The Wayback Machine - http://web.archive.org/web/20050219090211/http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com:80/


(to report an unwelcome or inappropriate ad, <right click> on the ad, <copy link location> and then post a comment here)


IRAQ THE MODEL
Friday, February 18, 2005
 
The terrorist attacks have increased once again in cities like Baghdad and Mosul after the period of relative peace that followed the elections.
The terrorists were obviously stunned the for a while and we expected that the terror groups would change their strategy of obstructing the elections and now they adopted a new-old plan as a reaction to the big achievement of the She'at in the elections which made the terror groups consider going back to the old idea of provoking a civil war.

Now they're targeting the She'at citizens and their religious symbols and mosques and I think this is a proof that they're losing and that their pre-election strategy was wrong and going back to the civil war plan that was previously applied (and proved to be ineffective) after the liberation indicates their bankruptcy and their inability to find a new effective strategy to face the huge success great determination of the people. Now it seems that the terrorists are recycling their stupid.

Terror has received so many severe blows in the last few weeks and I still believe that we should make use of the high morale of the people after the success in the elections and build more bridges between the security forces and the coalition on one side and the people on the other side.

And I think that the coalition and the Iraqi forces are making efforts to make this happen; on my way back to Baghdad from Samawa last week, some Iraqi soldiers and IP men stopped us an handed the passengers-with a nice language-a number of leaflets that urge the people to report any suspicious activities and/or elements and encourage people to report and assuring them that they don't have to fear from being tracked by the thugs.

Few miles later we were stopped by an American checkpoint and they didn't stop us for an inspection procedure, after greeting us they were glad to see that some of us speak English well, one of them said that a coalition point was attacked with mortars and so he was asking us for any information or observations about this attack.
I told them that we're only passers by and we don't know the area very well and I asked if there were any casualties but gladly the answer was "no but we want to gather information about the attackers".

And I also noticed that Iraqi soldiers on other checkpoints started friendly conversations with the people and this is a good indication; searching isn't enough alone, bridging the gaps is what really matters.
Security will not be achieved if the people do not cooperate with the authorities and I think now it's due the time for the people to take bigger role in a nation-wide action against terror.

A few days ago a coalition convoy was patrolling our district and they were stopping every other hundred meters talking to the people and distributing key chains and leaflets that carry secure phone numbers for the people to use in reporting criminal activities and this is a smart idea as key chains are always in one's hands or pocket and phones are a reliable contact route and I think using the internet and e mails for the same task is another option that can be helpful as it's untraceable and people, especially the educated segment use the internet very often and they would feel more secure comfortable that way than with the phones.

I have no estimations about how many people will provide information that way but I feel that the rate has increased after the elections. Moreover, the Iraqi media is also playing a good role in exposing criminals and there are some local channels that broadcast the confessions of arrested terrorists.
I think that the local TV station in Mosul has done a good job recently and the people are now even more disgusted from the doings of the terrorists and the terrorists reaction by attacking the station's HQ more than once in the past days indicates that they're really pissed off from this station's shows.

The confessions have shown that some criminals have strong connections with the Syrian authorities from where they get instructions and support.
The interesting part of the show was the interrogation with Khalidah Jasim the sister of Khalid Zakiyah who's one of the most wanted criminals in Mosul who got arrested a while ago in Tikrit.
She stated that she was in her 2nd year in college studying psychiatry and that she was a member of a Palestinian military organization that was lead by George Habash.

She confessed that she has taken her brother's place in leading the terror group and she's specialized in preparing TNT used in roadside bombs.
She also didn't deny one of the group members statements that she offered to sleep with him twice in order to persuade him to plant landmines and perform attacks against Iraqi and American troops.
More details about this in the Friends of Democracy Arabic website.

The Iraqi security forces are now deployed everywhere in Baghdad and there are checkpoints at every corner.
The ceremonies of Ashoura have begun and people are practicing the cooking tradition in the streets and distributing food through to their neighbors and inviting anyone passing by. And people come walking on foot to visit the shrines of Imam Kadhum in Baghdad as well as other shrines in Najaf and kerbala to hold their ceremonies.
We still remember the bloody attacks of last year and we hope that this year's ceremonies pass peacefully.
Terrorism knows no religion and attacking people while doing their prayers or holding their ceremonies in their mosques is enough to tell the people inside and outside the country that those criminals do not represent any legitimate resistance or a rebellion; they're simply criminals.

Here are pictures for the leaflets and key chain (the upper one was distributed by the MNF while the one below was distributed by the ISF) Face...Back.

Mohammed.
Wednesday, February 16, 2005
 
The Magic of Pajamas.
Well I think I titled this post with the word pajamas because the connection between blogging and pajamas has been a mystery for me. Of course I know what the theory says regarding this connection but I wasn't sure of the mechanism in which they relate to each other. Until this afternoon.
This may not seem like a regular ITM post and I think that's the idea!

I was talking to Mohammed an hour ago and we both were feeling depressed because of the declining quality and quantity of posts on our blog and the deficiency of ideas for good posts that we're currently suffering from. I don't know whether you agree with us but we here can feel it.
Then he suddenly said laughing "go wear your pajamas, maybe this will inspire you to write something"!
Well, frankly speaking it did and once I went into my pajamas I felt a strange motivation for writing; writing anything, at least it encouraged me to write this stupid conversation between two bored brothers drinking tea and smoking cigarettes in the afternoon.
I'm not claiming that my pajamas have magic in them but you know what? They do make a change!

Maybe the reason for not writing much these days is because of the current situation in Iraq; the elections are over and the results have been announced so there's nothing BIG to reason or to write about.
Also, there aren't any remarkable changes in the everyday life in Iraq recently; although the security situation has somewhat improved in Baghdad but still not to the degree that makes a difference. Less explosions and gunfire are heard but criminal gangs still perform their attacks so the citizens of Baghdad are still cautious.

Electricity and fuel supplies witnessed a more visible improvement this week; we're now getting more than 12 stable hours / day of electricity in comparison with a 6 hour supply a few weeks ago. This isn't enough power of course and there were times when we had 20 hours / day last year but it's an indication that the situation is getting under control and that sabotaged facilities are getting fixed.
As for the fuel supplies, the price of the 20 liters of gasoline has decreased from 12000 ID (8 $) to around 4000 ID (less than 3 $). By the way, this quantity of this kind of fuel has become the parameter for evaluating the situation here as the most common container size used for gasoline by the black market dealers is 20 L.

As I said earlier, no big changes are taking place here and it feels like "a low grade fever" where you're still feeling weak and having headaches and bone ache but also feel comfortable that the most critical times are now behind your back.

Let's widen the circle a little and move to some other current issues and I will start with the assassination of the Lebanese ex-PM, Al-Jazeera is now conducting a poll about the most likely parties to be behind for the assassination. The list of choices included the following:
Israeli agents, American agents, Lebanese rebels, Syrian rebels and "others".
What's new! The 1st two choices are characteristic of Al_Jazeera and conspiracy theorists and of course it's not in any of these countries interest to kill a man who's somehow in support of their vision about the Syrian role in Lebanon but the next two choices make no sense at all, that's at least how I see it.

Why would "Syrian rebels" (who by definition are supposed to be opposing their government) kill the man who's against the Syrian policies and the Syrian presence in Lebanon!?
And why would the "Lebanese rebels" target a man who's currently not in power and considered himself part of the opposition!?
So, there remains one choice which is "others" that I have no idea to whom Al-Jazeera was trying to refer to, maybe the Iraqi intelligence?

The point I want to say here is that Al-Jazeera has omitted the only party that has the strong motives to perform such an attack which is the Syrian government and their allied terror groups of course. I personally strongly believe that Syria is involved in performing the attack or hiring some group to do it.

A big deal of the blame should be put on the Lebanese government because they accepted to host the armed forces and intelligence systems of one of the most active terror-supporting regimes in the region and the Lebanese government must be held accountable for endangering their people's life and their country's stability.
The Syrian government has claimed to be irresponsible of the attack and they will try in one way or another to blame Israel or America for it in an attempt to get more excuses for keeping the Syrian troops in Lebanon.
A mean but very stupid plan that is characteristic of tyrannies just like how misleading polls like Al-Jazeera is characteristic to most Arab Media and Western media as well.

Okay, I will stop this rambling of subjects irrelevant to each other and I will end the post with a joke about (guess who?) Al-Jazeera:
The post that big pharaoh wrote a few days ago reminded me of the last couple of series of the "Ittijah Al-Mo'akis" or the Opposite Direction show on Al-Jazeera.

Its worth mentioning that this show which is supposed to focus on the hot topics has completely ignored the Iraqi elections on its episode that was shown two days after the elections took place inside Iraq and 5 days after elections started outside the country.
However they dedicated last week's episode to "discuss" the elections.
Regardless of all the bias and the hostility the show carries against Iraq one thing made me really laugh from my heart.

One caller who was a woman from Saudi Arabia said that the Iraqi elections were a joke, an American theatrical action and all this kind of crap like "no democracy under occupation"…blah blah blah.
Imagine, a woman from Saudi Arabia criticizes our elections! A woman from a country that doesn't give women the right to cast votes even in municipal councils elections!! Let alone that the Saudi "parliament" members are appointed not elected.
The point here is why would I ask someone who doesn't have the right to participate in elections in his/her own country to give an opinion about elections in another country?!

A friend who sitting next to me said mocking "never mind the b****, she's just jealous of our country's women who won 25% of the seats but when she gets the right to give her opinion on the color of the doormen uniform in her country, then that she will call true democracy".

I have never written with such an appetite before! thanks to my pajamas.
Tuesday, February 15, 2005
 
Ali has made some further math on the results of the Iraqi elections and stated his findings and conclusions in an informative post today.
He also pointed out a very interesting issue regarding the announced Vs actual percentage of the turnout:

One of my neighbors received his family's ballot with his father's name included even though he died a year ago. Under reporting of deaths was not that uncommon but it became more common after the last war as a result of the total collapse of the system for months. Another neighbor had his two sons' names registered although they both left Iraq since 1995. This means that many Iraqis outside Iraq, regardless whether they voted or not, were considered registered eligible non-voters inside Iraq!

Read the rest.
Monday, February 14, 2005
 
The Egyptian newspapers at a glance!
 
Part 21 of Chrenkoff's good news from Iraq is now available; a great piece as always with a very interesting collection of economy and reconstruction news as well as election results news and commentary.
Sunday, February 13, 2005
 
Democracy in progress.
Congratulations to the Iraqi people,

The results are for the best of Iraq and its future; Iraqis have put the corner stone for the state of law and constitution and have proved to the world how the region's nations are eager for freedom and how much they reject the concepts of violence and despotism that were imposed by fire and steel.

The ballot and the box have won and the purple fingers garnished the beautiful picture.

The high turnout in circumstances that were considered to be the most dangerous was like a candle that leads the road for the rest of freedom seeking people and gave lesson in courage and determination and reminds even those who lived their whole lives in democracies about the bravery of their founding fathers who struggled and sacrificed for the sake of their children's future and prosperity.

The winners are in front of a historic responsibility of drawing the future of Iraq and defining its new identity. Their load is heavy but the most important thing is that the people back them and back the writing of the permanent constitution.

I was so happy today while watching the results being displayed on TV although I didn't get the seat I dreamed of. Little parties like ours couldn't compete with the larger ones that own radio and TV networks and had their banners and posters filling the streets while I had to borrow from my friends to pay the 5000 $ registration fees of the party because the support we received for the party from our friends and supporters hasn't reached Baghdad till this moment because of some banking bureaucracy. All we had was 3000 $ to spend on advertising and publicity and managing all the party's affairs.

Add to this that the candidates of small parties had to accept risking their lives as we made ourselves easy targets for the terrorists; we don't have the adequate personal protection like the famous figures who live in heavily protected quarters and protected by hundreds of bodyguards.
While candidates like me live among the people and walk on the streets, in the past few weeks we saw several Iraqi politicians targeted and assassinated, but our participation was more important than anything else because it gave more credit to the elections and we're happy with that role.

The world will remember the number "7461"; these were the candidates who didn't submit for blackmailing and decided to take the responsibility despite the threats and the dangers.
If small parties like ours haven't participated, the elections wouldn't have succeeded the way it did.

I see that we didn't lose at all, on the contrary, we won and the only loser is terror and its dictators allies.
We will always have the chance to participate again and our voice will always be heard and we will not give up on what we started.

The political map in my opinion will witness many changes in the coming 6 months and alliances will be reshaped and the small entities will seek forming bigger masses in order to get a better representation in the future elections which are not far away.
And I believe that the major parties will try to form an alliance to balance forces with the winning list of the United Coalition which I assume will be working hard on its end to satisfy the other parties as it needs the support of the other half to pass its projects and legislations and now its obvious that the United Coalition is 'flirting' with others through messages of reassurance focusing on the idea that the United Coalition has no will to make Iraq an Islamic state and on that Islam will not be the only source of legislations in the coming constitution.

On the other hand, the SCIRI demands for respecting Islam seem reasonable and realistic more than conservative, as securing the unity of the coalition requires also reassuring the secular members of the list.
Moreover some members from the same list stated that they would like to see a Kurdish president for Iraq and in a statement for Hussein Sharistani, one of the coalition's leading figures, he said "to prove to the people that the coalition is democratic in nature, the ministers or PM that are to be chosen from our list will be elected by the 131 members and not by the elite or the big figures of the coalition".

Also there were other statements coming from inside the coalition refusing the idea of planning a withdrawal schedule for the Multinational forces from Iraq as Ibrahim Al-Jaafari said who considered that calls for a withdrawal are aiming at creating chaos and a civil war.
These statements and many similar ones refute the expectations about Iraq becoming a "copy" of Iran. All this and more proves the reasonability of the suggested choices with an invitation for open talks and negotiations.

Generally speaking, all politicians realize the role of the United States and the coalition forces in protecting the new born democracy and most of the major players realize the necessity of a strategic partnership with the United States for the good of Iraq and for the success of the war on terror.

The event of elections in Iraq was a huge turning point in the history of the region and Iraqis and their political parties have proved-despite the lack of experience-that they can do well and show high performance in a process of change that represents the first signs of a bright future for this country and the Middle east.
No one will stop the train of democracy and those who stand against the change will soon be nothing but forgotten.


Mohammed.
Thursday, February 10, 2005
 
A few days ago, Mithal Al-Alusi; an Iraqi politician and the head of the "Hizb Al-Umma Al-Iraqiya" or the (Iraqi Nation Party) survived an assassination attempt when a group of terrorists attacked him in front of his house but his two young sons and his guard were killed in the attack.

The brave politician, despite his tragic loss made very strong statements during an interview he gave to RFI "Radio free Iraq".


Al-Alusi: Again, the ghosts of death are going out. They are ready to kill a person, ready to kill the peace, ready to kill the victory of Iraqis and their right to life. Again, henchmen of the Ba'ath [Party] and dirty terrorist gangs, Al-Qaeda and others, are going out convinced that they can determine life and death as they desire. Iraq will not die.

My children, three people [in all] -- one of my bodyguards and two of my children -- died as heroes, no differently from other people who find their heroic deaths. But we will not, [I swear] by God, hand Iraq over to murderers and terrorists.

We will pave the road for peace. If [the attackers] thought that by attempting to kill Mithal al-Alusi, the advocates of peace in Iraq will be stopped, then they have made a grave mistake. We will be calling for peace. We will be calling for peace with all neighboring countries [of Iraq]. We will be calling for peace with all countries of the region. And we will be calling for fighting terrorism by any means [and] against all forms [of terror].

They claim that Islam is a message of killing, while Islam is a message of peace. They claim that the principles [of Islam] encourage killing, while the only principles that encourage killing are the principles of the Ba'ath [Party] and of the heathens from Al-Qaeda groupings
.

Read the rest of the interview here.


It's worth mentioning that his party's slogan for the electoral campaign was "Don't Let Them Win" and it's obvious who "Them" was in refernce to and I see that Mithal and determined Iraqis like him who are ready to sacrifice are winning even though the evil doers might appear to be inflicting so much damage as to make them look strong.

This reminds me of a situation that happened on elections day last week; an election center was attacked with mortars in Al-Ataifiya (Not Latifiyah) district where one of my closest friends lives. He talked to me on the phone that morning with a tone of amazement in his voice and told me that at the beginning there was panic among the people who lined up to vote but within half an hour after the attack, things came back to normal and the lines became even longer.
The people realized that there could be another attack but that didn't stop them from seizing the moment, the moment of choosing the way of life they want for themselves and their children.
"God, I'm amazed by the bravery of those folks, I was too scared myself but watching the people coming back made me feel strength that I've never felt before" These were my friend's words.

I wonder how long it's going to take the terrorists to understand that we're NOT giving up, no matter what they do to intimidate us, no matter how many pipelines they blow up and no matter how many of us they kill.

Everyday I see the media talking about "body counts" and the "cost of the war". Well, we know that there are innocent people losing their lives and we know that there's a lot of damage going on but it's not like we're discouraged by these losses.
We don't need those who 'weep' for us and count our brothers and friends who have fallen for the sake of freedom but we welcome those who are ready to stand on our side.

We accepted the challenge from day one and we realized that we will have to pay a price for our freedom and the cruelty of the battle hasn't changed that, in fact, Iraqis now are more determined to finish the battle than before, and to win.


Wednesday, February 09, 2005
 
"Final thoughts on a year in Iraq"
I was privileged to be copied on a message that was sent from a US Army Captain to his family few days prior to his departure from Iraq after spending a long time in Iraq. After requesting for his permission on it, I decided to publish this moving message and share it with you, here it is:


In the next 24 hours I will finally be boarding a plane for the long awaited flight back to Germany. I will do so with the knowledge in the back of my head that this may not be my last tour in Iraq. As I was walking back to work tonight to write this e-mail, I had a convincing reminder that despite the recent success of the elections, Iraq remains a very dangerous place.



I was reflecting on all of the events and experiences of the last year and thinking about what I was going to write when I heard a strange but now somewhat familiar whirling sound. I looked up to see the orange sparks from a rocket as it crossed in front of my eyes, disappeared out of sight, and fell to the ground and detonated with an explosion that shook the ground. The rocket had in fact fallen harmlessly into an open field a few hundred meters away, but it was still a reminder of the dangers that are ever present here. The conventional wisdom around here following a rocket or mortar attack is quite simple; if you are still alive and not severely bleeding, then you simply roll back over in you cot, finish your dinner, or otherwise continue going about your business. So here I am, back at my computer and I will get back to the things that I had wanted to share before I was distracted.



A year is a long time to spend in places like Iraq or Afghanistan, away from family, friends, and just about every aspect of life that we consider normal and so often take for granted. For the soldiers with families, it is even harder. Anniversaries are flowers sent via the e-mail. Their kids sporting events and activities are relegated to a two minute phone update over an awful connection. Birthdays and holidays are simply another day like any of the rest. When you consider all of this, you find yourself asking (as I have many times this past year) ‘Is it all worth it?’ Are the sacrifices that so many soldiers and families make on a daily basis worth the effort of being in Iraq? Is it worth the money we have spent destroying with one hand and rebuilding with another? How about the sacrifices of those men and women who will never return to their families? Is the mission here in Iraq worth what we have paid in blood sweat and tears? I think it is.



Last Sunday, the Iraqi people had an opportunity to express their own voices, their own opinions. In the months preceding the elections, skeptics would have led you to believe that a successful election in Iraq could not possibly take place given the current security situation. When you turned on the news, all you saw being reported on Iraq was the latest suicide bombing, the latest kidnapping, the latest body count. Is there anyone who can actually recall seeing a positive story that came out of Iraq? In the year that I have been here, the only positive story I can recall was the Iraqi National Soccer team’s gutsy performance in the Olympics. Can anyone remember a major news network that covered one of the hundreds of schools that have been built? How about the roads, hospitals, oil pipelines, or power plants? I for one can’t recall another single story that portrayed a remotely positive picture of what was happening in Iraq. Until last Sunday that is.



For the first time in a year the media seemed to focus their cameras on average Iraqis who for so long had remained silent. These were the millions of Iraqis that came out of their homes and defied the dangers and intimidation and went to the polls to cast their ballots for a new Iraqi future. Due to an apparent lack of burning vehicles and broken bodies, the media apparently had nothing left to report but the long lines of Iraqis as they peacefully cast their ballots. We saw men dancing in the streets and proud smiling faces that held up ink-stained fingers showing the sign for peace. Were the elections perfect? Certainly not. There were many Iraqis, especially among the Sunni minority, that exercised their right to withhold their vote; a newly given right by the way. Regardless, all Iraqis were given the opportunity to vote, and that is what is important. When America’s fledgling government first held elections, the only citizens eligible to vote were white male landowners. The United States has come a long way since our beginning. It is now Iraq’s turn for a new beginning. It isn’t going to be an easy road, but the Iraqi people are accustomed to greater hardships. The insurgency in Iraq won’t disappear over night, and will likely never disappear completely, but as an Iraqi government emerges we can only hope that the new government will be able to contend with the challenges posed by a determined minority.



Following the seemingly successful elections, I have already heard talk in the media about pulling our troops out of Iraq as soon as possible. This would be a great mistake. The withdrawal of coalition troops must be done gradually and only when the Iraqi government has the sufficient capacity to secure its own borders and police its interiors. To pull troops out too early and put the new government at risk of failure is to jeopardize everything that has been sacrificed and gained over the last couple years. We came here, right or wrong, to liberate Iraq from a ruthless dictator and to give them an opportunity at democratic self-rule. Our job in Iraq is only half done and we have the responsibility to see it through to the end.

Respectfully,
Kevin M. Burns
Captain, U.S. Army

Tuesday, February 08, 2005
 
This is the STUPIDEST comment I heard since the elections (from Al-Sabah, link in Arabic). And I said "since the elections" because the group in question has a very long history in stupid statements:

Abdul Hadi Al-Darraji, one of Muqtada's senior aides said:
"The elections were half legitimate and consequently, the coming government will not enjoy legitimacy".


Why this is stupid? Well, it is more than stupid as today it was announced that the list of "The Patriot Elites" which consists of a number of Muqtada's supporters has so far won a minimum of two seats in the coming National Assembly. By the way, If these are "Elites" I wonder what scum would look like!?

Anyway, observers expect the mentioned list to achieve as much as 10 seats out of the 275 seats when the ballot count is over.

I can understand it when someone opposes a government (that exists) but he doesn't agree with, or wasn't asked for his opinion while it was formed but to see someone criticizing a government (that WILL exist) and he is going to take part in its formation….That's beyond my comprehension!!

I can't deny that I'm worried about the danger associated with such kind of people having seats in the National Assembly but I will save the discussion for another post when the final results are announced.


 
Husayn over at "Democracy in Iraq" makes a comment about the possibility of having a theocracy in Iraq.

I think there is a misunderstanding of the language used by these clerics. Indeed, this win will give clerics more importance, but it does not mean they will rule us. I have posted before, that Sistani does not mix politics and religion, this makes him different from Khomeni. He has always said that religious leaders should be more like advisors. I do not necessarily have a problem with that.

And continues to say:

I tell you all to not worry, people have worked so hard, have given so much, to be free, we are not going to turn around and elect in people who will shackle us again.

The whole piece here.
 
Accpording to Baghdad Dweller, three Iraqi women are to nominate themselves for key positiions in the coming government:

Nominations concentrated on three names: “Naziha al- Duleimi”, who occupied a minister position for the first time in Iraq's history. She was part of the Iraqi government following the 1958 events.

In the meantime, “Safiya al- Siheel” nominated herself for presidency position in the coming Iraqi government. She is now the Iraqi ambassador to Egypt.

“Son Col Jabook” nominated herself for the position of minister of defense in the interim government.


 
Informative reports about authority abuse and post election disputes and protests in Najaf, from the friends of Democracy website as well as a report about the operations of the Iraqi security forces in Mosul, from the same source.
Monday, February 07, 2005
 
Now I recommend spending some time on reading part 9 of Chrenkoff's "Good news from Afghanistan". Lots of interesting good news as usual.
Sunday, February 06, 2005
 
A new form of tyranny!? Not that easy.
This afternoon I saw on the news (Al-Arabiyah) that:
"Al-Marji'yah, represented by Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistain demanded Islam to be the only source for legislation in Iraq and that the coming government must not try to separate religion from the State."

I didn't like this worrisome statement for sure but decided to wait for a while and gather more information before I make my comment on it.

Well, at least one Iraqi blogger wasn't that patient and chose to attack back, something that I don't recommend as it might drive people to say/write some unreasonable things.
For example, our friend "Baghdad Dweller" whom I respect has posted some superficial analysis of this subject and more worse posted some statements that are far from being accurate.

"Toppling Saddam Hussein’s regime and giving the Iraqis the freedom to choose has now set the country on a course to a bloodless Islamic revolution. Already, the effects are being felt. Whereas women under the Ba’ath regime, brutal as it was, enjoyed more freedom than most women in the Middle East, they are now unable to go outdoors without head scarves for fear of being harassed or assaulted."

No offence Dweller, but women do go out without wearing scarves, maybe not as they used to do in the past but the definitely do. One visit to any of Baghdad's universities or crowded market places can clear the confusion. Not to mention that there are 6 female ministers in the current interim government and 25% of the seats in the National Assembly will be occupied by women, now do you se something like that elsewhere in the ME?

And I completely understand that when you're outside Iraq, you will find no other way but to watch and read the-in most cases-biased media outlets to get the information you need and eventually this will lead to the formation of a confused vision.

Anyway, back to the main subject and the alleged statement; I chose to wait until the next news hour and of course until I chill out a little bit after the disturbing news and then I heard this update on the story "Haider Al-Khaffaf, a senior Sistani's aide says that no such statement was released".
And going back to Friday's news, another senior aide of Sistani said from Kuwait that "the future constitution of the country is an issue that is left for the National Assembly to deal with".

Away from false statements and true statements, let's go back to similar situations that took place not far ago; Dweller has given what I consider a very good example, she mentioned last year's resolution 137 issue which was called for by the head of the SCIRI (who's considered a strong candidate for the PM position in the coming government as he's heading the list of the Iraqi United Alliance). But even at that time, when the GC was partially in charge, the role of the people and the other members of the GC was so evident in refuting the resolution in question and thus the Islamists failed to pass the law.

Another important thing I'd like to point out here is that Ayatollah Sistani played the role of a 'safety valve' in Iraq, his wisdom has helped control the anger of the masses in more in an instance an I don't expect him to ruin what has been built so far and push the country into a civil war.

On the other hand, there are rules and regulations that govern the writing of the constitution and these were agreed on by almost everyone (with a few reservations though) but there is a general agreement on these rules, and anyway, passing any legislation will require the approval of 2 thirds of the assembly's members.
Even though the Alliance list seems to be winning a similar majority of the seats now but the future as I expect is hiding a lot of surprises; will the ten or fifteen parties that stood united through out the electoral process keep the same unity when their different interests and agendas contradict each other?? Will a secular Turcoman member of the Assembly for example help Al-Hakim pass such laws just because they were allies during the elections? From what I see, I think the answer is NO.

Dweller added "Although the Election was people Vs terrorist but a big deal of it was Religion Vs Secularism, religion that used by clerics and Mullah to advance their political cause."

Well, maybe elections were religion Vs secularism, but that would be the perspective of the cleric-like politicians and not the people's. It is true that Mullahs seize power in Iran but that Iranian model cannot take place in Iraq, simply because there's no place for a totalitarian regime in future Iraq and power can not be monopolized by any particular small group.
Bottom line is, the last word will be the people's from now on in Iraq and Iraqis will never accept a one man rule no matter what; They're tired of being controlled and they will never, ever approve a new kind of tyranny under any name.



 
Born in Iraq, raised in America
A moving story from "In Iraq For 365" (scroll down a few paragraphs by the way).
the story is of an Iraqi kid who left his country in 1991 and was back in 2003 as a soldier...well, it's much more than this, you've got to read the whole tale.
Saturday, February 05, 2005
 
Credit cards to be used in Iraq soon.
From Al-Sabah newspaper (4th piece in the column).

You will also find a few other inetresting stories.
 
Big Pharaoh expresses his concerns about the regional effects of the "Iraqi Tsunami" (I believe he used this term to emphasize the magnitude of the event, and not considering the Iraqi elections a catastrophe, right Pharaoh?) He would rather have it slow down for a while before hitting the 'Egyptian political shores'.

He explains why he thinks so:

The best organized and the most well financed opposition entity is the Muslim Brotherhood. Those call for democracy yet they don't practice it within their own organization. Besides I'd rather have a million years of Mubarak than one day of the MB. On the other hand, the other small opposition parties do not have enough influence over the public and they are headed by old political figures that stay at the helm of their organizations until the day their spirits leave their bodies.

Egyptian liberals and democrats are very weak. I simply cannot hear their voices and I am not sure of how well they will do if Iraq's tsunami hit Egypt. I have no problem with Islamists or Nasserites (remnants of the Nasser era) joining the political process, however, I am afraid that if they reached power they would remain in power. I just hope the Iraq tsunami will wait until we have decent alternatives.


Read the whole thing.
Friday, February 04, 2005
 
Elections vs. elections
I received this sarcastic article via e mail from a Syrian friend who's a member of the "Reform Party of Syria". The article talks about the latest election in Syria and compares between this one and the Sunday elections of Iraq.

Here's the whole article:

Doubt reigns over the outcome of Syrian elections; Outside observers question legitimacy of Bashar Assad’s 99% victory over (now presumed missing) opponent.

Results from Monday’s Syrian elections were announced today, with a clear mandate handed to Bashar Assad, with his ruling Ba'ath party sweeping the elections with a staggering 95% of the votes.
However, opposition parties such as the Communist Party and the Liberal Syrian Nationalist Party voiced complaints that their election results of negative 5 and 3 percent respectively were products of an unfair and rigged election process.
The head of the Ba'ath party regional politburo promised to immediately look into allegations of fraud and “resolutely and mercilessly deal with complaints so that they never ever happen again...ever.”!

CNN analyst Fareed Zakaria however moved fast to point out that the high voter turnout rate ought to be looked at as a positive developmental sign for democracy in Syria.
“With a 90% voter turnout rate, Syria remains light years ahead in the field of democratic involvement as opposed to one certain neighboring Arab so called democratic state…I don’t want to start naming names here or getting into a game of my-Arab-country-is-more democratic-than-yours…but lets face it, Syria’s elections went off without a hitch and were never marred with the uncertainty and chaos of not knowing who was going to win.”

When asked for their opinion on the remarkably high turnout of Syrian voters, unfriendly election ‘monitors’ simply shrugged and pointed to their bats.

A number of Middle Eastern experts also praised the convenient simplicity and easy to understand ballot for the Syrian presidential elections.
While the ballots in the recently conducted Iraqi elections included as many as a hundred different entities and nearly seven thousand candidates, the Syrian ballot was in contrast much more compact allowing for little room for voter confusion
(in most instances the ballots were already pre-marked in favor of Bashar Assad).

In addition, Ba'athist officials this year introduced a new ‘voter friendly’ ballot to ensure that absolutely no Syrian citizen would be faced with the dilemma of indecision (let alone chaos) that plagues many voters in the democratic world. At the top of each ballot now stands a picture of a smiling Bashar Assad above a caption that reads:
‘Vote, your life may depend on it’.

Ba'athist elections officials were mulling using a more direct slogan next year ‘Vote or die’ but feared comparisons with a similar slogan by American channel MTV urging young people of that country to vote.
However, Syrian Ba'ath officials were quick to remark that any superficial similarities between the slogans were completely coincidental and not to be taken in similar context. ‘Believe me, we mean it in a totally different way’ said Nabil Wahshi, general secretary of the Damascus Ba'ath party.

In a New York Times editorial, Michigan University’s professor of Middle Eastern studies Juan Cole said that he saw the elections in Syria as a model for other Arab countries to follow. “The last thing the Arab people need is a red herring like ‘free and open elections’ to distract them from the international Zionist/Neo-Con conspiracy to take their oil” Professor Cole then added that President Assad’s ability to gain such a high percentage of the vote “all the while maintaining an oligarchic cult of personality oppressive regime mired in nepotism and corruption” was “truly impressive” and a positive sign of “Arab solidarity.”

Indeed, many regional experts contend that the Syrian elections are the most legitimate to date among any held in the Arab world. According to one (unnamed) Syrian political analyst, “The Syrian elections are totally legitimate and a great advancement of Arab pride. No one can say that Bashar Assad heads a puppet regime, it is not controlled by foreign outside forces… or by the people, and it is completely unbeholden and unaccountable to anyone!”

In a sign of international solidarity, Richard Gere phoned to give his congratulations to president Assad and according to one observer was overheard playfully teasing Assad -reportedly remarking- “hey buddy, 20 more years eh ?”

Assad in a televised address this Tuesday said that he wished to thank the Syrian people “from the bottom of my heart” for their support and continued faith in his Baathist regime, cryptically concluding that “While I may not be able to thank each and every one of you who voted for me… rest assured, someone on my behalf will be paying a visit for those of you who did not.” !


 
A Magnificent Day for Iraq; a very good article I found on "Arab News".
Via Winds of Change.

Bravo Iraq! For history, Jan. 30, 2005, is one magnificent day for Iraq and the Arab nation. Regardless of who won and who lost, the day should be a permanent fixture on the Arab calendar forever. I don’t want to talk politics; I simply want to celebrate history.
In spite of everything, the Iraqis voted. They did so with a passion and a seriousness that gives the lie to the cliché that Arabs are not ready for democracy. One myth down, a thousand to go.
Everyone says that this is the first free elections in Iraq for fifty years. That is another lie. There has never been one single free election in the long history of the Arabs ever. This is the first one.


And the writer continues:

In the name of nationalism and “freedom” from imperialism, Iraqi boots crushed Iraqi skulls for so long. When “going home,” such dictators either jetted to Geneva or went to Tikrit.

Read the whole thing.

Wednesday, February 02, 2005
 
New techniques of the "resistance".
I strongly believe that terrorists are cowards but the cowardice you’re going to see in this story is just exceptional.
The suicide attack that was performed on an election center in one of Baghdad's districts (Baghdad Al-Jadeedah) last Sunday was performed using a kidnapped "Down Syndrome" patient.
Eye witnesses said (and I'm quoting one of my colleagues; a dentist who lives there) "the poor victim was so scared when ordered to walk to the searching point and began to walk back to the terrorists. In response the criminals pressed the button and blew up the poor victim almost half way between their position and the voting center's entrance".

I couldn't believe the news until I met another guy from that neighborhood who knows the family of the victim. The guy was reported missing 5 days prior to elections' day and the family were distributing posters that specified his descriptions and asking anyone who finds him to contact them.

When a relative of mine (who has a mental handicap due to an Rh conflict at birth) told me a month ago that a group of men in a car tried to kidnap him as he was standing in front of the institution he periodically visits to get medicine and support waiting for his brother; I thought that he was imagining the whole story.
He said that they tried to force him into the car telling him not to be afraid and that they're from the "mujahideen and not going to hurt him". My relative, despite his handicap was moved by his survival instinct and managed to run away.
After I heard the other story, I began to connect between the two stories and to consider my cousin's story as a true one that uncovered a new miserable war technique that can come only from the sickest minds.

What a huge difference there is between those who kidnap and use the mentally handicapped to perform their murders in cold blood and between the brave Iraqis who sacrificed their lives to protect their brethren. one story that is famous now in Iraq is about one brave Iraqi (A'adel Nasir) who saw a suspicious looking guy walking around a polling center in (Al- Hurriyah) district and soon the brave man realized that the suspicious guy was trying to commit a suicide attack; he ran towards him, wrestled him and knocked him down causing the bomb carried by the terrorist to explode, sacrificing his own life and saving the lives of the people standing in line at the gate of the voting center. It turned out later that the terrorist carried a Sudanese id.
Now, the school that hosted the voting center on the 30th carries the name of A'adel Nasir, as the Iraqi minister of education announced today.

The pathetic terrorists are breaking one world record after another in cowardice and insanity and this tells how bankrupt they're getting.



Monday, January 31, 2005
 
The day after.
What happened yesterday was an extremely significant turning point that will leave its marks on the future of the region.
The world stood astounded at the sight of the masses that challenged death yesterday to plant the seed of hope in those boxes and now the enemies of the change cannot deny all that; the people have said their word clear and loud in their purple finger revolution.
Why was the world surprised? And what were the motivations of the people who have never experienced democracy before?

There were so many misconceptions about Iraq and these were the reasons why viewers from outside as well as many Iraqis were surprised. In the past few months, the media have played a big role in reflecting a blurred image about the will and preparations of Iraqis to hold the elections, not to mention exaggerating the size of the "militant groups" and their capabilities.

The world has discovered yesterday-Iraqis are included here-many facts that correct those misconceptions; now it's become clear the weakness of the terror groups and their limited geographical distribution and I think that the low number of attacks we witnessed yesterday wasn't the result of the security measures alone but largely because of the limited areas these groups exist in and this rendered them capable only of launching attacks within their strongholds as the roads between provinces were blocked. Thus I believe that yesterday's attacks have identified the places where the terrorists mainly reside.

The over exaggerated estimations for the strength of terrorists have also contributed to intimidating the people but even with that, the silent majority moved forward led by the natural human desire for freedom and by the belief that elections can make their lives better. The people think of elections as a one day struggle that can prevent suffering on the long term.
The silent majority has realized that elections are good and serve the people's interests; they don't know much about practicing democracy as they never lived under one but it's the common sense of the people who see how democratic nations enjoy stability and prosperity that led them to this conclusion.

Maybe the "fatwas" from the religious leaderships contributed to this too but I don't think "fatwas" were the main reasons behind the excellent turnout. I expect the results to reveal that many Shea't voters didn't vote for the lists favored by the clergy. Even the list of the "united national alliance" which is expected to be among the big winners wouldn't have gotten all this popularity among voters if it had included too many clerics as less than 10% of the candidates in this list are clerics while the rest are technocrats, Sunni, Kurds, Turkmen and people from other religious minorities; without this variety in the list, it would've been resting now at the tail of the choices list.

What happened yesterday reminds me of the fall of Saddam and they way Iraqis expressed their delight on the 9th of April, only that yesterday's carnival was greater, louder and more specific. Are we going to learn the lesson from yesterday?

I am afraid from being trapped in an ecstasy that directs our attention away from making use of the achieved victory; this victory is represented now by the feeling of Iraqis that freedom lovers and democracy supporters are the majority and they're everywhere and that there exists a strong unity among Iraqis against terror threats.

Every person has realized that he's not fighting alone in this battle and that all Iraq, from the very north to the very south is sharing this view even in the cities where security is a big concern, like Diyala, Mosul, and Tikrit; even in Fallujah, the boxes weren't empty.
The majority wasn't silent yesterday and the people's confidence now is at its peak and we should encourage and invest this feeling now and rebuild the bridges between us, I mean the government, the coalition and the people so that we can find the best way to exterminate the terrorists and the criminals who we know now how few and isolated they are.

The joy of victory can make us lose important positions if we allowed it to delay us from making use of the advantage we achieved over the terrorists now.
What we do need now is balanced optimism and a search for new and improved methods to deal with the remaining tasks.

On the other side, all those who stood against the change will regroup again and launch another campaign to criticize and lessen the significance of this revolution and they will try to find gaps in the process to shake the confidence and the determination of the people.
I also call those who are pessimistic about the situation to make their pessimism balanced if they want to find solutions for the problems they expect to erupt.

The reaction of the dictators and the enemies of freedom remains predictable; the neighboring countries and the Arabic media will try to find new weapons to use against the ongoing democratic process and these new weapons could be even more cruel this time.

We here remain assured that we've put our feet on the right track and that the bright future we wish for Iraq has become much closer after the 30th of January but we all have to reevaluate our previous assumption according to the new facts on the ground in order to find the best way we can push the process to further successes.


Mohammed.

 
Chrenkoff's "Good news from Iraq" part 20 is now up.
You can find a ton of election-related links and a variety of good news about Iraq from the last couple of weeks.
A huge and informative piece as usual.

Sunday, January 30, 2005
 
The people have won.
We would love to share what we did this morning with the whole world, we can't describe the feelings we've been through but we'll try to share as much as we can with you.
We woke up this morning one hour before the alarm clock was supposed to ring. As a matter of fact, we barely slept at all last night out of excitement and anxiety.

The first thing we saw this morning on our way to the voting center was a convoy of the Iraqi army vehicles patrolling the street, the soldiers were cheering the people marching towards their voting centers then one of the soldiers chanted "vote for Allawi" less than a hundred meters, the convoy stopped and the captain in charge yelled at the soldier who did that and said:
"You're a member of the military institution and you have absolutely no right to support any political entity or interfere with the people's choice. This is Iraq's army, not Allawi's".
This was a good sign indeed and the young officer's statement was met by applause from the people on the street.
The streets were completely empty except for the Iraqi and the coalition forces ' patrols, and of course kids seizing the chance to play soccer!


We had all kinds of feelings in our minds while we were on our way to the ballot box except one feeling that never came to us, that was fear.
We could smell pride in the atmosphere this morning; everyone we saw was holding up his blue tipped finger with broad smiles on the faces while walking out of the center.


I couldn't think of a scene more beautiful than that.
From the early hours of the morning, People filled the street to the voting center in my neighborhood; youths, elders, women and men. Women's turn out was higher by the way. And by 11 am the boxes where I live were almost full!
Anyone watching that scene cannot but have tears of happiness, hope, pride and triumph.

The sounds of explosions and gunfire were clearly heard, some were far away but some were close enough to make the windows of the center shake but no one seemed to care about them as if the people weren't hearing these sounds at all.
I saw an old woman that I thought would get startled by the loud sound of a close explosion but she didn't seem to care, instead she was busy verifying her voting station's location as she found out that her name wasn't listed in this center.

How can I describe it!? Take my eyes and look through them my friends, you have supported the day of Iraq's freedom and today, Iraqis have proven that they're not going to disappoint their country or their friends.

Is there a bigger victory than this? I believe not.

I still recall the first group of comments that came to this blog 14 months ago when many of the readers asked "The Model?"… "Model for what?"
Take a look today to meet the model of courage and human desire to achieve freedom; people walking across the fire to cast their votes.

Could any model match this one!? Could any bravery match the Iraqis'!?
Let the remaining tyrants of the world learn the lesson from this day.

The media is reporting only explosions and suicide attacks that killed and injured many Iraqis s far but this hasn't stopped the Iraqis from marching towards their voting stations with more determination. Iraqis have truly raced the sun.

I walked forward to my station, cast my vote and then headed to the box, where I wanted to stand as long as I could, then I moved to mark my finger with ink, I dipped it deep as if I was poking the eyes of all the world's tyrants.
I put the paper in the box and with it, there were tears that I couldn't hold; I was trembling with joy and I felt like I wanted to hug the box but the supervisor smiled at me and said "brother, would you please move ahead, the people are waiting for their turn".

Yes brothers, proceed and fill the box!
These are stories that will be written on the brightest pages of history.

It was hard for us to leave the center but we were happy because we were sure that we will stand here in front of the box again and again and again.
Today, there's no voice louder than that of freedom.

No more confusion about what the people want, they have said their word and they said it loud and the world has got to respct and support the people's will.

God bless your brave steps sons of Iraq and God bless the defenders of freedom.

Aasha Al-Iraq….Aasha Al-Iraq….Aasha Al-Iraq.

Mohammed and Omar.


Friday, January 28, 2005
 
Go Iraq...go!
Less than 48 hours left before the people of Iraq experience free decision making for the first time in their country's modern history.
It's a moment of pure freedom but still surrounded by lots of dangers just like any beautiful rose surrounded by spikes.
There is fear from the enemies of freedom who have their weapons already prepared to intimidate us and stop us from choosing our future.
But at the same time we're full of hope as we know that we've put our feet on the right track and even if we make a bad choice once, we know that we will have the chance to reevaluate the situation again.
No more tyrants ruling the country for decades.

We're standing before a historic moment and I won't be exaggerating if I said that it's an important moment for the whole world; we're standing before a crossroads and everyone should watch and learn from the rebirth of Iraq.

Regardless of the winners in the se elections, those who opposed the elections and resisted the change will have to deal with the new reality.

In 48 hours from now, the dying dictatorships and their filthy tools, the terrorists, will find themselves facing an elected legitimate government in Iraq.

The tyrants nightmare is becoming reality, now they will have to deal with the scariest word in their dictionaries; THE PEOPLE'S CHOICE.
The terrorists have challenged the bravery of the Iraqi people but they messed with the wrong people. The people have accepted the challenge; democracy and elections are not a luxury for Iraqis, it's an issue of life or death. And the terror brutal campaign has only made the people more determined to go on with the change.

The results of some recent polls that have shown how determined Iraqis are to hold the elections might have surprised you, but they weren't a surprise for us; we're not the kind of people that kneel to terror and the sights of blood and beheadings.

Saddam had tried all tools of oppression, killing and torture he could find against our people (including WMD's) but he failed to make the people believe in his hateful regime. And that's why the people abandoned him and now, he and his regime are just a bad old tale from the past.

On Sunday, the sun will rise on the land of Mesopotamia. I can't wait, the dream is becoming true and I will stand in front of the box to put my heart in it.

Mohammed.


 
Elections and snow in Kurdistan. A bunch of nice photos from Kurdo.
 
A report about the first wave of Iraqi ex-pats casting their votes.

"Iraqis in Australia cast the first votes in their homeland's long-awaited election on Friday, and celebrated the historic moment by dancing in the streets.
Exiles gathered at nine polling stations around Australia, some proudly displaying the blue ink on their fingers which proved that they had cast their ballots"


Thanks to Fayrouz for the link.

 
Electoral debates for the 1st time in Samawa City.
A must read report from "Friends of democracy".
Thursday, January 27, 2005
 
Chrenkoff's "Good news from the Islamic world" Part 4, is now up:

Wednesday, January 26, 2005
 
In a surprising economic development, the exchange price of the Iraqi Dinar has jumped from its steady value in the past 12 months (1460/ 1 US $) to approximately (1300/ 1 US $) this morning!

This change in price was completely unexpected because the exchange price of Iraqi's currency has a long history of substantial drops prior to and during crises times. while having an overnight 10% increase in the exchange price indicates that the market is expecting something good to happen.

From my experience, wide fluctuations in the exchange price are only temporary in most of the cases and the price would return to a figure that is slightly different from the starting point, within days or a few weeks.

Maybe it's just a result of introducing coins back to the circulation, which were absent for over a decade. Or perhaps Iraqi trade-masters and economists have a different sense about the current "crises" and the post-election phase.

I can't tell but the coming weeks certainly can.


 
A funny and creative Volkswagen commercial via Baghdad Dweller

Q- Why suicide bombers must drive VOLKSWAGEN (polo)??

A- You can find the answer here.


Sunday, January 23, 2005
 
Our friends over at the Iraqi NGO "Friends of Democracy" have launched their websites that provides election news service just this morning.

It's now up in both, Arabic and English languages. The Arabic Site also provides free Arabic blogs using the recently created "Arabic blogging tool".
They're receiving many daily reports from a bunch of reporters distributed all over the country with the efforts focused mainly on the events related to the preparations of the "Electoral Commission of Iraq" and the Iraqi political parties for the 30th of Jan elections, as well as the people's opinions, concerns and hopes regarding that historic awaited day.

I can tell that their reporters are not as "professional" as the ones working for AP, Reuters or other news agencies and they don't use the same fancy equipment but I found their reports informative and worth reading as they provide access to news, observations and fine details from the daily life in the various cities of Iraq; the kind of things that are considered by the MSM as 'tiny and insignificant news'.

You will also find some posts that included interviews with government officials, politicians and ordinary people on the streets; with a ton of interesting photographs; covering different aspects of life in Iraq in these days.



 
I just want to add a short comment regarding this…thing.
Zarqawi claims that the rule of the majority violates the principle that laws must come from a divine source.

Has he forgotten that the opinion of the majority was respected in the early days of Islam? Has he forgotten that the prophet himself used to ask the citizens of the "Madina" for their opinion (and folow it) in more than one ocassion when a critical decision-making was needed?
I'd like also to ask Zarqawi another question: if the majority was to mean the Talibans or the radical Wahabists, would he be against that majority?

Let's ignore the ridiculous content of the tape and the sick ideology of its source and let's move to the motives of releasing this tape at this time.

Frankly speaking, I think there's a good possibility that this tape is either fake or mere show-business because this tactic used to be Saddam's defense method against rumors; whenever there was a rumor about him being sick or injured he would appear the very next day, all the day on TV, radio, newspapers and even toilet papers to prove that he's still alive and in power.

So it could be either Zarqawi himself trying to prove that these rumors (thanks Roger, I haven't been watching TV lately) are just rumors or it could be one (or a group) of his aides using his ghost to keep the people living in fear and to cover their loss.

Anyway, if the tape was true, then it isn't going to make any difference, because the people here already know that Zarqawi and his criminals are against the elections and they have realized that those terrorists will try everything to stop the elections from happening.

I mean, the threat didn't appear out of the blue; it was there all the time and despite that threat, the people have made up their mind and expressed their willingness to vote and take the risk.
Hundreds of car-bomb attacks and nearly 2 years of killings haven't stopped the majority of Iraqis from declaring their will to vote or to run for offices. Now is it possible that a stupid tape can do that? I don't think so.

If we agree to live in fear for one day then we're going to live in fear forever.
Today, the terrorists are using the elections as an excuse to murder the "infidels" and they will never run short of other insane excuses in the future, they will find something else; maybe soccer will justify Jihad against the "infidels"!



 
I have just found this site of the "Middle East media research institute" where you can view and read the transcripts of some Iraqi elections video advertisements.

Friday, January 21, 2005
 
When we said weeks ago on this blog that we expect 80 % of the eligible voters to participate in the elections we were considered to be far from representing the main stream opinion in Iraq.
Now, I guess the results of this poll which were published on the Washington Post tells the naysayers something and proves that we didn't build our predictions from vacuum.

Still, there's one part of the Post's piece that I don't agree with:

"The poll, which surveyed 1,900 Iraqis in all but two of the country's 18 provinces. Poor security made two in the far north, Nineveh and Dohuk, inaccessible. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points"

Because Duhok (not Dohuk) is one of the safest cities in the country. I understand that its proximity with Nieveh (Mosul) makes access rather difficult from that particular road but that's not the only road to reach the city which can be accessed from Erbil or even from the borders with Turkey.
What I want to say here is that the result would've been even higher if Duhok was included in the survey and the percentage would be undefined in only one province rather than two.

Now that the Iraqi people have made their choice clear, it's the interim government's and the coalition's responsibility to clear the way for the people so that they can practice their freedom of choice.




 
Arthur Chrenkoff provides a comparison between the counts of "positive and negative" stories (that are related to Iraq) in the media on one average day.

"But it's one thing to have a gut feeling about media negativity and another to know exactly how negative the coverage is"

Well said Arthur.

Thursday, January 20, 2005
 
Our turn to speak now.
Sarah Boxer (boxer@nytimes.com) in her latest piece on the NYT tried hard to put together some rotten limbs to produce a creature that satisfies her fantasy but she ended up introducing a new mutant to the readers and to the methods of journalism.
It wasn't a surprise for me as it was just another reproduction of the old ways of the corrupt side of the MSM in dealing with facts and events.

One short look at the "article" shows how naïve the writer was and how old the methods used in writing this post are. This post has fixed another nail in the casket of the gasping media.

I won't be exaggerating if I said that I find a close resemblance between the ways of the media and those of terror in dealing with events; both are using ugly and cheap maneuvers to get attention. These methods could be even horrible and dangerous but never convincing.
It doesn't seem that the media is working hard to catch up with time and progress; at least the performance says so.

Let's go back to the "article" itself and particularly to its beginning; the writer allowed herself to put all the accusations in the front and considered the possibility that we are Iraqis as the last possible theory on the list.

Maybe she thought it's too much for us to be Iraqis and love our country at the same time, so she added "who have mixed feelings…".
From Boxer's point of view, an Iraqi who supports America's efforts in liberating his country from the worst tyrant in modern history and rebuilding his country after that is either a paid agent or a mentally confused person. As if clear thinking is an exclusive gift that only a journalist from the NYT could possess while anyone outside her office is simply confused.

If Boxer had spent few more minutes in reading any of our posts she would've learnt that we're first of all, pro-Iraq. We never ceased to look forward for a new Iraq that is democratic and prosperous and the reason why we are pro-US is because we saw that America-the people and the administration-has made the right decision by liberating Iraq and this certainly serves the interests of both nations.

We're advertising for nothing but the new Iraq that we've always dreamed of and we believe that having America's support is a necessity and a vital element in the process.
We're still looking forward to seeing a strategic partnership between the two nations; a partnership from which both countries can benefit.

Boxer has forgotten to mention a single word about our efforts in building the "Arabic blogging tool". We've been doing that for months now with support from the American people via "Spirit of America".
She forgot to acknowledge that we're trying through this project to spread freedom of speech in the Arabic world by giving our people the opportunity to voice their opinions through a tool that overrides the barrier of language.
Now, as I understood it, journalists are usually in support of anything that brings freedom of speech, and more tolerance and understanding while lessening violence.

But maybe it's just that this tool will be the response that Boxer and her colleagues fear the most; they will have to deal with thousands of Iraq the models when our countrymen begin using this tool.
The fact that her pathetic article might endanger us and our friends over at Friends of Democracy will not stop us from continuing the work we're doing and we're determined to accomplish what we've started because we feel responsible towards our readers and we don't write our posts to throw stupid accusations here and there.

As much as I was annoyed by that "article" I cannot describe my happiness when I began reading the reactions and defense posts and comments from our brothers in the big family of the blogosphere as well as from our regular readers.
These were much bigger than that mutant little incoherent group of words of Boxer's.
I would like to thank you all my friends and once again I promise that I won't disappoint you.
I can write a book about this "article" that has more holes than Swiss cheese (we have Swiss cheese here incase you don't know that Sarah!) but I'm not going to waste my time or our readers' on this as we all have more important things to do.


Mohammed.
 
Radio Interview This Friday Jan 21
Radio Station WBAI 99.5 FM New York City has asked for an interview and Mohammed has accepted. We have a satellite phone this time, so we're hoping for better luck in getting a connection into Baghdad.

On-Air Host: Mario A. Murillo
Studio line: +1 212-209-2900

Scheduled Date & Time: The radio station will attempt to contact Mohammed during a two hour period starting at 2:30pm (Baghdad). The state of telecommunications in Baghdad is not the best so it is impossible to predict the exact time the brothers will be on. The interview should last between 20 and 30 minutes.

Friday, January 21, 2005 at 02:30:00 PM (Iraq/Baghdad)
Friday, January 21, 2005 at 06:30:00 AM (USA/New York/New York City)
Friday, January 21, 2005 at 11:30:00 Zulu

Links:
Live Streaming
Mario's Show 'Wakeup Call' Daily Descriptions
Tuesday, January 18, 2005
 
As I promised you yesterday guys, here are some pictures for the elections' posters from Baghdad.
1.... 2.... 3.... 4.... 5.... 6.... 7
Monday, January 17, 2005
 
SAY NO TO AL-JAZEERA
Iraqi sites guide has linked to a message on sotalIraq.com (voice of Iraq).
The message calls all Iraqi politicians, journalists, thinkers and writers to boycott Al-Jazeera and not to accept any invitation from this network to appear on its shows, especially Al-Ittijah Al-Mo'aakis (the opposite/direction).

This program tries always to show the real Iraqi patriots as traitors, thieves or at least as puppets of America and the West and denies them the right to defend themselves and their points of view as the host is keen on interrupting them every other 5 words while giving the other guest (who is usually a huge fan of Saddam and other dictators) most of the program's time to say whatever he wants including using abusive language against the guest on the other side of the table. Not to mention that the phone calls that come during the program's time are filtered in a highly selective way that passes all the calls that are approved by Al-Jazeera and 10% of the calls that agree with the poor Iraqi guest.

And actually this has reminded me of an interesting thing; almost all the polls that are conducted by Al-Jazeera end up with similar results and I believe that the ratio of 81% vs. 19% is the most common outcome of these polls (need I tell you on which side these 81% are!?).

The site is accepting signatures from Iraqis inside and outside Iraq to support this message which condemns the extreme bias of Al-Jazeera regarding the situation in Iraq and the obvious anti-Iraqi, anti-democracy ideology of the network.

The message has also referred to the latest scandal related to the suspicious relationships of this network with the heads of the ex-regime in Iraq, namely Uday and Abd Hmood.
This scandal-which is not the first and certainly not the last to be uncovered-was brought to the surface in a documentary broadcasted on Al-Hurra TV last week.

Here are some pictures that show the former manager of Al-Jazeera Mohammed J. Al-Ali and Faisal Al-Qassim who runs the particular show I mentioned above with Uday, Abd Hmood and the Iraqi Intelligence officer in Doha/Qatar (why am I not surprized?)

12345 (sorry for the poor quality; this is all I could find)

More than 861 Iraqis (including myself) have signed the message until this moment.
Here's the link to the message (In Arabic).



 
I have received this photograph from friend in kirkuk. It shows the locals standing in a line waiting for their turn at the gate of a voters' registration office.



Some of you have asked me to post photos for the signs and posters on the parties and candidates on the streets, so I'll try to take a tour and shoot some photos, hopefully by tomorrow.

 
Arthur Chrenkoff has just posted the latest part of his amazing, super-informative series (Good news from Iraq). I have quoted a few interesting pieces here:

**"Brig. Gen. Jeffery Hammond of the 1st Cavalry Division, says Sadr City is the safest place in or around Baghdad. About 18,000 people have reconstruction jobs, he says, earning about $6 a day. 'Sadr City is what the future of Iraq can look like,' he says. Those who were once taking up arms are now talking democracy. 'Before, the men were buying black cloth for their (martyrs') banners. Now for the election, we are buying white cloths' for posters, says candidate Fatah al-Sheikh."


**"Day after day, Carlos Valenzuela faces the same question: Can legitimate elections take place amid the chaos and bedlam that is contemporary Iraq? 'I say, "Of course,"' says the soft-spoken Colombian who is the chief U.N. electoral officer in Iraq. 'Look,' he continues from his tiny office in this fearful capital's fortified Green Zone, 'in my own country we have elections that are not perfect, that have been marred by violence and terrible intimidation. But still people go to the polls. And still the results are accepted as legitimate'."



**"Interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi simply smiled during the live television show when a man called to praise terrorist mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The Iraqi leader then moved on, offering to find information about a woman's detained son and see why a student didn't get into the graduate program of his choice.
"The surprisingly frank hour-long call-in program, 'The Iraqi Podium,' is a rarity for the region, giving Iraqis the chance to pepper Allawi with questions, from the mundane to the serious. Judging by the show's popularity, Iraqis are taking advantage.
"The show's host, Abdul-Karim Hammad, said he proposed the show to Allawi, who agreed. It may be a campaign ploy as Allawi tries to burnish his image ahead of Jan. 30 elections, but from the nature of the questions, it appears the calls aren't screened.
"I told him the one condition, which is that you have to accept anything the people say even if they insult you,' Hammad said. 'He said it was fine, as long as he wasn't criticized personally, but they can say anything they want about his work."



**The Zahko Military Academy in northern Iraq will shortly be renovated at a cost of $5.2 million. "Before the Iraqi freedom war, we only trained cadets from Kurdistan. Since the war we have begun to train cadets from all provinces of Iraq. For instance, cadets from Baghdad, Baquba, Kut and Mosul are sent here for training by the Ministry of Defense," says the Academy Commandant Maj. Gen. Shihab Duhoki. Adds Rich Maskil, the project manager for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Northern District: "The collaboration between the Kurds and Arabs is a great thing. It's a big difference going from Saddam Hussein's campaign against the Kurds to where we are now -- the Kurds and Arabs training and fighting together to provide security for a free Iraq." And in Tikrit, the new headquarters for the 30th Brigade, Iraqi Army have recently been opened.

A hunderd other stories and links from Chrenkoff here.
Sunday, January 16, 2005
 
You can find some parts of the Iraqi government's security plan for the elections, here.

I learnt this morning from Al-Sabah newspaper (that published more detailed information) that there will be also a curfew from 9 pm to 5 am starting from the 27th of Jan. and traveling among provinces will be prohibited as well.
And considering that terrorists might use bombs hidden in bags or briefcases (like what happened in the Kerbala and Baghdad massacres near the shrines last year), the plan also included that no bags will be allowed on the streets and walking nearby the voting centers will be monitored and restricted too.

Meanwhile, posters and signs for the political parties and individual candidates are covering almost every single wall on the streets of Baghdad, leaving no place for the terrorists to write their hatred messages (which are by the way full of stupid typos! from which you can tell what kind of ignorants those criminals are) and the elections posters have become so numerous that the terrorists would need to spend a decade rearing them off to find a spot for their ugly slogans.

The voice of elections and democracy is now much louder than that of terror.
We have passed the hardest part and it's now less than 14 days to go my friends, let's hope this works out.

Saturday, January 15, 2005
 
Elections discussed in a Baghdad cafe'.
A nice story from Al-Shahbandar cafe' in Baghdad on the Washington Post.
It's a long one but worth reading to the last line.
Thanks to Andrew Sullivan.
 
This is the funniest "weapon" I've ever heard of!!
It's beyond hilarious.
Just try to picture OBL and Zawahiri after one of these bombs is dropped on their camp!
 
Kurdo provides some interesting information about the current cost of housing (and meat!) in the province of Sulaimaniyah.
A short story about some freakish Santa is also mentioned there!

Friday, January 14, 2005
 
Sorry guys, the expected interview didn't happen; Mohammed and Ali didn't receive a call from the radio station probably because of the bad situation of the phones' network here in Baghdad especially in the afternoon which is the peak time.
 
Radio Interview This Friday Morning
Radio Station WBAI 99.5 FM New York City has asked for an interview and Mohammed and Ali have both accepted. The station and the host lean way to the left so if the host opens up the phone lines, I'm sure Ali and Mohammed would appreciate a friendly call. Here are the details.

On-Air Host: Mario A. Murillo
Studio line: +1 212-209-2900

Scheduled Date & Time: The radio station will attempt to contact Ali and Mohammed during a two hour period starting at 2:30pm (Baghdad). The state of telecommunications in Baghdad is not the best so it is impossible to predict the exact time the brothers will be on. The interview should last between 15 and 20 minutes.

Friday, January 14, 2005 at 02:30:00 PM (Iraq/Baghdad)
Friday, January 14, 2005 at 06:30:00 AM (USA/New York/New York City)
Friday, January 14, 2005 at 11:30:00 Zulu

Links:
Live Streaming
Mario's Show 'Wakeup Call' Daily Descriptions
Thursday, January 13, 2005
 
The ArabicBBC site put up a forum for the readers to discuss the subject of some of the "militant groups" that distributed leaflets threatening the Iraqis who decide to participate in the elections, whether voters or candidates.
The total number of commentators was 141; the Iraqis were 104 and 37 were Arabs from other countries till the post was prepared.
89 of the participating Iraqis were strongly with the elections and determined to go to the boxes on the elections day in spite of the threats.
15 were against the elections, for different reasons.

13 of the Arab participants were also against the elections while the rest of them (24) were supportive of the Iraqis in holding the elections on time.

I will not try to offer my optimistic comments and views about the situation in Iraq, instead I will shut up and let my fellow Iraqis speak for themselves and let you then decide what you think about it.




"I encourage all the good people in Iraq to vote, it’s the only way to get out of this destruction"

Jasim Mohammed-Iraq


"No one can rule Iraqis but Iraqis themselves and the voting box is the only way to achieve a legitimate patriotic government which will be respected by the Iraqi people and the world and it will cut the way for these entire terrorist who come from outside the country and Saddam's orphans who support them. They are dreaming about the return of the darkness after we felt the sun of freedom"

Gati'- Iraqi in the UK


"Iraq should build a strong army and well trained police so that we can reserve the security and stability in our country and get rid of the foreign forces but how we can do that if these groups who call themselves resistance keep killing the Iraqi soldiers and policemen? Is this real resistance??"


Reyadh Mahdi Salih – Baghdad


"I am calling all Iraqis who claim to be loyal to Iraq and say that they are patriots: free your minds and head to the boxes"

Zayed –Kerbala

"I salute all the brave Iraqis and I wish them all the best on the coming elections"

Mo'ayed- Bahrain


"Who say that the results of these elections are already decided is actually insulting the Iraqi people because it means that Iraqis are so naïve and they only follow orders form the occupiers"

Abdul Rahman – UAE


"Elections must be done and all the Iraqi people should participate in it
so that we can get out of this mess. As for those Arab who says that we are going to elect an American that only has an Iraqi face, I tell them: what about the Arab leaders who are Americans, only with an Arabic face?"

Ahmed Hashim –Iraq

"The people of Mousil will vote and Zarqawee and his gang will not stop us
We will vote even if we have to do it secretly"

Ahmed – Mousil


"If those armed groups refuse the elections they should give us some alternatives and I ask them here: what are your alternatives for elections? They just want to rule the country against the will of the people as they did in the past"

Nawfel M. Ali – Qatar


"If some Arab think they are not occupied by America they are wrong, whose house is from glass should not through stone at people"

Ali-Sweden


"Elections were our demand from the beginning and we will keep working hard to have the elections even if it takes all of our lives the killing and destruction that you see now are the taxes that we should pay to get a better life for us and for the coming generations"

Hassan Kamil-Iraq- Nasyiriya

"I want to ask everyone who calls for delaying the election: is the situation now better than it used to be six months ago?
We should all support the democratic process to get rid of both, terrorist and occupiers"

Zain-Baghdad


"I consider all these groups out of Islam and they don’t want the best for Iraqis
I'll go to give my vote in spite of all the threats"
Hussain Taey –Baghdad


"I want to ask those who say that we can't hold elections until the troops leave: will they participate in elections if these troops left Iraq? And who will have the right to ask these troops to leave?
Only the legitimate government can do so and this legitimate government comes through elections which you refuse to do"

Adnan –Baghdad


"Those who wish to see Iraq unstable and those who commit all these crimes and cause all this destruction are terrorist and nothing but terrorists but they use Islam as a cover. I see that all my fellow citizen want peace and prosperity while these criminals are the remnant of the Ba'ath and the old dictator regime and I will keep saying: down with these terrorist and long live the Iraqi people and the Iraqi police and the Iraqi National Guard who work day and night to protect Iraq"

Mohammed Saleh – Baghdad


"I wish to see election happen in its planned date and the sooner the better for my country. Peace and democracy are our dreams that we awaited for a long time.
Those who don’t want elections are the enemies of Iraq. I pray to God every day for the elections to be on time"

Lamya – Baghdad


"All Iraqis should enjoy democracy but not under the American guardianship and British colonialism. The genuine Iraqi groups have the right to stop these elections from happening"

Abu Baker-Mauritania


"After I read all the above opinions, I would like to ask those who call themselves "Mujahideen" what do you want?!
For God's sake, read the comments of Iraqis; all of them reject you and call you criminals, stop the killing and the destruction and ask for forgiveness from God you and get out of Iraq. Nobody wants you there and no one wants your jihad"

Mohammed – Egypt


"I want to ask all those Arabs: do you have any suggestions that we can use instead of elections?"

Hayder Hummadi-Baghdad


"I am against any elections right now because the country is still occupied"

Saad Hussain-Baghdad



"The elections are the best way to build the free Iraq"

Karema-Baquba -Diyala


"We will not be afraid any more, we will vote for our precious Iraq"


Mohammed Baghdady – Baghdad



"I want to ask the Arabs a favor: please leave us alone and let us live in freedom and peace"


Raysan-Baghdad



"If those fighters were really Muslims they would not be killing the Iraqi police, army and innocent civilians. We will not submit to their threats and we will vote in spite of them"

Muosa Al Ruba'ey-Baghdad


"I'll shout out loudly and ask all Iraqis to vote and not to listen to the masked terrorists who came from outside, let us be one hand to build a new and free democratic Iraq"

Mohammed Al Juboury- Iraqi in KSA

"We will crush the terrorists and crush all those who try to threat the Iraqi nation and we will vote"

Anwar-Baghdad


"I'll go to the voting center even if it means that I risk my life, elections are a historic chance that we cannot afford to waste"

Ussama Alrussafy-Baghdad



"All good Iraqis should vote for a better life for our children"

Mohammed Alsamaray –Samara


"For sure the resistance will risk the lives of the voters and this will negatively effect the elections which will follow the occupiers' rules"

Hassan abdul Mu'iz – Egypt


"As Iraqis, we will go to vote even if the terrorists planted their bombs inside the boxes, because this is our dream which we paid millions of lives for it and I would like to ask everyone not to exaggerated the size of these terrorist they are only a few Saddam lovers with criminals from outside the country"

Azhar- Basra


"I swear to Allah that we will not accept anything but free elections and we will have this right even if the terrorists cut us into pieces"

Mahdy Hadi-Baghdad

"I think the upcoming elections will be a disaster for all the dictatorships in the region.
Those who try to intimidate the people are just a gang of criminals who use the name of Islam as a cover. Islam is innocent from what they do and no religion accepts their doings."

Mohammed Hayder- Iran


"They are broke orphans of the Ba'ath regime. We will not be afraid and we will not hesitate and we will vote"

Adel-Basra


"I can see that all the above opinions are pro occupation and I think that the BBC is doing this because Britain is America's partner"

Mohammed Sudky –Egypt


"I m from Mosul and I would like to declare to the whole world that I would love to vote but unfortunately it's impossible for me as my town has been occupied by Ba'athists and and the Salafis for two months now and I put all the responsibility on the Iraqi government and coalition forces. Don’t they know that there's no sign of the authorities in this city?"

Jalal Hayder –Mousel


"I'm Sunni and I will go and vote because this makes me feel alive and I will not allow myself to be afraid of the terrorists because if I listen to them then I'll be dead"
Mohammed al kurdy- kerkuk


"Go away cowards. We will go to visit our beloved box!"

Menjal-Baghdad

"Wise people will not vote, not because of the threats but because this election is an American play"

M. Uthman- Sudan


"I'll go to vote and I will not fear the terrorist. I will vote on the 30th and I don’t care if I could get killed by the bombs of the killers because my vote will be for my kids' future"

Ali Baghdadi-Baghdad


"It's hard to convince the Arabs about elections, did we succeed in convincing them that Saddam is a killer?"

Raeed –Iraqi in Sweden


"Even If they cut our bodies or burn us we will vote despite the fact that the terrorist still control my city.
My vote will go to Al Yawer and Allawi if they hang the killers who control the streets of my town before the elections' day"

Omar Wajih –Mousil


"We spend thousands of days in Saddam's needless wars that brought only disasters to my country.
How about a war of our choice for one day to rebuild our country, a war against the terrorist's threats?"

Abdullah-Baghdad


Tuesday, January 11, 2005
 
A civil war!?
With the elections' day getting closer, I'm hearing more voices warning of the possibility of a civil war in Iraq after the elections and I want to say that I do not find that theory the least acceptable; the theory of the civil war doesn't match any of the facts on the ground and it's based on visions of people who have never lived among Iraqis and have no real-if any-experience in the region.
The coming days will be a test for these theories but I'm almost positive that nothing like that is going to happen and so I don't need to wait to find out.

Most of such theories are based on the assumption that the Sunni will not approve the outcome of the elections if the She'at got the majority of votes and that this disapproval would take the form of a widespread insurgency in all the areas inhabited by a Sunni majority and then the She'at would be forced to fight to defend their existence and the whole country gets into an endless circle of violence.

The above theory looks strong and points out a possibility that can not be ignored (in the eyes of the theorists). I don't call this over-pessimism but I attribute it to a lack of clear vision and to looking at the case from one angle. I will take a stop here to review the elements of the theory:

The theory is built on two key elements; the first of which is that the Sunni boycott the elections and the second is that the She'at make a flawless win.
Looking at the first element I see that this boycott has been over estimated; there are parties that have a majority of Sunni members and have already enlisted themselves for the elections and all the parties in general have Sunni members and in addition to that, there are Sunni individuals who have announced themselves as candidates.
All those people didn't come from nowhere and they all have their support in the Sunni areas or why do you think they would run for elections if they know that the Sunni will boycott the elections?

Another point to mention is that there is a difference between the Sunni and the She'at regarding the authority of the clergy, and the Sunni don't have a common leadership or clergy that called for the boycott.
If someone shows up saying that he represents all the Sunni and he calls them to boycott the elections they will not follow his orders because such a common leadership that all the Sunni follow does not exist.

However, this assumption was inspired from the fact that most of the military operations take place in areas of Sunni majority. This is true because the terrorists were able to find who supports them in these areas but it's also true that not all the Sunni support the terrorists and we can always hear voices coming from Sunni areas calling for elections in spite of the threats the terrorists keep sending.
As a matter of fact, people in the areas of Sunni majority might find themselves not willing to go to the voting centers out of fear not because they decided to boycott the elections.

And this means that the theory of a widespread insurgency is not realistic because there will be a percentage that is going to vote and there will be another percentage that would like to vote but can not do that because of fear; all those will certainly not contribute to this alleged insurgency.
Anyway, the percentage of voters' participation is expected to be lower in Sunni areas than in other areas in the south or the north.

During the past 18 months, the She'a and the Kurds had the majority (about 80 %)of seats in the interim government with most of the decision making positions in their hands but that didn't lead to a civil war and I want to remind you here that the voices that are expecting the boycott and the civil war to happen are the same voices that expected the eruption of an uprising when the government decided to attack the terrorists in Najaf and Fallujah but we saw in both cases that only the terrorists who started the war remained fighting in the cities while the people, the citizens of the cities whether Sunni or She'at didn't show any support to the terrorists and left them to fight alone. So why would we now expect the Sunni to join the terrorists in a widespread insurgency?

The second factor or element required by this civil war theory is a big win for the She'at in the elections. And we need to stop at this point and discuss it for a while; everyone considers this win inevitable. Yes, it's true that the list of the "United Coalition" which includes the biggest She'at parties is getting a lot of support but this list can not get a vast majority as the "Iraqi List" is getting a lot of support too, as well as the "Iraqi Communist Party" which will obviously get a good percentage of the votes based on what we saw in the latest polls.
We should also not forget that the alliance of the Kurdish parties will get a considerable percentage of the votes.
So it's not expected for the "United Coalition's list" to get more than 40 % of the seats of the national assembly.

But suppose they win with a vast majority of the votes, what's going to happen then?
Will they engage in a civil war with the militants?
The She'at leaderships received too many blows but the refused to engage in an armed conflict with the terrorists. Then why do we expect them to push their people and the country in general into a war when they're in office and legitimately representing the people.
This contradicts with logic because when the She'at get to power through elections they cannot afford to lose that legitimacy by calling their sect's people to carry arms.
Instead, they will have the right to deal with the militants as outlaws according to the law.
The She'at have sacrificed a lot to get to this point and it doesn't make sense if they breach the law that will be written with their approval and support and lets not forget that they She'at are not going to be alone in this; there will be Kurds, Turkmen, Communists and Sunni standing on their side in the government too.

But the main element that prevents a civil war in Iraq remains the presence of the super power that supports the elected government.
With the presence of this super power, no one would dare to fight in open field and the insurgency would be limited to small operations carried out by individuals or small groups that can not show themselves on the streets more than few hours.

There are rumors propagating here in Baghdad and other cities about thousands of militants going down to the streets and taking over control on the day of elections; such rumors are made up by the systems of the ex-regime and they know very well that appearing in public and in thousands means their end.
The anti-change groups have lost the ability to fight in large numbers and in large areas.
I expect the terrorists to keep their operations after the elections in the same limited manner we have right now, maybe the frequency will increase but they will not be able to spread their operations nationwide. And they will have to make a decision; either they give up and accept the new situation after the elections, and this will not happen as long as the neighboring countries keep supporting them.

Or they decide to fight to the end and this way they will eventually lose because the other camp (the government and the MNF) have greater resources that allows them to win the battle over the terrorists.
Another factor remains here, which is time and I don't see it moving in a direction that favors the outlaws side.

The groups that oppose the elections say that elections cannot take place with the country being under occupation.
One thing I'm sure of is that a civil war will be inevitable if the US withdrew from Iraq. Close your eyes for a moment and try to picture the situation if the US decided to leave now.
Those who still live in the illusions of the past will not have a role in the future of the region.

Finally, I want to say that I think what happened in Palestine yesterday and what happened in Afghanistan before that proves that if the people really want to have elections, then they can do it and it's another indication that we're moving on the right track here and it's another accomplishment for the ongoing change in the region.

Mohammed.
Sunday, January 09, 2005
 
Ali is trying to find answers for one of the most critical questions nowadays:

Is Islam compatible with democracy?

"What I'm trying to say is that no religion in its present form is compatible with democracy and both democracy and religion can only co-exist if that religion is marginalized. In my mind all present religions, if you take them from the mouths of their advocators, being Imams, priests or whatever they are called in other religions and look at them with a modern rational mind, are (pardon me) so full of sh*t! (Note that I'm not talking about the core of those beliefs but how they're presented to us now)".

I think this post is a must read. You can find the rest here.


Saturday, January 08, 2005
 
A translated report about an election poll from Al-sabah.

Thanks to Ladybird for the translation.
Actually I've heard about this poll few days ago but couldn't have the time to translate it.
The headlines of this poll were:

1-The poll was of 4974 Iraqis living in and around Baghdad.


2-Will the security problems cause you to?
Not come out and vote the day of elections = 18.3%
Come out and vote the day of elections = 78.3%
No opinion = 3.4%


3-Do you support military action against the terrorists?Yes = 87.7 %No = 11.1%
Don’t Know = 1.2%


If these were the results that appeared after taking samples from in and around Baghdad which is considered to be the most dangerous area in the country (and inhabited by lots of Sunni Iraqis by the way!), then what would the results look like if the samples were taken from Basra or Erbil??


Powered by Blogger