Initial blog reaction to Hillary's victory

Markos:

Hillary Clinton just showed everyone who had called this thing for Obama that, in fact, there's a much longer race in store.

How exciting! No coronation this year. The candidates are going to have to earn their victory the old fashioned way -- one vote at a time.

Josh:

Even if Hillary doesn't win this thing, if she loses by only a percentage point or two, she'll have plenty of claim to a political comeback. More than enough to hearten her supporters and calm any sense that she's getting run out of this race on a rail.

We could be looking at a situation in which the first two contests on both sides -- the ones that usually tell the tale -- have settled very little.

Chris:

Wow. Everyone has now called New Hampshire for Clinton. Shocking, stunning, amazing that she could overcome an 8% deficit in the polls in just one day. The huge turnout among Democratic women did the trick, as did her ability to stay even with Obama among the massive liberal vote. Over the last twenty-four hours, there were media character assassination attempts against Clinton because she showed emotion, or something. That simply must have been what put Obama over the top. Seriously--nothing else really happened in the last twenty-four hours, so that must be the cause. Looks like that attempt to take Clinton down completely backfired.

Jeralyn & Company:

[Obama] can thank the media for its trashing of Hillary Clinton. There must have been a huge backlash -- or else the pollsters don't know what they are doing....

She did it. Amazing!

The importance of tonight's win can not be understated. It was a revolt of women sick and tired of the likes of Chris Tweety Matthews and the Media Misogynists.

Barack Obama did not lose New Hampshire. The Media did. Their misogynist hatred of Hillary Clinton was soundly rejected by the voters. Especially the women voters of New Hampshire.

How the Media will react to this well deserved rebuke is the question. And let's be clear, Chris Matthews should be removed from covering this race. His offensive behavior is a disgrace to NBC.

Taegan:

Clinton should come out and give her victory speech because she's a winner no matter how the final vote count ends up.

It's been an amazing night that almost no one predicted....

Were today's stories about an impending shake up in the Clinton campaign planted to lay the groundwork for a Clinton comeback story? If so, it was an absolutely brilliant move.

Why were nearly all polls over the last five days wrong about Obama's growing lead? For what it's worth, we now know that the exit polls showed Clinton and Obama tied at 39% each, with Edwards at 16%.

Did Clinton's "emotional moment" yesterday really make a difference? Unlike in Iowa, Clinton beat Obama among NH women by double-digits.

With Obama's victory seemingly a lock, did independents vote for McCain instead?

Read More......

CNN, AP, NBC call New Hampshire for Hillary

UPDATE: I'm going to stop posting returns, since it's over. You can check the latest numbers on CNN's Web site here.

UPDATE: Watching Obama's speech. My God he's good.

Wow. What the hell happened? The Des Moines Register poll called it exactly in Iowa. Yet, most of the polls going into New Hampshire grossly over-estimated Obama's lead. Or, were the polls right but something happened in the past 24 hours to cut Obama's lead and add to Hillary's? The tear? The black thing? Or are polls simply no longer relevant in an age of cell phones? And perhaps the biggest lesson of the evening is that we cannot afford to be cocky heading into the general election, even if the polls say that we're going to cream them in November.

75% Reporting - Clinton ahead by 6580
Clinton 39%
Obama 36%
Edwards 17%
Richardson 5%
Kucinich 2%
Biden 0%
Gravel 0%
Dodd 0% Read More......

New Hampshire Results - Hillary holding the lead (anyone else feel like Florida?)

65% Reporting - Clinton ahead by 5092
Clinton 39%
Obama 36%
Edwards 17%

UPDATE: 10:27PM. Hotline reports that the exit polls today showed a 39%-39% tie between Hillary and Obama.

UPDATE: 10:00 PM. Joe and I were discussing this, and a reader wrote in with the same analysis: If Hillary wins this, first, it's a huge victory for her. But. And the but is important. The debate will be as to how Obama had a double-digit lead coming into today and suddenly lost in a matter of hours? We suspect there will be two schools of thought - either Hillary won because New Hampshire is racist, or she won because she cried. Either way, not a great message. Having said that, if she wins, she wins, and it's a win she desperately needed, so it's still a good thing.

All polling places are closed. McCain wins the Republican race. Still too close to call on the Democratic side. Univ of NH and Dartmouth have yet to report in. Being university areas, Obama could do well.

New Hampshire Primary -- Republican
President - GOP Primary
New Hampshire - 61 of 301 Precincts Reporting - 20%
Name Party Votes Vote %
McCain , John GOP 13,347 37%
Romney , Mitt GOP 9,985 28%
Huckabee , Mike GOP 4,362 12%
Giuliani , Rudy GOP 3,280 9%
Paul , Ron GOP 3,074 9%
Total Write-ins GOP 878 2%
Thompson , Fred GOP 487 1%
Hunter , Duncan GOP 206 1%
Keyes , Alan GOP 30 0%
Marchuk , Stephen GOP 18 0%
Tancredo , Tom GOP 12 0% Read More......

Initial exit polls from NH - same percentage of independents as in 2000

From Chris Cillizza at the Post:

State election officials predicted a record turnout of 500,000, as warm temperatures and extraordinary interest in the campaign appears to be driving voters to the polls. But independent voters, who were widely seen as the not-so-secret weapons of Obama and McCain, do not appear to make up any greater proportion of Granite State voters than they did in 2000 when both parties held contested presidential primaries, according to early exit polling.

As in last week's Iowa caucuses, Democrats are citing "change" as the most important trait in selecting their candidate in today's presidential primary, while Republicans are choosing leadership and personal qualities narrowly over specific issue stances when picking their candidate.

Unlike Iowa, however, early exit polling suggests that the Democratic electorate is neither considerably younger nor populated with more first-time primary voters than it was four years ago.

Dissatisfaction with the Bush Administration runs strongly through both party primaries, a further symbol of the seeming change nature of these elections. More than six in 10 Democrats pronounced themselves "angry" at President Bush's policies while more than half of Republican described themselves as either dissatisfied or angry.

Read More......

Twittering away the elections

Some of my new Spanish blogger friends (well, new friends, they've been Spanish and bloggers a while), are using the Twitter site, software, technology, whatever to follow the US primary results. I've seen Twitter in action and it bewilders me a bit. I'm not even going to try to explain how it works, I'm hoping one of you, our intrepid readers, will explain Twitter to the rest of us in the comments, and then I can link to your comment(s) from this. Anyway, my friend César Calderón explains on his blog (in Spanish, but a bad translation using Google is here) a little about how he and his friends used Twitter to follow and share the results in Iowa, and again are using it tonight to follow New Hampshire. Way over my head - I think they're simply sending results to each other's cell phones via text, not sure - but fascinating stuff. Okay, I just emailed César to ask what they're sending back and forth, and got this response: "Polls, comments, sharing links to interesting pages, chatting, fighting again Republicans.... and of course, live blogging." So, pretty much the little tidbits we'd all share amongst ourselves in the comments, they share by text. Read More......

Understanding the appeal

As I've said before, I'm tremendously excited about the prospects of any one of the Democratic big three becoming president. I think all three, though they have significant stylistic differences, could and would be excellent leaders. The struggle to pick a favorite candidate, for me and for many people I know, has largely been one of attempting to determine which candidate has the *best* combination of goals and ability to implement them.

Obviously, though, Senator Barack Obama has transcended that kind of analysis for millions of people. And after I (finally) began actually watching him in action recently, rather than reading the transcripts and the news reports and the interviews, it's not hard to see why. Continued after the jump.

For so many people, and this is crucially true for young voters, the question was, which candidate -- if any -- will best represent our goals. But no politician, perhaps since Bill in 1992, was one of us. For young people, the awkward and aloof styles of Kerry and Gore were not something to get excited about. Dems vote for Dems, sure, and electability was a big issue and all of that . . . but there wasn't any excitement; they were FOR us, not OF us.

When people describe candidates as being "normal" or "down to earth", it's actually a much greater compliment than it sounds. To have someone represent what you'd want to have done is nice, but for an elected official -- a politician! -- to give you the sense that he's a part of what you're part of, well, that's something special. For a 46 year old black man to give so many people that sense is nothing short of amazing. And it's revolutionizing this campaign.

That element isn't a make or break factor in my vote, and if I didn't think he was a committed progressive, charisma wouldn't matter at all. But for many, it's enough . . . and I can understand why. Read More......

Hillary's supporters may set up anti-Obama 527

Huff Post reports that Hillary allies may dump millions into an anti-Obama 527:

[S]ome top independent expenditure groups supporting Clinton have been exploring the creation of an anti-Obama "527 committee" that would take unlimited contributions from a few of Clinton's super-rich backers and from a handful of unions to finance television ads and direct mail designed to tarnish the Illinois Senator's image.

That sounds an awful lot like the Swift Boat model. And while everyone expects, and hopes, that the Dems will use 527s this year just as adeptly as the Republicans did in 2004 against John Kerry, I'm not so sure we want to see Democrats using them against fellow Democrats, especially when the end result could be a damaged candidate in the general election.

Also interesting in the Huff Post story, Hillary may be giving up on South Carolina and Nevada in order to focus on Super Tuesday.

A panicked and cash-short Clinton campaign is seriously considering giving up on the Nevada caucuses and on the South Carolina primary in order to regroup and to save resources for the massive 19-state mega-primary on February 5.

Absolutely fascinating turn of events. Read More......

Have you been paying your mortgage on time? Sucker.

Looking to buy your first home, but you waited because prices were just a bit too high? Or did you buy a home and have been diligently paying your mortgage on time?

Well screw you, courtesy of the Bush administration.

The Bush administration is now talking about expanding their little mortgage bail out to people with prime loans too. That means pretty much everyone who simply gambled and lost or just didn't want to pay their bills on time. And what's worse, it means people who pay a lot less than you for the same mortgage will get to keep that sweet little deal for the next five years, courtesy of the Bush administration, simply because they didn't pay their bills on time and you did. Yes, they not only pay less than you each month for the same freaking mortgage, but because they didn't pay their bills on time, they get to keep paying less than you for years to come. Had they paid their bills on time, or simply not gambled, their mortgage payment would now be in line with yours, or even higher. But why not reward stupidity? We've been doing it for 7 years!

After the jump, how Bush is planning to make your next home purchase more expensive!

Or, take cases like mine, where I haven't bought my first home because prices were too high and I didn't want to speculate or overstretch my budget. People like me thought we'd wait until prices came down a bit. Well surprise! The Bush administration is talking about artificially keeping those prices up so you can pay another ten, fifty, 100 thousand or more for that first condo or home. You see, the market was finally self-correcting, moving back in the direction of normal price levels. But our politicians can't stomach letting the free market do its work and holding people responsible for their lifestyle choices. So, yet again, we get a federal bail-out that helps everyone but you and me. In fact, it doesn't just not help us, it hurts us because these mortgage bail-out plans guarantee that the next home we buy will now be more expensive than it would have been. Prices were coming down, now they won't. And just guess how this little bail-out is going to affect the price of YOUR new mortgage? Think even more expensive. All because you were neither greedy nor an idiot.

So where's my bail-out now that the Bush administration has just put a virtual tax on my first condo? Where's my check for $50,000 to help pay for the inflated prices they're socking the rest of us with? Don't expect any help any time soon. Those of us in the middle, neither rich nor poor, never get any help from either party. We're just expected to pay to help everybody else, over and over again. And they wonder why much of the American public is fed up with both parties. Read More......

Tornadoes in January

But there's no such thing as global warming. Can't wait for it to hit 73F today in DC (seriously). Read More......

If Hillary loses big in NH, some Senate colleagues may endorse Obama

From the Wall Street Journal news section, not editorial, which up until now has been known for fair and impartial news reporting. With Rupert Murdoch taking over, it's anyone's guess if we can trust the WSJ anymore. But at this point, I think we can.

Whether this actually happens, and on-the-fence Senators openly endorse Obama, the very fact that Hillary isn't doing as well as expected, and is outright losing the first few primaries, only feeds these kind of stories and defections, which only feeds more of the same. This is why, like it or not, the first few primaries matter.

Already some Clinton associates have begun lobbying for her early exit if she loses the primary by a big margin, as polls suggest she could. Several Senate colleagues who have sat on the fence are now in talks with Obama advisers about endorsing the freshman Illinois senator over his more experienced colleague.

Read More......

NH turnout "absolutely huge," supplies of Democratic ballots are "running low"

So here's a major tidbit about turnout. MSNBC just reported that "the NH Secretary of State's office is in the process of locating extra ballots to ship to towns that expressed concerns that supplies are running low. Concern is primarily on the Democratic side."

It's only 1:00 PM and towns are already worried about running low on ballots. Wow.

ABC has a report that turnout is "absolutely huge":

ABC News' Karen Travers Reports: New Hampshire Deputy Secretary of State Dave Scanlan told ABC News that turnout among primary voters today is "absolutely huge" -- and there are concerns about running out of ballots in towns like Portsmouth, Keene, Hudson and Pelham.

"Turnout is absolutely huge and towns are starting to get concerned that they may not have enough ballots," Scanlan said. "We are working on those issues. Everything else seems to be going smoothly."

After the jump, even Republican strongholds are running low on Dem ballots - meaning, independents are breaking to the Dems (and likely Obama).

Scanlan said that the Secretary of State's office is sending additional ballots to Portsmouth and Keene (traditionally Democratic strongholds), Hudson (Republican leaning with significant numbers of independents) and Pelham (large number of independents).

According to Scanlan, the ballot strain seems to be on Democratic ballots, which suggests that the undeclared voters are breaking for the Democratic primary.

Read More......

It's confirmed (kind of) - Carville is joining Team Hillary

Ben Smith got the kind-of confirmation. No word yet on Begala. Read More......

Are independents breaking for Obama in NH?

Got an email from AMERICAblog reader CS in New Hampshire:

All at Americablog,

My wife and I are NH residents and registered independents (or undeclared as the state calls it) and went to vote at 7am in Nashua. There was no line per-say, but there was a lot of activity. People going in and out...exit pollster (complete with media logos) handing out clipboards with surveys...Obama and Hillary supporters with signs at the school parking lot entrance. There were lots of Edwards signs out on the street. The only evidence of republicans was a single Ron Paul sign across the street.

When I want to pick up my ballot, I saw a lot of names in the book with "UND" crossed out and "DEM" written in its place. Anecdotally, this indicated a lot of independents breaking for the dems, probably for Obama. McCain just held a big rally here yesterday, but there was no evidence of it now.

Just thought you might want this piece of info.

CS

Joe has already noted that both Obama and McCain are counting on independents. If more independents move to Obama then they won't be able to vote for McCain, which could hurt his chances. That's why this is important. Read More......

Excellent election summary from AP

The Associated Press just wrote an excellent summary of where things stand in the presidential elections. A few key excerpts:

HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON: Exhausted and frustrated by a campaign gone suddenly wrong.

BARACK OBAMA: Obama told reporters Monday that he hopes Feb. 5 will effectively decide the race in his favor.

"The February 5 states, we want to win all the states. And then after that, hopefully I have enough delegates that I win the nomination and I go to the convention."

With Iowa in his pocket and New Hampshire apparently next, he's taken big steps in that direction.

JOHN EDWARDS: Yet Iowa, where Edwards edged Clinton for second place in the party caucuses, was always considered a better state for him than New Hampshire. Edwards' aides braced themselves for a likely third-place finish here Tuesday.

Their hope is that Obama beats Clinton soundly enough to mortally wound her campaign. Under that scenario, which some might consider wishful thinking, Edwards would survive at least through the spring.

After the jump, McCain, Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani.

JOHN MCCAIN: The Arizona senator's candidacy hangs in the balance in New Hampshire.... A loss would essentially end his bid, making it impossible to raise money. A win would be a stunning comeback.

MITT ROMNEY: He got a shock last week in Iowa, but now Romney's found the groove he thinks can win him the nomination — regardless of whether he comes in first or second in New Hampshire.

MIKE HUCKABEE: While Huckabee does not expect to do better than third in New Hampshire, he believes his chances are strong in South Carolina, where, like Iowa, Christian conservatives dominate Republican primary votes. Support from evangelicals pushed Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, to victory in Iowa.

RUDY GIULIANI: The former New York mayor visited a diner and held a series of town hall meetings on Monday in New Hampshire, a state where he once challenged Romney's lead in polls.

But Giuliani is not expected to do well Tuesday. Polls indicate he may come in fourth behind McCain, Romney and Huckabee — or even lower — after coming in sixth in Iowa last week.

Read More......

24 hours to New Hampshire

NOTE FROM JOHN: I'm bumping this post because it went up at the end of the day yesterday and some may have missed it. Joe gives a really good analysis of where things stand in the election, what to look for today in New Hampshire, and what today's results mean for the various campaigns. It's a podcast (basically a radio show), 20 minutes long, and you can listen to it on your computer by clicking the link below (assuming you have speakers or a headset).

Joe and I just recorded a 20 minute podcast discussing what tomorrow's primary in New Hampshire means for the Dems and the Republicans, and especially Hillary and Obama. You can listen to the podcast by clicking here. For those who don't know, a podcast is really just a radio show. Click the link and your computer should play it automatically, assuming you have speakers and your volume is turned up.

As always, you can subscribe to the AMERICAblog podcast via iTunes here, or you can subscribe to the podcast's RSS feed here. And you can listen to any of our old shows via either of the two links in the preceding sentence. Read More......

Will Hillary hire Begala and Carville to save her campaign?

Chuck Todd, NBC's political director and the former head of the Hotline (a big inside-the-beltway publication), just wondered on MSNBC whether Hillary might hire James Carville and Paul Begala in a last effort to salvage her campaign. You'll recall that Carville and Begala were the two gurus who helped Bill Clinton win in 1992.

In Todd's scenario, Hillary's campaign would chuck their top guy, Mark Penn, and hire Carville and Begala to not only truly help the campaign win, but also to feed the story that she's now on the "comeback" trail, making bold moves to win, etc. And that's not a bad idea at this point. But, it has its risks. Any big shakeup in the Clinton camp will confirm that Hillary is worried and feed stories about a campaign in turmoil. The alternative, however, is to do nothing, risk not turning the campaign around, and lose.

Here is what Todd said:

"You could almost picture the way that they could create this comeback story. They throw Mark Penn to the wolves and they bring back Carville and Begala. Begala takes over the day-to-day."

Read More......

Final Reuters/Zogby tracking poll finds solid leads for Obama and McCain

In Iowa, the Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby poll proved to be quite accurate. They've been doing daily tracking polls for New Hampshire and the final numbers show Obama with a big lead and McCain up by nine over Romney:

Democrat Barack Obama expanded his lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire to 13 points as voting began in the state's critical presidential primary, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.

Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona also widened his advantage over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, taking a 36 percent to 27 percent edge after months of hard campaigning in the state.

Throughout the day, we'll hear anecdotes about turnout. One key piece of information to look for is how the independents are voting. In NH, independents can vote in either primary. If we hear that independents are voting Democratic, that bodes well for Obama -- and could be bad news for McCain. More after the break.

So, perhaps Clinton's pollster Mark Penn now sees the bounce he claimed didn't exist on Saturday:

Obama continued to feed on the momentum from his performance in Iowa last week, when he and Republican Mike Huckabee scored breakthrough wins that left Clinton and Romney reeling.

Obama, a senator from Illinois bidding to make history as the first black U.S. president, led the one-time Democratic front-runner 42 percent to 29 percent. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards was third with 17 percent.

"Obama is still on a roll and not slowing down. He had another big day," pollster John Zogby said.

Zogby was probably the most accurate pollster in the 2000 presidential election. He fell out of favor after the 2004 election when he predicted a Kerry victory late in the afternoon of election day. Ugh, I remember so well reading that announcement. He did well in Iowa, we'll soon know how accurate he was in NH..
Read More......

Tuesday Morning Open Thread

It's primary day in NH. The polls are open. We'll be getting tidbits of information throughout the day on turnout -- not sure if we'll see exit polls. But as the day wears on, we'll start getting a sense of what's happening. The GOP race could end up being very, very close between Romney and McCain.

So, should be an interesting day to say the least. This was also supposed to be election day in Pakistan.

Get it started and keep it going. Read More......

Paulson on collapsing economy: let them eat cake

I realize that an imploding middle class doesn't register for the likes of Paulson, former chief of Goldman Sachs, or the GOP Big Oil and Wall Street special interests, but it certainly impacts everyone else. Maybe, just maybe, Paulson and Bush were pushed back by Democrats in Congress who balked at the idea of more tax cuts for the wealthy.

The Gavel has a brilliant collection of quotes about the economy from Team Bush and stacks them up against real experts in the field. The Bush bunker lives another day! When they only listen to their friends at Goldman Sachs or Big Oil, it's no wonder Bush and Paulson fail to see the need for action. There's plenty of cake out there to eat, isn't there? Read More......

What happened to the US right wing media support for Sarko?

Just weeks ago, the right wing media couldn't stop talking about Sarkozy. Yes, even the GOP presidential candidates all chimed in, talking about how Sarkozy was moving France in the direction of the US. Hmm. It's true, Sarkozy would fit in well with the religious right in America and the GOP presidential candidates. He's about to leap into his third marriage so indeed, he would fit in well with the GOP crowd.

Last summer, Sarkozy was enjoying support in the mid 60's though a more recent poll has him down to 48%. The circus-like atmosphere of his love life being played out in the tabloid media might be tolerated if there were results. The problem is, the big agenda has been put aside and replaced with The Sarko Show. The only real change is that now, like in America, every personal detail of the president is openly displayed in the press. The theater, like in America, is often just what they want people to see and believe. (Remember Bush, the CEO president?) Without a quick turnaround and serious focus, he's going to be as ineffective as Chirac. The Socialists - left for dead only months ago - could not have asked for anything better. Read More......

The first NH votes are in

Dixville Notch, a tiny little town in the far northern reaches of New Hampshire, always casts the first votes in that state. It's a hallowed tradition in the Granite State for some reason. And, tonight the voters of Dixville Notch have spoken for Barack Obama and John McCain. From the Primary Monitor:

Dixville Notch got the voting under way. The results:

* John McCain 4 votes
* Mitt Romney 2 votes
* Rudy Giuliani 1 vote

* Barack Obama 7 votes
* John Edwards 2 votes
* Bill Richardson 1 vote

Thanks to JA for the heads up on the results. Read More......