The Wrap is being written, for what it is worth, by a guy wearing a parka at the moment. Because...seriously...when you have languished in 108-degree heat for five days, 75 degrees feels downright frosty.
Here is hoping that everyone has made it home from Netroots Nation 2010 in Vegas safely and happily. And for those who haven't had their political fill in the wake of that wondrous event, there is quite a bit to peruse in the Monday edition of the Wrap....
THE U.S. SENATE
IN-Sen: Indiana Dems tweak Coats for lobbyist past
While the Wrap will not cover every new ad that gets launched this cycle, I am enough of a sucker for parody ads that this one made the cut. The Indiana Democratic Party gives a good-natured smack to Republican nominee Dan Coats (a former Senator and lobbyist) by going through his lobbying greatest hits by riffing off of the famous "priceless" MasterCard commercials. Worth a watch, to be sure.
KS-Sen: Moran's former campaign head kisses Tiahrt, tells on Moran
Paul Moore used to be the campaign manager for Senate candidate Jerry Moran. He has now endorsed Moran's opponent, Congressman Todd Tiahrt. That, in itself, is interesting. But it gets more interesting when you see what Moore is saying about Moran. Moore complains in an AP article that Moran "winced" at being referred to as a conservative, fearful of alienating pro-choice moderates in a state whose rivalry between mods and cons is the stuff of legend. That is probably not the story Moran wants to see with eight days remaining in his primary.
LA-Sen: Vitter internal claims enormous primary edge
The Vitter/NRSC internal poll giving him a big lead over Charlie Melancon was posted on the Wrap this weekend, but SSP's Crisitunity caught another data point of note in that internal. The poll gives Vitter a dominant edge in the Republican primary: Vitter polls at 76%, with former judge Chet Traylor at 5% and former Indie House candidate Nick Accardo at 2%.
NH-Sen: Palin becoming Paul Hodes' best asset, according to PPP
Tom Jensen from PPP is a master poll-tease. Today, he hinted at the results his crew will release tomorrow in the New Hampshire Senate race. From the looks of things, the Sarah Palin endorsement of Attorney General Kelly Ayotte had divergent impacts on the landscape in the Granite State. Jensen teases that the tip of the cap from Mama Grizzly has made Ayotte more popular than ever among GOP primary voters, but less popular than ever among the general electorate. Expect Ayotte's edge over Hodes to be smaller than ever when the poll is released tomorrow.
SC-Sen: Alvin Greene...Superstar
This is a pretty unbelievable statistic: according to Yahoo's Michael Calderone, the candidate who received more media coverage than any other 2010 candidate is...Alvin Greene, the accidental Senate nominee from South Carolina. Greene tops the chart, followed by Nikki Haley, Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina. In fairness to the American press, however, this study by Pew only included media coverage from June 8th (the primary day for South Carolina) through July 18th.
WI-Sen: Ron Johnson hates the President, loves BP
Two separate news items from the weekend paint a pretty ugly picture of likely GOP Senate nominee Ron Johnson. The first one came during the weekend, when Johnson sat mute while a campaign town hall guest ripped President Obama as a "criminal" and an "American-hater." When asked if he agreed with that sentiment, Johnson stammered a bit, saying "I am not going to argue with...arm wrestle you about it." On Monday, Johnson revealed something he can stand for--profitting from BP. After saying two weeks ago he was going to dump his BP stock, Johnson is now saying that he has not made a final decision. Either way, he is a pretty bad guy. Either he sells the stock and pays for his campaign with BP's blood on his hands, or he keeps the stocks and advocates on their behalf, because he personally stands to gain from their success.
THE U.S. HOUSE
MN-06: Clark claims major endorsement for general election
Law enforcement will apparently have the back of Democratic House contender (and NN10 attendee) Tarryl Clark. The MPPOA, the largest police union in the state, has endorsed Clark over incumbent Republican Michele Bachmann. The union has endorsed Republicans in the past (including Norm Coleman in 2008), but has never endorsed Bachmann in her three bids for the House.
NE-02: Terry told to keep partying ways to a minimum
This is delicious, especially for a candidate in the Heartland. Both Roll Call and the New York Post ran stories today highlighting the renewed efforts of Minority Leader John Boehner to keep his caucus out of trouble amid a wave of frat-like behavior, particularly with female lobbyists. The best nugget from the stories, however, is the actions of one Lee Terry, who is locked into a potentially competitive battle with Democrat Tom White. Check out this little excerpt from one of the Post's reporters:
GOP Rep. Lee Terry of Nebraska -- who's in a tough race against Democratic opponent Tom White -- was witnessed by Page Six in close conversation with a comely lobbyist at the Capitol Hill Club in DC recently.
"Why did you get me so drunk?" Terry asked the giggling woman, among other personal remarks.
When Terry realized he was sitting near a reporter, he quickly changed the topic of conversation to his three children and the struggle to pay their college tuition.
Terry was given a 100 percent rating by the Christian Coalition for his pro-family voting record.
NM-01: Dueling polls paint very different pictures of race
Depending on who you believe, either Democrat Martin Heinrich has a double-digit lead in his re-election bid with Jon Barela, or he is trailing him. Those are the split verdicts from a pair of polls that came to light today. KOB's poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, had Barela out in front of Henrich by a 51-45 margin. This shows a bit of consistency for SUSA, who has been bearish on Democratic prospects virtually across the board. Heinrich's campaign immediately countered with a poll from GQR (a Democratic pollster, but one that has been pretty even-handed in the past). They polled about two weeks ago, and had Heinrich leading Barela by a dozen points (53-41).
PA-03: Kelly internal poll claims double digit lead over Dem freshman
This is an internal poll with a fairly small sample size, so use more salt than what would normally be prescribed for an internal. That said, a new Tarrance poll conducted for Republican challenger Mike Kelly has the Republican staked to an eleven-point edge over Democratic incumbent Kathy Dahlkemper (48-37). The poll claims a surprisingly high level of name recognition (67%) for Kelly.
RI-01: Progressive upstart nabs major endorsement
He might not be the leading fundraiser in the Democratic field, but progressive candidate (and NN10 attendee) David Segal claimed a big endorsement in his bid to topple better-funded candidates like Providence Mayor Kevin Cicilline and former state party chair William Lynch. Segal, a state legislator, earned the endorsement of the state teachers union. The union is on an endorsement kick, having given Lincoln Chafee their nod late last week.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
GA-Gov: Deal internal poll claims a toss-up in runoff
It is still a couple of weeks until the gubernatorial runoff for the GOP in the Peach State, and last week's primary runner-up has a new poll out claiming that it is a coin flip (PDF file). The poll, taken for former Congressman Nathan Deal by McLaughlin, claims a one-point lead for Deal over primary frontrunner Karen Handel (39-38). The winner of the Handel-Deal runoff will battle with former Democratic Governor Roy Barnes in November.
KY-Gov (2011): Former Rand Paul manager teasing '11 ticket reveal
By the end of the week, we will know why former Rand Paul campaign manager David Adams parachuted out of the Paul campaign. A tweet from local political site Bluegrass Politics claims that Adams will unveil a candidate for the 2011 gubernatorial race. The GOP will be challenging incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Beshear, and Adams claims that the candidate he will be working with will have Tea Party support.
OK-Gov: General more competitive than primaries, according to new poll
There was some seriously interesting polling data emerging from the Sooner State over the weekend. Apparently, tomorrow's primaries are not going to be terribly competitive. As expected, Congresswoman Mary Fallin is cleaning house on the GOP side, with a 56-18 lead over state legislator Randy Brogdon. However, the Democratic side was expected to be a bit more competitive than it apparently will be: Attorney General Drew Edmondson has a 49-33 lead over Lt. Governor Jari Askins. Even more interesting, however, is that the general election is considerably closer than most folks would have wagered. Fallin leads Askins by just six points (46-40) and Edmondson by just eight points (47-39). Despite the deep-red profile of Oklahoma, this would be a pickup for the GOP, as Fallin would replace term-limited Democrat Brad Henry.
TN-Gov: Haslam has sizeable primary and general elex leads, says M-D
With about a week to go until their primary elections, Mason Dixon has waded into Tennessee, and they see good news for the uber-wealthy mayor of Knoxville, Republican Bill Haslam. The Mason Dixon poll has Haslam leading Congressman Zach Wamp by eleven points (36-25), with Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey trailing with 20% of the vote. Haslam also has a sizeable lead (49-31) over the sole Democrat in the running, Mike McWherter. All three Republicans hold leads over McWherter, although both Wamp (45-38) and Ramsey (43-38) are considerably weaker than Haslam.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
The House of Ras goes from the desert to the prairies to the sea with their trio of polling results. None of them would qualify as a surprise, though, as the continued rule of incumbents and quasi-incumbents carries the day. This is good news for two Republicans (Senator John McCain and Governor-turned-Senate candidate John Hoeven) and one Democrat (Governor Deval Patrick).
AZ-Sen (R): Sen. John McCain 54%, J.D. Hayworth 34%
MA-Gov: Gov. Deval Patrick (D) 38%, Charlie Baker (R) 34%, Tim Cahill (I) 17%
ND-Sen: John Hoeven (R) 69%, Tracy Potter (D) 22%