WaPo:

A team of federal investigators known as the "BP squad" is assembling in New Orleans to conduct a wide-ranging criminal probe that will focus on at least three companies and examine whether their cozy relations with federal regulators contributed to the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, according to law enforcement and other sources.

The squad at the FBI offices includes investigators from the Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Coast Guard and other federal agencies, the sources said. In addition to BP, the firms at the center of the inquiry are Transocean, which leased the Deepwater Horizon rig to BP, and engineering giant Halliburton, which had finished cementing the well only 20 hours before the rig exploded April 20, sources said.

The investigators are looking for any improprieties involving MMS:

One emerging line of inquiry, sources said, is whether inspectors for the Minerals Management Service, the federal agency charged with regulating the oil industry -- which is itself investigating the disaster -- went easy on the companies in exchange for money or other inducements. A series of federal audits has documented the MMS's close relationship with the industry.

...

One law enforcement official said criminal investigators will look for evidence that MMS inspectors were bribed or promised industry jobs in exchange for lenient treatment. "Every instinct I have tells me there ought to be numerous indictable cases in that connection between MMS and the industry," said this official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the investigation is unfolding.

(Emphasis added.)

According to the article, it will probably take at least a year for any indictments to flow from the investigation. Although that may feel like a year too long, holding people who broke the law accountable for their actions will be well worth the wait.

Arizona's new immigration law, the "papers please" law that requires law enforcement to demand the documents of anyone they suspect of being in the country illegally, will go in effect tomorrow unless U.S. District Judge Susan Bolton places an injunction on it today. She has said that "she feels no obligation to rule before the law goes into effect July 29," but NBC is reporting that she will rule today.

She could move to suspend enforcement of all or parts of the law based on several constitutional challenges, or take no action. Depending on her ruling, police could retool their policies accordingly.

The core of the law, The Arizona Republic reports, says police, when lawfully stopping, detaining or arresting a person that they have reasonable suspicion is undocumented, "must, when practicable, make reasonable efforts to determine the person's immigration status, except when it would interfere with an investigation."

In addition to the police action required, the bill also makes it a misdemeanor for an lawful immigrant to fail to carry their documents, and introduces additional penalties for sheltering, transporting, or hiring of illegal undocumented workers. The ruling is expected by 3:00 EDT.

Update: Pete Williams is reporting on MSNBC that the ruling has come down, and the judge has struck down put an injunction on some of the most controversial elements of the bill: enforcing the section requiring police from demanding documents, the requirement for legal immigrants to carry them, making it illegal for people to hire unauthorized laborers that might be undocumented to seek work, and allowing cops to make arrests without warrants if they think the suspect is in the country illegally.

Update 2: Via e-mail, here are the sections enjoined by Judge Bolton:

Applying the proper legal standards based upon well-established precedent, the Court finds that the United States is likely to succeed on the merits in showing that the following Sections of S.B. 1070 are preempted by federal law:

Portion of Section 2 of S.B. 1070
A.R.S. § 11-1051(B): requiring that an officer make a reasonable attempt to
determine the immigration status of a person stopped, detained or arrested if there is a reasonable suspicion that the person is unlawfully present in the United States, and requiring verification of the immigration status of any person arrested prior to releasing that person

Section 3 of S.B. 1070
A.R.S. § 13-1509: creating a crime for the failure to apply for or carry alien registration papers

Portion of Section 5 of S.B. 1070
A.R.S. § 13-2928(C): creating a crime for an unauthorized alien to solicit, apply for, or perform work

Section 6 of S.B. 1070
A.R.S. § 13-3883(A)(5): authorizing the warrantless arrest of a person where there is probable cause to believe the person has committed a public offense that makes the person removable from the United States

Read the decision here.

It's been nearly two weeks since a cap has stopped the flow of oil from BP's damaged well and as the New York Times reports, oil in the Gulf is rapidly disappearing from view, though concerns remain.

The immense patches of surface oil that covered thousands of square miles of the gulf after the April 20 oil rig explosion are largely gone, though sightings of tar balls and emulsified oil continue here and there.

Reporters flying over the area Sunday spotted only a few patches of sheen and an occasional streak of thicker oil, and radar images taken since then suggest that these few remaining patches are quickly breaking down in the warm surface waters of the gulf.

John Amos, president of SkyTruth, an environmental advocacy group that sharply criticized the early, low estimates of the size of the BP leak, noted that no oil had gushed from the well for nearly two weeks.

“Oil has a finite life span at the surface,” Mr. Amos said Tuesday, after examining fresh radar images of the slick. “At this point, that oil slick is really starting to dissipate pretty rapidly.”

Despite the disappearing slick, the NYT reports that concerns remain, particularly among Gulf fishermen who worry about toxicity of dispersants and whether oil has settled on the seafloor, both of which could pose a danger to the food chain including shrimp and crab larvae.

According to the Washington Post, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says that while oil is biodegrading, it remains in the water column -- though NOAA also says that not much oil has settled on the seafloor.

"The light crude oil is biodegrading quickly," NOAA director Jane Lubchenco  said during the response team daily briefing. "We know that a significant amount of the oil has dispersed and been biodegraded by naturally occurring bacteria."

Lubchenco said, however, that both the near- and long-term environmental effects of the release of several million barrels of oil remain serious and to some extent unpredictable.

"The sheer volume of oil that's out there has to mean there are some pretty significant impacts," she said. "What we have yet to determine is the full impact the oil will have not just on the shoreline, not just on wildlife, but beneath the surface."

But much of the oil appears to have been broken down into tiny, microscopic particles that are being consumed by bacteria. Little or none of the oil is on seafloor, she said, but is instead floating in the gulf waters.

Her conclusions come from the work of several NOAA boats now collecting water samples, as well as the analysis of academics brought in to help study the spill effects. The goal, she said, is to get a scientifically sound assessment of the overall environmental effects of the spill.

The Post noted that Lubchenco was careful to reject arguments advanced by BP-funded researchers that the impact of the spill would be minimal, saying that "anyone who classifies the results of the accident as anything less than catastrophic has not been watching."

Or, as is the case of BP, they hope nobody else is watching.

PPP returns to New Hampshire for the first time since April.

Public Policy Polling (PDF). 7/23-25. Voters. MoE 3.26%. (4/17-15 results)

In short, the head-to-heads between Paul Hodes and Bill Binnie and Ovide Lamontagne have held steady, Hodes has lost a little ground against Jim Bender, and he's gained ground against frontrunner Kelly Ayotte.

The change against Ayotte is the significant piece here. Significant because she's the frontrunner by a large margin, but most significant because this is the first time a poll has the gap between Ayotte and Hodes under seven points in nearly a year.

As Tom Jensen notes, "There's not much doubt that the shift in the race is all about Ayotte." While Hodes' net favorability has improved slightly (from 32% favorable/39% unfavorable to 35/40), Ayotte's net favorability has plummeted from 34/24 to 36/39. In particular, Hodes has opened up a massive lead among moderates.

What's the explanation? Ayotte's problems with the FRM ponzi scheme may have had some effect. But PPP's Jensen points to Sarah Palin. Palin endorsed Ayotte last week, highlighting Ayotte's anti-abortion stance. Not only is New Hampshire a solidly pro-choice state, but

51% of voters in the state say they're less likely to back a Palin endorsed candidate to only 26% who say that support would make them more inclined to vote for someone. Among moderates that widens to 65% who say a Palin endorsement would turn them off to 14% who it would make more supportive.

This is Ayotte's first major sign of vulnerability. Will it be the opening wedge that Hodes uses to break the race open, or will it be another opportunity that slips away?

You'd think, since Tony Hayward has been ousted from BP, he'd have a lot of free time on his hands, but apparently not:

BP's attempt to draw a line under its troubles in the US by axing its chief executive has been blunted after Tony Hayward said he would be "too busy" to attend a Senate hearing on Thursday.

...

The Senate foreign relations committee has asked Hayward to appear in Washington to explain BP's alleged role in influencing the release of the Lockerbie bomber in order to win drilling rights in Libya.

But Hayward said today he could not go because "I have got a busy week [in the office]". BP said it would send another representative to testify at the hearing.

Apparently, he'll be too busy feeling sorry for himself for being "demonised and vilified" and trying to get his life back:

Probably Hayward's biggest gaffe comes before a mass of reporters on the Louisiana shore when he says: "The first thing to say is I'm sorry. We're sorry for the massive disruption it's caused their lives. There's no one who wants this over more than I do. I would like my life back."

Good luck with that, Tony. Don't let a little thing like a Senate investigation get in the way of you and your "busy week."

Via David Dayen, a story that might have gotten overlooked during Netroots Nation from MSNBC:

WASHINGTON — Some major health insurance companies have stopped issuing certain types of policies for children, an unintended consequence of President Barack Obama's health care overhaul law, state officials said Friday.

Florida Insurance Commissioner Kevin McCarty said in his state UnitedHealthcare and Blue Cross Blue Shield have stopped issuing new policies that cover children individually. Oklahoma Insurance Commissioner Kim Holland said a couple of local insurers in her state have done likewise....

The major types of coverage for children — employer plans and government programs — are not be affected by the disruption. But a subset of policies — those that cover children as individuals — may run into problems. Even so, insurers are not canceling children's coverage already issued, but refusing to write new policies.

The Affordable Care Act requires that insurers cover kids, regardless of medical problems. This is one of the most important and most popular elements of the bill, and one that appears to have a loophole allowing insurers who carry policies that would cover children as individuals to just not offer them. The reason? All those irresponsible and greedy parents who won't bother to insure their kids until they're sick. Really:

"Our plans are very concerned about this," said Alissa Fox, a top Washington lobbyist for the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association. "If the law says that insurers have to take you any time, any place, some people will see that as an opportunity to wait until their children get sick to buy coverage."

A psychologist might call that projection--insurers are so used to figuring out how to game the system, exploit loopholes, and circumvent regulations, that's just business as usual. So regular people must take the same approach to buying insurance, right?

On the same day that MSNBC reported on that, this happened.

When people think of deficit reduction, they tend to think about spending cuts and tax increases. They don't think as much about saving money by putting more effective policies into place. But as the Congressional Budget Office's analysis of a new public option proposal from Pete Stark suggests, maybe they should.

Stark wants to add a public option to the exchanges that would start by paying doctors the rates Medicare pays plus 5 percent, and then grow with the cost of physicians' services. According to the CBO, this plan's premiums "would be 5 percent to 7 percent lower, on average, than the premiums of private plans offered in the exchanges." But that's not all!

"The proposal would reduce federal budget deficits through 2019 by about $53 billion," CBO says. And because the public plan is saving more money as time goes on, if you extend that out to 2020, the savings to the government are $68 billion. That implies a savings of $200 billion or so in the second decade. That's a lot of money, and it's in addition to the savings for consumers.

We could still have a plan that takes all comers and saves a helluva lot of money, to boot.

Bigotry may not be the only motive behind Arizona Governor Jan Brewer's rabidly xenophobic new immigration law. Another factor may be that timeless Republican standard: greed. Zaid Jilani of Think Progress explains:

Yet a new investigation by local Arizona TV news station CBS 5 finds that the Brewer administration may have ulterior motives for its strong support of the new law. The station has found that "two of Brewer’s top advisers have connections" to private prison giant Corrections Corporation of America (CCA).

Paul Senseman, Brewer’s deputy chief of staff, is a former lobbyist for CCA. His wife continues to lobby for the company. Meanwhile Chuck Coughlin, who leads her re-election campaign, chaired her transition into the governorship, and is one of the governor’s policy advisors, is president of HighGround Public Affairs Consultants, which lobbies for CCA.

The best of all possible Republican worlds: codify racism, and make money while doing so? From the CBS 5 website:

The private prison industry houses illegal immigrant detainees for the federal government. Those companies could gain contracts with state and local agencies to house illegal immigrants arrested for state violations.

Corrections Corporation of America, or CCA, holds the federal contract to house detainees in Arizona. The company bills $11 million per month.

CCA insists it had nothing to do with the creation of the new law, has no state or local contracts to house detainees, and doesn't propose to house those detained because of the new Arizona law. In other words, it will be purely coincidental if those swept up by the new law end up being held by the same private contractor the federal government pays to hold detainees in Arizona. It will be purely coincidental if those swept up by the new law end up being held by the same private contractor that once employed Brewer's deputy chief of staff as a lobbyist, still employs his wife as a lobbyist, and pays a company run by Brewer's re-election chief, transition chair, and policy advisor to lobby.

In the spirit of innocent-until-proven-guilty--something the new law's supporters might not understand--someone should ask the Brewer team how, exactly, they do propose to house those swept up by their new law, and who, exactly, will be paid to house them. There can't be many options, but who can imagine that it might somehow coincidentally end up being CCA?

In the House, courtesy of the Office of the Majority Leader:

FLOOR SCHEDULE FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 28, 2010

House Meets At... 10:00 a.m.: Legislative Business
First Vote Predicted... 1:00 – 2:00 p.m.
Last Vote Predicted... 7:00 – 8:00 p.m.

“One Minutes” (15 per side)

H.R. 5822 - Making appropriations for military construction, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and related agencies for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2011 (Rep. Edwards (TX) – Appropriations) (Subject to a Rule)

Suspensions (16 Bills)

1. H.R. 4692 - National Manufacturing Strategy Act of 2010 (Rep. Lipinski - Energy and Commerce)
2. H.R. 5156 - Clean Energy Technology Manufacturing and Export Assistance Act of 2010 (Rep. Matsui – Foreign Affairs)
3. H.R. 1875 - End the Trade Deficit Act (Rep. DeFazio - Ways and Means)
4. H.Res. 1481 - Supporting the goals and ideals of "National Save for Retirement Week", including raising public awareness of the various tax-preferred retirement vehicles and increasing personal financial literacy (Rep. Schwartz - Ways and Means)
5. H.R. 1796 - Residential Carbon Monoxide Poisoning Prevention Act (Rep. Matheson - Energy and Commerce)
6. H.Res. 1499 - Honoring the achievements of Dr. Robert M. Campbell, Jr., to provide children with lifesaving medical care (Rep. Wasserman Schultz - Energy and Commerce)
7. H.R. 2480 - Truth in Fur Labeling Act (Rep. Moran (VA) - Energy and Commerce)
8. S. 1789 - Fair Sentencing Act of 2010 (Sen. Durbin - Judiciary)
9. H.R. 5751 - Fee on Lobbyists Act (Rep. Kilroy - Judiciary)
10. H.R. 5872 - General and Special Risk Insurance Funds Availability Act of 2010 (Rep. Frank - Financial Services)
11. Senate Amendments to H.R. 5610 - Independent Living Centers Technical Adjustment Act (Rep. George Miller - Education and Labor)
12. H.R. 5874 - Making Supplemental Appropriations for the United States Patent and Trademark Office for the Fiscal Year Ending September 30, 2010 (Rep. Mollohan - Appropriations)
13. H.R. 5875 - Making Emergency Supplemental Appropriations for Border Security for the Fiscal Year Ending September 30, 2010 (Reps. Price (NC)/Giffords - Appropriations)
14. H.Res. 1558 - Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that fruit and vegetable and commodity producers are encouraged to display the American flag on labels of products grown in the United States, reminding us all to take pride in the healthy bounty produced by American farmers and workers (Rep. Cardoza - Agriculture)
15. H.R. 4658 - Benton MacKaye Cherokee National Forest Land Consolidation Act (Rep. Duncan - Agriculture)
16. H.R. 5669 - To direct the Secretary of Agriculture to convey certain Federally owned land located in Story County, Iowa (Rep. Latham - Agriculture)

Postponed Suspension Votes (4 Bills)

1. H.Res. 1543 - Honoring the educational significance of Dr. Jane Goodall's work on this the 50th anniversary of the beginning of her work in Tanzania, Africa (Rep. Polis - Education and Labor)
2. H.Con.Res. 266 - Expressing the sense of Congress that Taiwan should be accorded observer status in the International Civil Aviation Organization (Rep. Berkley - Foreign Affairs)
3. H.R. 3040 - Senior Financial Empowerment Act (Rep. Baldwin - Judiciary)
4. H.R. 5827 - Protecting Gun Owners in Bankruptcy Act of 2010 (Rep. Boccieri - Judiciary)

• Conference Reports may be brought up at any time.
• Motions to go to Conference should they become available.
• Possible Motions to Instruct Conferees.

In the Senate, courtesy of the Office of the Majority Leader:

Convenes: 9:30am

Following any Leader remarks, the Senate will proceed to a period of morning business for 1 hour with senators permitted to speak therein for up to 10 minutes each. The Republicans will control the first 30 minutes and the Majority will control the next 30 minutes.

Following morning business, the Senate will resume consideration of H.R.5297, Small Business Jobs bill. Cloture was filed on the substitute amendment #4519 and the underlying bill. As a result, there is a 1:00pm filing deadline for germane first degree amendments to the Reid for Baucus-Landrieu substitute amendment (SA4519) and HR5297.

Not a controversial day on the Hill today. Twenty suspensions potentially up for votes today, and this time, they're all your basic, non-controversial suspension material. It's topped off by a little substantive work, but it's one of the traditionally least-controversial pieces of substantive work that's done all year, the military construction and VA appropriations bill.

On the Senate side, the sun is expected to rise, which means there's another cloture filing getting a mention on the schedule. But just to keep things truly boring, the cloture vote won't come until tomorrow. Today will be spent debating the Small Business Jobs bill... again. That bill, by the way, has been on the floor (with fingers crossed for reaching an agreement!) for a full month now. Who knew it would be so difficult to get agreement on creating jobs in small business? Everyone who hasn't had their head up their ass about the fact that there won't be any deals with Republicans. It's Senate GOP policy not to allow any "wins" for Democrats. Period.

Seriously. A month. For small business jobs. If you were watching the filibuster reform panel I did at Netroots Nation last Saturday and heard my answer to the "why can't they make 'em really filibuster" question, this is your illustration of the effect of the "two track" system. If you weren't following, here's the deal: the two track system was adopted in the 70s as a reform in filibuster practice. Previously, a bill that was being filibustered remained the pending business on the floor, and you couldn't do anything else until it was resolved. As a reform, they decided that there should be multiple "tracks" for bills to move on, so if one was being filibustered, you could just set it aside and work on something else. But the upshot of that reform was to make it very tempting to just not go back to anything that was being filibustered, meaning that objecting Senators could delay those bills indefinitely without actually having to occupy the floor to do it.

Hence, the Small Business Jobs bill "on the floor" for a month, without anything happening, and without anyone having to take the floor and talk to delay it.

And that's your filibuster reform story for the day. But while I have you:

Disclosure: I'm doing paid work on filibuster reform in the Senate, supported in part by CREDO Action and Blue America. We need your help to continue this work, and you can do it at no cost to you by signing CREDO Action's petition. Or hell, let it cost you something and go donate at Blue America's ActBlue page.

Today's committee schedule and Will's Hot D-on-R Action Picks appear below.

From the GREAT STATE OF MAINE...

Mailbag

Dear Mrs. Sherrod,

We were pleased to hear that the inflammatory and factually inaccurate charges of racism that were recently leveled against you via a selectively-edited video have been debunked as ludicrous. We agree that the person who posted the video is a cad, a fraud, a scalawag, a pillock, a roustabout, a ne'er-do-well, a nosey-parker and---if we may be so bold---a chaufferless canvas-sneaker-wearing nose picker. All apologies that have, or should, come your way on this matter are richly deserved.

As is the apology you owe us, Mrs. Sherrod.

Having listened to the entirety of your speech of 27 March, 2010, we find your comments against an entire class of Americans appalling. Specifically, you said, "[I]t's really about those who have versus those who don't. ... [T]he folks with money want to stay in power and, whether it's health care or whatever it is, they'll do what they need to do to keep that power, you know. It's always about money."

I might remind you, madam, that without such funds, we would have no Bentleys, no private jets, no solid-gold commodes, no summer mansions in the Hamptons, and no senators at our beck and call. No private academies for our children, no beluga caviar, no opening-night private-box seats, and certainly no Manolo Blahnik alligator-skin boots. It would be positively dull.

Furthermore, I wonder if you understand just how difficult it is to keep track of what you refer to as "money." The interest alone keeps our accountants working many more hours than we'd like, which, of course, means we have less to spend on the essentials listed above. "Having" is not as easy as it looks, I assure you.

The rest of the country may have let you off the hook, Mrs. Sherrod. But we have not and will not until you apologize for sullying our good name. To put it as bluntly as we can: you have burned our Gucci chaps.

Good day, madam.

I said...good day, madam!

Sincerely,

Mortimer Edward Excelsior "Lou" Winthorp IV, President
The National Society of Haves with Power

P.S. Raffle tickets now on sale for the NSHP's 5,000th anniversary gala. $100,000 each or five for $400,000. Fabulous prizes include a Tuscany villa, a free hidden offshore tax haven, and $1 million donated to the candidate of your choice. The more you buy the better your chances. Good luck!

Cheers and Jeers starts in There's Moreville... [Swoosh!!] RIGHTNOW! [Gong!!]

Wednesday opinionating, Sarah Palin and wonkery. Bet you never thought you'd see Palin and wonkery in the same sentence.

Greg Sargent:

The pattern is becoming overwhelmingly obvious. Palin's current role of celebrity quasi-candidate works for her. It's allowed her to insulate herself from direct media cross-examination and to communicate directly to the Palin Nation hordes, who remain as transfixed as ever. But the rest of the world continues to find her more and more distasteful, and it's growing less likely that she'll succeed if she ever steps outside the bubble she's crafted for herself.

UPDATE, 1:03 p.m.: It gets better: That new poll out of New Hampshire also finds that 51 percent say they're less likely to back a Palin-endorsed candidate; among moderates that number is 65 percent.

Susan Jacoby:

You can be sure of one thing: if Sarah should become the Republican nominee: She'll have cleaned up the Bristol-Levi-baby trio into something more suitable for middle-class consumption. Because the truth is that Bristol Palin and Levi Johnston are most middle-class American parents' worst nightmare, but they are a nightmare that arises directly from the daily dream world propagated by politicians like Sarah Palin and her supporters.

Whenever I hear liberal-to-centrist pundits saying that even if Sarah gets the Republican nomination, she will only ensure Obama's re-election, I shudder. That this representative of pure ignorance, retrograde religion, and class envy is being taken seriously at all speaks volumes about the dumbing down of America.

CBPP:

To help reduce projected budget deficits, some have suggested paring back the tax credits that the Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010 provides to help low- and moderate-income families afford health coverage through new state-based health insurance exchanges. Those deficit hawks recommending this course should set their sights on other prey: the credits are not generous (even with the credits, families will pay a substantial and growing share of their income on health insurance premiums with each passing year), and shrinking them would put the law’s insurance market reforms — and its cost-control measures — at serious risk.

Maryn McKenna:

Pertussis is an awful disease. A child in the throes of a paroxysm sounds like nothing else on earth. Children turn blue, give themselves black eyes, die. We kept it down to manageable levels with the help of a vaccine. That we would willingly bring it back it is beyond belief.

Paul Offit, MD:

What Michael Smith and Charles Woods did that I think was really interesting is they mined that dataset to see whether there was any relationship between the timing of receipt of vaccines and neurologic outcome. They divided these children into 2 groups. The first group were children who had received vaccines according to the CDC-AAP [American Academy of Pediatrics] schedule, and the second group were children whose parents had chosen to delay vaccines or not to give vaccines. What they found was that there was no difference between these 2 groups in terms of their neurologic outcomes.

I think that parents can be reassured here that a choice to delay vaccines or not to give vaccines does not in any sense decrease the risk for a poor neurologic outcome or autism; all it does is increase the period of time during which children are susceptible to vaccine-preventable diseases. Delaying vaccines or separating vaccines or withholding vaccines offers no benefit, and only increases the risk to the child. I think it would be of value for doctors to read this study and to share it with parents who are concerned about vaccines.

Maryn gives a reason to vaccinate. Paul gives reasons not to delay.

CNN:

About 300 additional firefighters joined a battle Tuesday to contain a growing wildfire in California's Sequoia National Forest.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the fire had spread across roughly 6,000 acres, U.S. Bureau of Land Management spokeswoman Michelle Puckett said. The bureau is working with the U.S. Forest Service and the Kern County Fire Department to fight the blaze.

This can't be good.Update [2010-7-28 8:26:13 by DemFromCT]: An alert reader notes low intensity surface fires help sequois propagate, but not sure where this fits...

Harold Meyerson:

The problem isn't merely the greatest downturn since the Great Depression. It's also that big business has found a way to make big money without restoring the jobs it cut the past two years, or increasing its investments or even its sales, at least domestically.

This can't be good, either.

Tonight's Rescue Rangers are Louisiana 1976, ybruti, grog, HoosierDeb, pico, and sunspark says, with Alfonso Nevarez editing.

Salutations!

• Weaving together speculative fiction with rant, Lightning Rod waxes on ecology and extinction in Me and My Manatee — Systems Stressed. (pico)
• Lefty Coaster wove a spontaneous side trip into the process of Leaving Las Vegas (well almost). (HoosierDeb)
• gaycatholic would like to remind the Vatican about Catholic Priests and Gay Sex in History, a tradition that goes back centuries. (pico)
• Ever thought of publishing your diaries as a book? Word Alchemy tells how and when to do so in To Tell The Truth: From Blog to Book. (Louisiana 1976)
• credstone describes soon-to-be unemployed workers in a valuable Community Action Program and says 900,000 Will Lose Jobs When ARRA Jobs Funding Expires on September 30. (ybruti)
• Confused about savings, investment, and macroeconomics? With simplified language and examples, Frank Palmer leads us through Economics -- sideways in time. (pico)
• Did you know that the Onondaga Nation declared war on Germany in 1917? Learn about that and more as Ojibwa takes us into World War I & American Indians. (grog)

jotter analyzes High Impact Diaries: July 26, 2010.

brillig gathers the Top Comments.

If you've read a terrific, radiant, or humble diary today, or any diary ever written about a great pig, please do link to it in a comment below the fold.

On this day in 1988, the world of competitive sports lost an innovator who forever changed one of the most celebrated of winter sports.

Anyone who has ever sat in an arena in the wintertime, bored out of your mind between periods of a hockey game, owes a grand debt to this man for his brilliant piece of machinery. With that in mind, the Wrap gives a posthumous tip of the hat to none other than Frank Zamboni. Good on you, Frank.

With that, it's back to the world of politics, where the Wrap is filled to capacity. The headlines are fast and furious on this Tuesday: internal polls abound, Willie Herenton is still an ass (but his schtick ain't working), and Tom Emmer is still not very smart.

All that (and more!) in the Tuesday edition of the Wrap....

THE U.S. SENATE

CO-Sen: Romanoff goes all-in, while Norton tweaks Buck
Two headlines out of Colorado today: one of them was utterly predictable, while the other one is a pretty big shocker. The shocker is the all-in level of commitment were are seeing from Democratic challenger Andrew Romanoff, who has sold his house to finance the final month of his primary challenge to appointed incumbent Michael Bennet. The sale netted the challenger $325K, which he directed to his campaign. On the more predictable campaign tactical front, Jane Norton has decided to exploit the opening led by Ken Buck with his recorded smackdown of the "dumbasses" in the Tea Party. Even in defending the teabaggers, though, Norton probably crapped the bed with those folks. While she defended the teabaggers' right to their birtherism, she also said that she did not share it, saying that Hawaii has settled the issue, and that she thinks Obama is a citizen.

That trampling sound you hear is the teabagger set running back to Ken Buck.

IL-Sen: Special election decree could shake up Senate race
It's not a lock just yet, but it is now exceedingly likely that a federal judge will order a special election in Illinois to coincide with the regularly scheduled federal election this November. While it is unlikely to change the cast of characters (the parties will almost certainly get to appoint the special election nominees, and just as certainly will give the nominations to their already-elected nominees), it does have two key impacts to consider. For one, it would appear that will give whomever emerges from the race a leg up on seniority. For another, it could have a real fundraising impact, as both Alexi Giannoulias and Mark Kirk could then go back to their maxed-out donors, since there are now two elections instead of one.

KY-Sen: Conway leaps on opportunity, dings Paul on ADA anniversary
In a pretty clever campaign gambit, Democratic contender Jack Conway managed to tie together Rand Paul's generic batshit craziness with the high-profile big-bucks fundraiser that Paul is having with former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. In a speech celebrating the 20th anniversary of the Americans with Disabilities Act, Conway noted that the landmark bill was signed by George H.W. Bush. He noted that sad irony that Bush's son would assist a candidate (Paul) who was on the record opposing certain aspects of the A.D.A. The Conway campaign also released late last week internal polling which showed the Democrat dead-even with the GOP standard bearer, and leading him easily among those folks who know both candidates.

NC-Sen: Civitas poll gives Burr narrow lead over Marshall
When a nominally GOP pollster puts the GOP incumbent well under 50%, and only up by six points, that has to be seen as a fairly optimistic sign for the challenger. The Civitas poll released today gives incumbent Republican Richard Burr a lead of 44-38 over Democrat Elaine Marshall, with Libertarian Michael Beitler down at 3% of the vote. Two items to note: among those who are certain of their preference, the margin gets cut down to four points (32-28). Furthermore, Marshall also seems to have some upside, with half of the voters still unsure of whether or not they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her. Marshall's campaign released an internal poll last week showing her up on Burr by a 37-35 margin.

OK-Sen: Primary day in the Sooner State
Oklahomans wrapped up a pair of primaries tonight to determine their U.S. Senate candidates for the Fall. Neither primary received a lot of attention, if for no other reason than the strong supposition that the Senate race will be totally uncompetitive in the Fall. There were a pair of GOP challengers challenging incumbent Tom Coburn (who nevertheless won with 90% of the vote), while the Democratic primary voters chose retiree Jim Rogers over attorney Mark Myles. Rogers, a perennial candidate, is not considered to be a serious contender for November.

THE U.S. HOUSE

ID-01: Minnick second Democrat to call for Rangel ouster
Less than three days after Ohio Congresswoman Betty Sutton became the first Democrat to call for embattled New York veteran Rep. Charlie Rangel to step down, another high-profile Democrat has followed suit. Walt Minnick, the freshman Democrat who represents one of the reddest districts in the nation, has called for Rangel to step down. Saying he originally was willing to let the voters of the New York 15th district make the decision, Minnick now says the proponderance of the evidence makes it "clear" that Rangel should go. Given Minnick's location of most target lists, it is fair to wonder if his call will start a dam break of vulnerable Democrats.

IL-17: GOP contender claims double-digit lead in an internal poll
You might recall a couple of months ago when some GOPers openly talked about gains in the 100 seat range. It seemed absurd at the time, but if internal polls like this one are legit (an open question, of course), those lofty projections might just be legit. A poll by Magellan for little-known GOP contender Bobby Schilling claims that he has a thirteen-point edge (45-32) over sophomore incumbent Democrat Phil Hare.

MN-03: GOP freshman leads by 22...in Democratic internal poll
Add this to the list of curious releases of internal polling data. A new poll for Democratic challenger Jim Meffert shows incumbent Erik Paulsen staked to an early 44-22 lead over the challenger. The Independence Party candidate snagged 7% of the vote. I suppose that the goal there was to show Paulsen under 50%, but that impact is muted somewhat by showing Meffert under 25%, one would think.

OK-01/OK-02/OK-05: Voters pick House nominees
Three of the Sooner State's five Congressional districts headed to the polls today to pick their nominees for the Fall. In OK-01, incumbent John Sullivan was forced to battle with five Republican challengers. Sullivan won with a less-than-impressive 63% of the vote. He is secure for November, however, as only a Libertarian challenger awaits in the Fall. In OK-02, Democratic state legislator Jim Wilson made a late decision to primary ConservaDem Dan Boren. Perhaps as a result of his late start, he came up well short against Boren, who drew 76% of the vote. Meanwhile, we will have to wait four weeks for Boren's Republican challenger, as the multi-candidate GOP field resulted in a runoff election. A runoff is also in order in OK-05, where Mary Fallin left to run for Governor.

TN-09: Herenton plays race card (again), but CBC doesn't bite
It would have been very difficult to run a more repugnant campaign than the one Nikki Tinker threw at Steve Cohen two years ago. But, quite clearly, former Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton is doing his damnedest. Herenton is invoking race repeatedly in his battle with Cohen, one of a small handful of white Congressmen representing majority-black districts. He referred to voters needing to "come off of that Cohen plantation." He also repeated, for about the tenth time, the necessity for Tennessee to have "just one" black member of Congress. One prominent group that isn't buying Herenton's schtick is the Congressional Black Caucus. The group endorsed Cohen yesterday. This is a departure for the caucus, which offered financial assistance to Tinker in her bid against Cohen in 2008.

WI-03: GOP internal poll keeps Dem Kind in lead, but modestly
Unlike the eye-popping Illinois internal poll, an internal poll out of Wisconsin gives the Republican challenger respectable numbers, but keeps a longtime Democratic incumbent out in front of the field. The poll shows seventh-term Democratic incumbent Ron Kind leading with 44% of the vote, ahead of Republican Dan Kapanke (38%) and Libertarian Michaek Krsiean (6%). Interesting dichotomy from the poll--the poll has Barack Obama at a middling 48% approval rating, but has a nine-point generic lead for a GOP candidate.

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: The DCCC ad blitz (wave #1) is revealed
The guys over at Swing State Project has the complete list of 41 districts that the DCCC have reserved air time for this Fall. SSP has helpfully put the districts in a sortable table, with designations of the margin of victory in the House in 2008, as well as Barack Obama's percentages in each district. Two caveats--this is the first wave, and not an exhaustive list. I'd expect the Democrats to also play some offense, and I'd expect to see some other districts get some attention. Furthermore, reserving time doesn't mean said time will be used. If Raul Labrador continues to lag behind Walt Minnick, for example, that cash in ID-01 can be redirected elsewhere.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

FL-Gov: McCollum down six...in his own internal polling
Just like with Arkansas Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln last week, let's use the latest poll release by Florida gubernatorial candidate Bill McCollum to review a simple rule--it is rarely a good thing for a candidate to release an internal poll that shows said candidate getting beat. Yet that is exactly what McCollum has done--he released a poll by McLaughlin and Associates showing him trailing bazillionaire Rick Scott by a 37-31 margin. Apparently, McCollum felt the need to sell two memes: 1) there are a ton of undecideds left in the race and 2) he is not down by as much as some folks might fear.

MD-Gov: Public poll gives Dem incumbent slight lead in rematch
In Maryland, the rematch of the 2006 battle between current Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley and former Republican Governor Robert Ehrlich is pretty damned close to a coin flip, according to a local pollster. The poll, by Gonzales Research, has the Democrat O'Malley up three points (45-42) over Ehrlich. President Obama's approval ratings have slid even in blue Maryland--the Gonzales poll had the President at a 51% approval rating.

MI-Gov: Is Bouchard the sleeper candidate on the GOP side?
Virtually all of the attention in Michigan is on the triumvirate of Mike Cox, Peter Hoekstra, and Rick Snyder, but Hotline On Call's Dan Roem is betting on a longshot in that primary. He is betting on Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard. Roem's rationales are solid: not only does Bouchard have more cash to blow in the final week of the campaign than anyone else in the field, he has been courting the uber-activist (some might say "batshit crazy") vote, with the endorsements of luminaries such as Ted Nugent, Joe Arpaio, and Samuel Joe the Plumber.

In other Michigan gov news, Attorney General Mike Cox is fending off a new allegation, and a salacious one, at that. An eyewitness, who claimed he worked security at a long-rumored wild party thrown by Kwame Kilpatrick in 2002 in Manoogian Mansion, is now alleging that not only was Mike Cox a guest at the party, he was the recipient of a lap dance from one of the cadre of exotic dancers hired to work to the party. Cox, for his part, vehemently denies the allegation, and it is worth noting that the accuser in question does have three criminal convictions on his record over the past 14 years.

MN-Gov: Tom Emmer is evidently not a smart man
This has to be one of the clubhouse leaders in the contest for most absurd campaign statements of the 2010 cycle. Trying to appeal to a crowd of veterans at a campaign stop, GOP nominee Tom Emmer called for a Minnesota GI Bill which would provide higher education assistance to the families of fallen soldiers. Strike one: he was calling for a piece of legislation that has already been law for three years. Strike two: Emmer voted against it in the state legislature. Emmer memorably attributed the flub to "bad staff work".

OK-Gov: It's Fallin vs. ????? in November
As polls prior to today's primary essentially predicted, Congresswoman Mary Fallin cruised to a reasonably easy victory on the GOP side. Fallin easily outpaced state legislator Randy Brogdon (57-37). The real drama, however, is on the Democratic side, where state Lt. Governor Jari Askins is leading narrowly in an upset over Attorney General Drew Edmondson. With nearly 90% of the vote tabulated, Askins is up by a pair of points (51-49) over Edmondson, but roughly half of the precincts in Edmondson's stronghold of Tulsa County are still outstanding.

TX-Gov: Perry hemmorhaging support from border sheriffs
Interesting catch this morning from the Houston Chronicle, which noted that Democrat Bill White has snagged a number of county sheriffs from along the Texas-Mexican border. In 2006, Perry swept the endorsements of the border sheriffs. This time around, White looks to have claimed support from the majority of sheriffs. The only dispute, at this point, appears to be whether it is eight or nine of the 15 sheriffs along the border. At issue, as would be expected, appears to be law enforcement funding.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA

Pretty quiet day for the House of Ras. They look at the all-important U.S. Senate race in Alabama (while holding onto the one result, the gubernatorial race, that we might actually care about). They also look at the Democratic U.S. Senate primary in Arizona, and they give the GOP continued high marks in Colorado at the Senate level (which strains belief a bit, given their recent troubles).

AL-Sen: Sen. Richard Shelby (R) 59%, William Barnes (D) 29%
AZ-Sen (D): Rodney Glassman 15%, Cathy Eden 11%, Randy Parraz 10%, John Dougherty 7%
CO-Sen: Jane Norton (R) 48%, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 39%
CO-Sen: Jane Norton (R) 44%, Andrew Romanoff (D) 40%
CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) 48%, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 42%
CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) 48%, Andrew Romanoff (D) 42%
OR-Gov: Chris Dudley (R) 47%, John Kitzhaber (D) 44%

Not that the Bush-Cheney war on Iraq was about stealing Iraqi oil assets or anything. It's only a coincidence.

The Defense Department is unable to properly account for $8.7 billion out of $9.1 billion in Iraqi oil revenue entrusted to it between 2004 and 2007, according to a newly released audit that underscores a pattern of poor record-keeping during the war.

Of that amount, the military failed to provide any records at all for $2.6 billion in purported reconstruction expenditure, says the report by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, which is responsible for monitoring U.S. spending in Iraq. The rest of the money was not properly deposited in special accounts as required under Treasury Department rules, making it difficult to trace how it was spent.

Though there is no apparent evidence of fraud, the improper accounting practices add to the pattern of mismanagement, reckless spending and, in some instances, corruption uncovered by the agency since 2004, when it was created to oversee the total of $53 billion in U.S. taxpayer money appropriated by Congress for the reconstruction effort.

No apparent evidence of fraud? Simple accounting errors?

First, let's look at those numbers in the proper context. With lots of zeros. $8,700,000,000. Out of $9,100,000,000. Missing. Gone. Poof.

Now, let's do the math. $8,700,000,000 divided by $9,100,000,000. That comes to 0.9560. Or 95.6%. Missing. Of the Iraqi oil revenue entrusted to the Defense Department between 2004 and 2007. Which would be during the Bush-Cheney administration. Which would be mostly during the tenure of Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense.

$8,700,000,000.

95.6%.

Unaccounted for. Gone. Missing. Poof. Like magic.

Remember when Paul Wolfowitz said Iraqi oil revenue could finance Iraq's reconstruction? He was just a little off, on that. And it doesn't make it any easier when 95.6% of the oil revenue just vanishes without a trace. Like magic.

The Iraqis are not happy. Even Republicans should be able to understand why the Iraqis are not happy. Not that the invasion and occupation and devastation of Iraq was about stealing their oil assets or anything.

Talk about ironic: Tennessee Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey, running for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, says he doesn't support religious freedom for Muslims...because he doesn't want to live under "Sharia Law."

At a recent event in Hamilton County, Ramsey was asked by a man in the audience about the "threat that's invading our country from the Muslims." Ramsey proclaimed his support for the Constitution and the whole "Congress shall make no law" thing when it comes to religion. But he also said that Islam, arguably, is less a faith than it is a "cult."

...

"Now, you know, I'm all about freedom of religion. I value the First Amendment as much as I value the Second Amendment as much as I value the Tenth Amendment and on and on and on," he said. "But you cross the line when they try to start bringing Sharia Law here to the state of Tennessee -- to the United States. We live under our Constitution and they live under our Constitution."

That sounds about as rational as arguing that women should be forced to cover their bodies from head to toe to protect them from being forced to wear a burqa. I mean, the whole point of the First Amendment is that not only does it prohibit discrimination against all religions, including Islam, but it also prohibits the imposition of a theocracy, whether rooted in Sharia Law or the religious extremism of American Taliban figures like Ramsey.

Ramsey trails Rep. Zach Wamp in the nomination battle, but before you start wondering whether Ramsey's little burst of extremism might give his campaign renewed hope, Wamp may still have the edge on Ramsey when it comes to conservative lunacy: Wamp says that if health care reform isn't repealed, Tennessee ought to secede from the United States of America. I guess Ramsey ought to get behind Wamp's proposal, because if that happens, they won't have the First Amendment -- or any of the others -- to worry about anymore.

You know you're in trouble when this is how you begin an explanation of why you were right:

Random House Webster's College Dictionary defines...

At issue: Jeffrey Lord's self-defense from criticism by fellow conservatives of his claim that Shirley Sherrod was a liar because she described the brutal slaying of her relative Bobby Hall by Sheriff Claude Screws as a "lynching."

Lord tries to argue that the murder couldn't have been a lynching because the dictionary's definition of lynching reads: "to put to death, esp. hanging by mob action and without legal authority." He argues in part that Screws was not part of a mob. Given that Screws was one of a gang of three murderers, Lord's argument is absurd, especially because the definition he cites does not require mob action nor does it require hanging, but it gets worse. Lord also argues that because the Supreme Court -- on narrow, technical grounds -- overturned Screws' conviction of violating Hall's civil rights, that Screws did in fact have legal authority to murder Hall.

Second, the Supreme Court specifically said the Sheriff and his deputy and a local policeman acted "under color of law." Which means they had legal authority.

Of course, there's always the fact that the State of Georgia refused to indict Screws for homicide, even though everybody knew he'd killed Bobby Hall in cold blood. I guess in Lord's strange little world, this means Screws had the proper legal authority to murder Bobby Hall. But that tells you more about what's inside Lord's mind than it does anything else.

BP announced its second quarter earnings, and news reports are focusing on the oil giant's record loss, as its disastrous oil gusher continues to poison the Gulf of Mexico. Curiously, it takes some digging to find anyone willing to mention that BP's revenues actually soared, last quarter. The Irish Times made such an effort:

BP’s underlying performance, excluding the spill, was strong in the second quarter, with profits of $5 billion and operating cash flow of $8.9 billion, up 31 per cent from the equivalent period of 2009.

BP is doing just fine. It will sell some assets to help cover the short term loss, and it also has other clever plans. For example, in case you were wondering how it will find the cash to put into its oil gusher escrow fund (assuming BP ever does actually put cash into it), you need not worry. Marketwatch explains that BP will take a $32 billion charge against earnings, due in part to the oil spill--which means it will get a $9.9 billion tax credit.

$9,900,000,000.

Nice round number, that. Wonder how BP came up with it. But it is a bit reminiscent of retail prices that always end in 99 cents, rather than rounding up to the next digit, which always looks worse. Because $9.9 billion rounds up to $10 billion, which is exactly half the amount BP promised to put into that escrow fund that it thus far hasn't funded.

"We have followed the IRS regulations as they're currently written," outgoing BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward said in a conference call.

Indeed. Hayward was brilliant at following the rules. He is a master of his industry. He shouldn't have been fired, he should have been bronzed.

Meanwhile, in case you were worried about BP investors, such as Wisconsin Republican Senate candidate Ron Johnson, you also can rest assured. The stock took a hit in the U.S., today, but it's been doing well of late, and even rose in anticipation of the earnings report.