A humble reminder, once more: if you are here with us in the the lovely (and toasty) metropolis of Las Vegas, you can catch me, Markos Moulitsas, Laura Clawson, Joan McCarter, and the entire Swing State Project crew tomorrow afternoon at 4:30 PM, as we lead a Q&A on the 2010 elections. For those on site, we will be getting after it in the Brasilia 6 meeting room.
Having tossed out the obligatory plug, we can now press onward, to a pretty intriguing Thursday edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
AK-Sen: Public poll of contested primary shows an incumbent rout
There is now nonpartisan polling out of Alaska on the much-hyped primary between incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski and teabagger-and-Palin propelled candidate Joe Miller. The early indications are that this race is largely uncompetitive. Murkowski currently holds a 62-30 lead over Miller, according to the poll by locally-based pollster Ivan Moore Research. The two candidates will square off in their primary on August 24th.
CO-Sen: Ken Buck--vote for me because "I don't wear high heels"
This might not be the "Macaca moment" that the campaign of establishment favorite Jane Norton hopes, but it is was nonetheless are pretty stupid unforced error. Apparently, Buck took umbrage to Norton's commentary that Buck should be "man enough" to attack her directly, rather than through outside groups. His manhood having thusly called into question, he launched into a freewheeling response at a campaign event that bordered on being...well...dumb. When asked by a guest why they should vote for him, Buck's flip response was "Because I do not wear high heels." This was apparently in response to Norton's occasional tendency to invoke her gender (particularly wearing high heels). He then, to further cement his manliness, used the word "bullshit" a few times before finishing off. Not surprisingly, it took Norton about forty-five seconds to craft an ad on Buck's outburst.
FL-Sen: Meek still leads Dem primary, but it is close
Right now, according to the crack polling crew at PPP, Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek has withstood the assault from wealthy late arrival to the race Jeff Greene. But the race is extremely close, and half the electorate is still on the fence. Meek holds, at present, a 28-25 lead over Greene, according to the PPP poll released today.
LA-Sen: Dem internal poll moves Senate race to toss-up
Apparently, the tussle over his disgraced staffer, once coupled to his other personal dramas, has moved the needle in his Senate re-election race against Democrat Charlie Melancon. At least that is the take from a new internal poll for Melancon, by Anzalone Liszt. The pollster has Vitter at 44%, with Melancon right on his heels at 43%. Furthermore, the A-L polling memo suggest that if Melancon can merely replicate what other Democrats have done with African-American voters, he likely moves into the lead over Vitter.
NH-Sen: Give Senate candidate credit for the clever tie-in
Given that much of the progressive political community has congregated in Las Vegas this week for Netroots Nation, you gotta give likely Democratic Senate nominee Paul Hodes credit for taking a timely approach to his race. His crew launched a site today, "Paul's All In" (a poker reference, for the uninitiated) both makes an appeal to the netroots by the candidate, as well as taking shots at the coterie of right-wingers vying for the nomination on the other side.
NC-Sen: Another Dem internal poll puts GOP incumbent behind
Also emerging from the world of internal polling today was a real head-turner: according to a new poll for Democratic challenger Elaine Marshall, she has moved into the lead against freshman incumbent Republican Richard Burr. The poll, from Lake Research, has Marshall at 37%, Burr at 35%, and Libertarian candidate Mike Beitler at 5%. Burr has moved, according to the poll, from being unknown to unliked--his favorability spread was a fairly woeful 34/43.
WA-Sen: Dino Rossi tries to needle Murray, jabs self with needle
If this is the kind of high-quality campaign Patty Murray can expect from likely Republican rival Dino Rossi, then she has to be feeling awfully good about her chances. Rossi's campaign decided to take a shot at Murray for a "flip-flop" on the UI extensions. Rossi claimed that Murray voted for a Tom Coburn-sponsored amendment demanding that any extension of unemployment benefits be offset by budget cuts, despite long proclaiming that she would never entertain such a notion. The only problem with Rossi's broadside? It was nowhere near accurate. Murray had voted for an entirely different Coburn amendment, one dealing with budget transparency. Rossi's campaign stuck to its guns on the charge for about a day before admitting their mistake. Here's betting that the Rossi oppo research team won't be seeing raises any time soon.
WV-Sen: Raese leaps into the race...with ethnic humor?!
Somewhere in the campaign guidebook, there must be a corollary about not invoking ethnic humor into a campaign, especially on the day you are entering said campaign. Apparently, wealthy GOP businessman John Raese missed that page in the guidebook. Raese jumped into the race by comparing the Democratic frontrunner, Joe Manchin, to Tony Soprano. Manchin, indeed, is of Italian ancestry. He also, to prove that his bad humor is not merely ethnic in nature, referred to newly appointed interim Senator Carte Goodwin as "Carte Blanche." With that razor-like wit, expect Raese to make a big impact on the campaign circuit, if not in the Catskills.
THE U.S. HOUSE
KS-01: Local newspaper revokes GOP endorsement for birtherism
One has to imagine that the local media in the uber-conservative Kansas 1st district is not exactly a reservoir of liberalism. Viewed through that lens, this is a extraordinary rebuke. The Hutchinson News has revoked its recent endorsement of Tracey Mann in the crowded GOP primary in the 1st, on the grounds that Mann is an espoused proponent of birtherism. In its retraction announcement, the editorial board said the following:
Whether Mann truly doubts the president's citizenship or is just saying so in another effort to appeal to the far-right extremists of his party and get elected we don't know. Either way, it is unflattering and doesn't demonstrate the kind of intellect we want representing us in Congress.
The newspaper elected not to replace Mann with another candidate, meaning that they will make no formal endorsement for the August 3rd primary.
VA-09: Boucher holds double-digit lead in new SUSA poll
Given the reddish nature of the "Fighting Ninth" district in southern Virginia, the name of longtime Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher has made its way onto a few target lists among the pundit class. But a new poll by SurveyUSA has the Democrat solidly ahead of his Republican challenger, state legislator Morgan Griffith. According to SUSA, Boucher has a thirteen-point lead (52-39) over Griffith.
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: DCCC lays out the cash, targets seventeen seats
Anyone interested about the districts the DCCC are most interested in defending might have gotten a clue from where the campaign wing of House Democrats plunked down the cash for advance media buys. In total, the DCCC has bought nearly eight million dollars of air time in markets reaching seventeen vulnerable districts. Here is the complete list of districts: CO-04 (Markey), FL-02 (Boyd), ID-01 (Minnick), IN-02 (Donnelly), IA-03 (Boswell), NM-01 (Heinrich), NM-02 (Teague), NY-23 (Owens), NY-24 (Arcuri), NC-08 (Kissell), PA-03 (Dahlkemper), PA-12 (Critz), SC-05 (Spratt), SD-AL (Herseth-Sandlin), TX-23 (Rodriguez), VA-02 (Nye), VA-05 (Perriello)
Remember, of course, that this is the first round of buys, so the ommission of certain districts one would expect to be targetted (all of the Philly-area districts being off the list caught my eye, for example). Also, one could expect that the DCCC will also play some offense in places like IL-10, DE-AL, and LA-02.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CO-Gov: Has the GOP bailed out of Colorado?
The local website Colorado Pols thinks that the Republicans have bailed out of the Colorado Governors race in the wake of the twin implosions of Scott McInnis and Dan Maes. The Republican Governor's Association denied it, but the Colorado Pols site thinks there is mounting evidence to suggest otherwise.
FL-Gov: Scott has laid McCollum out, according to PPP poll
Super-rich health care magnate Rick Scott's free-spending entrance into the Florida Governor's race has clearly turned it on its head, for sure. One thing has become clear, though: he is now the decisive frontrunner for the GOP nomination. This is confirmed by today's new poll from PPP, which has Scott staked to a double-digit lead (43-29) over the former frontrunner in the race, state Attorney General Bill McCollum. Interestingly, neither candidate is beloved even within their own party, with Scott more "liked" at a mediocre 35/32 spread among Republicans.
MI-Gov: Dillon snags another major endorsement in Dem primary
Over the past couple of weeks, Democratic contenders Andy Dillon and Virg Bernero have been playing tit-for-tat with regard to big-time Democratic endorsements. Dillon just smashed the ball back into Bernero's court today, having nailed down the endorsement of the newly elected mayor of Detroit, Dave Bing.
OH-Gov: News flash--John Kasich is not a nice man
This is pretty damned funny, all in all: alternative Columbus media outlet The Other Paper chronicles one of those poorly-kept secrets in American politics: Ohio GOP gubernatorial nominee John Kasich has something of a short temper. My personal favorite: Kasich pulling a "do you know who I am" rant on a teenaged grocery store clerk when the clerk demanded two forms of ID for Kasich's DC-based out-of-state check.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
Shock of shocks: team Ras becomes one of the first pollsters in recent memory to keep Republican Marco Rubio out in front of the Senate race in Florida. They also give the GOP the narrow edge in Georgia, in advance of next month's gubernatorial runoff. However, even the House of Ras can't propel the GOP into the lead in either Arkansas (although they join Talk Business in giving incumbent Governor Mike Beebe a somewhat narrow edge) or New York.
AR-Gov: Gov. Mike Beebe (D) 50%, Jim Keet (R) 40%
FL-Sen: Marco Rubio (R) 35%, Charlie Crist (I) 33%, Kendrick Meek (D) 20%
FL-Sen: Charlie Crist (I) 36%, Marco Rubio (R) 34%, Jeff Greene (D) 19%
GA-Gov: Nathan Deal (R) 49%, Roy Barnes (D) 43%
GA-Gov: Karen Handel (R) 45%, Roy Barnes (D) 44%
NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 58%, Carl Paladino (R) 29%
NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 58%, Rick Lazio (R) 27%