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Email Eric Lindholm: MadSwede10 -at- aol -dot- com
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Wednesday, September 22, 2004
W Wows Wisconsin Women I sense a theme. From an ABC Poll showing President Bush with a double-digit lead among likely voters in Wisconsin: There's a gender gap among registered voters in Wisconsin — Bush has a 17-point lead among men, while Kerry has a slight four-point edge among women. But most women as well as most men (albeit by smaller margins), trust Bush over Kerry to handle terrorism, and say Bush is a stronger leader and has taken clearer stands on the issues.The gender gap is shaping up to be the story of Election 2004. Update - Another Wisconsin poll: Bush up by 14% (!) among registered voters. My name is Eric and I’m a political junkie (just like him!) – Yes, I’m going to post on the “I-4 Corridor Poll” from central Florida. I need help. I-4 Corridor: Bush 51% - Kerry 38% Tampa Bay: Bush 49% - Kerry 39% Central Florida: Bush 53% - Kerry 37% Good news from Syria – “This could signal Damascus' willingness to stand down from its non-cooperative stance toward the United States -- yet another example of the immense geopolitical shift in the region resulting from the U.S. ouster of the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq.” Earning my punditry stripes This past weekend, I wrote: “I have been saying for years that Terry McAuliffe is the greatest gift to the GOP. He moved up the timetable for the Democratic primaries and the party lunged at non-screamer John Kerry. Now the transparently inept Kerry campaign represents the Democratic Party as a whole and Americans are turning away. Thank heaven for Terry McAuliffe.” Today, Dick Morris writes in “Kerry’s confused campaign”: “How did the Democrats end up in such a mess? Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe is to blame. It was he who decided to frontload the primaries to produce an early winner. Kerry got the nomination without any real audition. There was never a chance to road-test his candidacy or even to refine his message on a national stage.” Advantage: Viking Pundit! Speaking of women – From a brand-new NBC/WSJ poll: “Still, the survey has some troubling numbers for Kerry as he tries to close Bush's narrow lead: Female voters aren't flocking to the Massachusetts senator as they have to past Democratic candidates, and a solid majority of overall voters believes he doesn't have a message, or doesn't know what he would do if elected.” The poll of likely voters shows a 50%-46% split in Bush’s favor. Women wuv W The NY Times has an article today about how President Bush is doing surprising well among women voters, possibly because “security moms” are shifting their votes to the candidate perceived to be better on national security. Did they title the article: “Bush makes inroads with female voters?” How about “Security fears bring women into the GOP camp?” Nope. Incapable of hiding the bias for their candidate, the NY Times titled the article “Kerry in a struggle for a Democratic base: Women.” Writing in New York Metro (hat tip to Arts & Letters Daily), Naomi Wolf believes that Kerry is losing women voters in part because Teresa makes him look like a paperboy on an allowance: Teresa Heinz Kerry’s speech [at the DNC] , which all but ignored her husband, did more to emasculate him than the opposition ever could. By publicly shining the light on herself rather than her husband, she opened a symbolic breach in Kerry’s archetypal armor. Listen to what the Republicans are hitting Kerry with: Indecisive. Effete. French. They are all but calling this tall, accomplished war hero gay.Ouch. Kerry makes his position clear…to nobody Considered alternate title: “One position with a thousand clauses.” Try as he might, Senator Splunge continues to confound on Iraq. The Boston Globe put on a brave face with “Kerry looks to clarify stance, views on Iraq” but the article catalogues all the contradictory statements he’s made over two years. Tony Blankley dubbed Kerry “The Massachusetts drifter” At any given moment John Kerry sounds decided, resolved, adamant and powerfulin his convictions. But just as the appeasers against whom Churchill railed seven decades ago, Mr. Kerry soon undecides his decisions, revokes his resolution, drifts away from his adamance, liquifies his solidity and gelds the potency of his previous conviction.And Slate piles on with this snarky title: “Kerry answers questions! The press still doesn’t understand his position on Iraq.” Quote of the Day: “If it had been us, we would have been crucified.” – Rupert Murdoch of Fox News fame, commenting on the CBS Rathergate scandal. Chip & Kim win the Amazing Race – I have nothing against them, but Chip carried this “team” the entire way and they benefited from dumb luck by gaining a faster flight when the other teams’ flight was delayed. Great race, though. Looking forward to the next one. Tuesday, September 21, 2004
The Kerry campaign train wreck With input from a dozen more advisors, John Kerry has settled on a strategy of criticizing the administrations’ policy in Iraq. And as George Will notes today, there’s much to criticize: spiraling violence in Baghdad and Fallujah, terrorist beheadings of Americans, and an instability that will make elections difficult if not impossible. But Kerry continues to suffer under the same misconception that has hobbled his campaign from the start. He believed, and apparently continues to believe, that the election will be a referendum on President Bush’s leadership and that he only needs to present himself as a reasonable alternative. But as the inexorable slide in Kerry’s poll numbers attests: you can’t beat something with nothing. Kerry’s aggressive new attack is an extension of this misconception. It is heavily laden with condemnation, but devoid of solutions. And it’s not enough to repeat – endlessly – that you have a “plan” when that plan is unworkable and untethered to reality. USA Today responded to Kerry’s speech with this headline: “Kerry confronts Bush on war with murky solution.” The ultimate question for both men, of course, is what should we do now? On that point, the solutions offered Monday by Kerry are as unconvincing as Bush's claim that U.S. forces are making progress in stabilizing the country.The Washington Post wrote: “Experts say solutions may be unrealistic”: "Kerry lays out nice suggestions but I have no reason to assume they'd work any better, in the sense that there's no sign that the international community is willing to contribute to stabilizing Iraq or helping with security even if there is a leadership change in Washington," said Judith Yaphe, a former CIA Iraq expert now at the National Defense University.Jed Babbin in the American Spectator was (ahem) less nuanced about Kerry’s “plan”: The four-point plan for Iraq John Kerry outlined in his Monday speech is a concatenation of wishful thinking, defeatism, and moral obtuseness. And -- most importantly -- Mr. Kerry's goal is one to bring our troops home, not to win. His only idea is to talk the U.N. and NATO into taking the whole mess off our hands so we can withdraw our troops.Kerry had a press conference today in response to President Bush’s speech to the United Nations. I heard it on the radio and the humorous part (for me) was that the reporters’ questions were inaudible; you could only hear Kerry’s response. No matter! Every answer centered on magically convincing our “traditional allies” to help out in the rebuilding effort. There is no plan “B.” Furthermore, after months of vacillation, this insincere thrust towards a relevant position on Iraq smacks of political desperation. At the core, Kerry’s plan is nothing more than a cynical talking point for the remainder of the campaign – as a solution, it is nothing. Florida revisited – One overlooked aspect of the Florida 2000 recount mess was that when the networks called the state for Gore before the polls were closed in the Florida panhandle, thousands of potential Bush voters turned away from the polls in dejection. By John Fund’s accounting in his new book, the gap between Bush and Gore could have been 7,500 – 10,000 votes instead of a razor-thin 527 votes. Kerry wants to lose – On “Live with Regis and Kelly” this morning, Senator Splunge said: “The big hang-up was George Bush wanted to get life lines, you know, so he could call somebody.” Good one! It looks like Kerry’s trying to help out the Bush campaign team by lowering expectations for the debate. Then all Bush has to do is avoid any major gaffes and he’ll “win.” Thanks, Senator! Campaign finance reform is going to pot - literally From the Boston Globe: “Rich activists, hoping to sway voters, give vast sums to 527s – Critics sue, allege FEC has failed to enforce law.” Much of it is old hat: now that soft money donations are limited, wealthy contributors are pouring cash into 527 advocacy groups. But what makes the article a hoot is that one major 527 contributor really loves the ganja: Peter B. Lewis is one of America's most colorful billionaires. He is chairman of Cleveland's 26,000-employee Progressive Insurance Corp., owns one of the world's largest yachts, and is a major backer of efforts to decriminalize marijuana.Asked to comment on his contributions, Mr. Lewis stated “the Dude abides” then searched through his desk drawer for some Doritos. Monday, September 20, 2004
Channeling Ian Faith  From “This is Spinal Tap”: Marty: “The last time Tap toured America, they where, uh, booked into 10,000 seat arenas, and 15,000 seat venues, and it seems that now, on the current tour they're being booked into 1,200 seat arenas, 1,500 seat arenas, and uh I was just wondering, does this mean uh...the popularity of the group is waning?”From the NY Times “Kerry pulls ads from some states as spending is limited”: Tad Devine, a chief strategist for Mr. Kerry, said the campaign's diminished presence on television in certain states should not be construed as a sign of faltering."It's not a big college town." Surround Illinois! The Hedgehog Report has the latest from the blue states and it’s not a pretty sight if you’re for Kerry. New Mexico? Oregon? Iowa? (confirmed by Gallup!) Wow. Where was Kerry? In a gambit devoid of all sense of irony, John Kerry has decided to criticize President Bush on the war in Iraq. Forget about Kerry’s contradictory positions on Iraq, or his otherworldly statements on Meet the Press. Put aside the sheer chutzpah of this desperate tactic to (now) take a focus group-tested position on this critical issue. Remember this: John Kerry was once a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee – a group uniquely positioned to review sensitive information and act as a balance to the Executive branch. From 1993 to 2001, John Kerry missed 76% of all the scheduled meetings of the Senate Intelligence Committee. John Kerry failed to perform his most basic duties as a Senator, but now he wants to be President. Like I said: sheer chutzpah. [Cross-posted on Blogs for Bush] Chris Suellentrop of Slate doesn’t think that John Edwards was the most helpful pick for Kerry: “But on Nov. 3, Edwards will be judged not by how many places he turned blue but how many he made a paler red.” Judging by the latest polls, it won't be many. Just making stuff up This may shock some people, but it looks like the NY Times – the “Paper of Record” – might have shaded the truth a little bit today: While the polls fluctuate, the Democratic National Committee is keeping the lights on with minimal buying in some states - notably Colorado, where polls now show Mr. Kerry running strong, and Missouri - to make it easier for Mr. Kerry to re-enter later.Huh? “Running strong?” If the Times is trying to suggest that Kerry is surprisingly competitive in Colorado, it should say so. Instead, that line gives the impression that Senator Splunge is leading in the Rockies, when he most definitely is not. "Granny does your dog bite? No child no" - Today, on XM radio, I heard "The Devil Went Down to Georgia" for the first time in years. And I repeated the lyrics like a machine. Isn't that weird? Sunday, September 19, 2004
Kerry Vote Watch Trivia question: Why won't John Kerry resign his Senate seat since it's obvious he has no intention of performing any of his Senatorial duties through Election Day? Answer: He'll need a job after November 2nd. Days worked this session: 4 Missed vote percentage: 167/184 = 91% Negative coattails From the WashPost: “Democrats reassess prospects to win House” Democrats' hopes of regaining the House majority this fall -- never bright at best -- appear increasingly dim, in part because of Sen. John F. Kerry's lackluster campaign performance over the past six weeks, numerous analysts say.I have been saying for years that Terry McAuliffe is the greatest gift to the GOP. He moved up the timetable for the Democratic primaries and the party lunged at non-screamer John Kerry. Now the transparently inept Kerry campaign represents the Democratic Party as a whole and Americans are turning away. Thank heaven for Terry McAuliffe. President Bush’s “stock” price on TradeSports has now cracked 70% likelihood of re-election, while Kerry’s is diving below 30%. Of course - Actual headline from today’s Boston Globe: “Kerry courting both sides on gun-control issue” Saturday, September 18, 2004
Red states remain steadfastly scarlet From MSNBC: “Polls show Bush faring well in states he narrowly won in 2000” – “New polling data suggest that Sen. John Kerry has made little headway with voters in five states that President Bush narrowly won in 2000.” “Little” is a polite way to say “no.” The breakdown (Bush-Kerry percentages): Arizona: 50%-39% Missouri: 48%-41% Nevada: 50%-45% New Hampshire: 49%-40% Ohio: 49%-42% West Virginia: 45%-44% And there’s this: “Another strikingly insignificant factor in the voters’ decisions is the mêlée over what both Bush and Kerry did during the Vietnam War era.” Obscure song roundup Here, for no particular reason (other than to get away from politics for a moment), are ten great songs that you’ve probably never heard of: “Curbside Prophet” – Jason Mraz “Come to Love” – Matthew Sweet “(Down at) Papa Joe’s” – The Dixiebelles “Selfless, Cold and Composed” – Ben Folds Five “Get Over It” – OK Go “The Fall of the World’s Own Optimist” – Aimee Mann “Wind Me Up” – Fastball “Nation of Shopkeepers” – Graham Parker “Philosopher’s Stone” – Van Morrison “The Lighthouse” – The Gibson Brothers This may be part of a continuing series of rummaging through my CD collection. CBS staffers love the Dems From the NY Post’s Page Six: Rather’s crew backs Dems WITH Dan Rather and CBS under fire for broadcasting what seem to be fake National Guard documents in a story slamming President George W. Bush, PoliticalMoneyLine.com probed the political contributions made by CBS News staffers. Turns out that Rather's minions are overwhelmingly Democratic. CBS News-ers have donated $17,050 to federal candidates and political action committees since 1982. Of that amount, $10,800 was for Democrats and the DNC; $3,500 went to Lenora Fulani's wacky New Alliance Party; and only $2,750 went to the GOP.That’s right: among CBS staffers, the GOP received less money than the New Alliance party. But remember: journalists have a super-human ability to put bias aside and report the news with absolute objectivity. The liberal cocoon – Mickey Kaus notes that the NY Times story on their own poll can’t hide their panic. For example, why is the headline “Kerry trails Bush by 8% among registered voters” instead of “Bush leads Kerry by 9% among likely voters”? And so on. Fate smiles upon me! It looks like there are still problems with Blogrolling, but through some dumb turn of luck, Viking Pundit is sitting, frozen, at the top of most lists for maximum exposure. Cool. Friday, September 17, 2004
Bush up by 8% in NY Times/CBS “News” poll What do you get when you combine the most liberal newspaper in America with the most biased network on television? Why it’s the New York Times/CBS News Presidential Race poll! Sadly, they couldn’t forge the results: “Kerry Trails Bush by 8 Points in New Poll and Faces Obstacles” In one particularly troublesome sign for Mr. Kerry, a majority of voters said he was spending too much time attacking Mr. Bush and talking about the past, rather than explaining what he would do as president. By contrast, half of the registered voters said Mr. Bush had offered a clear vision of what he wanted to do in a second term. That finding, combined with an [sic] rising unfavorable view of Mr. Kerry, underlines the complicated strategic challenge the Massachusetts senator confronts as he tries to attack Mr. Bush without alienating voters put off by negative campaigning.The 50%-42% lead is among registered voters; for likely voters, the gap widens to 51%-42%. The telephone poll was conducted from Sunday through Thursday. [Cross-posted on Blogs for Bush] The GOP elephant charges forward President Bush is playing offense, driving deep into the blue states. From the WashPost: “President Ventures to Democratic Territory” Minnesota and Wisconsin, which Bush lost by 5,709 votes, have been trending Republican for at least eight years and White House strategists believe they can turn them by targeting suburbs, along with rural areas that used to be solidly Democratic, with Bush's promises of a muscular foreign policy, preservation of traditional values and attempts to lower taxes.Meanwhile, a new Strategic Vision poll has Bush up in two other blue states: Pennsylvania (49%-45%) and Iowa (48%-47%). The problem was Saddam A new report from the Iraq Survey Group reveals that no WMDs have been found in Iraq. However, the report also indicates that Saddam Hussein was just biding his time until the inspectors packed up: Drafts of a report from the top U.S. inspector in Iraq conclude there were no weapons stockpiles, but say there are signs the fallen Iraqi President Saddam Hussein had dormant programs he hoped to revive at a later time, according to people familiar with the findings.What would have been the point of giving the inspectors more time (what, twelve more years)? Hussein was always the greatest threat to Iraq and the region. Also, a long report on Fox News reveals that Hussein’s connections with Al-Qaeda may have been more extensive than believed, thanks to the United Nations Oil-for-Food Kerry’s doomed From MSNBC, here’s Tim Russert of “Meet the Press”: MSNBC: "There are only 45 days until Election Day. Is that enough time for John Kerry to make that turnaround?"Emphasis added. As Charles Krauthammer notes today, Senator Splunge has been so inconsistent and incoherent on critical issues that there’s “Nowhere Left to Flop.” And Jonah Goldberg wonders if Kerry’s weather vane shifts not because of the prevailing winds of the polls but because of his perception of events: “In this scenario what he calls "nuance" is actually an acute inability to grasp that today's headlines do not automatically corrupt yesterday's decisions or tomorrow's goals.” Nicely put. Free-fall – For what it’s worth, John Kerry’s “stock” on the Iowa Electronic Market is now at its lowest price since they started tracking. Thursday, September 16, 2004
Crusher Earlier today, Rich Lowry wrote: “I'm hearing that the new Gallup number is going to have Bush up BIG” His source was not wrong: “A Gallup poll being released Friday has Bush up 54-40 in a three-way matchup, with Ralph Nader at 3 percent.” Update: USA Today says it’s a 13% lead among likely voters – 55%-42%. And how about this: The boost Bush received from the Republican convention has increased rather than dissipated, reshaping a race that for months has been nearly tied. Kerry is facing warnings from Democrats that his campaign is seriously off-track.Perhaps more advisors are needed. Rathergate: Anything goes if you’re guilty I’ve been steering clear of the CBS memo scandal (except for my little song parody) because so many other bloggers are covering it 24-7. (The prevailing wisdom is that it’s hurting John Kerry.) But I’m shocked at CBS’s position that the memos were “accurate but not authentic.” Maybe I’m stretching here, but doesn’t this position allow for a tacit approval of evidence planting/tampering by the police? After all, if you know a criminal is guilty, what’s the harm of planting incriminating evidence if it will speed up the wheels of justice in the trial and/or punishment phase (i.e. a quick plea-bargain). The sliver of rationale for such an action seems parallel to the CBS position. The only difference I can see is that a law officer who used false evidence – no matter what the reason – would be punished. Black, white, Hispanic – Crush Kerry notes that John Kerry can pander to any demographic group, using the same speech. George Will nails Dan in the conclusion to an article criticizing Kerry: "On the second night of the Republican convention, Rather, perhaps determined to use some canned ad libs no matter how inapposite reality made them, declared that Arnold Schwarzenegger's speech had "slapped [Bush's] opponent, Senator John Kerry, around like a hockey puck." The number of times Schwarzenegger mentioned Kerry: zero." Ted Kennedy’s boondoggle Cost for the Big Dig: $14.6 billion (with a “B”). From the Boston Globe: “Artery tunnel springs a leak – Traffic snarled; Big Dig closes lanes, seeks cause, aims for full reopening.” Water gushed into the Central Artery's northbound tunnel for hours yesterday from a small breach in the eastern wall, backing up afternoon rush-hour traffic for miles and leaving Big Dig officials at a loss to explain where the water was coming from and what had caused the leak.But don’t worry, because Boston officials have high-tech methods to analyze and solve the problem: Officials and engineers were so uncertain about the origin of the water that some tasted it. The likely source, they said, was groundwater, because that portion of the tunnel sits 110 feet underground.Natch. Unbelievable scumbags  Three-year-old Sophia Parlock cries while seated on the shoulders of her father, Phil Parlock, after having their Bush-Cheney sign torn up by Kerry-Edwards supporters on Thursday, Sept. 16, 2004, at the Tri-State Airport in Huntington, W.Va. Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards made a brief stop at the airport as he concluded his two-day bus tour to locations in West Virginia and Ohio. Go ahead, Democrats, let's hear the stories about how the Bush people pulled a protestor's hair or shuffled an anti-war person away from a GOP event. Now tell me this isn't the lowest thing you've ever seen. You people are really consumed with hate. Here's the AP link to the picture. This seems like good news: "Saudis Take a Small Dose of Democracy - Results of Local Ballots May Determine Whether Electoral Experiment Is Widened" Question: do you think this would have come about if not for American pressure? Of course, Saudi women can't drive themselves to the polls, but still. The legacy of McCain-Feingold It’s come to this: Two Washington-based lawyers supporting President Bush’s re-election have registered an advocacy group, Football Fans for Truth, as a Section 527 organization allowed to accept unlimited political donations. They plan to publicize Kerry’s recent sports misstatements such as his reference to the home of the Green Bay Packers as “Lambert Field” instead of Lambeau Field.Whatever. He so smart: Viking Pundit graduated from 35th best college in North America and the 44th best in the world (Hat tip to Joanne Jacobs). Democrats, avert your eyes! – Slate’s “Election Scorecard” puts the electoral count at 329 for Bush and 209 for Kerry. And you don’t even want to see the trend at Tradesports. (Is it too late for the Torricelli Option?) |