There are a lot of polls, both national and state, swirling around. I find it best to monitor the action at
FiveThirtyEight.com, where I've become a disciple of Nate Silver. And, I'm also constantly monitoring
Pollster.com. Things are looking good, pollwise, but
the right wingers have been on a crusade of late to say that John McCain is on the move.
That's why, while I try not to cherry pick polls, I take some glee in posting the
FOX News/Rasmussen polls from five key states: Florida, Missouri, Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina. These are all states Bush won. FOX/Rasmussen has Obama ahead in all but North Carolina, where he's tied.
Obama is doing very well in traditionally blue states and has locked down New Mexico and Iowa, which Bush won in 2004. That means if he wins any one of these five states, he's the president. I think he'll win far more than that. Somehow, FOX and the other right wingers will try to spin this into bad news for Obama. Let them spin themselves into a frenzy because this is pretty damn good for 22 days out. And, remember, today, in the new stump speech,
the Erratic One said he has Obama right where he wants him. Okay:
Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polling this week in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia shows a very stable race whose underlying dynamic strongly favors Barack Obama over John McCain.
Obama holds a narrow advantage ranging from two to five percentage points in four of the five states and is tied with McCain in North Carolina. Keep in mind that all five of these states were carried by George W. Bush in Election 2004.
The only notable change in the horse race results this week come from Ohio where Obama is now on top, 49% to 47%. For each of the previous two weeks, McCain was up by a point in the Buckeye State after enjoying larger leads earlier this fall. The race for Ohio’s 20 Electoral College votes is now well within the margin of sampling error but trending towards the Democrat.
In Virginia, a state that no Democrat has won since 1964, Obama earns 50% support for the third straight week while McCain is at 47%. Those results are essentially unchanged from each of the past two weeks.
In Florida, it’s Obama 51%, McCain 46%. That’s a bit closer than last week when Obama enjoyed a seven-percentage point lead. But, as recently as mid-September, McCain had been leading by five. This is the second straight week that Obama has been over the 50% mark in Florida. McCain has not topped 47% in any of the last three Florida Fox News/Rasmussen Reports polls.
In Missouri, the results are unchanged from a week ago—Obama 50%, McCain 47%. A month ago, before Wall Street’s financial problems became visible on Main Street, McCain was up by five points in Missouri.
The first Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll in North Carolina finds a tie in the Tar Heel State. Both McCain and Obama earn 48% of the vote. These numbers represent a very slight improvement for McCain compared to earlier Rasmussen Reports polling in North Carolina but the fact that the race is even competitive in this southern state signals trouble for McCain.
This only means it is time to redouble our efforts. We need to vanquish the GOP.
Crush their spirits as Markos says.
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