Today marks the end of Blogometer's five-year run. Since our initial post was written on March 30, 2005, the political blogosphere has grown enormously in size and influence. No one blinked when the 2007 Yearly Kos convention (now called Netroots Nation) drew all but one of the Dem WH '08 candidates, including then-Sens. Barack Obama (D-IL) and Hillary Clinton (D-NY). Online fundraising helped power Dems to big gains in '06 and '08, and Sen. Scott Brown's (R-MA) highly successful January money-bomb suggests that the rightroots will use these same tactics to help GOP candidates in this year's midterms. Meanwhile, bloggers have played a key role in recruiting candidates and debating legislative tactics, and they will undoubtedly continue to do so in the years to come. It's been our pleasure covering the blogosphere for you, and we hope that you enjoyed reading Blogometer. On behalf of my predecessors -- William Beutler and Conn Carroll -- and myself: you stay classy, San Diego.
- RedState editor Erick Erickson continues to promote the candidacy of state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (R) in advance of tomorrow's IN SEN GOP primary. Erickson writes: "A Senate Conservatives Fund poll shows 30% of Indiana voters are undecided as of Thursday night. Stutzman has the firmest support, but he and [ex-Rep. John] Hostettler are tied at 18% with [ex-Sen. Dan] Coats at 28%. There is still a lot of movement out there and Marlin having such firm support is a huge advantage for him. It might be time for the Hostettler people to stand with [SC Sen.] Jim DeMint and rally to Stutzman." Meanwhile, NRO's Jim Geraghty thinks Stutzman will have a future in GOP politics even if he loses tomorrow: "Stutzman has attracted some passionate support, and there's no shame in a 34-year-old finishing a respectable second or third in a Senate primary. His future in state politics looks bright; if and when [GOP Rep.] Mark Souder retires, the Howe, Indiana resident would seem to be a natural replacement, and one has to wonder how many more terms the 66-year-old Coats would want to serve."
- Erickson reports that ex-Focus on the Family chair James Dobson "is retracting his endorsement of [KY SEN candidate Trey] Grayson and is now on the Rand Paul team." Erickson: "James Dobson says he was 'misled' and 'Senior Republican leaders' told him Rand Paul is pro-choice. Exactly which members of the Republican leadership lied to James Dobson? That's almost like lying to the Pope. Geez."
- Geraghty thinks Dems are being "wildly presumptuous" in declaring that HI-01 candidate Charles Djou (R) will lose in November even if he wins the 5/22 special: "You're seeing a few liberal bloggers declare that this is such a unique circumstance that if Djou wins, come November, any Democratic nominee will knock him off. I think they're wildly presumptuous. Djou is a genuinely good candidate, near-impossible to paint as just another Republican. The DCCC attacks on him are pathetically generic; either their research team has quit or Djou really has never done anything controversial or unpopular in his political career. If Djou wins, he'll have a half a year or so to start serving constituents and building up the traditional advantages of an incumbent." Hot Air's Ed Morrissey is impressed by Djou's performance: "This district went for Barack Obama by 70% in 2008. Even if one combined the polls for [ex-Rep. Ed] Case and [state Sen. Colleen] Hanabusa, the Democrat brand seems to have suffered a significant decline in Obama's home district." Meanwhile, Djou held a live chat with RedState readers this a.m.
- Geraghty thinks ex-MD Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) could win back the governorship: "The Democrat who beat him [in '06], Martin O'Malley, ran with the political wind at his back and with a platform full of promises. The average Marylander is not better off now than he was four years ago. Yes, it's an extraordinarily Democratic state, and Ehrlich's 46 percent approval rating looks good compared to a lot of other Democratic incumbents. But this seems like a tough environment to be running on 'four more years of the same.'"
- PPP's Tom Jensen notes that Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D) has "expand[ed] her lead" over ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) in the NC SEN Dem primary, but adds: "The news isn't all bad for Cunningham though. 70% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 60% of Marshall's who say the same of her. In what's likely to be a very low turnout race having the most passionate supporters could really make a difference. Also, the largest amount of undecided voters are in the greater Charlotte area where Cunningham is running television ads and Marshall is not."
LEST WE FORGET: More Or Less, Allowing For Individual Variation...
From Overheard in New York:
Father: It was the Million Man March. It was a million men marching in the capital for our people.
Son: No girls? No moms?
Father: No girls, just men.
Son: So there was a million penises?
Father (trying to bring it back onto subject): Yes. But it was the Million Man March.
Son: So there were two million balls?
Father: That's not the point.
Son: But everybody had one penis and two balls, right?
Father: Presumably.
As we noted yesterday, most conservative bloggers believe that FL Gov. Charlie Crist's (R) decision to run for Senate as indie won't be enough to save his campaign. Allahpundit declares: "Independent candidates simply don't win true three-way elections, and cynical, careerist, opportunistic, lying candidates really don't win in a political climate like 2010." Although the rightroots are angry with Crist, they don't seem particularly concerned that his indie bid will pose much of a threat to ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), since they consider Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) to be a weak candidate. Patrick Ruffini is even suggesting that Rubio supporters consider helping Meek: "Though I'm fully confident in Marco Rubio's ability to beat Charlie Crist a second time, an IE propping up Meek might not be a bad idea."
- RealClearPolitics' Jay Cost thinks Crist is making a big mistake: "What the hell is Charlie Crist doing? This is insane. [...] The alternative would be to bow out gracefully, heartily endorse Marco Rubio, campaign like the dickens for him in the fall, and wait for the next opening in Florida politics. Instead, he is about to piss off every Republican in the country, and he's not going to win over the affections of the Democrats, who clearly sense an opportunity to get one of their own into the seat. His political career will be over in just a few short months. What a fool."
- Hot Air's Allahpundit agrees with Cost: "To have a credible shot, [Crist] needs 35 percent of Republicans and 30 percent of Democrats, which almost certainly isn't happening. [...] Independent candidates simply don't win true three-way elections, and cynical, careerist, opportunistic, lying candidates really don't win in a political climate like 2010."
- Liberal bloggers continue to pooh-pooh Crist's chances. David Dayen writes: "Best of luck to him. His challenges include the lack of any staff willing to join his campaign, a shaky fundraising future, and no party organization for GOTV. I hope those polls have him up really big in a three-way contest, because it'll be the last time he grades that high." FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver adds: "Long story short, I think this analysis by Marco Rubio's campaign is actually quite trenchant and that Crist has a tough road ahead." Meanwhile, Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas writes: "Now, let's hope for a slash and burn campaign against his party."
- NRO's Jim Geraghty still considers Meek an underdog: "Permit me to throw a bit of cold water on those who think Crist's independent bid turns Democrat Kendrick Meek into the odds-on favorite: Here is a list of Meek's percentage of the vote in six polls on this scenario since November: 31, 24, 27, 25, 24, 22. He has led none of them, he is in third place in four of them. In other words, he needs to build on his current level of support. Crist's independent bid splits the existing Republican vote, but there so far hasn't been enough Meek backers to get him a win under either scenario." Meanwhile, Ruffini Tweets: "Though I'm fully confident in Marco Rubio's ability to beat Charlie Crist a second time, an IE propping up Meek might not be a bad idea."
- PPP's Tom Jensen thinks Crist's indie bid actually helps Rubio: "45% of Democratic voters have a favorable opinion of Crist while only 29% have a favorable opinion of Meek. Compare that to 52% of Republicans with a favorable opinion of Rubio and 28% with a favorable one of Crist. If Crist is more popular with the Democrats than their candidate and less popular with the Republicans than their candidate it stands to reason he'll pull more of the Democratic vote long term. Maybe that will change down the road once Meek becomes better known but for now it's good for Crist. Republicans are going to be angry at Crist for leaving the GOP, but it may actually be the best thing he's done for the party in months. It should help Marco Rubio's chances of getting to the Senate."
What else is happening in the blogosphere?
- Moulitsas is excited about the new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll showing AR LG Bill Halter (D) gaining on Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR). Moulitsas writes: "A month ago, Lincoln had a solid 13-point lead, 44-31, that has been whittled down to eight points, and at 43 percent, Lincoln's chances of a 1st-round knockout are growing dimmer by the day. If neither candidate gets over 50 percent, there will be a three-week runoff, and the last thing Lincoln needs is to give Halter more time to close the deal. The trendlines are certainly not in her favor. [...] There are still over three weeks until the May 18 primary, Halter's current strategy is thus far doing the trick."
- Moulitsas is also promoting his new NV SEN poll, which shows ex-NV GOP Chair Sue Lowden (R) slipping. Moulitsas writes: "You know Harry Reid has his fingers crossed that Lowden can [win the GOP primary]. Her inability to deal with her chicken-based health care plan would pay dividends all the way to November."
- Ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee has posted a diary on RedState explaining his recent endorsements: "I realize that I am preaching to the choir on Redstate when I say we need: Chuck DeVore, Marco Rubio and Marlin Stutzman in the US Senate. We do. We need three firm votes in the Senate AGAINST bailouts, Obamacare and the many tax increases that our coming our way to pay for both. We need strong defenders of the 2nd amendment, life, traditional marriage and wait for it...REAL BORDER SECURITY!"
LEST WE FORGET: Hit Singles From The 1990's In Passive Voice
McSweeney's contributor Jim Rodovich:
- Bryan Adams: "Everything That Is Done By Me Is Done By Me For You"
- Aerosmith: "It Is Not Desired For A Thing To Get Missed"
- U2: "I Should Be Held, I Should Be Thrilled, I Should Be Kissed, I Should Be Killed"
- Live: "There Is Some Crashing Of Some Lightning"
- Puff Daddy (feat. Mase): "Can't Be Held Down By Nobody"
- Boyz II Men: "You'll Have My Love Made To You"
- Chumbawumba: "Having Been Tubthumped"
In this week's NationalJournal.com bloggers poll, left-leaning bloggers see financial services legislation as mostly a winning issue for Democrats.
On the left, 50 percent of responders said Wall Street reform would help the Democrats a lot, while 44 percent said it would help a little. On the right, 40 percent said it would hurt Republicans a little and the same portion predicted it would have no impact.
"The American people are overwhelmingly with the Democrats on this issue, and, judging by their cloddish behavior, Republicans seem determined to keep it that way," said David Kravitz, expressing a common viewpoint on the left. But Susie Madrak, who said it would help a little, wrote, "People want blood. Other than the symbolic public spanking, they're not going to get it." And Gregg Levine, who said it would have no impact, suggested the Democrats won't win the image war: "Even Democrats in Congress are hard-pressed to explain how their bill will help so-called Main Street."
On the right, meanwhile, Dave Kopel said it would hurt the GOP a little: "Republicans would be wrong, as a matter of policy and of politics, to oppose reforms which would reduce the ability of Wall Street to make the public pay for losing bets on complex financial instruments." Rob Port said it might be overshadowed by health care fallout: "Not a lot of Americans feel like banking reform impacts them, even though it does." And James Joyner said it was most likely "too complicated to have much saliency. The election will be about jobs and punishing incumbents."
Bloggers were also asked if they would support debt reduction efforts by President Obama's fiscal commission in each of five areas. Right-leaners went strongest for discretionary spending, Medicare and Social Security costs; the left favored defense spending and tax increases.
Right-leaner Bob Parks said yes to all but defense cuts, writing, "What happened to focusing like a laser beam on jobs and the economy? Note to President Obama: People can't eat health care or Goldman Sachs." On the other side, Big Tent Democrat voted yes to all options, saying that when the panel focuses, "it should address the problems as they actually exist -- the most prominent undoubtedly being the undertaxation of the wealthy."
See complete results and all the bloggers' comments after the jump.
Continue reading "BLOGGERS POLL: Street Legal" »
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