Democrats up six in Gallup generic poll. GOP enthusiasm at highest level since April

Some good news from Gallup. The Democrats have moved ahead in the generic poll:

In the same week the U.S. Senate passed a major financial reform bill touted as reining in Wall Street, Democrats pulled ahead of Republicans, 49% to 43%, in voters' generic ballot preferences for the 2010 congressional elections.

The Democrats' six-point advantage in Gallup Daily interviewing from July 12-18 represents the first statistically significant lead for that party's candidates since Gallup began weekly tracking of this measure in March.

That's encouraging. The House Democrats, for the most part, have delivered on key elements of the Democratic agenda. And, they're all up for reelection this year.

A number of pundits will gag and choke if they try to spit out this line, "independents are primarily responsible for Democrats' improved positioning." But, I suspect you won't hear that much. It defies the current conventional wisdom.

Now, the not-so-good news. The Republican base is motivated. Really motivated:

Simultaneous with increased support for Democratic congressional candidates, Gallup polling last week found Republican voters expressing significantly more enthusiasm about voting in the 2010 midterms. The 51% of Republicans saying they are "very enthusiastic" about voting this fall is up from 40% the week prior, and is the highest since early April -- shortly after passage of healthcare reform. Democratic enthusiasm is unchanged, at 28%.

Trying to scare the Democratic base with images of Speaker Boehner and Majority Leader McConnell isn't enough to motivate the base.

The Democratic leadership in DC needs to rile up its base. Creating jobs and getting the economy moving is most important. But, there are several constituencies, including LGBTs, Latinos and labor, that need some motivation. And, there's still time to motivate them. Read More......

Senate election forecast from Nate

From 538.com:

Our latest Senate simulation has the chamber convening in 2011 with an average of 53.5 Democrats (counting Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders), 46.0 Republicans, and 0.5 Charlie Crists.

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Hill memo tells Dems to cheer up

From Sam Stein at Huff Post. These are the main points of the memo.

-- President Obama is much more popular than President Bush was in 2006 or President Clinton was in 1994.

-- Similarly, more voters trust the President and Congressional Democrats to lead the country than trust Republicans to do so.

-- In fact, on what may be the most important issue of this election -- the economy -- Democrats lead Republicans in voter trust, and do so by a similar margin to Democrats in 2006 and a larger margin than Republicans in 1994.

-- And voters don't just trust Democrats on the economy; they support Democrats' legislative efforts to improve the American economy and to move our country forward in other ways. And voters are more likely to support candidates who back the Democratic agenda.

-- Despite voter support for Democrats on key issue tests like the economy, some polls do show narrow support for Republicans over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot. However, Republicans hold only a tenuous lead in such polls, with generic support for Republicans this year nowhere near that of Democrats in 2006.

-- Similarly, Republican cheerleaders have cited polling showing support for GOP control of Congress as an electoral boon; however, such polling has proven an unreliable indicator of electoral results.

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West Virginia has a new Senator

The Governor has picked a successor to Robert Byrd:

Gov. Joe Manchin is tapping his former chief counsel and a member of a prominent West Virginia family, Carte Goodwin, to succeed the late U.S. Sen. Robert C. Byrd, Democratic officials told The Associated Press on Friday.

Three officials familiar with the governor's pick spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment ahead of an official announcement.

The Charleston Gazette reported earlier this week that Goodwin had become the front-runner for the appointment.

This is a temporary assignment. The permanent successor will be chosen by the voters in November. Governor Manchin is expected to run for the seat. Read More......

Poll Fix: Senate races in CA, PA, NV and MO

Over the past couple days, there have been a slew of polls from key Senate races. So, here's a poll fix.

California Senate:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Boxer with 49% support versus Fiorina’s 42%. Four percent (4%) favor another candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

Pennsylvania Senate:

Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak and Republican Pat Toomey are locked in a 43 - 43 percent tie in their race for the U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Nevada Senate via Jon Ralston:

The Reid folks surely are not going to count their chickens, but they could not have hatched a better scenario than what is unfolding. That was confirmed Tuesday by a Rasmussen Reports poll showing a dead heat (Angle, 46 percent; Reid, 43 percent). And with Rasmussen considered the pollster most favorable to Republican candidates, there are those who will conclude Reid actually is ahead.

Missouri Senate:

The Missouri Senate race has squeezed to a near tie but remains largely the same way it’s been for months with Republican Roy Blunt barely ahead of Democrat Robin Carnahan.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Show Me State finds Blunt with 47% support and Carnahan earning 45% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided.

Blunt has a right wing/teabagger opponent, Chuck Purgason, in the GOP primary on August 3rd. Rasmussen didn't poll that race. Read More......

As House leaders head to White House, Pelosi calls Gibbs 'politically inept'

This morning, eight House Demcoratic leaders are heading to the White House to meet with President Obama. Among the attendees are Speaker Pelosi, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and the Chair of the DCCC, Chris Van Hollen. They're going to be talking about the legislative agenda, but as I said in the open thread, they really need to talk about the upcoming elections. This meeting plays out against the backdrop of the comments from Robert Gibbs that Democrats could lose the House this fall.

Apparently, those comments didn't sit well with the House Democratic caucus -- and the Speaker:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) slammed White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs during Tuesday night’s House Democratic Caucus meeting for saying Sunday that Democrats could lose control of the House in November.

Several Democratic sources in the room described a testy scenario that started with Rep. Bill Pascrell Jr. (N.J.) criticizing Gibbs for saying on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that there is “no doubt there’s enough seats in play” to allow for a House GOP takeover in 2012. Things heated up as Pelosi jumped in and blasted Gibbs for making “politically inept” comments, according to one source.

“It was bad,” another source said. “She was like: ‘I don’t appreciate it. I don’t know who this guy is. I’ve never met him before. And he’s saying that we’re going to lose the House.’”

The House has delivered on the Obama agenda. House Democrats have fought harder for the agenda than Obama's White House has.

Gibbs and the White House crew should be trying to figure out how to win in the fall, not giving ammo to the GOPers.

I have no doubt that some politicos think it might be easier for Obama to run for reelection if the GOPers control the House. But, we didn't elect Obama so he can run for reelection. We elected him to enact an agenda. It's been hard enough with Democrats in control. Nothing will happen if the GOPers have real power. Nothing. And, the White House will spend all of its time responding to subpoenas from Darrell Issa. Read More......

Whitman Buys GOP Operative (or more fun in CA!)

Was buying GOP strategist Mike Murphy from Steve Poizner, who was running for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, simply a good investment or was it actually a campaign expense?

Today's New York Times explores a single entry on Meg Whitman's financial disclosures from late 2008: $1 million in an “entertainment/production” company called “Tools Down! Productions.” The company was owned by Mike Murphy widely known for his strategery with McCain and the Guvernator.

Whitman was throwing cash at Mr. Murphy's dream of becoming a Hollywood player to make sure he was not part of the opposition team - and could possibly become a quarterback on hers.

In the summer of 2008, he had been "flirting" with the Poizner campaign, observing focus groups and even a drafting memo for the candidate. But, he was not match for Whitman's bottomless cup of cash and Murphy's yearning for his name in lights.

On Nov. 4, 2008 — two days after Mr. Murphy responded to another entreaty from the Poizner campaign by saying he was “tired of politics” and would definitely not be available to work for it — Ms. Whitman signed a partnership agreement with Mr. Murphy, taking an ownership stake in his movie company, according to her campaign.

He was not tired long.

In the end, Mr. Murphy’s political hiatus went into intermission quickly. By late 2009, he had already returned to politics. He became a “senior adviser” to his benefactor, Ms. Whitman, taking in fees of $665,000 for his first six months, according to her latest campaign finance report.

But, is this kosher?

A business investment, as opposed to a cash gift, offers tax advantages, including the ability to write off losses, as well as the avoidance of gift taxes. If the investment’s purpose was actually political, there are also questions about whether it should have been legally disclosed as a campaign expense.

We'll have to see what the experts say. (I am waiting to hear back.)

Turns out Hollywood types think Murphy has a talent for Tinseltown. We now know he most definitely knows how to write a script that pays. Read More......

BP Republicans

From the Hill:

Democrats launched a new website on Friday highlighting BP Republicans meant to highlight different GOP lawmakers' defenses of the oil company.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) seized on Nevada Republican candidate for Senate Sharron Angle's criticism of a $20 billion fund BP created to pay damages to victims of the oil spill, and sought to tie other GOP lawmakers to BP.

The DNC set up a new site, BPRepublicans.com, which casts GOP lawmakers as representing the interests of the oil company in Washington, and not their constituents.

The first image on the site targets Angle, who called the $20 billion account a slush fund on Wednesday, before backing off those remarks later in the day.

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Obama toughens rhetoric on Republicans

He even blamed them for the economic crisis. Good, and much-needed. From AP:

President Barack Obama on Thursday cast upcoming elections as a choice between the party that caused the economic meltdown and the one that's fixing it, seizing on a populist, sharply partisan theme for the critical November midterms.

"We don't have to guess how the other party will govern because we're still living with the results from the last time they governed," Obama said at a fundraiser for Missouri Democratic Senate hopeful Robin Carnahan in Kansas City. "It's a choice between falling backward and moving forward."

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Reid's GOP opponent sends him cease and desist, for reposting her own Web site

I'm sensing a few things here. One, Harry Reid's opponent Sharron Angle is a bit dumb. Two, she's a bit strong-headed, as someone on staff must have told her that the last thing she needs to do is help Reid publicize her wacky earlier statements - which is exactly what she's doing, by sending Reid a cease-and-desist. From The Hill:

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Republican nominee Sharon Angle traded jabs over the weekend after Angle's campaign took legal action to prevent her opponent from re-posting an old version of her campaign website on the Internet.

Reid's campaign still mocked the letter as a "threat of a frivolous lawsuit" and took a parting shot of its own.

“These are Sharron Angle’s positions in Sharron’s own words from Sharron’s own website. What was good enough for Nevada voters to read during the primary should be good enough for them now,” said Reid campaign spokesman Jon Summers.

You can find the site here: http://www.sharronsundergroundbunker.com/ Read More......

Roy Blunt's has a new TV ad, which omits the key fact that he's been in Congress for 14 years

GOP Congressman Roy Blunt, who is running for Senate in Missouri, has a new t.v. ad out this week. But, there's a glaring omission:

What Blunt doesn't say in his first statewide commercial: He is a member of Congress, and more -- for part of the time when Republicans had control, he was majority leader.

Why? Why would a GOPer not mention that he's served in Congress -- and as a leader for part of that time? Because Blunt is facing a real right-winger in the August 3rd GOP primary. Clearly, that's a cause for concern:

While the ad is directed at Democratic-controlled Washington, Republican insiders in the Show-Me State say the campaign's decision to go on the air this early is an effort to improve Blunt's soft GOP primary numbers against the underfunded and first-time statewide candidate Chuck Purgason.

Purgason, a state senator known in Jefferson City for his trademark bolo tie, publicized the endorsement of Joe "The Plumber" Wurzelbacher last week and snagged 18 percent against Blunt in March, according to a Public Policy Polling survey.

Purgason is not considered a serious threat, but top GOP-ers say the Blunt campaign wants to make certain the congressman nets more than 65 percent on Aug. 3.

Sharron Angle wasn't considered a serious threat, either.

There's more at play here. See, Roy has "gone DC." Big time. In fact, Purgason's radio ad portrays Blunt as a "Washington insider." That's like the kiss of death to teabaggers. But, there are facts to back it up. Blunt dumped his wife to marry a lobbyist. He's got close ties to Wall Street. Teabaggers are supposedly all about the debt and deficit, but, as a GOP leader, Roy helped take the U.S. from a surplus to a $1.2 trillion deficit. Plus, he considers swanky Georgetown, not Missouri, his home now.

Blunt's poll numbers have to be pretty "soft" for him to go on t.v. now. If "Joe the Plumber" is on board with Purgason, can Sarah Palin be far behind? Just wondering. Blunt symbolizes many of the things Palin purports to eschew. One thing is clear: Roy Blunt's got problems with his GOP base. And, Blunt must think the people of Missouri are really dumb if he thinks he can hide the fact that he's been in Congress for 14 years. Read More......

Kick-ass ad about GOP serial liar Mark Kirk (IL Senate candidate)

Spot on ad.

Read More......

GOPers target Pelosi (again), but they should be worried about Boehner

Today's Washington Post reports that the GOPers are going to target Speaker Nancy Pelosi in elections this year. Um, heard it. It's not like the Post and other political reporters haven't written that story dozens of times over the past ten years. Here's a news flash for the DC political reporters: GOPers have been targeting Pelosi for years. By now, Pelosi's caucus is used to it and know how to fight back against the attacks.

One thing you can say about Speaker Pelosi is that she would never make the kinds of gaffes that her GOP counterpart is making. This week alone, in one speech, Boehner said he'd cut Social Security to fund wars and he actually stated that the recent global economic crisis, the "Great Recession," was an "ant."

Yep, this week, John Boehner not only defined the GOP. He made himself a campaign issue. Boehner told us how he'd govern as Speaker: Wall Street would win. Seniors would lose. It's pretty clear Boehner has disdain and contempt for Americans who suffered in the economic crisis. He and his fellow GOPers drove us over the economic cliff -- and they could care less.

So, the GOP can target Pelosi (again.) The Democrats now have John Boehner to kick around -- and there's so much fodder:
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Harry Reid's GOP opponent, Sharron Angle, backs off language about 'taking out' Harry Reid

She's a nut. Though, interestingly, she, like Rand Paul, is beginning to learn that while being a nut is great for your CV in a GOP primary, it's substantially less helpful for the general election. Read More......

Obama hits Boehner for calling economic crisis 'an ant'

Bra-vo.

“We’re on the verge of passing the most comprehensive financial reform since the Great Depression—reform that will prevent a crisis like this from happening again. It’s reform that will protect our economy from the recklessness and irresponsibility of a few. Reform that will protect consumers against the unfair practices of credit card companies and mortgage lenders. Reform that ensures taxpayers are never again on the hook for Wall Street’s mistakes.

“But most of our friends in the other party are planning on voting against this reform. In fact, just yesterday, I was stunned to hear the leader of the Republicans in the House say that financial reform was like using a nuclear weapon to target an ant. That’s right. He compared the financial crisis to an ant. The same financial crisis that led to the loss of nearly eight million jobs. The same crisis that cost people their homes and their lives savings.

“Well if the Republican leader is that out of touch with the struggles facing the American people, he should come here to Racine and ask people if they think the financial crisis was an ant. He should ask the men and women who’ve been out of work for months at a time. He should ask the Americans who send me letters every night that talk about how they’re barely hanging on.

“These Americans don’t believe the financial crisis was an ant. They know that it’s what led to the worst recession since the Great Depression. And they expect their leaders in Washington to do whatever it takes to make sure a crisis like this never happens again. The Republican leader might want to maintain a status quo on Wall Street. But we want to move America forward.”

“We already tried the other side’s ideas. We already know where their theories led us. And now we have a choice as a nation. We can return to the failed economic policies of the past, or we can keep building a stronger future. We can go backward, or we can keep moving forward. I don’t know about you, but I want to move forward.”

This is how you win legislative battles - by hitting back, hard. We're seeing a lot more of this from the President lately, in contrast to his earlier efforts to make friends with the Republicans at the expensive of his policy promises. Now he's putting what's best for the country first. It's a bit late, but still, this will help. Read More......

Rand Paul dodges question on how old the earth is

I guess someone has learned his lesson. Read More......

White House blasts Boehner as out of touch with America

Good. Excellent, in fact. This is the kind of thing the White House should have been doing a year ago, but it's still excellent they seem to understand that now.

The White House harshly criticized Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, the top House Republican, on Tuesday, calling him “completely out of touch with America” because of his opposition to new regulations on Wall Street.

People care about substance. They also care to see whether their politicians have balls. Read More......

When will West Virginia's special election be to replace Robert Byrd?

From Cillizza at the Post:

West Virginia law states that if there is a Senate vacancy more than two and a half years before the incumbent's term ends, a special election would be called for this November. That two and a half year mark is July 3 -- four days from now.

But, as the Post's Paul Kane notes, the language of the law is unclear as it sets up a schedule that would begin the special election process after the "primary next", meaning, according to Democrats, in the spring of 2012. Such a schedule would place the special election in November 2012 when Byrd's 9th term would have ended anyway.

The decision of how to read the law will almost certainly come down to Gov. Joe Manchin, a Democrat and the person seen as the most likely long term successor to Byrd in the Senate.

And, either way, Manchin will be required to appoint someone to serve out Byrd's term -- whether it is determined that the term ends this fall or in the fall of 2012. One name being mentioned for that caretaker appointment is state Democratic Party Chairman Nick Casey.

More from Hotline OnCall:

State law says Manchin's appointment will be valid "until a successor to the office has timely filed a certificate of candidacy, has been nominated at the primary election next following such timely filing and has thereafter been elected and qualified to fill the unexpired term."

The WV primary took place May 11, making it unlikely that a special election will take place this year. And odd-year elections, used in many states to pick local officials, are a rarity in WV. In recent years, voters went to the polls only in '05, when they voted on a constitutional amendment. No elections were held in '07, '03 or '01.

Because the primary has already occured, the next opportunity to "timely file" will be Jan. '12 -- when Byrd's seat would have come open anyway. A primary would follow in May, with a special election to be held in concurrence with a general election later that year.

There is settled case law on the point. In '94, Kanawha Co. Circuit Court Judge John Hey resigned in April. A local GOP party chairman sued then-Gov. Gaston Caperton (D) to try and compel a special election for the following Nov. The state Supreme Court, in Robb v. Caperton, ruled against the local party chairman and said Caperton's appointee would serve until the '96 election, when the office would have come up for election anyway.

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Mark Kirk, damaged goods

From AP:

Kirk, a 21-year veteran in the Navy Reserve, was caught exaggerating his military record. He claimed an award he didn't win. He mentioned serving in overseas conflicts while he was safely in the United States. He stretched the facts when talking about combat and coming under fire. And his troubles don't end there: Even his references to being a teacher are being questioned.

But the revelations undermine Kirk's credibility, which was supposed to be a major asset.

Kirk has largely disappeared from public view since apologizing for misstating his military credentials. He did give a speech Monday but wound up fleeing from reporters afterward when they wanted to ask questions about the issue.

Meanwhile, Giannoulias is sharing the spotlight at fundraisers with Vice President Joe Biden, Education Secretary Arne Duncan and others with ties to Obama. White House officials now see Kirk's troubles as an opportunity for the Democratic nominee, and have moved to try to capitalize on the GOP nominee's woes. They've dispatched White House Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina to the state, and other top Obama officials also are expected to appear before November.

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In MO GOP Senate race, Teabagger Purgason 'has been gaining some momentum'

This might just be a race to watch.

The Republican Senate primary is on August 3rd. The conventional wisdom is that Roy Blunt will win. He's got the money. And, Blunt's been around for a long time. He's quite the DC insider (He's gone very DC -- the new Georgetown Social Safeway is his local grocery store.) As we know, this year, that's not an asset.

The candidate running to the right of Blunt in the GOP primary is Chuck Purgason. Blunt's been trying to ignore Purgason, but that got a lot harder today. Chuck went on the air with a radio ad attacking Blunt:

State Sen. Chuck Purgason, R-Caulfield, might be the one candidate for U.S. Senate in Missouri with the least amount of money, but he's found enough of it to produce his first radio ad, and in it, he aims his rhetoric directly at fellow Republican Roy Blunt.

Blunt, a congressman from Springfield, has long been the establishment Republican in the race, and is expected to face Democrat Robin Carnahan in November.

But Purgason has been gaining some momentum, and in his radio ad, he points out that other establishment candidates in Utah, Kentucky and Nevada found themselves on the losing side of a primary.

The ad is here. There are several direct swipes at Blunt and the term "Washington insiders" is used four times. The disclaimer is "Paid for by Chuck Purgason for U.S. Senate because integrity does matter."

Defeating "Washington Insider" Blunt would be quite a coup for the teabaggers. Read More......