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Nouriel Roubini's EconoMonitor

Gordon Gekko Reborn

Aug 13, 2010 4:23PM

In the 1987 film Wall Street, the character Gordon Gekko famously declared, “Greed is good.” His creed became the ethos of a decade of corporate and financial-sector excesses that ended in the late 1980’s collapse of the junk-bond market and the Savings & Loan crisis. Gekko himself was packed off to prison.

A generation later, the sequel to Wall Street – to be released next month – sees Gekko released from jail and returned to the financial world. His reappearance comes just as the credit bubble fueled by the sub-prime mortgage boom is about to burst, triggering the worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression.

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From The Economist: Click for Video

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Nouriel Roubini on Systemic Risks: U.S. financial reform, the risk of deflation in advanced economies, and China's growth.


All rights reserved, Roubini GlobalEconomics, LLC. Opinions expressed on RGE EconoMonitors are those of individual analysts and may or may not express RGE’s own consensus view. RGE is not a certified investment advisory service and aims to create an intellectual framework for informed financial decisions by its clients. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute, and may not be relied on as, investment advice or a recommendation of any investment or trading strategy.  This information is intended for sophisticated professional investors who will exercise their own judgment and will independently evaluate factors bearing on the suitability of any investment or trading strategy. Information and views, including any changes or updates, may be made available first to certain RGE clients and others at RGE’s discretion.  Roubini Global Economics, LLC is not an investment adviser.    

Something other than leaves will fall in Europe this autumn. American attention, no doubt, will focus on Barack Obama’s date with an angry electorate this November. Yet across the pond, governments of the right, left and center in Europe appear ready to crumble, their positions eroded by a wave of austerity, high unemployment and government debt, plus a smattering of nasty corruption scandals.

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We'd like to be able to say we've been pleasantly surprised by recent data, after predicting in our Q3 Outlook Update that 2010 would be a "Year of Two Halves." Instead, a string of releases in the past two weeks has made clear that the sluggish second half is here, after fiscal stimulus and inventory restocking fueled growth in the first six months.

Since the end of 2009 we have been emphasizing that the recovery would be multi-speed—or at least two-speed—with much of the advanced world displaying a below-trend, anemic growth pace and the emerging world showing a more V-shaped recovery. Now, the global macroeconomic deterioration that we still see emerging in the second half of 2010 increasingly is becoming the consensus view. In much of the advanced world this low growth will feel like a recession even if these economies technically avoid a double dip. Meanwhile, emerging markets are showing that even their more robust recoveries are not insulated from the slowdowns and structural adjustments in advanced economies. We have never been subscribers to the decoupling thesis and believe that emerging markets also will have to partially adjust to a "New Normal."

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CNBC Squawk Box -- Roubini's Economic Outlook (Click for VIDEO [2:58])

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CNBC -- What to expect for the second half of the year, with Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics chairman.

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CNBC Squawk Box -- Getting Real with "the Realist" (Click for VIDEO [11:17])

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CNBC -- Why the European stress tests were not stressful enough, with Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics chairman.

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CNBC --  Roubini: EU Stress Tests Criteria Not Realistic

The pan-European stress tests on the banking sector were not tough enough to reflect future worsening conditions for the continent's economy, Nouriel Roubini, economist and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, told CNBC Monday.

European stress tests assumed a rise of 6 percent in unemployment, economic contraction of 3 percent on average and a 6 percent hike in market interest rates. Many analysts said the conditions were harsher than what they had anticipated.

"The assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic enough," said. Roubini, who was dubbed by the media "Dr. Doom" but prefers to be called "Dr. Realist."

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All rights reserved, Roubini GlobalEconomics, LLC. Opinions expressed on RGE EconoMonitors are those of individual analysts and may or may not express RGE’s own consensus view. RGE is not a certified investment advisory service and aims to create an intellectual framework for informed financial decisions by its clients. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute, and may not be relied on as, investment advice or a recommendation of any investment or trading strategy.  This information is intended for sophisticated professional investors who will exercise their own judgment and will independently evaluate factors bearing on the suitability of any investment or trading strategy. Information and views, including any changes or updates, may be made available first to certain RGE clients and others at RGE’s discretion.  Roubini Global Economics, LLC is not an investment adviser.        

 

This coming Monday Nouriel Roubini will be guest hosting CNBC's Squawk Box U.S.  7am-9am.

Double-Dip Days

Jul 18, 2010 8:22PM

The global economy, artificially boosted since the recession of 2008-2009 by massive monetary and fiscal stimulus and financial bailouts, is headed towards a sharp slowdown this year as the effect of these measures wanes. Worse yet, the fundamental excesses that fueled the crisis – too much debt and leverage in the private sector (households, banks and other financial institutions, and even much of the corporate sector) – have not been addressed. Private-sector deleveraging has barely begun. Moreover, there is now massive re-leveraging of the public sector in advanced economies, with huge budget deficits and public-debt accumulation driven by automatic stabilizers, counter-cyclical Keynesian fiscal stimulus, and the immense costs of socializing the financial system’s losses.

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From the Financial Times:

Sagging Global Growth Requires Us to Act

By Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer

It looks as if the global economy is heading for a serious slowdown this year. Emergency austerity programmes in some countries will put a drag on growth. Inventory adjustments will run their course. The effects of tax policies that steal demand from the future – such as the US “cash for clunkers” scheme, tax credits for home buyers or cash for green appliances – will fizzle out. Labour market conditions will remain weak. The slow and painful deleveraging of balance sheets and income-challenged households, financial institutions and governments will continue.

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CNBC -- Bears Battering Bulls (Click for Video)

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CNBC --  Insight on employment and the markets, with Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group and Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics and NYU Stern School of Business.

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CNBC -- Fixing the Financial System (Click for Video)

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CNBC --  The financial reform bill is headed to the Senate later this month, with Chris Whalen, Institutional Risk Analytics; Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group and Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics and NYU Stern School of Business.

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CNBC -- Final Thoughts (Click for Video)

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CNBC --  Concluding market insight, with Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group and Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics and NYU Stern School of Business.

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CNBC -- Banks Too Big to Fail, Too Big to Bailout: Roubini

European governments face the quandary of being unable to afford to bail out banks that are still considered too big to fail, while the global economy is heading for a slowdown in the second half of the year, economist Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Global Economics told CNBC Tuesday.

Governments are running out of ways to counter a "massive slowdown" or the risk of a double-dip recession, Roubini said.

"A year ago we had all these policy bullets," he said. "We could push down rates to zero, we had (quantitative easing), we could do a budget deficit of 10 percent of GDP (or) backstop the financial system."

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All rights reserved, Roubini GlobalEconomics, LLC. Opinions expressed on RGE EconoMonitors are those of individual analysts and may or may not express RGE’s own consensus view. RGE is not a certified investment advisory service and aims to create an intellectual framework for informed financial decisions by its clients. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute, and may not be relied on as, investment advice or a recommendation of any investment or trading strategy.  This information is intended for sophisticated professional investors who will exercise their own judgment and will independently evaluate factors bearing on the suitability of any investment or trading strategy. Information and views, including any changes or updates, may be made available first to certain RGE clients and others at RGE’s discretion.  Roubini Global Economics, LLC is not an investment adviser.        

CNBC: The Kudlow Report -- Crisis Economics: Discussing whether the recession is headed for a double-dip, with Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics chairman.  (Click for Video [6:48])

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All rights reserved, Roubini GlobalEconomics, LLC. Opinions expressed on RGE EconoMonitors are those of individual analysts and may or may not express RGE’s own consensus view. RGE is not a certified investment advisory service and aims to create an intellectual framework for informed financial decisions by its clients. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute, and may not be relied on as, investment advice or a recommendation of any investment or trading strategy.  This information is intended for sophisticated professional investors who will exercise their own judgment and will independently evaluate factors bearing on the suitability of any investment or trading strategy. Information and views, including any changes or updates, may be made available first to certain RGE clients and others at RGE’s discretion.  Roubini Global Economics, LLC is not an investment adviser.