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August 29, 2010
"I don't have to say I'm going to caucus with the Democrats or the Republicans."
-- Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (I), in an interview on CNN's
State of the Union, dodging the question of which of the two major political parties he would caucus with if elected to the U.S. Senate.
"I'm making decisions that are not necessarily good for the nightly news and not good for the next election, but for the next generations."
-- President Obama, in an interview on
NBC News.
A new
Albuquerque Journal poll in New Mexico finds Susana Martinez (R) has taken an early lead over Diane Denish (D) in the race for governor, 45% to 39% with 16% undecided.
Denish also is suffering from a successful Martinez strategy to tie her to Gov. Bill Richardson (D), with whom Denish has served since 2003, and now holds a dismal 33% approval rating. Among those who disapprove of Richardson's performance, 62% said they would vote for Martinez compared to 22% who said they would vote for Denish.
Despite what many have dubbed the "year of the woman," the
Los Angeles Times reports that this year's midterms could actually see the number of women serving in Congress drop for the first time since 1978.
"If large numbers of Democratic incumbents lose in November, as expected, many women could be replaced by men. Female candidates tend to do better in Democratic years, and 2010 is shaping up as a successful year for Republicans."
What about the
Mama Grizzlies? "While political attention has focused this year on Sarah Palin's handpicked candidates and on a record number of Republican women running for House seats, primary losses have thinned their ranks to several dozen. In fact, just four women are among the GOP's 46 'Young Guns,' as the party calls its frontline challengers who are considered future leaders."
The
New York Times has a compelling look at President Obama's steep learning curve on national security as "the first president in four decades with a shooting war already raging the day he took office," and his attempts to juggle two wars and a full domestic agenda.
"Along the way, he has confronted some of the biggest choices a president can make, often deferring to military advisers yet trying to shape the decisions with his own judgments -- too much at times for the Pentagon, too little in the view of his liberal base... A year and a half into his presidency, Mr. Obama appears to be a reluctant warrior. Even as he draws down troops in Iraq, he has been abundantly willing to use force to advance national interests, tripling forces in Afghanistan, authorizing secret operations in Yemen and Somalia, and escalating drone strikes in Pakistan."
Newsweek notes that nothing is apparently more important to Republican politicians these days than jobs and the budget deficit, but there's a problem with their message: "So far, the things that Republicans have said they want to do won't actually boost employment or reduce deficits. In fact, much the opposite. By combing through a variety of studies and projections from nonpartisan economic sources, we here at Gaggle headquarters have found that if Republicans were in charge from January 2009 onward -- and if they were now given carte blanche to enact the proposals they want to -- the projected 2010-2020 deficits would be larger than they are under Obama, and fewer people would probably be employed."
A new
Public Policy Polling survey shows Joe Miller's (R) possible victory in the Alaska U.S. Senate primary has given Democrats "at least a marginal opportunity for a pick up this fall, although that will fade if Lisa Murkowski stays in the race for the general as the Libertarian candidate."
Miller leads Scott McAdams (D), 47% to 39%.
In a three-way race Miller holds a small lead over Murkowsi, 38% to 34%, with McAdams way back at 22%.
On the fifth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, a new entry in the
political dictionary: "heck of a job."
A new
Washington Post poll finds Washington, D.C. Mayor Adrian Fenty (D) is trailing badly in his reelection bid against D.C. Council Chairman Vincent Gray (D), "despite a widespread sense that the city is heading in the right direction."
Gray leads Fenty among likely voters by 17 points, 53% to 36%.
Key finding: "Although most of those Democrats polled credit the mayor with a record of accomplishment and say he brought needed change to the District, many doubt his honesty, his willingness to listen to different points of view and his ability to understand their problems. The criticisms are especially deep-seated among African Americans, who are likely to make up a majority of primary voters."
West Virginia's Gov. Joe Manchin (D) won the state's special Democratic primary election for the late Sen. Robert Byrd's seat. Manchin will face off against businessman John Raese (R).
In Louisiana, Sen. David Vitter easily won the state's GOP primary and will face Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) in the midterm election.
The
Palm Beach Post has an interesting finding from Florida's U.S. Senate primary: "Palm Beach billionaire Jeff Greene lost his precinct 2-to-1 to Kendrick Meek in the Democratic Senate primary. That's not a ratio of 2-to-1. It was literally 2 votes for Meek and one for Greene, presumably his own. Greene's wife isn't registered in Palm Beach County."
"Only 26 Democrats are registered in Greene's precinct, compared to 84 Republicans. Marco Rubio carried the precinct 26-0 in the GOP Senate primary."
August 28, 2010
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) insists that any similarity between the book covers of Sarah Palin's book and his forthcoming one wasn't intended -- though they look very similar, the
Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.
Check them out for yourself: Here's Palin's
Going Rogue and Pawlenty's
Courage to Stand.
Said Pawlenty: "I don't know if it looks like it or not but we certainly didn't intend it that way."
Only about 20% to 25% of West Virginians are projected to cast ballots in today's primary race for U.S. Senate, the
Charleston Gazette reports.
Though there are 14 candidates running, Gov. Joe Manchin (D) and businessman John Raese (R) are expected to secure their party's nominations.
Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Voters head to the polls today in Louisiana to vote in federal primary races.
While Sen. David Vitter (R) and Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) face primary opposition for their party's U.S. Senate nomination, polls suggest both will win handily.
According to the
Baton Rouge Advocate, the state "is using a closed primary system for federal elections. Republican voters can only vote for Republican candidates. Democratic voters can only vote for Democrats. Libertarians can only vote for Libertarians. Unaffiliated party voters can participate in either Democratic or Libertarian party primaries. The Republican Party opted not to have unaffiliated voters involved in its balloting."
Polls close at 9 p.m. ET.
A new
Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada shows Brian Sandoval (R) well ahead of Rory Reid (D) in the race for governor among likely voters, 53% to 31%.
"The 22 point margin is five points wider than results of a similar poll two weeks ago -- although a compilation of all public polls taken in the race shows a margin of about 14 points in Sandoval's favor."
August 27, 2010
For more than three decades, Nevada voters have had the choice of choosing "None of These Candidates" when they enter the voting booth. With a new
Mason-Dixon poll showing Nevadans very unhappy with their choices in the U.S. Senate race, the ballot line might actually help determine the victor.
Nate Silver thinks Sen. Harry Reid (D) may "be hoping to get an assist from the ballot option this year, which is unique among the 50 states. Indeed, there are those who think his entire campaign may be predicated upon it. Mr. Reid's job approval numbers, hovering around 40 percent in most polls, would ordinarily prevent a candidate from being re-elected. But his opponent Sharron Angle, whom Mr. Reid's campaign has tagged for her 'extreme and dangerous' views, might not be elected under ordinary circumstances either."
Major caveat: "None of These Candidates" cannot actually win the
election. If it were to win a plurality, the election would default to
the second-place candidate.
The latest tabulation of votes Peter Shumlin (D) is the winner of the five-way Democratic Vermont gubernatorial
primary but runner-up Doug Racine (D), who trails by just 197 votes, has called on election officials to conduct a
recount, the
Burlington Free Press reports.
Alaska U.S. Senate candidate Joe Miller (R) tweeted a link to an
article about Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) possibly taking the Libertarian Party nomination if she's defeated in the GOP primary with this message: "What's the difference between selling out your party's values and the oldest profession?"
Miller quickly deleted the tweet but
Swing State Project got a screenshot.
The
Houston Chronicle reports the entire inventory of electronic voting machines in Harris County, TX were destroyed in a fire. Voters are now being asked "to cast their ballots early to help the county cope with a possible shortage of equipment on election day."
What makes this most interesting is that Bill White (D), who is running a close race against Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), is from Harris County.
Here's a wake up call for the White House from
Public Policy Polling: Louisianans are feeling more and more that President Bush's leadership in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina was better than President Obama's on the massive gulf oil spill.
Key finding: 54% think Bush did the superior job of helping the state through a crisis to 33% who pick Obama.
Caveat: "Of course it should be noted that many of the people most negatively
impacted by the federal government's handling of Katrina aren't in
Louisiana to answer polls about it now."
Ousted New Jersey Education Commissioner Bret Schundler told the
Newark Star Ledger he asked Gov. Chris Christie (R)
to be fired rather than resign, so he could receive unemployment benefits.
Said Schundler: "I asked if they would mind writing a termination letter, instead of a resignation letter, because I do have a mortgage to pay, and I do have a daughter who's just started college. And I, frankly, will need the unemployment insurance benefits until I find another job... And they said fine. They said sure."
A new analysis shows candidates running for state and federal offices have spent $395 million on commercials for the midterm elections, compared to $286 million spent at this point during the 2006 midterms,
CNN reports.
It promises to grow dramatically in the coming weeks since most campaign ads aren't run until after Labor Day.
Also interesting: More than half of all commercials have been attack ads, and almost 70% of all commercials for the Senate have been negative. California, Florida, Pennsylvania, Alabama and Nevada are the top 5 states for negative ads this year.
"I don't think being mayor is about qualifications. It's really about the people liking you and believing in you."
-- Levi Johnston, in an interview on
CBS News, about running for mayor of Wasilla, Alaksa.
See more...
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) fired state education commissioner Bret Schundler -- once a rising star in the Republican party -- "after Schundler refused to resign in the wake of the controversy over the state's loss of up to $400 million in federal school funding," the
Newark Star Ledger reports.
Earlier in the week, Christie
blamed Obama administration for the mistake.
A new
Public Policy Polling survey shows Republicans leading the generic congressional ballot, 45% to 42%, despite the fact that congressional Republicans have a paltry 24% approval rating.
Even more interesting is that among respondents who said they were going to vote Republican, congressional Republicans still have only a 44% approval rating.
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