Open thread

It's kind of fun not knowing what's going to happen tomorrow in Iowa. Joe and I will be live-blogging all night, and our friend Marc Laitin will be reporting in live from the frozen ground. Read More......

Romney using proxies to convince voters he really IS anti-gay, really

Sorry, Charlie, that pink boat sailed years ago. I've mentioned before that Ted Kennedy's campaign recruited me back in 1994 to help them fight Romney's attempt to convince voters in Massachusetts that he was really more pro-gay, and would do more for gays, than Ted Frigging Kennedy. They asked me to write a letter to the editor of the gay paper in Boston (and I did) explaining that Romney wasn't really as good an honorary homosexual as Kennedy. That's how bad things were, that's how successful Romney was in pleading his case that he was the best thing to hit the gay agenda since Judy Garland and disco.

Ted Kennedy, folks. That was Romney's mentor - nay - the guy Romney claimed didn't hold a candle to him on his support for gay rights. It's no wonder Romney is pulling out all the stops to convince Republican primary voters that he's not REALLY pro-gay. If Romney were any more pro-gay, his wife would be his husband. Read More......

McCain refuses to say if he's healthy enough to handle 8 years as president

Just watched something rather creepy on ABC News.

ABC CORRESPONDENT: McCain is 71. Today he was asked if he has the health and endurance to serve two terms as president.

JOHN MCCAIN: You shouldn't run for 8 years. I'm running for a four year term.

Actually, the appropriate answer is "hell yeah, I can handle 20 years as president." I'm wondering if the increasingly fragile-looking McCain can handle even four. Read More......

Criminal probe opened over destroyed CIA torture tapes

Yes, Virginia, there is a Justice Department.

The Justice Department opened a full criminal investigation Wednesday into the destruction of CIA interrogation videotapes, putting the politically charged probe in the hands of a mob-busting public corruption prosecutor with a reputation for being independent.

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Romney: Bush has "strengthened our economy by getting us off of foreign oil"

Yeah, now that we occupy Iraq, it's considered domestic oil. (Not my quote, got it from a commenter at Reddit, but it's brilliant.)


(Romney with creepy Denny Hastert in Iowa.)

Romney is known for flip-flopping, just usually not in the same sentence. AMERICAblog's correspondent in Iowa, Marc Laitin, just attended a Romney event and, well, things got a bit surreal. Marc reports:

We're on the road to Des Moines after witnessing three different events and yes, still hardly any yard signs (even in front of the single family homes we've driven by).

We started with Clinton, then checked out Romney and finished off with Obama. The contrast between the Romney event in a private jet hanger, attended by approximately the same number of journalists as supporters (50-75 people total), and Obama's in a veterans' memorial building with 1000+ people was not surprisingly, quite dramatic.

I'll have pictures and a few anecdotes from Obama and Clinton later, but I wanted to bring attention to a rather strange comment that Romney made during his stump speech. He began a thread about all the great things that George Bush has accomplished, including lowering taxes (no surprise there) and then added that Bush has "strengthened our economy by getting us off of foreign oil." Huh?

Oh but it gets better. More after the jump...

Romney went on to talk about the fact that oil just hit $100 a barrel today and then something about how we buy a bunch of oil from overseas and that we need to become energy independent. It was all said in a very earnest and serious tone, so it all felt very true, but it can't be, can it? I mean, Mitt just told us that George Bush freed us from our dependence on foreign oil, so who cares if it hits $100 a barrel, right?

So what is it Mitt, did George Bush free us from our dependence on foreign oil, or not? As Stoller noted, most of the top Time Magazine reporters were in attendance. I wonder if they'll report this gaffe.

And oh, I did actually see some yard signs, they just were piled up at the Romney event. I didn't see anyone walk out with one.

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Bhutto coverage emblematic of foreign policy coverage issues

Basically just a degree away from my explanation of why Bhutto has attracted such a media crush -- shorter version: she was Westernized, female, and attractive -- is this darkly funny parody piece by Tim Noah. Since apparently every pundit east of the Mississippi knew her from Harvard, Oxford, or a cocktail party, we've been subjected to a never-ending barrage of Bhutto nostalgia pieces, and this is (farcically) an addition to the genre.

In all seriousness, though, it really does point to a serious problem in foreign policy coverage and thinking. From the American perspective, generally speaking, analysis of foreign leaders too often goes something like this: Speaks English? Sophisticated. Speaks language of country of origin? Backwater. Went to an Ivy League school? Moderate. Educated anywhere in the Eastern Hemisphere? Extremist. Appreciates single malt? A partner for peace. Eschews the party circuit? Untrustworthy.

And through these heuristics, you get things like people predicting electoral victories of, for example, Iraq's Allawi and Chalabi the day before Sadr and Hakim sweep the polls. It's very frustrating. Read More......

Nonfat milk linked to prostate cancer malignancy

Good God, is there nothing we can eat any more? So use whole milk and have a heart attack or low-fat milk and help your prostate cancer go malignant. Ugh. You know, I go to France every year, I eat food that is rich in fat, cream, butter, oil and all the rest, and I lose weight every time (and I actually don't drink that much, even there). I'm really beginning to wonder if the processing of food we do here in the states is slowly poisoning us. Read More......

Independent Iowa voters tending towards Obama

This is about more than just Iowa, I think. Obama is the only Democratic candidate who I've found any enthusiam for among Independents and Republicans. They like him. More than they like Hillary or Edwards (at least per my very unscientific personal poll). The Washington Post has a story today noting that:

Overall, 40 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers identified themselves as independents, the poll said, double the percentage from 2004, and 60 percent said they would be attending a caucus for the first time. Both groups preferred Obama.

It doesn't mean Obama is my first choice, we're not divulging first choices, but it does suggest that he appeals beyond Democrats, and that's useful in a country where elections of late have been disturbingly divided 50-50, and we've lost far too many squeakers. Read More......

Edwards continues to impress on foreign policy

Michael Gordon, the NYT reporter who wrote the fantastic "Cobra II", interviewed Edwards this weekend about Iraq and foreign policy more generally, and I just read the transcript. Gordon isn't trying to play "gotcha", and the questions -- and perhaps most importantly, the follow-up conversations -- are extremely good and highly instructive.

It's lengthy, and there's really no point in trying to summarize it. If you're interested in that stuff, it's very much worth checking out. Without getting into the details, I'll just say that anybody who thinks Edwards is a foreign policy lightweight is dead wrong. Read More......

Our correspondent on the ground in Iowa (seriously, we have one) checks in

AMERICAblog has a correspondent on the ground in Iowa for the caucuses. Rather than just repeat the old "who's ahead" drivel that we can give you from our own armchairs in DC, our guy on the ground, Marc Laitin, is going to be beaming in his impressions of the overall event. Here is Marc's first report.

Where are all the signs?

Hey all, I just got into Iowa via Davenport an hour ago. I'm going to write a bit more about what I'm going to try and see and do here over the next 48 hours later today, but I wanted to pass along a quick first impression.

Where are all the yard signs?

More from Marc in Iowa after the jump...

I've spent a lot of time in cities and states with important elections, and other than Ohio/Florida 2004 I can't think of a place I've been where there has been more at stake than Iowa right now, but for some reason the standard overwhelming yard sign battle appears not to have sprouted up here (at least not in Davenport). I suspect it will be different in Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, but maybe not.

Anyone know what is up with that? Is the fact that only 100-125k Iowans are likely to caucus tomorrow mean that campaigns need to do less mass brand marketing and more direct outreach, or is there something else going on here?

Marc Laitin is a founder and Principal of Wired for Change, a political technology and strategy consulting firm based in Washington, DC. In 2004 Marc co-founded and directed the Run Against Bush campaign, which organized over 15,000 people in all 50 states to literally run against Bush. Read More......

Oil hits $100 per barrel

Who needs a serious energy plan anyway? Let's just let GM, Halliburton and Exxon decide our national policy because it seems to be going so well. Read More......

FOX bans Ron Paul from NH debate. Is GOP network trying to help Republicans?

This is why many of us have been saying that FOX News shouldn't be hosting any debates at all. They're not a news network, they're a Republican propaganda organ. The impartiality of the NH debate will now be suspect because of FOX's history of pandering to the Republicans, and more specifically, to the Republicans in power. The more we hear from Ron Paul, the more it hurts the GOP's chances in the fall (since Paul could very well have a Nader-effect, stealing just enough votes from the GOP candidate to put a Dem in office). And FOX won't do anything that jeopardizes a GOP win in the fall. So FOX bans Ron Paul in order to help the Republicans in the election.

After the jump, the LA Times provides you with the email addresses of the head of the NH Republican party and of Rupert Murdoch so you can weigh in on FOX's attempt to steal the election for their preferred candidate.

From the LA Times blog (which, funny enough, intentionally provided us with the emails of the interested parties so we could contact them):

Over the weekend a Fox News spokeswoman told Top of the Ticket that the New Hampshire Republican Party was making the choice of candidates to participate in the televised GOP presidential debate on Jan. 6 with Chris Wallace moderating. She even provided the chairman's e-mail: fergus@nhgop.org to confirm that. Alas, the chairman never responded to us.

Then, on Monday, that state party chair, Fergus Cullen, issued a statement saying that limiting candidates was not in the party's tradition, suggesting the media should not be in the ....

business of excluding serious candidates and talks were continuing with Fox.

So whose decision is it?

Understandably, neither side apparently wants to incur the online wrath of Paul's passionate parishioners, who scour the Internet around the clock and descend like locusts on any opportunity to praise Paul or right perceived wrongs on any website or blog they can find. If word got out that Fox/News Corp. chairman Rupert Murdoch's e-mail was rmurdoch@newscorp.com, his mailbox would be full in a flash.

At FOX News, you don't vote, they decide. Read More......

Ron Paul may have raised more than his GOP opponents last quarter, and as much as Hillary

From Bloomberg:

Presidential candidate Ron Paul raised almost $20 million for his campaign in the last three months, potentially outpacing every one of his Republican rivals and putting his fundraising in league with Hillary Clinton's.

Paul, a U.S. representative from Texas, raised at least $19.5 million, according to a statement posted on his Web site. His campaign said today that he originally aimed to raise $12 million in the fourth quarter of 2007.

The take puts Paul on par with the top fundraisers in the Democratic Party, who outpaced Republicans last year. The campaign of New York Senator Clinton yesterday said she raised more than $100 million for the year, meaning she brought in at least $20 million in the fourth quarter.

More after the jump...The guy fascinates me. Well, his supporters fascinate me. What exactly is going on here? Is it Republicans fed up with how kooky and message-less their party has become? Is it Independents and Democratics dissatisfied with the current candidates on the left? Is it new voters? Who the heck is giving this guy his money? Paul is at only 9% in Iowa. And he hasn't broken double-digits in NH either. So who is giving him all this money, and does it translate, or why isn't it translating, into popular support? And in any case, does it matter? As Joe has noted before, with $20 million Ron Paul can run a lot of ads attacking other Republicans. And just the other day he said he wouldn't rule out a third-party run. I have to think that Paul is a greater threat to Republican candidates than Democratic candidates. Then again, his no-bones-about-it anti-war message could resonate with some on the left who are disaffected with the Dems.

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Mitt Romney releases final ad before Iowa caucuses

Hat tip to reader Gary SF. Read More......

Politico on "The anemic state of Republicans"

Even Ken Mehlman had to admit the GOP is in trouble. As enthusiastic as Democrats are for our candidates, the GOPers are in retreat. It won't get better after they pick a nominee. A lot of Republicans hate every one of their presidential candidates for one reason or another:

Iowans are voting with their feet. While both parties have wide-open nomination contests, crowds for the Democratic candidates in recent days are unmistakably larger and more enthusiastic than those turning out for the GOP contenders.

Around the country, people are voting with their wallets. Early reports on the close of 2007 fundraising put a yearlong financial disparity between the parties on glaring display.

Democrats Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, aides said, both raised more than $100 million in 2007, sums that GOP sources say are at least $40 million greater than those of GOP financial leaders Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani.

The anemic state of Republicans will likely become more glaring still on caucus voting Thursday evening.

Anemic. Thinks about this one fact: The Republican who raised the most money in the last quarter of 2007 -- and money was always one of the GOP's strongest suits -- was Ron Paul.

Have to admit, it's fun to read this in The Politico. There's more of this after the break:
It's one thing for Democrats to despised the GOP candidates (and we do). But the most intense loathing of the GOP candidates is coming from other GOPers:

It also highlights a problem that Democrats do not have — significant ideological fissures that may make it hard to reunite the party once a nominee is chosen. Iowa’s top Republican contenders — former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Romney, a former Massachusetts governor — reflect different strands of conservatism.

Many anti-tax economic conservatives loathe Huckabee, who has surged here on the strength of evangelicals who like his social conservatism.

Negative ads, many of them bought by Romney, have flooded the Republican side. Democrats, while taking veiled or not-so-veiled shots at each other in public comments, have not taken aim at each other in paid advertising.

Read More......

Wednesday Morning Open Thread

Good morning.

The holidays are over. Back to work, back to school. The political season, however, is now in full swing -- and it's going to be a long, long season. The next month will be wild. The next ten months will be intense. Ugly and intense.

What are you hearing? Read More......

Big Oil loved 2007

It must be nice to have a 57% increase in one year. But don't worry, because Big Oil says their profit margins declined. Sure, anything they say. They can rest comfortably knowing that movement towards efficiency will still take decades thanks to the special interest lobbies in Washington.

Besides auto emissions, we to start looking into the efficiency of appliances. US washing machines, dryers and dishwashers are energy (and water) hogs compared to what is on offer in Europe. American dryers consistently destroy my clothes on every visit and seem to need their own power station to generate furnace-like temperatures. With energy costs increasing for Americans (they're already high here) this area also needs some attention. 2008 probably won't offer much change though I think many are seeking these changes with the new president. In simple dollars and cents, it's just too costly to avoid change. Read More......

UK facing serious credit issue in 2008

The UK in many ways is more like the US than Europe, with credit being one major similarity. In France, house/flat loans generally require 30%-40% cash upfront and then terms of 10-12 years, with 15 or more years much less common. Credit cards to anyone breathing just doesn't exist. Compare that to the UK which has been high flying for years with an easy credit model closer to what we have in the US. The UK economy has been booming compared to Euroland though so has spending on credit. 2008 may be the year that changes.
More on the credit issues facing the UK after the jump.

The latest figures indicate that 23 per cent of people – 9.5 million adults – were finding their current level of debt "unmanageable". Although the Bank of England cut the base rate of interest last month, an estimated 1.4 million people will still have to pay more for their home loans when their fixed-rate deals come to an end this year, costing an extra £150 to £250 a month.

Tomorrow, Grant Thornton will forecast that 10,000 individuals will hit the financial wall each month in 2008, with 28,000 individuals sliding into insolvency in the first quarter. As many as one third of bankruptcies in the first three months of the year will be caused by "excessive Christmas spending".

Mike Gerrard, the head of Grant Thornton's personal insolvency practice, said: "Sadly, many individuals spend up on credit at Christmas and pay no heed to the financial warning bells. Come January, they find themselves in a situation where previous financial woes are compounded by the bills arriving from the festive season and in these situations insolvency becomes the only way out."

Mike Naylor, a personal finance expert at uSwitch.com, remarked: "People have enjoyed easy access to cheap credit for quite some time, but for some, the party really could be over." He said those with a poor credit record would experience a particularly tough time.

In a survey last month, the Bank of England found that more than one fifth of those whose mortgage deals had come to an end last year struggled to meet higher payments.

Experts predict a rise in Individual Voluntary Agreements (IVAs), a less stringent form of bankruptcy, because banks are once again accepting them after quibbling with their terms last year. Bankruptcies are also expected to be more readily accepted by individuals because they have become so commonplace and so their stigma has fallen.

Read More......