From my fourth-floor room at the Rio, I can see beautiful people frolicking in the glorious pool area in sparkling sunshine (albeit sunshine that is generating 109 degree heat).
Me? I am ensconced in an easy chair. Typing a bunch of political news on a laptop.
Never let it be said that I don't love you people.
With that bit of gratuitous whining out of the way, please enjoy the Wednesday edition of the Wrap, live from Las Vegas!
THE U.S. SENATE
CT-Sen: Simmons makes (halting) comeback to Senate race
Last week, former GOP Congressman Rob Simmons made a much publicized flirtation with leaping back into the U.S. Senate race in the Nutmeg State. That became all but official today, as Simmons returned to the airwaves with an ad encouraging voters to "vote with your heart and your head." It closes with an extremely telling tagline: "I'm Rob Simmons, I'm still on the ballot, and I approved this message." The campaign of GOP frontrunner Linda McMahon was swift and unsparing with their response, accusing Simmons of breaking his word to Connecticut Republicans, as he promised to honor the results of the May nominating convention.
FL-Sen: Did newcomer Greene buy a Senate endorsement?
The timing, of course, could entirely be a coincidence. But something about this move has a certain unpleasant odor. Billionaire upstart Jeff Greene, who jumped into the Democratic Senate primary late and has spent lavishly, might have spent a little cash buying some credibility. At issue was an endorsement of DNC member Jon Ausman. It came, quite curiously, not long after Greene had paid Ausman $4000 for what was described as "political consultation and strategy." Greene is going heads-up with Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek in the primary scheduled for next month.
LA-Sen: What is it about those Louisiana Republicans?!
Two weeks ago, former state Supreme Court justice Chet Traylor made waves with an 11th hour primary challenge to incumbent GOP Senator David Vitter. Now, it looks like Vitter and Traylor might have even more in common than previously thought. With Traylor now a big statewide player, some folks are coming forward to claim that Traylor has had illicit affairs with a pair of married women, and that he might have been the catalyst for a divorce between a Democratic state representative and his wife (who later became Traylor's wife). Remember, folks, that Traylor was recruited to run because Republicans were scared that Vitter's personal foibles were rendering him unelectable.
WV-Sen: Capito decides to forgo Senate bid, dashing GOP hopes
Color me considerably surprised by this move. When state GOPers insisted on the ability for special election candidates to be able to run in two races simultaneously, it seemed to be that they were greasing the skids for Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito to make a bid. Today, Capito dashed those hopes by announcing that she will not be a candidate in the special election to be held in November. This leaves John Raese, who ran against the late Senator Robert Byrd in 2006 and was easily defeated, as the most likely Republican to make the leap. Democrats are likely to coalesce quickly around Governor Joe Manchin, who announced his Senate bid yesterday. Today, incidentally, Manchin drew a (ahem) unique primary challenger: former Democratic Congressman and Secretary of State Ken Hechler. Politico writer Shira Toeplitz dubs Hechler a "veteran Dem". Um...that's an understatement: Hechler, at the tender age of 95, was first elected to Congress back in 1958.
THE U.S. HOUSE
GA-04/GA-09/GA-12: Primary day post-mortem
One incumbent did get forced into a runoff last night in Georgia, while two prominent Democrats withstood serious primary threats. The incumbent forced into a runoff isn't a big shock--it was newly minted Rep. Tom Graves, who was just elected to the seat one month ago in the wake of Nathan Deal's resignation to run for Governor. Graves came just shy in his conservative district (GA-09) of clearing 50%, coming to rest at 49.5%. The man he defeated in a special election a few weeks back, state legislator Lee Hawkins, made the runoff at 27% of the vote. Graves will be an overwhelming favorite in the runoff next month. Meanwhile, two potentially perilous Democratic primaries were held, and the incumbents managed to make it to November without needing runoffs. In Atlanta's 4th district, Hank Johnson (55% of the vote) repelled the twin challenges of former DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones and county commissioner Connie Stokes. Downstate, John Barrow did a little bit better, defeating Regina Thomas in their rematch of the 2008 Democratic primary by sixteen points (58-42). Two other mild surprises were the failure of wealthy state legislator Clay Cox to make it into a runoff in GA-07, and the slightly disappointing showing for state legislator Austin Scott in GA-08, where the highly-touted GOP contender barely avoided a runoff.
HI-01: Hanabusa makes point while making peace with national Dems
Now that she has a clean shot at newly-elected Republican incumbent Rep. Charles Djou in Hawaii, Colleen Hanabusa's relationship with the DCCC and national Democrats has begun to thaw. That said, she wants to make it clear to them that they erred badly in trying to nudge her out of the race in favor of former Democratic Congressman Ed Case. Hanabusa dinged the national Dems for not trusting the fact that, as a longtime veteran of local politics, she did not have a better read on the situation than they did: "I'm president of the Senate. I'm not a neophyte when it comes to understanding political alignments and misalignments."
IA-02: Miller-Meeks internal poll claims much closer race than '08
Crisitunity's must read Daily Digest over at Swing State Project offers up yet another intriguing internal poll from a GOP campaign. This one comes from Iowa GOPer Marianette Miller-Meeks, who lost to Democratic incumbent Dave Loebsack quite easily (57-39) in 2008. This time around, Miller-Meeks' polling from Susquehanna Research is singing a very different tune. She claims that her polling shows her down by just five points (46-41) to the sophomore Democrat.
MI-08: Candidate wages write-in bid to replace departed Dem
Democrats were left holding the bag in the Spring, when shortly after the filing deadline, Democrat Kande Ngalamulume dropped his bid to face Mike Rogers in the 8th district. With no other Democrats on the ballot, it looked like Rogers might get a free ride for 2010. There is a Democrat, however, fielding a write-in bid to win the nomination. His name is Lance Enderle, he has great taste in neckwear (click the link--it's worth it), and he has run for office in the past. Enderle, a teacher and coach who was one of many educators to lose his job in the state budget crunch, would need to meet a baseline number of votes, even if he manages to earn more votes than Ngalamulume in the Democratic primary.
VA-05: SUSA poll claims massive GOP lead in Dem-held seat
This is probably the most pessimistic poll for a Democratic candidate in this cycle not named Blanche Lincoln. A new poll out late last night from SurveyUSA claims a lead of twenty-three points for Republican state legislator Rob Hurt over Democratic freshman Rep. Tom Perriello. Some critics have pointed out that the partisan breakdown of the poll was vastly different than SUSA's 2008 polls here. However, SUSA, mindful of that criticism, points out that Perriello would still trail, even with the previous turnout model intact.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
FL-Gov: Fractious GOP propels Sink into November lead, says PPP
Yesterday, PPP teased potentially explosive results in their gubernatorial poll in the Sunshine State. Clearly, the results of that poll show that the teaser from yesterday was not hyperbole. The new poll has Alex Sink with a legitimate advantage over either Republican in the field. Against newcomer Rick Scott, Sink enjoys a six point edge (36-30), with 13% for Dem-turned-Indie Bud Chiles. When paired with veteran state Attorney General Bill McCollum, the lead stretches to double digits (37-23), with Chiles back at 14%. The key is the incredible disregard with which Scott or McCollum backers hold the other Republican in the field. Given that, the former Dem Chiles might actually be helping Sink, by offering an option for those taking sides in this GOP blood feud.
GA-Gov: Handel gets another 2012 aspirant into her corner for runoff
About a week after Sarah Palin cast her lot with Georgia GOP gubernatorial candidate Karen Handel, Handel got love from another major player in the 2012 GOP carousel of candidates. Today, it was Mitt Romney, who offered his vocal support, as well as the support we have come to know and love from Mitt--cold, hard cash. Romney tossed a $1000 check in Handel's direction. Handel led the field of GOP candidates in last night's primary, earning 34% of the vote. Congressman Nathan Deal, who earned 23% of the vote last night, enters the runoff with the endorsement of yet another '12 player: former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
NV-Gov: Sandoval with solid lead in general election, according to PPP
While the numbers aren't quite as bad as Rasmussen has continued to insist, yet another poll hands Nevada Republican Brian Sandoval a double digit advantage over Democrat Rory Reid in the battle to replace Jim Gibbons as the state's governor. The new poll out today from PPP gives Sandoval a fourteen-point (52-38) advantage over Reid, a Clark County Commissioner and the son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
RI-Gov: Rhode Island teachers union spurns Democrat, goes Indie
Today, Rhode Island Democrats probably felt the first negative side effect of the exit of more liberal Democratic candidate Patrick Lynch from the gubernatorial race in Rhode Island. The Rhode Island Federation of Teachers and Health Professionals has offered their endorsement to Republican-turned-Independent Lincoln Chafee, the former U.S. Senator. Most intriguing in the story: union officials said that the Democratic frontrunner (state treasurer Frank Caprio) chose not to be interviewed for the endorsement.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
As I noted during the midday open thread, even the Ras-sies couldn't find enough lipstick for Minnesota GOP nominee Tom Emmer, who has dropped precipitously since the last time the House of Ras headed to the state. We also get new data from Idaho, Ohio, and Kentucky. While Idaho is a little bit of a surprise (GOP Governor Butch Otter is not exactly destroying Democrat Keith Allred), Ohio and Kentucky are utterly predictable.
ID-Gov: Gov. Butch Otter (R) 53%, Keith Allred (D) 36%
KY-Sen: Rand Paul (R) 49%, Jack Conway (D) 41%
MN-Gov: Margaret Anderson-Kelliher (D) 40%, Tom Emmer (R) 35%, Tom Horner (I) 11%
MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 40%, Tom Emmer (R) 36%, Tom Horner (I) 10%
MN-Gov: Matt Entenza (D) 37%, Tom Emmer (R) 36%, Tom Horner (I) 12%
OH-Gov: John Kasich (R) 48%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 43%