SSP Updates 20 Race Ratings

by: Crisitunity

Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 5:14 PM EDT

• PA-Sen: Lean R to Tossup

• CA-Gov: Tossup to Lean D
• CO-Gov: Likely D to Lean D
• MD-Gov: Tossup to Lean D

• AZ-03: Likely R to Lean R
• CA-03: Likely R to Lean R
• CO-04: Tossup to Lean R
• FL-02: Tossup to Lean R
• FL-12: Likely R to Lean R
• MA-06: Safe D to Likely D
• MA-10: Lean D to Tossup
• MS-04: Lean D to Tossup
• NC-11: Likely D to Lean D
• NY-20: Lean D to Tossup
• NY-22: Likely D to Lean D
• OR-05: Lean D to Tossup
• TN-04: Lean D to Tossup
• TX-27: Safe D to Likely D
• VA-11: Lean D to Tossup
• WA-06: Safe D to Likely D

14 of these changes favor Republicans; 6 races have moved in the Democratic direction. If anything, we're seeing a continuation of the pattern where the Dems in some high-profile statewide races seem to have bottomed out and there's a little bounce-back, but where things seem to be keeping on worsening in the House. (Although that probably doesn't have as much to do with the overall national atmosphere continuing to get worse, as it just does with additional polling coming to light that lets us see more underserved races in sharper relief.)

SSP Daily Digest: 10/25 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 4:21 PM EDT

• CA-Sen: The polls can't seem to decide whether the California Senate race is tightening, loosening, or staying basically the same, but it was enough to finally get Carly Fiorina to do what the NRSC had probably hoped she would have done months ago: she put $1 million of her own money into the race. (She'd spent $5 mil of her own on the primary, but nothing since then.) On top of that, the NRSC is throwing an additional $3 million into the race for the last week, while Barbara Boxer is calling the bluff with $4 million from her account for ads of her own.

• NV-Sen: As we expected, Harry Reid's been keeping up a steady drip-drip of endorsements from prominent Republicans around Nevada. The most recent one: term-limited state Sen. Dean Rhoads, who represents almost all of the state (geographically) except Clark and Washoe Counties. (H/t LookingOver.)

• FL-Gov: Wow, Bill McCollum actually ate his own cat fud. With little time left on the clock, he swallowed any remnants of his pride and endorsed primary rival Rick Scott, the guy he swore he'd never endorse.

• RI-Gov: Interesting approach from a blue state Dem: Frank Caprio just told the President to "shove it," in reaction to Barack Obama's apparent decision not to endorse him when he was in Rhode Island today. Payback for Lincoln Chafee's Obama endorsement in '08? Or reverse payback for Caprio's reported flirting with a party switch? Or elaborate theater staged for Caprio's benefit, to help distance himself from the White House?

• OH-Gov: Obama and Biden alert! The Dynamic Duo are adding yet another campaign stop in Ohio, where saving Ted Strickland seems to be one of the White House's top priorities. On Sunday, both will appear with Strickland, and then there'll be a Biden/Strickland stop later in Toledo.

• CA-47: Um, maybe someone should tell Van Tran that taking a page from the Carl Paladino playbook isn't really a good idea right now... Tran's out with foul-smelling scratch-and-sniff mailers in the district, hitting Loretta Sanchez for the "stench of Washington."

• CO-04: Add one more body on the plague wagon: the DCCC brought out Betsy Markey on Friday. They announced that they won't be spending any more on the 4th this cycle. They'd previously drawn down their efforts here, but now they're fully pulling out. (If there's a bright spot, this is probably their last triage move... with one week left, there's really no time left to cut anyone else off.)

• FL-12: Is there a growing sense of Republican worry in this district? They shouldn't lose an R+5 district in this climate, but they have probably the most credible 3rd party Tea Party challenger anywhere here, in the form of an actual county commissioner, Randy Wilkinson, who internals polls have seen taking gobbling up double-digit vote shares. They're taking the problem seriously enough to have Newt Gingrich doing robocalling on behalf of GOP nominee Dennis Ross, suggesting that Wilkinson is a plant from next door's Alan Grayson.

• IN-02: Oooops. Jackie Walorski ran footage in a web video of a South Bend neighborhood as an example of a neighborhood "in ruin" from Democratic policies. The residents of the neighborhood are now deeply offended, saying their neighborhood is hardly ruined at all, and are demanding an apology.

• KS-03: In a more normal year, this might be enough to do some serious damage in a close race: just-released police records show that Kevin Yoder (the GOP's nominee here) refused to take a breath test during a 2009 traffic stop. He pled guilty to speeding, also received a citation for not taking the test, and it was left at that.

• MS-04: Look who's in a bit of a panic, and revealing his true stripes: Gene Taylor just let his district's voters know that he isn't one of those Demmycrats at all! Why, he even voted for John McCain in 2008, he says.

• PA-11: Bill Clinton's traveling schedule takes him to three blue-collar districts that were, in the '08 Dem primaries, some of the most die-hard Clinton districts anywhere, now all home to pitched battles. He's appearing in the 11th tomorrow in support of Paul Kanjorski (who we'd expected, a few months ago, to be the first Dem incumbent we wrote off, but who seems to still be in the thick of things). On Thursday, he also visits PA-03 and PA-15.

• VA-05: If you weren't already sold on Tom Perriello's particular brand of awesome, check out the highlight reel of some of the best clips from his most recent debate with Rob Hurt.

• WA-06: Here's an internal poll that's a real head-scratcher, that requires a bit of explanation. Rob Cloud, the same doofus who runs against Norm Dicks every cycle (four times in a row now) and gets crushed, claims to have an internal poll out giving him a four-point lead over the long-time Dem. (Well, four if you do your own math. For some reason, the poll gave actual respondent totals only, 609 to 558 with 95 undecided. If that strange method doesn't by itself set off alarm bells, the polling firm is someone called Wenzel (out of Ohio), a company I'd only heard of once, when they polled OH-Gov and OH-Sen last year on behalf of Ohio Right to Life... but (h/t to quiller) it turns out have a regular gig as WorldNetDaily's pollster and have been responsible for extremely leading-question-rife polls about Barack Obama's citizenship. And on top of all that, Dicks won the Top 2 primary (the most reliable poll possible) with 57% of the vote, with a combined GOP vote share of 43% (of which Cloud got a pathetic 29%),which shouldn't imply much vulnerability. On the other hand, Dicks' district is "only" D+5, one of the least-blue districts that isn't home to an on-the-radar race... and moreover, Dicks has seemed pretty invisible as far as I can tell, compared with next-door neighbor Adam Smith who's in a similarly D+5 district but got a polling-related wake-up call and has been working his butt off lately. So, uh... who knows?  

• NRCC: Eager to maximize last-minute take-over opportunities, the party of fiscal responsibility is throwing some more debt on the pile. The NRCC just took out a $20 million line of credit to fund some more late-in-the-game advertising.

• Dark Money: Just as the actual universe's mass is mostly composed of dark energy and dark matter, so too the political universe is apparently mostly composed of dark money these days. Hotline's Jeremy Jacobs has an excellent piece that pulls together all the GOP spending by shadowy third-party groups, fleshing out the IE picture greatly, and also showing a remarkable amount of avoidance of duplication of efforts in the districts. They couldn't actually be coordinating their efforts behind-the-scenes, you think? (Not that that's illegal, as far as I know.)

• IEs: Speaking of IEs, if you haven't been following spiderdem's weekly series over in the diaries regarding the back-and-forth battle of the independent expenditures between the DCCC and NRCC, you absolutely should. It rounds all the numbers up in one handy place, and puts them in the context of the probable lay of the land.

• SSP TV:
• AK-Sen: Here's that NRSC ad mentioned late last week, where they hit Scott McAdams in a preemptive attack to keep him from shooting the gap (and here's the SOTB: $75K)
• CA-Sen: No more giddy Carlyfornia Dreaming here, with a dour ad from the Fiorina camp hitting Barbara Boxer for California's dire economic straits
• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio's closing statement is a plain talk-to-the-camera spot saying "Reclaim America!"
• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold's out with the ad that he should have run about two months ago, making fun of Ron Johnson's whiteboard and platitudes
• NM-Gov: Susana Martinez makes the Diane Denish/Bill Richardson connection about as explicit as humanly possible in her new spot
• FL-22: Ron Klein seems to have finally moved away from Allen West's homeowners association liens, with the Outlaws gang connections too juicy even for him to ignore
• ID-01: Walt Minnick cites his independence and rags on Raul Labrador for getting his own last ad pulled for its bogusness
• MN-06: Taryl Clark hits Michele Bachmann for, well, being a "celebrity"
• VA-05: Robert Hurt goes after Tom Perriello for being a Washington insider

• Rasmussen:
• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 48%, Meg Whitman (R) 42%
• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 48%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%
• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 56%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%
• IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth (D) 34%, Dan Coats (R) 52%
• MD-Gov: Martin O'Malley (D-inc) 52%, Bob Ehrlich (R) 42%
• ND-Sen: Tracy Potter (D) 25%, John Hoeven (R) 72%
• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 45%, Tom Corbett (R) 50%
• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 44%, Pat Toomey (R) 48%
• RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 28%, John Robitaille (R) 25%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 35%
• SD-Gov: Scott Heidepriem (D) 36%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 55%
• TX-Gov: Bill White (D) 42%, Rick Perry (R-inc) 51%

WV-Sen: Manchin Pulling Away, According to PPP

by: Crisitunity

Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 2:48 PM EDT

Joe Manchin (D): 50 (48)
John Raese (R): 44 (45)
Undecided: 6 (7)
(MoE: ±2.8%)

Here's some pretty good news out of the Mountain State: PPP's newest poll of the Senate race has Joe Manchin putting some extra distance between him and John Raese. (PPP, of course, was the first to find Manchin back in the lead, after also being the first to find Manchin trailing. In fact, come to think of it, other than that one PPP poll, the only pollster that's ever given Raese the lead has been the Rasmussen/Fox axis.)

Manchin remains extremely personally popular (69/23 approval), and the only reason he's not running away with this is Barack Obama's horrible 31/65 approval, and GOP leads on generic ballot questions. The reason for his small gain seems to be that he's even making some inroads among self-identified conservative voters (up to 24% with them, from 17% last time).

In case there were any doubts about what space Manchin would occupy in the next Congress... and just to make sure he keeps making even more inroads with those conservative voters... Manchin's latest statement to the media has him questioning whether he'd back that wild-eyed liberal Harry Reid for majority leader, or even back Obama for president in '12. Raese, on the other hand, is in the news for some one-hand-punching-the-government, other-hand-in-the-trough hypocrisy (though nothing quite rising to Ron Johnson levels yet). The Charleston Gazette details how his company, Greer Industries, has racked up $2.4 million in federal contracts and $32 million in state contracts in the last decade.

CO-Gov, CO-Sen: Gubernatorial Race Close As Maes Evaporates

by: Crisitunity

Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 1:00 PM EDT

John Hickenlooper (D): 47 (47)
Dan Maes (R): 5 (13)
Tom Tancredo (C): 44 (33)
Undecided 4 (7)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 47 (46)
Ken Buck (R): 47 (45)
Undecided: 6 (9)
(MoE: ±3.4%)

Wow, here's one more case this cycle of conventional wisdom about a race changing on a dime. John Hickenlooper spent several months looking like a near shoo-in for Governor, thanks to the split ultra-conservative field between Dan Maes and Tom Tancredo. The only thing that could change that would be one of them dropping out, or utterly collapsing... and it looks like that's exactly what's happening with Maes, who's become this cycle's Dede Scozzafava (without all the moderate apostasy, of course), polling at all of 5% with 8/75 favorables. Tancredo has somehow rehabilitated his image too, taking his old 27/50 faves from August and turning them into a positive 45/44, and even pulling into a 46-44 lead among independents.

Hard to believe the super-tight Senate race would ever play second fiddle here, but it's seen very little movement, with Bennet falling from a 1-pt lead to a tie, all boiling down to float within the margin of error. This is one of those Senate races like Illinois where it's really a question of who's less disliked: Bennet (40/51) or Buck (44/49)?

For comparison purposes, it's worth taking a look at the SurveyUSA poll that came out this weekend from an overlapping timeframe (10/19-21). They really don't see the same thing happening in the gubernatorial race (they see Hickenlooper up 46-34-15). But interestingly, they're moving into a convergence with PPP on the Senate race that it's a flat-out tie (where PPP had tended to be one of the most Bennet-friendly pollsters before, while SUSA last saw this as a 5-pt Buck lead). I'd been under the impression (as seen here by SUSA) that the last-minute momentum in the Senate race was with Bennet (probably thanks mostly to the "buyer's remorse" problem for Buck), so I'm surprised to see him not move up in PPP, but this might suggest they were overstating his support the last couple times.

House Poll Dump: 10/25

by: James L.

Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 11:00 AM EDT

Joyce Elliott (D): 40 (34)
Tim Griffin (R): 52 (50)
(MoE: ±4.9%)

GA-02, GA-08: Landmark Communications (R) (10/19, likely voters):

Sanford Bishop (D-inc): 45
Mike Keown (R): 47

Jim Marshall (D-inc): 35
Austin Scott (R): 51
(MoE: ±3.5%)

KY-03: Braun Research for cn|2 (10/18-19, likely voters, 9/20-21 in parens):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 58 (53)
Todd Lally (R): 31 (30)
Undecided: 3 (12)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Bonus finding: Jack Conway leads Rand Paul by 54-36 in this district, up from 51-39 in the previous Braun poll.

KY-06: Mason-Dixon for the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV (10/15-19, likely voters):

Ben Chandler (D-inc): 48
Andy Barr (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.5%)

LA-02: Zata|3 for local Dems (10/20, likely voters):

Cedric Richmond (D): 53
Joe Cao (R-inc): 36
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4.4%)

ME-01, ME-02: Critical Insights (10/13-17, likely voters, 10/10-11 in parens):

Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 45 (48)
Dean Scontras (R): 40 (33)

Mike Michaud (D-inc): 49 (43)
Jason Levesque (R): 30 (30)
(MoE: ±5.7%)

MI-15: EPIC/MRA (10/16-19, likely voters):

John Dingell (D-inc): 53
Rob Steele (R): 36  
(MoE: ±4.9%)

NY-22: Abacus Associates for Maurice Hinchey (10/20-21, likely voters):

Maurice Hinchey (D-inc): 51
George Phillips (R): 34
(MoE: ±4.9%)

RI-01: Public Opinion Strategies for the NRCC (10/20-21, likely voters):

David Cicilline (D-inc): 41
John Loughlin (R): 41
(MoE: ±5.7%)

TN-08: The Tarrance Group for Stephen Fincher (10/18-19, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parens):

Roy Herron (D): 35 (36)
Stephen Fincher (R): 50 (47)
Undecided: 11 (14)
(MoE: ±5.8%)

WA-02: SurveyUSA (10/19-21, likely voters, 9/26-28 in parens):

Rick Larsen (D-inc): 50 (50)
John Koster (R): 46 (47)
Undecided: 3 (3)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

SSP Daily Digest: 10/25 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 7:56 AM EDT

Bonus: SUSA also tested the state AG, SoS, and Treasurer races.

Bonus: Ipsos also tested the AG, Ag Comm'r, and CFO races.

Note: The poll apparently asked respondents about "Alex Giannoulias."

Margins & Errors: On Sunday, Pat Toomey moved out to a 3-point lead in the Muhlenberg tracker, while Tom Corbett is +9... some sketchy details of IN-02 internals from Brian Howey: "Howard County Republican Chairman Craig Dunn said internal polling has shown Walorski chipping a 9-point Donnelly lead to "at the margin of error" around 4 percent." ... CNN sources tell them that Harry Reid's internals have him up 6 over Sharron Angle in NV-Sen... PPP will have polls out for CA, CO, KY & WV this week

Weekly Open Thread 2.0

by: James L.

Sun Oct 24, 2010 at 1:13 PM EDT

Under-the-Radar House Races Cattle Call

by: Crisitunity

Sat Oct 23, 2010 at 6:31 PM EDT

To help out, here's a table of the remaining Dems in districts with a Cook PVI of D+10 or less. (I was going to stop at D+5, but that'd be a short list, and it seems like there are occasional rumors of vulnerable members that extend higher up the list than that.) So, with an eye toward commenters who actually live in or near these districts or are connected to them, we're wondering: do any of the Dems in these districts have compelling opponents (or not-so-compelling ones who still have the money, or deep-pocketed third-party friends, to advertise)? Are any of them egregiously phoning their own campaigns in, not treating this year any differently than any other one? Are there any other under-the-radar reasons why we should be concerned about any of these races (i.e. minor scandals or ill-conceived votes that haven't resonated outside the local media)?

A few of these races have had public polls where there was a wide margin (OK-02, CT-02); a few more have had the incumbent release a crushing internal in response to rumored close GOP polls that never really surfaced (MN-07, PA-13). (And one of them, of course, was on the board but got taken off thanks to a little Nazi problem.) But for most of them, we're simply bereft of information... and that's where you guys come in.

In case you're wondering, there are only three Dem-held seats on the board that go higher up the list than this: the open seat race in RI-01 (D+13), John Dingell in MI-15 (D+13), and Barney Frank in MA-04 (D+14).

Senate Cattle Call (October 2010)

by: James L.

Sat Oct 23, 2010 at 4:12 PM EDT

It might also be helpful to indicate the cutoff point where you think the losses end and the retentions begin. But that's up to you!

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Oct 22, 2010 at 5:00 PM EDT

SSP Daily Digest: 10/22 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Fri Oct 22, 2010 at 2:49 PM EDT

• PA-Sen: Barack Obama will be making a four-state swing through the east coast and midwest over the weekend prior to the election; one of the stopping spots will be Philadelphia, where he'll be doing a canvassing event. He'll also be doing rallies in Chicago, Cleveland, and Bridgeport, Connecticut (indicating they're still leaving nothing to chance with Richard Blumenthal).

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman breaking self-funding records has become something of a dog-bites-man story around here, but one more for old times sake: she spent $23 million in the first half of October, bringing her all-cycle total to $163 million. Jerry Brown, by contrast, spent $14.6 million in that period, bringing his all-cycle spending to $25 million.

• CO-Gov: I doubt this is much of a game-changer, but it may help flip a few more Colorado Springs area votes in Tom Tancredo's direction (if there were any Dan Maes supporters left there). Rep. Doug Lamborn became perhaps the most prominent elected Republican in Colorado to publicly come out in support of Tancredo, rather than Maes.

• MN-Gov: The RGA must be seeing something the polls aren't telling them, because they're still fighting till the end in Minnesota. (Of course, if one committee has money to throw at unlikely races and see what sticks, it's the RGA.) They just gave $1 million to third party group Minnesota Future to run more anti-Mark Dayton (and probably anti-Tom Horner) ads. (You may remember Minnesota Future from the whole Target contribution controversy. Interestingly, Hubbard Broadcasting, owner of local TV station KSTP, also was just identified as having given $25K to Minnesota Future. Y'know, because they're part of that liberal lamestream media.)

• FL-24: And here I'd thought we'd dodged something of a bullet when Karen Diebel got sent packing to spent more time guarding her swimming pool. Sandy Adams, who seems likely to be the next Representative for the Space Coast, has come out in favor of the "biblical teachings" rather than the theory of evolution. I look forward to hearing her proposals for a faith-based space program next.

• ID-01: The Tea Party Express finally endorsed Raul Labrador in the 1st. However, that comes only after they tried to endorse Democratic incumbent Walt Minnick as their token Dem fig-leaf and he rejected the endorsement (over racist statements by one of their, at the time, key members).

• Early voting: Ohio Democrats are pointing to an edge in early voting, where they're leading 44 percent to 34 percent for Republicans in votes cast so far. The Republicans are claiming the edge after three days of early voting in Florida, with a 148,000 vote edge, although Dems pointed out that was about where the numbers were in the 2006 election.

• Redistricting: Here's a good counterpoint to several articles that have shrugged off the possible large Republican advantage on the redistricting front coming out of this election, one that actually looks at the actual number of House seats that are likely to be influenced. Extrapolating likely control of state governorships and legislatures, the GOP will have "untrammeled" control over 125 House seats while Dems will control only 62, a worse outcome than 1990 or 2000. (43 are in commission-based states or at-large states, with 205 drawn by divided governments.)

• Chamber of Commerce: This article was been making the rounds, but it's a must-read if you haven't already done so and you're interested in the "dark money" that's swamping the transparent money, this cycle more than ever. The NYT digs into what corporations are using the national Chamber of Commerce as a pass-through for their contributions, including Prudential, Dow Chemical, and Dutch insurer Aegon.

• SSP TV:
• AZ-Sen: This looks like John McCain's last ad, as it's a soft-focus closing argument type of spot
• CO-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters hits Ken Buck on environmental issues
• DE-Sen: Here's the first Chris Coons ad to take on Christine O'Donnell directly, saying she lives in the "Twilight Zone"
• NV-Sen: Harry Reid rolls out endorsements from various local business leaders in his newest ad
• WA-Sen: Waiting until the end to go after Dino Rossi for his anti-abortion stance seems to be tradition now, in order to swing any last-minute moderate women who haven't decided, and the DSCC piles on
• HI-Gov: Barack Obama, fresh off his Colleen Hanabusa spot, also cuts an ad touting Neil Abercrombie
• RI-Gov: The DGA keeps pounding on Lincoln Chafee over the tax hikes he'd like (I've also heard the RGA is buying an ad here on behalf of John Robitaille, though I haven't seen a link)
• WV-03: Ewwww... Spike Maynard plays the terrorist card against Arab-American Rep. Nick Rahall
• MoveOn: MoveOn seems to have saved their powder for one huge blast at the end, running ads in eight Senate races and 20 House races (here's their WI-08 ad), helping only Dems who voted in favor of HCR
• Sierra Club: The Sierra Club is out with ads boosting Democratic incumbents in FL-22, MI-07, and AZ-08
• 60+ Assoc.: The AARP's evil doppelganger is running two spots, a two-fer in Arizona hitting both Raul Grijalva and Gabby Giffords, and... here's a new one... Solomon Ortiz in TX-27

• Rasmussen:
• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 44%, Tom Emmer (R) 41%, Tom Horner (I) 10%
• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 51%, Carl Paladino (R) 37%
• NY-Sen: Charles Schumer (D-inc) 59%, Jay Townsend (R) 31%
• SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 44%, Kristi Noem (R) 49%

SSP Daily Digest: 10/22 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Fri Oct 22, 2010 at 8:04 AM EDT

Rather unusually, Suffolk included Blumenthal & Malloy twice in their head-to-head questions: once as the Dem candidate, and once as the Working Families Party candidate. Each got about 3-4% as the WFP candidate. I've never seen a pollster do this in New York, where the practice of fusion voting is best known.

Note: Among the 10% who have already voted, Schrader leads 47-46. This continues a pattern we've seen in other SUSA polls (and also some, but not all, of the early voting numbers by party registration).

SSP Daily Digest: 10/21 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Thu Oct 21, 2010 at 3:44 PM EDT

• KY-Sen: Matt Taibbi's new Rolling Stone article as he works the Rand Paul beat is a must-read even if it doesn't have any revelations as freaky as the "Aqua Buddha" story, although there's some vague and anonymous racism from the newsletter that his snarky secret society put out. The prize-winning quote, though, deals with the Tea Partiers don't seem terribly phased by any of this:

("Well, I used to use that cologne myself," was the response of one Tea Partier to a question I posed about "Aqua Buddha")

• MO-Sen: American Crossroads has declared victory in Missouri, and is pulling out of advertising there, where Roy Blunt has a consistent but single-digit lead. (As for the actual party committees... well, it's probably not relevant, seeing as how Crossroads and its ilk have made them basically irrelevant this year.)

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid racked up a couple endorsements from the big-in-Nevada gaming industry, including PokerPAC. He also got the endorsement of the former chair of the RNC, Frank Fahrenkopf, who warned of the threat Sharron Angle (with her ties to anti-gambling Gary Bauer) might pose to the state's gaming industry.

• PA-Sen: Ah, sweet Schadenfreude. The Club for Growth is having to plug $1 million into the Pennsylvania Senate race in order to bail out their former boss, Pat Toomey.

• WI-Sen: Yet another story with Ron Johnson with his hand in the trough he so regularly decries: he says he's not quite sure how five of his employees (and 10 dependents) at his plastics firm Pacur wound up on BadgerCare, the state's health insurance program for the poor. That would seem to contradict previous statements from the Johnson camp that all Pacur full-time employees are covered by the company's plan.

• AZ-07, AZ-08: I know John McCain has refudiated all his old mavericky ways, but did he actually have to go so far as to violate his signature piece of mavericky legislation, the McCain-Feingold Act? He recently cut spots for GOP candidates in the 7th and 8th, in which he and Jon Kyl appeared, and paid for them out of Friends of John McCain (his campaign committee). Dems have filed FEC complaints against McCain, saying that if he coordinated with the Ruth McClung and Jesse Kelly campaigns, he would've been limited to $4,800 contributions to each (they'd be legal independent expenditures if there was truly no coordination).

• CO-03, CO-04: The gang-that-couldn't-shoot-straight strikes twice, in two different neighboring Old West districts. In the 3rd, an anti-abortion group has been hitting the airwaves attacking Ken Salazar. That's fine, but Ken Salazar is the Secretary of Interior. His brother (the one with the mustache) is John Salazar, the Rep. from the 3rd. OK, understandable, since they're brothers... but how do you explain the confusion in the 4th, where not just some outside group but the Cory Gardner campaign mixed up Betsy Markey with Massachusetts Rep. Ed Markey? They accused her of voting for the Obama budget, which she didn't; that was the other Markey.

• FL-25: I don't know how far this will get, but give local Dems in south Florida credit for audaciousness. A Joe Garcia backer filed a lawsuit trying to get David Rivera removed from the ballot. The suit alleges that Rivera should be removed because of state election finance disclosure irregularities, concerning Rivera's mysterious claims of being a contractor to USAID despite USAID saying he wasn't. While they cite a comparable case where a state senate candidate was recently stricken from the ballot from similar problems, I'm wondering if it may be too late to do anything about that even if it succeeds on the merits (although if it only serves to move the USAID deception into the spotlight, that's good too).

• MO-04: More triage news... on the Republican side? Despite news of a Vicky Hartzler internal poll yesterday that showed a tied race, the NRCC is packing up, at least from the Kansas City market. I wonder if that has more to do with feeling neighboring KS-03 is locked down, as there are other smaller media markets in the 4th where they might still spend, but I think this has to count as at least a partial pullout.

• SD-AL: This is an interesting counterpoint to the anti-Pelosi (or at least Pelosi-skeptical) tide that seems to be rising among threatened Blue Dogs, including Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (who's in the skeptic camp): GOP challenger Kristi Noem is saying that if she wins her race, she's not sold yet on John Boehner as Republican leader, but would like to see who else might run. Recall that Noem previously politely told Sarah Palin to stay far away from her race, so this isn't the first time she's pantomimed independence.

• Early voting: There's been some buzz today about a CBS News story that says that Dems are doing better than expected in early voting, although it's kind of shy on actual numbers. It mentions that Dems have outpaced GOPers in early voting in Iowa, Maryland, North Carolina, and Clark Co., Nevada, while there's a Republican edge in Florida and Colorado. Jon Ralston, of course, has more data on Nevada, while Politico has some Iowa tidbits, involving early ballot requests in IA-03 (where 50% of requests are from Dems, but where Dems are 36% of the electorate) and IA-02 (51% of the requests, 38% of the electorate).

• SSP TV:
• CO-Sen: Women's Voices Women Vote Action Fund is out with a "high six-figure" buy in Colorado, with the first TV ad to take on Ken Buck's failure to prosecute that 2005 rape case (the "buyer's remorse" incident)
• KY-Sen: The DSCC hits Rand Paul on his support for the 23% sales (aka "fair") tax
• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle wonders how Harry Reid made all that money in her new ad (helpful fact from Jon Ralston: he was a millionaire even before he was in the House)
• WV-Sen: Outsourcing seems to be the hot button issue coming out of focus groups that works for the Dems these days, as the DSCC keeps hitting John Raese on it with their new spot
• AZ-03: Jon Hulburd has another TV ad against Ben Quayle, poking at his values and overall maturity
• HI-01: Colleen Hanabusa's new ad has a special guest star in the form of Barack Obama
• IN-09: The SEIU goes after Todd Young on Social Security privatization
• NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter, in her own ad, also works the SSP angle against Frank Guinta
• VA-05: Is the DCCC trying to drive up indie teabagger Jeffrey Clark's numbers? They're out with a spot hitting Robert Hurt for all the tax-raising he did in the state legislature

• Rasmussen:
• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 37%, Bill Brady (R) 45%, Rich Whit(n)ey (G) 2%, Scott Lee Cohen (I) 6%
• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 52%
• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D-inc) 42%, Rick Berg (R) 52%
• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 54%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 33%
• SC-Gov: Vincent Sheheen (D) 38%, Nikki Haley (R) 47%

PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Keystone Kollapse

by: Crisitunity

Thu Oct 21, 2010 at 1:26 PM EDT

Joe Sestak (D): 46 (43)
Pat Toomey (R): 48 (50)
Undecided 5 (7)
(MoE: ±3%)

While Quinnipiac doesn't quite give us the hat trick of three polls in a row with a lead for Joe Sestak, it does show, similarly, significant movement in Sestak's direction, not just from the undecided column but also directly out of Toomey's share. While Quinnipiac doesn't give registration or 2008-vote numbers, Barack Obama's approval is 44/53, showing this is a similar-looking sample to Tuesday's PPP poll. As with that poll, the difference is Dems finally consolidating around Sestak, who's 89-7 among Dems. (Toomey leads 56-35 among indies here, which explains their slightly more favorable overall result for Toomey.) Also, worth noting: Quinnipiac's survey period was ending at the same time that PPP's was beginning (see below), so there may have been slightly less Sestak surge for them to measure at that point.

Public Policy Polling (10/17-18, likely voters, 8/14-16 in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 46 (35)
Tom Corbett (R): 48 (48)
Undecided 6 (17)
(MoE: ±3.7%)

The gubernatorial race has gotten short shrift all cycle long -- partly because it hasn't been very interesting -- and even as it's been clear Sestak was making his move, there wasn't any matching movement in the gubernatorial race... until now. Here's the gubernatorial half of the PPP sample, and it's the best result Dan Onorato has gotten all cycle. Republican Tom Corbett still has better favorables (47/34 to Onorato's 45/39), and he hasn't lost any ground in the toplines, but Onorato has closed the gap among indies (to the same 48-46 Corbett lead as the toplines).

Muhlenberg (10/17-20, likely voters, 10/16-19 in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 43 (44)
Pat Toomey (R): 43 (41)
Undecided 14 (15)

Dan Onorato (D): 38 (40)
Tom Corbett (R): 49 (47)
Undecided 12 (14)
(MoE: ±5%)

Muhlenberg's daily tracking poll splits the difference: they keep seeing a tossup race between Sestak and Toomey (although the tie is down a few points from yesterday's results), but not seeing what PPP is seeing regarding the gubernatorial race.

SSP Daily Digest: 10/21 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Thu Oct 21, 2010 at 8:17 AM EDT

Scott McAdams (D): 23 (22)
Joe Miller (R): 37 (38)
Lisa Murkowski (I): (37) 36
Undecided: 2 (2)
(MoE: ±3%)

Look at this crap question wording:

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Scott McAdams, the Democrat and Joe Miller, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for or would you write in the name of Lisa Murkowski, who is also running?

AK-Gov: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 36 (38)
Sean Parnell (R-inc): 62 (57)
Undecided: 1 (2)
(MoE: ±3%)

AR-Sen: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41
John Boozman (R): 55
Undecided: 2
(MoE: ±3.5%)

AR-Gov: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mike Beebe (D-inc): 62
Jim Keet (R): 33
Undecided: 2
(MoE: ±3.5%)

CA-Sen: PPIC (10/10-17, likely voters, 9/19-26 in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 43 (42)
Carly Fiorina (R): 38 (35)
Undecided: 13 (17)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

CA-Gov: PPIC (10/10-17, likely voters, 9/19-26 in parens):

Jerry Brown (D): 44 (37)
Meg Whitman (R): 36 (38)
Undecided: 16 (18)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

FL-Sen: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 20 (23)
Marco Rubio (R): 46 (42)
Charlie Crist (I): 32 (31)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

FL-Gov: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 46 (45)
Rick Scott (R): 49 (47)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

IL-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) (PDF) (10/14-16, likely voters, 9/23-26 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 40 (36)
Mark Kirk (R): 42 (40)
LeAlan Jones (G): 4 (8)
Michael Labno (L): 3 (3)
Undecided: 10 (13)
(MoE: ±4.2%)

IL-Sen: Anzalone-Liszt (D) for the DSCC (10/13-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 41
Mark Kirk (R): 36
Michael Labno (L): 3
LeAlan Jones (G): 4
Undecided: 15
(MoE: ±4%)

KY-Sen: Mason-Dixon (PDF) for KY media (10/18-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jack Conway (D): 43
Rand Paul (R): 48
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±4%)

MA-10: NMB Research (R) for the NRCC (10/6-7, likely voters, no trendlines):

Bill Keating (D): 42
Jeff Perry (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.9%)

ME-Gov: Pan Atlantic (PDF) (10/11-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Libby Mitchell (D): 28
Paul LePage (R): 33
Elliot Cutler (I): 14
Shawn Moody (I): 5
Kevin Scott (I): 0
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±4.4%)

ME-01: Pan Atlantic (PDF) (10/11-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 49
Dean Scontras (R):  33
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±6.2%)

ME-02: Pan Atlantic (PDF) (10/11-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mike Michaud (D-inc): 49
Jason Levesque (R): 29
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±6.2%)

MI-07: EPIC/MRA for MI media (10/16-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mark Schauer (D-inc): 45
Tim Walberg (R): 39
Other: 7
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±5%)

MI-09: EPIC/MRA for MI media (10/16-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Gary Peters (D-inc): 48
Rocky Raczkowski (R): 43
Other: 4
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±5%)

MO-04: Wilson Research (R) (10/17-18, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ike Skelton (D-inc): 42
Vicky Hartzler (R): 42
(MoE: ±5.7%)

NY-22: Magellan  (R) (10/19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Maurice Hinchey (D-inc): 43
George Phillips (R): 43
(MoE: ±2.9%)

NY-Sen: Siena (PDF) (10/14-18, likely voters, 9/16-18 in parens):

Chuck Schumer (D-inc): 67 (63)
Jay Townsend (R): 28 (30)
Undecided: 5 (6)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

NY-Sen-B: Siena (PDF) (10/14-18, likely voters, 9/16-18 in parens):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 60 (57)
Joe DioGuardi (R): 31 (31)
Undecided: 9 (12)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

NY-Gov: Siena (PDF) (10/14-18, likely voters, 10/3-4 in parens):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 63 (56)
Carl Paladino (R): 26 (32)
Undecided: 9 (11)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Bonus: Eric Schneiderman (D) leads Dan Donovan (R) in the AG race, 44-37. Incumbent Tom DiNapoli leads Republican Harry Wilson in the comptroller race, 49-32.

OH-Sen: Quinnipiac (10/12-17, likely voters, 9/29-10/3 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 34 (36)
Rob Portman (R): 55
Undecided: 10 (8)
(MoE: ±2.8%)

OH-Sen: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/10-14 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 40 (41)
Rob Portman (R): 55 (52)
Undecided: 3 (2)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

OH-Gov: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/10-14 in parens):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 48 (44)
John Kasich (R): 47 (51)
Undecided: 2 (1)
(MoE: ±3.5%)

OR-01: SurveyUSA for KATU-TV (10/16-18, likely voters, no trendlines):

David Wu (D-inc): 51
Rob Corniles (R): 42
Don LaMunyon (C): 2
(MoE: ±4.1%)

PA-04: Susquehanna (10/16-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jason Altmire (D-inc): 47
Keith Rothfus (R): 35
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±4.9%)

WA-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) (10/14-16, likely voters, 7/27-8/1 in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 49 (49)
Dino Rossi (R): 47 (46)
Undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ±2.3%)

Note: Old trendlines.

WA-Sen: Marist (PDF) for McClatchy Newspapers (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 48
Dino Rossi (R): 47
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4%)