Critical Issues
Germany: Business Confidence Unexpectedly Jumps to Three-Year High in July
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Germany: Industrial Order Activity and Industrial Production Suggest Strong Economic Upswing
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Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator Hits 15-Months Low
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German Q1 GDP Growth Confirmed at 0.2% q/q, Lifted by Inventories and Exports
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What's the Outlook for German Economic Growth in 2010?
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Germany: What Is the Outlook for Investment?
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What will be the Shape of the German Recovery?
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Will East Germany's Economy Ever Catch-Up with its Western Counterpart?
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Background:
Germany is the fifth largest economy in the world and the largest in the European Union. Germany relies on the economic model of a social market economy which combines elements of market capitalism with a generous welfare state and strong labor protection. While Germany has an impressive economic track record, the German economy is also suffering from structural problems such as high unemployment, low GDP growth, a rigid labor market and an unsustainable welfare state. In addition, the economies of those states which used to represent East Germany are still underperforming. As a result of painful reforms implemented by former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, Germany was able to fully take advantage of a booming global economy after 2003. Germany’s strength lies in manufacturing and the economy depends excessively on exports as a result of which it is one of the most volatile in the world. Small and medium sized firms which specialize in niche products, rely on bank financing and are often privately owned make up the backbone of the German economy. These firms, which are highly dynamic and competitive, employ roughly two-thirds of the German workforce.
Looking forward, Germany is facing strong economic headwinds. The economy which entered into a severe recession in the second quarter of 2008, is set to register one of the sharpest GDP declines in 2009 among industrialized countries despite a large fiscal stimulus package. While the German economy is in a good position to take advantage of a rebound in global growth it has been facing severe criticism for its export-dependent growth model and calls to rebalance the economy by relying more on domestic demand are growing louder. Furthermore, the recession will leave Germany with a much larger budget deficit which is already under pressure from ballooning social security spending, largely the result of an ageing society.
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