's gonna make it that much harder for the Republicans to win legislative battles whenever the Democrats can spin the issue as race-related. Lott has let himself become a liability to his party. He ought to do the right thing and step down from the leadership.
I'm back.... (Internet edition)
Well, I've been in the new house for about two weeks now, although furniture (including computer) have only been here a week. In fact, my computer isn't even set up yet -- I'm writing this from Laura's.
We've had a bit of trouble getting our new internet connection set up. First, they gave us a cable modem that was completely fried. Wouldn't even light up when I plugged it in. Then, when they sent the tech to give us a new one, he took it upon himself to set up our system for us -- blowing out all of Laura's saved e-mail in the process. Fortunately, I was able to get it all back using system restore, but that meant I had to re-do the internet settings myself.
Now we're having problems setting up our home network. Near as I can tell, our internet company is trying to get an extra $5/month out of us for each computer we set up. They do this by having incredibly draconian authentification measures when the computer signs on. Hell, when I just try to use Laura's computer using a different profile it won't let me access the internet. I had visions of setting up a home network that not only let me wire up both Laura's and my desktops, but would also let me use my laptop wirelessly throughout the house. Looks like that may remain a pipe dream. I'm hoping I can get the mail order company to accept a return of the nondefective router and PC card I bought, but I'm not optimistic.
For now, I'll just use Laura's computer for the net. I'll work up the nerve to try to set up the network again in a few days, although the last time I tried I ended up disabling access for Laura's computer, too. If I want to keep the peace, I won't do that again.
December 12, 2002
Thank you for continuing to hold. All bloggers are currently helping other customers. Your call is very important to us. Please continue to hold....
Blogging to resume over the weekend, along with details of what I've been up to.
I promise.
(P.S. This assumes, of course, that the next cable modem my new ISP gives me isn't broken like the last one).
December 04, 2002
I'm so glad that I've left this all behind.
Iraq blocks weapons inspectors
In a surprise visit to one of Saddam's palaces [yesterday], the weapons inspectors were physically blocked from entering for at least 10 minutes � more than enough time to tip off those who needed the head's up. The situation was reminiscent to one several years ago, when inspectors reported being held up at the front of a building, while witnessing trucks being loaded in back of the location. And when the weapons inspectors yesterday did finally enter the premises, they cruised through the palace in a mere hour and a half � clearly not enough time for a thorough sweep.Why didn't I hear about this on the evening news?
I frequently hear from my liberal friends that war should be a last resort, and that we must first give the inspectors time to do their jobs.
My liberal friends who say this are not very bright.
When Saddam gives us his "What, me weapons?" declaration this weekend, and he says that he has no weapons of mass destruction, that will be our very last chance to declare Iraq to be in material breach, and to go to war to disarm the country and kill the Iraqi President. If we don't do it then, we'll be a the mercy of U.N. inspectors who are steadfastly determined not to find anything. We might as well call them up and tell them to call home.
They're probably costing us a fortune.
HAVING A WONDERFUL TIME, WISH YOU WERE HERE
I'm well into my first week out of the rat race of Chicago. The new house is great, even though it's still empty. I moved in with little more than a couch, a TV, a suitcase, and a cat. After picking up a jar of peanut butter and a loaf of bread at the store, I basically had all the essentials of life taken care of. Well, almost....
Laura doesn't arrive until Saturday.
My initial impressions of Champaign/Urbana are strongly favorable. Almost everything is at least 10-20% cheaper. I bought gas the other day for $1.21 a gallon. It's cliche to say it, but the people here are MUCH nicer, on average -- especially people in service industries. I went to PETsMART the other day (to buy canned cat food lids, if you must know), and couldn't find what I was looking for. Against my better judgement, I decided to ask a store employee where to look. I wasn't prepared for the response: the guy actually smiled at me, and said "follow me." He then took me directly where the product was located and explained the different varieties available. After I had made my selection, he asked if there was anything else I needed. I admitted that I was also interested in looking at cat doors, and he whisked me away to another aisle, and patiently explained the benefits of each of the different models they had, and told me of other models that I could find on the company's web site.
In Chicago, my initial request would likely have met with a grunt and a vague gesture to a different aisle... probably the wrong one.
Work here is great so far, too. The work itself is interesting, and the hours are sane. The people are mostly Chicago transplants who left The City for many of the same reasons I did, so we all get along well. They've got me set up with a really nice big office, which they're redecorating for me, an enormous old desk, and a sweet Dell laptop for research and writing. My new secretary -- who I got to help choose and hire -- starts next week. The money is not Chicago money, but then again, I don't have to pay for a Chicago lifestyle anymore (the mortgage on my 3-bedroom house is several hundred dollars less per month than the rent I paid on my 1-bedroom high-rise apartment. Here, I pay $20/month for parking at work. In Chicago, I paid $190/month for parking at home. I can't wait to figure out how much my auto insurance is gonna drop.
As I've said, I don't have a computer set up at home yet, so blogging is a bit slow. I'm over at the soon-to-be-in-laws' place for dinner this evening (Chicken a la King -- delicious), and they're letting me use their computer to catch up on the blogosphere a bit. I'll post now and then as I'm able, but regular blogging should resume by early next week.
Stay tuned....
December 01, 2002
Let's all pretend to be suprised.
Can we PLEASE start bombing somebody already?