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October 28, 2010
With more than 4,000 polls in his database this year,
Nate Silver concludes that on average, automated polling firms -- that conduct the so-called robopolls -- "have a 2-point Republican-leaning house effect, whereas the live interviewer polls have a 0.7-point Democratic-leaning house effect. The difference between the two, then, is 2.7 points."
A new
Public Policy Polling survey in Maine finds Paul LePage (R) leading independent Eliot Cutler (I), 40% to 28%, with Libby Mitchell (D) at 24%.
Key finding: "What's most remarkable about LePage's likely victory is that it comes despite the fact that a majority of Maine voters don't like him. 51% of them have an unfavorable opinion of him to only 42% who see him in a positive light. But because he has a relatively unified conservative base while Democratic leaning voters are splitting almost evenly between Mitchell and Cutler he's in a position to win without coming anywhere close to 50% of the vote."
A
We the People poll in Wisconsin shows Ron Johnson (R) continues to lead Sen. Russ Feingold (D) for U.S. Senate race, 48% to 44%, but the contest shows some signs of tightening.
A new
SurveyUSA poll in Kentucky finds Rand Paul (R) has opened up a wide lead over Jack Conway (D) in the U.S. Senate race and now leads by nine points, 52% to 43%.
"Paul leads in all but a few demographic groups, and his margin puts him in position to win in a landslide, which is generally considered to be 10 percentage points or more, if voters continue the trend in his direction."
"Bill Clinton sought to persuade Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) to drop out of the race for Senate during a trip to Florida last week -- and nearly succeeded,"
Politico reports.
"Meek agreed -- twice -- to drop out and endorse Gov. Charlie Crist's independent bid in a last-ditch effort to stop Marco Rubio, the Republican nominee who stands on the cusp of national stardom."
"The Crist, Meek and Clinton camps even set a date for an endorsement rally: the following Tuesday, Oct. 26. Meek was to give Crist his blessing and explain to his disappointed supporters -- many of whom deeply distrust the governor, who was elected as a Republican -- that their votes could save the Senate for the Democrats and save America from the rise of Rubio, who is viewed both as a hard-line conservative and a potential national figure."
A new
WPRI poll in Rhode Island confirms what an earlier poll
found: Lincoln Chafee (I) now leads the race for governor with 33%, followed by John Robitaille (R) and Frank Caprio (D) tied at 26% with 11% still undecided.
Said pollster Joe Fleming: "We're seeing a real shift in the governor's race. As a result of all this, Lincoln Chafee now has a lead - for the first time in this governor's race, somebody has a lead."
"I think Jon Stewart is as good an interviewer as there is in the public domain right now."
-- White House press secretary Robert Gibbs, at a briefing, on President Obama's appearance on the Daily Show last night.: "The shine has come off Barack Obama. His approval ratings are falling, fewer people would vote for him today than voted for him in 2008, and pundits interpret all of this as a bad sign for Democrats in Tuesday's midterm elections."
"But, the shine is coming off the Republicans, too -- and in equal magnitudes. It turns out, that in the worse economic climate since the Depression, American voters are disillusioned with candidates from both parties. And, if anything, the deflation of potential Republican presidential candidates is ever-so-slightly more precipitous than for President Obama."
Just before Rep. Michael McMahon (D-NY) and challenger Michael Grimm (R) took the stage for their debate, the
Staten Island Advance notes "there was high drama unfolding in the audience: The sudden presence of Grimm's former wife in a front-row seat -- courtesy of the McMahon campaign."
"Also, Grimm's former father-in-law, businessman Jhong Uhk Kim, better known as 'Master Kim,' and two of his former brothers-in-law... The apparent goal: To psych out Grimm."
But it didn't work as Grimm later told reporters, "She looked as beautiful as the day I met her. It was a pleasure to see them."
President Kennedy's famed speechwriter, Ted Sorensen, has been hospitalized after suffering a severe stroke, the
AP reports.
"Some of Kennedy's most memorable speeches resulted from such close collaborations with Sorensen that scholars have debated who wrote what. Sorensen said that the most famous line from Kennedy's inaugural address, 'Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country,' was written by the president himself. Others say it was Sorensen."
Highly recommended: Sorensen's memoir,
Counselor: A Life at the Edge of History.
Gawker: "Three years ago this week, an intoxicated Christine O'Donnell showed up at the apartment of a 25-year-old Philadelphian and ended up spending the night in his bed. Here's his story -- and photos -- of his escapade with the would-be Delaware senator."
A new
McClatchy-Marist survey finds Democrats and Republicans tied among likely voters in the generic congressional ballot at 46% each.
Among registered voters, Democrats actually lead by six points, 47% to 41%.
Jonathan Singer: "Digging a little deeper into the survey, an extremely interesting and important number comes out: The Democrats' strength among registered voters comes directly from the cell-only population... This data buttresses the findings published earlier this month by Pew that if pollsters are skipping cell-only voters -- exactly the type of voters who are more likely to vote Democratic -- their results may simply be too favorable for the GOP."
A new
RBI Strategies & Research poll in Colorado finds John Hickenlooper (D) leading the race for governor with 48%, followed by American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo (C) at 34% and Dan Maes (R) at just 10%.
Several recent surveys have found Tancredo just a few points behind Hickenlooper.
The latest
Political Insiders poll finds Democratic operatives split over who will win in four key Senate races -- Kentucky, Illinois, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
Key findings: 64% think Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) would pull out his race in Nevada, but 83% also thought that Jack Conway (D) would fall short in Kentucky. In Illinois, 52% thought Alexi Giannoulias (D) would win and 53% thought Joe Sestak (D) would prevail in Pennsylvania.
In contrast, solid majorities of GOP insiders thought their candidates would win all four races.
Daily Beast: "Jimmy Carter's
White House Diary looks like a page turner by comparison. Matt Drudge appears to have scored an early copy of George W. Bush's memoir,
Decision Points, though if his preview is any indication, the book's a snooze: Sections that Drudge highlights include a bone about how Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia almost walked out of Bush's ranch because he was so angry about Israel, until he saw a turkey and took it as a good omen. Drudge also says Bush reveals he gave an order to shoot down planes on September 11 and thought the plane in Pennsylvania had been shot down. Drudge adds that Bush rarely addresses his critics and steers clear of President Obama entirely."
A new
Mason-Dixon poll in Florida shows Alex Sink leading Rick Scott (R) in the race for governor by three points, 46% to 43% with 7% still undecided and 4% supporting another candidate.
Said pollster Brad Coker: "Without a doubt, the major reason that Scott is running behind other strong GOP candidates this cycle is that a majority of Florida voters have a negative opinion of him. If Scott wins, it will be one of the very, very rare instances where a candidate with a negative rating above 50 percent was able to prevail."
A Quinnipiac poll
released earlier today found Sink with a four point lead.
An interesting side note:
NBC News reports Scott has already spent $60 million of his own money on the campaign.
The
New York Daily News reports that Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH) "shocked teachers and students alike this month when she decided to talk about abortion to a classroom of 6-year-olds."
In a letter to parents, the principal of the school wrote: "Your children may come home with questions, especially if this is a topic that has not been broached in your home... She indicated that abortion involves the killing of a child before it is born."
A new
Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind survey in Delaware shows Chris Coons (D) holding a commanding 21-point lead over Christine O'Donnell (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 57% to 36%.
A similar survey earlier this month found Coons with a 17 point lead.
Said pollster Dan Cassino: "It would be an historic comeback for her to win on Tuesday."
John Avlon: "Hating President Obama has become its own industry -- and here's a new stat to prove it: To date, there have been at least 46 anti-Obama books published. I'm not talking about thoughtful criticisms of his policies, but detailed demonizations of the president."
Politifact: "After rating hundreds of claims in the 2010 election -- from TV ads, debates, interviews and mailings -- we're giving an overall Truth-O-Meter rating to the campaign. We rate it 'Barely True.' In a majority of claims checked this fall by PolitiFact and our eight state partners, we found a grain of truth, but it was exaggerated, twisted or distorted."
For eight months,
Frank Luntz conducted national polls and instant-response focus groups in 20 states in pursuit of the perfect political ad. His conclusions as to what works best -- and what is backfiring badly:
Rule No. 1: Because Americans loathe most politicians, they love a candidate who hates the game.
Rule No. 2: Being anti-Establishment is important, but being anti-Washington is essential.
Rule No. 3: Straight talk works best.
Rule No. 4: "If I have to sacrifice, so should my representatives."
Rule No. 5: Fake doesn't sell.
Rule No. 6: Be serious.
"I'll come down and cuss you if you need me to."
-- President Obama offering to help Georgia gubernatorial candidate Roy Barnes (D) in any way, as recounted by Barnes to the
Atlanta Journal Constitution.
The latest
Morning Call/Muhlenberg College tracking poll in Pennsylvania shows Pat Toomey (R) with an eight point lead over Rep. Joe Sestak (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 40% with 12% still undecided.
President Obama appeared on
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart last night and the video clip is definitely worth watching.
First Read: "The most striking part of President Obama's appearance on
The Daily Show wasn't his pitch to younger voters (though that was the purpose of the interview) or saying that outgoing economic adviser Larry Summers did a 'heck of a job' (which was an unfortunate choice of words, given what Bush said about Michael Brown after Katrina). Rather, what was remarkable was that it served as the president's most vigorous defense of his agenda, particularly health care -- against his liberal critics."
Jonathan Cohn: "I thought he was convincing, particularly when he talked about the ways
health care reform was already helping millions of Americans. Then
again, I've been making the same argument for a while, so others may not
react the same way."
See more...
In an interview to air tonight on
Entertainment Tonight, Sarah Palin said she will run for president in 2012 saying, "if there's nobody else to do it, then of course I would believe that we should do this."
Said Palin: "It's going to entail a discussion with my family [and] a real close look at the lay of the land, to consider whether there are those with that common sense, conservative, pro-Constitution passion, whether there are already candidates out there who can do the job ... or whether there's nobody willing to do it, to make the tough choices and not care what the critics are going to say about you, just going forward according to what I think the priorities should be."
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