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October 27, 2010
"It's always nice to have friends who wish you the best, and as you know, in politics the number of people who say they were with you last time is substantially larger than the number of people that actually were with you last time."
-- Mitt Romney, quoted by the
Des Moines Register.
The Fix notes Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) "has given $440,000 to aspiring 2010 candidate and party committees via his Haley's PAC, another clear signal that the Mississippi governor is seriously considering running for president in 2012."
"Barbour has contributed to all 37 GOP gubernatorial candidates -- directly or through the state party -- and has also made a slew of donations to GOP Senate and House candidates."
First Read: "We've seen plenty of anger, frustration, and high emotions in past campaigns. But the anger this cycle -- culminating in Monday's stomping in Kentucky -- feels so much more different. Just think back to the contentious town halls in the summer of 2009, Joe Wilson's 'You lie,' and Newt Gingrich agreeing that the best way to describe the president is as a Kenyan anti-colonialist. More recently, we've seen the Carl Paladino phenomenon, a candidate's security detail handcuffing a reporter, and Frank Caprio telling the president to 'shove it.' And then there's all the women candidates (from both parties) aggressively saying, 'Man up.' Maybe our memories are too short, but the level of anger, disrespect, and incivility seems to be at an all-time high right now."
Louisiana Lt. Gov. Scott Angelle said that he has changed his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican because of his dissatisfaction with President Obama and the administration's recent actions on oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, the
New Orleans Times-Picayune reports.
Contrary to the conventional wisdom that Democrats have been outspent by conservative outside groups,
Politico reports that figures compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics "tell a different story."
"The money race totals come to $856 million for the Democratic committees and their aligned outside groups, compared to $677 for their Republican adversaries."
Separate tracks: "Democrats still have a sizable cash advantage in their party committees" while "conservative groups have spent $169 million on ads attacking Democratic House and Senate candidates, compared to $80 million by liberal-leaning groups."
A new
SurveyUSA poll in California shows Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) with a five point lead over challenger Carly Fiorina (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 40%.
The
San Francisco Chronicle notes Fiorina entered a Los Angeles hospital yesterday with an infection related to her reconstructive surgery following breast cancer last year. She's expected to be back on the campaign trail soon.
In the race for governor, Jerry Brown (D) still leads Meg Whitman (R) by an eight point margin, 46% to 38%.
A new
Sunshine State News poll in Florida shows Rick Scott (R) moving into a two point lead over Alex Sink (D) in the race for governor, 47% to 45%.
Said pollster Jim Lee: "These two are so evenly matched that for the last three weeks they have traded the lead more than once -- yet the election is now in Scott's favor. I say this because Scott leads by nearly 2 points overall (46-45) -- not a lot -- but by 4 points (48-44) among those who say they are most likely to vote."
Alaksa U.S. Senate candidate Joe Miller (R) "admitted in 2008 that he lied after being caught using Fairbanks North Star Borough computers for political purposes while he was working as a part-time borough lawyer," the
Anchorage Daily News reports.
In an email from his
employee records, Miller wrote, "I lied about accessing all of the computers. I then admitted about accessing the computers, but lied about what I was doing. Finally, I admitted what I did."
"During the campaign, Miller first refused to answer questions from reporters about it, then acknowledged he had been disciplined. He's refused to discuss the details, however and won't agree to an interview with the
Daily News."
A new
Franklin and Marshall poll in Pennsylvania shows Pat Toomey (R) leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D) by seven points in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 36%.
Said pollster Terry Madonna: "Seven points, with a week to go -- I don't think you can completely rule out a miracle or a game-changing turnout moment. But that would be a remarkable turnaround."
The latest
Morning Call/Muhlenberg tracking poll shows Toomey leading by five points, 46% to 41%.
Though a poll yesterday found the race a
dead heat, most give the edge to Toomey.
The Hill 2010 Midterm Election poll points to "a massive Republican wave that, barring an extraordinary turnaround, will deliver crushing nationwide defeats for President Obama's party."
Of the 42 toss up districts surveyed, "all but two of which are currently Democratic, 31 had Republicans in the lead. Democrats were up in just seven, and four were tied. In addition, there are some 15 Democratic districts that are so far into the GOP win column that they weren't polled. That would suggest at least 46 GOP pickups, plus whatever the party gets out of another 40 or 50 seats that some experts believe are in play."
Said pollster Mark Penn: "We didn't even poll in about 15 districts that are already too far gone
for Democrats. So that, along with our entire series of polls,
points to something in the range of a 50-seat gain for Republicans."
A new
Quinnipiac poll shows Andrew Cuomo (D) leading Carl Paladino (R) by 20 points in the race for governor, 55% to 35%, with 7% still undecided.
Said pollster Maurice Carroll: "That Republican wave that's said to be sweeping the country runs into a levee - a dam, a blockade, whatever figure of speech you like - at the New York border probably because of Carl Paladino's foot-in-mouth disease. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo can start measuring the Executive Mansion curtains. This race is all but over."
In the state's two U.S. Senate race, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) tops Joseph DioGuardi (R), 57% to 34%, while Sen. Charles Schumer (D) leads Jay Townsend (R), 64% to 32%.
A
Hibbitts, Davis & Midghall poll in Oregon finds Chris Dudley (R) narrowly leads former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) in the race for governor, 46% to 43% with 10% still undecided.
Said pollster Tim Hibbitts: "What it tells me is it's a very close race. It has been a very close race for four and a half months. If the next poll comes up with Kitzhaber up by a point or two, I will not be surprised."
A new
Oklahoma Poll shows Mary Fallin (R) maintains a comfortable lead over Jari Askins (D) heading into the final week of the gubernatorial campaign, 56% to 38%.
A similar poll in July had Fallin leading by just six points.
A new
Franklin and Marshall poll in Pennsylvania finds Tom Corbett (R) has opened up a 15-point lead over Dan Onorato (D) in the race for governor, 47% to 32%.
Said pollster Terry Madonna: "Coming back from 15 points would be an almost impossible feat."
Meanwhile, the latest
Morning Call/Muhlenberg tracking poll shows Corbett leading 52% to 38%.
A new
Clarus Research poll in Lousiana shows Sen. David Vitter (R) leading Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) in the U.S. Senate race by 12 points, 50% to 38%.
Key finding: "Although Vitter's favorability rating is below 50 percent, his campaign appears to have effectively tied his opponent to President Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress, whose unpopularity in Louisiana has helped to give Melancon a meager 34% favorability rating."
October 26, 2010
A new
InsiderAdvantage poll in Georgia finds Nathan Deal (R) leading former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) by six points, 47% to 41%, with Libertarian John Monds at 5% and another 7% still undecided.
It's the third poll in a week that shows the race could head to a runoff.
Said pollster Matt Towery: "Deal got a little closer to the magic 50-per-cent-plus-one mark
by improving his numbers among independent voters. This is likely the
result of recent ads in which Deal has punched back at Barnes, who hammered Deal with a series of tough ads for
months. But this race is not yet decided. Deal continues to have trouble
bringing Republicans home."
Sharron Angle's (R) campaign attorney wrote a fundraising letter to supporters charging that Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) "intends to steal this election," according to
Politico.
While light on specifics, the letter accuses Reid and his allies of illegally offering free food and gift cards in exchange for votes.
President Obama, who has been encouraging early voting around the country, voted absentee from the West Wing today, the
New York Times reports.
A new
Gallup poll finds that 43% of voters say that current economic conditions are the most important issue for the midterm elections, followed by health care and the size and power of the federal government.
"Together, the top three issues account for more than 80% of the total, suggesting the 2010 elections are being contested on a fairly narrow issue space. This is a departure from the past two midterm elections, when there was no dominant issue, and voters' choice for the most important one spanned a greater number of issues."
A new
Suffolk University poll in California shows Jerry Brown (D) with an eight point lead over Meg Whitman (R) in the race for governor, 50% to 42%.
In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leads by nine points over Carly Fiorina (R), 52% to 43%.
Said pollster David Paleologos: "The Golden State is looking to be a fairly deep shade of blue, with both Boxer and Brown reaching the all-important 50 percent mark, making it very difficult for either statewide Republican to catch their Democratic opponent. However, if the Democratic voters don't show up next Tuesday, both of these races could be very close."
A new
Public Policy Polling survey also finds Boxer leading by a 52% to 43% margin and
finds Brown leading 53% to 42%.
The
Cook Political Report forecasts a Democratic "net loss of 48 to 60 House seats, with higher losses possible. A turnover of just 39 seats would tip majority status into Republican hands. The midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating, if anything it has intensified... Over a quarter of the entire 255-member House Democratic caucus have trailed GOP opponents in at least one public or private survey, and nearly half have tested under 50 percent of the vote in at least one poll."
In the Senate, the forecast shows "a 7 to 9 seat net gain for Republicans... As various races begin to settle, the prospect of Republicans scoring the 10 seats necessary to reach 51 seats and the majority has greatly diminished... It's not impossible, or even unprecedented. It's simply very, very difficult."
A new
Pew Research poll finds 32% of voters think the country will be better off if Republicans win control of Congress, 32% think the country will be better off with Democrats in charge and 30% think it doesn't make any difference.
A new a
Reuters/Ipsos poll in Pennsylvania shows the U.S. Senate race deadlocked with both Pat Toomey (R) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D) tied among likely voters at 46% each.
This result stands in contrast to a
daily tracking poll which has Toomey pulling away.
Marco Rubio's (R)
latest ad in Florida's U.S. Senate race will have Republicans buzzing about a possible presidential bid if he wins. It's that good.
See more...
Washington Post: "House and Senate candidates have already shattered fundraising records for a midterm election and are on their way to surpassing $2 billion in spending for the first time, according to new campaign finance data."
"To put it another way: That's the equivalent of about $4 million for every congressional seat up for grabs this year."
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