Majority of Americans would prefer a third party

Surprising?

Fifty-four percent of respondents in The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll said they’d like an alternative to the Democrats and Republicans.

That number rose to 67 percent for self-identified independents. But even a plurality in the established parties — 49 percent of Democrats and 46 percent of Republicans — said they’d like another choice.

“That’s probably the strongest number I’ve seen in a poll of people in America saying that they're interested in a third party,” said pollster Mark Penn.

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Poll: 4 of 10 Obama backers less happy with him now, though his personal approval rating is up

Bloomberg:

Hope has turned to doubt and disenchantment for almost half of President Barack Obama’s supporters.

More than 4 of 10 likely voters who say they once considered themselves Obama backers now are either less supportive or say they no longer support him at all, according to a Bloomberg National Poll conducted Oct. 7-10.

Obama’s deteriorating job-approval numbers are balanced by continuing regard for him personally: 53 percent of voters have a positive view of the president in the October poll, up from 49 percent in a July survey.

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Sarah Palin popularity down to 22%

22% - I think that would be the FOX News crowd. We need to keep reminding ourselves that the crazies running the GOP, like Palin, are only liked and listened to by one-fifth of the country. Stop treating her, and them, as if they represent most of America - they don't. Read More......

Majority of Americans believe free trade agreements hurt the US

So was it a poor job of selling free trade or is free trade in fact a bad thing for the country? NBC/WSJ Poll:

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows that 69 percent of Americans believe free trade agreements with other countries have cost jobs in the United States, while just 18 percent believe they have created jobs. A 53 percent majority—up from 46 percent three years ago and 30 percent in 1999—believes that trade agreements have hurt the nation overall.

Moreover, that rising skepticism extends across the political spectrum—a sign that continued trade expansion may be no easier for Republican leaders to promote if they regain control of Congress than it has been for Democrats.

While 65 percent of union members say free trade has hurt the U.S., so do 61 percent of Tea Party sympathizers. Democratic pollster Peter Hart and his Republican counterpart Bill McInturff, who conduct the NBC/WSJ poll, say the greatest shift against free trade has come among relatively affluent Americans, or those earning more than $75,000 a year.

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AP Poll: Americans support more health care coverage

So why aren't the Democrats talking about health care during the election cycle? Could it be that they know they settled for much less than most wanted? Despite the loud Teabaggers, more people support more coverage than are against it. Salon:

"I was disappointed that it didn't provide universal coverage," said Bronwyn Bleakley, 35, a biology professor from Easton, Mass.

More than 30 million people would gain coverage in 2019 when the law is fully phased in, but another 20 million or so would remain uninsured. Bleakley, who was uninsured early in her career, views the overhaul as a work in progress.

The poll found that about four in 10 adults think the new law did not go far enough to change the health care system, regardless of whether they support the law, oppose it or remain neutral. On the other side, about one in five say they oppose the law because they think the federal government should not be involved in health care at all.

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Poll: 71% blame Bush for economy

So why are the Democrats running in the opposite direction as if they have something to fear? Stand firm and fight for goodness sakes. USA Today/Gallup:

In a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday, more than a third of those surveyed said George W. Bush deserved a great deal of the blame for economic woes and a third said he should get a moderate amount of it. Not quite another third called that unfair, saying Bush warranted not much or none of the responsibility.

The 71% saying Bush should get blamed was a modest decline from the 80% who felt that way about a year ago, in July 2009.

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Poll: Unemployment affects three out of four Americans

Huff Post:

Nearly three out of four Americans have been directly affected by the recession, either because they have been unemployed or know someone who has lost their job, according to a new survey.

The report, prepared by Rutgers professors Carl Van Horn and Cliff Zukin, find that 73% of Americans have either been unemployed themselves (14%) or saw an immediate family member (12%), another member of their family (30%) or a close friend (17%) lose a job.

The survey also finds profound pessimism about where the economy is headed. More than half of Americans say they believe the downturn reflects a "lasting economic change" (56%) rather than a "temporary economic downturn" (43%). Large majorities believe that the economy will remain in recession or worse a year from now.

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Is it such a bad thing if DC 'elites' have different opinions than the average American?

With all due respect, I don't want the average American running my government. As Jon Stewart once said (and I paraphrase): I want my president to be smarter than me. I remember one poll, a few months back, showing that only 6% or so of the American people believed that the stimulus created any jobs. As CBO showed, the 94% were wrong. So I'm sure that those of us who believed the stimulus created jobs were out of step with the mainstream of American opinion. We were also right.

I want DC populated with people who are smarter than the rest of the country. Only in America do we worship at the altar of dumb (e.g., Sarah Palin), and look with distrust on those who are smarter than us. Read More......

Poll: 68% of Americans say political class doesn't care about what they think

Only 68%?

The frustration that voters are expressing in 2010 goes much deeper than specific policies. At a more fundamental level, voters just don’t believe politicians are interested in the opinions of ordinary Americans.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 68% believe the nation’s Political Class doesn’t “care what most Americans think.” Only 15% believe the Political Class is interested in the views of those they are supposed to serve. Another 17% are not sure.

Skepticism about the Political Class interest in voters is found across just about all demographic and partisan groups. However, self-identified liberals are evenly divided on the question. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of conservatives and 64% of moderates reject the notion that the Political Class cares.

Adults over 40 are more skeptical than younger adults about the Political Class. But even among voters under 30, nearly half (47%) don’t think the Political Class cares what most Americans think. Only 18% of these younger voters think the Political Class does care, while 35% are not sure.

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Americans blame Bush, not Obama, for deficit, jobs, Afghan wa

Bloomberg:

Democrats, facing a U.S. electorate angry about the economy and other issues, still have one political asset: George W. Bush.

The former Republican president is blamed more than President Barack Obama for the budget deficit, unemployment and illegal immigration, according to a Bloomberg National Poll conducted July 9-12.

Most surprising is that 60 percent say Bush is primarily responsible for the current situation in Afghanistan. Just 10 percent point to Obama, who has ordered 51,000 additional troops to that country since taking office, doubling the number deployed by Bush.

But Obama isn't exactly surging in the polls. People blame Bush, but they want Obama to fix it. Read More......

Confidence in Obama reaches new low in ABC/Wash Post poll

Wash Post:

Public confidence in President Obama has hit a new low, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. Four months before midterm elections that will define the second half of his term, nearly six in 10 voters say they lack faith in the president to make the right decisions for the country, and a clear majority once again disapproves of how he is dealing with the economy.

I do think the President has finally realized that he needs to fight, at least use fighting words, which is a step forward. But the albatross around his neck is the economy, and specifically, the unemployment rate. That rate is directly attributable to the President's decision not to push for a full stimulus, but rather cut the stimulus in half and then give 35% away to the GOP in the form of useless tax cuts. The result is exactly what Krugman and Stiglitz predicated at the time: high unemployment and a limping recovery, mixed with a threat of a double dip recession.

It may seem like beating a dead horse to note that we're in this current mess because the President screwed up, but until he shows that he's learned his lesson, and is willing to fight for things, from the beginning, and full-bore, it's worth repeating. Bad decisions have consequences, and they tend to come back and bite you in the ass. Read More......

Lakoff on how Democrats frame messages

Democratic messaging guru George Lakoff in Huff Post:

In the US, conservatives have set up an elaborate messaging system. It starts with an understanding of long-term framing and message experts who know how to use existing their long-term frame systems. Then there are think tanks, with experts who understand the high-level frame system and how it applies to the full range of issues. There are training institutes that teach tens of thousands of conservatives a year to think and talk using these framing systems and their language and argument forms. There are regular gatherings to consolidate messaging and policy around a contemporary issue that fits the conservative moral system. There are booking agencies that book conservative spokespeople on tv, talk radio, etc. There are lecture venues and booking agencies for conservative spokespeople. There are conservative media going on 24/7/365.

As a result, conservative language is heard constantly in many parts of the US. Conservative language automatically and unconsciously activates conservative frames and the high-level framing systems they are part of. As the language is heard over and over, the circuitry linking the language to conservative frames becomes stronger. Because the synapses in the neural circuits are stronger, they are easier to activate. As a result, conservative language tends to become the normal, preferred "mainstream" language for discussing current issues.

This messaging system has existed and has been extended and strengthened over many years. Democrats have a few of these elements, but they are relatively ineffective, since they tend to view messaging as short-term and issue-based, rather than long-term and morally based. Democrats tend not to understand how framing works, and often confuse framing (which is deep, long-term, systematic, morality-based, and conceptual) with messaging (which is shallow, short-term, ad hoc, policy-based, and linguistic).

This situation puts Democrats at a messaging disadvantage relative to conservatives, which leads to conservative victories. Hence the regular need for disaster messaging.

When the Democrats are out-messaged, they call upon polling and focus groups to given an "empirical, evidential" account of public opinion and which language is preferred by the public. The "evidence" comes from polls and focus groups that test the normal "mainstream" language and logic, versus language and logic that is not "mainstream." This is, naturally, conservative language and logic, because the conservative messaging system has systematically made it that way patiently over years. The pollsters therefore report that the "mainstream" of Americans prefer the conservative language and logic, and the policies that go with them. The pollsters then suggest moving to right to go to where the public is. They then construct and test messages that move enough to right to satisfy the "mainstream." They also construct "good arguments." If the "good arguments" activate the conservative worldview, the conservative position will just get stronger in the brains of the voters.

What's Wrong?

When the Democrats use conservative language, they activate more than the conservative framing on the given issue. They also activate and strengthen the high level, deep conservative moral frames. This tends to make voters more conservative overall -- and leads them to choose the real conservative position on the given issue, rather than the sort of conservative version provided by the democrats.

Disaster framing is a disaster.

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Nasty poll numbers for Obama/Dems

NBC/WSJ:

Support for Mr. Obama and his party is declining among centrist, independent voters. But, more ominous for the president, some in his base also are souring, with 17% of Democrats disapproving of Mr. Obama's job performance, the highest level of his presidency.

Approval for Mr. Obama has dropped among Hispanics, too, along with small-town residents, white women and seniors. African-Americans remain the firmest part of Mr. Obama's base, with 91% approving of his job performance.

49% rate him positively when asked if he has "strong leadership qualities,'' down from 70% when Mr. Obama took office and a drop of 8 points since January.

Just 44% of Obama voters—those who voted for Mr. Obama in 2008 or told pollsters they intended to—now express high interest in the midterm elections. That's a 38-point drop from this stage in the 2008 campaign.

By contrast, 71% of voters who supported Republican John McCain in 2008 expressed high interest in this year's elections, slightly higher than their interest level at this stage in that campaign.

Just 44% of Obama voters—those who voted for Mr. Obama in 2008 or told pollsters they intended to—now express high interest in the midterm elections. That's a 38-point drop from this stage in the 2008 campaign.

By contrast, 71% of voters who supported Republican John McCain in 2008 expressed high interest in this year's elections, slightly higher than their interest level at this stage in that campaign.

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ABC Poll: BP Oil Spill Response Rated Worse than Katrina

This poll explains why Obama is talking tough on TV. The recent aggressive tone makes you wonder what the smartest people in the room at the White House have been thinking as the situation unraveled. How could they not have been in front of this problem? They only sound defensive and out of character at this point. Did their deep conversations with the experts convince them that somehow the oil would miraculously disappear? The White House messaging continues to be a flop and part of the problem. ABC News:

By more than a 2-to-1 margin, Americans support the pursuit of criminal charges in the nation's worst oil spill , with increasing numbers calling it a major environmental disaster. Eight in 10 criticize the way BP's handled it – and more people give the federal government's response a negative rating than did the response to Hurricane Katrina.

A month and a half after the spill began, 69 percent in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll rate the federal response negatively. That compares with a 62 negative rating for the response to Katrina two weeks after the August 2005 hurricane.

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76% of Americans still believe recession is ongoing

Turning this impression around is not going to be easy and is going to take time. The Democrats still need to do a much better job of showing voters whose side they are on in this economic fight. They also need to make the GOP pay more of a price for supporting the bankers, who caused the recession. CNBC:

The survey shows that 76 percent of Americans believe that the US economy remains in recession; an even larger 81 percent describe themselves as dissatisfied with the economy.

That's a major reason why 56 percent of Americans say the country is still on the wrong track, notwithstanding recent positive economic news. Obama's own job approval rating rose slightly, to 50 percent, since the March survey.

That dissatisfaction has erased the edge in Congressional races that Democrats enjoyed a year ago. Now, voters split evenly on whether Democrats or Republicans should control Congress after this fall's mid-term elections. More encouraging for Republicans, their party enjoys a wide edge in enthusiasm about the election.

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Halperin: Obama has been boldly successful

I want the President to be bold and successful, but Halperin's story just doesn't ring true. Here's how Halperin begins:

Barack Obama's right-wing opponents have cast him as a socialist failure. His left-wing hecklers see him as an over-cautious hedger. But, critics notwithstanding, President Obama is on the path to be a huge success by the time of November's midterm elections.

Before the Right jabbers (what about the huge debt, the broken tax pledge, the paucity of overseas accomplishments?), the Left yammers (Guantanamo hasn't been closed, gays aren't serving openly in the military, too many policies cater to business interests!), and the media chides (POTUS and party poll numbers are down, Washington is more partisan than ever), look at the two key metrics that underscore Obama's accomplishments.

It's cute to be dismissive and condescending to civil rights advocates and civil libertarians, but the fact remains that the right is mad that Obama is a "socialist" - which is insane - and the left is mad that the President has refused to keep many of his campaign promises, which is a fact. Halperin is being sloppy equating the two. Then there's this:

The passage of health care and the pledge to help Democrats wherever possible with fundraising and political assistance has (for now at least) quieted the Capitol Hill voices that until recently were questioning the White House's competence and commitment.

The Capitol Hill voices were questioning the White House's competence because they made a mess of health care reform by refusing to engage for over a year. So the "voices" were correct. Once the President finally decided to lead, people were happier. Of course. That doesn't disprove the questioning - if anything, it shows that the concerns were right. That the President needs to lead more often, and when he does, he can win.

Secondly, let's remember what we got with health care reform versus what we were promised. The President promised a heck of a lot more than what he ended up with. And he didn't end up with less because "you always have to settle for less in a negotiation." He got less because he started negotiating with himself, caving on his promises, from the beginning. That, again, is why people on Capitol Hill, and many other places, questioned his approach. And in the end, we got much less than we could have gotten because of the President's approach. Again, this does not prove that he is a boldly successful President. It proves his critics right.

Then there's this:

Over the past sixteen months, both Biden and Emanuel have expressed concern internally that Obama has been too bold, risking his presidency on big bets. But those disagreements with the President have been fleeting and mostly futile — and, as it happens, unwarranted. So far, most of Obama's big bets have paid off.

Too bold? And his boldness paid off? Where was the President too bold? He pushed for a stimulus that was less than half the size it needed to be, from the git-go, then gave 35% away in tax cuts to woo the GOP, who would not be wooed. He wasn't bold on health care reform. He hasn't been bold on gay rights, or immigration, or climate change. Where was he bold?

More on the stimulus:

Quibble all you wish about the dimensions of the stimulus law or the administration of the TARP or the Detroit bailout, but the actions taken were professionally handled, apparently necessary, and, so far, constructive.

The "quibble" is that the President tried to do less than what he thought necessary to stop the country from falling into another Great Depression. That's hardly a quibble. Secondly, we are in a jobless recovery because the stimulus was too small, as predicted. And because of that jobless recovery, among other factors, we may lose control of the Congress this fall. How is all this a quibble?

I want President Obama to succeed. That's why I came out swinging for him in the primaries. But I don't think it does him, or any of us, much good to pretend that the last sixteen months have been an amazing example of bold success. We are in some significant trouble as a party because of the President's lack of boldness, from the economy to his handling of health care reform (a topic that is still hurting Democrats in the polls). We don't learn from our mistakes if we white wash them. Read More......

Gallup poll: it's the economy, stupid. Again

Not that it's much of a surprise though. Turning things around is not an easy process. Remember, it took decades of Republican policies to make such a mess and it won't change overnight. There are positive signs out there but this is not an economy that will improve quickly. At a minimum, people need to see progress. Gallup:

Fifty-seven percent of registered voters say the economy will be extremely important to their vote for Congress this year, making it the top issue in the 2010 elections. Healthcare, unemployment, and the federal budget deficit rank behind the economy in importance, with the environment the least important of the seven issues tested in the March 26-28 USA Today/Gallup poll.

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1 in 4 Republicans think Obama may be the anti-Christ, 38% think he's doing many things that Hitler did

This isn't funny. We have a serious problem in this country, and any sane Republicans who are left had better get a hold of their party. Hard to read these results and not think "Timothy McVeigh."

Per the latest Harris poll, the number of Republicans who think Obama...

- Is a socialist (67%)
- Wants to take away Americans' right to own guns (61%)
- Is a Muslim (57%)
- Wants to turn over the sovereignty of the United States to a one world government (51%); and
- Has done many things that are unconstitutional (55%).
- Resents America's heritage (47%)
- Was not born in the United States and so is not eligible to be president (45%)
- Is the "domestic enemy that the U.S. Constitution speaks of" (45%)
- Is a racist (42%)
- Want to use an economic collapse or terrorist attack as an excuse to take dictatorial powers (41%)
- Is doing many of the things that Hitler did (38%).
- Even more remarkable perhaps, fully 24% of Republicans believe that "he may be the Anti-Christ" and 22% believe "he wants the terrorists to win."

The results are from the first week of March. (Hat tip: Mediaite.) Read More......

New poll shows public disagrees with Obama over handling of terror suspects

UPDATE: Greg Sargent thinks the poll isn't as bad as it sounds. So I pulled some of the data directly from the poll itself (pdf file). I think Greg's right. The poll is actually much better for Obama than Politico portrayed it. Other than linking to Ben Smith, and perhaps one more reporter, I'm going to cut back the links to Politico. Their reporting is simply too skewed to the sensational, and I'm tired of falling for their piecemeal approach to finding the one bad apple in a poll. Overall, the poll isn't bad for Obama, though it is pretty darn bad for Democrats in Congress.

As I've mentioned before, I think Obama shares the blame for Congress' low approval numbers. It's interesting, however, that in the polls the Democrats receive more of the blame. That suggests that personally Obama is still popular, and the public is willing to cut him some slack. Even when, in my view, he's a lot of the cause of the problem.

I'm pulling the "likely voter" data.

Country going in right direction: 31
Wrong track: 62

Approve Obama: 47
Disapprove: 48

Who favor in generic congressional election
Dem: 44
Repub: 47

America more or less safe than two years ago (i.e., under Bush)
More safe: 41
Less Safe: 44

US more or less respected in world than two years ago:
More respected: 41
Less: 51

Approve/Disapprove of Obama on various issues (again, likely voters)
Economy: 42/57
National Security: 57/40
Fighting terrorism: 54-41
Actually, the rest of the single issue polls are pretty positive for Obama as well, other than on Iran.

_________________
It's an absurd poll. It's about the Christmas underwear bomber. Seems the GOP talking points, about it being wrong to mirandize the bomber, are starting to have an effect. It's absurd because, under non-torture questioning the bomber talked.

So, just like the poll showing that only 6% of the American people believe the stimulus created any jobs (in fact, CBO says it created from 1m to 2m or so jobs already), and the Newsweek poll that showed that people disapprove of President Obama's health care reform plan until they find out the details, then they love it, this is yet another example of the White House being incapable of delivering its message to the American people.

Of course, what's more disturbing is that we've had ample evidence that the White House's messaging operation isn't doing its job, and hasn't been for a year. When will someone do something about it? After we lose the House and Senate? After we lose the White House in 2012?

Where Obama loses: interrogation and prosecution of terrorism suspects, where a 51-44 percent majority disapproves. Republicans have hammered the administration for its decision to read the alleged Christmas Day bomber his Miranda rights, and the poll results show the message is sticking.

“Two months of Republican criticism have taken a toll,” the pollsters say, with a plurality of likely voters saying they feel less confident about Obama’s handling of national security because of the way he handled the Christmas Day attempt. “And when phrased as a partisan attack, a 60 percent majority of likely voters feels more confident about the Republicans on national security,” they said.

On national security, the poll found that 50 percent of likely voters prefer Republicans, while only 33 percent prefer Democrats. It’s the return of a “security gap” that all but vanished in 2008 because of Obama’s popularity and Bush’s mishandling of Iraq.

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Will the 21st century belong to China?

That's what many Americans think. Having started my adult working career during the "Japan is taking over the world economy, we're doomed" years and then working closely with Japan back in the 1990s, I'm less convinced. Also, too many people see the high growth related to China but overlook the problems that could easily change the dynamics. When bubbles burst - and they always do - responses can vary dramatically. Without a booming economy, how easy will it be for the communist party to maintain its grip on the country? With unrest already causing problems during the good times, how bad will it be in the future? How will China react if the West doesn't start buying Chinese products again at pre-recession rates?

As for the US, clearly the system is off though the US also has an ability to remake itself better and faster than most countries. Corporate lobbying and influence in the US is damaging America's ability to compete on a global scale. When the US was more of a closed system, it was possible to get away with such a system but with easy access to foreign competitors. These days, however, something needs to change in the US to prepare businesses for the global market. The US also needs to be a leader in new technologies and not a follower.

What's the mood here? Is this century destined to be all about China or somewhere in the middle?

Asked whether this century would be more of an "American Century" or more of a "Chinese Century," Americans divide evenly in terms of the economy (41 percent say Chinese, 40 percent American) and tilt toward the Chinese in terms of world affairs (43 percent say Chinese, 38 percent American). A slim majority say the United States will play a diminished role in the world's economy this century, and nearly half see the country's position shrinking in world affairs more generally.

The results are consistent with recent polls by Gallup, the Pew Research Center and others that have tracked a significant public concern about China's growing prominence on the world stage, as its economy has expanded into what is arguably the second-biggest in the world. In 2000, for example, when the U.S. economy was booming, 65 percent of Americans polled by Gallup said the United States had the world's strongest economy. By last year, the United States and China ran neck-and-neck on the question.

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