Some pundits, and Hillary's team, have been arguing that Obama hasn't won enough "big states," so that means he can't beat McCain in the general election. I've been thinking about this, and something doesn't add up.
The notion that Obama (or Hillary, for that matter) loses a state to another Dem challenger in a primary, and therefore they will lose that state to John McCain in the general election, is based on some pretty faulty logic. It assumes that all of those Democratic voters who voted for the non-Obama Democrat will now vote for McCain in the fall because they can't have Hillary (or will vote for McCain in the fall if they can't have Obama). Why is it not possible, and highly likely I would argue, that the overwhelming majority of Democrats (and Independents) are going to vote for the Democratic candidate in the primary AND the fall general election regardless of whether that candidate is Hillary, Obama, or Mickey Mouse? I know I will.
And what success really depends on is how many Dem voters are in the state as compared to GOP voters, and which way independents will swing. If we outnumber them, we'll likely win. If they outnumber us, they'll likely win. (It doesn't really matter if my guy or your guy wins the Dem primary but Dems are only 1% of the voters in the state and Republicans are 99% - then both of our guys are gonna lose in the fall.) The second factor is whether Democratic voters will abandon our candidate should their first choice no longer be on the ballot. Only Hillary and Obama can tell us whether they plan on trying to unify the party or split it come the fall.
It's a bit like offering me a choice of my two favorite desserts, brownies or chocolate chip cookies. I'd probably take the cookies, but that doesn't mean that a week from now, when the cookies are all gone, I'd turn down the brownies in spite and choose spinach instead. Okay, a bit sophomoric, but you get the point. It's presumptuous, and wrong, to assume that Democrats will become Republicans simply because they can't get their first choice. Or more generally, it's wrong to assume that a vote for Hillary is a vote against Obama (or vice versa). The overwhelming majority of us are going to vote for the Democrat, period. Not only is John McCain not our second choice, he's not even on the menu.
(UPDATE From Joe: I went back and looked at the results of primaries in 1992, which were much less competitive than this year. Bill Clinton lost the
primaries/caucuses in Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont, but won them all in
November, 1992.)
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