Clinton wins Arizona, Romney wins Minnesota, Obama wins Colorada

A win out west for Clinton and another one for Obama. And, this GOP race gets messier by the hour. It's great. Read More......

Obama wins Idaho, Romney gets North Dakota and McCain wins his home state of Arizona

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Massachusetts was not an upset

Hillary has always been ahead in Massachusetts. She's been ahead for 14 months. She was 11 points ahead only 2 days ago. For the pundits - especially Chris Matthews - to keep trumpeting Hillary's victory in Massachusetts as an "upset", as though she was expected to lose, is absurd. Yes, she won - and kudos to her for that. But it was expected for the past 14 months. A good week after Ted Kennedy endorsed Obama, Hillary was still up by 11 points. Was there some thought that Obama might upset Hillary and take the state? Yes. But not losing a sure thing does not an upset make. It's just not an upset when you win a state you were expected to win for over a year. Below are the Massachusetts polls for the past year and then some.

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Obama wins Connecticut and Minnesota, Huckabee wins Georgia

CNN and CBS have called Connecticut for Obama. I'd put this in the surprise column. A bigger surprise than Clinton winning Massachusetts. We always expected her to win Massachusetts.

CNN called Minnesota for Obama.

Huckabee is doing much better than expected tonight. Not the coronation of McCain everyone expected tonight. Read More......

Obama wins North Dakota and Utah. Romney wins Utah

Two more wins for Obama out west. Romney gets Utah. Read More......

Obama wins Kansas, McCain wins Oklahoma

Obama is winning the Kansas caucuses by a very wide margin. With 52% reporting, Obama is leading 72% - 28%. It's a closed caucus - only Democrats can participate. And, this is McCain's first win in a red state tonight. Read More......

Clinton wins New Jersey, McCain wins New York, Obama wins Alabama

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Demographic breakdown of Dem voters tonight

Men
53% Obama
42% Hillary

Women - Seems that Obama is doing better among women than previously - but, women are turning out disproportionately more than men, so with Hillary leading with women this helps a lot
Hillary 51%
Obama 45%

African-Americans
80% Obama
17% Hillary

Whites
51% Hillary
44% Obama (higher than he did in FL or SC, where he got about 1/4 of the white vote) Read More......

Hillary wins New York, Obama wins Delaware

Clinton was projected to win her home state of New York. Delaware was called for Delaware.

Missouri, Connecticut and New Jersey are too close to call. Read More......

Hillary wins Massachusetts

While some are calling this a huge upset for Hillary, since Kennedy endorsed Obama, in fact Hillary has been ahead in Massachusetts by a good margin so her victory tonight was expected. Read More......

Alabama for Huckabee

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Delegate estimates from this evening

Chuck Todd on MSNBC:

Arkansas
Clinton 23
Obama 12

Georgia
Obama 60
Clinton 27

Illinois
Obama 100+
Clinton 50+

Massachusetts
Candidate who wins popular vote could lose the delegate split (93 delegates total)

Tennessee
Clinton 38
Obama 30

Oklahoma
Clinton 23
Obama 15 Read More......

McCain wins Delaware

Joe says this isn't news. Read More......

Hillary and Huckabee win Arkansas

This was expected. Read More......

Clinton wins Tennessee

As expected, Clinton wins Tennessee. Read More......

8 PM GOP Predictions. McCain wins IL, CT & NJ. Mitt gets Mass.

McCain has been predicted the victor in Illinois, Connecticut and New Jersey. Romney won his home state of Massachusetts.

The GOP race is getting interesting tonight. Huckabee seems to be doing better than we might have expected. Romney is holding his own against McCain in Arizona in the exit polls.

It's too close to call in Missouri (I heard there was a very heavy turnout of Mormons in Jackson County - Independence), Oklahoma and Tennessee. It's too early to call Alabama. Read More......

Obama wins Illinois. Clinton wins Oklahoma.

MSNBC just predicted Obama will win his home state of Illinois. Clinton has been declared the victor in Oklahoma.

No surprises here.

Other states that closed at 8 PM include: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey and Tennessee. Read More......

What to look for at 8pm

Russert says at 8pm Eastern keep an eye on the results from NJ, CT and MA. Hillary had a large lead weeks ago. How she does tonight could be a bellwether for how she does elsewhere this evening. Read More......

Obama projected winner in Georgia

Obama got 43% of the white vote in Georgia. Georgia. All the commentators are saying that that would bode well for Obama getting more than just the black vote and youth in a general election.

This was expected. Read More......

Dem exit polls are out

Though, again, it's not clear what these mean. As always, pay close attention to CA, NJ and MO, among others. Read More......

What times the polls close tonight, by state

From RealClearPolitcs, all times are Eastern:

7:00 p.m.
Georgia

8:00 p.m.
Alabama
Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Missouri
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Tennessee

8:30 p.m.
Arkansas

9:00 p.m.
Arizona
New York

10:00 p.m.
Utah

11:00 p.m.
California

Caucus starting times:

New Mexico (D) -- open 2 p.m. to 9 p.m.
North Dakota -- open 3 p.m. to 9 p.m. (D), 7:30 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. (R)
Minnesota -- 7:30 p.m. (D), 8:00 p.m. (R)
Kansas (D) -- 8:00 p.m.
Colorado -- 9:00 p.m.
Idaho (D) -- 9:00 p.m.
Montana (R) -- 10:00 p.m.
Alaska -- 10:00 p.m. (D), 8:30 p.m. to 12:30 a.m. (R)

*West Virginia Republicans hold a convention today, beginning at 9 a.m.

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A ton of GOP exit polls have leaked

My friend Jim has them, but, as he notes, they don't necessarily tell us much because we don't know what districts they're from, and we don't know about absentee ballots. Still, we can't resist them.

Oh, and Joe has lost his mind. It's the political equivalent of Christmas for him tonight. I'd say he was giddy, but, well, yes, he's giddy. We'll be posting like maniacs all night. I'm heading to an election party where I'll be blogging in the "quiet room" with all the geeks, well it's actually a party made up entirely of political geeks, and Joe will be blogging from home because he may have a nervous breakdown if anyone talks while his beloved returns come in. So check back frequently tonight, we'll be posting lots of updates. Read More......

Early exits: Mass. is "dead heat" for Dems.; Romney up big

The National Review's Jim Geraghty (who often debates John Aravosis on CNN) has a way of getting the exit polls. He just posted the early exits from Massachusetts:

My first word of exit poll results says that the first two waves of results in Massachusetts show a "dead heat" between Hillary and Obama, and a 20-point margin for Romney among Republicans.

So, these are the first exit polls of the night. Mark Blumenthal had some wise cautions about exit polls over at Pollster.com. That being said, recent polls in Massachusetts (with one exception) have shown Clinton with a sizable lead in the state - although Obama was moving up. So if they're really neck-and-neck, that's interesting. Here is a link to the compilation of Democratic polls showing an average 10 point lead for Clinton.

On the GOP side, whatever. Mitt was the Governor, after all. Read More......

Religious right leader James Dobson: I will not vote for McCain

As Republican friends in-the-know often remind me, Dobson is THE religious right leader - not "a" leader, THE leader.

As voters in 24 states head to the polls today to choose a presidential nominee, Dr. James Dobson released a statement to The Laura Ingraham Show today. He stated his personal opinions of this critical election:

"I am deeply disappointed the Republican Party seems poised to select a nominee who did not support a Constitutional amendment to protect the institution of marriage, voted for embryonic stem-cell research to kill nascent human beings, opposed tax cuts that ended the marriage penalty, has little regard for freedom of speech, organized the Gang of 14 to preserve filibusters in judicial hearings, and has a legendary temper and often uses foul and obscene language.

"I am convinced Sen. McCain is not a conservative, and in fact, has gone out of his way to stick his thumb in the eyes of those who are. He has sounded at times more like a member of the other party. McCain actually considered leaving the GOP caucus in 2001, and approached John Kerry about being Kerry's running mate in 2004. McCain also said publicly that Hillary Clinton would make a good president. Given these and many other concerns, a spoonful of sugar does NOT make the medicine go down. I cannot, and will not, vote for Sen. John McCain, as a matter of conscience.

"But what a sad and melancholy decision this is for me and many other conservatives. Should Sen. McCain capture the nomination as many assume, I believe this general election will offer the worst choices for president in my lifetime. I certainly can't vote for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama based on their virulently anti-family policy positions. If these are the nominees in November, I simply will not cast a ballot for president for the first time in my life. These decisions are my personal views and do not represent the organization with which I am affiliated. They do reflect my deeply held convictions about the institution of the family, about moral and spiritual beliefs, and about the welfare of our country."

Around noon today, Dr. Dobson talked to national talk-show host Dennis Prager. He made it clear he was not endorsing anyone.

"Dr. Dobson's statement speaks for itself," said Gary Schneeberger, vice president of media relations for Focus on the Family Action. "He made it as a private citizen, and it reflects his personal opinion of Sen. McCain's candidacy and record. People can read into it what they like; all I see is his own personal 'straight talk' regarding why he can't vote for one candidate."

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While you've been voting, the stock market dropped 370 points over recession concerns

The Dow is down 370 points -- a three percent drop:

Stocks plummeted on Wall Street on Tuesday after a business survey provided another strong signal that the United States may be in the early stages of a recession.

And, as Mitt Romney keeps telling us, the GOP front-runner, John McCain, doesn't know much about the economy. Read More......

Clinton agrees to debate on Fox News next week

Clinton's campaign announced today that she has agreed to a debate on Fox News next week, February 11th. We thought this was resolved last March and Democrats weren't going to debate on Fox. Jane Hamsher has the background on Clinton's decision and makes this key point:

Fox is not a news outlet, it's an openly partisan opinion factory and the Democrats should not be legitimizing them (and allowing them to recruit Democratic viewers to propagandize to) by doing this.

Paul Begala also wrote a scathing rebuke of FOX last March, which John posted. So, again, why would any Democrat agree to a debate on Fox? Read More......

Huckabee wins in West Virginia with some help from McCain

Huckabee won the complicated West Virginia caucuses according to NBC. After the first ballot, Mitt was in the lead but hadn't reached 50%. Marc Ambinder reports there was some WV wheeling and dealing between the Huckster and McCain campaigns to prevent a Mitt win. Looks like it worked.
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Is Ron Paul toast?

I'd kind of like the guy, and his millions of dollar, to stick around. Read More......

Pollsters' track records

Click to see the larger image.

(From SurveyUSA, h/t reader PM.) Read More......

What to look for this evening

Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post does a nice walkthrough of what to look for as the returns start coming in this evening:

7 p.m.: Polls in Georgia close. The Peach State could be a good prognosticator of what the rest of the country holds for the Democratic contest between Sens. Barack Obama (Ill.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.). Georgia is a likely win for Obama given its 30 percent black population -- but watch for how soon the race gets called. Do the networks call it the moment the polls close? If so, that's good news for Obama. The longer the networks wait to call Georgia, the better for Clinton.

8 p.m.: The big enchilada in terms of poll closing times with nine primary states and a caucus (Kansas Democrats). For Republicans, keep an eye on Massachusetts. It's former governor Mitt Romney's (Mass.) adopted home state but Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) sees a chance to pull an upset. Because of McCain's likely dominance in terms of states and delegates today, Romney needs to find a way to score a symbolic victory or two to justify remaining in the race. Losing Massachusetts would be a very tough pill to swallow for the former Bay State governor.

On the Democratic side, both Clinton and Obama have a few likely wins during this hour. For Obama, Illinois and Alabama will almost certainly go his way. For Clinton, Connecticut and Oklahoma should be wins. That leaves a handful of jump-ball states including New Jersey and Missouri. Again, if part of tonight is about scoring symbolic victories, an Obama win in New Jersey -- ostensibly Clinton's backyard -- could send a powerful message about where election night is headed. Missouri is central -- both in terms of geography and the candidates' winning formula. Missouri is literally and figuratively the gateway to the southwest and west today and winning it would give either candidate a nice boost heading into the second half of the night.

9pm and beyond, after the jump...

9 p.m.: Clinton should get a nice boost between 8:30 p.m. (when Arkansas' polls close) and 9 p.m. when the polling places in New York shut their doors. Both states look like relatively pedestrian victories for Clinton and should be called almost as soon as the polls close. Anything short of that scenario could spell trouble for Clinton.

Many of the caucuses -- Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota -- will be announcing their results around this time as well. Those should all be Obama wins and should allow him to push back against the Clinton victories in New York and Arkansas.

Our guess is that attention quickly will turn to Arizona which both campaigns believe they can win. Obama has Gov. Janet Napolitano and her political machine on his side but the state has a large Hispanic population -- a group that favored Clinton so far. This is a HUGE contest in terms of swinging momentum.

This hour, too, has much good news for McCain as he should easily win in his home state of Arizona as well as New York. If McCain does so, the question will be how the coverage plays out over the next two hours. McCain will likely have a number of the early states won by this point with no other large states closing between now and 11 p.m. That lull will allow more analysis to be done on the GOP side -- analysis that could well send a message to voters in western states (particularly California) that the race is over and McCain has won. Obviously that sort of coverage would be a major boon for McCain and a bust for Romney.

10 p.m.: Utah closes. The Beehive State is as close to a sure thing as there is for Romney. But will it be enough to counter the potential storyline of a McCain sweep in the east and Midwest? Utah is a small state and heavily Mormon so Romney might not get the credit for winning it that he would have otherwise.

11 p.m.: California, the state we've all been waiting for all night, finally closes its polling places. California once looked like a lock for Clinton and McCain but no longer.

On the Democratic side, Obama has made up ground rapidly and enters Election Day with a 50-50 chance of carrying the state. There are really two fights at work in the Golden State. The first is the practical fight for delegates, a battle that seems almost certain to end in something close to a draw due to the proportional manner of winning delegates by congressional district and the differing areas of strength for Clinton and Obama. The second, and perhaps more important fight, is one of perception. California is by far the biggest Super Tuesday state. Combine that with the fact it is the only state with polls that close at 11 p.m. and it's easy to conclude that the eyes of the political world -- and the average voter as well -- will be directly on it from 11 p.m. on. A victory here will leave a strong impression before we all go to bed and get ready to sift through the Super Tuesday detritus on Hangover Wednesday.

California is similarly important on the Republican side. Against all odds, Romney is surprisingly competitive with McCain in the state and winning here would make up for a lot of losses by the former Massachusetts governor earlier in the night. As we wrote above, Romney needs to find a way to claim a symbolic victory or two tonight to justify continuing on, and California provides his best chance at doing just that. Even if Romney loses three quarters of the other 21 states on the Republican map tonight, a win in California allows him to make the case that the contest continues on because the largest state in the union decided he is still in the ring.

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McCain worried he may lose popular vote in California

TIME:

McCain's people fear he may lose the popular vote in California to Romney -- even if they haul in the same number of CA delegates -- and that the Super Tuesday story will therefore NOT be the crowning of McCain but rather his failure to put away the game, a failure born of his fractious and sometimes unloving relationship with conservatives, especially those millions of conservatives who listen to and abide by Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, not to mention Limbaugh and Hannity themselves, and a failure that in turn will be viewed as both a symptom and a cause of the historic crack-up of the conservative coalition that has sustained and nourished the Republican Party for a couple generations.

Ok, take a breath now. Read More......

Widely divergent final polls of the Democratic primary in California

Just to give a sense of how little we know about what will happen in California, take a look at two of the most up-to-date polls.

Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby gives Obama a 13 point lead:

In California, which alone provides more than one-fifth of the Democratic delegates needed for the nomination, Obama led Clinton by 49 percent to 36 percent, the poll found. The margin of error was 3.3 percentage points.

Survey USA has Clinton leading by 10 points:

24 hours till votes are counted in the California Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton appears to fend-off a late charge from Barack Obama, 52% Clinton, 42% Obama, according to SurveyUSA's 13th and final pre-primary tracking poll. Obama leads among men. Clinton leads among women. 44-point Gender Gap. Clinton leads among whites. Obama leads among blacks. 53-point Race Gap. Among younger voters, Clinton leads by 3. Among older voters, Clinton leads by 18. In greater San Francisco, the contest is tied. In the Central Valley, Clinton leads by 7. In greater Los Angeles, Clinton leads by 15. In the Inland Empire, Clinton leads by 16.

Survey USA's poll has a margin of error of +/-3.4%

The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. Read More......

Super Tuesday Morning Open Thread

Good morning.

Super Tuesday is here. McCain, Clinton and Obama were all on the Today Show this morning. Nothing dramatic, although McCain got asked about his temper. That is going to be a big problem for him. His temper is legendary. He's like the cranky, nasty old man in your neighborhood who always screamed at the kids -- often for no reason. At first, your parents didn't believe it because they never saw him having a screaming fit. But, then, they did, because the old man just couldn't help himself. McCain can't help himself -- and everyone is watching.

If you live in a Super Tuesday state, tell us what you're seeing and hearing. Send us your Super Tuesday tips: americablog at starpower dot net

And, it's Fat Tuesday, too.

So, let's get it started. Read More......

Lapdogs of the Corporate Press

Where would we be without them? Read More......

Obama wins 75% of initial vote for Super Tuesday

The results are from American expats living in Indonesia. Don't forget to get out and vote today if you are a Democrat living outside of the US. Check out the Democrats Abroad site to get more details and make sure you have the proper documents. Here in Paris, there has been a lot confusion due to too many emails from the Democrats Abroad in Paris, none of which really explained what was happening, how it worked or what it meant. That's pretty much business as usual for the group but if you can make it to one of the polling stations, check out the list and vote.

Be sure to ask about when our expat votes are going to be counted in a general election while you're there. The organization seems to be moving in the right direction, but could certainly use some help in Washington. There are roughly six million Americans living abroad, so that ought to count for something. Read More......

Baby products include potentially dangerous chemical

Naturally, the FDA says everything is just fine but we all know the Bush FDA is about as (pro-industry) one-sided as they come. The only time the Bush FDA ever contradicts business is when they've been forced due to death and/or successful class action lawsuits. Meanwhile, back in the real world, there is a brewing controversy over phthalates in baby products.

The study’s lead author, Dr. Sheela Sathyanarayana, a University of Washington pediatrician, said, “The bottom line is that these chemicals likely do exist in products that we’re commonly using on our children and they potentially could cause health effects.”

Babies don’t usually need special lotions and powders, and water alone or shampoo in very small amounts is generally enough to clean infant hair, Sathyanarayana said.

Concerned parents can seek products labeled “phthalate-free,” or check labels for common phthalates, including DEP and DEHP.

But the chemicals often don’t appear on product labels. That’s because retail products aren’t required to list individual ingredients of fragrances, which are a common phthalate source.

Read More......