November 3, 2010
ELECTION NIGHT, SIXTH AND FINAL THREAD.... I'm getting pretty tired, so let's say this is the last thread for the night.
12:00: AP is calling Pennsylvania's Senate race for Pat Toomey (R).
12:01: Looks like John Kasich (R) held on to win Ohio's gubernatorial race.
12:01: The thing about the Toomey and Kasich victories is that, earlier tonight, they looked surprisingly encouraging for Dems. Even though polls predicted both outcomes, the initial hopes make the defeats a little tougher for Democrats to swallow.
12:04: Not that the outcome was in doubt, but Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) has won re-election in Hawaii.
12:11: While his campaign was initially reluctant to concede, even after news outlets started calling it, Russ Feingold has conceded in Wisconsin.
12:16: Part of me thought the polls were wrong and Illinois voters would do the right thing. Apparently not -- the AP and MSNBC are calling the U.S. Senate race for Mark Kirk (R).
12:20: Keep in mind, while most of these Senate races will elect members who'll begin serving next year, Illinois' Kirk will join much sooner and vote in the lame-duck session. The 59-41 Senate will quickly become the 58-42 Senate before this Congress wraps up its work. Kirk is in a position, then, to screw up all kinds of important measures.
12:23: I guess that debate performance didn't bother voters as much as I'd hoped -- Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) won another term.
12:25: I'm afraid I just can't keep my eyes open, so I'm off until morning. Plenty of questions to keep an eye on for those of you still watching returns come in: Can Harry Reid (D) hang on in Nevada? Can Michael Bennet (D) hang on in Colorado? How about Patty Murray (D) in the state of Washington? Did Florida really elect a criminal to be its governor? When can we expect a result out of Alaska? Will House GOP gains get to 70?
See you in the morning.
—Steve Benen 12:00 AM
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November 2, 2010
ELECTION NIGHT, FIFTH THREAD.... Where does the time go? It seems like just an hour ago, we were starting our fourth thread. Oh wait...
11:02: Some outlets are already prepared to call California's gubernatorial race for Jerry Brown (D).
11:05: In the never-really-competitive category, everyone is calling Idaho's Senate race for incumbent Mike Crapo (R) and Oregon's Senate race for incumbent Ron Wyden (D). I've always liked Wyden, and it's nice to see a progressive win without breaking a sweat.
11:08: Being the House Budget Committee chairman apparently didn't help John Spratt (D) in South Carolina's 5th -- he lost.
11:12: CNN is noting that the Senate will be without a single African-American member next year. There's only one now -- Roland Burris of Illinois -- and he didn't run for a full term.
11:15: Tom Corbett (R) has won Pennsylvania's gubernatorial election. Not a surprise, though the polls did show a tighter race in the campaign's closing weeks.
11:19: The race was a real long-shot for Dems anyway, but I suppose it's worth noting that Michele Bachmann (R) has won re-election in Minnesota's 6th.
11:22: In New Mexico's gubernatorial race, Susana Martinez (R) appears to have beaten Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D). Rumor has it Martinez was recruited directly by Karl Rove.
11:25: Given the polls and the Senate race, this was entirely predictable, but Scott Walker (R) has won Wisconsin's gubernatorial race.
11:27: I'm genuinely curious to see the price-per-vote ratio in California's gubernatorial race. Whitman, the last time I checked, had spent 10 gajillion dollars -- only to lose.
11:33: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) appears to have won re-election in California. In case this wasn't obvious before, Republicans aren't taking back the Senate.
11:37: In Utah's U.S. Senate race, Mike Lee (R), who seems a little too anxious to shut down the government next year, easily won.
11:39: About a week ago, the National Republican Senatorial Committee decided to invest a few million dollars in California, rather than other states that seemed more competitive. It seemed like a dumb move at the time, and it seems like a dumb move now.
11:48: More heartbreakers for House Dems -- Etheridge loses in North Carolina, Pomeroy loses in North Dakota, Klein loses in Florida, and Space loses in Ohio.
11:55: Former Sen. Lincoln Chafee, the Republican-turned-independent, won Rhode Island's gubernatorial race tonight. Democrat Frank Caprio, who looked well positioned as recently as September, probably wishes he could take back that "shove it" line.
—Steve Benen 11:00 PM
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ELECTION NIGHT, FOURTH THREAD.... Yes, I'm doing one of these per hour. It seemed more manageable than having one enormous thread for the night.
10:00: Rep. Mary Fallin (R) appears to have won Oklahoma's gubernatorial race without too much trouble. It's a gubernatorial pick-up for the GOP.
10:02: More easy calls are announced -- John McCain (R) won re-election in Arizona, and Chuck Grassley (R) won re-election in Iowa.
10:06: You know, that gubernatorial race in South Carolina is looking a lot closer than expected. Remind me: how many times was Haley on the cover of Newsweek this year? If she loses, I guess the talk about her as a V.P. candidate will probably fade a bit.
10:12: DNC Chairman Tim Kaine is telling reporters that Dems will, in fact, lose the House.
10:16: In a pleasant surprise for Dems, Rep. Larry Kissell (D) appears to have overcome GOP targeting and won in North Carolina's 8th. Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) wasn't as fortunate in Pennsylvania's 11th, where the incumbent lost.
10:21: Recent polling showed Colorado's gubernatorial race getting pretty close, but MSNBC is calling it for Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D). His top challenger was former Rep. Tom Tancredo, running as an independent, who is one of only a handful of American politicians I find genuinely horrifying.
10:25: Speaking of Colorado's gubernatorial race, keep an eye on whether Dan Maes (R) manages to get 10% of the vote -- a threshold he might very well miss. The result will be important to the Republican Party keeping its status as a "major political party" in the state.
10:38: Rep. Joseph Cao (R) lost in a very Democratic New Orleans district today. There aren't many of these red-to-blue House districts this year, but this was one Dems expected to win.
10:40: NBC is reporting that Sen. Russ Feingold (D) really is going to lose. The polls all showed this as practically inevitable, but it still seems incomprehensible.
10:45: The guy who beat Feingold is, as regular readers know, Ron Johnson. To say he's not ready for prime time is a dramatic understatement. It's bizarre that he even ran for the U.S. Senate; that he's actually won is ridiculous.
10:50: It looks like Nikki Haley (R) has won the gubernatorial race in South Carolina after all.
10:53: It was a whole lot closer than Dems would have liked, but the AP says Rep. Rush Holt (D) has won re-election in New Jersey's 12th.
10:57: There have been some real heartbreakers tonight, but the apparent loss of Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) in Pennsylvania is just awful. Patrick was not only the first veteran of this Iraq War to get elected to Congress, he was also a forceful champion of DADT repeal.
—Steve Benen 10:00 PM
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ELECTION NIGHT, THIRD THREAD.... Third time's the charm?
9:01: MSNBC is projecting that, when all is said and done, Republicans will gain about 59 seats, 20 more than needed to get a majority.
9:04: Sen. John Thune (R) appears to have won re-election in South Dakota, which wasn't tough, since he had no opponent.
9:05: In the third Senate seat to switch from "blue" to "red," Gov. John Hoeven (R) has won Dorgan's old seat in North Dakota. This was arguably the easiest of all GOP pick-ups.
9:07: It looks like a clean sweep for Dems in New York -- Cuomo wins the gubernatorial race, while Schumer and Gillibrand both win Senate races.
9:13: Didn't Dick Morris tell us Gillibrand was in trouble? It's almost as if he doesn't know what he's talking about.
9:16: CNN is calling Texas' gubernatorial race for incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R). This is another one of those contests that could have gone the other way in a more traditional cycle.
9:18: MSNBC, CNN, and Fox are all saying what we've long suspected -- Republicans really will take back the House majority.
9:22: It looks like incumbent Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) has won re-election in Maryland. It's not a big surprise, but a while back, this one had Dems worried.
9:29: Republicans had another good day in Kansas, where Sen. Sam Brownback (R) won the gubernatorial race, and Rep. Jerry Moran (R) won the Senate race to replace him.
9:30: Insert obligatory "What's the matter with Kansas?" joke here.
9:32: Untroubled by his willingness to hire prostitutes and put an abusive criminal in charge of his office's handling of women's issues, Louisiana voters have given Sen. David Vitter (R) another term.
9:35: It looks like Rep. Roy Blunt (R) has won Missouri's U.S. Senate race. Dems recruited the candidate they wanted for this one -- Carnahans just aren't supposed to lose in Missouri -- and a year ago, it appeared very winnable. The larger winds just proved too strong.
9:40: Another tough loss for the House Dems -- Carol Shea-Porter (D) was defeated in New Hampshire's 1st. A wave brought her into Congress (in 2006), and a wave will send her back out (in 2010).
9:44: Dems are no doubt delighted to see Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) hang on to win in Indiana's 2nd. He's a Blue Dog in a tough district and he voted for the Affordable Care Act, and Republicans hoped to take his seat. They came up short.
9:48: Rep. Chet Edwards (D) of Texas is not nationally known, but I've always been a fan. He lost his re-election bid in the 17th district tonight to a guy who said he wanted to raise the retirement age, and then insisted he only made the comment because he had a headache. The GOP has been targeting Edwards for years, and they finally got him.
9:55: NBC is calling Massachusetts' gubernatorial race for incumbent Gov. Deval Patrick (D). If it holds, it's a big win for the Democratic Governors Association, and David Plouffe, who helped map Patrick's strategy. Dems really wanted this one, and given where Patrick was in the polls two years ago, it wasn't easy.
9:58: Another Blue Dog goes down, this time it's Lincoln Davis (D) in Tennessee. Check back tomorrow and I'll tell you all about the crazy guy who beat him. It's a wild story.
—Steve Benen 9:00 PM
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ELECTION NIGHT, SECOND THREAD.... Because the first thread left so many unanswered questions.
8:01: Marco Rubio (R) has won the three-way Senate contest in Florida, but for all intents and purposes, this race was over weeks ago.
8:02: The networks are calling Delaware's U.S. race for Chris Coons (D).
8:04: Looks like Kelly Ayotte (R) has won Judd Gregg's Senate seat in New Hampshire. Remember a year ago when this looked like a Dem pick-up?
8:07: AP is calling Maryland's Senate race for Barbara Mikulski (D) and Alabama's Senate race for Richard Shelby (R). Neither race was expected to be competitive, and neither race was competitive.
8:10: Here's an interesting one -- John Carney (D) appears set to win Mike Castle's (R) U.S. House seat in Delaware. The GOP hoped to keep it, but as with the Senate race in Delaware, the party base backed the fringe candidate in the primary.
8:12: AP is calling New Hampshire's gubernatorial race for incumbent Gov. John Lynch (D). This wasn't a gimmie, and Dems in the state have reason to be relieved with the outcome.
8:14: Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) wins re-election in Georgia. Another one of the night's non-competitive races.
8:16: Have any of the networks offered Christine O'Donnell her own show yet? Just wondering.
8:19: CBS is saying Rep. Tom Perriello (D) lost in Virginia's 5th. That's not a huge surprise, but Perriello is a first-class mensch, and I'm genuinely sorry to see him go.
8:22: Rick Snyder (R) appears to have won Michigan's gubernatorial race fairly easily. GOP will be thrilled, but by Republican standards, the guy really isn't a fire-breathing wingnut.
8:25: Everyone's calling for North Carolina's Senate race for incumbent Richard Burr (R). If this weren't such a strong GOP year, this was a race that could have gone the other way -- Burr just isn't especially well liked in N.C.
8:27: As Republicans position themselves to win the House, they're going to start winning some key targets. Here's a big one: Sandy Adams (R) appears to have defeated Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D) in Florida's 24th.
8:31: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) lost in Arkansas. She's the fist incumbent senator to lose, and her seat is the second to flip from "blue" to "red" tonight.
8:34: Several outlets are calling Connecticut's U.S. Senate race for Richard Blumenthal (D), over wrestling executive Linda McMahon (R). Not too long ago, Dems were really sweating this one.
8:36: Some Florida outlets are saying Rep. Alan Grayson (D) lost. No word just yet from national outlets.
8:39: The road to the GOP takeover of the House is going through Virginia. Not only did Perriello lose, which was largely expected, but Reps. Glenn Nye (D) and Rick Boucher (D) have also apparently lost, and that wasn't expected.
8:41: Several outlets are calling West Virginia's U.S. Senate race for Gov. Joe Manchin (D). If that holds true, it's pretty tough to see how Republicans re-take the Senate tonight.
8:44: Remember, two years ago, when it seemed reasonable to include Virginia in the list of "purple" states? Yeah, we should stop doing that now.
8:45: Grayson has conceded in Florida.
8:46: Beginning to think that "hicky" ad was the most consequential spot of the entire cycle.
8:50: Arkansas has quickly become a very "red" state, but it nevertheless re-elected incumbent Gov. Mike Beebe (D) without much of a fuss.
8:53: The AP is saying Sen. Tom Coburn (R) has won another term in Oklahoma. Since I'd kind of forgotten he was even up for re-election this year, I'll put in the "not a surprise" category.
8:56: It appears that Indiana Blue Dog Baron Hill (D) has lost re-election in Indiana. While he was a narrow underdog for re-election, he appears to be getting trounced, which would appear to be a bad sign for Democratic efforts overall. (Indiana's 9th is one of those "bellwether" districts.)
8:59: Former congressman-turned-felon Jim Traficant worked hard to get on the ballot in Ohio, but he won't be "beamed" back to Congress. I'm glad.
—Steve Benen 8:00 PM
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ELECTION NIGHT, FIRST THREAD.... And so it begins...
7:03: It looks like some news outlets are already calling Kentucky's U.S. Senate race for right-wing ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R), and Indiana's U.S. Senate race for corporate lobbyist Dan Coats (R). Neither result is a surprise.
7:05: More U.S. House races called: Indiana's 5th, Indiana's 6th, and Kentucky's 5th. All are safe "red" seats, all have been called for Republicans; and none of this is even remotely surprising.
7:11: Two races to keep an eye on at this early hour are Baron Hill's (D) race in Indiana's 9th, and Ben Chandler's (D) in Kentucky's 6th. Both are centrist Dems in "red" districts, and if both lose, it may be evidence of a catastrophic night for Democrats. Something to keep an eye on.
7:15: We'll be hearing plenty about this tonight and tomorrow, but CNN has a report on an interesting tidbit from the exit polls: 43% of today's voters have a favorable opinion of Democrats, while 41% have a favorable opinion of Republicans. America is poised to replace an unpopular party with an even more unpopular party. Is there any modern precedent for such a result?
7:17: The AP is calling South Carolina's U.S. Senate race for Jim DeMint (R) and Vermont's U.S. Senate race for Pat Leahy (D). These are two of the safest incumbents in the country.
7:21: Maybe it's just me, but I still find it odd that Kentucky would elect to the U.S. Senate an odd, self-accredited ophthalmologist who doesn't know much about public policy, the state he lives in, or even his own political ideology. Sure, we knew he'd win, but that doesn't make this any less bizarre.
7:25: Indiana will replace Evan Bayh (D) with an old, wealthy Washington insider, who left Indiana more than a decade ago, and who's spent several years as a corporate lobbyist. This, of course, is evidence of the public's desire for a fresh, new perspective in Congress, with senators who can relate to regular people.
7:33: Multiple outlets are calling Ohio's U.S. Senate race for Rob Portman (R). Another expected result.
7:38: Way back when -- say, a year ago -- I thought Portman might have real trouble in Ohio. He didn't just occasionally vote for the Bush agenda that did so much damage to Ohio, Portman's most recent experience in government was serving as Bush's budget director. When we consider an era in which the Republicans turned huge surpluses into massive deficits, Portman was at the center of the policymaking process. For that matter, he was Bush's trade rep, in a state where Bush's trade policies aren't exactly popular. Now, he'll be a U.S. senator. Hmm.
7:47: It looks like Marcy Kaptur (D) won, as expected, in Ohio's 9th. That's the race that got interesting when we learned that her Republican opponent spent his weekends dressing up like a Nazi -- just for fun.
7:55: Looks like John Yarmuth (D) will hang onto his seat in Kentucky's 3rd. This was one of those keep-an-eye-on races -- if Yarmuth lost, it made the likelihood of a catastrophic, run-for-your-life night much more likely. But according to the AP and others, he's won re-election.
—Steve Benen 7:00 PM
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TUESDAY'S MINI-REPORT.... Today's edition of quick hits:
* The deadliest attacks in Baghdad in months: "Insurgents unleashed a deadly series of coordinated attacks in Iraq's capital on Tuesday night, setting off more than a dozen bombs and demonstrating their ability to upend the government's measures to secure the country's largest and most important city. At least 63 people were killed and more than 280 were wounded, government officials said."
* The investigation into last week's terrorist plot continues: "American intelligence officials in September intercepted several packages containing books, papers, CDs and other household items shipped to Chicago from Yemen and considered the possibility that the parcels might be a test run for a terrorist attack, two officials said Monday night."
* BP's bottom line: "BP lifted its estimate of the likely cost of its Gulf of Mexico oil spill to $40 billion on Tuesday, denting profits, but its underlying performance beat all expectations on higher refining margins and a lower tax rate."
* I still have no idea what ABC News was thinking inviting Andrew Breitbart to help with its election coverage, but the fiasco came to an end this afternoon when the network un-invited the right-wing activist.
* While the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals considers the constitutionality of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell," the existing law will remain in place. (Of course, the Senate will still have a chance to put things right in the lame-duck session. We just need a couple of GOP votes to overcome the Republican filibuster.)
* GM continues to pay us back.
* Thanks to the Affordable Care Act, there's been a big boost in the number of small businesses that are offering health coverage to their workers.
* It's been that kind of year: "Rep. Tom Perriello's Charlottesville, Va., office was vandalized last night -- and the vandal posted a sign for the Democrat's opponent, Republican Robert Hurt, outside the building."
* If the election results go as expected, there will be "less money for things like Pell grants, education loans, and research funding."
* Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) joins the "we can't compromise" camp. What a guy.
* Author Curtis Sittenfeld explains why "still adores President Obama."
* And finally, just a quick housekeeping note. I'm taking a break now to eat dinner and catch my breath, but I'll be back at my desk in a bit and will be posting tonight as election results come in. See you then.
Anything to add? Consider this an open thread.
—Steve Benen 5:30 PM
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PROBABLY NOT THE MOST SELF-AWARE CRITICISM OF THE DAY.... Sen. John McCain (R) is up for re-election in Arizona today, but unconcerned about the outcome, he has the time to head to Nevada to support extremist GOP nominee Sharron Angle.
Of particular interest, though, was McCain blasting Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) for his DC-area living accommodations.
On election day, McCain told the crowd: "We are going to kick Harry Reid out of his penthouse at the Ritz-Carlton and send him back to [his hometown of] Searchlight!"
Um, John? In 2008, you owned so many homes around the world that you lost track of the total number.
Is the Ritz-Carlton "penthouse" line of attack really the smartest move?
—Steve Benen 4:50 PM
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BACHMANN TO JOIN GOP LEADERSHIP?.... If, as expected, the House majority changes hands, a dizzying game of musical chairs will commence, with both caucuses putting together leadership teams. This is true of Democrats -- especially if Speaker Pelosi leaves Congress -- but also of Republicans.
The current GOP leadership team features John Boehner as Minority Leader, Eric Cantor as Minority Whip, and Mike Pence as Conference Chairman. Boehner, if all goes according to plan, will be Speaker, with Cantor as Majority Leader. Pence, however, appears likely to give up his post in order to run for president (yes, of the United States), leaving two vacancies in the new majority's leadership -- Whip and Conference Chair.
And guess who has her eyes on the latter.
Major Republican gains today are likely to produce some entertaining leadership and policy battles down the road, as the conservative wing -- emboldened by the election results -- asserts its thumbprint on the party's image.
How much intransigence there will be among the Tea Party sect will ultimately be determined by the ability of GOP leadership to satisfy their demands. But already, the possibility for friction is emerging. On Tuesday, Rep. Michele Bachmann, one of the more eccentric members of the Republican Party, put out feelers that she would like to assume the leadership role likely to be vacated by Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.).
It's probably worth noting, just for the record, that Michele Bachmann appears to be a crazy person. We are, after all, talking about a lawmaker who thinks FDR passed "Hoot-Smalley" and caused the Depression. She argued a bipartisan national service bill might lead to "re-education camps." She doesn't know what a global reserve currency is, so she keeps ranting about "one-world currency." She thinks the U.S. Census could lead to "internment camps." She recently labeled school medical clinics as "sex clinics" (twice). She also recently urged her supporters to slit their wrists.
Bachmann, in other words, is mad as a hatter. And in a few months, she might very well be a member of the House majority's leadership team.
—Steve Benen 4:15 PM
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ABOUT THAT FRANKEN TALKING POINT.... The U.S. Senate race in Minnesota two years ago was one of the closest statewide contests in American history, with Al Franken (D) edging past Norm Coleman (R) by 312 vote out of more than 2.9 million cast.
Republicans would still like the public to believe that Franken did not earn that victory, all evidence to the contrary notwithstanding. In fact, the Republican National Committee recently launched NoMoreFrankens.com, which not only said Franken relied on "liberal shadow organizations" and "illegal votes of convicted felons" to win, but also alleged that Democrats are poised to use similar imaginary tactics this year. Naturally, the RNC's gambit is a fundraising scheme -- pony up a check, and Republican lawyers will make sure there are "no more Frankens."
It's no doubt difficult to come up short in a nail-biter, but this continues to be pretty silly. Three separate courts considered the Franken-Coleman dispute, and all three were unanimous -- more voters backed Franken. Of the 12 judges who heard arguments, half were appointed by Republican governors.
As for the fraud allegations, no less an authority an Norm Coleman's own lawyer conceded that there was no fraud in the election or recount.
Journalist Jay Weiner, who covered the Franken-Coleman case as closely as anyone, published an item the other day that helped set the record straight. Of particular interest were the allegations of a far-right outfit called Minnesota Majority, which insisted that thousands of Minnesota felons cast ballots in the 2008 election.
Not so, said the county prosecutors who examined the Minnesota Majority's lists. So far, in the state's largest counties, which include Minneapolis and St. Paul, a total of about 80 felons who are still on probation and who are barred from voting in Minnesota, have been charged. Not all have been convicted. Across the state, there are handfuls more, it seems, not hundreds.
Franken won by 312 votes. There's no indication there were anywhere near that many who may have registered or voted illegally. Plus, what makes the Republicans think felons only vote for Democrats? In the first such case revealed about the 2008 election, the illegal voter admitted to casting his vote for Coleman.
There's obviously no way to know yet whether we'll see any statewide recounts this year, but if you hear anyone from the "No More Frankens" crowd piping up, remember, these guys are spinning a nonsensical tale.
—Steve Benen 3:50 PM
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A MEDIA STRATEGY LIKE NO OTHER, CONT'D.... Following up on an item from last week, even in a year in which GOP candidates are avoiding journalists in ways with no modern precedent, Nevada's Sharron Angle is unique.
Angle has said, more than once, that she'll answer reporters' policy questions after the election, but not before. There have been instances in which she's literally refused to even acknowledge reporters' existence, and has conceded she only wants to talk to media outlets that will let her beg for cash on the air. In August, Angle boasted of a media manipulation strategy that pushes journalists "to ask the questions we want to answer so that they report the news the way we want it to be reported." She's even taken to using decoys to fool reporters covering her campaign.
This came to a head late last week when a reporter from Las Vegas' CBS affiliate, after being turned down for an interview, tried to ask the extremist candidate at an airport about foreign policy and national security policy. Angle not only refused to answer any questions, her campaign announced soon after that the CBS affiliate would be prohibited from entering Angle's election night festivities.
Today, Greg Sargent reports on Angle's explanation for all of this.
A perfect coda to the Nevada Senate race: In a radio interview this morning, Sharron Angle blamed the media for her campaign's decision to shut out reporters, slamming the press as "unprofessional" and adding that she thinks candidates should teach the media a "lesson" whenever they have the "opportunity."
Angle also described that recent episode where a reporter tried to ask her questions in an airport as "an ordeal."
Oh, poor muffin. A candidate for the U.S. Senate was asked a question about Nevadans serving in two wars. She couldn't address the subject at all, and is now complaining that the questions themselves represent an "ordeal."
Maybe if Angle would agree to tell voters about her issue positions, reporters wouldn't have to ask at the airport -- but this candidate has refused requests for interviews.
This morning, she went on to insist that "we need to bring back the professionalism into reporting." First, it's not up to candidates to dictate journalistic standards. Second, when a U.S. Senate candidate who's raised the specter of an armed insurrection against the United States government wants to talk about "professionalism," we've clearly entered the realm of farce.
—Steve Benen 3:00 PM
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QUOTE OF THE DAY.... David Brooks noted in passing this morning, "Tea Party hype notwithstanding, most leading G.O.P. candidates either served in state legislatures or previously in Washington."
A Politico report tried to quantify that a bit, analyzing "the top candidates in 20 open seats where Republicans are expected to replace retiring members and the 50 closest House races." It found that "out of the 70 potential GOP freshmen, two-thirds will come to Washington with political experience."
House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), the would-be Speaker, offered a different assessment:
"The biggest thing that stands out to me is how many of our new members are ready, willing and able to make tough choices. Like me, these guys -- and women -- aren't professional politicians. They're small-business people and veterans.... People who looked up at what was happening to their country and said, 'Stop!'" [emphasis added]
I don't mean to sound picky, but John Boehner presenting himself as someone who isn't a "professional politician" is one of the more ridiculous things we'll hear today -- and believe me, we're going to hear a lot of nonsense today.
Look, I realize that "professional politician" sounds awful in the minds of many Americans, and Boehner wants to distance himself from the label. But the guy first entered elected public service nearly three decades ago. He was elected to Ohio's state legislature 26 years ago, and served three terms.
Twenty years ago, Boehner was elected to Congress, where he's served in multiple leadership roles. In a few months, he's very likely to become Speaker of the House -- the most powerful position in the legislative branch of government, becoming the lead politician in a chamber filled with other politicians.
If John Boehner isn't a "professional politician," the phrase has no meaning. The man has spent the vast majority of his adult life seeking and winning political offices.
If he's not a "professional politician," who is?
—Steve Benen 2:00 PM
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CORNYN OFFERS WELCOME MAT FOR PARTY-SWITCHERS.... Most prognosticators believe Republicans will pick up a whole lot of U.S. Senate seats today, but not the 10 they need to claim a majority. That doesn't mean it won't happen, but not even GOP leaders seem to think it's possible.
But if Republicans end up with a caucus of 48 or 49 members, don't be too surprised if they start looking for party-switchers across the aisle. Indeed, some of this has already started.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said Senate Republicans would "welcome" any Democrats who wish to switch parties and caucus with the GOP.
Cornyn, the head of Senate Republicans' campaign efforts, floated the possibility that the GOP might target Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.), an Independent who caucuses with Democrats, or another Democratic senator if Republicans come close to winning a majority but fall short.
"I think he votes like a Republican on those areas, and we would certainly welcome him or any other Democrat who wants to switch sides of the aisle and caucus with us," Cornyn said of Lieberman during an Election Day appearance on Fox News.
Other potential targets, according to the report from The Hill, are Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.), or perhaps West Virginia's Joe Manchin (D), should he win today.
It's hard to guess what members like these might do, though I'd note that Ben Nelson, as recently as August, said he's not leaving the Democratic Party. Lieberman hasn't said much on the subject, and as far as I can tell, Pryor and Manchin haven't even been asked.
That said, it's probably worth keeping an eye on, especially if Cornyn & Co. get close enough to a majority to make this kind of outreach wildly important.
And just as a refresher, we talked a month ago about a similar scheme that's been in the works among House Republicans, but that would only be relevant if the GOP failed to get a net gain of 39 seats today, and few observers, if any, think they'll come up short.
—Steve Benen 1:25 PM
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HOPE AND CASH.... House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) apparently has a stump speech with a favorite quip.
At each stop he draws on nostalgia for the Republican glory days of the 1980s, by telling the same joke. "Remember when Ronald Reagan was president," he said. "We had Bob Hope. We had Johnny Cash. Think about where we are today. We have got President Obama. But we have no hope and we have no cash." It draws hoots of laughter and applause every time.
As it turns out, Johnny Cash's daughter, singer and author Rosanne Cash, finds it far less amusing.
"John Boehner: Stop using my dad's name as a punchline, you asshat."
The amusing qualities of the exchange notwithstanding, Boehner's little attempt at humor got me thinking. At the risk of taking a joke too seriously -- we might have more "cash" if Boehner, Bush, and their buddies hadn't failed so spectacularly -- I do, actually, "remember when Ronald Reagan was president."
In fact, at this point in Reagan's presidency, the then-president's approval rating had dropped to the low 40s, unemployment was nearly 11%, and Republicans were already talking publicly about pleading with Reagan not to seek a second term.
Steve Kornacki recently noted that after the '82 midterms, "some outspoken conservatives even demanded -- publicly -- that [Reagan] be challenged in the '84 primaries if he went ahead and ran." Then-Sen. Bob Packwood (R-Ore.) even went to New Hampshire in late '82 to dip his toe in the presidential primary waters. Congressional Republicans, who'd avoided Reagan during the midterms, "began charting a course independent of the Reagan White House."
"Remember when Ronald Reagan was president"? Sure. But does Boehner?
—Steve Benen 12:30 PM
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TUESDAY'S CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP.... Today's installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn't necessarily generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:
* Nearly all of the prognosticators are making the same predictions about tonight, but Nate Silver notes five reasons Republicans may do even better than expected tonight. Of course, there are also five reasons Democrats might exceed expectations.
* Predicting the outcome of Alaska's U.S. Senate race is pretty much impossible at this point, with a new Hays Research poll showing Joe Miller (R) in the lead with 27%, Scott McAdams (D) second at 26%, "another candidate you have to write in" at 25%, and a whole lot of undecided folks. Given the time it will take to consider the Lisa Murkowski write-in votes, I've heard rumors it could take weeks, if not months, to know the outcome of the contest.
* In Colorado's U.S. Senate race, Ken Buck (R) is well known for his radicalism on domestic policy, but it's worth noting that he's also strikingly ignorant about foreign policy.
* In New York's gubernatorial campaign, Carl Paladino (R) recently called former Gov. George Pataki (R) a "degenerate idiot." Yesterday, Pataki endorsed Paladino anyway.
* By most measures, Republicans will take several dozen House seats currently held by Democrats. But are there any "red" House seats that might flip to "blue"? Eric Kleefeld notes the handful of possibilities.
* According to research conducted by the Pew Forum's Project for Excellence in Journalism, the political candidate who received more media attention than any other is ... Delaware's Christine O'Donnell (R). In fact, O'Donnell had far more coverage than any other candidate running in 2010.
* And in the off chance you're still not sure where to vote, here's a handy tool to find your polling location.
—Steve Benen 12:00 PM
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