{The Guru took a little vacation time the last few days. So let's catch up. In the meantime, please consider a contribution to red state Democrats on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page today.}
Polling Round-Up
Minnesota: Survey USA: Republican Norm Coleman 41, Democrat Al Franken 40, Independent Dean Barkley 14. As SSP notes, Survey USA has long shown significant leads for Coleman, so this is a big statement of a poll.
New Jersey: Marist poll: Senator Frank Lautenberg enjoys a double-digit lead over Newt-Gingrich-bootlick Dick Zimmer, 47-36 among registered voters and 51-40 among likely voters with leaners. Senator Lautenberg also enjoys a nearly 2-to-1 60-33 lead among independents.
Colorado: Harstad Strategic Research (Udall internal poll): Democratic Congressman Mark Udall 45, Backwards Bob Schaffer 34. Like Oregon, an internal, but nonetheless heartening.
New Mexico: Rasmussen Reports: Democratic Congressman Tom Udall 51, far-right-wing Republican Steve Pearce 44.
Maine: Research 2000: Republican Susan Collins still holds a significant lead over Democratic Congressman Tom Allen, 57-38. Congressman Allen still isn't doing enough to trumpet Collins' allegiance to right-wing Republicans and the Bush-Cheney administration. He better take full advantage of any debates Republican Collins comes out of hiding to attend.
Minnesota, Oregon & Colorado: Based on their own boneheaded oversights, Republicans Norm Coleman, Gordon Smith, and Bob Schaffer may have cost themselves hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars by disregarding laws regarding campaign advertising. First, Republican Norm Coleman of Minnesota was called out for not meeting the standards of standing by his ads. Then, Republican Gordon Smith of Oregon was called out. Television stations in both states have contacted the FEC and FCC regarding how to proceed. And now Republican Bob Schaffer of Colorado is being called out for the same violation. Of course, all three Republican camps are dismissing the claims - you see, legal standards don't apply to Republicans. We'll await rulings from the FEC.
Louisiana: WVUE-TV New Orleans decimates the credibility of recent-Republican John Neely Kennedy as it debunks his grossly misleading ad falsely attacking Senator Mary Landrieu:
Debates Set
New Mexico: The debates have been scheduled between Democratic Congressman Tom Udall and far-right-wing Republican Steve Pearce. In addition to their October 12 Meet the Press debate, they will also debate on October 15 on KOB-TV; on October 18 on KRQE-TV; and, on October 26 on KOAT-TV.
The Rothenberg Political Report has updated its 2008 Senate Ratings from July 30 to the new September 14 ratings. The changes: New Mexico moves from Lean Takeover to Likely Takeover, joining Virginia; Alaska moves from Toss-Up to Lean Takeover, joining New Hampshire; Oregon moves from Narrow Incumbent Advantage to Toss-Up; North Carolina jumps from Clear Incumbent Advantage to Toss-Up; and, in one disappointing item, Minnesota backslides from Toss-Up to Narrow Incumbent Advantage.
Sen. John Ensign says he has no interest in serving another term as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. For some of his Republican colleagues, the feeling is mutual.
In a year in which Republicans are widely expected to lose between three and seven seats in the Senate, Ensign has made himself a target by poor-mouthing the party's prospects and bad-mouthing some other GOP senators for not doing more to help.
New Hampshire: In the classless and dishonest tradition of Sprintin' John Sununu, the Sununu campaign attacks the community organizing experience of popular Democratic former Governor Jeanne Shaheen. Wow, the Sununu camp must be entirely devoid of any ideas.
One of the primary ways to Expand the Map of competitive U.S. Senate seats in 2008 is to empower with resources Democrats in states that Republicans hope to take for granted, so that they can focus on more traditionally battleground states. Four such red states in 2008 are Mississippi, Kansas, Georgia, and Tennessee, where former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, former Congressman Jim Slattery, former state legislator Jim Martin, and former Tennessee Democratic Party Chair Bob Tuke are running to oust ethically questionable Roger Wicker, Bush-cover-up-artist Pat Roberts, Shameless Saxby Chambliss, and Lamar!, respectively.
You can blow the Senate Guru's mind by helping meet the below goals in the week ahead by contributing to these red state Democrats via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page:
Red state Democrat
Currently At
Goal Amount
Distance to Goal
Bob Tuke
$40
$100
$60 to go
Jim Slattery
$350
$500
$150 to go
Ronnie Musgrove
$413 $478
$500
$87 $22 to go
Jim Martin
$760 $835
$1,000
$240 $165 to go
$100 makes a huge difference. $10 makes a huge difference. We're now less than two months from Election Day. Supporting these red state Democrats at this critical juncture expands the map, makes the NRSC sweat even more, and increases Democrats' chances for overcoming historic Republican obstructionism in the U.S. Senate. Let's keep that momentum going!
Compare the focus on issues and records in the ads by the Democrats with the misleading distortions and utter lack of anything remotely substantive in the Republican ads.
Democrats
Georgia: American hero and former U.S. Senator Max Cleland notes Jim Martin's record of service while Martin discusses the need to make the economy work for the middle class again.
Alaska: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich stresses the need to live up to the legacy of his father, the late Congressman Nick Begich, for the next generation of Alaskans. Asks Mayor Begich, "What do I do today that twenty years from now or thirty years from now makes a difference in that nine-year-old that I see today?"
North Carolina: State Senator Kay Hagan compares her record of balancing budgets with Bush-rubber-stamp Elizabeth Dole's Washington where the government is $9 trillion in debt and Dole helps Bush pass tax breaks for Big Oil and companies that ship American jobs overseas.
Virginia: Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner responds to unpopular Republican Jim Gilmore's dishonest attacks and highlights his own record of fiscal responsibility and economic success.
Minnesota: Al Franken spotlights Republican Norm Coleman's long history of graciously accepting the largesse of special interests.
Colorado: The NRSC borders on some old-fashioned race-baiting as it slurs Democratic Congressman Mark Udall as "shifty as Middle Eastern sand."
Kentucky: In this drivel, the NRSC betrays how truly desperate they are by attacking Democratic Senate nominee Bruce Lunsford with footage of the NRSC's videographers harrassing people Lunsford knows. Seriously, that's the junk that the NRSC is spewing out these days.
Oklahoma: Rather than discuss low-priority distractions like energy independence or health care accessibility or job creation, Jim "In Denial" Inhofe offers misleading attacks against State Senator Andrew Rice while focusing on the incredibly high-priority and not-at-all-divisive issues of "traditional marriage" and "taxpayer-funded abortions."
Do these Republican smears anger you? The best revenge is a contribution to terrific Democratic candidates for Senate via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.
After months of pleading with his Republican Senate colleagues to give more to the NRSC, NRSC Chair John Ensign sent $300,000 from his own campaign account to the NRSC coffers. The Guru notes that, as of the end of June, Ensign had $1.1 million in his campaign bankroll. So, if Ensign really wanted to make a statement, he could send another $800,000 to the NRSC from his campaign account. Now, that would be something.
In its most recent volley, the NRSC has dispersed about $1.4 million to a few races, including "$280,000 in Colorado, $310,000 in Minnesota, $160,000 in Mississippi, $190,000 in Oregon and $450,000 in North Carolina." The Guru is especially pleased with the NRSC's expenditure in Colorado, wasted money for the GOP.
Minnesota: The Minnesota primaries happened Tuesday, and Democrat Al Franken, Republican Norm Coleman, and Independent Dean Barkley easily fended off primary challengers to secure their respective Parties' nominations. Meanwhile, WaPo's Cillizza declares, "Democrats have shown they area ready to go toe to toe with the Coleman campaign over the last eight weeks of the contest."
Montana: New Rasmussen Reports poll: If Michigan has you worried, you won't like Montana. Democratic Senator Max Baucus 64, Republican (I guess) Bob Kelleher 31. Quite the nail-biter!
Oregon: Popular Democratic Senator Ron Wyden is out front blasting dishonest ads from right-wingers attacking Democratic Speaker Jeff Merkley. It's not just shady right-wing organizations doing the lying, though. Republican Gordon Smith is flat-out lying about Merkley's record on health care and seniors, and Merkley is wasting no time setting the record straight. Elsewhere, just for funsies, the political cartoon meets the Fox game show, Gordon Smith style.
Colorado: The YouTube YouChoose '08 debate series now has posted responses from Democratic Congressman Mark Udall and Backwards Bob Schaffer on questions regarding the second amendment, renewable energy, higher education, water rights, and the Employee Free Choice Act.
Virginia: Popular Democratic former Governor Mark Warner has earned the support of two groups who typically lend their weight to Republican candidates: the Fraternal Order of Police and the Chamber of Commerce. Does anyone support unpopular Republican former Gov. Jim Gilmore?
Oklahoma: Possibly-sociopathic Jim "In Denial" Inhofe released an inflammatory and misleading attack ad against State Senator Andrew Rice. And what issues do Inhofe consider to be the top issues worthy of discussion? Energy independence? Nope. Foreign policy? Nuh-uh. Creating jobs? Try again. The key issues Inhofe misleads voters on in this ad are gay marriage and "taxpayer-funded abortions." Does Inhofe's utter idiocy aggravate the hell out of you? Then get your revenge on Inhofe by sending Andrew Rice a contribution via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.
Texas: State Representative and Lieutenant Colonel Rick Noriega rightfully highlights that Bush-rubber-stamp John Cornyn backed George W. Bush 95% of the time. Seriously, every single speech Noriega delivers for the rest of the campaign should be littered with George W. Bush references.
Alaska: Indicted Ted Stevens' lawyers are dragging out Stevens' corruption case, further imperiling his re-election effort against Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. Keep it comin', Stevens' legal team!
New Mexico: October 12 has been set as the date for the Meet the Press debate between Democratic Congressman Tom Udall and far-right-wing Republican Steve Pearce. Time-permitting, the Guru may try to liveblog the debate, so stay tuned.
Delaware: In the DE-Gov Democratic primary, Treasurer Jack Markell beat Lieutenant Governor John Carney. So, is Carney's consolation prize front-runner status for a Senate vacancy appointment if/when Joe Biden becomes our next Vice President?
Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley offers more full-throated populism as he argues against tax breaks for big corporations that ship American jobs overseas.
The DSCC questions the judgment of Republican Norm Coleman for continuing to blindly support George W. Bush's endless Iraq War.
New Mexico Congressman Tom Udall fires back at far-right-wing Republican Steve Pearce for Pearce's allegiance to Big Oil and opposition to alternative energy development.
Virginia: New Survey USA poll: Another boring 20+ point lead for popular Democratic former Governor Mark Warner over unpopular Republican former Gov. Jim Gilmore, 56-35.
Michigan: New Public Policy Polling poll: The NRSC ought to begin investing in the 2008 Michigan Senate race as Senator Carl Levin's lead over Republican Jack Hoogendyk is down to 15 points, 51-36. Go for it, NRSC!
Colorado, New Hampshire & Alaska: Speaking of the NRSC, it has released three polls, each funnier than the previous. The Republican partisans see a statistical dead heat between Democratic Congressman Mark Udall and Backwards Bob Schaffer, 40-39; an even more hilarious statistical dead heat between popular Democratic former Governor Jeanne Shaheen and Sprintin' John Sununu, 46-44; and, a narrow 46-44 lead for indicted Ted Stevens over Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich made even funnier by the poll's finding that Stevens' approve-disapprove is 65-30. Can polls go on The Gong Show?
Six years ago, a lobbying firm representing more than a dozen defense companies that were seeking appropriations earmarks opened an unusual side business: The lobbyists hired someone to provide campaign fundraising and PAC management services to Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), who at the time was ranking member of the Senate Appropriations Committee.
Since then, Stevens has paid the firm, Robison International, about $350,000 to handle finances for his campaign and leadership political action committee; the firm's clients have snagged tens of millions of dollars in earmarks in annual appropriations bills; and according to the Center for Responsive Politics, Robison's lobbying revenues have quadrupled, from just less than $1 million in 2002 to just more than $4 million in 2007.
North Carolina: The NC-Dems have put up a new website, Liddy's Slippers, revealing the truth about Elizabeth Dole. The website questions Dole's effectiveness as a forty-year Washington insider out of touch with, um, whatever state Dole claims to be from nowadays. Meanwhile, the DSCC releases another ad illustrating that the only thing Elizabeth Dole is effective at is getting giant tax breaks for Big Oil:
"It's bad enough that Kay Hagan is in the tank for big labor, which is her largest campaign contributor - trying to hide her true colors from North Carolinians is inexcusable," Dole spokesman Dan McLagan said in a statement on Monday. "Trying to sneak into office as a Trojan horse for her big labor backers is a slap in the face to voters."
Yeah, Liddy, that's the best response to critiques that you're in the pocket of Big Oil - attack Kay Hagan for being in the pocket of North Carolina's working families. That'll work like a charm. To top it all off, The Wall Street Journal declares that it is "Panic Time in North Carolina" for Liddy Dole.
Nebraska: Read this recap of the most recent debate in the 2008 Senate race between George W. Bush sycophant Mike Johanns and rancher Scott Kleeb. Kleeb makes Johanns come off as a giant ass, and Johanns bumblingly does nothing to refute Kleeb's jabs. This is what it looks like when Democrats get aggressive on the failed records of Republicans.
Slattery criticized Roberts for getting the intelligence wrong while serving as chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. He said voters should hold politicians accountable when they make such mistakes.
Roberts countered that the world, not just the U.S., got the intelligence wrong -- and once that was realized it was his committee that made the information public. Several audience members laughed at Roberts' statement.
Way to pass the buck there, Pat. No wonder Kansans are laughing at you. Stick it to "Pass the Buck" Pat Roberts by sending some bucks to former Congressman Jim Slattery via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.
Expected to be one of the tightest Senate races in the nation in 2008, Oregon's battle between incumbent Republican Gordon Smith and Democratic Speaker of the Oregon House Jeff Merkley offers a very promising Democratic pick-up opportunity. Speaker Merkley is credited with leading one of the most progressive, productive sessions of the Oregon state House in decades, and with the narrowest of margins of majority. Speaker Merkley has picked up his fundraising since his hard-fought primary victory, significantly outraising Republican Gordon Smith in Q2, $1.9 million to $1.3 million. Further, the polling has been tight, with Speaker Merkley actually leading in a Rasmussen Reports poll in July. Additionally, the DSCC has demonstrated a commitment to sending the necessary resources to Oregon in support of Speaker Merkley's bid to oust Republican Gordon Smith. It seems that Republican Gordon Smith's number one tactic during this campaign is to do all he can to get Oregonians to forget that he is a Republican. You can help Speaker Merkley remind Oregonians that Smith is a Republican with a contribution to Merkley via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.
SENATE GURU: Speaker Merkley, I'll jump right in with one of the most notable aspects of the Oregon Senate race. If someone's only source of information on the Oregon Senate race and on the record of Republican Gordon Smith was Smith's campaign ads, someone might walk away thinking that Republican Gordon Smith had the support of Barack Obama and John Kerry and that Smith was a long-time opponent of the Iraq War. Of course, the reality is that both Obama and Kerry support your campaign and that Gordon Smith never spoke critically of the Iraq War until after Election Day 2006. How are you countering Smith's misinformation campaign and setting the record straight?
JEFF MERKLEY: Well, certainly, Smith's goal is to confuse Oregonians about his record because, if they're familiar with his record, he loses because he's been dramatically out of sync with our state. He's been a 90% Bush-Cheney rubber stamp in a state that, I'm so proud to say, has the lowest opinions of Bush and Cheney of any state in the Union - Oregon is very proud of that, and Smith is very out of sync with it. So his goal is to confuse people about his record.
You cited the ad cozying up to Barack Obama; and, indeed he said 'Barack Obama praises me as a leader in alternative energy.' So, of course, everyone wanted to see what that quote was. It turns out, there wasn't a quote. That's a very curious thing, to say someone praises you, and then not have a quote. Then he says, 'Well, I signed on to a bill that was the same bill Barack Obama signed on to.' It happens to be a bill that, before he was running for re-election, Smith voted against three times.
So what we have is the Smith who has a 90% rubber stamp record, and then there's the Smith who runs for re-election and tries in some way to paper over his record. We call it the "Smith Myth." It's the same reason he's doing an ad touting his work with John Kerry. And we think maybe next he's going to do an ad touting his work with Dennis Kucinich.
"Do you really want to have a guy as commander in chief of this country when you can question whether or not he really loves his country?" said Inhofe [referring to Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama]. "That's the big question.'' ...
The Oklahoma Republican claimed he was "not questioning Obama's patriotism" but then said "You have to question why at times he seems so obviously opposed to public displays of patriotism and national pride, like wearing an American flag lapel pin."
First, it's worth noting that one John W. McCain was not wearing an American flag lapel pin while accepting the Republican nomination for President. Jim Inhofe must think John W. McCain hates America. Second, wonderfully, in direct response to Inhofe's latest idiotic drivel, the Daily Kos community raised over $7,000 for 2008 Democratic Senate nominee and State Senator Andrew Rice. Does what Inhofe said make you mad, too? Respond with a contribution to Rice via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page. (Rice is only $81 away from $5,000 on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page. This is a good reason to get him across that threshold!)
In late 2006, Minneapolis-based Xcel Energy Inc. was pushing the notion that nuclear power should be included with solar and wind in any federal mandates for renewable-energy generation.
Xcel's idea was supported by Republican Sen. Norm Coleman of Minnesota, who had ordered a study and drafted federal carbon-reduction legislation that included Xcel's proposal.
At about that time, Minnesota Republican leaders were asking local corporations to sponsor the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul, which ended Thursday. Xcel agreed to give $1 million.
Coleman was involved in the fundraising, but it could not be determined if he made calls. Xcel and Coleman's office said there was no connection between the RNC donation and the senator's support of the Xcel proposal.
But the timing illustrates the potential conflicts underlying the intense fundraising that both political parties engaged in while preparing for their conventions this year.
If ApartmentGate taught us anything, it's that Smilin' Norm certainly doesn't mind the appearance of impropriety! At least no one can say that Smilin' Norm isn't eloquent.
Oregon: Republican Gordon Smith makes me shudder and the Oregon print media offers accurate reporting in this story from the East Oregonian:
Smith is foregoing the National Republican Convention in St. Paul, Minn. this week. Some political pundits have said Smith is in Oregon to distance himself from the Bush administration. But the senator said in his two elections he hasn't gone to the convention.
Smith's last election was in 2002. And he didn't go to the convention. Convenient, what with the Republican Party not holding a Presidential nominating convention in a year in which there was no Presidential election.
That could be why Smith didn't provide substantive solutions to questions about key issues such as high gas prices, health care costs and the price of education - issues he said Oregonians have talked about with him - and instead focused on hammering Merkley.
If there's one thing Republican Gordon Smith does not want to discuss, it's his position (or positions) on issues of concern to Oregonians!
The Dole campaign began running a TV ad featuring a yapping dog and references to "Fibber Kay Hagan." The state Republican Party stuck with the animal theme with a new mailer, featuring a sheep, that says "Kay Hagan is Trying to Pull the Wool Over our Eyes." It says that although Hagan decries high gas prices, she and her husband benefit from the prices because they own stock in oil wells in Oklahoma, Indiana, West Virginia and Ohio. The National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee ran a TV ad awarding Hagan a gold medal for running up the state's debt, for government waste and for raising taxes.
Hagan said the new round of attacks indicates that things are not going well for Dole.
"I've never been called a liar before," Hagan said. "She has panicked, and she is scared." ...
"Forty years of Washington experience may be the worst thing you could have in this year's political climate," said Gary Pearce, a Democratic strategist.
Hagan has portrayed Dole as a creature of Washington, but an ineffective one who has lost touch with her Tar Heel constituents.
"I don't think she understands the issues," Hagan said in an interview. "She lives in the Watergate, and she hangs around special interest lobbyists and not here on the ground in North Carolina."
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee obviously has North Carolina toward the top of its list, as it has reportedly reserved a mammoth $8 million in TV air time in the Tar Heel State. Outstanding.
Virginia: The Rothenberg Political Report has earth-shattering breaking news: unpopular Republican former Gov. Jim Gilmore is not dropping out of the 2008 Senate race! Wow. My favorite line in this rather unnecessary column is (emphasis added by me):
Still, Democrats do have reason to be confident about Warner's chances.
"Still!" As though Democrats did not, as of yet, have reasons to be confident about popular Democratic former Governor Mark Warner's chances. If we needed another reason to like our chances (while taking nothing for granted!), the Obama campaign has reportedly registered almost 50,000 new voters in Virginia in August alone, about 40% of which were age 25 or younger. That goes with 36,500 new voters registered in July by the Obama camp and 28,000 in June.
New Mexico: Democratic Congressman Tom Udall's campaign has a very clever fundraising idea. Modelled after the website Woot.com, the Udall camp has started Wootdall.com, where you can contribute one second of TV air time for $7.30, an ingenious way of personalizing ownership of and participation in the campaign.
Wisconsin: Of a 2010 challenge to Democratic Senator Russ Feingold or a 2012 Senate bid if Democratic Senator Herb Kohl (who will be 77 years old on Election Day 2012) retires, Republican Congresscritter Paul Ryan says, "'I'll definitely look at that,' Ryan said, 'and cross that bridge when I get to it.'"
Montana: Barack Obama will win Montana's three electoral votes. Find out how here.
I'm not going to predict to you that we take the Senate back. I don't think that's going to happen. ...
But asked if Ensign had taken the correct course in publicly castigating his Republican colleagues for failing to provide the committee with sufficient funding, Kyl said, "I'm not going to get into it."
Kyl isn't the first Senate Republican at the Republican National Convention to say that the GOP would fail to take back the majority.
"There's virtually no chance we can get the Senate back," U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told a meeting of the Utah delegation.
Seriously, why would any Republican waste a single dollar contributing to the NRSC?
It doesn't help the NRSC's effort any when its Chair, John Ensign, resorts to hilarious melodrama in his Republican National Convention remarks: "If the Democrats win a stronger majority in the United States Senate, our nation will move farther and farther from the principles of freedom."
North Carolina: If Elizabeth Dole had the slightest shred of integrity or dignity left in her campaign or her political career, she just flushed it down the toilet. Liddy Dole released a new ad that begins with the line, "They call her 'Fibber Kay' Hagan. Fib after fib, she tries to turn us against Elizabeth Dole." All the while, in the ad, a small dog is barking at a fence. Nowhere in the ad does Dole offer who the "They" are or what "fibs" Dole is referring to or, for that matter, what the barking dog is supposed to represent, though we can connect the dots. The ad also claims that Dole magically "saved jobs," "saved farmers," and so on, but does not suggest what it was that Dole did that actually saved these jobs and farmers. Of the "Fibber Kay" slur, Elizabeth Dole's spokesman does the real fibbing on Dole's behalf:
The ad does not specify who "they" are who call Hagan "Fibber Kay."
The Dole campaign said they did not come up with the nickname, but they did not know who did.
"We're not sure who coined it, but we hear people call Kay Hagan 'Fibber Kay' on the campaign trail and we hear it frequently," said spokesman Hogan Gidley.
A search of North Carolina newspapers, blogs and Web sites did not return any references to "Fibber Kay" from before the ad began airing, and nearly all written since were about the ad itself.
The ad does not name any of the supposed "fibs" that Hagan has made.
The bottom line is crystal clear. Recent polling shows Elizabeth Dole about to face a world of hurt from Kay Hagan, so Dole is desperately resorting to absurd lies and childish name-calling to save her skin. Basically, the 72-year-old Dole is acting like a 7-year-old. Help Kay Hagan fight back against Liddy Dole's flailing falsehoods with a contribution to Hagan via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.
Minnesota: If Al Franken keeps making his case as clearly and concisely as he does in his new ad, at right, Smilin' Norm Coleman won't have a leg to stand on.
Colorado: An outstanding new website, SchafferScandals.com, highlights Backwards Bob Schaffer's many scandals, in the areas of defrauding the federal government, supporting Big Oil, allowing schools to fail, and actually endorsing Mariana Island sweatshops. Jack Abramoff, of course, has a starring role.
Maine: Congress' top force for government oversight, Congressman Henry Waxman, slams Republican Susan Collins for her failure to provide adequate oversight over contractor waste, fraud, and abuse in Iraq.
Alaska: Sarah Palin won't say whether or not she is endorsing indicted Republican Ted Stevens in his bid for re-election against Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. The McCain camp worries that Palin supporting Stevens would undermine their undeserved reformer image. The Guru says that Palin not immediately all-out refusing to endorse Stevens undermines their undeserved reformer image. However, it appears that Republicans are poll-testing whether Palin's endorsement could help Stevens' electoral prospects, while testing the names of possible replacements for Stevens.
Ohio: WKSU's News Director offers that Republican Rob Portman is interested in a 2012 Senate challenge against Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown. Given that Portman's recent gig was as George W. Bush's Budget Director, he may have a lot of explaining to do. Also, keeping in mind that Republican Senator George Voinovich, who will be 74 years old on Election Day 2010, is a retirement possibility for that year, Portman might take a shot at that seat.
Texas: Speculation continues to build over the prospect of Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison leaving the Senate before the end of her term so that she can run for Governor, and the Republican vultures continue to circle the potentially open seat.
Use the comments for your guesses, or just treat this like an open thread and share thoughts on the Senate races or anything else on your mind. Answer next Friday.
Question: John Quincy Adams was the first former President to serve in the U.S. House of Representatives. Who was the first former President to serve in the U.S. Senate?
(Answer to last week's question: The first seated U.S. Senator to be unseated due to a ballot recount was Smith Brookhart of Iowa, who lost his seat to Daniel Steck, who cited voting irregularities in their election.)
Enjoy the latest television ads from Democratic candidates for Senate.
Maine Congressman Tom Allen lays out his energy plan and displays actual concern for Mainers, a foreign concept to Republican Susan Collins.
Former New Hampshire Governor Jeanne Shaheen nails John Sununu for blindly following George W. Bush on Iraq, the economy, and tax breaks for Big Oil.
New Mexico Congressman Tom Udall lays out his comprehensive approach to actually achieving energy independence, not just talking about it.
Former Kentucky Commerce Secretary Bruce Lunsford highlights Mitch McConnell's many broken promises on taxes, veterans' benefits, Medicare, education funding, and Big Oil.
The DSCC slams Republican Gordon Smith for being wildly out of touch with Oregonians on tax cuts for Big Oil and privatizing social security.
Alaska: New Ivan Moore Research poll: It would seem the shock of Ted Stevens' indictment is wearing off as the race has tightened to just a 49-46 lead for Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. I wonder if the shock of a Ted Stevens conviction will wear off.
Republican U.S. Sen. Gordon Smith has been airing TV ads accusing Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley of cutting funding for a program that provides home care for seniors.
However, Merkley and others in the Oregon Legislature actually voted to increase spending on the program, known as Oregon Project Independence.
"It's wrong, and Gordon Smith knows it," Merkley campaign spokesman Matt Canter said of Smith's TV ad, which says Merkley "cut home care for seniors by $4 million."
From 2003 to 2006, Mr. Coleman was chairman of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations (PSI), which is responsible for investigating, among other things, "fraud, waste and abuse in government contracting," and on his watch, the subcommittee held no hearings on the disappearance of billions of tax dollars into "reconstruction projects" in Iraq that didn't seem to reconstruct anything whatsoever. Bundles of newly minted $100 bills on pallets in Baghdad that simply vanished. No-bid contracts lavished on people with connections. What may be the biggest case of war profiteering in the history of buzzardry.
The PSI is a big hammer. But as the Coleman subcommittee, it went after federal employees who were traveling business class instead of economy. Meanwhile, money was pouring out of the Treasury for any Republican who could write "Iraq" with fewer than two spelling errors, and an old Bush retainer was appointed special inspector general to oversee the Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund - but without authority to oversee money spent on reconstruction by the Pentagon, which was where most of the money went. All of this Senator Coleman watched with a cool eye, and he now calculates that Minnesota voters won't have the attention span to read a story with a lot of dollar amounts and acronyms such as PSI and IRRF and SIG. Maybe, maybe not.
The simple truth is that while more than 4,000 Americans gave their lives in the war in Iraq, the war was an enormous financial opportunity for neocons and their friends, and Senator Coleman was a passive observer of one of the biggest heists in history. The cynicism is staggering to the normal person. He was the cop who busted the hot dog vendor for obstructing the sidewalk while the McGurks were cleaning out the bank. This is no joke. A crook is walking around looking for votes. And the truth is marching on.
Norm Coleman was a good Bushie who let his Republican bosses and corporate cronies operate without a hint of oversight. Al Franken won't let Minnesotans forget this.
Campaign officials confirmed Thursday that Inhofe had agreed to debates on KJRH-TV in Tulsa on Oct. 7 and on KOCO-TV in Oklahoma City in late September or early October.
Josh Kivett, campaign manager for Inhofe, said final details are being worked out.
He said Inhofe also will join Rice in a forum before a Tulsa chamber group.
Geri Prado, campaign manager for Rice, said the Democratic nominee had agreed to two other debates, but Inhofe declined to participate.
Q: "Obviously whenever the NRSC cancels an ad buy (as just happened in NM), people are going to say 'Oh, that means they're conceding the race.....'"
JE: "Oh, far from the truth, far from the truth. We just had to readjust a few, that's all it was, that's all it was. We're going to be pow-wowing over the next couple of days and seeing when we can go and where, but New Mexico is still a top priority for us."
The darling of the 1996 Republican National Convention, Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) is AWOL from the Xcel Energy Center this week, forced to defend her once-safe seat in a come-from-nowhere race back home and dispatching her husband to the Twin Cities to mingle with Tar Heel State delegates. ...
A Democratic poll released Wednesday showed the Senator neck and neck with state Sen. Kay Hagan (D), whose surprisingly well-financed candidacy is drawing watchful eyes from Washington, D.C., including those of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which has reserved $6 million-plus in television ads that have already been airing for a month. ...
Hagan's campaign hammered Dole's conspicuous absence in St. Paul, Minn., a stark contrast to 12 years ago when her husband was a candidate and she was a belle at the GOP ball. ...
But a spokeswoman for Hagan said Dole's absence from St. Paul shows that she is trying to distance herself from Bush and the GOP. "Over 40 years in Washington, nearly six years in the Senate, having voted 92 percent of the time with President Bush, and Elizabeth Dole thinks four days apart from the Bush-Cheney Republicans will enable her to say with a straight face that she's worked for North Carolina's best interests?" Hagan spokeswoman Colleen Flanagan said. "She's spoken at five prior conventions and praised President Bush when speaking at the convention just four years ago."
The latest entry in the DSCC's "The Road to Victory" series asks Republican National Convention attendees where the GOP will pick up Senate seats in 2008:
North Carolina: New Democracy Corps poll: State Senator Kay Hagan is leading Bush-rubber-stamp 48-43, climbing to 50-45 when leaners are included. D'ohle!
Survey USA took the summer off, but comes back with some fascinating new polling numbers:
Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell sinks from an approve-disapprove of 57-37 in May to 44-47 in August, a negative 23-point swing against McConnell. (May was a very favorable outlier for McConnell.)
Minnesota Republican Norm Coleman drops from an approve-disapprove of 48-46 in May to 44-51 in August, a negative 9-point swing against Coleman.
Oregon Republican Gordon Smith plummets from an approve-disapprove of 45-47 in May to 38-56 in August, a negative 16-point swing against Smith!
Oregon: Speaking of Republican Gordon Smith, his campaign is avoiding commenting on his shady campaign accounting, which includes many thousands of dollars going from indicted Republican Ted Stevens' PAC directly into Republican Gordon Smith's wallet. I don't think this is the last we'll hear of Republican Gordon Smith's fuzzy math. Elsewhere, Democratic Speaker Jeff Merkley has done Republican Gordon Smith a favor. Since Republican Gordon Smith is cowering and hiding this week so as not to have to go to the Republican National Convention, Speaker Merkley has taken portions of Smith's previous statements and speeches and fashioned them into what would have been Gordon Smith's Republican National Convention speech. Very much worth the read.
"A McCain presidency would to some degree be an attack on the Republican establishment, and McConnell symbolizes the establishment of the last few years," said Michael Tanner, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank in Washington. "He is not going to be close to a McCain White House. It's going to be a contentious relationship. I expect them to butt heads." ...
McCain has vowed to "veto every pork-laden spending bill and make their authors famous." During his Senate tenure, McConnell has used earmarks to bring home millions in federal funds to Kentucky.
Every time John W. McCain says that earmarks are bad, Kentuckians should hear, "Mitch McConnell is what's wrong with the federal government."
Idaho: Despite Republicans' most insidious efforts to undermine yet another election, independent conservative 2008 Senate candidate Rex Rammell will be able to remain on the ballot.
Virginia: Unpopular Republican former Gov. Jim Gilmore says some hilarious things. For instance, in the Washington Post:
I have a national following. I'm a national leader.
WSJ: Let's talk about that. Right now polls show a wide lead for your rival in the senate race, Mark Warner. What are you going to do to close that gap?
Gilmore: Let's see what the polling looks like as we go forward. Right now, what Mark Warner needs to do is to hide and disguise his position on the issues. If he can do that, then perhaps these old polls number will stand up. The people of Virginia are going to really start to examine the senate race, which has not been discussed at all up to this point. And as they understand his position on the issues, we're going to win the race. ...
WSJ: Have you had support from the National Republican Senatorial Committee or any other Republican organizations?
Gilmore: No. But that's because they don't have any money. They just don't. But I will say this, to be fair: the Senate committee has been very helpful. They've helped us with research and advice. They just don't have any money.
WSJ: But you're still able to compete with Warner?
Gilmore: This is the year in which the liberals feel that they can get themselves a filibuster-proof U.S. Senate. They're trying to get it. They're putting a lot of money in it. We never thought we were going to outspend Mark Warner.
New Hampshire: Speaking of Montana's Senator Jon Tester, before heading up to Maine, he'll be stopping in the Granite State in support of popular Democratic former Governor Jeanne Shaheen's campaign to oust Republican John Sununu. Also, the DSCC's latest NH-Sen ad flunks Sprintin' John Sununu for voting the way George W. Bush wants him to 90% of the time, at right.
Connecticut: Joe Lieberman says he'll stick around in the Democratic caucus for now. I dunno how much longer it'll be up to him. The Guru's prediction: Lieberman limps through the rest of the session and gets formally booted, along with losing his Chairmanship, in January.
Random thought: As I was listening to Sarah Palin mock community organizers, I kept wondering, "Aren't all those faith-based initiatives that Republicans pay lip service to run by, among others, community organizers?" I thought helping people and building our communities up were good things. I guess Sarah Palin and John W. McCain's Republican speechwriting team disagree.
Alaska: The FBI has revealed that it has more than 100 recorded phone conversations with indicted Ted Stevens, which they plan to enter into evidence. 100 phone calls? I may be going out on a limb here, but I'd imagine that there's something at least a tad incriminating on those recordings. In other Ted Stevens trial news, Stevens' comedians lawyers are going to attempt a dismissal motion again. Whatever prolongs this debacle works for me.
Oregon: Democratic Speaker Jeff Merkley is up with a new ad criticizing free trade policies, saying, "They call it free trade. Problem is, there's nothing free about it." Ad at right. In other news, do you remember how Republican Gordon Smith said that he was skipping the Republican National Convention so that he could campaign? Well, um, no one knows where he is and his public schedule is reportedly empty all week. Anyone have a Republican Gordon Smith sighting this week, let the Guru know!
Kentucky: A new website, The McCON Job, has been started by the 2008 Senate campaign of Democratic nominee Bruce Lunsford to track Mitch McConnell's various and sundry foibles. Here's some interesting content for starters: though McConnell voted against raising the minimum wagefourteen times, he voted to raise his own pay three times.
New Hampshire: Both popular Democratic former Governor Jeanne Shaheen and the DSCC go up on the air with ads criticizing the policies of George W. Bush and Sprintin' John Sununu:
Minnesota: I'm very curious how the apparently ill-informed Roll Call writer Shira Toeplitz squares the headline "Proud Coleman in the Spotlight," an article about how proud Smilin' Norm Coleman is to play host to the Republican National Convention, with his actual sentiment on the topic:
If the convention wasn't in St. Paul, I wouldn't be at the convention," Coleman said.
Norm Coleman may be Smilin' but I doubt he's all that "proud." Meanwhile, the DSCC has released a pair of new videos. The first is the trailer for "Running Man: The Norm Coleman Story." The second discusses Coleman's highly misplaced priorities.
Virginia: Hmmm, this is surprising. Apparently, unpopular Republican former Gov. Jim Gilmore's 2008 Senate bid is not gaining much traction. Well, that's news to me!
MSNBC host Chris Matthews might not just be interviewing politicians this convention season - he might also be laying plans to join their ranks. Matthews, who reportedly has designs on the Senate seat now occupied by Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), seems to be angling for the new gig, meeting with the Pennsylvania delegation during the Democrats' convention in Denver, HOH hears.
Alaska: There is a 527 called "Ted Stevens Excellence in Public Service, Inc." While you are trying to keep from vomiting, I'll note that one of its directors was Sarah Palin.
Kentucky: Will the U.S. Senate's top Republican, Mitch McConnell, cynically use Hurricane Gustav as an excuse to duck out of the Republican National Convention? We'll see. (I haven't seen any RNC footage yet - and don't know the absolute latest on exactly who's in and who's out. Stay tuned.)
While Ensign's speech will generally touch on the difficulties Senate Republicans face this election year, Fisher said Ensign will talk more specifically about individual Senate races during a slew of media interviews.
Warning: the amount of spin Ensign will have to generate may cause vertigo.
