What next? In New York's 13th Congressional District, there's always something next.
Here's the first curveball: Just days after word leaked out that disgraced GOP Rep. Vito Fossella was exploring a comeback attempt this fall, Conservative Party nominee Paul Atanasio is dropping out and seeking a judicial nomination:
Brooklyn Conservative chairman Jerry Kassar has told the Advance that congressional candidate Paul Atanasio, who is bailing out of the campaign, will have his name put into nomination for a Brooklyn state Supreme Court judgeship at the party's judicial nominating convention tonight.
If Atanasio's nomination is approved, which looks to be a formality, the coveted Conservative line in the race would officially become vacant, with the party's state executive committee set to make a new endorsement next week.
Could this be the opening that Vito needs in order to get himself back on the ballot? It's there for the taking, if the Conservative "bigwigs" want to play that game of tiddly winks. Whatever the case, they will most certainly not endorse Republican Bob Straniere:
The Brooklyn party organization has already rejected Democratic candidate Michael McMahon, and Kassar today said, "I don't see any interest among my members in recommending to the state party that we endorse [GOP candidate] Bob Straniere."
"That would do nothing for us," said Kassar. "He hasn't really put together much of a campaign despite winning the Republican primary."
And just when things couldn't get nuttier, defeated GOP primary candidate Jamshad "Jim" Wyne is running as a write-in candidate.
Jeff Merkley (D): 45 (39)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 46 (47)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
There's been a decided shift in momentum in the last few weeks in this race: the Merkley internal poll giving him the lead (and giving Smith a catastrophic 61% disapproval rating), a panicky Smith dropping his 'nice guy' image to run sleazy attack ads, and Willamette Week pounding away at Smith on the hiring-illegal-immigrants front (with new research released today, interviewing five people who were illegals at the time of employment for the Prince of Peas).
Well, we have some confirmation from a public pollster: Rasmussen, who last month seemed to show a race slipping away from Merkley, shows a huge bounce-back for Merkley, now down just by 1. Significantly, Merkley leads 46-42 among unaffiliated voters.
We at SSP had been suspecting that where there was smoke, there was fire; with confirmation from a public pollster, we feel confident in upgrading this race to "Tossup."
The NRCC is so confident in its candidate for the open seat in Arizona's First District, friend-of-Alan-Keyes and all-around nutjob Sydney Hay, that it has decided to let her win the campaign on her own.
Karen Hanretty, communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said the group believes Sydney Hay is a strong candidate who could win the seat without the committee's financial backing.
"We don't need to spend resources on all of these races, and simply because some are strong enough to sustain a victory without our financial assistance,'' Hanretty said. "And we're certainly hoping that's the case in that district.''
This is the same Sydney Hay who was low on the party's wish list of candidates after stronger candidates took a pass, who barely won her primary against a field of nobodies, who's trying to succeed scandal-plagued Rick Renzi in an R+2 district, and who's up against former State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who's the recipient of a $1.7 million ad reservation by the DCCC.
Hay spokesperson Ron Tyler has a slightly different version of the events than the NRCC:
"There's been communication and hope, and I don't think they've specifically said no, but so far we haven't had the check written or the commitment made,'' he said. "We still have our prayers that somehow they'll hear and answer and send us some money.''
Meanwhile, NRSC Chair John Ensign says that Republicans could stay at 49 seats after November, which, under any plausible scenario, would have to include a Steve Pearce victory.
Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 35
Lou Barletta (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Now, there's not much that I know about this poll's sample breakdown or its crosstabs. The Franklin & Marshall College Poll (formerly the Keystone Poll) is a respected survey in Pennsylvania, but it's hard to judge a poll like this without seeing its innards. Hopefully we'll get some more information on this one shortly. (UPDATE: Full polling memo available below the fold.)
Still, with three polls showing Barletta leading (albeit, two of them were Barletta internals) and no other polls to inform us otherwise, it's getting increasingly difficult to give Kanjorski the benefit of the doubt here. He's in serious trouble.
UPDATE: Perhaps sensing trouble, the DCCC releases a poll of their own. Grove Insight (9/14-15, likely voters):
Talk about going off message. In an interview with PolitickerPA.com, GOP Rep. Phil English called the fact that the NRCC is polling his race against Democratic businesswoman Kathy Dahlkemper an "ominous" portent for his re-election:
"Ominously, we saw also they had polled," noted English. "I think they're testing."
Not exactly ringing words of self-confidence, wouldn't you say? But don't worry, Philly quickly shifted gears to full spin mode:
But the results of the survey, he speculated, had been favorable.
"I think it's also significant that we noticed from a distance that after they polled they did not go forward and launch early ads. I think that's a strong indication of how strong our campaign has been."
In that case, every Republican incumbent must be in incredibly strong shape, because the NRCC hasn't spent a dime on attack ads anywhere. Or it could be that the NRCC has a 4-to-1 cash disadvantage against the DCCC, and can't afford to use up their resources this early. But what do I know.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but the beads of sweat forming on Philly's upper lip are quite telling.
The DCCC is opening up their floodgates to some serious advertising expenditures in support of Democratic House candidates. Tonight, the committee filed $1.75 million in advertising expenditures in 15 districts:
District
Incumbent
Media Buy
AL-02
Open
$32,645
AL-05
Open
$44,925
AZ-01
Open
$82,615
AZ-05
Mitchell
$101,893
CT-04
Shays
$70,800
IL-10
Kirk
$41,066
IL-11
Open
$40,953
NC-08
Hayes
$114,848
NH-01
Shea-Porter
$493,422
NJ-07
Open
$116,541
NM-01
Open
$144,011
OH-01
Chabot
$118,428
OH-15
Open
$111,899
OH-16
Open
$152,748
PA-03
English
$88,552
These are some of the first significant media buys that the DCCC has made this fall, including a whopping $500K dumped against Jeb Bradley in NH-01.
The NRCC is continuing to maintain radio silence, because they can't afford to match pace. I wonder if they'll do some serious deficit financing in order to stay afloat this year.
More details on these and other expenditures are available in SSP's Independent Expenditure Tracker. The DCCC has made some of these ads available to view online on their multimedia page.
"This is their agenda," Bachmann states bluntly. "I know it is hard to believe, it's hard to fathom -- but this is 'mission accomplished' for them," she asserts. "They want Americans to take transit and move to the inner cities. They want Americans to move to the urban core, live in tenements, [and] take light rail to their government jobs. That's their vision for America."
Tim Mahoney (D-inc): 48
Tom Rooney (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Mahoney isn't out of the woods yet -- only 32% say he deserves re-election, compared to 41% who say that it's time for someone new. Rooney, a former Chicago-area high school principal Pittsburgh Steelers heir, won't be hurting for the resources he needs to make his case.
Swing State Project is moving its rating of the Washington governor's race to "Tossup."
While we're reasonably confident in governor Chris Gregoire's ability to prevail in her rematch with 2004 GOP opponent Dino Rossi, thanks to Obama coattails on top of Washington's Democratic lean, it's impossible to ignore the fact that the most recent round of polling from both Rasmussen and SurveyUSA has given narrow leads to Rossi. If there's any question, look at the trendlines.
There are several factors at work here: a higher energy level on the part of Rossi's supporters (who have spent the last four years feeling that they wuz robbed), and Rossi's skill as a retail politician vs. Gregoire's reluctance to toot her own horn. Most significant is a sustained Rossi ad blitz, funded by big bucks from the Republican Governor's Association (who don't have too many other wise places to spend their money) and even more from the Evergreen State's principal behind-the-scenes right-wing string-pullers, the Building Industry Association of Washington. Rossi will still be running into a stiff Democratic headwind in November, but a Rossi win is no longer out of the question.
The Swing State Project is moving its rating of the North Carolina Senate contest from "Lean Republican" to "Tossup".
Recent polling confirms a dramatic tightening of this race in the past month after the DSCC began unloading a series of advertisements calling into question Dole's effectiveness in Washington and her ties to Bush and "big oil". We've been waiting to see if Dole could mount an effective counter-attack against Hagan, but we still have yet to see a coherent GOP defense here. Whereas Hagan and the DSCC have chosen their narrative (Dole being an ineffective creature of Washington for the past 40 years) and are driving the message effectively and relentlessly. Dole's sliding re-elect numbers confirm the shakiness of her position.
On the national scale, most polls are indicating a tight contest -- certainly much closer than John Kerry's performance against Bush in 2004. Democrats have already added over 130,000 voters to their registration advantage over the GOP here since 2006, and Obama's ground game will be working hard to turn out the base vote. While his campaign is not favored to win the state, Hagan, with more crossover appeal as a down-home Democrat, could be poised to reap the benefits of his operation.
Dole will still be tough to beat, but we can no longer give her the edge in the face of a very effective campaign by Hagan and the DSCC.
There's Ronnie Musgrove, standing in the dilapidated house that he grew up in, telling us about his family's struggle after he lost his father at age seven, and talking about how he'll help those who are currently struggling. It's a powerful message -- one that's very reminiscent of the story of Travis Childers' life.
The people can't help but like Childers. His favorable/unfavorable rating is 55-24, while Greg Davis is still stuck in a special election hangover, with only a 40-32 favorable rating.
Anzalone has had a great track record with this race. Their polling correctly predicted a dead heat in early April, and private numbers also showed Childers with a slight lead heading into the final runoff in May. Despite Sarah Palin awakening a Zombie Republican Army across the nation, things are looking very good for Cold Chillin' Travis this fall.
Boy, that special election sure was a lot of fun, wasn't it?
Update: The full polling memo is available below the fold.
Michael Skelly (D): 37 (33)
John Culberson (R-inc): 44 (52)
Other: 6 (-)
Undecided: 13 (16)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
These are some nice numbers for Michael Skelly, whose summer ad campaign has clearly bought him some momentum against unaccomplished GOP Rep. John Culberson in this R+15.6 (but Dem-trending) suburban Houston district.
SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican, but we're diggin' this trend.
There he goes again. Fresh off from trashing liberal bloggers (like us) for pushing "long shot" House candidates, Stuart Rothenberg is taking aim at DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen himself for the crime of, um, promoting Democratic House candidates. But let's walk through Rothenberg's latest opus one step at a time before we get to that.
After a long hangover spent lying face-first in the gutter, the GOP is on the upswing, Rothenberg says:
Given that, it certainly appears that the DCCC is running a risk by promoting some candidates who have little or no chance to win in the fall, and by lumping together very strong contenders with second-tier campaigns.
Running the risk of what, exactly? Losing the undeniably uphill races and having blowhards like Stu Rothenberg say "I told you so!" in their beltway-brained columns? I think that's a risk that the DCCC would gladly take with a yawn.
Rothenberg singles out the campaigns of Sam Bennett (PA-15), David Boswell (KY-02), Judy Feder (VA-10) and Anne Barth (WV-02) as dubious choices for the committee's "Red to Blue" program based on either the redness of their districts, the popularity of the incumbents, or their financial disadvantages. That's all well and good, but who says the DCCC shouldn't fight against the odds? After all, as well-timed expenditures by the DCCC in districts like CA-11, KS-02, KY-03, NY-20, and PA-04 showed in 2006, it's worth keeping your options open and having as many strong campaigns in place around the country as possible. Instead, Rothenberg would rather see the DCCC wave the white flag like "sensible realists".
Rothenberg seems to subscribe to a very particular view about politics: if a campaign is not in the obvious top tier of pickup opportunities, they are not worth your attention or even your respect.
Take his sniping against the candidates listed in the DCCC's "Emerging Races" and "Races to Watch" slates, which he lambastes for including some "truly odd" and "bizarre" choices like Jim Harlan (LA-01), Linda Ketner (SC-01), Josh Zeitz (NJ-04) and Ron Hubler (IA-05). Rothenberg admits that Democrats are not expecting upsets by this bunch, and that their inclusion on these lists does not mean that the D-Trip is committed to funding them, but he can't seem to wrap his mind around the fact that the committee wants to give these hard-working candidates a friendly pat on the back. I guess he would prefer Chris Van Hollen to give each candidate a personal kick in the ass instead.
Rothenberg goes even further:
But if the DCCC is going to go out of its way to promote certain races, it ought to be responsible for those selections.
Responsible how, exactly? Should the DCCC be tried before a jury of Stuart Rothenberg, David Broder and Brendan Nyhan on charges of slight exuberance in the service of politics? Should we be demanding that MAD Magazine devote an issue to mocking the D-Trip? Should we get out there and tar-and-feather Chris Van Hollen?
Somehow, I have a feeling that CVH's reputation will do just fine after this election. Not that Stu Rothenberg would agree:
But if the national landscape continues to move even slightly more back toward the Republicans, eroding (but certainly not eliminating) the Democrats' huge early advantages, DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) might find himself promoting dozens of candidates with no chance of winning. And that would be embarrassing and self-defeating.
It's sort of funny. This is at least the second time this year (by my count), that Rothenberg has implied that Van Hollen should be ashamed of himself. (Back in May, he claimed that CVH should be embarrassed for putting GOP incumbents on notice after Travis Childers' win.) But does he deliver this kind of special scorn to NRCC Chair Tom Cole? No, he bends over backwards to call Cole "not the real problem". Of course, the fact that Cole lost three special elections in deeply red seats is nothing to be embarrassed about. Not at all.
But hey, since we're talking about people who ought to feel embarrassed, how about Stu Rothenberg himself for writing all this?
Talk about going off message. In an 
Michele Bachmann, 
The Swing State Project is moving its rating of the North Carolina Senate contest from "Lean Republican" to "
