A new Reuters/Gallup poll taken just before the debate has Kerry ahead by one point:

Kerry pulled ahead of Bush 46-45 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, which concluded before the start of Friday night's televised debate between the two contenders in St. Louis, Missouri.

The two had been in a statistical dead heat in the previous poll, with Bush leading by less than one percentage point.

I expect the post-debate polls to give him a further lead. If you see any new results from scientific polls start coming in, let us know in the comments.

President Bush's tailor breaks the White House silence on whether the bulge in Bush's suit was due to an earpiece :

President Bush's tailor yesterday pooh-poohed an Internet conspiracy theory that a boxy bulge visible between President Bush's shoulder blades during the first debate could have been some kind of prompting device. Georges de Paris, who made the suit worn by Bush, said the bulge was nothing more than a pucker along the jacket's back seam, accentuated when the president crossed his arms and leaned forward.

A pucker? Somehow, I don't think this is going to settle the matter.

This comes from an AP news article on the debate... not an op-ed piece or editorial.

President Bush smirked and winked and chuckled to himself. He jumped from his stool, chopped at the air and interrupted the debate moderator. As he fought to keep his emotions in check during a combative debate with Sen. John Kerry, the president jokingly said, "That answer almost made me want to scowl."

Several answers brought Bush's emotions to the surface, for better or worse, as he sought to curb Kerry's momentum.

The question that hung over the second of their three debates was whether Bush's aggressive, hyper style was an effective tool or a damaging habit - an extension of his disastrous first debate performance. Reviews were mixed.

Bush "seemed wound a bit too tight. He was a little like Nixon - sort of jumping out of his suit," said David Niven, political science professor at Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton. "He looked bad on the TV close-ups."

That's quite an indictment, don't you think?

Oliver Willis has the video of Bush flipping out at Charlie Gibson.

Billmon returns from hiatus to say:

If Kerry and the Dems can't make an issue out of the fact that the president of the United States is utterly incapable of controlling his hairtrigger temper, they don't deserve to win this election. I mean, the man is a walking time bomb.

Markos of Daily Kos:

Sh*t, this isn't even close. This is worse than last Tuesday's debate for Bush. He's rude, loud, arrogant, angry, and has been outmaneouvered by Kerry on question after question. This one isn't even close. Not even close.

Kevin Drum:

OFF HIS MEDS?....I've been surfing around TV a little bit, and the one thing that surprises me is that there's very little comment about George Bush's demeanor, especially during the first half hour. His voice was several notches above presidential, he was interrupting both Charlie Gibson and the questioners, he was leaping to his feet, he was jabbing the air with Ross Perot-like abandon, and there were at least a couple of times when he looked like he was about to leap into the audience and throttle someone. It's one thing to be passionate, but it's quite another to look like you're off your meds and need to be restrained.

Atrios:

ALERT: These polls are ongoing and can remain open for up to two days-- VOTE NOW and spread the word.

* MSNBC
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 78%
Bush: 22%

* CNN (Scroll Down to 'Quick Vote')
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 83%
Bush: 16%

* CBS News
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 88%
Bush: 11%

* Fox News (Scroll Down)
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 70%
Bush: 30%

John Kerry won, hands down. He had concrete answers. He was Presidential. He showed his knowledge and exposed Bush's mistakes.

Bush was defensive, belligerant and condescending at times. He keeps playing up the fear factor. He doesn't get it. He's detached. He's scary.

Your thoughts?

Update: Media Spin

• Chris Matthews: Biased for Bush, again.
• Bill Kristol and Mort Kondrake on Fox: Both said Kerry won the debate.
• Bill Clinton: Hillary says Bill says Kerry hit it out of the park. (She's on Larry King Live.)
• Hillary: Bush couldn't think of anything he did wrong, he didn't have a plan, particularly for change, and everyone knows we need change. Race will be close, but Kerry will win. Kerry was clear winner tonight, President said same old-same old.

Polls:

ABC POLL: Who Won The Debate:
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 41%

Update 5 8:35 closings: Kerry's is good. Concrete plans. He's presidential. Articulate. Engaged.

Bush: Soft-speaking, mealy. Touting his economic successes. He still doesn't get it. Instead of a plan, he announces goals. "We will be safe."

8:30: Bush is asked to name three of his mistakes. He bobs and weaves, trying not to say he didn't make any but not acknowledging any specific ones. Kerry has Bush's mistakes down pat. Gets in another shot at Bush for going to war.

"Saddam was a risk to our country, man." Man?

Update #4: 8:20 pm Kerry is good on the Patriot Act abuses. He opposes sneak and peek's. He opposes detentions where people can't challenge their confinement. But he says he supports the Act. Which portions?

The stem cell questioner has to be a plant. Could anyone who is that much against embryonic stem cells not be a pro-lifer whose mind is made up? Bush's relaxed answer shows he knows he has this questioner, there's no threat. Nonetheless, Kerry is great on his second shot at the answer.

Onto the Supreme Court: Bush says he hasn't decided who to put on the Supreme Court yet. He wouldn't pick a judge who ruled against the Pledge of Allegiance or the one who decided Dred Scott. How timely. He would pick strict constructionists. No litmus test except for how they interpret the Constitution. Kerry blows Bush out of the water on this one.

Another pro-lifer question. Uncommitted, please. I'm surprised Charlie Gibson allowed these questions to be posed in such a partisan manner.

Update #3 8:07 pm: Bush says he's been a good steward of the land. Now we know we can't believe a word he says. Kerry is becoming more confident and natural as the debate goes on. He's in his stride now, and Bush seems angry and petulant.

Update #2 7:50 pm. This debate is kind of a snooze. The audience is about as homogenous as you can get. Very little diversity. Too many are keeping their arms folded across their chests when one or the other talks, hardly the sign of an uncommitted voter.

Just as we thought....the terror alert that went out yesterday about schools was bogus. [link via AmericaBlog]

U.S. authorites obtained a federal order to seize Indymedia's webservers in the U.S. and London.

Why? IndyMedia is in the dark. Here's what Rackspace, its hosting company had to say:

"In the present matter regarding Indymedia, Rackspace Managed Hosting, a U.S. based company with offices in London, is acting in compliance with a court order pursuant to a Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty (MLAT), which establishes procedures for countries to assist each other in investigations such as international terrorism, kidnapping and money laundering. Rackspace responded to a Commissioner’s subpoena, duly issued under Title 28, United States Code, Section 1782 in an investigation that did not arise in the United States. Rackspace is acting as a good corporate citizen and is cooperating with international law enforcement authorities. The court prohibits Rackspace from commenting further on this matter.

In other words, Rackspace is gagged. Note that a search warrant wasn't used. Only an administrative subpoena. An end run around the 4th Amendment. Here are the questions IndyMedia has at this time.

There's going to be a showdown. The House passed its Intelligence Reform bill this afternoon. The Senate passed its version earlier this week. The two are dramatically different in that the House version contains expanded law enforcement powers. Now the House and Senate will appoint conferees to see if they can hammer out a single version in time to get it to Bush for signing before the election.

The House version stinks. One additional note: The provision that would have allowed the U.S. to deport non-citizens to a country that might torture them was scrapped. Here's what they got instead:

Tonight's the night. Will the "town hall" format favor Bush? Will the media be pre-disposed to give him a pass after last week's bashing? How will Kerry do? Take it away.

Markos of Daily Kos will be on MSNBC's pre-debate show.

Will Bush be wearing one of these again?

[new photo from Detroit Films.]

I just dropped the rates for ads on TalkLeft. Check them out, there are some real bargains. Ads placed today will be up in time for the debate. Act soon, because prices will be going back up Monday or Tuesday.

Placement links:

• Premium, top right
• Right sidebar
• Left sidebar

Demand for the top left spot is very high. It's available only between Oct. 19 and 28. Instead of lowering the price on this one, I"m offering 9 days for the rate of 7. Then it's filled until November 28, so again, act soon.

If Civil Rights, human rights, prison reform and drug policy reformer advocates across America want to have a real and positive impact on Congress in the 2004 election, they will seriously consider voting for their Democratic candidates in House races. Regardless of any personal third party inclinations.

Democratic control of the U.S. House of Representatives will mean John Conyers, D-MI, a drug war policy reform advocate, will become the first Black chairman of the House Judiciary Committee. For progressive voters across America this is an electoral outcome well worth voting for.

[Received from Pat Rogers.]

Bump and Update: She's in.

**************
The media has assembled.

Here is one from this morning when she surrendered. Another of her pre-dawn arrival.

****************
Original Post
Martha Stewart's Last Day of Freedom

Martha Stewart will surrender tomorrow to begin her 5 month prison term. Today is her last day of freedom for five months. For those who think "Camp Cupcake" is a walk in the park, it's not. It may not have cells with bars and razor-wired fences, but there is no way that inmates are not aware 24/7 that their choices and movements are restricted and they have very little control over their lives. Here's some of what Martha reportedly will face:

The process will begin as soon as Stewart voluntarily surrenders on Friday. Just like every other inmate at the minimum security facility, Stewart will be fingerprinted, photographed, and strip searched.

She will have to give a urine sample in front of the guards. She will be issued a prison uniform and black steel toed boots. She will be given bedding -- a pillow, sheets, a blanket and towels. She will be assigned a bed in one of the dorm-like facilities.

Her day will consist of:

The Center for Public Integrity has obtained classified background materials from the Army report on Abu Ghraib that describe in detail attacks, prisoner riots, interrogation methods and the torture and death of detainees. These documents, along with reports about the documents will be released in two parts beginning today, October 8. [link fixed]

If you have that uneasy feeling you're being watched between now and Election Day, you may be correct. Attorney General John Ashcroft has issued a sweeping 60 day directive authorizing federal agents from a variety of agencies--DEA, FBI, BATF and the U.S. Marshal's service--to begin surveillance of potential terrorism suspects.

Don't let the title to this article in the OC Weekly put you off. Read the 60 reasons to vote against Bush. Many of them are dead-on. There's something for everyone here. One of my favorites:

15. The Patriot Act does little to defend you from terrorists but greatly increases the government’s power to get all up in your mess. Phone and Internet records can now be searched without warrants; police can see what books you’ve checked out of the library, but libraries are prohibited from informing you about the inquiry; your religious and political activities can be scrutinized even if the government doesn’t suspect criminal activity; you may be jailed without being charged, denied a lawyer or the chance to confront witnesses against you, and held indefinitely without a trial. Bush’s boys apparently still don’t feel they’ve dismantled civil liberties enough: they’re reportedly at work on the Patriot Act II.

Here's another:

British hostage Ken Bigley has been beheaded . The militants who kidnapped him sent out a video. The group responsible reportedly is the armed Tawhid wa al-Jihad (Unity and Holy War) group.

R.I.P. Mr. Bigley.

Rumors are flying around Texas that Tom DeLay is the subject of a criminal probe and may be indicted. Daily Kos examines them. Bottom line: It's a distinct possibility but not a sure thing.

His office has been burning up the news wires, issuing press releases on legislation at a heavy clip the past few days. Two Thursday, three Wednesday, in addition to a release about a special "pen and paper briefing" for the media on the Ethics Complaint, to be held at his office; four Tuesday and one Monday. These all follow the press releases issued last Friday by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington on the Ethics Report and Campaign for America's Future , calling on House Republicans to oust DeLay "before he goes to prison for corruption."

To read them all, go here and type in DeLay and the date range you are interested in.

Go ahead, just try and cast your vote for Kerry.

Questions that surfaced on the internet about whether Bush was wired with an earpiece so his advisors could speak to him during the debate are gaining steam. Salon reports here.

Prior Internet reports are here and here.

Listen to the mp3 yourself- or watch the video at c-span --fast forward to 40 min 30 sec.

Not convinced? Here's another:

Lots more here.

Update: The LA Times asks if Bush is "a dope" in its Wednesday editorial. It concludes he isn't, but says he's mentally lazy.

Right on schedule.

AP: "The Education Department has advised school leaders nationwide to watch for people spying on their buildings or buses to help detect any possibility of terrorism like the deadly school siege in Russia. The warning follows an analysis by the FBI and the Homeland Security Department of the siege that killed nearly 340 people, many of them students, in the city of Beslan last month. 'The horror of this attack may have created significant anxiety in our own country among parents, students, faculty staff and other community members,'

Deputy Education Secretary Eugene Hickok said in a letter to schools and education groups ... The Education Department sent its letter by e-mail Wednesday to school police, state school officers, school boards, groups representing principals and many other organizations." (emphasis added)

First off, this isn't new and it's been debunked.Why trot it out now? Here's Why.

[links via Ezra at Pandagon and Pandagon commenters.]

This is unusual, to say the least. Is it also improper? At least one expert thinks so.

The judge who presided over the biggest terrorism trial since Sept. 11 left his Detroit courtroom, traveled to CIA headquarters and helped interview a witness whose testimony later became key to the judge's reversal of convictions in the case.

Government officials familiar with the interview told The Associated Press the judge and Justice officials worked together outside the presence of defense lawyers to conduct the interview because of concerns about protecting secret information under the Classified Information Procedures Act. But legal experts said U.S. District Judge Gerald Rosen's actions were highly unusual and could provide grounds for lawyers to challenge his impartiality because he assumed the role of investigator in a case he continued to preside over.

The Valerie Plame grand jury investigation is taking prisoners:

A federal judge held a reporter in contempt Thursday for refusing to divulge confidential sources to prosecutors investigating the leak of an undercover CIA officer's identity.

U.S. District Judge Thomas F. Hogan ordered New York Times reporter Judith Miller jailed until she agrees to testify about her sources before a grand jury, but said she could remain free while pursuing an appeal. Miller could be jailed up to 18 months.

by TChris

It isn't unusual for scientists employed by a government crime lab to make mistakes. It is unusual for a government scientist's problematic credibility to "tip the scales" in favor of a judge's decision to dismiss a prosecution.

Phillip Rawl has been tried twice on charges of vehicular homicide, based on a blood analysis showing that his blood alcohol content exceeded the legal limit after an accident that killed his passenger. Neither jury could reach a unanimous verdict. Before the third trial started, Rawl's attorney, David Kaloyanides, asked the judge to dismiss the charge because the prosecutor failed to disclose evidence that the crime lab chemist who tested the blood, Jeff Lowe, had been mistaken at least 27 times while performing a task as simple as weighing drugs.

Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge Stephen A. Marcus agreed that the district attorney's office should have disclosed the evidence, and cited the failure as a factor that "tipped the scales" in favor of dismissal. The judge added that there was no reason to believe a third jury would convict after the first two hung.

Great news! A just-released AP poll has Kerry taking a small lead over Bush.

The poll shows Bush's support "tumbling" on "personal qualities, the war in Iraq, and the commander in chief's bedrock campaign issue — national security."

Human Rights Watch has a report on the risks to women who vote in Saturday's Afghan elections. Reports that 41% of registered voters are women are likely exaggerated because of multiple counting of the same registrations. More imortantly, those women who do vote will do so at tremendous physical risk to their safety.

Widespread intimidation of women and general insecurity threaten women’s right to vote freely in the October 9, 2004, presidential elections, stand for political office, and fully participate in public life. Parliamentary and local elections planned for next year will present even greater challenges for women.

When a U.S.-led coalition invaded Afghanistan in October 2001, one of the justifications for the war was that it would liberate women from the misogynistic rule of the Taliban. There have been notable improvements for women and girls. More than one million girls are enrolled in school and the new Constitution contains guarantees for women’s equal rights.

However, warlords and the Taliban are undermining Afghan women’s participation in the political process through ongoing threats and attacks. Throughout the country, militarized political factions are using force, threats, and corruption to stifle more legitimate political activity and dominate the election process.

We'll be listening to Bush in the debate closely as he credits his Administration's achievements for Afghans, particularly women. I hope the mainstream media and bloggers will be fact-checking him.

Martha Stewart's attorneys today accused the Government of withholding critical evidence in her trial--evidence that came out this week at the perjury trial of ink expert Larry Stewart. Her lawyers say it could have led to an acquittal. You can read the ten page letter here (pdf.) Martha has new lawyers for the appeal, Walter Delinger of D.C., Marty Weinberg of Boston and David Chesnoff of Las Vegas.

For those who support Martha, here's what you can do to make a difference:

You can start today by subscribing to Martha Stewart magazines, or sending them as gifts to your friends. Don't forget Everyday Food! Subscribe or buy it each month at the grocery store.

Sign this online petition to the President to pardon Martha so she loses the felony conviction. [update: site or link currently not working]

by TChris

Celebrate your First Amendment freedoms during Banned Book Week by reading a work of literature that, at some point, censors deemed unfit for consumption. The list includes such great works as Native Son, Animal Farm, On the Road, and The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn. Or read Ray Bradbury's cautionary tale of censorship, Fahrenheit 451. Or join others at a read-in to express your commitment to intellectual freedom.

For a more complete list of books that censors think you shouldn't read, go to the American Library Association's list of 100 Most Frequently Banned Books from 1990 to 2000, including that dangerous work of sedition and smut, Where's Waldo?