Friday, September 03, 2004

New Zogby Poll: Americans want someone new as president, 48%-46%


See, these are the details you DON'T hear about when the media is busy telling you how it's almost guaranteed that Bush is going to win again. Note that this is the same Zogby poll that shows Bush now ahead by only 2% (well within the margin of error). But the main thing to note here is that people WANT to get rid of Bush, they just need to like Kerry a bit more. And more importantly, even after a WEEK at the convention, the American public STILL want to get rid of the guy.

And even the much-trumpeted Time Magazine poll that shows Bush ahead by 11 points, guess what the SAME people said when asked if Bush deserved to be re-elected? 51% said re-elect, 47% said time for someone else. That's only a 4% lead, AGAIN within the margin of error, which just happens to be 4%.

So what the polls really say is that people don't love George Bush, and many people would like to see him go, but they still don't totally like John Kerry. It's our job to make them hate George Bush and like John Kerry. Let's get to it folks. Unlike our president, I know we can win IT.

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Falwell defends Zell Miller, and says he met with Frist at convention


Two problems here.

1. Jerry Falwell is now defending Zell Miller's Buchanan-esque keynote screed at the GOP convention. In an email I just received as an honored member of Falwell's weekly email rant, Falwell says:
"I thank God for intrepid men like Sen. Zell Miller who will stand against a terrible tide of unreasonable disparagement in order to defend the nation we love."
2. Falwell announces that he met with Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) while he was at the GOP convention.
"I was able to meet with several party officials, including Senate Majority Leader William Frist, who were actively involved in creating and guarding the platform."
Now, why is the Republican leader of the US Senate meeting with a nutjob who claimed that September 11 was caused by gays and lesbians, pro-choicers and the ACLU? Falwell stuck by his comments as recently as this past week, and Frist is still meeting with him? It's high time some enterprising journalist asked Frist why he is meeting with bigots. Wasn't Trent Lott's lesson enough? Read More......

Alan Keyes stands by his criticism of Mary Cheney


Got to love this man.
As for the his remarks about the vice president's daughter, Keyes said he didn't see what all the fuss was about.

'They asked me a question about the platform's opposition to gay marriage, and I gave what I think is the right and true argument to justify it, and when they applied that argument to Mary Cheney what was I supposed to say?' he said.

'Was I supposed to say, 'Oh, well, this applies to everyone but the vice president's daughter because we give special privileges to Republican children?'

Keyes was asked if he cared that people might be alienated by such comments.
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Actually, maybe they did boo... Bush supporters want Clinton to die


UPDATE: Several new accounts are now coming in suggesting that the crowd DID IN FACT boo Clinton's get well wish from Bush. Before we write this story off completely, it's going to need some more research. I want video and audio folks, anyone?
------

AP has now corrected the story, and it appears that there was more oohing than booing (i.e., surprise that Clinton was ill). Unless I hear otherwise, I'll let this one go.

Sure sounds like it. They actually booed when Bush wished Clinton well at a campaign stop. What pathetic excuses for human beings. And think about it - Whoopi makes a few jokes about Bush at a campaign stop for Kerry and she loses her job and Kerry gets blasted. Clinton's survival gets booed at a Bush campaign stop and BUSH REPORTEDLY DOES NOTHING TO STOP IT.

Bush should apologize immediately.
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More Bush links to Swift Boat Vets.


Sure, Bush has nothing to do with it. According to AP:
Two former Vietnam prisoners of war who appear in ads attacking Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry were appointed by the Bush administration to a panel advising the Department of Veterans Affairs.
The former POWs in the ad, Kenneth Cordier and Paul Galanti, serve on the VA's 12-member Former POW Advisory Committee. VA Secretary Anthony Principi appointed Cordier in 2002 and Galanti in 2003.
For those outside of the DC area, these kinds of posts are not generally the kind that go to random people, particularly if they are political appointees. They go to people who are connected. Read More......

New Time Poll shows Bush with 11 point lead


From Time Magazine:
For the first time since the Presidential race became a two person contest last spring, there is a clear leader, the latest TIME poll shows. If the 2004 election for President were held today, 52% of likely voters surveyed would vote for President George W. Bush, 41% would vote for Democratic nominee John Kerry, and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader, according to a new TIME poll conducted from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2.
I've checked out all of the other polls that were taken during the convention, and none of them are anything like this. I'm going to stand by my 3-5% ahead for Bush because anything more than that would have to be a move of almost 10 points - that seems to me more than is likely. Read More......

Kerry kicking more ass


The guy is smokin' right now.
"I don't think this is something to celebrate. I think it's something to get to work on," Kerry said to a small group gathered at in Mark and Debbie Bickle's front yard.
"The president wants you to re-elect him. For what?" Kerry said. "Losing jobs? Building the biggest deficit in American history? Getting us into a war that you spent $200 billion on when he told you it would cost you $1 billion?"
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Bush Thrilled Over Less Than Expected Job Numbers


Why shouldn't George Bush be happy? The latest job figures show him on track for the best year of his presidency. Unfortunately for him, his BEST year is weaker than Bill Clinton's WORST year. The LA Times reports Kerry smartly putting it in perspective.

"Kerry, in a statement issued before his first campaign event today looked back at the overall loss of jobs across Bush's tenure, and said: 'President Bush is now certain to be the first president since the Great Depression to face re-election without creating a single job.

'"Since Herbert Hoover we have had eleven presidents: Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton. These presidents have faced wars and recessions, but not one of them has failed to create a single job,' Kerry said."

Kerry is starting to come out swinging strong on every issue. About time.
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Austrian historians blast Arnie


I've been hearing lots of criticisms of "facts" in Schwarzeneggers speech but now Austrian historians are speaking up. What's with those guys and facts?
"It's a fact -- as a child he could not have seen a Soviet tank in Styria," the southeastern province where Schwarzenegger was born and raised, historian
Stefan Karner told the Vienna newspaper Kurier.

The Soviets already had left Styria in July 1945, less than three months after the end of the war, Karner noted. [Chris' note: Arnie wasn't born until 1947]
And the "socialist" comment. Well, maybe his vision was clouded by the times.
What's more, when Schwarzenegger left in 1968, Austria was run by a conservative government headed by People's Party Chancellor Josef Klaus, a staunch Roman Catholic and a sharp critic of both the Socialists as well as the Communists ruling in countries across the Iron Curtain.

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Bush & Rove praise Zell, Mrs. Bush and McCain criticize Zell - which one is it?


The White House is on spin overdrive over the growing Zell Miller fiasco. In today's USA Today, Karl Rover praises Miller's speech, saying:
The fact that he is angry as a Democrat about what has happened in the Democratic Party and he is upset with the views and votes and statements of fellow Democrat senators gives his speech enormous credibility and makes it a very persuasive case for this president.
So, according to Rove, Zell is angry and that anger makes a persuasive case for the president. But wait a minute. In the same edition of USA Today, we find out that:
Bush campaign spokesman Steve Schmidt rejected claims the convention had an angry tone.
So Rove says Miller was angry and the Bush campaign says Miller wasn't angry. Rove also praises Miller's speech as making "a persuasive case," but then John McCain turns around and says Miller's speech was even worse than Buchanan's in 1992:
"'I think it backfires,' McCain said, his face a picture of genuine astonishment. 'It makes [Pat] Buchanan's speech in Houston look like milquetoast.' "
Laura Bush's seems to echo McCain's criticism of Miller's substance:
First lady Laura Bush, in an interview with NBC's Tom Brokaw, responded coolly when asked whether she and the president agreed with what Miller said. "I don't know that we share that point of view."
So Mrs. Bush doesn't agree at all with the case Miller's speech laid out. But Mr. Bush praises Zell Miller as a "discerning Democrat" even after the speech. What's more, while Mrs. Bush clearly wanted to distance herself from the substance of the speech, the Bush campaign seems to be endorsing the substance and only distancing themselves from the tone and presentation:
"Everyone read the speech in advance and approved it," said one prominent GOP lobbyist working closely with the Bush-Cheney campaign on the staging and message for the convention. The problem, he added, was that handlers did not account for the shouting voice or glowering stare with which the 72-year-old former Marine delivered his speech, or the short-tempered manner he displayed in interviews once the veracity of his charges began being challenged minutes after he left the podium.
But then Bush chief of staff Andy Card says he apparently has no reservations at all about the speech, it was an unbridled success:
"Putting Zell Miller on was not a mistake. He was reaching people we might not be able to reach otherwise. I was told Zell Miller was off the charts positive," said White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card.
So now, I'm totally confused. Bush embraces Miller. Mrs. Bush distances herself from Miller, saying she disagrees with Miller's substance. Karl Rove embraces Miller. McCain says Miller was a total disaster. The Bush campaign says it agrees with Miller's substance but disagrees with his presentation style. And perhaps most importantly, the White House UNINVITES Miller and his wife from the president's box seats at last night's acceptance speech, right after the president praises him and the First Lady trashes him.

So which one is it, Mr. President? Do you agree with your wife, your top strategist, John McCain, Andy Card, or your campaign? Was the speech a success or a disaster? In this case, Bush isn't just trying to have it both ways, he's trying to have it 5 ways. Now who's the flip-flopper? Read More......

Clinton to Undergo Bypass Surgery


Maybe the hypocrisy of the Republican Convention put him over the edge. According to Reuters:
Former President Bill Clinton has checked into a New York hospital and will undergo heart bypass surgery, television networks reported on Friday.

ABC and CBS television reported that Clinton, 58, had checked into New York Presbyterian Hospital for quadruple heart bypass surgery.

Or maybe that he's the one that gave Zell his position in 1992. Read More......

Poll Analysis


I'm going to go out on a limb, but I don't anticipate Bush getting much more than 3-5 points out of this convention. Why? Look at the latest national poll from the LA Times - August 26th (212k PDF):
(ASKED OF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS)
Q9. Do you think George W. Bush deserves to be reelected to a second term as president, or not?

Deserves to be reelected 47%
Does not deserve to be reelected 49%

Q24. Generally speaking, do you think the country is better off because of George W. Bush's policies and should proceed in the direction he set out, or do you think the country is not better off and needs to move in a new direction?

Continue policies of George W. Bush 43%
Needs a new direction 54%
Don?t know 3%

Q43. Do you think George W. Bush has laid out a clear plan for how he would accelerate economic growth and create more jobs, or not?

Yes 36%
No 53%
Don?t know 11%

(While the poll is from the 26th, not much new about the economy came out of the convention.)

Q46. Would you say the country is better off because of George W. Bush's economic policies than when he became president more than three years ago, or worse off, or is the country about the same as it was then?

Better (Net) 27%
Worse (Net) 45%
About the same 26%
Don?t know 2%
While the poll is a week old, it shows that in the underlying fundamental issues - do you want this guy in office or not - Bush is below 50% on everything. People who said a week ago that the nation was worse off economically aren't going to change their mind that quickly. So this week, instead of 54% saying the country is going in the wrong direction, maybe it will be 49% or 51%. That's still EXTREMELY high.

I have stated before, this will be an election decided on turnout. The nation is evenly divided and the convention did nothing but polarize the electorate more. Read More......

Bush Bounce a Bust


Bush got a pitiful 3 point bounce out of the convention, initial polling shows. Pitiful. I'd almost call that the bounce of a girlie-man. Read More......

Thank god for TiVo!


Okay, time for a shameless plug here. I'm sitting in front of my TiVo and watching John Stewart's coverage from last night. Mind you, Bush ran over, and I was watching it live. So while I was watching Bush live, my TiVo was taping John Stewart. TiVo is amazing, it will change the way you think about TV completely. You will never have to watch a Swift Boat ad again. Or you can watch the latest John Stewart skewer Bush over and over again. :)

UPDATE: If you can get a copy of last night's Daily Show, WATCH IT. My favorite quote so far. In reference to Miller challenging Hardball's Chris Matthews to a duel:
"That's Democratic Georgia Senator Zell Miller, building that bridge to the 18th Century."
Now TiVo, please make it so people can send shows to one another. Can you imagine if you could send all your friends a copy of the Daily Show? That would be amazing.

UPDATE 2: John McCain on the Repulican Convention and Miller's speech:
It was certainly an interesting event, I've got to say. How's that for a cop out, huh?
He didn't look all that comfortable saying that, either. Read More......

One Question For Dick Cheney


Mr. Vice President, why are you ashamed of your daughter?
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Bush says Zell Miller is a "Discerning Democrat"


Bush in Pennsylvania this morning called Zell Miller a "discerning Democrat" and told the audience to help bring other "discerning" Democrats to the polls. Since he doesn't read the newspaper, maybe Bush missed John McCain in the Washington Post:
"I think [Miller's speech] backfires," McCain said, his face a picture of genuine astonishment. "It makes [Pat] Buchanan's speech in Houston look like milquetoast."
Someone needs to tell McCain that he's starting to act like an abused spouse. What did he THINK Bush was going to do in this election, anything different from South Carolina in 2000? Read More......

Jobless rate -- behind the numbers


The bushies are about to do a victory lap on the unemployment numbers that just came out -- down to 5.4 percent. But a quick glance of the report shows that this month's numbers would be subject to ridicule in the previous administration.

144,000 new jobs nationwide is barely enough to keep up with population increases. The only reason the unemployment rate went down is people actually stopped looking for work and are no longer considered part of the labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics looks at "total employment" and acknowledges there was no change in this number. So the only way the rate of employment changes is the labor market actually shrinks. It's that kind of despair that the gop will spin to make them look good. They've managed to lower expectations so much that break-even job numbers are proof of "turning the corner."

A non-partisan economist worth his or her salt will tell you these numbers are anemic at best. This is shaping up to be the "best" year of the bush administration in terms of creating jobs. It would be the worst year in the clinton administration.

John Kerry is right -- we can do better. In fact, we did better on a regular basis under Clinton.
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Kerry: "Letting the Saudi royal family control our energy costs makes you unfit to lead this nation."


If anyone wondered whether Kerry would come out fighting, this remark from Kerry late last night tells us what we are going to see in the next sixty days. The GOP has been riding the "Kerry will let Paris decide what's best for America" line for a while but I think that a lot of Americans are going to connect with the Saudi link. That line sums pulls together the high gas prices at the pump, the war in Iraq, and the sleazy big oil connections of this administration. This is right out of the Karl Rove book and I think it's going to stick.

Right after the Saudi line comes this:
Handing out billions [in] government contracts without a bid to Halliburton while you're still on their payroll makes you unfit.
The gloves most definitely are off.
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The "Won't Get Fooled Again" Editorials & where was the economy?


I haven't yet watched the speech (one hour of watching Bushie, ugh) but from going over the text of his speech, I was alarmed not to see talk of a strong economy. He has really flogged the story that tax cuts have brought on an economic rebound but he was not saying much last night. The new unemployment numbers are out this morning and the consensus is around 150,000 new jobs but all of the predictions have been way off for the last few months. With the late afternoon buying spree on Wall Street I thought that maybe there were rumors of a positive report. The fact that Bush did not address the subject (he had those reports prior to his speech) tells me that they might still be lagging. It would be very surprising if Bush missed an opportunity to brag about a rebounding economy in such a high profile speech.

Meanwhile, the editorial pages are all voicing their opinions and it wasn't received as a home run from what I've read so far. Looks like a spine is developing in the press.
The president needs to speak to the large number of moderate voters who feel that things have been going in the wrong direction over the last four years, and convince them that he has the capacity to learn from mistakes and do better. On that count, his acceptance speech fell short. - NY Times

FOR ANYONE WHO hadn't been paying attention the past 3 1/2 years, President Bush's speech last night presented a robust defense of his first term and a forceful case for giving him a second.

The chief difficulty with Mr. Bush's speech wasn't so much what he put in,
but what he left out: the missteps and difficulties that have marred his first term and will make many of the goals he cited difficult to obtain. - Washington Post

FEW WOULD doubt President Bush's intention to stay the course in a second term. When he said, "We are on the path to the future -- and we are not turning back," the determination in his voice was convincing. What is at issue, however, is not his resolve but the path itself. - Boston Globe

"I am running for president with a clear and positive plan to build a safer world and a more hopeful America," President Bush said Thursday night. His well-written speech would have been more convincing if he had not actually been president for the last four years. - LA Times

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Mary Cheney's sad "Fuck You"


So Mary Cheney not only didn't appear on stage tonight after the president spoke, even though her entire family DID appear, but according to the New York Times SHE WASN'T EVEN SITTING IN HER FATHER'S BOX DURING BUSH'S SPEECH. Presumably, that means Mary didn't even attend Bush's speech at all.

It's possible Mary's in a hospital bed somewhere suffering from some tropical disease, and that's why she couldn't make it to the president's BIG address, but then we'd probably have heard about it by now. More plausibly, knowing Mary, at least knowing how her friends have described her, her very hot little temper probably got all pissed off that the press has been incessantly asking why she attended her father's speech last night with her lover but then REFUSED to go on stage with her family after dad's speech. Mary's response to such questions? To give a big "fuck you" to America by not attending at all tonight. That way she doesn't have to decide whether or not to go on stage, nor does she need to decide whether to bring her lover with her or hide her in the nose-bleed seats. If you're not in the audience, you don't need to decide.

Of course, what Mary fails to realize is that it begs even more questions now that the vice president's lesbian daughter, who also happens to be running his vice presidential election campaign, doesn't even deign to show up for the president's BIG speech. That's just bizarre. It's the kind of thing that would get you fired if you weren't the VP's kid. The only reason Mary didn't show is because Mary's a dyke and the GOP hates dykes. Rather than stand proudly with her father, alongside the bigoted presidential candidate she's working hard to re-elect, she goes into hiding, afraid to face to the consequences of her own increasingly bad choices. Read More......

Of note...


Just an observation, but in the swing state of Florida:
About 2.5 million residents were told to clear out ahead of what could be the most powerful storm to hit Florida in a decade. Other people in the 300-mile stretch covered by the hurricane warning rushed to fortify their homes with plywood and storm shutters, and buy water, gas and canned food.
Those 2.5 million people, in counties like Miami-Dade, were probably not watching the President last night. Don't expect the polls to change too much in Florida. Read More......

First Chat a Success


Americablog had its first chat tonight while watching Bush and then Kerry. Some called it a group therapy session, others thought it was a good place to be - because watching a scary movie alone is even SCARIER. We'll think about doing one for the debates.
-- Rob in Baltimore Read More......

Bush lauds massive voter fraud in Afghanistan, AGAIN


In Bush's acceptance speech, he AGAIN lauded Afghanistan for registering more people to vote than are actually ELIGIBLE to vote in Afghanistan. In Bush's speech he said:
"In Afghanistan, terrorists have done everything they can to intimidate people - yet more than 10 million citizens have registered to vote in the October presidential election-a resounding endorsement of democracy."
As Chris in Paris noted earlier, Bush is right - around 10.35 million people HAVE registered to vote, and more are registering each day, in a country where only 9.8 million are ELIGIBLE to vote.

As Matthew Yglesias rightly notes, that's not an endorsement of democracy, it's an endorsement of voter fraud. But I guess we shouldn't expect a man who won by voter fraud to actually criticize it, or in Bush's case, to even understand that it's wrong. Read More......

McCain says Zell Miller's speech WORSE than Buchanan's in 92


"'I think it backfires,' McCain said, his face a picture of genuine astonishment. 'It makes [Pat] Buchanan's speech in Houston look like milquetoast.' " - Washington Post

THIS is bad. If John McCain is saying that this speech was worse than Buchanan's 1992 screed against gays and others that pretty much killed George Bush senior's chance at re-election, then this is VERY bad for the Bushies. It speaks volumes about why Bush has now dumped Zell faster than a cheap hooker. I wouldn't be surprised if McCain called Bush up and said "dump Zell now, or I'm gone."

If we don't EMBRACE Zell Miller and make him the talk of the town every day for the rest of this election, then we are fools. John McCain says the guy is worse than Pat Buchanan. John McCain compares the 2004 GOP Convention to 1992. There's your 527 ad right there. Read More......