If, like me, you occasionally like to slap your forehead at how old you are getting, here is today's installment: best birthday wishes are in order for Donnie Wahlberg: the older brother of actor Mark Wahlberg, a solid actor in his own right, but best known for his years in the boy band New Kids on the Block.
The one-time teen idol turns...41 years old today.
Also celebrating birthdays today: actor Sean Penn (who turns 50), football coach and commentator Jon Gruden (who turns 47) and international footballer Thierry Henry (who celebrates his 33rd birthday today).
Before, we celebrate with a heaping helping of the Tuesday edition of the Wrap, a reminder that tonight sees two states out West heading to their ballot boxes, as the primary season continues.
Check back on the Wednesday edition of the Wrap to find out how the ballots were cast in Washington State (a beautiful state, might I add, having been there on vacation just two short weeks ago) and Wyoming....
THE U.S. SENATE
AZ-Sen: Parraz internal claims close race for Democratic nod
Picking up a poll that slipped through the cracks last week: a new internal poll from Senate contender Randy Parraz has him within striking distance of the long-perceived frontrunner in the Democratic field, Tucson councilman Rodney Glassman. Glassman still leads, even in Parraz's poll, nabbing 20% of the vote to 17% for Parraz. The internal poll, by Dem pollsters Winning Connections, showed a ton of undecideds (nearly half of the electorate) still up for grabs in the August 24th primary.
IL-Sen: PPP poll gives Giannoulias the slight edge in Land of Lincoln
Given the dreadfully conservative electorate projected by PPP in Illinois (the electorate went for Obama in '08 by just nine points, in a state Obama carried by 25), things could certainly be worse here. That said, it is still anyone's ballgame in Illinois, as Democratic state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias holds a narrow edge over Republican Congressman Mark Kirk (37-35). Green Party nominee LeAlan Jones lingers well behind at 9% of the vote, which is a pretty lofty stat for a third-party candidate. Kirk has to be pretty mortified by these numbers. It is hard to imagine that the Dems won't regain a little bit of their electorate here. Furthermore, the Democrat is carrying moderate voters here by seventeen points, despite Kirk's longstanding insistence that he is a moderate. Lastly, the poll included the Green Party option (Jones), but not the Libertarian Party (Mike Labno) or the Constitution Party (Randy Stufflebeam) candidates, which might have inflated Kirk's stats a little bit. It is worth noting, however, that Jones drew equal numbers from liberals and conservatives, indicating that some conservatives might already be using him as a protest vote.
KY-Sen: Electorate matters in Paul-Conway race, according to Ipsos poll
Like most pollsters as of late, the team at Reuters/Ipsos see a very different race in Kentucky, depending on the composition of the electorate. If the race is screened only by voter registration, the race between Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Jack Conway is all knotted up at 40%. However, when the likely voter screen is dropped, Paul opens up a slight lead (45-40) over Conway. One thing keeping Conway alive is that Democratic enthusiasm is only slightly less than GOP enthusiasm in the Bluegrass State. Also, President Obama's numbers, while far from awesome, are not as low (44/55 job approval spread) as some other southern and border states.
LA-Sen: Traylor internal claims runoff possible in GOP primary
There are a lot of grains of salt to accompany this poll, but a local pollster has done some internal polling for GOP Senate challenger Chet Traylor, and finds a potentially competitive contest in the Pelican State. The poll, done by local GOP pollster Verne Kennedy, has Vitter at 46%, with Traylor at 34%. In that scenario, the two candidates would then advance to a runoff election. This stands in stark contrast to other polls, which have found Vitter way ahead and Traylor stuck in single digits. One of the potential reasons why--it appears as if Kennedy (in a pretty sizeable breach of pollster standard operating procedure), asked questions about Vitter's checkered past before asking the trial heat questions. Interestingly (and this must be a typo, the article in question says that a whopping 44% of the sample was not employed.
NH-Sen: GOP primary goes negative as it enters the final month
With less than a month until the primaries in the Granite State, and with polls showing longtime frontrunner Kelly Ayotte in the catbird seat, the GOP primary for the US Senate is finally turning a bit nasty. Free-spending businessman Bill Binnie is gunning for Ayotte, jumping on her for failing to be diligent in her duties as state attorney general, and featuring victims of a major fraud that Binnie argues that Ayotte missed in her term as AG. This came on the heels of state party chairman John Sununu asking for the campaign to remain positive, a request that was swiftly denied by Binnie, who argued that he had a right to "defend himself" in the campaign.
PA-Sen: More GOP electorate yields less support for Sestak in PPP poll
As Tom Jensen noted yesterday, PPP has moved to a likely voter screen for their state-by-state polling. The net result? A much more conservative electorate in the Keystone State, and a high single-digit lead for Republican candidate Patrick Toomey (45-36) over Democrat Joe Sestak. In a sign of how severe the enthusiasm gap is in Pennsylvania, John McCain carried the state among the likely voters of the state in 2008 (of course, he lost the state by ten points in 2008). The good news, if any, for Sestak: the undecided voters went pretty solidly (52-36) for Obama in 2008.
THE U.S. HOUSE
AZ-03/AZ-05: GOP primaries turn very interesting in final week
Jeremy Duda of the Arizona Capitol Times posted some of the latest news emanating from the Congressional primaries in Arizona, and a couple of items are pretty darned interesting. In the 3rd district, which takes in much of the northern suburbs of Phoenix, Duda reports that Ben Quayle's position as the presumptive frontrunner in the race has disappeared amid his own flailing campaign gaffes. In his place, it appears that self-funder Steve Moak and former state legislator Jim Waring have moved into the co-favorite position. Democrats have already coalesced around the fairly impressive campaign of attorney Jon Hulburd. Meanwhile, several miles to the southeast in the Tempe-based 5th district, 2008 nominee and former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schwiekert is taking a potentially perilous premature victory lap. Schweikert announced he is cutting back his advertising buys, because he is so confident of a primary win that he wants to start piling up resources for the general election. Leading to the question: how stupid will Schweikert feel if potential contenders Jim Ward and Susan Bitter Smith catch and pass him in the final week?
CA-05: Give me $20,000, or the campaign is dead!
Those in my age group will fondly recall televangelist Oral Roberts reporting that he would be "called home" by God if he could not raise $8 million dollars in a handful of months (note: it worked. He raised that amount, and then some). Republican candidate Paul Smith (challenging incumbent Doris Matsui in this staunchly Democratic Sacramento-based district) is a bit less lofty in his goals, but the tactics are pretty darned similar. Smith has announced in an email blast to his supporters suspended his campaign against Matsui, and is threatening to pull the plug permanently if they cannot raise $20,000 on his behalf by the end of the month.
GA-02: GOP internal says longtime Dem Rep. is endangered
Despite the relatively red state of his district, longtime Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop (arguably the most conservative African-American in the Democratic delegation, until Artur Davis came along) has repeatedly won re-election by solid margins. That may well change this cycle, if a new internal poll for GOP nominee Mike Keown, Bishop enjoys just a six-point edge over the Republican. The campaign also claims that Keown leads by twelve points among those who know both candidates. This is often a ridiculously flawed metric in a House race, however, since it is pretty damned unlikely that anyone in one political party has ever heard of the nominee of the other party this early in the campaign.
GA-08: Marshall also has narrow lead in GOP internal polling
Keown is not the only Georgia GOP challenger tossing around internal polling data. The campaign of Republican state legislator Austin Scott have also released internals showing a Democratic incumbent with a mid-single digit edge. The slightly dusty poll (late July) from American Viewpoint puts incumbent Democrat Jim Marshall at 44%, with Scott five points back at 39%. Marshall survived a close challenge against Mac Collins in 2006 before winning by a wider margin in 2008.
GA-12: Primary challenger not done with John Barrow yet
Democratic Congressman John Barrow thought he was done with Savannah-area former legislator Regina Thomas when he defeated her 59-41 in July's Democratic primary. Evidently, Barrow was wrong. Thomas is evidently preparing a write-in campaign for Congress in the 12th district, where Barrow is pretty strongly favored over lightly-funded Republican challenger Ray McKinney. Thomas argued that Barrow's capitulation to the right on far too many issues necessitated her staying in the race.
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: GOP pollster releases data in twelve districts
Ayers McHenry and Associates, in what appears to be an ongoing series, has released numbers in twelve potentially vulnerable Democratic districts. Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the partisan nature of the pollster, the numbers are pretty bleak for the Democrats, although they do maintain leads in half of those districts. Below are the trial heat numbers for each district, in alphabetical order:
CT-04: Rep. Jim Himes (D) 46%, Dan Debicella (R) 42%
CT-05: Rep. Chris Murphy (D) 49%, Mark Greenberg (R) 39%+
FL-24: Craig Miller (R) 44%, Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D) 41%
NY-20: Rep. Scott Murphy (D) 45%, Chris Gibson (R) 40%
NY-23: Rep. Bill Owens (D) 41%, Matt Doheny (R) 39%++
NY-25: Rep. Dan Maffei (D) 44%, Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 41%
PA-03: Mike Kelly (R) 52%, Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D) 38%
PA-10: Tom Marino (R) 52%, Rep. Chris Carney (D) 37%
PA-11: Lou Barletta (R) 52%, Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) 41%
PA-12: Tim Burns (R) 44%, Rep. Mark Critz (D) 40%
VA-05: Rob Hurt (R) 49%, Rep. Tom Perriello (D) 43%
WV-03: Rep. Nick Rahall (D) 53%, Spike Maynard (R) 37%
(+)--Greenberg defeated in primary by Sam Caliguiri
(++)--Doheny could still lose GOP primary to Doug Hoffman
Despite being partisan numbers, only a couple of these strike me as starkly out of whack. NY-25, for one: when Buerkle's own leaked internals had her down nine, I am not sure I am buying a toss-up here. Also, I wonder a lot about that PA-12 poll, wondering what could have happened to cause Critz to bleed more than a dozen points in just three months.
The National Review, who were among the first to post these numbers, hinted that more numbers are to come in the Midwest and the West.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CO-Gov: Tancredo's main target might not be the Democrat
Much like the RGA took dead aim at the Independent candidate in Massachusetts (even to the extent that they largely left incumbent Democrat Deval Patrick alone for a while), it appears that right-wing Independent Tom Tancredo is more interested in destroying Republican Dan Maes than Democrat John Hickenlooper in Colorado. Check out his first blast fundraising email, which knocks Hick a bit, but really takes a big cut at the GOP nominee:
Last week, Colorado's Republicans had the unenviable task of choosing from two of the worst candidates in recent memory.
In the contest choosing which candidate was less embarrassing, Dan Maes barely won. But what kind of candidate is Dan Maes?
Maes claims to be an executive and yet he has had no executive experience.
He claims to be a businessman but made less than the poverty level the past two years.
Maes boasts about his record as police officer in Kansas where he was fired after only a short period of time.
He claims to be against amnesty, but a few short months ago he was for it.
Incredibly, the Maes campaign has reported that over $42,000 in campaign contributions were slipped directly into his own pockets for "mileage reimbursement."
In short, Maes is a man with no discernible credentials to be a candidate, much less a Governor.
It is not hard to see Tancredo's gambit here. Since Maes has made it pretty clear that he is not stepping aside, the only way that Tancredo can win is by turning Maes into a footnote. While Democrat Hickenlooper has enjoyed huge leads in recent polling, the combined Maes-Tancredo vote is only a few points behind Hick's share of the vote. Which is why it is incumbent on Tancredo to end Maes, and vice versa. Expect the internecine warfare to continue, with John Hickenlooper as the primary political beneficiary.
FL-Gov: Race heats up as campaign heads into final week
There is no shortage of news emanating from the Sunshine State, as the heated (and on the GOP side, ugly) battle for Governor of the state heads into the final week of the primary season. Bill McCollum, whose campaign was on a bit of a shoestring at the last, has saved nearly $1.3 million for the final surge. But that pales in comparison to GOP rival Rick Scott, who has cut himself a check for $3.7 million for one last, light-eclipsing campaign ad surge. That brings Scott's total to roughly $38 million when all is said and done. Meanwhile, a new poll out from McLaughlin and Associates (on behalf of the Chamber of Commerce) shows that Scott's profligate spending may well be for naught. The pollster shows McCollum up double digits on Scott (45-33), as the campaign heads into its final days.
Meanwhile, Democrat Alex Sink has made news of her own, as she has given the nod to Gainesville-area former state senator Rod Smith as her choice to be state Lt. Governor. Smith won a very respectable 41% of the vote in his own bid for the office back in 2006 against former Congressman Jim Davis.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
A quiet day for the House of Ras, with two Senate races getting the Ras-sy treatment. Both of them show big leads for Republicans in races that most folks deem as competitive match-ups. In Ras's defense, independent pollsters (Ipsos and PPP) have shown similar numbers in both races over the past week.
OH-Sen: Rob Portman (R) 45%, Lee Fisher (D) 37%
PA-Sen: Patrick Toomey (R) 46%, Joe Sestak (D) 37%