August 18, 2010
"It's the Monica Lewinsky ploy."
-- Grover Norquist, quoted by
Time, arguing that the Ground Zero mosque controversy is distracting from the core Republican message in the same way that the Monica Lewinsky scandal distracted Republicans in 1998.
A new
Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania finds Tom Corbett (R) is still the strong favorite to be the next governor, leading Dan Onorato (D), 48% to 35%.
The reason: "Corbett has a massive lead with independents (52-20), is winning over an unusually high number of Democrats (22%), and has his party pretty well unified around him (74-10). Add to that a Democratic base in the state that's less than excited about voting this year and it's the equation for a double digit lead."
A new
Public Policy Polling survey in Illinois shows Bill Brady (R) leading Gov. Pat Quinn (D) in the race for governor, 39% to 30%, with Green Party candidate Rich Whitney at 11%.
Key takeaway: "There's certainly still room for Quinn to come back but it's going to depend on whether people vote based on their feelings about the candidates themselves or just choose on party."
A new
SurveyUSA poll shows Republicans on their way to winning the top two races in Kansas.
In the U.S. Senate race, Jerry Moran (R) is crushing Lisa Johnston (D), 69% to 23%.
In the race for governor, Sam Brownback (R) is way ahead of Tom Holland (D), 67% to 25%.
Matthew Yglesias:
"It occurred to me today that there's at least some chance that in
January of 2011 the US Senate will have 49 Democrats, Joe Lieberman,
Charlie Crist, and 49 Republicans. Which is to say that Lieberman &
Crist could form a two-man caucus, hold the balance of power, and drive
organization of the Senate. Crist could leapfrog seniority and chair a
committee. And if it looked like that might happen, mightn't it make
sense for Northeastern moderate Republicans (Snowe, Collins, Brown,
Castle) and Southern moderate Democrats (Landrieu, Pryor, Hagan) to join
their rebellion against the two party system?"
Ezra Klein: "One political question about the Ground Zero Islamic complex/mosque/theater-space/swimming pool: Why are Republicans trumpeting this? And why, a week or two ago, did they start talking about the 14th amendment? Republicans are going to win a lot of seats this year. And they're going to do it on the backs of the economy. Getting into social issues -- particularly social issues that might anger minorities -- is a dangerous play. It loses them long-term votes that they just don't need to lose. It paints their party as intolerant and opportunistic. And it's unnecessary: It's not like they're hurting for things to talk about."
A
Sunshine State News Poll in Florida shows the Republican primary for governor very close. Rick Scott (R) edges Bill McCollum (R) by two points, 44% to 42%, among likely voters in next Tuesday's primary election.
While Scott is ahead, the poll finds what most others have found recently: McCollum has surged over the last month to make the race competitive again.
A new
Reuters/Ipsos poll in Kentucky finds Rand Paul (R) with a five point lead over Jack Conway (D), 45% to 40%.
Key finding: "The poll found Kentucky Republicans do not enjoy the big advantage in campaign enthusiasm found in other state and national polls. Republicans lead Democrats only 59 percent to 57 percent in having a high level of interest in the race."
A new
Rasmussen survey in Nevada shows Sen. Harry Reid (D) in a dead heat with challenger Sharron Angle (R) in the U.S. Senate race with both getting 47% support.
A new Quinnipiac poll shows the "insiders" in Florida have overtaken the "outsiders" in two key primary races next week.
In the Republican primary for governor, Bill McCollum (R) leads Rick Scott (R) among likely voters, 44% to 35%, reversing an eleven point lead he held late last month.
In the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) leads Jeff Greene (D) among likely voters, 35% to 28%, reversing a ten point lead Greene has last month.
Said pollster Peter Brown: "The empire strikes back, actually both empires, that is, the folks who run the Democratic and Republican parties in Florida have waded into the nomination fights and they are making a difference."
August 17, 2010
A new
Market Research Institute poll in Louisiana shows primary challenger Chet Traylor (R) could stop Sen. David Vitter (R) from capturing the GOP nomination in Aug. 28 primary election.
Vitter leads Traylor, 46% to 34% with 21% still undecided, but below the 50% he would need to avoid a run off.
"Let us be clear about one thing: The tea party movement is not seeking a junior partnership with the Republican Party, but a hostile takeover of it."
-- Former House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R) and Matt Kibbe, in a
Wall Street Journal op-ed.
The
Cook Political Report raised its House forecast "from a Republican net gain of between 32 and 42 seats to a gain of between 35 and 45 seats, with the odds of an outcome larger than that range greater than the odds of a lesser outcome."
Republicans would need a net turnover of 39 seats to take control of the chamber.
"At this point, only 214 House seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic, while 181 seats are Solid, Likely or Lean Republican, and 40 seats are in the Toss Up column. While this would imply an advantage for Democrats, given the continuous erosion we have seen in dozens of contests so far this cycle, races shifting from Solid and Likely Democrat to Lean Democratic and Toss Up, we would be surprised if there was not more movement over the 78 days from now until Election Day."
In an interview with the
Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, Wisconsin U.S. Senate candidate Ron Johnson (R) claimed "extreme weather phenomena were better explained by sunspots than an overload of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as many scientists believe."
Said Johnson: "I absolutely do not believe in the science of man-caused climate change. It's not proven by any stretch of the imagination... It's far more likely that it's just sunspot activity or just something in the geologic eons of time."
He also insisted excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere "gets sucked down by trees and helps the trees grow."
A new
DailyKos/Public Policy Polling survey in Missouri shows Roy Blunt (R) beating Robin Carnahan (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 38%.
A new
Public Policy Polling survey in Illinois finds Alexi Giannoulias (D) edging Rep. Mark Kirk (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 37% to 35%, with Green party candidate LeAlan Jones at 9%.
Most interesting finding: "Both candidates continue to be very unpopular. Giannoulias' favorability is 26/42 and Kirk's is 26/34. Independents have a negative opinion of both of them, and each of them is viewed more unfavorably by voters of the opposite party than they are favorably by their own party base."
Former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich was found guilty on one count of giving a false statement to federal agents but the jury couldn't reach a unanimous decision on the other 23 counts, the
Chicago Sun Times reports.
Said Blagovevich: "This was a persecution. They threw everything they
could at me. The jury agreed the government did not prove its case."
The judge said he intends to declare a mistrial on the undecided counts, however, federal prosecutors told the judge it is "absolutely our intention to retry this'' until there is a conclusion.
A new
Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania finds Pat Toomey (R) leading Joe Sestak (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 36%.
"This is our first poll of the race explicitly surveying likely voters
and given the considerably greater enthusiasm on the Republican side
we're seeing an electorate in the state that voted for John McCain by a
point in 2008, in contrast to Barack Obama's actual 10 point victory in
the state. "
A new
Rasmussen survey shows Toomey leading 46% to 37%.
"The new politics -- it's no longer good enough to beat you on policy. They have to completely drown you and put you in prison and destroy your family and your reputation and finances, then dance on your grave."
-- Former Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX), quoted by the
New York Times, on the Justice Department dropping a corruption investigation into his dealings with a former lobbyist.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates is expected to leave his post in the spring of 2011,
CNN reports.
"According to the senior administration official, Gates privately promised President Barack Obama he would not leave the Cabinet in 2010 in order to maintain stability at the Pentagon while more U.S. forces are heading to Afghanistan. In addition, the senior official said, Gates does not want a potentially difficult confirmation battle for his successor to take place in the presidential election year of 2012."
The corporate parent of Fox News gave $1 million to the Republican Governors Association this year,
Bloomberg reports.
Ben Smith: "The company's media outlets play politics more openly than most, but the huge contribution to a party committee is a new step toward an open identification between Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. and the GOP."
Peter Beinart: "Words I never thought I'd write: I pine for George W. Bush. Whatever his flaws, the man respected religion, all religion. Maybe it was because he had been an addict himself, and knew from hanging around prisons that Allah had saved as many broken souls as Jesus Christ. Until a month or so ago, I genuinely believed that the American right had become a religiously ecumenical place. Right-wing Baptists loved right-wing Catholics and they both loved right-wing Orthodox Jews. All you had to do to join the big tent was denounce feminists, Hollywood, and gays. But when push came to shove, Sarah Palin didn't care about Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf's position on gay marriage. In today's GOP, even bigotry doesn't spare you from bigotry. I wonder what Mitt Romney was thinking, as he added his voice to the anti-Muslim chorus. He surely knows that absent the religious right's hostility to Mormons, he'd likely have been the GOP's 2008 presidential nominee. I look forward to his paeans to religious freedom when anti-Mormonism rears its head again in 2012."
"The GOP blueprint for winning control of the House is rapidly coming into focus, with the National Republican Congressional Committee readying a $22 million TV ad blitz aimed at a handful of powerful, long-serving incumbents and several dozen of the most junior members of the Democratic majority,"
Politico reports.
The Republican campaign arm "will invest in 40 districts around the nation in its first wave of television commercial reservations."
First Read: "But this also underscores the GOP's challenge in picking up the net 39 House seats it needs to take back the House in November: Because Republicans likely aren't going to win in all of these 40 districts, they're banking on outside groups -- and, more importantly, a wave -- to win control of the House."
The Hotline: "Having more money - as the Dems do - is always better than having less.
But if you look at how much the NRCC is planning to spend per race
compared to the DCCC, they are approaching parity."
Voters in Washington state and Wyoming head to the polls today, "with the Senate contest in Washington and a battle for the open Wyoming governor's seat the most closely watched races of the day,"
CNN reports.
In Washington, Sen. Patty Murray (D) and challenger Dino Rossi (R) "are expected to emerge from a crowded primary field, setting up a November showdown. Under the state's system, the two candidates who receive the most votes regardless of party affiliation move on to the general election. Voting has been underway for two weeks, with Washington primarily a mail-in ballot state."
In Wyoming, Republicans "are hoping to reclaim the governor's mansion as Democrat Dave Freudenthal leaves office. Seven Republicans are competing for the GOP nomination, while five Democrats are running for their party's nod."
Polls in Washington close at 11:00 pm ET. They close at 9:00 pm ET in Wyoming.
A new
Susquehanna poll in Florida shows Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) leading Jeff Greene (D) in next week's Democratic U.S. Senate primary, 45% to 30%, with Maurice Ferre (D) way back at 8%.
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