August 17, 2010
A new
Market Research Institute poll in Louisiana shows primary challenger Chet Traylor (R) could stop Sen. David Vitter (R) from capturing the GOP nomination in Aug. 28 primary election.
Vitter leads Traylor, 46% to 34% with 21% still undecided, but below the 50% he would need to avoid a run off.
"Let us be clear about one thing: The tea party movement is not seeking a junior partnership with the Republican Party, but a hostile takeover of it."
-- Former House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R) and Matt Kibbe, in a
Wall Street Journal op-ed.
The
Cook Political Report raised its House forecast "from a Republican net gain of between 32 and 42 seats to a gain of between 35 and 45 seats, with the odds of an outcome larger than that range greater than the odds of a lesser outcome."
Republicans would need a net turnover of 39 seats to take control of the chamber.
"At this point, only 214 House seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic, while 181 seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Republican, and 40 seats are in the Toss Up column. While this would imply an advantage for Democrats, given the continuous erosion we have seen in dozens of contests so far this cycle, races shifting from Solid and Likely Democrat to Lean Democratic and Toss Up, we would be surprised if there was not more movement over the 78 days from now until Election Day."
In an interview with the
Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, Wisconsin U.S. Senate candidate Ron Johnson (R) claimed "extreme weather phenomena were better explained by sunspots than an overload of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as many scientists believe."
Said Johnson: "I absolutely do not believe in the science of man-caused climate change. It's not proven by any stretch of the imagination... It's far more likely that it's just sunspot activity or just something in the geologic eons of time."
He also insisted excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere "gets sucked down by trees and helps the trees grow."
A new
DailyKos/Public Policy Polling survey in Missouri shows Roy Blunt (R) beating Robin Carnahan (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 38%.
A new
Public Policy Polling survey in Illinois finds Alexi Giannoulias (D) edging Rep. Mark Kirk (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 37% to 35%, with Green party candidate LeAlan Jones at 9%.
Most interesting finding: "Both candidates continue to be very unpopular. Giannoulias' favorability is 26/42 and Kirk's is 26/34. Independents have a negative opinion of both of them, and each of them is viewed more unfavorably by voters of the opposite party than they are favorably by their own party base."
Former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich was found guilty on one count of giving a false statement to federal agents but the jury couldn't reach a unanimous decision on the other 23 counts, the
Chicago Sun Times reports.
Said Blagovevich: "This was a persecution. They threw everything they
could at me. The jury agreed the government did not prove its case."
The judge said he intends to declare a mistrial on the undecided counts, however, federal prosecutors told the judge it is "absolutely our intention to retry this'' until there is a conclusion.
A new
Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania finds Pat Toomey (R) leading Joe Sestak (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 36%.
"This is our first poll of the race explicitly surveying likely voters
and given the considerably greater enthusiasm on the Republican side
we're seeing an electorate in the state that voted for John McCain by a
point in 2008, in contrast to Barack Obama's actual 10 point victory in
the state. "
A new
Rasmussen survey shows Toomey leading 46% to 37%.
"The new politics -- it's no longer good enough to beat you on policy. They have to completely drown you and put you in prison and destroy your family and your reputation and finances, then dance on your grave."
-- Former Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX), quoted by the
New York Times, on the Justice Department dropping a corruption investigation into his dealings with a former lobbyist.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates is expected to leave his post in the spring of 2011,
CNN reports.
"According to the senior administration official, Gates privately promised President Barack Obama he would not leave the Cabinet in 2010 in order to maintain stability at the Pentagon while more U.S. forces are heading to Afghanistan. In addition, the senior official said, Gates does not want a potentially difficult confirmation battle for his successor to take place in the presidential election year of 2012."
The corporate parent of Fox News gave $1 million to the Republican Governors Association this year,
Bloomberg reports.
Ben Smith: "The company's media outlets play politics more openly than most, but the huge contribution to a party committee is a new step toward an open identification between Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. and the GOP."
Peter Beinart: "Words I never thought I'd write: I pine for George W. Bush. Whatever his flaws, the man respected religion, all religion. Maybe it was because he had been an addict himself, and knew from hanging around prisons that Allah had saved as many broken souls as Jesus Christ. Until a month or so ago, I genuinely believed that the American right had become a religiously ecumenical place. Right-wing Baptists loved right-wing Catholics and they both loved right-wing Orthodox Jews. All you had to do to join the big tent was denounce feminists, Hollywood, and gays. But when push came to shove, Sarah Palin didn't care about Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf's position on gay marriage. In today's GOP, even bigotry doesn't spare you from bigotry. I wonder what Mitt Romney was thinking, as he added his voice to the anti-Muslim chorus. He surely knows that absent the religious right's hostility to Mormons, he'd likely have been the GOP's 2008 presidential nominee. I look forward to his paeans to religious freedom when anti-Mormonism rears its head again in 2012."
"The GOP blueprint for winning control of the House is rapidly coming into focus, with the National Republican Congressional Committee readying a $22 million TV ad blitz aimed at a handful of powerful, long-serving incumbents and several dozen of the most junior members of the Democratic majority,"
Politico reports.
The Republican campaign arm "will invest in 40 districts around the nation in its first wave of television commercial reservations."
First Read: "But this also underscores the GOP's challenge in picking up the net 39 House seats it needs to take back the House in November: Because Republicans likely aren't going to win in all of these 40 districts, they're banking on outside groups -- and, more importantly, a wave -- to win control of the House."
The Hotline: "Having more money - as the Dems do - is always better than having less.
But if you look at how much the NRCC is planning to spend per race
compared to the DCCC, they are approaching parity."
Voters in Washington state and Wyoming head to the polls today, "with the Senate contest in Washington and a battle for the open Wyoming governor's seat the most closely watched races of the day,"
CNN reports.
In Washington, Sen. Patty Murray (D) and challenger Dino Rossi (R) "are expected to emerge from a crowded primary field, setting up a November showdown. Under the state's system, the two candidates who receive the most votes regardless of party affiliation move on to the general election. Voting has been underway for two weeks, with Washington primarily a mail-in ballot state."
In Wyoming, Republicans "are hoping to reclaim the governor's mansion as Democrat Dave Freudenthal leaves office. Seven Republicans are competing for the GOP nomination, while five Democrats are running for their party's nod."
Polls in Washington close at 11:00 pm ET. They close at 9:00 pm ET in Wyoming.
A new
Susquehanna poll in Florida shows Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) leading Jeff Greene (D) in next week's Democratic U.S. Senate primary, 45% to 30%, with Maurice Ferre (D) way back at 8%.
A new
McLaughlin poll in Florida has Bill McCollum (R) leading Rick Scott in next week's Republican gubernatorial primary, 45% to 33%.
A new
Gallup survey shows that no more than 25% of Americans have a "great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in either newspapers or television news.
Key point: "With nearly all news organizations struggling to keep up with the up-to-the-minute news cycle and to remain profitable in the process, Americans' low trust in newspapers and television news presents a critical barrier to success. The Pew report asserts that 80% of new media links are to legacy newspapers and broadcast networks, making clear that traditional news sources remain the backbone of the media. But so long as roughly three in four Americans remain distrustful, it will be difficult to attract the large and loyal audiences necessary to boost revenues."
August 16, 2010
A new
Public Policy Polling survey shows four Republicans essentially tied in a 2012 Republican presidential primary match up: Mike Huckabee at 23%, Mitt Romney at 22%, Sarah Palin at 21% and Newt Gingrich at 21%.
"Obviously he's been a disaster... Michael Steele has failed miserably in the things you're supposed to do -- raise money and basically go out and articulate the message. It's not going to matter though. In 11 weeks from now, what he says and does in the next 11 weeks is not going to matter."
-- Political consultant Ed Rollins, on
Face the Nation, on RNC Chairman Michael Steele.
Emily's List, "a fundraising group that has raised and spent more than $43 million to elect Democratic women to office, is taking on Sarah Palin," according to
USA Today.
The group says it wants to counter Palin's appeal to women, but the article raises the key question: "Does Emily's List see an opportunity to raise money for their candidates and causes by using Palin's name?"
Brad Phillips, a specialist in media communications, suggests House Minority Leader John Boehner's (R-OH) extreme tan might be getting in the way of his message.
"I know an article about Rep. Boehner's tan may seem superficial, but it underscores a vital truth about communications: Audiences take more meaning from a spokesperson's vocal tone and body language than they do from words alone. That doesn't mean words don't matter - they do. But if the audience is distracted by something in an interview - whether it's a monotone delivery, a few dozen 'uhhhs' or 'ummms,' or an overly-tanned face - they are not going to hear what you have to say."
Political Wire will be a little slower this week as we take some time to enjoy the end of the summer.
Thanks very much for being a loyal reader.
"People are very concerned about the economy, people are very concerned
about terrorism, and people are very concerned about controlling the
border, but I don't know that they want politicians two years in advance
worrying about the presidency."
-- Newt Gingrich, quoted by the
Des Moines Register, as he announces another trip to Iowa next month.
Gen. David Petraeus was interviewed on
Meet the Press and was once again asked if he might run for President of the United States.
PETRAEUS: Well, I am not a politician, and I will never be, and I say that with absolute conviction.
GREGORY: Well, that's what he said. But does that mean that you're totally clear? That you'd never run for President?
PETRAEUS: Yeah, I really am. You know, and I've said that I'll adopt what Sherman said and go back and look at what has come to be known as a
Shermanesque answer on that particular question.
GREGORY: No way, no how?
PETRAEUS: No way, no how.
Denny Heck (D), a congressional candidate in Washington's third congressional district, has a ready-made campaign slogan for an anti-Washington year in his new
political ad.
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