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Open Thread and Diary Rescue

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 08:30:05 PM PDT

Tonight's Rescue Rangers are Louisiana 1976, ybruti, grog, HoosierDeb, pico, and sunspark says, with Alfonso Nevarez editing.

Salutations!

jotter analyzes High Impact Diaries: July 26, 2010.

brillig gathers the Top Comments.

If you've read a terrific, radiant, or humble diary today, or any diary ever written about a great pig, please do link to it in a comment below the fold.


Polling and Political Wrap, 7/27/10

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 08:00:05 PM PDT

On this day in 1988, the world of competitive sports lost an innovator who forever changed one of the most celebrated of winter sports.

Anyone who has ever sat in an arena in the wintertime, bored out of your mind between periods of a hockey game, owes a grand debt to this man for his brilliant piece of machinery. With that in mind, the Wrap gives a posthumous tip of the hat to none other than Frank Zamboni. Good on you, Frank.

With that, it's back to the world of politics, where the Wrap is filled to capacity. The headlines are fast and furious on this Tuesday: internal polls abound, Willie Herenton is still an ass (but his schtick ain't working), and Tom Emmer is still not very smart.

All that (and more!) in the Tuesday edition of the Wrap....

THE U.S. SENATE

CO-Sen: Romanoff goes all-in, while Norton tweaks Buck
Two headlines out of Colorado today: one of them was utterly predictable, while the other one is a pretty big shocker. The shocker is the all-in level of commitment were are seeing from Democratic challenger Andrew Romanoff, who has sold his house to finance the final month of his primary challenge to appointed incumbent Michael Bennet. The sale netted the challenger $325K, which he directed to his campaign. On the more predictable campaign tactical front, Jane Norton has decided to exploit the opening led by Ken Buck with his recorded smackdown of the "dumbasses" in the Tea Party. Even in defending the teabaggers, though, Norton probably crapped the bed with those folks. While she defended the teabaggers' right to their birtherism, she also said that she did not share it, saying that Hawaii has settled the issue, and that she thinks Obama is a citizen.

That trampling sound you hear is the teabagger set running back to Ken Buck.

IL-Sen: Special election decree could shake up Senate race
It's not a lock just yet, but it is now exceedingly likely that a federal judge will order a special election in Illinois to coincide with the regularly scheduled federal election this November. While it is unlikely to change the cast of characters (the parties will almost certainly get to appoint the special election nominees, and just as certainly will give the nominations to their already-elected nominees), it does have two key impacts to consider. For one, it would appear that will give whomever emerges from the race a leg up on seniority. For another, it could have a real fundraising impact, as both Alexi Giannoulias and Mark Kirk could then go back to their maxed-out donors, since there are now two elections instead of one.

KY-Sen: Conway leaps on opportunity, dings Paul on ADA anniversary
In a pretty clever campaign gambit, Democratic contender Jack Conway managed to tie together Rand Paul's generic batshit craziness with the high-profile big-bucks fundraiser that Paul is having with former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. In a speech celebrating the 20th anniversary of the Americans with Disabilities Act, Conway noted that the landmark bill was signed by George H.W. Bush. He noted that sad irony that Bush's son would assist a candidate (Paul) who was on the record opposing certain aspects of the A.D.A. The Conway campaign also released late last week internal polling which showed the Democrat dead-even with the GOP standard bearer, and leading him easily among those folks who know both candidates.

NC-Sen: Civitas poll gives Burr narrow lead over Marshall
When a nominally GOP pollster puts the GOP incumbent well under 50%, and only up by six points, that has to be seen as a fairly optimistic sign for the challenger. The Civitas poll released today gives incumbent Republican Richard Burr a lead of 44-38 over Democrat Elaine Marshall, with Libertarian Michael Beitler down at 3% of the vote. Two items to note: among those who are certain of their preference, the margin gets cut down to four points (32-28). Furthermore, Marshall also seems to have some upside, with half of the voters still unsure of whether or not they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her. Marshall's campaign released an internal poll last week showing her up on Burr by a 37-35 margin.

OK-Sen: Primary day in the Sooner State
Oklahomans wrapped up a pair of primaries tonight to determine their U.S. Senate candidates for the Fall. Neither primary received a lot of attention, if for no other reason than the strong supposition that the Senate race will be totally uncompetitive in the Fall. There were a pair of GOP challengers challenging incumbent Tom Coburn (who nevertheless won with 90% of the vote), while the Democratic primary voters chose retiree Jim Rogers over attorney Mark Myles. Rogers, a perennial candidate, is not considered to be a serious contender for November.

THE U.S. HOUSE

ID-01: Minnick second Democrat to call for Rangel ouster
Less than three days after Ohio Congresswoman Betty Sutton became the first Democrat to call for embattled New York veteran Rep. Charlie Rangel to step down, another high-profile Democrat has followed suit. Walt Minnick, the freshman Democrat who represents one of the reddest districts in the nation, has called for Rangel to step down. Saying he originally was willing to let the voters of the New York 15th district make the decision, Minnick now says the proponderance of the evidence makes it "clear" that Rangel should go. Given Minnick's location of most target lists, it is fair to wonder if his call will start a dam break of vulnerable Democrats.

IL-17: GOP contender claims double-digit lead in an internal poll
You might recall a couple of months ago when some GOPers openly talked about gains in the 100 seat range. It seemed absurd at the time, but if internal polls like this one are legit (an open question, of course), those lofty projections might just be legit. A poll by Magellan for little-known GOP contender Bobby Schilling claims that he has a thirteen-point edge (45-32) over sophomore incumbent Democrat Phil Hare.

MN-03: GOP freshman leads by 22...in Democratic internal poll
Add this to the list of curious releases of internal polling data. A new poll for Democratic challenger Jim Meffert shows incumbent Erik Paulsen staked to an early 44-22 lead over the challenger. The Independence Party candidate snagged 7% of the vote. I suppose that the goal there was to show Paulsen under 50%, but that impact is muted somewhat by showing Meffert under 25%, one would think.

OK-01/OK-02/OK-05: Voters pick House nominees
Three of the Sooner State's five Congressional districts headed to the polls today to pick their nominees for the Fall. In OK-01, incumbent John Sullivan was forced to battle with five Republican challengers. Sullivan won with a less-than-impressive 63% of the vote. He is secure for November, however, as only a Libertarian challenger awaits in the Fall. In OK-02, Democratic state legislator Jim Wilson made a late decision to primary ConservaDem Dan Boren. Perhaps as a result of his late start, he came up well short against Boren, who drew 76% of the vote. Meanwhile, we will have to wait four weeks for Boren's Republican challenger, as the multi-candidate GOP field resulted in a runoff election. A runoff is also in order in OK-05, where Mary Fallin left to run for Governor.

TN-09: Herenton plays race card (again), but CBC doesn't bite
It would have been very difficult to run a more repugnant campaign than the one Nikki Tinker threw at Steve Cohen two years ago. But, quite clearly, former Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton is doing his damnedest. Herenton is invoking race repeatedly in his battle with Cohen, one of a small handful of white Congressmen representing majority-black districts. He referred to voters needing to "come off of that Cohen plantation." He also repeated, for about the tenth time, the necessity for Tennessee to have "just one" black member of Congress. One prominent group that isn't buying Herenton's schtick is the Congressional Black Caucus. The group endorsed Cohen yesterday. This is a departure for the caucus, which offered financial assistance to Tinker in her bid against Cohen in 2008.

WI-03: GOP internal poll keeps Dem Kind in lead, but modestly
Unlike the eye-popping Illinois internal poll, an internal poll out of Wisconsin gives the Republican challenger respectable numbers, but keeps a longtime Democratic incumbent out in front of the field. The poll shows seventh-term Democratic incumbent Ron Kind leading with 44% of the vote, ahead of Republican Dan Kapanke (38%) and Libertarian Michaek Krsiean (6%). Interesting dichotomy from the poll--the poll has Barack Obama at a middling 48% approval rating, but has a nine-point generic lead for a GOP candidate.

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: The DCCC ad blitz (wave #1) is revealed
The guys over at Swing State Project has the complete list of 41 districts that the DCCC have reserved air time for this Fall. SSP has helpfully put the districts in a sortable table, with designations of the margin of victory in the House in 2008, as well as Barack Obama's percentages in each district. Two caveats--this is the first wave, and not an exhaustive list. I'd expect the Democrats to also play some offense, and I'd expect to see some other districts get some attention. Furthermore, reserving time doesn't mean said time will be used. If Raul Labrador continues to lag behind Walt Minnick, for example, that cash in ID-01 can be redirected elsewhere.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

FL-Gov: McCollum down six...in his own internal polling
Just like with Arkansas Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln last week, let's use the latest poll release by Florida gubernatorial candidate Bill McCollum to review a simple rule--it is rarely a good thing for a candidate to release an internal poll that shows said candidate getting beat. Yet that is exactly what McCollum has done--he released a poll by McLaughlin and Associates showing him trailing bazillionaire Rick Scott by a 37-31 margin. Apparently, McCollum felt the need to sell two memes: 1) there are a ton of undecideds left in the race and 2) he is not down by as much as some folks might fear.

MD-Gov: Public poll gives Dem incumbent slight lead in rematch
In Maryland, the rematch of the 2006 battle between current Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley and former Republican Governor Robert Ehrlich is pretty damned close to a coin flip, according to a local pollster. The poll, by Gonzales Research, has the Democrat O'Malley up three points (45-42) over Ehrlich. President Obama's approval ratings have slid even in blue Maryland--the Gonzales poll had the President at a 51% approval rating.

MI-Gov: Is Bouchard the sleeper candidate on the GOP side?
Virtually all of the attention in Michigan is on the triumvirate of Mike Cox, Peter Hoekstra, and Rick Snyder, but Hotline On Call's Dan Roem is betting on a longshot in that primary. He is betting on Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard. Roem's rationales are solid: not only does Bouchard have more cash to blow in the final week of the campaign than anyone else in the field, he has been courting the uber-activist (some might say "batshit crazy") vote, with the endorsements of luminaries such as Ted Nugent, Joe Arpaio, and Samuel Joe the Plumber.

In other Michigan gov news, Attorney General Mike Cox is fending off a new allegation, and a salacious one, at that. An eyewitness, who claimed he worked security at a long-rumored wild party thrown by Kwame Kilpatrick in 2002 in Manoogian Mansion, is now alleging that not only was Mike Cox a guest at the party, he was the recipient of a lap dance from one of the cadre of exotic dancers hired to work to the party. Cox, for his part, vehemently denies the allegation, and it is worth noting that the accuser in question does have three criminal convictions on his record over the past 14 years.

MN-Gov: Tom Emmer is evidently not a smart man
This has to be one of the clubhouse leaders in the contest for most absurd campaign statements of the 2010 cycle. Trying to appeal to a crowd of veterans at a campaign stop, GOP nominee Tom Emmer called for a Minnesota GI Bill which would provide higher education assistance to the families of fallen soldiers. Strike one: he was calling for a piece of legislation that has already been law for three years. Strike two: Emmer voted against it in the state legislature. Emmer memorably attributed the flub to "bad staff work".

OK-Gov: It's Fallin vs. ????? in November
As polls prior to today's primary essentially predicted, Congresswoman Mary Fallin cruised to a reasonably easy victory on the GOP side. Fallin easily outpaced state legislator Randy Brogdon (57-37). The real drama, however, is on the Democratic side, where state Lt. Governor Jari Askins is leading narrowly in an upset over Attorney General Drew Edmondson. With nearly 90% of the vote tabulated, Askins is up by a pair of points (51-49) over Edmondson, but roughly half of the precincts in Edmondson's stronghold of Tulsa County are still outstanding.

TX-Gov: Perry hemmorhaging support from border sheriffs
Interesting catch this morning from the Houston Chronicle, which noted that Democrat Bill White has snagged a number of county sheriffs from along the Texas-Mexican border. In 2006, Perry swept the endorsements of the border sheriffs. This time around, White looks to have claimed support from the majority of sheriffs. The only dispute, at this point, appears to be whether it is eight or nine of the 15 sheriffs along the border. At issue, as would be expected, appears to be law enforcement funding.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA

Pretty quiet day for the House of Ras. They look at the all-important U.S. Senate race in Alabama (while holding onto the one result, the gubernatorial race, that we might actually care about). They also look at the Democratic U.S. Senate primary in Arizona, and they give the GOP continued high marks in Colorado at the Senate level (which strains belief a bit, given their recent troubles).

AL-Sen: Sen. Richard Shelby (R) 59%, William Barnes (D) 29%
AZ-Sen (D): Rodney Glassman 15%, Cathy Eden 11%, Randy Parraz 10%, John Dougherty 7%
CO-Sen: Jane Norton (R) 48%, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 39%
CO-Sen: Jane Norton (R) 44%, Andrew Romanoff (D) 40%
CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) 48%, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 42%
CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) 48%, Andrew Romanoff (D) 42%
OR-Gov: Chris Dudley (R) 47%, John Kitzhaber (D) 44%

Race tracker wiki: AL-Sen AZ-Sen CO-Sen IL-Sen KY-Sen OK-Sen ID-01 IL-17 MN-03 OK-01 OK-02 OK-05 TN-09 WI-03 FL-Gov MD-Gov MI-Gov MN-Gov OK-Gov TX-Gov

Bush DoD lost $8,700,000,000 in Iraqi oil revenue

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 07:36:05 PM PDT

Not that the Bush-Cheney war on Iraq was about stealing Iraqi oil assets or anything. It's only a coincidence.

The Defense Department is unable to properly account for $8.7 billion out of $9.1 billion in Iraqi oil revenue entrusted to it between 2004 and 2007, according to a newly released audit that underscores a pattern of poor record-keeping during the war.

Of that amount, the military failed to provide any records at all for $2.6 billion in purported reconstruction expenditure, says the report by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, which is responsible for monitoring U.S. spending in Iraq. The rest of the money was not properly deposited in special accounts as required under Treasury Department rules, making it difficult to trace how it was spent.

Though there is no apparent evidence of fraud, the improper accounting practices add to the pattern of mismanagement, reckless spending and, in some instances, corruption uncovered by the agency since 2004, when it was created to oversee the total of $53 billion in U.S. taxpayer money appropriated by Congress for the reconstruction effort.

No apparent evidence of fraud? Simple accounting errors?

First, let's look at those numbers in the proper context. With lots of zeros. $8,700,000,000. Out of $9,100,000,000. Missing. Gone. Poof.

Now, let's do the math. $8,700,000,000 divided by $9,100,000,000. That comes to 0.9560. Or 95.6%. Missing. Of the Iraqi oil revenue entrusted to the Defense Department between 2004 and 2007. Which would be during the Bush-Cheney administration. Which would be mostly during the tenure of Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense.

$8,700,000,000.

95.6%.

Unaccounted for. Gone. Missing. Poof. Like magic.

Remember when Paul Wolfowitz said Iraqi oil revenue could finance Iraq's reconstruction? He was just a little off, on that. And it doesn't make it any easier when 95.6% of the oil revenue just vanishes without a trace. Like magic.

The Iraqis are not happy. Even Republicans should be able to understand why the Iraqis are not happy. Not that the invasion and occupation and devastation of Iraq was about stealing their oil assets or anything.

TN-Gov: GOP Lt. Gov. opposes First Amendment for Muslim-Americans

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 07:00:05 PM PDT

Talk about ironic: Tennessee Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey, running for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, says he doesn't support religious freedom for Muslims...because he doesn't want to live under "Sharia Law."

At a recent event in Hamilton County, Ramsey was asked by a man in the audience about the "threat that's invading our country from the Muslims." Ramsey proclaimed his support for the Constitution and the whole "Congress shall make no law" thing when it comes to religion. But he also said that Islam, arguably, is less a faith than it is a "cult."

...

"Now, you know, I'm all about freedom of religion. I value the First Amendment as much as I value the Second Amendment as much as I value the Tenth Amendment and on and on and on," he said. "But you cross the line when they try to start bringing Sharia Law here to the state of Tennessee -- to the United States. We live under our Constitution and they live under our Constitution."

That sounds about as rational as arguing that women should be forced to cover their bodies from head to toe to protect them from being forced to wear a burqa. I mean, the whole point of the First Amendment is that not only does it prohibit discrimination against all religions, including Islam, but it also prohibits the imposition of a theocracy, whether rooted in Sharia Law or the religious extremism of American Taliban figures like Ramsey.

Ramsey trails Rep. Zach Wamp in the nomination battle, but before you start wondering whether Ramsey's little burst of extremism might give his campaign renewed hope, Wamp may still have the edge on Ramsey when it comes to conservative lunacy: Wamp says that if health care reform isn't repealed, Tennessee ought to secede from the United States of America. I guess Ramsey ought to get behind Wamp's proposal, because if that happens, they won't have the First Amendment -- or any of the others -- to worry about anymore.

Race tracker wiki: TN-Gov

Open Thread

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 06:48:01 PM PDT

Jabber your jibber.

Lord: Screws had legal authority to murder Hall

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 06:20:04 PM PDT

You know you're in trouble when this is how you begin an explanation of why you were right:

Random House Webster's College Dictionary defines...

At issue: Jeffrey Lord's self-defense from criticism by fellow conservatives of his claim that Shirley Sherrod was a liar because she described the brutal slaying of her relative Bobby Hall by Sheriff Claude Screws as a "lynching."

Lord tries to argue that the murder couldn't have been a lynching because the dictionary's definition of lynching reads: "to put to death, esp. hanging by mob action and without legal authority." He argues in part that Screws was not part of a mob. Given that Screws was one of a gang of three murderers, Lord's argument is absurd, especially because the definition he cites does not require mob action nor does it require hanging, but it gets worse. Lord also argues that because the Supreme Court -- on narrow, technical grounds -- overturned Screws' conviction of violating Hall's civil rights, that Screws did in fact have legal authority to murder Hall.

Second, the Supreme Court specifically said the Sheriff and his deputy and a local policeman acted "under color of law." Which means they had legal authority.

Of course, there's always the fact that the State of Georgia refused to indict Screws for homicide, even though everybody knew he'd killed Bobby Hall in cold blood. I guess in Lord's strange little world, this means Screws had the proper legal authority to murder Bobby Hall. But that tells you more about what's inside Lord's mind than it does anything else.

BP will take $9.9 billion tax credit as revenues soar

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 05:52:04 PM PDT

BP announced its second quarter earnings, and news reports are focusing on the oil giant's record loss, as its disastrous oil gusher continues to poison the Gulf of Mexico. Curiously, it takes some digging to find anyone willing to mention that BP's revenues actually soared, last quarter. The Irish Times made such an effort:

BP’s underlying performance, excluding the spill, was strong in the second quarter, with profits of $5 billion and operating cash flow of $8.9 billion, up 31 per cent from the equivalent period of 2009.

BP is doing just fine. It will sell some assets to help cover the short term loss, and it also has other clever plans. For example, in case you were wondering how it will find the cash to put into its oil gusher escrow fund (assuming BP ever does actually put cash into it), you need not worry. Marketwatch explains that BP will take a $32 billion charge against earnings, due in part to the oil spill--which means it will get a $9.9 billion tax credit.

$9,900,000,000.

Nice round number, that. Wonder how BP came up with it. But it is a bit reminiscent of retail prices that always end in 99 cents, rather than rounding up to the next digit, which always looks worse. Because $9.9 billion rounds up to $10 billion, which is exactly half the amount BP promised to put into that escrow fund that it thus far hasn't funded.

"We have followed the IRS regulations as they're currently written," outgoing BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward said in a conference call.

Indeed. Hayward was brilliant at following the rules. He is a master of his industry. He shouldn't have been fired, he should have been bronzed.

Meanwhile, in case you were worried about BP investors, such as Wisconsin Republican Senate candidate Ron Johnson, you also can rest assured. The stock took a hit in the U.S., today, but it's been doing well of late, and even rose in anticipation of the earnings report.

CA-LtGov: Republicans hate taxes, so they don't pay them

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 05:26:04 PM PDT

There are few things worse for a politician than an unpaid tax lien, especially in a state like California where our perennial budget crisis makes it even more important for our politicians to demonstrate their commitment to paying their fair share.

Enter Lieutenant Governor Abel Maldonado, who was appointed by Governor Schwarzenegger to the position after John Garamendi won the special election created by the appointment of Ellen Tauscher to the position of Undersecretary for Arms Control.

According to the Los Angeles Times, Abel Maldonado has had a substantial tax lien placed on his family farm:

The single-page IRS lien indicates that Maldonado owes the government $111,146 for underpaying a category of taxes that include Social Security, Medicare and federal withholding contributions for employees on his 6,000-acre farm in Santa Barbara County.

An IRS spokesman declined to comment on the ongoing case.

Maldonado's people claim that this lien actually arises from a dispute about whether certain vehicles are for public or private use. But as someone who has administrated tax payments for small businesses, this seems like a strange defense: the category of taxes that the IRS is claiming that Maldonado owes are "form 941" taxes, which withhold income taxes, social security taxes and Medicare taxes from employee paychecks. It is possible for this form 941 withholding lien to be the result of a dispute over whether a vehicle is for personal or business use, as the IRS explains in its employer's guide:

You may choose not to withhold income tax on the value of an employee's personal use of a vehicle you provide. You must, however, withhold social security and Medicare taxes on the use of the vehicle. See Publication 15-B for more information on this election.

So this is apparently what this dispute is about. But even if we grant Maldonado the benefit of the doubt here, there's a much larger problem: the tax lien is over $111,000. Do you realize how much the IRS would have to have been estimating the value of the "company vehicle use" he had been engaging in to rack up a tax bill that high? Simple mathematics based on the applicable tax rates would indicate that the total valuation of the "vehicle use" would have to have been in the high six figures, which is unconscionable in and of itself.

Bottom line is, Maldonado has some explaining to do. And it's not even the first time:

It is the ninth time since 1992 that federal, state or local tax collectors have resorted to liens against the Santa Maria Republican's family farm in an effort to compel payments totaling more than $240,000, public records show.

For Lieutenant Governor, California has a much better choice in San Francisco mayor and marriage equality hero Gavin Newsom.

Race tracker wiki: CA-LTGOV

Large majorities oppose extending Bush tax cuts

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 04:52:04 PM PDT

Looks like deficit peacocks Kent Conrad and Ben Nelson are out there by their lonesomes (well, they have Republican members of Congress on his side) in calling for extending the Bush tax cuts.

The White House says let them expire. Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer say let them expire.

According to the latest Society for Human Resource Management/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, the American people say so, too.

30 percent of Americans believe all of Bush's 2001 and 2003 cuts should stay in place. That compared to 31 percent who believed that all of them should be repealed. Twenty-seven percent take the route Obama campaigned on: Tax cuts for the wealthy should be repealed, while the others should stay in place. [. . .] Independents hewed closest to the overall sample. Twenty-seven percent said all the tax cuts should be kept in place. Thirty-two percent said they all should be repealed. Twenty-seven percent said the tax cuts for the wealthy should be repealed, but the middle class cuts should be kept in place.

Even 40 percent of Republicans say they should be allowed to expire--19 percent say repeal them just for the wealthy, and 21 percent for everyone. That suggests that 40 percent of Republicans, who have been hearing the deficit hysteria since Barack Obama took office, are smarter than your average congressional Republican or deficit peacock. They understand the connection between tax cuts for the wealthy and the deficit.

Republicans want to make this a key fight in the midterm. Sounds like a really good idea, when you look at that polling. Provided that the ConservaDem deficit peacocks get on the same page with the majority of their colleagues, Obama, and the American people.

Late afternoon/early evening open thread

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 04:18:05 PM PDT

Funny or Die presents Tim Geithner's secret thoughts on Elizabeth Warren:

War supplemental bulldozes to passage

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 03:48:04 PM PDT

The Senate version of the supplemental appropriations bill, including $37 billion for the continuation of the war in Afghanistan, has been passed by the House, by a vote of 308-114. The line in the sand drawn by retiring Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey (D-WI-07) has been utterly obliterated, and there can be no doubt but that there is a remains a very large pro-war majority in the Congress. This despite stories which ran claims like this one, just three weeks ago:

If you asked the House of Representatives right now to approve $37 billion to continue the war in Afghanistan indefinitely without a plan in place for winding it down, the answer would be “no.” But through some carefully considered procedural maneuvering last night, Democratic leaders in the House managed to pass their war spending bill, reject attempts at setting a withdrawal timeline, enact a broad budget enforcement resolution that will guide all discretionary spending for 2011, and even throw in billions of dollars (fully offset) in unrelated domestic spending.

Today, the answer is a resounding "yes," and this despite the fact that the product of that carefully considered procedural maneuvering has been systematically abandoned piece by piece until literally none of it remained.

The war continues. It gets more money than ever. And despite the promises made by everybody running everywhere for every seat in every branch of the federal government not to fund the wars through supplemental appropriations ever again, this is the second year in a row we've done just that. Last year perhaps didn't "count," since it was a supplemental for fiscal year 2009, for which the planning was done in 2008 (i.e., under the Bush administration), but there's no doubting who's responsible for fiscal year 2010. It is what it is.

In defense of the media

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 03:10:04 PM PDT

I never thought I'd write a post with this title, but Mark Halperin has driven me to it. Blaming the media-at-large for amplifying the Fox/Breitbart smears of Shirley Sherrod, he says:

The Sherrod story is a reminder — much like the 2004 assault on John Kerry by the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth — that the old media are often swayed by controversies pushed by the conservative new media. In many quarters of the old media, there is concern about not appearing liberally biased, so stories emanating from the right are given more weight and less scrutiny. Additionally, the conservative new media, particularly Fox News Channel and talk radio, are commercially successful, so the implicit logic followed by old-media decision makers is that if something is gaining currency in those precincts, it is a phenomenon that must be given attention. Most dangerously, conservative new media will often produce content that is so provocative and incendiary that the old media find it irresistible.

So the news-and-information conveyor belt moves stories like the Sherrod case from Point A to Point Z without any of the standards or norms of traditional journalism, not only resulting in grievous harm to the apparently blameless, such as Sherrod, but also crowding out news about virtually anything else. The endless obsession with the Simpson story was absurd and gluttonous, and the pattern has been reproduced countless times since (the death of Anna Nicole Smith, the Gary Condit–Chandra Levy mystery, the ongoing Rod Blagojevich soap opera), but the Sherrod story may be the low point of this phenomenon because of its illegitimate origins. Andrew Breitbart, a conservative firebrand with a record of selectively editing video for partisan advantage, used a misleading snippet to produce a chain reaction that embarrassed the old media, the NAACP and the President of the United States — all of which led to even more content generated, rehashed, debated and mulched.

At a time when the country faces real challenges, with major elections coming up in November, did the nation really want to spend a week on this? Presidential advisers, including Robert Gibbs and David Axelrod, who have earned virtual Ph.D.s in such political-media complexities, were on one level as seemingly powerless to stop the whole mess from spiraling out of control as were their predecessors in the Clinton and Bush White Houses. But the Obama Administration took the critical and alarming step of bowing to the expectations of the right and forcing Sherrod out of her job before completing even the most cursory investigation.

Gibbs and other officials publicly stopped short of saying it was all the media's fault, but they certainly suggested something very close to that. There is enough blame to go around. The new-media genie is not going back into the bottle; there are no easy solutions for how to end the dynamic unleashed by Orenthal James Simpson and his motley band of abettors, accusers, analysts and voyeurs. But all of us who are involved in politics and media should take a moment to recognize that we have hit a low point. And let all of us resolve that, having hit bottom, it is time to start climbing out of the pit.

Halperin is certainly correct to say the Sherrod smear originated with right-wing media, and he's also correct to describe her firing as "craven" as he does earlier in the article. But his central thesis -- that the Sherrod case represents a low-point for American media -- is sorely lacking.

The Sherrod smear began with Andrew Breitbart and quickly spread to Fox News. Based on Breitbart's video and Fox's relentless promotion of it, the NAACP's Ben Jealous tweeted his condemnation of Sherrod. By the end of the day on Monday, July 19, Sherrod had been sacked.

As best I can tell from searches on Nexis, neither CNN nor MSNBC covered the Sherrod story until she had been canned. CNN did a quick story on the fact that Vilsack had canned her, but didn't dwell on it. I saw nothing on MSNBC.

By Tuesday, however, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution had ripped apart Breitbart's smear and that morning Sherrod appeared on CNN (which is based in Atlanta) to debunk the smears. From there, MSNBC picked up the story, also exonerating Sherrod, as did newspapers and progressive blogs. That evening, each of the national news broadcasts aired stories pointing out that Sherrod had actually been telling a story of racial redemption. By Wednesday, excellent reporting by media outlets not named Fox had saved Sherrod's reputation, caused the administration to admit it had been wrong, and even forced Fox News to hilariously claim that it was the White House and the White House alone that had overreacted. (Pew's Project for Excellence in Journalism has posted a comprehensive timeline illustrating exactly how things unfolded.)

Obviously, in a perfect world, Breitbart and Fox never would have smeared Sherrod, but they did. And once they did, and once the USDA fired Sherrod, it became a big story. Sure, the media could have ignored it, but if they had ignored it, they'd have been lending their tacit approval to Fox's new brand of McCarthyism. I wish they hadn't been put in the position of needing to debunk Fox's lies, but they were. And from the AJC and CNN on down, they did a damn good job of it. It wasn't a low-point -- it was a high-point.

Republican voters want Bush economic policies

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 02:30:04 PM PDT

Check out these numbers (from Pew, conducted July 22-25):

Q: What do you think would do more to improve economic conditions in the country over the next few years?

Following economic policies of Obama administration:
All: 46% | Dem: 84% | Ind: 43% | GOP: 13%

Following economic policies of Bush administration:
All: 29% | Dem: 7% | Ind: 20% | GOP: 63%

So despite Democratic control of the White House and Congress during the worst economy since the Great Depression, most voters still have a clear preference for Democratic economic policies. Twelve times as many Democrats prefer Obama's economic policies than prefer Bush's and more than twice as many independents prefer Obama's economic policies than prefer Bush's. Only among Republicans are Bush's economic policies popular: 5 times as many of them support Bush's policies than support Obama's.

Despite these numbers, there's no question that Democrats have a huge challenge to face this November. But here's the point, revealed by these numbers: Republicans have serious political problems as well. Most Americans may think the country is headed in the wrong direction, but given the choice, they'd rather follow President Obama's policies than go back to the Bush-Republican prescription for the economy. The GOP has yet to show they can overcome this hurdle.

Interestingly, even though Republicans favor Bush's economic policies, a sizable chunk of them -- 40% -- would like to at the very least let the tax cuts for the wealthy expire. Indeed, while 52% of them support extending all the tax cuts permanently, 21% of them believe all the tax cuts should be canceled. That suggests that at least among some Republicans, the rhetoric of fiscal responsibility has come home to roost. So we now have a GOP that pretty much uniformly doesn't support any sort of government action to strengthen the economy, but a significant faction of the party also supports fiscal austerity in the form of across-the-board tax increases and nearly half the party supports at least increasing taxes on the wealthy.

Hopefully, numbers like these will remind Democrats that the real challenge in 2010 isn't to blur the distinction between themselves and the GOP because the last thing people want are GOP economic policies. Republicans might want Bushonomics, but just about everybody else wants to see aggressive government action to get this economy back into shape.

White pride group urges Tea Party to be honest about its racism

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 01:56:04 PM PDT

Remember the Council of Conservative Citizens? They were Trent Lott's buddies back in the day, and are a modern-era, suit-and-tie version of the KKK ("CCC" ... get it?). The Anti-Defamation League has more info on those racists here.

In any case, those guys aren't happy that the Tea Party has run away from the racist label after the recent NAACP dustup.

This was a great opportunity for the Tea Party movement to show some backbone by laughing in the face of the imbeciles at the NAACP. But did they? Of course not. Predictably, they responded in the same tired, pusillanimous manner with which they always respond to these never ending accusations. Instead of replying with a loud BWAHAHAHA! or a “Yeah? What’s your point?” or “So what?” or “Of course we’re racists -we’re white people.

That’s what “racist” means or “Can any of you race hustlers even spell “racist”?”, they predictably went into their usual bend over and grab their ankles mode. They protested that oh no, we’re not racists at all, we don’t tolerate racists at our rallies which are really huge rainbow coalitions, and it’s the NAACP and the liberals who are the real racists, etc., etc. You know, the lame “Bull Connor was a Democrat!” defense. It never works, but they just keep trotting it out like some lucky charm in the vain hope that this time it will work.

Racist means white person. Period. Until the Tea Partiers get that through their heads, nothing’s going to change, and they’re never going to be an effective political force.

All they're asking for is some honesty! Here is Dale Robertson, founder of the Tea Party:

It's easy to see why those modern KKK clones are frustrated.

Via the Miami Times.

CA-Sen: Boxer pulls into clear lead over Fiorina

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 01:22:04 PM PDT

Public Policy Polling (PDF). July 23-25. Registered voters. MoE 3.95%

The candidates for U.S. Senate are Republican Carly Fiorina and Democrat Barbara Boxer. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Barbara Boxer (D) 49
Carly Fiorina (R) 40
Undecided 11

This may well prove to be another in an ever-expanding series of races where voters are not sold on the Democratic incumbent, but grudgingly stick with them because the Republican nominee fails to be seen as a legitimate alternative. While Senator Boxer's job approval numbers are middling at best (44-46), they are light years ahead of GOP nominee Carly Fiorina. The Republican millionaire businesswoman heads into the heat of the general election campaign with voters already holding a generally unfavorable opinion of the candidate: Fiorina has just 28 percent favorability, with 40 percent already holding an unfavorable view of her.

President Obama also maintains decent approval ratings in the Golden State (54 percent), which means that Fiorina might not be able to connect with the anti-Obama appeals being used by so many Republican candidates from coast to coast.

Boxer can also take solace in the fact that the ideological breakdowns of this poll seem to favor her continued command of this race. Boxer's huge lead among liberals (81-10) is pretty predictable, but the punditocracy should also note that Boxer is cleaning Fiorina's clock among moderate voters (57-30). Sure, Fiorina is destroying Boxer among conservatives (75-15), but this is California--there aren't enough conservatives for her to make up the gap.

There are also signs in this poll that, at least in California, the "enthusiasm gap" might well be narrowing. The sample polled by PPP was not far off of the 2008 electorate, both in terms of the presidential vote and the partisan ID breakdown. Obama carried the state by 25 points in 2008, and this polling sample favored the President over McCain by a 22-point margin. This implies a more Republican electorate, but only incrementally so.

Eyes will now turn, later in the week, to PPP's numbers in the gubernatorial race. While Fiorina has filled her own coffers in order to forge a viable campaign, she has paled in comparison to the record-setting avalanche of self-funding from GOP gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman. It will be intriguing to see where PPP puts the battle between Whitman and Democratic nominee Jerry Brown.

Race tracker wiki: CA-Sen

OR-Gov: Swing State moves race to "tossup"

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 12:42:43 PM PDT

This shouldn't happen. Former Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber should be running away with this race against not-even-very-good former NBA player Chris Dudley. No way should this one be a "tossup."

Carla Axtman at BlueOregon reacts.

I bumped into DavidNYC, JamesL and Crisitunity during last week's Netroots Nation convention in Las Vegas. Crisitunity is the blogger who generally covers the Pacific Northwest. He talked with me about the team's decision to bump the race over.

"Swing State Project moved OR-Gov to Tossup largely on the basis of polling showing, almost without exception, a race within a point or two either direction," said Crisitunity. "That's primarily the prolific Rasmussen (whose reputation precedes them), and a few other pollsters we're leery of (openly Republican pollster Magellan, and SurveyUSA), but also Tim Hibbitts, who has a sterling reputation in Oregon. Even if the intangibles seem to support a Kitzhaber victory -- Oregon's Democratic lean, its long track record of electing Democratic governors, and the difference in candidate quality and gravitas -- the difficult nature of the year and the potential for Dudley to outspend Kitzhaber mean it can't be taken for granted and Kitzhaber could just as easily lose as win."

Crisitunity went on to say that they're "alarmed" by chatter they're hearing that Kitzhaber seems to be coasting on his well-earned reputation. They believe Kitz may also be viewing the race through an "outdated prism of bipartisanship and amicable problem-solving". Swing State is concerned that the former Governor is waiting for the inevitable need to throw some punches and define Dudley instead of trying to somehow "transcend politicking as usual."

Of primary concern for a lot of Oregon Dems is Dudley's fundraising lead.

Since the May 18 primary, Dudley has raised nearly $850,000 -- more than three times the $269,000 raised by Kitzhaber. Overall, Dudley has raised $2.6 million, nearly 50 percent more than the $1.76 million raised by his Democratic rival.

Veteran political reporter Jeff Mapes digs deeper into that fundraising. Dudley, since retiring from the NBA, has worked as an "investment manager," giving him plenty of access to very wealthy people, like his fellow NBA pros. But he's raising a ton, "45 percent of his money, about $744,000" in very blue Portland and that's a problem.

Labor endorsements, and the money that comes with them, are going to start coming in and Kitzhaber will certainly get those. But he's certainly going to have to do more than rely on that to catch up with Dudley in fundraising, and to remind Oregonians that he's the one that's got the experience to lead the state and that his opponent is just another Republican looking out for his rich buddies.

Race tracker wiki: OR-Gov

Midday open thread

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 11:51:29 AM PDT

  • I can't wait for Netroots Nation 2011 in Minneapolis. Who'll be there?
  • Mark Kirk takes some time off from his lying to lie some more -- this time about Netroots Nation.
  • Hilarious!

    The Pensacola News Journal reports the son of a Florida state House candidate "hid an infrared video camera, often used by hunters to track game" to monitor some his father's campaign signs at a local intersection. Minutes later, his father's opponent and wife are caught on video removing the signs.

  • The folks over at Swing State Project have once again put together their monster Q2 House fundraising results list. That's A LOT of freakin' candidates.
  • What's the matter with Canada?

    Last month, Canada, a nation with roughly one tenth of our population, created about 10,000 more new jobs than America.

    Yes, Canada's economic recovery is outpacing our own. In terms of sheer job creation, June saw Canada create jobs at a pace that was five times the rate predicted by economists, Bloomberg News reports. Canada added 93,200 jobs in June, while U.S. private employers added just 83,000.

    Private employers can sure focus on job creation when they're not saddled with out-of-control health care costs for employees, nor a government more interested in bailing out big financial institutions at the expense of smaller companies.

  • Megan McArdle tries to discredit Elizabeth Warren. Ends up discrediting herself. More here, and here.
  • Navajo has some Netroots Nation Day 3 photos. And Day 2. And Day 1.
  • Paul Krugman:

    I have to say, I don’t get the administration waffling on Elizabeth Warren at all.

    Leave aside the merits of appointing Warren, which are considerable, and think about the politics. At this point, not appointing Warren would be seen by the base as a slap in the face, and would seriously dampen enthusiasm going into the midterms. And Democrats need every bit of enthusiasm they can muster to avoid a Republican takeover of the House.

    Given that, it’s crazy to vacillate. Maybe Tim Geithner doesn’t like Warren. Maybe Rahm Emanuel finds her hard to deal with. (I’m speculating here, not speaking from any inside knowledge.) How can such things count compared with the catastrophic effect of a GOP victory on the White House?

  • No one could've predicted that putting content behind a pay wall would kill your readership.

    The Times (of London) has lost almost 90% of its online readership compared to February since making registration mandatory in June, calculations by the Guardian show.

  • Atrios, on missing Iraq reconstruction funds.

    Not especially shocked that no one has any idea what we did with all the money, but it does remind me of that multi-year period where it seemed that we invaded Iraq in order to free Iraqi schoolchildren from the tyranny of peeling paint.

  • Pretty compelling post.
  • A major science story could soon emerge thanks to NASA's Kepler mission, which indicates "earth-like" planets may be the most common kind of planet in our our galaxy. -- DS

Lieberman will miss DISCLOSE Act cloture vote

Tue Jul 27, 2010 at 11:20:03 AM PDT

After a strong push by Senate leadership and by President Obama himself to set up the DISCLOSE Act cloture vote today, the measure looks likely to fail, at least in a first round of voting today.

That's largely because Sen. Joe Lieberman won't be there.

Senate Democrats will be one vote down when they consider sweeping campaign finance disclosure legislation this afternoon as Senator Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn) has told party leadership he will miss the vote to attend a friend's funeral.

The senator's absence reduces the caucus's numbers from 59 to 58 voting members, all but assuring that the DISCLOSE Act won't pass when it comes up for a cloture vote Tuesday afternoon. The legislation's authors were already having difficulty finding a 60th vote to break a likely Republican filibuster. Without Lieberman, they will need two Republicans to cross party lines as opposed to one. Already two of the three most likely defectors -- Sens. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) -- have said they will oppose the measure.

All of the Democrats, including Ben Nelson, have committed to voting yes on the bill. Lieberman is a likely yes, which makes, you guessed it, Olympia Snowe the deciding vote. Presuming that Lieberman would vote yes, swinging Snowe over gives the Dems the chance to bring the vote back up for consideration in the future. Sargent has more:

Snowe, who is up for reelection in two years and is expected to face blowback if she votes No, can in fact vote Yes today. Because of Lieberman's absence, she would not be ensuring that it would pass, sparing her the wrath of Mitch McConnell, who is trying to keep the GOP caucus united against it.

But: A senior Dem Senate aide tells me that if Snowe does this, the measure could be brought up for a vote again when Lieberman is present, putting pressure on her to maintain her Yes vote. So again, as long as the odds are, this could still end up passing.

It's an important vote. Dems are going into this vote with the intention of defining the Republicans. That puts Snowe in a tough position, but she also needs to be looking ahead to her own reelection campaign in two years, when she's fully expecting a hard primary run at her from the right. Having this law in place could actually help her then.

Update: CQ is reporting that Snowe will join Republicans in filibustering the bill. Politico confirms that Lieberman will be a "yes" vote if Dems bring it back up. Now what to look for in the vote, which should start in about 20 minutes, is whether Reid votes yes or no. If he votes no, they'll bring it back up.


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On Mothertalkers:

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Gay marriage makes strange bedfellows

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