Bill O'Reilly says he has "a measure of respect" for Obama

Yet another conservative/Republican going soft as the election approaches. It seems everyone wants to be Obama's friend nowadays. Now why is that?

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Send me your best political Halloween photos

I want to see what folks are doing for Halloween that's political. Feel free to share your pics, and I'll post the best. Thanks, JOHN

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Her Royal Highness Lady Lynn de Redneck says we must vote for McCain to help the rich

I kid you not. She wrote a piece today whining about how unfair Obama's tax plan is because it focuses on the rich. Uh, ixnay on the ichray, my lady. I don't think McCain wants his main argument with Obama's tax plan to be that Obama is taxing the super-rich while McCain will be better for the super-rich. Considering most of us just loss 40% of our retirement - well, those of us without "de" in our names (even by marriage) - we don't want to hear how great John McCain is because he'll protect the super wealthy. Man, it's no wonder McCain banished Lady Redneck to a secret undisclosed location. The golden foot just keeps jumping into that mouth. Read More......

Charlie Cook: Without an act of God, Obama is going to win

As always, he won't win if people don't turn out and vote. Let's never forget losing Florida, and the 2000 election, by only 500 and some votes. More from First Read:

Political analyst Charlie Cook writes that, unless there’s divine intervention, McCain is probably going down to defeat. “Say what you will about the campaign he has waged and the running mate he picked, but the collapse in credit markets and the stock market may very well have ended his chances of victory, notwithstanding anything he could have said or done differently. The senator from Arizona is a good man, who served his country admirably. And many would say that he deserved a better chance than he got.”

Why? Why did he deserve a better chance? Did we force McCain to pick a blithering idiot as his running mate? Did we force him to go all Karl Rove and destroy his own brand he spent decades building? Did we force John McCain to flash his anger one too many times? Did we make John McCain erratic?

Why is it somehow unfair to expect John McCain to compete in America as it is? Was it unfair for Democrats to have to win elections in the immediate aftermath of September 11? America has serious economic problems and the country doesn't trust Republicans, or John McCain specifically, on this issue. That's John McCain's fault, and no one else's. Read More......

It's the media's fault that Palin is a blithering idiot

I mean, I have to give the conservatives some credit - they have an impossible task dealing with Sarah Palin's ongoing gaffes and overall idiocy. But to suggest, as they now are, that the media is to blame for all the anti-Palin stories of the past two months, kind of misses the larger point. Much of the news about Palin has been negative because she has had her share, and then some, of scandal, gaffes and overall idiocy. She's one of the worst vice presidential picks in American history, and has a definite knack for revealing the worst in herself. She quite literally is bad news.

Oh, and I did particularly love this quote from Palin:

“I mean, talk about my wardrobe and never talking about the male candidate's wardrobe. Or the questions posed to me of how I will be able to serve in office and still raise a family. I've never heard that asked of a male candidate,” she said.

Show of hands: How many male candidates bought $150,000 in clothes in one month? Come on, keep those hands up. Also, the Republicans had a field day with Bill Clinton's and John Edwards' supposedly expensive haircuts. So spare us the victim lecture. (Oh, and John McCain has had his $500 Italian shoes mocked too.) Read More......

Ted Stevens in alternative universe

Is reality that different up in Alaska? Sarah Palin said she did nothing wrong when she clearly violated ethics laws. Now Ted Stevens says he wasn't convicted. Huh? From the Anchorage Daily News:

With just four days before the election and Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens insisting he's not a felon, the U.S. Senate race is white hot.

"I've not been convicted yet," Stevens said Thursday in a meeting with the editorial board of the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. "There's not a black mark by my name yet, until the appeal is over and I am finally convicted, if that happens. If that happens, of course I'll do what's right for Alaska and for the Senate. ... I don't anticipate it happening, and until it happens I do not have a black mark."

Stevens reiterated that position during a televised debate late Thursday night, declaring early in the give-and-take with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, "I have not been convicted of anything."

But wait, I thought Ted Stevens was convicted and even Republicans were asking him to resign? Seems that the Anchorage Daily News is living in the same world I am:

A Washington, D.C., jury Monday convicted Stevens of seven felony counts of lying on financial disclosure forms about thousands of dollars of gifts and home renovations from Veco Corp.
...
Senate Republicans including minority leader McConnell have said Stevens should resign. So has Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, and her running mate, John McCain.

Ted Stevens has completely lost it. How can anyone in Alaska vote for a convicted felon? Help Mark Begich defeat Stevens and bring Alaska back into reality.

UPDATE: DailyKos has recent polling info from Alaska. Read More......

McCain seems to refuse to say that Palin is qualified as president

This is the face McCain makes when talking about the possibility of Palin becoming president.



Now watch this quick 20 second clip. McCain seems comfortable saying that Palin will make a good VP, but then he talks about her possibly becoming president, and he freezes mid-sentence. Watch it.

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Great new ad from the No on Prop 8 campaign -- and this campaign is making James Dobson cry

UPDATE 4:58 PM: Literally just got an email from the No on Prop 8 campaign with this message:

This morning's Field Poll carries news that Prop 8 is narrowly losing, 44 to 49%.

This initiative battle is razor thin. We know that 7 to 10% of voters are still up for grabs.

And Tim Gill and Scott Miller will match your donation up to $100,000 if you respond NOW.

We really want Prop 8 to lose. And, right now, any contribution will be matched, meaning its value is doubled. So, if you've been thinking about donating, do it now. Keep the very powerful new ad running.
_________________

Today, we learned from the Field Poll that the "No on Prop 8" side has a slight lead in the latest Field Poll. The No campaign launched a powerful new ad narrated by Samuel L. Jackson.



Help run this ad. Donate to the No on 8 campaign. Prop 8 is making James Dobson cry -- literally:

On his radio show today, Focus on the Family's James Dobson announced that he would be on hand at The Call in San Diego's Qualcomm Stadium on Saturday as part of the last drive by anti-gay activists to rally support for California's Proposition 8, which, if passed, would amend the state's constitution to take away the right of same-sex couples to marry.

Dobson lives in Colorado, of course, but he believes the rejection of Proposition 8 will lead to the downfall of Western civilization, as he tearfully laid out on his radio program today.

Really make him cry. Make those tears real. Help defeat the hateful Prop 8. Read More......

Obama stops palling around with cultists

Let's face it, he really had no choice - it was only a matter of time before John McCain and Sarah Palin started complaining about Obama palling around the country with known cultists. Read More......

Reagan's Chief of Staff will vote for Obama, trashes McCain's judgment for picking Palin

Another prominent Republican dumps McCain:

Former Reagan chief of staff Ken Duberstein told CNN's Fareed Zakaria this week he intends to vote for Democrat Barack Obama on Tuesday.

Duberstein said he was influenced by another prominent Reagan official - Colin Powell - in his decision.

"Well let's put it this way - I think Colin Powell's decision is in fact the good housekeeping seal of approval on Barack Obama."

And, Duberstein was brutal -- just brutal -- about McCain's pick of Palin on MSNBC. For example, a job at McDonald's requires more interviews than Palin had:

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Memories

Village Voice:

''[The Wall Street Journal's John Fund] was supposed to spend Thanksgiving with me and didn't,'' she recalls. ''I questioned him when he got home and he beat me up. I was cowering in the corner. He was screaming. He said, 'Get out, bitch,' and he left, and I called the police. He came back and beat me up again. When the police arrived, I was shaking and crying and very upset. He was very calm. A lady officer walked in and asked me if I was on drugs. John told me that none of the charges would stick.'' In mid January, the mainstream media first reported on Fund's alleged abuse.

Around that time, Pillbury says, she moved out and Fund agreed to give her money to help pay her bills. He watched her write checks from his account and deposit them in her account. Soon after, she says, ''I found out that my accounts were frozen and he told me that they were going to stay frozen until I contacted these members of the media and gave them papers saying that I had lied about the abuse.'' She says the bank did not return her calls. Says Pillsbury-Foster, ''This is obviously part of a pattern of abuse and attempted control, and yet the D.A. refused to listen to her.''

SF Chronicle:

The California Federation of Republican Women holds its big two-day conference down in Ontario (San Bernardino County) over the weekend -- but the private buzz isn't about President Bush, it's about John Fund. If the name escapes you, he's the Wall Street Journal's online columnist who -- after taking aim at Bill Clinton's sexual exploits -- wound up with his own tabloid troubles. Fund's fun in the sun began with an affair with Melinda Pillsbury-Foster some two decades ago. It ended in 1998 when Fund took up with Pillsbury-Foster's grown daughter, who accused him of getting her pregnant and then asking her to have an abortion -- all of which he's denied. Fund was later charged with domestic abuse, but a judge dismissed the case in December.

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Poll: Obama/McCain tied in Arizona, McCain would lose Senate seat in AZ if election were today

More reasons why Obama started advertising in Arizona. A new poll from Daily Kos, two polls from Arizona - the first McCain vs Obama, the second McCain's Senate race in 2010:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 47

Early voters (17 percent of sample)

McCain (R) 42
Obama (D) 54

I can't believe we may actually win Arizona. And I have a bonus treat for you guys:

If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Janet Napolitano the Democrat and John McCain the Republican?

McCain (R) 45
Napolitano (D) 53

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Top McCain supporter blisters Palin

Of course she's not ready, says Republican former Secretary of State (and McCain supporter) Lawrence Eagleburger, and he "devoutly hopes" she's never "tested" in the presidency.

You vote for McCain, you vote for the blithering idiot to very possible take over the presidency some time in the next 4 years, if McCain dies in office. If you don't value your 401k or your safety or your country, vote for McCain and be prepared for another Bush administration, with all the extremism and idiocy wrapped in one.

Note from Jacki: Nico and Sam report McCain's response to Eagleburger's comments:

McCain is asked to respond to Eagleburger's remarks during an appearance on Good Morning America Friday. And... he's not troubled by them.

"Larry has never had a chance to meet Sarah," he says.

McCain's starting to sound like that girlfriend of yours who's dating a guy you know - and all your friends know - is bad news. And everyone who meets him thinks he's a nightmare, but she keeps insisting you just don't know him like she does. It's pathetic. Read More......

Wasilla is having a sale on rape kits

We hired my good friend Andy Cobb to produce a few pre-election videos. Here is the first, about our favorite topic. Read more about how Sarah Palin charged rape victims for their own forensic exams, then make sure you rate this video and favorite it on the YouTube page here. And send this URL to your friends, so they can see the video too: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxCQpPCTjj8

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Early voting going well in FL, GA, and NC

Following up on Joe's post below about the expanded ad campaign map, there are a couple of key early voting indicators that are giving the Obama campaign reason and encouragement:

• Early voting in Georgia has been encouraging to the campaign and helped put them on the air. It's not like the Obama campaign hasn't been active in Georgia, they have over 4,800 neighborhood captains.
• In Florida, roughly 1/4 of of early voting is "sporadic" Democrats - i.e. registered Democrats who may not have voted in the last Presidential.
• Similar story in North Carolina - 19% of Democrats have never voted in a General Election before.
• The campaign believes that early voting is going to be a predictor of the turnout on election day - the electorate who votes early isn't going to look much different from the electorate who shows up on election day. As a result, they are modifying their turnout models.

You need very complex data analytics to be able to talk to this level of detail and that takes months of planning. Once you're in the middle of the fight though, it really becomes beneficial letting you make very educated guesses about the kinds of opportunities out there to capitalize on. Read More......

Obama campaign going on the air in Georgia, North Dakota -- and Arizona

On a conference call to give the state of the race, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe just announced that the campaign is going on the air in three additional states: Georgia, North Dakota and Arizona. The campaign has organizations on the ground in all of those states and has seen "movement."

In Georgia and North Dakota, the campaign will be running the "Rear view" ad. In Arizona, it's the positive closer.

This is a big development.

Just this morning, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported on the prospect of t.v. adverstising in that state:

The latest polls show the Obama-McCain race to be neck-and-neck —- one poll showed McCain ahead by 1 point, another had him up by 5 but yet another had him down by 3. And while the race for Georgia’s 15 electoral votes is tight, neither side appears to be investing significant cash or resources to win it in the final days. Neither campaign has announced visits by the candidates or their top surrogates. As of Thursday, neither had bought last-minute television advertising here.

And that, Matt Towery believes, is a real mistake for the Obama campaign.

“If the Obama campaign goes on the air with television advertising in this city, in this state, beginning this week to Election Day, Barack Obama will win Georgia,” said Towery, the former Republican state lawmaker and CEO of Atlanta-based InsiderAdvantage. “If he doesn’t go on TV, Obama will lose Georgia. It’s that simple.”

If it's that simple, then the Obama campaign is making a very important move. Also, this can really help Jim Martin defeat that nasty Saxby Chambliss in the Georgia Senate race. So, it's doubly beneficial. In Georgia, the Obama campaign has a strong organization and, according to Plouffe, "early vote is going extremely well."

And, Arizona. Love that. Read More......

McCain has to defend Arizona

The polls in Arizona have tightened to the point where John McCain is spending resources into his home state -- and has even planned a campaign stop there on Monday. First, the resources:

Earlier this week, the McCain campaign and the Republican National Committee paid for negative robo-calls in the state, telling voters Obama’s election “invites a major international crisis he will be unprepared to handle alone.

Now, the campaign stop:

Sen. John McCain will be in Prescott on election eve, according to the Yavapai County Republican Party.

He plans to attend the party's annual Victory Rally at approximately 9 p.m. Monday on the historic courthouse plaza. The rally starts at 6 p.m. and typically attracts Republican elected officials from around the state.

Presidential candidates don't go events in their home state before election day unless it's absolutely necessary. Bush and Kerry were still out in battleground states stumping on Election Day in 2004. But, for McCain, it sounds like it is absolutely necessary to campaign in Arizona.

Also, according to CNN, the Obama campaign and MoveOn are taking Arizona seriously, now, too:

MoveOn.org said Thursday it was launching its ‘Obamacan’ ad statewide on broadcast and cable in response. The ad features a life-long Republican who supports Obama.

The Obama campaign sent its supporters in the state a message from national field director Jon Carson calling for volunteers, and pointing to reports McCain was "struggling in his own backyard."

“Supporters like you have put us within striking distance. Now it's time to pull off what no one expected,” said Carson.

This is a major development in the presidential race. McCain's state has become very competitive. But, remember, yesterday on the TODAY Show, NBC's Chuck Todd said Arizona would be a battleground -- in four years. The pundits have to focus on Pennsylvania because the McCain campaign told them to focus on Pennsylvania. Read More......

Friday Morning Open Thread

Good morning.

Four days.

This is the last weekend to make change. "Drive for Change." Call for Change. After eight long, painful years, this it it. Let's give it all we've got.

And, it's Halloween. Thanks to Jonathan for sending this picture of his pumpkin:


YES. WE. CAN.

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Global stock markets on target for worst month in history

Of course, history for Republicans today is a much shorter period of time compared to history for the Republicans of yesteryear. Theoretically there could have been worse periods in the market before Jesus walked with dinosaurs but it's not mentioned in the Bible and therefore we just don't know. From Reuters:

Shares in Asia and Europe fell on Friday, heading for their worst month ever, while the low-yielding yen surged as Japan's interest rate cut failed to erase concerns about the deteriorating global economic outlook.

The Bank of Japan joined a global easing cycle by trimming interest rates by 20 basis points to 0.3 percent, but disappointed many who had expected a bigger quarter point cut.

The move followed the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates to 1 percent -- its lowest level since June 2004 -- to stave off a prolonged recession. China, Hong Kong and Taiwan also lowered the cost of borrowing this week, with the euro zone, Australia and Britain seen following suit next week.

However, investors feared a round of rate cuts was not enough to stem the flow of worsening corporate earnings and bolster consumer consumption in major economies which might be already in recession.

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Oh, so now the banks want to talk about credit card debt

Funny how impending doom can change their minds. This remains an industry that is just begging to be regulated. The Republicans were more than happy to give this industry everything they wanted including holding careless credit card holders accountable for eternity but suddenly when the tables are turned, look at who suddenly wants to work with consumer groups. That's great, but let's remember this when the industry is back and starts looking for new ways to hold everyone else accountable for reckless spending.

The next time credit card companies want to send out pre-approved credit cards to 2 year old kids (as happened with a friend) or giving out cards to people who they knew could never make payments, remember who sent the cards in the first place.

Big banks have formed an unusual alliance with consumer advocates to urge the government to allow huge portions of credit card debt to be forgiven, a turnabout from recent years when the banking industry lobbied strenuously to make it harder for consumers to erase their credit card debts in bankruptcy.

The new pilot program — which the banks hope will become permanent — could involve as many as 50,000 people struggling with credit card debt. On an individual basis, the amount of debt to be forgiven would rise according to the severity of the borrower's financial situation, up to a maximum of 40 percent.

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More big names cutting jobs

The credit crisis is reaching well beyond banks on Wall Street and the flow of big names and large cuts are coming almost every day. AmEx, who obviously is very connected to the credit crisis and Motorola are the latest. AmEx has announced 7,000 jobs and Motorola 3,000. Read More......

White House defends billions in bailout cash for bank dividends

Talk about spreading the wealth...to the rich.

Lazear and other officials also sought to defend their handling of the bailout so far, responding to reports in The Washington Post that banks receiving money from the Treasury will be allowed to make dividend payments to shareholders and that officials are considering federal guarantees for as much as $600 billion in distressed mortgages.

During a media briefing, Lazear emphasized that the bailout legislation does not bar participating banks from continuing to pay dividends at current levels.

"The law was quite specific on what rules to follow," Lazear said. ". . . We're going to follow the law and make sure there are not abuses, but we want to make sure we get the economy going."

On the overall $700 billion bailout plan, Lazear said: "Taxpayers will not lose significantly on this and may make some money."

Making money remains to be seen but the bigger problem here is not what is legal, but what is acceptable. Giving taxpayer cash to fund dividends is rubbish. That is hardly the reason why we're injecting the cash so to throw legal BS out there does nothing to address the already simmering hostility to the rescue plan. Read More......

Exxon sets US profit record - $14.83 billion

Yes, this is who the Republican party wants to help out in every possible way. From CNN:

Exxon Mobil Corp. set a quarterly profit record for a U.S. company Thursday, surging past analyst estimates.

Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), the leading U.S. oil company, said its third-quarter net profit was $14.83 billion, or $2.86 per share, up from $9.41 billion, or $1.70, a year earlier. That profit included $1.45 billion in special items.

Exxon's prior record was $11.68 billion in the second quarter of 2008.

The company said its revenue totaled $137.7 billion in the third quarter.

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AIG plowing through billions and billions

What a sinkhole. Something is very wrong at AIG and the pie-in-the-sky dreams of big returns were so wrong, but then again, weren't the same Republicans wrong about this entire credit crisis? AIG is going to be a very costly loss for the taxpayers but somehow, the former CEO is still able to sell off a billion dollars worth of stock.

The American International Group is rapidly running through $123 billion in emergency lending provided by the Federal Reserve, raising questions about how a company claiming to be solvent in September could have developed such a big hole by October. Some analysts say at least part of the shortfall must have been there all along, hidden by irregular accounting.

“You don’t just suddenly lose $120 billion overnight,” said Donn Vickrey of Gradient Analytics, an independent securities research firm in Scottsdale, Ariz.

Mr. Vickrey says he believes A.I.G. must have already accumulated tens of billions of dollars worth of losses by mid-September, when it came close to collapse and received an $85 billion emergency line of credit by the Fed. That loan was later supplemented by a $38 billion lending facility.

But losses on that scale do not show up in the company’s financial filings. Instead, A.I.G. replenished its capital by issuing $20 billion in stock and debt in May and reassured investors that it had an ample cushion. It also said that it was making its accounting more precise.

Mr. Vickery and other analysts are examining the company’s disclosures for clues that the cushion was threadbare and that company officials knew they had major losses months before the bailout.

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Mexican-American soap star surprises many by coming out anti-gay

A Mexican-American soap opera star has surprised, and angered, many by coming out in favor of the anti-gay ballot measure in California that would revoke the marriages of countless gay couples. You might have thought because of this star's particular background, in the soaps, he'd have a comfortable familiarity with gays. Then again, what better way to stop people asking questions about just how gay-friendly you are, than doing commercials for the biggest anti-gay bigots around. Perhaps it's time we learned more about this guy, his positions, and just more generally what's in his closet since he's so interested in peering into ours.

The good news is that Prop 8 is failing with Latino voters according to a press release we saw from the William C. Velasquez Institute (WCVI). The margin is 46% - 51%. (pdf of that poll can be found here.)

And, yes, one more nag: Contribute, please. We've passed $43,000 on our ActBlue page. Remember, the haters are giving millions -- $4.5 million already this week with the biggest chunk from Utah. And, one of the leading haters, James Dobson himself. will be in San Diego on Saturday to lead the charge against gay marriage. Read More......

Louisiana a "dead heat"???

OMG.

The political pundits have obsessed about Pennsylvania, because the McCain campaign told them to obsess about Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, the gap closed in Arizona, McCain's home state.

Now, a poll in another unlikely state shows a very close race -- Louisiana according to a poll from Loyola University for WAFB News:

While most polls show Democrat Barack Obama with a lead against Republican John McCain nationally, that's not the case in Louisiana, according to our poll. It shows the race is a dead heat in Louisiana, with 43% of voters saying they'll vote for McCain and 40% supporting Obama. With our poll's margin of error of plus or minus four-point-five percent, the results show a statistical dead heat.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (LOUISIANA)

MCCAIN: 43%
OBAMA: 40%
UNDECIDED/WON'T SAY: 17%
MARGIN OF ERROR: +/- 4.5%

The poll shows 93 percent of African American voters in Louisiana have a favorable opinion of Obama. "93 percent is almost total. It's unbelievable," Renwick said. "It's one of the highest percentages I've ever seen."

That's also pretty high undecided for five days out. There hasn't been a lot of polling in the state, but other earlier polls haven't shown the race this close (or with that many undecideds.)

Early voting has already ended in Louisiana. According to Dr. McDonald's site, 58.5% of early voters were Democrats compared to 28.4% Republicans. And, 36.3% of early voters were African-American (which is several points higher than average.) The early vote was double that of 2004. For a great backgrounder on Louisiana's voting registration, read this post.

So, Louisiana, according to a Louisiana based poll for a Louisiana t.v. station is a "dead heat." That might not capture the attention of the talking heads on cable news, but it sure intrigues me.

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Joe the Plumber calls McCain the "real" American in the election

Would Joe like to share his views on who in America isn't a real American? We already know he doesn't pay his taxes, thinks Social Security should have never been created, and is voting for McCain since Obama will be giving him a bigger tax cut. Then we learned that Joe got a country music agent who's talking about Joe possibly doing Home Depot ads, then running for congress. And now Joe is giving us insight into his views on which Americans are real and which aren't.

If we're going to start determining who is and isn't a real American, can we start with those who actually pay their taxes and don't have talent agents?? Read More......

Get off my lawn!

Those pesky Northeast lefty media types start young. If only she knew to bring donuts.

The Concord Monitor of New Hampshire recently interviewed local 8th grader Elizabeth Conway, who is a Scholastic Kid Reporter. Conway, who has met John McCain several times, said, "I interviewed McCain so many times he starts to notice my red shirt, because I have a uniform, and says 'I've answered her questions before.' It's almost like he's a little grumpy with me now."

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Obama Campaign's Closing Ads

Capping off last night's closing statement, the Obama campaign has released a final one-two ad punch - an uplifting view of our country's promise (with a very Morning in America feel), and a gut punch ad on John McCain's economic policies.

Something:


Rearview Mirror:


One of the benefits of having a large campaign budget is that you need to make fewer "either this or that" decisions. Do we go negative or stay positive? Obama has been able to do both.

On a related note, there has been a lot of griping by Republicans about Obama's not taking FEC public campaign funds. But let's not forget that every dollar Obama raises is still regulated by the FEC and capped at $2,300 per individual. Obama has the campaign budget he has today is because of the millions of people who donated to his campaign. Don't kid yourself Republicans - if John McCain thought for a second that his campaign could generate millions of donors you can be sure he would have opted to raise the money himself. Obama has more freedom to advertise than McCain because he earned it. Read More......

Early voters are new voters in NC and Georgia

John has some good info on early voting totals in the post below.

To monitor early and absentee voting, you have to check out this site written by Professor Michael McDonald. BrownSox at DailyKos has a great, crisp analysis today, too.

The McCain campaign is trying to dismiss the surge in early voting by claiming that most of those voting early would just be voting anyway. In other words, all the people showing up are just part of the existing voter pool, which has been polled and surveyed extensively. But, that's not accurate. Professor McDonald dismisses that spin, at least for Georgia and North Carolina, in an interview with the Washington Post:

One question is whether these early voters are just people who ordinarily would have voted on election day. Republicans have suggested that's the case. But there are some pieces of evidence to the contrary. The high percentage of African Americans voting early in Georgia undercuts the GOP argument.

McDonald has compared the list of early voters in North Carolina with the voter registration files. North Carolina allows, in essence, same day registration for early voters. What McDonald has discovered is that there are about 100,000 people who have voted early who were not previously on the voter lists.

That is very good news.

Also, McDonald was on Rachel Maddow's show last night to talk about early voting -- an issue of great concern to Ms. Maddow:

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Black turnout in Florida is looking huge

And high black turnout might give Obama an additional 4 points in North Carolina.

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Legal Adviser to Prop 8 Campaign Compares Gays Who Want to Get Married to Nazi Germany

Isn't California better than this?

The "No on Prop 8" campaign needs all the help it can get. Todd Beeton at MyDD has a "Call to Action" listing all the ways you can help. But, the best way right now, especially if you don't live in California, is to contribute. It's safe, secure -- and easy. We've raised over $40,000 from AMERICAblog readers -- almost at our goal of $50,000.

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Fun with Sarah Palin

Click through, then click around on the site (and turn your speakers up). It's been updated.

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Some conservatives getting ticked at Romney for trash-talking Palin

A conservative site warns Romney that he'll pay in 2012 for his team's attacks on Palin. I love the smell of civil war in the morning.

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Sen. Bond Warns Palin Crowd That Obama Wants Judges Who Empathize With “The Gay”

So much for John McCain not playing the gay card. Perhaps Senator Bond should have a look at Senator McCain's own staff before making disparaging comments about "the gay." (The gay? Since when did we become a plural people?) I do hope we'll see McCain distancing himself from these hateful, gay-baiting comments. And someone needs to ask the closet cases at Log Cabin what they think of their bff now gay-baiting.

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Hagan hits back on Dole

This is how a nimble campaign works. Yesterday we talked about the vile new ad that Elizabeth Dole has out against Kay Hagan. Today, the Hagan campaign released this ad:



Kay Hagan is right - "bearing false witness against fellow Christians" isn't very Christian. If you're going to call yourself a Christian then you should behave like one. As I mentioned yesterday, this issue is a big one in North Carolina.

This is how you respond to a bully - fight fire with fire. Elizabeth Dole hid her accusations behind grainy images and scary voice-overs. Kay Hagan went right to the public through the camera and hit back - hard. Help Kay Hagan run more of this ad in North Carolina and help us get closer to 60 in the Senate - donate. Read More......

Anyone else see the word "Blacks" in this McCain ad?

Our friend Ari caught it, and he's right. John McCain has just thrown out any honor he had left. It's amazing how Karl Rove's people have destroyed McCain and his brand. Utterly.

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Time/CNN polls show Obama leads in Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania

A poll fix from the morning. Today's numbers from Time/CNN:

Obama leads McCain among likely voters by 51% to 47% in Ohio, a four point margin that has not budged since last week's TIME's survey. But he now leads McCain 52% to 45% in Nevada and by 52% to 46% in North Carolina, margins which are both slightly larger than those reported by TIME in its surveys a week earlier.

The new statewide surveys also show Obama leading McCain in Pennsylvania, the key blue state in which McCain is making a last-ditch, major push to score an upset, by a comfortable 12 point margin of 55% to 43%. But he still trails his Republican rival in McCain's home state of Arizona by a seven-point margin of 46% to 53%.

The key now is turnout. That's all that matters. Getting these voters to the polls.

The Muhlenberg tracking poll of Pennsylvania shows Obama with a thirteen point lead today: 54% - 51%. Yesterday, Obama had an 11 point lead in that poll:

The Muhlenberg daily tracking poll, which has surveyed likely Pennsylvania voters since late September, shows McCain with an uphill climb to victory in Pennsylvania, an outcome the campaign views as essential to his chances of winning the White House.

Obama leads McCain 53 percent to 42 percent in the state, a margin that has remained steady since the candidates' last debate two weeks ago.

Chuck Todd finally found a Pennsylvania poll that confirms the McCain spin about Pennsylvania. Coincidentally, it is NBC's poll, by Mason-Dixon, showing a 4-point race: 47% - 43%. On the Today Show this morning, Todd also reported that NBC's poll of Arizona showed a 4 point lead for McCain: 48% - 44%. According to Todd, that means Pennsylvania is a "winnable" for McCain and a battleground. But, Arizona, with a 4-point lead for McCain (his home state where he's not breaking 50%, which is considered deadly for an incumbent running state-wide at this point in the cycle), will be a "battleground state in four years." Got that?

Also, CNN did a report this morning pondering whether we can trust the polls. That's a new meme among the political reporters these days. They obsess over polls, talk about polls non-stop and spend a ton of money on polls. But, now, to keep the suspense, they don't want us to believe those polls, which they report on endlessly.

Only five more days.

Here's the Pollster.com trend for Pennsylvania, which includes NBC/Mason-Dixon:

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McCain calls Biden "Joe the Biden"

And not intentionally, it would seem.

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McCain stood up by Joe the Plumber

McCain is in Ohio today - home of Joe the Plumber, John McCain's running mate for the last two weeks. McCain just threw a shout out to Joe, who was supposed to be there today. Well:



Oops - did someone get stood up? When Sarah Palin was in Ohio yesterday, Joe was there. Even Joe the Plumber gets that McCain is finished.

Maybe Joe was meeting with his PR team trying to get his country music deal. No matter, even Joe the Plumber has gotten what he can out of John McCain. Read More......

So, I'm still a bit confused about this Joe-the-Plumber thing

Let me get this straight. John McCain finds a guy to be his mascot for Americans who will be hurt under Obama's tax plan, when in fact Joe Mascot does better under Obama's plan than he does under McCain's. And to add insult to injury, Joe doesn't really pay all his taxes anyway - he's delinquent. But somehow that makes him a "hero" to Republicans, and it makes him John McCain's perfect mascot for the campaign - a guy who doesn't pay his taxes and who will benefit more from an Obama presidency. And now, "Joe" has hired a personal manager (read: agent) who hopes to get Joe doing Home Depot commercials and maybe even running for Congress (seriously). What's next, $150,000 outfits and $8,000 make-up jobs? Are there any Republicans left who appreciate the debasement of their party that is happening before their eyes? Read More......

Bush-McCain economy shrinks in Q3

If you like this, McCain will gladly provide more of the same.

The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter, its sharpest contraction in seven years as consumers cut spending and businesses reduced investment in the face of rising fears that recession was setting in.

Meanwhile, a separate report showed jobless claims were unchanged, staying at levels that signal a weak jobs market as the credit crisis hits hiring.

The Commerce Department said the third-quarter contraction in gross domestic product was the steepest since the corresponding quarter in 2001 though it was slightly less than the 0.5 percent rate of reduction that Wall Street economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast.

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Bush builds huge federal Ebola lab, with horrendously deadly bugs, in path of hurricane

You want pork, let's talk pork. This is John McCain's good buddy, George Bush's pork. And it's sickening.

Much of the University of Texas medical school on this island suffered flood damage during Hurricane Ike, except for one gleaming new building, a national biological defense laboratory that will soon house some of the most deadly diseases in the world.

How a laboratory where scientists plan to study viruses like Ebola and Marburg ended up on a barrier island where hurricanes regularly wreak havoc puzzles some environmentalists and community leaders...

Built atop concrete pylons driven 120 feet into the ground, the seven-floor laboratory was designed to stand up to 140-mile-an-hour winds. Its backup generators and high-security laboratories are 30 feet above sea level.

That's nice, because hurricanes never get any faster winds. Oh wait, they do. There's more:

The laboratory will do research into some of the nastiest diseases on the planet, among them Ebola, anthrax, tularemia, West Nile virus, drug-resistant tuberculosis, bubonic plague, avian influenza and typhus.

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Politico: McCain camp trying to scapegoat Palin

Yes, she's a blithering idiot. But John McCain picked the blithering idiot. So what does this say about him? He can't disown her now. John McCain risked our entire future by making her our future possible president. More from Politico.

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Thursday Morning Open Thread

Good morning.

5 days.

Reaction was very positive to the Obama 30-minute program -- except that political guru, Matt Lauer, who thought it was "over the top." Funny to hear the extremely well paid host of the TODAY Show wonder if Obama is spending too much money. You know, because a Democrat should never be able to raise and spend so much.

The next five days are going to be intense. The McCain campaign will get even more vicious. The political media will be in a frenzy to make this race appear closer (better for ratings.) We cannot get distracted by the noise. Stay focused. Work harder. Give more. And, crush the Republicans.

Let's get it started...

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52% of bailout to banks being paid in dividends to shareholders

This needs to be eliminated immediately. It's unacceptable to let banks pay shareholders dividends while they are being propped up on life support via taxpayer money. The "Treasury" people (hmmm, who could that be?) who are allowing this are trying the old spin, that if banks are unable to hand out dividends they would not participate in the plan to bail them out. Ummm, huh? Let's review, yet again, who is in control here. It's not the banks, it is the US government. Why is there so much fear about having a come to Jesus with the banks?

Critics, including economists and members of Congress, question why banks should get government money if they already have enough money to pay dividends -- or conversely, why banks that need government money are still spending so much on dividends.

"The whole purpose of the program is to increase lending and inject capital into Main Street. If the money is used for dividends, it defeats the purpose of the program," said Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), who has called for the government to require a suspension of dividend payments.

The Treasury plans to invest up to $250 billion in a wide swath of U.S. banks in return for ownership stakes, which the government will relinquish when it is repaid.

Among other restrictions, participating institutions cannot increase dividend payments without government permission. They also are barred from repurchasing stock, which increases the value of outstanding shares.

The 33 banks signed up so far plan to pay shareholders about $7 billion this quarter. Companies generally try to pay consistent dividends and, at the present pace, those dividends will consume 52 percent of the Treasury's investment over the initial three-year term.

Wow. 52% of the bailout for dividends. What was Paulson thinking? Read More......

Cuomo now asking for CEO pay details on nine banks

Between Cuomo and Waxman, Wall Street is in for some long days.

New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is demanding information about executive compensation and bonuses at nine banks that have received federal funds under TARP, the U.S. Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program.

In a letter to each institution's Board of Directors, Cuomo warns the bonuses could violate New York's state fraudulent conveyance law.

"Obviously," he writes, "we will have grave concerns if your expected bonus pool has increased in any way as a result of your receipt or expected receipt of taxpayer funds from TARP."

In the letter, Cuomo demands information on how this year's bonus pools were calculated, as well as details on each bank's 2006 and 2007 bonus payments.

This is an excellent start. NY and Washington also need to keep digging on the company-wide bonus money but bringing the CEO pay in line should help open up that discussion. Read More......

The Wall Street Coffin - for sale now

I hope that he sells enough to make up for his losses and can give a few bucks to a good charity along the way. The Wall Street coffin.

For $35, you can order a wood coffin filled with actual shredded money and a plaque of your choice, including "R.I.P. Lehman Bros., 1885-2008", and "R.I.P. Bear Stearns, 1923-2008." For an extra $5, you can customize the plaque. Maybe "R.I.P. Jane's 401k", or "R.I.P. Jane's GE Stock Options with a $28 Strike Price."

The coffins are made by Jist Enterprises in Westfield, New Jersey. The owner, who describes himself as "a regular working stiff" says on the web site: "As a citizen of the United States, I’m disgusted! I’m disgusted that our financial institutions have failed us so dramatically and that our government has allowed this crisis to evolve...What can I do? I can sell this little Wall Street Coffin and donate 15% of the proceeds to some good charities that help people through difficult times."

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China's "soft landing" and other fantasyland stories

Maybe there is a modern example of a "soft landing" but nothing comes to mind in recent memory. Japan's soft landing didn't work out very well nor did the tech soft landing that was often touted and the same could be said about the real estate bubble which had been at the center of soft landing stories a few years ago. A bubble is a bubble. In the case of China, look at the neighbors who pumped money into China and who are toppling. Does anyone honestly think that a significant slowdown in factory production won't cause painful problems? Of course there's a local market but the economy is heavily geared towards exports and selling to buyers who have enough money (or credit) to buy goods.

China certainly has cash to invest in infrastructure and that's really good news. (At least someone has the spare cash and is focusing on it.) Infrastructure development will be helpful but it is not going to prevent a hard landing after years of speculation, easy money and a troubled customer base who is not buying. Miracles can happen, but more often than not, those touting "soft landings" are proven wrong. Very wrong. Read More......

Medical debt adding to credit crisis and economic problems

For me this is one of the most disgraceful aspects of the Republican control in America. It's shameful to have the richest country in the world offer a health care system that is beyond average. Yes, I know the US has some of the best health care and sure, there's a cost to it. I get all of that. What is pathetic in my opinion is that we have so many uncovered and even for those with insurance, they live in fear of losing everything. I'm familiar with the fear because when my own father was diagnosed with cancer in September of 2001, that was his first comment. He was terrified of the cancer but even more worried about losing his life savings and leaving my mother with nothing.

Go ahead and make fun of France and the rest of Europe or Canada for the socialized health care systems, but you don't have people living with such fears. But in 2008, this is the state that the Republicans have left us in. Make fun of those who give a damn about the country as a whole and ignore the mean spirited attitudes that allow people like McCain to dish out a worthless program that offers nothing other than talk.

I would imagine that everyone who works for a living knows of a story where someone either went into debt or feared going into debt so opted for no health care or a bad choice. In my fathers case, he opted for VA care which was every bit as bad as they say. Are we really this mean spirited and selfish as a country where we will let others fall so far into debt only because of health? I sure hope not.

Since 1999, Keith and Deborah Krinsky of Magalia, Calif., have seen their health insurance deductible soar from $1,000 to $10,000.

And their health-care costs have put them in a financial hole.

A combination of Keith's chronic asthma and potential heart problems, Deborah's connective tissue disorder and fallen arches, and their kids' various scrapes and stumbles led them to amass a pile of credit card debt and forced them to refinance the mortgage on their house -- which they now are having trouble paying.

Keith, once a plant manager for a trucking company in Chico, took a $30,000 pay cut to get a job with better health benefits. Deborah, who doesn't work because of her disability, said they are still fighting desperately to stave off foreclosure.

"Right now, we are in the process of losing our home. We will probably go to my mother-in-law," Deborah said Monday.

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