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Poland

Macro View

Markets

Finance & Banking

Geostrategic & Long Term Issues

Key Indicators

National Accounts
Real GDP Index - Gross Domestic Product
(corresponding period of previous year=100, NSA)
100.8,101.1,101.7,103.1,103 103
Consumer Price Index
Total
(corresponding period previous year=100, NSA)
102.9,102.6,102.4,102.2,102.3 102.3
Labor Force Survey
Total unemployment rate
(Percent, NSA)
8.3,7.9,8.1,8.5,10.6 10.6
Interest Rates
Central Bank - Reference Rate
(Percent, NSA)
3.5,3.5,3.5,3.5,3.5 3.5
Balance of Payments
Current Account - Total
(Millions US $, NSA)
-1012,146,-758,-569,-339 -339
Foreign Trade
Total Exports
(Millions of Zloty, NSA)
30834.9,34224.3,38506.9,34384.9,37649.8 37,649.8
data by Moody's

September 2010 Poland Outlook Update

After averting recession last year, Poland’s economy revved up in the first half of 2010, driven by domestic demand. Going forward, RGE sees consumer spending and inventory rebuilding driving growth over the rest of this year, with net exports acting as a slight drag. In line with the central bank’s projection, RGE foresees GDP for the whole of 2010 growing. Despite our expectation of an upturn in investment, we see the pace of growth moderating in Q4 2010 into 2011 as positive inventory effects fade and the global economy slows amid fiscal retrenchment in advanced economies. Consequently, we are forecasting below-consensus GDP growth for next year.

Read the September update to the 2010 Global Economic Outlook.

RGE Analysis

Europe Focus

PMIs Confirm EZ Slowdown Ahead; Rate Hikes Possible in Central Europe

RGE’s Europe Analyst Team Sep 24, 2010

RGE Analysis

Central Europe: Rate Hikes Back on the Table

By Mary Stokes Sep 24, 2010

RGE Analysis

Poland: Facing a Gas Crunch?

By Jelena Vukotic Sep 24, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Global Overview: September 2010 Outlook Update

Nouriel Roubini, Christian Menegatti and the RGE Macroeconomic Team Sep 10, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Poland: September 2010 Outlook Update

Mary Stokes Sep 10, 2010

Europe Focus

Periphery Bank Borrowings; German H2 Preview; Romania's IMF Loan Risk

By RGE's Europe Analyst Team Aug 27, 2010

RGE Analysis

Europe Weekly Spotlight: Eurozone Q2 Growth; Is Germany Rebalancing?; Polls Near in Latvia and Sweden

By Elisa Parisi-Capone, Katharina Jungen, Mary Stokes, Parul Walia, David Rogovic and Eric Persson Aug 13, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Central Europe: Q3 2010 Outlook

Mary Stokes Jul 12, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Poland: Q3 2010 Outlook

Mary Stokes Jul 12, 2010

RGE Analysis

EZ Rescue Response: Serious at Last?

By Elisa Parisi-Capone, Natalia Gurushina, Arnab Das and Nouriel Roubini May 10, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Poland: Q2 2010 Outlook

Mary Stokes Apr 12, 2010

RGE Analysis

Poland's Lost Leaders: Political and Macro Fallout

By Mary Stokes and Jelena Vukotic Apr 11, 2010

RGE Analysis

Time to Take Profit on Long Polish Zloty Positions

By Natalia Gurushina and Mary Stokes Mar 29, 2010

Global Economic Outlook

Poland: Q1 2010 Outlook

Mary Stokes Jan 30, 2010

RGE Analysis

Carry Trade Hotspots: A Currency by Currency Forecast for 2010

By Mikka Pineda, Mary Stokes, Bertrand Delgado, Mikko Forss, Kavitha Cherian, Arpitha Bykere and Christian Menegatti Jan 4, 2010

RGE Analysis

Come to Mother: An RGE Strategy for the 2010 Carry Trade

Arnab Das, Natalia Gurushina, Jennifer Kapila, Elisa Parisi-Capone Jan 4, 2010

RGE Analysis

RGE Currency Outlook: The Polish Zloty

By Mary Stokes Dec 1, 2009

RGE Analysis

Poland Economic Outlook, Q4 2009

Mary Stokes Oct 7, 2009

RGE Analysis

Poland Economic Outlook, Q3 2009

Mary Stokes Jul 24, 2009

EconoMonitors

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Poland: Facing a Gas Crunch?

Jelena Vukotic Sep 24, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Growth Surprises and Drivers Are Changing in Eastern Europe

Marcus Svedberg Apr 20, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

RGE's Wednesday Note - What Are the Political Implications of Poland’s Tragedy?

Jelena Vukotic Apr 14, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

What Greece’s Fiscal Crisis Could Mean for Eastern Europe

Mary Stokes and Jelena Vukotic Feb 22, 2010

Europe EconoMonitor

Getting Ready to Join the Eurozone Club

Marek Belka Feb 2, 2010

RGE Analysts' EconoMonitor

Bremmer-Roubini 2010 Global Forecast

Nouriel Roubini Jan 28, 2010

Daily Digest

Analysis

Gazprom Sees Window of Opportunity to Keep Poland Dependent

Jamestown Foundation  Vladimir Socor Oct 06, 2010

News

Polish Yields to Drop at First Sale of 2013 Bonds, PKO, SocGen, ING Say

Bloomberg  Piotr Skolimowski Oct 06, 2010

News

Czech Stock Exchange Falls Behind Poland Market After Missing `IPO Train'

Bloomberg  Ladka Bauerova and Krystof Chamonikolas Oct 06, 2010

Blogs

A property boom in emerging Europe? It’s really just Poland

Beyond Brics, Financial Times  Dan Thomas Oct 06, 2010

Analysis

CEEMEA: Balance of Payments: Digging Deeper

Morgan Stanley  Oct 05, 2010

Analysis

European Union Assists Poland to Rectify Agreement With Gazprom

Jamestown Foundation  Vladimir Socor Oct 05, 2010

News

Poland Set to Pick Two Bidders for Final Enea Asset Sale Talks, Grad Says

Bloomberg  Maciej Martewicz Oct 05, 2010

News

Erste Sees Return of Credit Growth, Less Bad Debt in East Europe in 2011

Bloomberg  Boris Groendahl Oct 05, 2010

News

Polish regions gang together

Warsaw Business Journal  Oct 05, 2010

News

Polish economy needs correctional rate hike-c.banker

Reuters  Karolina Slowikowska and Pawel Florkiewicz Oct 05, 2010

News

Poland not pleased with EC plans

Warsaw Business Journal  Oct 04, 2010

News

Poland's GDP to grow by 4 percent in 2011?

Warsaw Business Journal  Oct 01, 2010

News

Poland Weekly Review: Rates on hold

BRE Bank  Oct 01, 2010

News

Poland: Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2011

National Bank of Poland  Oct 01, 2010

Blogs

Poland makes recovery look easy

Financial Times  Jan Cienski Oct 01, 2010

Analysis

EMEA Weekly: Amidst a “Currency War”

Danske Bank  Oct 01, 2010

News

Poland's EU fund figures out

Warsaw Business Journal  Sep 30, 2010

News

China cranks up investment activity in Poland

Warsaw Business Journal  Sep 30, 2010

News

New debt management strategy for Poland

Warsaw Business Journal  Sep 30, 2010

News

Poland Shortnote: Rates remain flat (3.5%), awaiting new projection

ERSTE Bank  Jana Krajcova Sep 30, 2010

News

Pawlak Says Polish Ruling Coalition Won't Break Up Before 2011 Elections

Bloomberg  Monika Rozlal and Maciej Martewicz Sep 30, 2010

News

Survey finds €1,900bn hole in EU pensions

Financial Times  Paul J. Davies Sep 30, 2010

News

Polish gov't quietly preparing for euro adoption

Warsaw Business Journal  Sep 28, 2010

News

Poland gets the largest share of EU's budget pie

Warsaw Business Journal  Sep 28, 2010

News

Polish employment at pre-crisis levels

Warsaw Business Journal  Sep 30, 2010

Analysis

Central Europe Weekly: Finally good news from Hungary

KBC Banking & Insurance  Sep 30, 2010

News

Polish Central Bank Keeps Benchmark Interest Rate Unchanged for 15th Month

Bloomberg  Monika Rozlal and Piotr Skolimowski Sep 29, 2010

Blogs

Liberal Economists Turn Away From Poland’s Government

Wall Street Journal  Marynia Kruk and Marcin Sobczyk Sep 29, 2010

Analysis

Eastern Europe two years from Lehman Bros.

UniCredit Weekly Magazine  Matteo Ferrazzi Sep 29, 2010

News

Poland Delays Policy Change Sought for PGE’s Energa Takeover

Bloomberg  Nathaniel Espino Sep 29, 2010

News

Poland May Get Easier EU Budget Rules for Pensions, Rp.pl Says

Bloomberg  David McQuaid Sep 28, 2010

Blogs

Russia Stands Firm in Gas Talks With Poland, Daily Says

New Europe, Wall Street Journal  Marcin Sobczyk Sep 28, 2010

Analysis

Democracy in Poland 1989-2009: Challenges for the Future

Institute of Public Affairs  Jacek Kucharczyk and Jarosław Zbieranek (eds.) Sep 27, 2010

Blogs

Poles and Czechs protest against austerity

Beyond Brics, Financial Times  Jan Cienski Sep 27, 2010

Analysis

Wood Morning - Poland: retail sales up 6.6% in August

WOOD & Company  Barbara Zaleska Sep 27, 2010

News

East Europe `Old-School' Rate Hawks Unlikely to Prevail in 2010

Bloomberg  Agnes Lovasz Sep 27, 2010

Blogs

Will Poland Run Out of Russian Gas?

New Europe, Wall Street Journal  Marcin Sobczyk Sep 27, 2010

News

Poland's jobless rate inches down to 11.3 percent

Bloomberg BusinessWeek  Sep 24, 2010

News

CEE Real Estate: Outlook is brightening

ERSTE Bank  Sep 24, 2010

News

Polish Rate-Rise Bets Climb to 6-Month High on Retail Sales, Bank Minutes

Bloomberg  Piotr Skolimowski Sep 24, 2010

Analysis

EMEA Weekly: Rates firmly on hold everywhere

Danske Bank  Sep 24, 2010

Analysis

Poland: Facing a Gas Crunch?

Roubini Global Economics  Jelena Vukotic Sep 24, 2010

Analysis

PMIs Confirm EZ Slowdown Ahead; Rate Hikes Possible in Central Europe

Roubini Global Economics  RGE’s Europe Analyst Team Sep 24, 2010

Analysis

EMEA Weekly: Rates on Hold Everywhere

Danske Bank  Sep 24, 2010

Analysis

EMEA Bi-Weekly. Same old, same old

Commerzbank  Sep 24, 2010

Analysis

EM Country Briefing. CEE: Who is exposed to a downturn in the euro area?

Commerzbank AG  Tatha Ghose Sep 24, 2010

News

Poland, Russia to Renew Gas Supply Talks in 10 Days, EU Says

Bloomberg  Nathaniel Espino and Anna Shiryaevskaya Sep 24, 2010

Analysis

Poland Shortnote: Retail sales above expectations (+6.6%y/y), unemployment down to 11.3%

Erste Bank (free registration)  Jana Krajcova Sep 24, 2010

Blogs

Polish central bank more bullish

Financial Times  Emma Saunders Sep 23, 2010

Analysis

Baltic Rim Economies Weekly: Focus on Poland

DNB Nord  Sep 23, 2010

Analysis

Emerging Europe Outlook September 2010

Deutshe Bank Research  Maria Laura Lanzeni Sep 22, 2010

News

More Polish banking takeovers brewing

Warsaw Business Journal  Sep 22, 2010

News

Poland: Core Inflation Statistics

Poland National Bank  Sep 22, 2010

News

PGNiG Says Poland May Face Gas Shortage Next Month

Bloomberg  Marta Waldoch and Maciej Martewicz Sep 21, 2010

News

EU warns of gas shortage in Poland

EurActiv  Sep 20, 2010

News

Poland's industrial output soars

Warsaw Business Journal  Sep 17, 2010

Analysis

Poland Shortnote: Industrial output up by 13.5% y/y

ERSTE Bank  Sep 17, 2010

News

Polish companies eagerly invest in Germany

Warsaw Business Journal  Sep 17, 2010

News

Eastern European Growth `Won't Be Impressive,' EBRD President Mirow Says

Bloomberg  Radoslav Tomek and Agnes Lovasz Sep 17, 2010

Blogs

Deal of the day: Polish regulators may blow apart $2.5bn power swoop

Beyond Brics, Financial Times  Henry Mance Sep 17, 2010

News

Polish police detain exiled Chechen leader

Reuters  Sep 17, 2010

News

Poland: Innovation and education

Warsaw Business Journal  Sep 16, 2010

News

Emerging Markets Stocks Retreat for First Time in Six Days on China Banks

Bloomberg  Shiyin Chen and Jason Webb Sep 16, 2010

News

Polish inflation stable due to falling food prices

Warsaw Business Journal  Sep 16, 2010

News

Poland in for a gas crisis?

Warsaw Business Journal  Sep 16, 2010

News

Poland at Full Steam on National Electricity Group

Wall Street Journal  Marcin Sobczyk Sep 16, 2010