The American Scene

An ongoing review of politics and culture


"The Conservative Gene" by Robin A. Dembroff

The writer is aggrieved. She is regularly engaged in good conversations that turn sour. Take a friendly dialogue she was having about the appropriate sex education curriculum in public schools. Everyone was behaving admirably, she says, until her interlocutors became privy to her secret: she never attended public school. “If I was home-schooled,” she writes, “I probably had conservative parents, so surely I grew up indoctrinated with Republican propaganda. Upon that logic, my opinion was flagged as the incurably biased but inevitable result of my upbringing.”

She goes on to acknowledge that her opinions were shaped by what she was taught growing up and closely resemble the opinions of her parents. “But if a belief were true, a discriminating person would maintain it,” she argues. In principle, she is absolutely right: It’s problematic to stereotype people based on the circumstances of their upbringing. And being raised with a belief or conviction doesn’t itself make it any less valid.

This is, however, a ten page essay, and certain of its assumptions kept raising my eyebrows. The author writes as if being prejudged, stereotyped, and treated dismissively in political sparring matches are unpleasant experiences that afflict conservatives alone, whereas actually they’re known to every American who ventures outside his or her own subculture. As a reader, I kept wanting to tell her, “Take heart, you aren’t nearly as put upon as you imagine!” Perhaps post-collegiate life will better expose her to this lesson. I am not sure whether she’ll feel better or worse when she discovers that whoever you are, political discourse in the United States is largely an endeavor where people with whom you disagree try to discredit your opinion by flagging it as incurably biased.

Innocence on that point is a great scourge of young conservative writers. Never in human history has a group so advantaged gone so far to cast itself as victim. Ms. Dembroff has a minor and entirely curable case of this affliction, or so it seems from the stories we’re offered — in personal essays, there is always the possibility that a false note is a problem of style rather than substance. Let us begin with her description of the environment where she was home-schooled.

It is said that some people are born with a silver spoon in their mouth; I was born with Rush Limbaugh in my ear. I have conservative Christian parents, grew up in a conservative Christian town, and now attend a conservative Christian university.
My sister, Ellen, and I were home-schooled for almost the entirety of K-12. During that time, we followed curriculum that included Bible and—oh, the scandal!—creation science. To my retrospective amusement, we studied these subjects in a room where a framed photograph of Ronald Reagan hung on the wall… when Reagan wasn’t in office. Pro-life literature, World magazine, and Limbaugh’s bestsellers stood prominently on the shelves, and I even recall enjoying a children’s book titled Ump’s Fwat, which I now realize was an allegorical lesson in the values of free-market capitalism.
I have memories of my mother crying when Clinton was elected (both times)… Both of them seriously considered stocking up on canned goods and toilet paper when Obama clinched the presidency in 2008.

On reading that, I thought, If that’s how she describes home-schooling to people, no wonder they suspect that she’s been indoctrinated by the political beliefs of her parents! Isn’t it rational to mistrust an educational environment if all the information you’re given about it is ideological? And that its teacher cried over a presidential election? I’d ask the author to imagine meeting a 22 year old who described his home-schooling experience in Berkeley, California. If told only that his family’s bookshelves held The Communist Manifesto, The People’s History of the United States, pro-choice literature, The Nation magazine, an allegorical children’s book that taught socialism, and a framed Trotsky portrait — and that the teacher cried the day Ralph Nader lost in 2000 — would she wonder if the student emerged with an incomplete perspective?

Other times I wondered whether the author’s peers were even as antagonistic to home schooling as she believed them to be. Consider another scene. Dembroff is at a local community college, where she gets into a conversation about whether marijuana should be legalized. “You wouldn’t want the cops crashing your parties,” a fellow student said.

She replied that she didn’t care much, never having thrown or attended those kinds of parties.

“But you’ve smoked pot, right?” he demanded. “There’s no way you got through high school without trying pot.”

“I’m still in high school,” she said. “I’m home schooled — I’m taking community college classes for high school credit.”

His response: “Oh.”

She writes, “His tone had been tight and defensive, nearing an exasperated squeak. It instantly relaxed. ‘Oh.’ In that one sound echoed a lengthy verdict: Well it all makes sense now. You’re homeschooled. You don’t know how things are, and you probably parrot anything your parents tell you.”

I wasn’t there. Maybe I’m wrong. But I can’t help but wonder if just maybe the ‘oh’ had a different subtext, maybe something like, “Oh, you’re in high school! You’re younger than I thought. And I’m in college. Though I was in high school just a couple years ago myself, ever since I arrived here, I’ve felt so much older and more experienced than those high school kids. Funny how quickly we college kids feel superior, isn’t it? No wonder you don’t worry about your parties getting busted for weed. You still live with your parents!”

Of course, this example is also faulty on the merits. Much as home-schooled high school students from conservative religious families are entitled to their opinion of marijuana legalization, having smoked the substance oneself — or even being around a lot of other people doing so — is arguably relevant to the debate. Put on the show Who Wants To Be A Millionaire, I’d definitely call a home-schooler for help on a question about Greek philosophy.

But a question about the social effects of smoking marijuana? I’ll take an audience full of secular public high school graduates, thanks!

The next example of anti-conservative animus occurs as the author attends an anti-abortion rally on a college campus. “Have you ever had sex?” a counter-protester asks. “After you’ve been a single mother on the street you can come back with your right wing religious trash.” On substance, I agree with the author: this is an unkind, wrongheaded thing to say. But come on. Abortion is the most fraught issue in American life. Few people on either side of the debate are cool-headed and rational when it’s being discussed. The sort of guy who picks abortion arguments with people protesting on the street is still less likely to engage in rational conversation. This doesn’t say something larger about prejudice against conservatives or religious people or pro-lifers or home schoolers. The lesson to take away here is about the contentious nature of the abortion debate.

In some circles, being a conservative has a stigma, as does being religious. I’ve heard people scoff at home-schooling too. It’s a shame. I’m against this sort of prejudging.
The author says that in her hometown, Visalia, California, there are more churches than cars (this is not literally true) and there are residents “who think that any Californian south of Bakersfield is a Los Angeles liberal, and anyone north of Fresno is a Bay Area hippie.” She attends a college whose Web site affirms that “all faculty, staff and students are professing Christians.” I happen to have visited Visalia, and I know several people whose alma mater is Biola. Like every other subculture in America, the people within them — many are conservative and Christian — prejudge people unlike them, and too easily dismiss political arguments contrary to their own.

I’d be very sympathetic to an essay complaining about these pathologies generally. I do not understand why such an essay should instead focus on the plight of home-schoolers from the right side of the ideological spectrum, especially if Dembroff’s victimhood is nothing more than what is described in the essay’s anecdotes.

Why Do Music Critics Love Kanye West?

Slate‘s Jonah Weiner dares to use the B-word — “best” — in declaring that Kanye West’s new record, My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy, is not just the best album of the year, but the best of West’s career. Serious critics tend not to use the word easily, but West’s album seems to be inspiring similar accolades all over; Pitchfork blessed it with a rare 10.0, and its current Metacritic score is an impressive 98. It’s as close as pop records come to a universal critical hit.

I tend to agree with those singing the album’s praises, and if I were still reviewing records regularly, I’d have issued a big fat rave. Fantasy is as rich and grand and satisfying as pop music gets these days, or ever really, and the primal, heart-wrenching melancholy that’s built into its foundation only makes it more compelling. As far as I’m concerned, after a dozen-odd listens, it’s an instant classic and a work of near-perfect pop art.

But I’ve written before about the arbitrariness of pop music criticism, which seems to have far fewer clear and recognizable standards than, say, movie criticism, or lit crit. Thanks in part to the walls between genres, it’s far more subjective. And thanks to a variety of incentives and cultural norms, music criticism tends to issue a lot of “pretty goods” and relatively few ratings of “this completely sucks,” at least in comparison with movies or novels or plays.

When you read pop music criticism, you’re not really seeing a record or a song measured on some roughly understood and agreed upon set of critical criteria. You’re finding out whether or not a certain critic or publication liked it. There’s just nothing like a universal scale, or even a handful of competing aesthetics. Sure, pop songs often rely on formulas. But pop criticism is much less standardized. The closest you get are different schools of criticism based around different publications — Rolling Stone or Pitchfork or Stereogum*. But even those aesthetic schools typically reflect the choices of some founder or editor or other influential figure.

So it’s strange, then, to come upon an album like Fantasy that pretty much every critic who writes about pop music regularly agrees is not just pretty good but stand-up-and-cheer great. And that brings me to what I’m really interested in with this post: speculating as to why Fantasy pleases so many music critics and music-critic-types (this is where I note that my first writing gig was reviewing a dozen or so records every quarter for the now-defunct indie-rock journal Skyscraper). Obviously it’s impossible to know for sure — this won’t be a data-driven post — but my guess is that most critics start with a genuine love for the form. Not just for innovation and experimentation, but for pop songcraft, in a strictly formulaic sense.

But of course, over the years, as a critic or music geek, you tend to hear thousands and thousands of variations upon that form. Most of them are pretty unmemorable at best. A lot of them are just okay, no more no less, which makes sense given that there’s a time-tested formula involved. And even the stuff that’s just fine is less exciting given that you hear so much of it, day in and day out. Which is why there’s a good chance that you end up turning to a lot of experimental acts that really push the boundaries of the form, and probably break them pretty frequently. But there’s a limited amount of satisfaction in breaking the form, because, when it comes down to it, what you want is the classic form delivered in some wholly new, artful, and unexpected way. And when it comes to pop music, that’s pretty much what Kanye West specializes in. He’s mixing hip-hop and indie-rock irony and lush pop and any number of other influences into something that’s both highly original and highly accessible. The only other current act that comes to mind that does this as well is Radiohead (though you can see elements of this in acts as varied as Nine Inch Nails, Dismemberment Plan, Jay-Z, and Sufan Stevens). And what both acts end up doing is fulfilling that innate desire of just about every cynical, cranky, jaded critic who’s heard it all — every variation, every innovation, every hook and every production trick and every effort to make something old seem fresh — to somehow fall in love with the form again.

*I thought about adding Spin to the list, but I’m not sure the magazine has ever developed a recognizable musical aesthetic. And no, something-other-than-Rolling-Stone doesn’t count.

Economics and Abstraction, ctd.

I wrote a post arguing that much of the economics profession’s asserted confidence about its ability to forecast the effect of certain kinds of policy interventions is unwarranted, and that this problem is especially acute for predicting long-term effects. Karl Smith, an economics professor who blogs at Modeled Behavior, responded somewhat critically. (Reihan Salam weighed in as well.) I then replied to Smith.

Smith has now replied to me again. If you are at all interested in the question of the reliability of the knowledge produced by economics, I think it is worth reading his latest post in full. I complement him for being willing to engage on this at length, and in a spirit of open-minded discussion.

Smith’s latest post begins with this:

Jim Manzi responds to my post. It seems I came off a bit harsher than I intended. Other posts lead me to think that some believe I’m rejecting Manzi’s argument against overconfidence in models. Quite the contrary I am suggesting that academics don’t actually have the level of confidence Manzi and Brooks ascribe.

Fair enough. But if economists don’t really have sufficient confidence in their models to rely upon them, then how do they predict the effects of policies that they propose? Smith goes on to describe this with clarity and candor:

Manzi and Brooks seem to believe that policy advice comes plugging and chugging on the big models but instead it comes from an intuition honed by working with both the simple theoretic models and war gamming the big models. [Bold added]

Smith sounds like a very smart and sensible guy. But if the predictive method is in fact the economist’s intuition rather than some predictive algorithm that can be validated empirically, then how do we know the prediction is reliable? I guess it would help a lot if a given economist had a long track record of making accurate, value-added predictions about the impact of similar interventions – but as I’ve argued at length, it is difficult even to measure the effect of many macroeconomic policy interventions after the fact.

This is crucial. Unless Smith can demonstrate that his intuition can actually predict the effect of such interventions more reliably than some alternative method, then all we have is his opinion that macro model X is useful, or that war-gaming exercise Y is relevant, or that X and Y should be combined using method Z (which can’t even be defined explicitly if it’s intuition).

What Smith is describing here is intelligent and data-driven theory-building. What’s missing is the part where the theory is tested, and proven to be reliable.

In other words: You say that you have the ability to predict the effect of stimulus. Prove it.

At the end of his post, Smith goes into the specific example issue that I used in my original post to try to illustrate some of the enormous difficulties that formal economic forecasting of stimulus must confront. My example was basically that if we execute a policy that creates greater economic activity today, this will lead to a set of investments that otherwise would not have happened, and this will in turn change the alternatives available to us in future periods. The term for this general idea is path dependence. I argued that path dependence might turn out to have effects on total long run economic output that are significantly positive, significantly negative, or not material one way or the other.

Smith, in his original reply, said that things like this would make no difference:

For example, if you asked what effect would properly done fiscal stimulus today have on the economy 20 years from now, the fairly easy and straight forward answer is, none.

Stimulus is not central planning or industrial policy. It should have no lasting effects. If it does, then you did it wrong.

In his latest reply, he says this:

Thus monetary policy should have no large predictable effects on the economy. There are always butterfly effect type stories we could tell – a crucial company getting funding at just the right time, etc – but from our perspective this is white noise. We could just as easily crush the butterfly as set him free.

If Smith means the first sentence literally as written – that there should be no large predictable effects on the economy – then I obviously agree, as this is a simple restatement of what I have said. I’ll assume, subject to correction, that what Smith means by this paragraph is something like the following: The net path dependent effect of a stimulus action on total economic output over a period of decades is drawn randomly from a conceptual distribution that (i) is centered around zero, and (ii) will not produce impacts that are of material size.

If that’s a roughly correct interpretation, then it’s not at all obvious to me that it’s true. My request to Smith is, once again, simple: Prove it.

Economics and Abstraction, ctd.

Karl Smith at the Modeled Behavior blog has responded to my recent post on the problems in using some kinds of economic theory to guide policy interventions. His reaction is critical, to put it mildly. It also seems to me to be an almost perfect illustration of the attitude that I was trying to describe.

Smith begins by saying that I have some “wrong ideas” about economics, and then quotes this portion of my post:

In practice, the problem of excessive abstraction by economic theory that Brooks identifies becomes increasingly severe as we try to evaluate the effects of proposed interventions and programs over years and decades, rather than months and quarters.

He then immediately says this about it:

First, this is backwards. With cyclical policy its generally speaking easier to access the effect of interventions over longer and longer horizons because the economy increasingly resembles a frictionless market as you extend time in to the future.

For example, if you asked what effect would properly done fiscal stimulus today have on the economy 20 years from now, the fairly easy and straight forward answer is, none.

Stimulus is not central planning or industrial policy. It should have no lasting effects. If it does, then you did it wrong. What’s more difficult is the short run.

Unless he is using “properly done” as tautologically implying his conclusion, then I’m not so sure he’s right about this.

A stimulus action is designed to change behavior in the real world – some investment decisions must change. Imagine, as an illustrative example, that a stimulus program in country X executed in 1820 resulted in the digging of a large number of canals that otherwise would not have been constructed. This makes incremental investment in shipping capacity and development of improved shipping technology more attractive over the next several decades than it would otherwise have been, as compared to the development of land-based transport systems. X then develops a greater reliance on ship than rail transport. This leads to some gains beyond what was unanticipated in 1820. Over the succeeding decades, X becomes a world leader in the shipping industry; by 1850, total output in country X is higher than it would have been had no canals been dug.

Countries that had not built early canal networks invest relatively more building out rail networks, just as X would have done had it not built all those canals in 1820. When, hypothetically, a set of technical innovations occur, it becomes suddenly apparent in the second half of the 19th century that rail is now a superior form of transport. Country X finds itself behind, and by 1880, total economic output is significantly below where it otherwise would have been. Further, increased competition with a neighboring country over shipping lanes leads to escalating tensions, finally resulting in a full-scale war in 1890 that would not have occurred had X’s shipping industry been smaller, which further reduces total output.

Of course, the exact opposite situation could have obtained, in which the decisions changed by the stimulus action turned out to position the society unexpectedly well for future developments through the end of the 19th century. It’s also possible that, as per Smith’s assertion, that building all those canals would have turned out to have had no material effect after decades.

But how could any of this be predictable in 1820 when making the stimulus decision? For that matter, how could we even know after the fact in 1890 what the effect of this decision was on total output, since this would require that we know what the counterfactual path of development would have been in the absence of the stimulus?

Changing, for example, the rate of economic activity today will lead to changes in actual investment decisions taken today in the context of the opportunities that are perceived to be available today. This will to some extent, and potentially to a material extent, change the array of choices available to us in the future. Professor Smith’s confident assertions notwithstanding, this change in the future option set may or may not change total future output materially. I believe the fancy name for all of this is path dependence.

"Pursuing Happiness" By Joseph Ashby

In modest enough fashion, Joseph Ashby recounts the ordinary but nevertheless impressive story of how he and his wife worked full time while putting themselves through college during the first year of their marriage. Despite all that, they were “resolved not to let schooling keep us from starting a family,” he remembers, so aside from classes he worked as a landscaper, she answered phones at a customer service center, and they conceived a child. “Our plan was simple: put in the heavy work hours while we could, pay off the car, set aside money for the pending baby, and save as much as we could after that,” he writes, so they got rid of their cell phones, washed clothing in the tub to save trips to the laundromat, studied rather than getting a full night’s sleep, spent long Saturdays mowing lawns, and otherwise lived as ascetic an existence as they could.

Baby arrived! Sleep declined. Then tax time came, and “we felt like something had to be wrong. Our tax liability (mostly payroll) was more than we had paid in rent over the entire year…” The experience caused the author to set out on a quest “to answer certain fundamental questions about government.” This being a book of essays about conservatism, you can imagine his conclusion: the tax burden is too high. It’s a perfectly defensible conclusion. But the faulty logic that Ashby employs to get there is problematic, especially if he hopes to persuade an educated audience of non-conservatives that he is right.

The essay’s personal narrative is weakened by the fact that a married couple with a child and both husband and wife qualifying as full-time students don’t actually face a particularly high tax burden, especially if they are making a typical customer service and landscaping wage. Later in the essay, the author includes something he would regard as explaining away this objection. “Once the taxes were collected, we faced the demoralizing option of returning to the government to beg for the money back through Pell Grants, Earned Income Credit, food stamps, Medicaid, or other programs,” he writes. “Our sustenance and prosperity were de-linked from our own faculties and effort and tied to a bureaucrat’s actuarial table.” Given the social stigma associated with food stamps, I understand how the prospect of applying for them might demoralize someone (though again, if you’re eligible for food stamps your tax burden is relatively low). What I find hard to accept is that it’s demoralizing to apply for a Pell Grant or to file for the earned income tax credit, or that doing so is tantamount to begging. It struck me as particularly weird that the author would feel like a beggar simply for seeking the return of assets that, by his logic, were illegitimately taken.

Here we arrive at the weakness in the author’s principled argument. In his telling, he delved into various works of political philosophy, and “two principal worldviews emerged in every case: According to the first philosophy, a just society could only exist if its members had the right to do what they wished with what they earned. The second philosophy dictated that for a just society to exist, some of what people earned must be taken so that all could be maintained in relative economic equality.”

I submit that this binary isn’t very useful.

The first philosophy would seem to prohibit taxation entirely in a just society. The second philosophy is too vague to be usefully descriptive — what exactly is relative economic equality? — but however defined, neither worldview describes very well the philosophy that is the reigning consensus among many Americans: put roughly, some redistribution is justified to care for the least well off, but beyond that debt to society people are by and large free to keep what they earn and spend money on what they wish. The devil is in the details, and there are intense disagreements about degree, but it’s a glaring omission when you don’t include a middle ground so big it encompasses John F. Kennedy and Milton Friedman.

Articulating his own philosophy, the author seems to reject the social safety net and all redistributive welfare spending on principle. “The money we earned wasn’t just ours, it was us; an extension of who we were no less than fingers are an extension of a hand,” he writes. “The vision described by President Roosevelt relied upon taking the sweat of one man’s brow and giving it to another as his own. Cries of necessity merely served as a smokescreen, covering up the true nature of a redistributive system.” This is evasive nonsense. Read any semi-complete history of the Great Depression. The “cries of necessity” weren’t mere smokescreen! And redistributive policies passed by Congress in that era not because people were evading the true nature of redistribution, but because they directly confronted what the United States would be like absent any of it.

Several lines later, Abraham Lincoln is invoked, decrying men who take other men’s labor—thus slavery is implicitly equated with paying into the welfare state. This last portion of the essay is sufficiently vague that the reader is left unclear about whether the author would really embrace the full implications of his theory. If pressed, I suspect he’d concede that, even in principle, a minimal amount of social welfare spending financed by redistributive taxes is better than allowing people without food to starve to death, or handicapped orphans to die on the streets from exposure. But his stated positions don’t allow for that.

I raise these examples not to vilify Ashby, or to score a cheap debating point, but to highlight the problem with essays about taxation that go no farther than vague statements of poorly conceived first principles. The impulse is understandable: there is self-evident truth in the notion that humans have an individual right to the fruits of their labor. Once a concession is made that any redistribution is justified, the purist fears that the whole game is over — suddenly the argument is over the appropriate scope of the redistributive welfare state.

As a practical matter, however, all is lost for people like Ashby. You’ll be hard pressed to find people — even staunch conservatives — who favor an end to all redistribution by government. Perhaps this widespread consensus, which has endured for many generations, is mistaken. I certainly want to encourage writers of all people to stand on principle, even if it means mounting radical challenges to current arrangements in the society we share. But if that’s your project, have the courage to confront its full implications: impoverished Americans relying on charities that, if the whole of history is any guide, won’t meet all their needs; a wholesale re-organization of American government; massive social upheaval as the country adjusts to the new status quo; and that’s not a comprehensive list.

Ashby gives us something different — an impressive personal story of self-reliance and delayed gratification that anyone in a similar position would do well to emulate, followed by a principled argument against redistribution whose full implications he doesn’t nearly confront. As a result, I cannot help but wonder if the author has failed to grapple with the practical consequences of the ideas he espouses, seeming to reject most taxation and social welfare, but never acknowledging what it would mean to reorganize America in that fashion, because he cannot actually defend everything it would entail. If he is inclined to respond, I’d encourage him to either grapple with the most unpleasant consequences of his ideas, or else to find arguments for lowering the tax burden that he actually believes.

(Previous entries in this series are here and here.)

Economics and Abstraction

David Brooks has a great column in the New York Times arguing that technocratic management of the economy leaves something to be desired. He particularly focuses on the growing disillusion with attempts to manage our response to the economic crisis. My favorite part is this:

The liberal technicians have an impressive certainty about them. They have amputated those things that can’t be contained in models, like emotional contagions, cultural particularities and webs of relationships. As a result, everything is explainable and predictable. They can stand on the platform of science and dismiss the poor souls down below.

Yet over the past 21 months, it has been harder to groove to their certainty.

In practice, the problem of excessive abstraction by economic theory that Brooks identifies becomes increasingly severe as we try to evaluate the effects of proposed interventions and programs over years and decades, rather than months and quarters.

Consider the role of very low interest rates in stimulating economic growth in the software industry where I work. Easy monetary policy, along with various other forms of stimulus, has at least in part, likely worked as advertised; it has likely stimulated some extremely-difficult-to-quantify general economic growth, which has in turn created demand for enterprise software, among many other things. And low interest rates probably have resulted in certain additional development projects within large companies being greenlighted because they face a lower discount rate. In fact, many traditional large enterprise software companies have built large cash hoards. But they are mostly using them to finance acquisitions, not to expand capacity and increase aggregate output. Why this is so turns out to be important for understanding the potential effects of this policy on the industry.

The biggest reason is that a series of disruptive technical / business model innovations – most prominently, Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) and open-source – is transforming the industry. The rational incentive of the incumbent managers is to suppress the innovations, and at best, slow-walk them and channel them in directions consistent with their current business models. What’s happening right now is the jockeying between entrepreneurs, incumbent company management teams and the capital markets to seize the potential value that these innovations are unleashing.

Large company growth will disproportionately come not from just adding more of the current “capacity” (mostly people) in response to stimulus, but different kinds of capacity that are required for these new business models. For example, more software engineers trained in traditional languages and accustomed to working on large, structured projects are less useful for growth than engineers with experience in web-focused technologies used to working in a so-called agile development environment. And it’s not as simple as incumbent companies simply changing their hiring specs, because it is very difficult to transform settled company expertise, systems, compensation plans, culture and so forth to operate in this new environment.

Large software companies do not have plans on the drawing boards for the moral equivalent of a new ball-bearing factory if only demand were higher – their primary strategic problem is this regard is that they don’t know how to build the new capacity. But the existence of the competitive threat forces their hand, and they buy the new kind of capacity in the form of corporate acquisitions.

One major effect of a Fed policy of easy money, then, is that large software companies can go borrow lots of money cheaply, and then use this acquire entrepreneurial companies that usually require more equity financing rather than debt financing. This does not add capacity to world, but simply transfers management control over some very important assets from entrepreneurs to incumbents.

Will this lead to higher or lower economic output in 2015, 2020 and 2030? I don’t know. But then again, neither does anybody else.

The example I have chosen to highlight focuses on the complications in trying to forecast the impact of lower interest rates in the software industry created by the emergence of new technologies and business models. But of course, there are many other complicated effects of very low interest rates on the software industry beyond simply pumping up aggregate demand – impacting everything from the feasibility of leveraged buy-outs to the re-opening of the IPO window. Each will advantage or disadvantage some part so the industry at the expense of others. And stimulus can be anything from low interest rates to running deficits to quantitative easing. And the software industry in one small part of the overall economy. So this is an example of one complication for one type of stimulus in one industry.

Where is any of this complexity captured in econometric models that purport to explain how fiscal deficits, interest rates and quantitative easing are driving everything from car dealerships to television broadcasters to consumers of dog food, all of whom face their own unique dynamics? But without it, I doubt the ability of any model to forecast the long-run impacts of a multi-trillion dollar program to intervene in the economy in the name of creating self-sustaining growth in the long -term. All I can say with confidence is that if you believe as I do that a good rough rule-of-thumb is that “over any sustained period markets supported b y an appropriate culture will do a better job than politicians in allocating resources to generate high economic growth,” then at some point, the distortions created by such a policy would likely outweigh any benefits it can create.

In an emergency, the idea of stimulus is not an inherently bad one; in fact, I have advocated it in certain circumstances. But it is inherently dangerous. Its effects are at best only extremely loosely predictable in the short-run; it is addictive; and it is likely pernicious if sustained.

From at least the time of J.S. Mill, the fundamental methodology of economics has been to use introspection to develop theories about human behavior, systematize them into theories, and then try to compare the predictions of these theories to the real world. For reasons I have gone into at boring length, it is very difficult to conduct such tests of useful, non-obvious rules that predict the effects of our proposed interventions reliably in economics and other social sciences. The big problem with most economic theories that claim to be able to guide our interventions with confidence is not usually that the causal pathway that they propose is incorrect, but that it’s radically incomplete. It is typically one of an all-but-innumerable array of causes that are interconnected in a maze of causation that produces highly unpredictable outcomes as a result of any intervention. Despite confident assertions by academicians, the Law of Unintended Consequences remains in force.

Taking Her Seriously

In light of Matthew Continetti’s latest blog post about Sarah Palin, her presidential aspirations, and the media’s treatment of those subjects, I’d like to reiterate a question I posed but that he never answered: Do you, Matthew Continetti, think that Sarah Palin is qualified to be President of the United States?

And why not add a few more specific inquiries while we’re at it. Would you be comfortable with Sarah Palin as Commander In Chief of the United States Armed Forces? What do you regard as the most insightful direct quotation she has ever uttered? In the whole of her time in public life what is her most impressive policy achievement? During a foreign policy crisis, is she the Republican you’d most trust to lead the country? Is she in the top five? The top ten? The top twenty? If you were the owner of five Applebee’s restaurants in California’s Inland Empire, would you trust the managerial capacity of Sarah Palin enough to put them in her care while you took an extended vacation abroad? We know how seriously you take Sarah Palin as a candidate. How seriously do you take her as a policymaker? A diplomat? A responsible steward of civil liberties? An interviewee in foreign media outlets where she is the face of America? Pending a response, I’ll continue to find it telling that Sarah Palin’s most prolific defender in the American media has no answer for these questions.

"The Politics Of Authenticity" by Matthew Lee Anderson

In Proud To Be Right’s opening essay, social conservative Matthew Lee Anderson shows us the 2008 GOP primary through the eyes of young, politically active social conservatives — a group that began election supporting Mitt Romney, the most electable seeming candidate, but were ultimately won over by authenticity of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. In Lee’s telling, these young voters, though ardently pro-life, are very much anti-torture, more concerned with the ethics of war than stem cell policy, and motivated by a desire to protect the human rights of immigrants more than the border and culture of the United States.

He ascribes these priorities to the prosperous economic times in which his generation grew up, and especially the travel abroad that it experienced: Once you’ve gone on a church group trip to sub-Saharan Africa or Latin America your outlook changes. What the young people of his acquaintance share with their socially conservative parents, however, is a jaded expectation that politicians will exploit their support during election season, only to betray them on issues of the utmost importance, as so many have done before.

“For most of my friends, the appearance of being ‘authentic’ was more important than the candidate’s actual policy positions,” he wrote. “We want to know whether our leaders are the ‘real deal,’ or whether they are simply pandering.”

With his folksy manner, rhetoric drawn from the bible, and long record in public office, Huckabee won over these young voters at the grassroots level, though “social conservative leaders dithered.” Being a Huckabee supporter was therefore difficult, Anderson recalls, due to the candidate’s poor treatment in conservative media, biblical rhetoric that Anderson deems better suited to a previous age of American oratory, and an inability to expand his appeal beyond the evangelical base. “Those limitations partially explain the phenomenal appeal of the light that eclipsed him, Sarah Palin,” the author writes. “Palin’s personal narrative, ease, and authenticity all made her extremely likable to most Americans, and grounded our faith and trust in her. But unlike Huckabee, Palin introduced the possibility of a conservative with traditional social values who knew how to articulate them without potentially offensive religious overtones.”

There is much to like about Lee’s essay, but what is the reader to make of this turn? Most glaring is the error of fact. Contrary to the author’s assertion, Sarah Palin is not “extremely likable to most Americans.” In fact, she has a zealous fan base that likes her extremely, but polls indicate that roughly half of the country views her unfavorably. At best, she is wildly divisive, far more so than Mike Huckabee. It is curious that an informed observer of American politics so misunderstands the stated opinions of his fellow citizens.

Anderson never completely reveals whether or not he is a fan of former Governor Palin, but his account of her supporters suggests that they’re making a grave error in judgment. If you’re upset about being perennially fooled by slick politicians who always break their promises, it is a strange response indeed to pick future candidates based mostly on an assessment of their authenticity, the very quality you’ve long been unable to correctly identify! What exactly makes these people confident that they won’t be fooled again?

Every presidential candidate employs a team of image makers, speechwriters, handlers and strategists whose job is to conjure whatever qualities voters are defining as “authentic” that election cycle. That Mitt Romney can’t fool anyone despite his machinations isn’t evidence that other charlatans are as easily identified, any more than spotting a brown tree snake implies an ability to see the chameleons spread about the same trunk.

Social conservatives ought to know by now that no one is able to identify an authentic politician by the speeches they give or the various cultural cues they exude. The best bet is backing political champions based upon the public policy measures they’ve actually supported in the past, and the most specific pledges possible about their future behavior. By that measure, Sarah Palin is a wild gamble on every issue save abortion and special needs kids, whereas a multi-term governor like Mike Huckabee, perfectly trustworthy on those issues, is a more known quantity on many other matters besides.

The most peculiar thing about the affinity of social conservatives for Sarah Palin is that they despise John McCain, distrusting him as much as any other Republican in the Senate… but are completely unbothered by the fact that he was championed by Palin not only on the campaign trail in 2008, but also in his 2010 bid to be re-elected to the Senate. Fellow mavericks! Ask a Palin supporter about this. They’ll usually reply that she was just being loyal to the man who helped establish her on the national scene. Put another way, Palin acted like a typical career politician by supporting someone not based on shared convictions, but because that person helped to advance her career. In other contexts, that sort of quid pro quo is held up as representing everything that is wrong with politics.

Near the conclusion to his essay, Anderson writes of social conservatives that “our politics—of both generations—are largely determined by our implicit trust our lack thereof in our candidates.” I’d ask him this question. Given the repeated inability of socially conservative voters to accurately assess the authenticity of their candidates, why should the rest of us give any weight to the outcome of events like the Values Voter Summit? Were it a reliable gauge of how a politician would behave in office, it would at least provide valuable information. But if the social conservatives of the past have inadvertently championed faux-authentic hucksters who successfully misled them about how they’d govern — and this experience has resulted in an investment of trust in Sarah Palin because she seems authentic — why should anyone be persuaded by that endorsement?

“The politics of authenticity” isn’t just a theoretically misguided method for choosing electoral candidates to support. It has been demonstrably discredited for decades on end by politicians left and right. So long as grassroots factions on the right decide primaries based on that metric, general election voters are rational to mistrust GOP nominees, as they often do. As Sarah Palin demonstrates better than any living politician, authenticity is in the eye of the beholder.

The Future Of Conservative Journalism Isn't Tom Wolfe

Discussed In This Review:
Proud To Be Right edited by Jonah Goldberg, published by Harper Collins

In the final years of the Bush Administration, the American right began grappling with a devastating reality: after eight years in the White House, majorities for several sessions of Congress, and a Supreme Court largely composed of Republican appointees, the GOP would soon be ousted from power — and its legacy would be a significantly larger federal government, an alarming fiscal crisis, and a squandered reputation for competence in foreign policy. The American people were poised to elect the most liberal president in a generation and a friendly Congress to implement his agenda. Conservatives, libertarians, and right-leaning independents faced the prospect of a long rebuilding process.

Amid this tumult, a few established conservative voices began surveying the next generation of thought leaders on the right, much as fans of a losing sports franchise avoid depression late in the season by focusing on the rookie draft or a promising Minor League pitcher. New York Times columnist David Brooks was the first to issue a scouting report, opining in the summer of 2008 that he’d found “one bright spot” for his ideological team. “Over the past five years, a group of young and unpredictable rightward-leaning writers has emerged on the scene,” he noted in a June column. These heterodox thinkers “did not rise through the official channels of the conservative or libertarian establishments” — they established themselves as credible voices largely through blogging, and that “allowed them to create a new sort of career path and test out opinions without much adult supervision.” A veteran of The Washington Times, The Wall Street Journal, National Review and The Weekly Standard, Brooks seemed to imply that the adult supervision on offer at movement conservatism’s establishment publications was more hindrance than help.

The ten journalists he proceeded to laud in The Gray Lady were unknown to the average American, but they fed my impression that it was an exciting time to be a young, right-leaning writer in Washington, DC. Several were colleagues at The Atlantic, where I was then an intern. By spring, when former Mike Huckabee campaign staffer Joe Carter recruited me to help edit a start-up Web magazine, I played a part in publishing many of the rest. In some ways, my employers at Culture11 were engaged in another effort by established participants in movement conservatism to change its course. The Chairman of the Board at our company was Bill Bennett. Our CEO, former Bush staffer David Kuo, said he hired me on the strength of an essay I’d published arguing that what the right needed wasn’t another William F. Buckley so much as a dozen Tom Wolfes — talented narrative journalists who understood conservative insights, but whose primary aim was furthering the journalistic project rather than undermining it. Our young staff produced a Web magazine with its share of flaws. I like to think its greatest strength was captured by Charles Homans, who profiled our effort in The Washington Monthly. “Culture11’s contributors were often people who also wrote for more ideologically coherent political magazines, environments that encouraged group-think,” he wrote. “What they wrote for Culture11, which encouraged the opposite, was often much smarter.”

We weren’t the only ones offering an alternative to the stultifying confines of establishment conservative journalism. The American Conservative, a paleo-con magazine, regularly published unpredictable, well-edited feature stories, and filled an especially important niche challenging the hawkish foreign policy consensus in the Republican Party. Patrick Ruffini, Jon Henke and others were hosting frank discussions about political strategy at The Next Right. The group blogs Secular Right, Postmodern Conservative, and Front Porch Republic, among many others, were insisting that the mainstream of movement conservatism was flawed in its value system. And that autumn, Washington DC abuzz with election fever, former Bush Administration speechwriter David Frum joined the rebellion against the status quo.

Then a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a writer at National Review Online, Frum saw very early that an Obama victory was likely. In preparation for the future, he gathered in his living room one evening another group of young right-leaning writers, including Eli Lake, James Kirchick, Noah Pollack, and Mary Katherine Ham. He sought reactions to a project he intended to launch: a Web site called New Majority.Com that would begin to do the work of rebuilding the GOP into a viable governing party. He spoke about the political magazines that helped him find conservatism as a youth, his desire that some among today’s high school and college students might be similarly influenced by his Web site, and the dearth of other publications that present a face of conservatism that is appealing to young people. “I’m not relying on it to make any money, and the goals I have for the number of people it’ll reach are modest enough that they’re attainable,” Frum said. “But it’s an ambitious enough project that after the election I’ll be leaving National Review.”

That revelation captured the general mood. It wasn’t that I had anything against NR. It just didn’t speak to me or anyone else in my generation, if only because it had to serve its own largely elderly subscriber base. Aside from the always lively Reason, the occasional superb feature story in The Weekly Standard, and City Journal, a place that shares the urban outlook of my peers at its very core, there wasn’t any right-leaning publication that I looked forward to perusing as a reader (especially once the Claremont Review of Books, a place that also prizes quality, bought into the Bush Administration’s foreign policy, failing to notice that its accumulation of executive power was incompatible with the Founding vision they ostensibly champion). It felt as though you’d find the future of right-leaning journalism outside the CRB and NR—and I added Frum to the list of people wagering money on that proposition.

AS IF TO UNDERSCORE the changing guard in 2008, William F. Buckley had died at the beginning of the year, survived by a son who very publicly supported candidate Barack Obama at the end of it. Under Rich Lowry, already its longtime editor, National Review remained the conservative movement’s flagship publication: less influential in its pronouncements than Rush Limbaugh or Sean Hannity, occasionally publishing suspect material — especially online — but rightly credited with publishing solid pieces too, and maintaining much higher standards than the right’s intellectually dishonest entertainers—not that you could call them out in the print magazine!

Even in the narrower world of conservative letters, NR wasn’t nearly as influential as it once was. Its very success birthing a conservative movement meant sharing readers with a whole right-wing media landscape that didn’t previously exist. And like all decades-old media organizations, technology had spawned innovative competition. In the age of the fax machine, William Kristol launched The Weekly Standard, sending pages to an influential Inside the Beltway audience, en route to creating a national magazine of his own. The Internet saw upstarts of lesser quality like Townhall, Newsmax and World Net Daily challenge NR for the hard right audience, along with a constellation of bloggers for whom the old flagship wasn’t ever hard-nosed enough. Another challenge came from outside the movement: unlike in prior generations, a young right-leaning writer could make a name for himself without getting punched by NR or making peace with its orthodoxies (partly because mainstream publications had become more open to dissenting voices than they once were).

As the Obama Administration began, Andrew Breitbart seized the moment to launch his answer to Gawker Media, running a series of Web sites that would skewer “Big Hollywood” and “Big Government,” just to start. In terms of accuracy, sophistication, and quality of argument, Breitbart’s sites couldn’t nearly compete with the house that Buckley built, but he could pander and provoke more shamelessly — associated only with The Drudge Report and The Huffington Post, his public brand had no reputation for quality or intellectual honesty, so fear of squandering them wasn’t ever an impediment. NR does worry about those things. When less restrained competitors with lower standards and costs attract more attention and readers per editorial dollar spent, it puts the publication in a tough spot.

Despite all this, National Review remains the premier name among conservative magazines. And there is at least one writer and editor there for whom the Web era has proved a tremendous boon: 40-year-old Jonah Goldberg, who was asked to launch National Review Online shortly after joining the magazine in 1998, and deserves much of the credit for its emergence as the single most successful online destination for conservative readers. Along with the capable Rich Lowry, who has the impossible job of publishing a magazine meant to advance a perpetually splintering ideological coalition (while keeping all its factions happy enough to keep subscribing), Goldberg was responsible for getting some brilliant voices into the NR orbit, sometimes alongside hackery that seemed as though it couldn’t have been approved by the same editorial team.

Goldberg especially appealed to younger readers, as one longtime fan in his late twenties explains. “What distinguished Goldberg from the others of his generation at NR/NRO — Lowry is the same age and Ponnuru and K-Lo are actually younger — was that he breathed the same cultural atmosphere I did and wrote about it regularly,” he said. “Perhaps I’ve missed something, but I can’t think of anything cultural the other three have written that sets them generationally apart from WFB or John O’Sullivan. Goldberg is instantly recognizable as someone who was young during the 80s and who enjoyed it.”

Youthful compared to colleagues, a commercially successful author, an accomplished online innovator, Editor At Large at conservatism’s flagship publication after serving as its Web editor — all these qualities made Goldberg particularly suited to offer up his own dossier on the future of conservative journalism. As it turns out, he’s done exactly that.

As editor of the recently released book “Proud To Be Right,” he curated a collection of essays from young right-leaning writers that even skeptics would do well to give a look. Aside from the high quality of the best several pieces, the quality of argument and writing is uneven — more sophisticated briefs for conservatism can certainly be found elsewhere, and I imagine that Brooks, Kuo or Frum, if hired as editors on a similar project, would produce very different volumes, for better or worse.
But the right’s various dissidents seem to share a conviction that it’s now impossible to be loyal to the conservative movement — at least as loyalty is now defined by its membership — and to write wide-ranging, intellectually honest stuff without pulling punches. This makes them good at championing talented writers who don’t fit very well within rigid ideological orthodoxies, and less inclined or able to influence future purveyors of movement journalism.

In contrast, Goldberg would object to the notion that loyalty, as defined by today’s conservative movement, is a strike against a writer’s intellectual honesty. He is a movement lifer.

At his worst, that means acting as an apologist for convenient ideological allies like obvious charlatan Glenn Beck, actively “doing his part” in the spin wars — that’s how the man himself once put it — and responding to much cogent criticism of the right by insisting that liberals are even worse, as if Team Red point-scoring is an important component of his intellectual work. Put another way, Goldberg reflexively sides with ideological allies more often than any writer I completely trust—but contra his staunchest critics, he is also capable of insightful analysis that goes beyond talking points, occasionally offers mild criticism of indefensible behavior by “his own side,” and risks public debates with smart, forceful interlocutors, unlike the Rush Limbaughs of the world.

The man who edited “Proud To Be Right” is Jonah Goldberg at his best. Drawing partly though not entirely from people more loyal to conservatism than to journalism, he has managed to produce a volume of largely well-written, intellectually honest essays that do justice to some of conservatism’s strengths and reflect the diversity of its strains. It certainly includes paragraphs that would be difficult to get into the pages ofNational Review. The essays also lend insight into sides of the ideological movement that unaligned, right-leaning heretics like me regard as recurring, maddening flaws. Its primary value isn’t as a book of arguments; the reader who can most benefit is the one wondering, “What is the world view of young conservative writers in the United States of America? What assumptions under-gird it? And how did they come to their beliefs?”

Taken as a whole, the most confusing thing about the book is its intended audience. In the introduction, Goldberg applauds its contributors for their senses of humor, optimistic spirits, and grasp of human experience, writing that “this volume was intended to show—rather than tell—that, in fact, conservatives are people too.” Set aside the wisdom of that goal. The implication is that the book is meant to convert non-conservatives, or at least to instill in them a higher opinion of young people on the right. So why is the cover art red, white, and blue, the title “Proud To Be Right,” and “edited and with an introduction by… bestselling author of Liberal Fascism” the pitch on the cover? One can imagine it on the table at Barnes and Noble alongside George W. Bush’s memoir and Glenn Beck’s latest — another illustration of the tension between the imperatives of Conservative Inc. and the ideological project it’s ostensibly advancing.

If you’re among the subset of the book-buying public put off by such packaging, I’d urge you to look past it. Oh, you’ll vehemently disagree with parts of the book, and roll your eyes at several others, but it’s a paperback, and the polished essays by James Poulos, Michael Brendan Dougherty, James Kirchick and Helen Rittelmeyer alone justify the price. Almost everyone in the collection is someone I’d contact about writing for me if I were still commissioning pieces for Culture11, some with more suggestions for improvement than others. They’ve produced work worthy of serious critique and engagement, something that cannot be said for a large part of each year’s Regnery catalog. So I intend to address several of their essays in subsequent posts, offering to air their rebuttals in an update or follow-up. If commenters have the book, perhaps they can ask questions too, and push back against my assumptions and arguments.

In another essay, I could tell a long story about the evolution of my thinking about journalism and its compatibility with ideological movements. I’ve written elsewhere that The Atlantic’s motto, “Of no party or clique,” seems to me the best attitude, and it won’t surprise any regular readers that I’m a great fan of almost everyone on David Brooks’ list of heterodox conservatives, several of whom either wrote or still write here at The American Scene. I very much hope that they’re prominent in the future of opinion journalism. If we’re realistic about the limits of ideological journalism on the right, the contributors on offer in Proud To Be Right represent an optimist’s glimpse at the future of conservative journalism.

Should any of its contributors choose to accept employment within the confines of the conservative movement, I hope they’ll retain their willingness to challenge the status quo, or at least be given many chances elsewhere to do work that is smarter and more interesting. Goldberg deserves enormous credit for giving them one such opportunity.

UPDATE:

Essay 1, “The Politics of Authenticity” by Matthew Lee Anderson, is discussed here.

Essay 2, “Pursuing Happiness” by Joseph Ashby, is discussed here.

Jon Stewart Talks To Rachel Maddow

Some really interesting exchanges.

When California Flirted With Fascism

On several occasions, I’ve recommended Kevin Starr’s multi-volume history of California. Here’s a passage that is particularly striking, from page 176 of Endangered Dreams:

In early 1935 the City of Los Angeles established a Committee on Indigent Alien Transients, which reflected the bias of the city. Astonishingly, the committee openly defined an indigent alien transient ‘as being a transient entering the state of California without visible means of support and whose legal residence is foreign to the state of California.’ Thus the Committee, for all practical purposes, took California out of the Union. The City of Los Angeles would soon attempt to seize control of the state.
Long skilled in the techniques of rousting transients out of town after jailing them on vagrancy charges, the Los Angeles Police Department played an important role on the committee, on which the deputy chief of police sat as chairman. On 4 November 1935 the Committee on Indigent Alien Transients issued a report calling for the establishment of checkpoints manned by police and health officials at every major point of entry into the state. Transients who could not prove California residence, the report recommended, should be put into camps, preferably operated by the State Relief Administration, where they would be fingerprinted and their backgrounds checked for a criminal record. The report also called for “Vagrancy Penal Camps” for transients arrested on vagrancy charges. These penal camps would serve as labor pools for work upon roads, parks, and other public projects. Police should monitor all common carriers, railroads especially, and all main arterial highways in an effort to apprehend indigent alien transients seeking to enter the state. State and local officials, meanwhile, should form a statewide committee to supervise these activities: an extra-parliamentary task force responsible for sealing off the borders of California from transient migration.
Not surprisingly, these recommendations, offered with a straight face—with their suggestion of checkpoints, of preemptive arrests of those whose only crime was being poor in the Great Depression, of fingerprinting in forced labor camps, and, worse, of Vagrancy Penal Camps where thousands might be concentrated—did not meet with universal acceptance throughout the state. As paranoid as mainstream California might have become, it was not yet ready for such an unconstitutional, police state program.
Encouraged by local oligarchs, together with the City Council and the County Board of Supervisors, Los Angeles Police Chief James Davis, a spit-and-polish officer, resplendent in shiny black riding boots and a Sam Browne belt, brushed aside any constitutional scruples, of which the chief had few, and decided to go it alone. On 3 February 1936 Chief Davis dispatched 126 LAPD officers to sixteen crucial highway and railroad entry points throughout the state with orders to turn back any and all indigent transients who could not prove California residence. Within days, the Foreign Legion of Los Angeles, as it was soon called, had established checkpoints along the Oregon border in Del Norte, Siskiyou, and Modoc counties; in the central Sierra Nevada counties of Plumas, Lassen, Nevada, and Mono; in the city of Independence in Inyo County, and across the southern desert in the counties of San Bernardino, riverside, and Imperial. To maintain a semblance of legality, Chief Davis requested that his officers be locally deputized, which the sheriff of Del Norte County refused to do.

Among other things, this passage is a reminder that the current recession isn’t actually very much like The Great Depression, and that as astonishingly bad as today’s state and local officials are they’re not nearly so stark raving mad as the LAPD of old.

What We Talk About When We Talk About Productivity

I talk about how “we need higher productivity” a lot, so I should probably clarify what I mean by that.

Productivity is output divided by input. If you get more economic output with the same number of input labor hours, productivity has grown. Similarly, if you get the same amount of economic output from fewer worked hours, productivity has grown. And if you get the same amount of economic output from more worked hours, productivity has shrunk.

But here’s the thing. Worked hours is an aggregate figure. Individuals who work zero hours are not contributing any labor inputs, but they are still “on the books” as people who consume a portion of the national income. Rising unemployment and underemployment can appear to be increasing national productivity, but whether that’s truly the case depends on where these workers end up once the economic climate improves.

Compare two situations of countries entering recessions. As the first country enters recession, businesses begin to lay people off. Partly this is due to a need to reduce output in the face of lower demand, but partly it is due to pressure to maintain profits when sales are stagnant or falling; the only way to do that is to “do more with less” – i.e., increase productivity. So the business will lay off marginally productive employees and rationalize a variety of processes and wind up with a more productive workforce. Multiply this across the economy, and you wind up with a higher unemployment rate, and negative economic growth, but a sharp rise in labor productivity. This is what usually happens: when unemployment rises, productivity does as well.

Now let’s look at the second country. As it enters recession, it faces the same pressures. But it has strong laws and/or norms against layoffs. So businesses retain more workers than they really need. But sales and profits are still falling. So the businesses in this country cut costs by reducing the hours and/or wages of their employees rather than laying off marginal workers. In aggregate, because less-productive workers are retained, the businesses in this country will produce less output per labor input. Multiply this across the economy, and this second country will have a lower unemployment rate and lower labor productivity.

But is that “really” the case? Is the second country’s economy “really” less productive? A proper measure of productivity would account not only for the drag of retaining less-productive workers, but also the drag on the economy of having to support people who aren’t working at all. The productivity measure that makes perfect sense for an individual firm makes very little sense for the economy as a whole because you can’t lay people off from an entire economy. People who are completely unproductive – because they don’t generate any output at all – aren’t a drag on any individual business, but they are a drag on the economy as a whole.

The case for not following the second country’s path isn’t that in the depths of the recession their economy is less productive. In fact, the second country is probably doing better in the middle of the recession even though their productivity statistics look worse. The case is that once the economy recovers, the first country will retain its productivity gains, and the unemployed workers will be reabsorbed into the workforce in more productive roles than they would have had in the second country’s situation, and that this effect will overwhelm the drag associated with temporary unemployment. But that’s an empirical question that will be tested once the economy recovers. It’s not something that can simply be assumed.

Let’s take another illustrative example. Assume for the sake of argument that, on average, people over age 62 are less productive than people under age 62. Now suppose one country has a retirement age of 62 and another has a retirement age of 65. The first country should show higher labor productivity than the second, because it has created incentives for people to retire from the labor force earlier. But its economy as a whole should be less productive, because citizens in the first country who are aged 63 are producing nothing, while in the second country citizens aged 63 are contributing to the economy. In this case, there’s nothing temporary about the choice. We’re not talking about temporary unemployment and whether it makes the economy more or less productive over the longer term. We’re talking about permanently reducing the size of the labor force. That’ll make it appear more productive, but it’s actually reducing the productivity of the economy as a whole.

Of course, there are problems with any statement that so-and-so isn’t “contributing to the economy.” There’s a lot of (arguably) valuable work that is undertaken on a volunteer basis: raising children, organizing a softball league, (blogging). In the classic example, if two women each raise their own children, they are not contributing to GDP, but if they each pay each other $15/hour to provide each other with childcare services, suddenly they are contributing to GDP, even though no additional value has been created. Notwithstanding this objection, I think my point is still valid. Saying that productivity goes up in recessions is only “really” true if the gains are sustained through the period when the economy gets back to a comparable level of labor force participation. If the size of the potential workforce (able-bodied individuals of working age) is stable between two points in time, and total hours worked across the labor force is the same at each of those points, but output is higher at the second point than at the first, then we can say that labor productivity has increased. If, on the other hand, lots of people dropped out of the labor force between the two points – retired early, were sent to prison, stayed in school an extra year without acquiring useful skills, became discouraged workers – then the apparently higher productivity at the second point is at least partly an illusion. The economy isn’t actually more productive; we’ve just taken the least-productive people and made them completely unproductive.

So when I talk about “increasing productivity” I mean productivity properly measured: from peak to peak in terms of labor force participation. Right now, we show pretty decent productivity numbers, but I pay essentially no attention to that because they appear to be achieved by laying off marginal workers and not much else. If we don’t lay the groundwork for re-employing those workers more productively than they were employed before – whether because their skills atrophy and they drop out of the workforce permanently, or in the unlikely event that we decide to employ them in make-work jobs that are even less-productive than what they used to do – then the apparently decent productivity numbers will turn out to be entirely illusory.

Four Questions For Matt Yglesias About QE2

Apropos of his latest and plenty of pieces before that.

People often talk about interest rates as if they can be divided into two parts: the “real” rate and the component that reflects inflation expectations. The real rate should be reflective of expectations for true growth in the economy; the difference between the real rate and the nominal rate reflects expectations about the change in the value of money. So, if inflation was running at 2% and was expected to continue to do so indefinitely, and the 10-year bond yield was 4%, you’d say that “real” interest rates were 2%. Similarly, if the 10-year bond yielded 2% but we were experiencing deflation of 1% per year, and that was expected to continue, you’d say that “real” interest rates were 3%.

The idea behind QE2 is for the Fed to force up inflation expectations while keeping down nominal yields. If inflation expectations go from 1% to 2%, and the 10-year Treasury yield is also 2%, then real rates go to zero. That’s very stimulative. Obviously, business and individual borrowing costs aren’t the same as the Treasury’s cost, but they are pretty closely linked, and if real rates were zero the incentive to borrow money and invest it in, well, just about anything would be pretty high.

Another way to think about it is this: right now, expectations for real growth are pretty anemic. Arguably, though, market rates reflect higher real interest rates than would be justified by these anemic growth expectations, simply because of the zero bound problem (nominal rates will always remain positive even if inflation is near or below zero). So if the Fed can engineer higher inflation expectations while keeping rates down, real rates would be more reflective of the real current expectations for growth – namely, that there won’t be much. Which, in turn, would be good, because it would remove one barrier to the resumption of growth, namely: relatively high real interest rates.

That’s a big “if,” though. Hence my questions:

1. If the Chinese intend to let their currency float, and if the general assumption that a free-floating Yuan would appreciate significantly against the dollar, they should probably unload their Treasury holdings first, to avoid taking a big loss. Certainly, they should stop buying more of them. But America is producing debt at a prodigious rate. If what QE2 accomplishes is mostly to convince the Chinese to stop subsidizing low interest rates in America, leaving the Fed to basically pick up the slack, how is that going to improve the American economy? Wouldn’t we just wind up with higher inflation and higher nominal interest rates – i.e., stagflation?

2. The reserve army of the unemployed in China is numbered in the hundreds of millions. Millions of new workers migrate annually from rural areas to China’s cities, whether the economy is growing at 10% per year (producing enough jobs to absorb the newcomers) or 6% per year (producing not nearly enough jobs to absorb the newcomers). That problem is really the only thing China’s economic managers think about. Trade may not be terribly important to America’s economy all things considered, but it is enormously important to China’s economy, and specifically enormously important to providing for rapid employment growth. The Chinese have been doing a lot of infrastructure investing to increase domestic demand, but it is not going to happen overnight. So, assuming the last thing the Chinese are going to do is accept a significant dislocation in their export industries and allow employment growth to slow, what do you think China will do to respond if America makes it clear we’re acting without regard to their interests? Doesn’t it make sense that their first response would be not to show up for the next Treasury auction? And wouldn’t that be a problem?

3. Higher inflation expectations should reduce demand for money and increase demand both for depreciating goods (consumer goods) and for goods that retain value in an inflationary environment (commodities). But while trade is a relatively small proportion of America’s economy, so is QE2. The volume of our international trade is large enough to absorb a good chunk of the money created by the Fed, and if much of that money does “leak out” that could well have negative feedback on the real economy. If, for example, higher inflation expectations mean higher oil and copper prices, that would act against any stimulative effect of a weaker dollar. If easier money means the marginal investment dollar goes to a commodity-based economy like Chile’s, that creates real problems for Chile without particularly helping stimulate demand in the United States. The question, of course, is the magnitude of this leakage. I don’t know what that magnitude will be any more than Yglesias does, but the people responsible for managing the economies of a variety of emerging markets seem to think it could be big.

4. The “big bang” danger lurking behind any proposal for a seriously expansionary monetary policy is the risk of a dollar crisis. I continue not to expect one, but I am cognizant of the fact that the United States benefits greatly (in the form of lower nominal interest rates than we deserve) from our status as the world’s reserve currency, and that inevitably we will lose this status one of these days. We’re in the process of losing it right now, in fact – but we’re losing it slowly. I can’t see how it could be good to lose it precipitously. But many of the more radical proposals for monetary stimulus have a flavor of “we need to convince people that we’re being irresponsible – that we actually want to trash the currency, so that they don’t just wait for us to withdraw the liquidity we’ve created but actually go out and buy stuff.” And it seems to me that anything that actually convinced the market that the Fed was going to be irresponsible in money generation would surely also convince the market that dollar should no longer be the preferred reserve currency. Right? So, again, you aim for lower real rates and wind up with higher – much higher – nominal rates.

I keep harping on this point, so I’m going to harp on it again. The United States cannot fund its own debts. I don’t mean the United States government – I mean the United States. Japan, for example, has an absurdly high public debt, but historically – though this is in the process of changing – had so much private savings that they could more than cover the cost of public debt domestically and still export capital abroad. The high public debt was really an accounting problem, something that impacted the distribution of wealth within the society but not the solvency of Japan as such.

But in America, private as well as public debt exploded in the last decade. If your economy has a private savings rate high enough to finance large public deficits, then you can run an expansionary fiscal policy as a way of basically getting around the big rise in the risk premium that accompanies recessions. You can also run an expansionary monetary policy as a way of getting private capital moving again without recycling it through the government. You can devalue your currency to improve your trade position and not worry that this will make it prohibitively expensive to borrow abroad because you don’t need to borrow abroad.

Our private citizens are busy rebuilding their balance sheets. Personal savings rates have finally gone up, to around 5%, which is low by longer-term historic standards but high relative to the last 20 years. That is absolutely right and necessary, even though it contributes to the recession in the short term (people are spending less, hence businesses expect people to spend less and don’t invest in new factories and bigger sales forces, and so forth). But net of individual, corporate and government accounts, nationally we are still borrowing from abroad – borrowing more, in fact, than we ever have before. Any expansionary policy, fiscal or monetary, depends on the goodwill of those who are actually financing that policy. So commentary on what our monetary policy should be that ignores or dismisses the international dimension strikes me as downright peculiar, unless it’s inviting us to play a kind of game of chicken, in which it makes game-theoretic sense to tell your opponent that you are unaware of or unconcerned by facts that are kind of important to your well-being.

Right now, real growth expectations are very low, and arguably real interest rates are too high relative to those expectations. If we get monetary policy just right, perhaps we’ll be able to bring down real interest rates, keep nominal rates low, and engineer a more robust recovery. But if we get it wrong, we’ll get higher inflation expectations without a recovery, and we’ll be substantially more constrained in terms of what kind of economic policy we can pursue going forward because of our continued dependence on foreign capital and the jaundiced eye with which foreign investors will view America after such a failure. So I don’t want to bet America’s economic future on getting monetary policy “just right.”

The other response to real interest rates that are “too high” relative to growth expectations is to figure out how to improve the prospects for real growth – which means, primarily, productivity growth. The traditional Republican mantra on this subject – cut taxes and all will be well – doesn’t even deserve the dignity of a response, which is why I spend essentially no time responding to it. But the question which that mantra is attempting to answer is the right question, the most important question for us to be asking.

Boardwalk Empire vs. Mad Men

Is HBO jealous of Mad Men? The network reportedly turned down the series when pitched. But over the last few years, Mad Men, which went to AMC instead, has largely taken over the culturally designated Best-Show-On-TV role previously filled by The Sopranos and The Wire. Part of the reason why is that, since the end of The Wire, HBO has struggled to offer the kind of accessible, intelligent, culturally relevant series needed to pick up the BSOTV title. True Blood is a little too weird. Big Love is a little too soapy. And much as I love Treme, its intense focus on urban life, and especially the urban realm’s lower income brackets, will almost certainly keep it from really breaking through. It’s the same problem the The Wire had, but worse: The Wire, at least, had a familiar enough cops-and-criminals/police procedural element. Treme is all Dickensian sprawl.

But now the network has come back with what looks like its best shot a consensus BSOTV winner since The Sopranos: Boardwalk Empire. I’m four episodes into the first season, and enjoying it very much. But I wonder if it will have to play second fiddle to Mad Men, in part because of how much it resembles AMC’s series.

Like Mad Men, Boardwalk Empire was created by a veteran of The Sopranos. Like Mad Men, it is a lushly shot period tale (although I would guess that Empire, with its giant boardwalk set, is considerably more expensive). And like Mad Men, it is a sober, serious social drama, intent on exploring the emerging social tensions of the era: Women’s suffrage, and their role in society in general; racial equality, both in business and politics; the intersection of local and national governmental corruption. And both shows set these tensions against a backdrop of brazen male bad behavior which they both exploit for entertainment and (usually) disapprove of. And both shows are far more explicit in their disapproval — their moral high-mindedness — than The Sopranos, which, as often as not, worked in black comedy and amoral farce, almost daring its audience to look down on its characters’ dark ways. As Nancy Franklin wrote in her review of Boardwalk for The New Yorker, “Even if its point is to show you the ugly side of fun, Boardwalk Empire should be much more fun to watch.” In my (probably too negative) NR review of Mad Men‘s first season, I made a similar point, comparing it to The Sopranos and arguing that Mad Men “is too timid to let its viewers in on the fun” its bad boy characters are having.

Boardwalk is somewhat more focused on business and political life while Mad Men is somewhat more focused on community and family. And so far, Boardwalk strikes me as somewhat less focused on targeting the ugly social practices of an older America, though it still attempts to reflect contemporary America on a pretty regular basis. I like both shows, and I’ll probably stick with both of them (though I should admit I’m a couple seasons behind on Mad Men). And in general, I’m pleased to see genuinely smart, high-quality shows like these receive ratings, attention, and accolades. But both Mad Men and Boardwalk seem to have decided that the lesson of The Sopranos was that because both critics and the general public started taking television very seriously, TV creators — at least those competing for the Best Show on TV mantle — should follow their lead and amp up the self-seriousness of their creations.

Congratulations!

And the winners of the 2010 Stick with the Scene competition are:

Grand Prize (US$150 coupon):
“Honk if you’re paying my mortgage.” posted by jd

Finalists (US$50 coupons):
“Keep Fear Alive! Palin/Beck 2012” by chainsaw
“O’Donnell ’10: My Other Car Is Not A Broom.” by Conor Friedersdorf
“Brown 2010: Haven’t I Been Here Before?” by Gary Therkildsen
“Go Stimulate Yourself.” by Charles Tapp

If you’re one of the political marking gurus listed above, please e-mail stickwiththescene@gmail.com to claim your coupon for free custom stickers.

Quick Election Reax

For a former politics junkie, I was less-engaged by the just-completed midterm elections than I have been in quite some time. Hence the minimal commentary in the run-up thereto. (Also, I’ve been very focused other writing.)

But here are my morning-after reactions:

- The one real disappointment for me of the night was Senator Feingold’s loss in Wisconsin. I really wish that the Democrats had lost a generic team player like Boxer or Murray and that one of the few civil libertarians in politics had managed to retain his seat.

- Leadership matters. Republicans nominated very right-wing candidates who seemed like plausible Senators in Florida and Pennsylvania. They won. They also nominated very right-wing candidates who seemed like lunatics in Nevada, Delaware and Alaska. They lost. (Well, Alaska’s not certain yet.) There is a lesson here: don’t nominate candidates who seem like lunatics. You would think this would be an easy lesson to learn.

- While I have no great expectations for the GOP-led House, a big swing is a good sign for American democracy. Personally, I think the GOP has essentially no ideas on how to fix what ails the American economy. But the Democrats have had nearly two years to convince America that they know what they are doing. They failed to convince. What should happen when the American people feel the governing party has failed is that the governing party loses a big election. They did. Good.

And, now we’ll see.

Photos Of The Day

When I walk on this path from The Sea Ranch Lodge down to the beach I always wonder if it looks like Scotland, where I’ve never been, and then I start fantasizing that I’m walking down the fairway of a links golf course, as described by John McPhee, whose Paris Review interview is well worth reading if you’re at all into writing, or his books, or conversations with living legends.

I’d also like to offer a rebuttal to everyone who has ever claimed that California doesn’t have seasons:

That’s taken in the Anderson Valley, where they make this especially good Gold Pale Ale. That brewery is nearby a lot of Mendocino County wineries, and the fall colors on the vines make for a lovely spread this time of year. We missed seeing the harvest by just a few weeks. Farmers hurried to get the last of the grapes off the vine to avoid several days of rainy weather.

The last advice I’ll give before disappearing into the sunset is this: if at all possible acquire some fresh figs, mindful that you’ll need to use them within a day or two of taking them home. Cut them in half, rub olive oil over their surface, sprinkle on a bit of sea salt, put goat cheese in the concavity, put them in the microwave just long enough to warm the goat cheese — do not put them in the microwave for too long! — and when you take them out, drape prosciutto over the top before serving as an hors d’oeuvre, or for those lacking in self-restraint a whole delicious meal, though I don’t recommend doing the latter very often.

It turns out this is the most sensible blog post I have written all year. Okay, now that sunset, seen through the woods atop the bluff.

Last Call for Free Stickers

Submit your favorite bumper sticker slogans today for a chance to win US$150 in free stickers from Sticker Mule. Four finalist will also receive US$50 coupons. There have been about a dozen great submissions so far, including:

“O’Donnell ’10: My Other Car Is Not A Broom.”
“Obama – out of my pocket! I can stimulate myself”
“Keep Fear Alive! Palin / Beck in 2012”
“Brown 2010: Haven’t I Been Here Before?”
“Vote Republican! It’s easier than thinking…”
“Prez sez $1T deficits forever; u think O’Donnell’s crazy”

See here for competition details. The five finalist will be announce tomorrow for voting, and the winner will be selected on November 3rd.

Can you do better?

UPDATE: Scene regular Replica Swiss Watch could very well be in contention with, “that’s was not a car! it should go on TV for promotion!”

UPDATE TWO: The Washington Post offers a few choice slogans from the Rally to Restore Sanity.

Re: The “Liberal Gene”

Jonah, Goldberg and John Derbyshire are having an interesting exchange at The Corner on whether researchers have a found a gene that, under certain environmental conditions, predisposes individuals to liberal politics.

I wrote a long piece (gated) for National Review in 2008 that described why we should be very skeptical of assertions of causality that are derived from gene association studies. The basic reason is that, while these kinds of studies have remarkable rhetorical force because their purported subject is biology, if you look under the skin at the bones of the analysis, the core method is traditional social science. The article under consideration is an almost perfect illustration of this.

Start with the point that the press release (literally titled “Researchers liberate a ‘liberal gene’”) is basically worthless, as it so frequently and carelessly elides the difference between claims of “association” (i.e., correlation) and claims of causality.

The basic methodology employed in the real paper starts by arguing that prior research has led to a theory that a specific gene ought to be implicated in a specific behavior. In this case, the hypothesized behavior is that people with a specific gene variant that is believed to predispose individuals to seek out new experiences should be more liberal if they are also embedded in a social network with a broad variety of viewpoints. The point of the study is to “test” this hypothesis by, roughly speaking, looking at a group of people who have the gene variant to see if there is an “association” (there’s that word again) between the number of friends in adolescence and likelihood of being liberal, and then to compare this degree of association to that found among a group of people without the gene variant. They discover that for the group with the gene variant, there is a meaningful association, but that there is not for those without it.

The big problem, of course, is that other things might also vary between the groups, and these other differences might be the real cause of the observed behavior difference. Here’s how I put this in the piece from the magazine:

Media outlets will often speak loosely of things such as a “happiness gene,” a “gay gene,” or a “smart gene.” The state-of-the-art method for finding such a link is something called a “genome-wide association study” (GWAS). In a GWAS, scientists use blood or saliva samples to sequence the DNA for a group of several thousand people who exhibit a trait or behavior of interest (the “case group”), and for a second group of several thousand who do not exhibit the trait or behavior (the “control group”). …

A second limitation of a GWAS is that it detects association rather than causation. Suppose we found that a case group of persons suffering from a disease had a greater incidence of some gene than did a control group, but that we failed to notice that the case group was disproportionately of Chinese ancestry. Culturally transmitted behaviors in the case group might be responsible for the disease, even if these behaviors had nothing to do with the gene in question. That is, the gene could be nothing more than a marker for Chinese ancestry, and hence for participation in behaviors that cause the disease. Geneticists call this problem “stratification,” and deal with it by carefully matching individuals in the case and control groups to ensure that the groups really are comparable. The problem is that these stratification effects can be fiendishly subtle. No matter how carefully we match cases with controls, there can always be some unobserved environmental factor correlated with, but not caused by, a genetic difference between groups, and this environmental factor might be what is actually causing the disease.

The researchers are well aware of the centrality of this problem. The crucial methodological passage in the full research paper starts with this:

Genetic association studies test whether an allele or genotype occurs more frequently within a group exhibiting a particular trait than those without the trait (e.g., is the frequency of a particular allele or genotype higher among liberals than conservatives?). Because a significant association has several possible explanations, there are two main research designs employed in association studies to isolate the effect of an allele on a trait, case-control designs and family-based designs (Carey 2002). Due to potential population stratification in our sample, we chose to employ a family-based design, which eliminates the problem of population stratification by using family members, such as parents or siblings, as controls.

That is, the researchers intelligently use family members as controls to try and optimize case-control matching. But this does not come close to eliminating the problem, as the researchers then describe:

We include individuals from the same family in the analysis, and thus the observations are not independent. Therefore, we use a generalized estimating equations approach with an independent working correlation structure for the clustered errors, to estimate the model. Only siblings that have different genotypes, in this case a different number of 7R alleles, are informative for the within-family component of variance since wij equals zero otherwise. However, families that share the same genotype are also included in our analysis for improved estimation of the between-family component. We have also included controls in the model for both age and gender, as there are numerous instances of age effects in gene-environment interactions and there are sex specific genetic influences on political preferences (Hatemi, Medland, and Eaves 2009c). [Bold added]

In other words, the researchers have built the functional equivalent of a regression model, through which they believe that they have comprehensively controlled for other effects in just the way that any political science, economics or other social science researcher would have in a paper that tried to evaluate the effect of any non-genetic purported cause of such a propensity (which makes a lot of sense, as the article was actually published in The Journal of Politics).

But as I described in my piece, this means that in spite of all the white lab coat talk about alleles and so on, we should treat this with the same skepticism that we would bring to any social science regression model:

So how is a GWAS showing an association between Gene X and aggressiveness different from a social-science study showing a correlation between watching lots of violent TV and aggressiveness? Mathematically, it’s not. In both cases we start by measuring aggressiveness for each person. We then compile for each person a list of data providing information on potential causes of aggressiveness: in one case genomic information, and in the other, sociological observations on childhood experiences, school quality, and so on. In the first case we observe that aggressive people have a higher incidence of Gene X; in the second that they watch a lot of violent TV. The reliability of GWAS studies is thus subject to the same limitations that we think of in connection with sociology or economics (as opposed to, say, chemistry). The only way around this — the only way to attain the precision of chemistry — would be actually to show the chain of biochemical processes by which a set of named genes creates the observable brain functions collectively defined as “aggressiveness.” Of course, if we could do that, we would have no need for a GWAS study.

The claims of causality that arise from such studies should accordingly be treated with the appropriately intense skepticism that we apply to sociological or econometric studies. In the middle of the 20th century, Friedrich Hayek and the libertarians he inspired faced those who asserted that that an economy could be successfully planned. The libertarian position was not that such planning could be proved impossible in theory, but that we lacked sufficient information and processing power to accomplish it. The world of economic interaction is so complex that it overwhelms our ability to render it predictable; hence the need for markets to set prices. This is the same analytical problem we face when trying to predict a mental state that depends upon a large number of genes. It is unclear whether we will ever understand how this complicated machinery and its interactions with the environment come together to create characteristics of mind. It is certain, however, that we do not have such an understanding now, and that we won’t know such a project is achievable until we achieve it.

(Cross-posted to The Corner)

Stick with the Scene

It’s election season! That means you’re already inundated with all-too-clever political communications – pesky political bloggers, perfectly impartial public service announcements, front-yard branding, townhall meetings (seriously?), and, of course, the bumper sticker.

To celebrate our great American loves for oil and partisan politics, the American Scene would like to invite you to participate in the 2010 Stick with the Scene competition.

Here’s how it works: submit you favorite political bumper sticker or campaign slogan in the comments thread below, or e-mail submissions to stickwiththescene@gmail.com. Extra points will be awarded for visual creativity and relevance. Appropriate image files and e-mail submissions will be posted here throughout the competition (so please include your name and website!) for the entire family to comment and critique.

All entries must be received by 11:59pm ET on November 1st, limit three entries per e-mail address. Five of the most popular and awesome submissions will be selected as finalists, and re-posted on November 2nd. This will be your last opportunity to vote for a winner, which will be announced with the national election results on November 3rd.

The author of the winning submission will receive a $150 coupon and four finalists will receive $50 coupons for custom stickers, courtesy of our friends at Sticker Mule. The coupon can be redeemed online for a number of different custom sticker products – from iPod skins to classic bumper riders.

Let’s stick what you’ve got!

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