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October 25, 2010
The latest
Gallup poll finds Republicans remain in position to win control of the House of Representatives in next week's midterm elections.
Republicans lead Democrats, 48% to 44%, among registered voters. They hold a 52% to 43% margin among likely voters in a high-turnout scenario, and a 55% to 41% margin in a low-turnout scenario. These likely voter advantages for the Republicans are slightly smaller than in previous weeks, reflecting in particular increased Democratic strength over the most recent days of interviewing.
A new
Magellan Strategies poll in Louisiana shows Sen. David Vitter (R) with a comfortable lead over challenger Charlie Melancon (D), 52% to 35%.
A Democratic poll last week suggested the race
had tightened considerably.
Proving he thinks he has a solid lead in California's race for governor, Jerry Brown (D) unveils an amazingly effective
positive advertisement.
See more...
A new
Public Policy Polling survey in West Virginia shows Gov. Joe Manchin (D) leading John Raese (R) for U.S. Senate by six points, 50% to 44%.
Manchin led by just three points in a similar survey two weeks ago and trailed by three points in a late September survey.
Key finding: "The incredible dichotomy between how voters in West Virginia feel about Manchin and Obama continues as the election draws near. Manchin is the most popular politician PPP has polled on anywhere in the country this year, with 69% of voters approving of his job performance to only 23% disapproving. The state simultaneously gives Obama his worst reviews of any state where PPP has conducted a survey this year, with 65% of voters disapproving of him and only 31% approving."
A new
Honolulu Star Advertiser Hawaii Poll shows Neil Abercrombie (D) leading Duke Aiona (R) in the race for governor, 51% to 43%.
Aiona insists his own internal polling showed a dead heat in the race.
A new
SurveyUSA poll in Georgia finds Nathan Deal (R) leading former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) in the race for governor, 49% to 39%, with Libertarian John Monds at 8%.
It's conceivable that Monds could potentially keep Deal at just under the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff.
"Everything was going great and all of a sudden secret money from God knows where -- because they won't disclose it -- is pouring in."
-- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), quoted by
Politico.
A new
Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado finds Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and challenger Ken Buck (R) are each getting support from 47% of voters in the state.
"Bennet's hanging in there pretty well given his status as an unpopular incumbent. At 51%, a majority of voters in the state disapprove of the job he's done since being appointed last year to only 40% who approve of him. Usually you'd be dead in the water with those kinds of numbers as an incumbent but he lucked out when Republicans nominated an unappealing candidate of their own. 49% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Ken Buck to only 44% who see him favorably."
A new
Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado confirms what others have found: Tom Tancredo (C) has nearly caught John Hickenlooper (D) in the race for governor, as support for Dan Maes (R) has completely collapsed.
Hicklenlooper barely leads Tancredo, 47% to 44%, with Maes at just 5%.
"When Tancredo and Maes were splitting the vote relatively evenly it looked like that would be enough to win but now Hickenlooper really appears to be at risk of losing. "
In an interview with
CBS News, ex-wife Jenny Sanford didn't seem to know: "He hasn't told me yet. You know, he might have something up his sleeve, but if he knows what he's going to do, he hasn't shared it with me, and so we're preparing for any host of possibilities. He could live down the street. He could, you know, move to Argentina. She could move here, I don't know."
In an interview last month, Sanford
would not rule out a possible return to politics after his term as South Carolina governor ends in January.
AP/GfK Poll: "Despite record political spending and months of frenzied campaigning, one-third of likely voters remain steadfastly undecided or favor a candidate but say they could change their mind... Such a large group might seem like a mother lode of opportunity for Democrats scuffling to unearth enough votes to prevent a Republican takeover of Congress. Yet a close look reveals that these people aren't especially friendly to the party that seems all but certain to lose House and Senate seats on Nov. 2."
An extensive
Washington Post canvass of hundreds of local tea party groups found that the the organization is "not so much a movement as a disparate band of vaguely connected gatherings that do surprisingly little to engage in the political process."
"Seventy percent of the grass-roots groups said they have not participated in any political campaigning this year. As a whole, they have no official candidate slates, have not rallied behind any particular national leader, have little money on hand, and remain ambivalent about their goals and the political process in general."
"The local groups stand in contrast to -- and, in their minds, apart from -- a handful of large national groups that claim the tea party label. Most of those outfits, including FreedomWorks and Tea Party Express, are headed by longtime political players who have used their resources and know-how to help elect a number of candidates
A new
Nielson Brothers poll finds Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD) with an edge over challenger Kristi Noem (R) in the race for Congress, 42% to 40%, with 17% undecided.
Most other recent polls have given Noem the edge in the race.
The Hotline notes Rick Santorum (R) "is putting all his presidential eggs into the Iowa basket... His decision this week to join a three-day, 1,300 mile bus tour through 45 Iowa counties calling for the removal of three Iowa Supreme Court justices who helped legalize gay marriage is a shrewd political maneuver that will grant him priceless exposure to the state's grassroots conservative groups. It also confirms Santorum's strategy of approaching Iowa as an all-or-nothing gambit."
"If he can effectively sell his social conservative platform to Iowa voters, Santorum has an opportunity to do what former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) did in 2008: Pull off a stunning upset by running hard to the right in hopes of exploiting the divisions between better-known top tier candidates who are more socially moderate. Even if he manages to pull it off, he's still a long shot -- but at least it's a shot. Conversely, if he loses Iowa, Santorum can kiss his White House ambitions goodbye."
Ken Vogel takes a fascinating look at American Crossroads, the outside funding group founded by Karl Rove and other GOP operatives, which initially "enthusiastically embraced the idea of public disclosure of donors, in part because of a professed commitment to transparency."
But after four months of struggling to raise money, the operatives spun off a sister group called Crossroads GPS which did not require donor disclosure and fundraising finally took off.
"The success Crossroads has had in attracting anonymous donors highlights a broader trend on the right in which political activity has increasingly shifted to non-profit corporations that can conceal donors' identities. Republican finance insiders interviewed for this story say it is easier to get major GOP donors to contribute when there's no risk of having their identities disclosed and being subjected to either additional appeals for money from other groups, or to criticism from President Barack Obama and other Democrats."
Oprah Winfrey "has scored the second television interview with former President George W. Bush as he embarks on a book tour," the
New York Times reports.
"The interview will be shown on Nov. 9, the day that his book,
Decision Points, is published by Crown Publishers. Mr. Bush's first sit-down TV talk will be with Matt Lauer, of the
Today show, and will be shown Nov. 8 in prime time on NBC."
"The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president."
-- Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), in an interview with the
National Journal, describing his goal in retaking the Senate.
Rhode Island gubernatorial candidate Frank Caprio (D) blasted President Obama in a radio interview over the president's decision not to endorse him during a visit to the state today, the
Providence Journal reports.
Said Caprio: "He can take his endorsement and really shove it as far as I'm concerned."
The latest
Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll finds Pat Toomey (R) back out in front of Rep. Joe Sestak (D) in the state's closely watched U.S. Senate race, 47% to 42% with 11% still undecided.
A new
EPIC/MRA poll in Indiana shows former Sen. Dan Coats (R) on his way to reclaiming his old job as he leads challenger Brad Ellsworth (D) by a wide margin, 53% to 35%.
A new
Washington Post poll in Maryland confirms what a
Baltimore Sun poll found over the weekend: Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) is pulling away from former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) in their rematch for governor and leads by a whopping 14 point margin, 54% to 40%.
Politico: "Democratic sources tell us that if they lose the House, Pelosi may not only be out of a leadership job but also could start setting the stage for her retirement from Congress in 2011... There are rumblings that Democratic Caucus Chairman John Larson of Connecticut could make a play for party leader, arguing for fresh ideas and fresh leadership... The more interesting subplot to follow is what happens to the party's most powerful chairmen who win reelection but find themselves back in the minority... One fun drama to watch: Who will agree to run the DSCC, given that the playing field of Senate seats in 2012 clearly favors the GOP?... McConnell is the only truly safe leader in Congress, and a big GOP pickup on Nov. 2 -- in the range of five to eight seats -- would dramatically strengthen his hand in dealing with Obama."
"Her opponent and that crowd in Washington make Richard Nixon look like a member of Students for a Democratic Society. They make Newt Gingrich and George Bush look like garden variety liberals."
-- Bill Clinton, quoted by
CNN, at a campagin event for Tarryl Clark (D) who is running against Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R-MN).
A new
University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll finds Gov. Rick Perry (R) leads challenger Bill White (D) by 10 points, 50% to 40%, in the race for governor.
Said pollster Jin Henson: "As the electorate begins to pay more attention, the numbers at the top of the ticket and in the down-ballot races suggest a predictable pattern of partisan alignment, in which the trends of Republican identification we've seen in the last few decades are being amplified by a broader national political environment favorable to Republican candidates."
John Heilemann: "Until not long ago, the only people who took seriously the notion that Palin would make a White House bid in 2012, let alone win the Republican nomination, were those who really do live at the unicorn ranch--and spend their time there huffing pixie dust. When Palin quit the Alaska governorship in 2009, her political career seemed over. And even after she resurrected herself, emerging through her media ubiquity and her aggressive endorsement strategy as arguably the most powerful figure in the GOP, much of the political world believed that she was animated by non-presidential motives. To further pad her bank account. To redeem her reputation. To turn herself into the party's preeminent kingmaker. Or possibly all three."
"But today the conventional wisdom about Palin is being revised again, nowhere more so than within the ranks of professional Republicans. Among two dozen senior strategists and operatives with whom I've spoken in recent days -- including many of those responsible for securing the nomination for the party's last three standard-bearers -- there is a growing consensus that Palin is running or setting herself up to run. All agreed that her entry would radically and fundamentally transform the race. Most averred that if she steps into the fray, she stands a reasonable chance of claiming the Republican prize. Indeed, more than one argued that she is already the de facto front-runner."
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