Check out our two new sites:
Political Dictionary and
Political Job Hunt
July 29, 2010
A new
Fox News poll finds that if Americans were heading to the voting booth today, they would back the Republican candidate in their district over the Democrat by 11 points, 47% to 36%. Two weeks ago the Republicans had a slimmer 4-point advantage.
"Despite the Republican edge on the generic ballot question, voters have mixed views on how things would change if the GOP gained control of Congress. Thirty-eight percent think there would be no real change. Thirty-seven percent think it would lead to change for the better, while 21% say it would change for the worse."
Former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) "will not take the job leading the Motion Picture Association of America after the two sides realized they were too far apart on their respective visions for the position," according to the
Hollywood Reporter.
"After weeks of negotiations and rumors, Kerrey and the MPAA on Thursday agreed to end their negotiations over the top post. Kerrey
was offered the chance to become the chief lobbyist and global spokesman for the movie and TV industries more than two months ago."
The
Huffington Post notes that while senior members of the Obama administration chide the media "for obsessing about the day-to-day temperamental swings of the American public, behind the scenes the White House has poured plenty of money into conducting its own public opinion polls. Through June 9, 2010, the administration, via the Democratic National Committee, has spent at least $4.45 million on the services of seven different pollsters."
"That total represents only 18 months into the administration. During the first 24 months of the Bush administration, the Republican National Committee spent $3.1 million on polling according to a 2003 study done by Brookings."
The latest
Cook Political Report forecasts a 32 to 42 seat net gain for Republicans in the House of Representatives. Republicans need to net 39 seats to reach a bare majority of 218 seats.
In the Senate, the forecast is for a 5 to 7 seat net gain for Republicans, not enough to take control of the chamber.
This looks really good:
This Is Not Florida: How Al Franken Won the Minnesota Senate Recount by Jay Weiner.
The book is the behind-the-scenes saga of the largest, longest, and most expensive election recount in American history. Based on daily reporting during the eight months spent covering the recount, the author looks at the motivations of key players in the drama and explains how the Franken team's devotion to data collection helped him win the recount by a mere 312 votes.
A new
SurveyUSA poll in Oregon shows Sen. Ron Wyden (D) well ahead of challenger Jim Huffman (D), 53% to 35%.
A new
SurveyUSA poll in Oregon shows Chris Dudley (R) edging former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) in the race for Oregon governor, 46% to 44%
Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY) "has reportedly cut a deal to admit to ethical wrongdoing and avoid a potentially humiliating public trial,"
WCBS-TV reports.
Harlem friends of Rangel say they have been told that the details could be unveiled when the House Ethics Committee meets Thursday afternoon.
Update: The
Wall Street Journal reports the deal is still tentative and must be approved by the 10 member Ethics Committee.
"Republicans are still in a position to block the deal and force Mr.
Rangel into the congressional equivalent of a trial, which would take
place in the weeks before congressional elections this fall. Many
Democrats fear the proceedings would damage them politically just before
voters go to the polls."
Update II:
Roll Call reports Rangel was charged with 13 counts of wrongdoing, "including conduct reflecting discreditably on the chamber."
Nevada gubernatorial candidate Brian Sandoval (R) "did indeed say that his children don't look Hispanic" when asked by a Spanish-language television station "whether he was worried about his kids being profiled if they were in Arizona,"
Jon Ralston reports.
Sandoval twice denied making the comments but they "are on videotape, I have confirmed."
This certainly fits Kinsley's definition of a "
gaffe."
"I think they should name it something better. The top ends up flatter, but we're not talking about Mount Everest. We're talking about these little knobby hills that are everywhere out here."
-- Kentucky U.S. Senate candidate Rand Paul (R), in an interview with
Details magazine, on mountain top removal coal mining, noting many people "would say the land is of
enhanced value, because now you can build on it."
A "clearly dejected" Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY) arrived at his Capitol Hill office telling
ABC News that today could be a bad day.
Said Rangel: "Ahh boy. Sixty years ago, I survived a Chinese attack in North Korea, and as a result, I
wrote a book that having survived that, that I haven't had a bad day since. Today, I have to reassess that statement. Thank you."
The
Washington Post says Rangel "is headed for a legacy-defining moment Thursday, in
which the 40-year veteran will either admit to a string of ethical
misdeeds or force the preliminary phase of a historic trial on those
charges."
Nearly seven years after recalling him from office, a new
Public Policy Polling survey finds California voters say that they would rather have Gray Davis (D) as their governor than current Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) by a 44% to 38% margin.
This looks like it will be a good read:
Joe Biden: A Life of Trial and Redemption by Jules Witcover.
"With pressure mounting on the federal government to find new revenues," the
New York Times reports Congress "is considering legalizing, and taxing, an activity it banned just four years ago: Internet gambling."
First Read: "We've already mentioned that some states are looking at legalizing sports gambling as a way to collect more revenues. And what's probably next? Legalized marijuana. This is all the unintended consequence of making all tax increases politically toxic."
Rep. Joe Sestak (D) told the
Allentown Morning Call that President Obama has offered to come to Pennsylvania to help him campaign for U.S. Senate, but he would not be Sestak's first choice.
Said Sestak: "The president has offered to come and I went down to the White House and said absolutely, but I said, what I really want, my number one choice... I said Michelle Obama."
A
Zata3 poll in Colorado shows Andrew Romanoff (D) is within striking distance of Sen. Michael Bennet (D) in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Bennet leads 44% to 40%.
Colorado Pols: "But what Zata3 does not normally do is polling. That doesn't mean that they definitely don't have these numbers correct, but they are not a polling firm. You hire Zata3 to do persuasion phone calls or text messaging -- not polling -- just like you wouldn't normally hire a polling firm to do your direct mail. This is no knock on Zata3, it's just that it seems odd that you wouldn't use a professional polling firm if you wanted real polling results."
The latest
Kaiser tracking poll finds opposition to the landmark health care law signed into law by President Obama in March has declined over the past month, from 41% to 35%.
Meanwhile, 50% held a favorable view of the law, up slightly from 48% a month ago, and the highest level since the legislation was enacted.
A jury began deciding the fate of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich yesterday, the
Chicago Tribune reports.
"There is, of course, no way to tell how long the jury may take to reach a verdict. But the task before them is considerable: Blagojevich faces 24 counts of corruption, and there is a second defendant, Blagojevich's brother, Robert, who is charged with four counts. Over the past two months, dozens of undercover recordings were played in court and several former close advisers to the ex-governor were among 27 witnesses to testify for the government."
Jack Bohrer: "But there were no bags of cash. Nobody got shoved up against a wall and had his pockets turned out. The government caught the Blagos talking deals on the phone, but in politics, that's what you do. Hell, in any business, that's what you do. And the prosecution has failed to show that the Blagojeviches did anything more than shoot the breeze. And when they even thought about doing more than that (and all the prosecution has proved are that they had those thoughts), their Ivy League lawyers assured them it was kosher -- no crime to plot, only to act."
A new
Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leads challenger Carly Fiorina (R), 39% to 34%, with 22% undecided.
A new
Public Policy Institute of California poll shows Jerry Brown (D) leads Meg Whitman (R) in the race for governor, 37% to 34%, with 23% undecided.
Despite spending more than $100 million on her campaign so far, Whitman has barely moved the race.
A new
Quinnipiac poll in Florida shows two businessmen without previous political experience have completely changed the dynamics of the gubernatorial and Senate races in the final few weeks.
In the Republican race for governor, Rick Scott (R) leads Bill McCollum (R), 43% to 32%, with another 23% undecided.
In the Democratic race for the U.S. Senate nomination, Jeff Greene (D) has jumped in front of Rep. Kendrick Meek (D), 33% to 23%, with 35% undecided.
Said pollster Peter Brown: "If there was any doubt that enough money can make a political unknown into a front-runner, the Democratic Senate primary and the Republican primary for governor should lay them to rest. Both Greene and Scott have come from nowhere to hold double-digit leads with just a little more than three weeks until the voting."
A new
Braun Research poll in Kentucky's 6th congressional district finds Rep. Ben Chandler (D) with a 14-point lead over challenger Andy Barr (R),46% to 32%, with another 21% undecided.
July 28, 2010
A new
WMUR Granite State Poll shows Kelly Ayotte (R) still holds an 8-point lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D) for U.S. Senate, 45% to 37%, but that's a slide from the 15-point edge she held in April.
Ayotte has seen her favorability drop slightly from 38% in April to 36% now. But her unfavorable rating has more than doubled to 27% since April.
Marc Ambinder argues that the Democratic message strategy for the midterm elections "just sort of came along, thanks to the Tea Party movement, which has invited into politics hecklers and cranks and fairly fringe candidates who are currently hurting the Republican Party in several key states."
The message: "The Republicans want to be mayors of crazy-town. They've embraced a fringe and proto-racist isolationist and ignorant conservative populism that has no solutions for fixing anything and the collective intelligence of a wine flask. This IS offensive and over the top, and the more Democrats repeat it, and the more dumb things some Republican candidates do, the more generally conservative voters who might be thinking a sending a message to Democrats by voting for a Republican will be reminded that the replacement party is even more loony than the party that can't tie its shoes. This is a strategy of delegitimization, not affirmation. It is how you reduce independent turnout."
On the day Florida Republican chair Jim Greer was jailed for alleged fraud, recordings of his phone calls from jail "reveal a bewildered Greer, who had garnered a reputation as a high-rolling party boss. In jail, Greer often didn't know the time, had little clue about the specific charges against him and acknowledged that jail was tough," the
St. Petersburg Times reports.
Greer's wife also gave him some advice.
Said Lisa Greer: "Now listen, there's going to be press all over this. So you smile. You hold your head up high. And don't walk in there like a beaten down dog, you hear?"
Previous Entries
