Saddam Dead Pool - Guessing the date of a potential invasion is a fool's game.
And fool's games are usually the most fun.
I've been guessing (and it's only a marginally educated guess) March 21 for some time now. It seems to add up - the troops we just sent to the Gulf (the 82nd and 101st Airborne divisions) will have their heavy equipment in place and ready to go by then; the troops already there (Marines, the 3rd Infantry Division and many others) will have had that much more time to acclimate themselves to the desert. And winter will be drawing to a close in the Gulf around that time.
But the real driver, of course, is politics, especially Tony Blair's need to placate the UK's strong anti-war movement (especially among his own party's strong left wing).
Here's one option: take Villepin's date of March 14 and make it a final deadline. Say that by that date, Saddam must provide an accounting for the anthrax, nerve gas and other missing and unaccounted for materials cited by Blix; and also by that date, Iraq must destroy all its al Samoud missiles, which are banned under existing resolutions. We need a deadline. We had one - "immediate compliance" - I know. But we lose nothing by giving the world a final one. It would put the onus back on Saddam, help Blair, show a little flexibility on the part of the U.S., maybe bring around a few more Security Council members and not lose any significant time. Again, this isn't logical from the point of view of 1441. But it is a reflection of the political pressures on a key U.S. ally. Recognizing that political pressure is not surrendering to it. But ignoring it when we can still offer an alternative would be foolish. We can afford to be a little flexible. So let's be.It's such a fine line, the one between flexibility and enablement.
But for all the left's yapping about Bush's "diplomatic disaster", I think they can do it. In fact, I think taking a month (roughly) for one last round of futility at the UN would play nicely into the Administration's hands. Our troops can use the time to train in the desert, and (in the case of the recent arrivals) unscramble their equipment as it's unloaded from the cargo ships. And if it sews up the public opinion, especially of that part of the public that would support the war "as long as it's not unilateral", then the delay would serve both military and political ends.
Posted by Mitch at February 17, 2003 11:49 AM