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October 29, 2010
A new
Dittman Research poll in Alaska shows Sen. Lisa Murkowski leading Joe Miller (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 37% to 27%, with Scott McAdams (D) in third place with 23%. Another 13% chose other candidates or were undecided.
"Replicating the write-in process in a phone survey can be difficult, but the technique used by pollster Dave Dittman is unique to most public polls of the race. Respondents are first asked an open-ended question about their vote preference, and their choice of candidate is recorded. If the respondent is unable to make a choice, he or she is read the names of the candidates on the ballot, with the option of a write-in candidate. In order to choose Murkowski, the respondent must choose the write-in option and provide her name."
Gawker explains the rationale behind publishing an anonymous account of a politician's
one-night stand:
"Christine O'Donnell is seeking federal office based in part on her self-generated, and carefully tended, image as a sexually chaste woman. She lies about who she is; she tells that lie in service of an attempt to impose her private sexual values on her fellow citizens; and she's running for Senate. We thought information documenting that lie -- that O'Donnell does not live a chaste life as she defines the word, and in fact hops into bed, naked and drunk, with men that she's just met -- was of interest to our readers."
Jonathan Chait notes that while Democrats are slated to lose a record number of seats in the House this cycle, it's important to distinguish between those seats that Democrats are losing because of "bad messaging or wimpy policies or rampaging socialism" and those that they would have lost after the major gains in 2006 and 2008.
He looks at an election model by political scientist Douglass Hibbs that accounts for factors like the presence of a midterm election, the number of seats held by the incumbent party and personal income growth, but not presidential approval, and concludes that the "sort of result we would expect if the president's policies and political strategy made no difference at all" comes to a 45 seat loss for Democrats.
An enthusiastic student gets a
hilarious lesson in pursuing a Ph.D. that he may never forget.
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A new
Public Policy Polling survey in New Hampshire shows Kelly Ayotte (R) well ahead of Paul Hodes (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 56% to 41%.
Extraordinary finding: "Ayotte has rebounded strongly from a turbulent primary season that saw her favorability numbers decline precipitously. 57% of voters have a favorable opinion of her to only 34% with a negative one. That +23 net favorability represents a 35 point improvement from early September, right before the primary, when her standing was at -12 with 47% of voters seeing her negatively to only 35% with a positive opinion."
Reason: "If anonymous political speech, the other widely decried villain of this political season, helped found the United States, attack ads are as American as apple pie. If you fancy yourself a patriot or a history buff, you will most certainly approve
this message, which is taken from statements made by, for, and against the nation's founders."
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Jennifer Duffy notes something that may be interesting to
Political Wire readers but could go unnoticed by the majority of Election Night television viewers.
"Starting Tuesday night, the results of statewide races will be reported by giving the percentage of 'expected vote.' The votes reported at the state level at any given time will be divided by the estimate of the total votes that will be cast in the state to come up with the percentage of expected votes."
The reason? "'Percentage of precincts reporting' is no longer accurate because the increase in early and absentee voting can provide a skewed picture of how much of the vote has actually been counted."
A new
Rasmussen survey in Pennsylvania shows Pat Toomey (R) leading Rep. Joe Sestak (D) for U.S. Senate, 50% to 46%.
The recent tightening of the race comes from an increase in support for Sestak, while Toomey's support remains fairly steady. Sestak's support is now at its highest level since mid-May.
A new
Mason-Dixon poll in Florida shows that Marco Rubio (R) has built a "commanding and insurmountable" lead in the U.S. Senate contest.
Rubio leads with 45%, followed by Gov. Charlie Crist (I) at 28% and Meek at 21% with just 6% still undecided.
Said pollster Brad Coker: "There is simply no mathematical formula by which Crist or Meek can approach Rubio's 45 percent support level."
A new
ABC News/Washington Post poll finds 67% of registered voters think Sarah Palin is unqualified to be president, while just 27% see her as qualified.
Furthermore, Palin "appears to have gained little luster from the success of the Tea Party political movement with which she'd aligned: Just 39% of registered voters see her favorably, the most basic measure of a public figure's popularity. That's essentially the same as her lows, 37%, last winter and spring."
With a week to go before the election, candidate Keith Nabours placed a half-page ad in the
Sabine County Reporter which was supposed to say, "There is a way to achieve economic prosperity without raising your taxes,"
KTRE reports.
Unfortunately, someone at the newspaper inserted the word "no" into the copy and changed it's meaning completely. The ad now reads, "There's no way to achieve economic prosperity without raising your taxes."
A correction was made online, but the next newspaper doesn't come out until after next Tuesday's election.
A new
Monmouth University Poll in Delaware finds Christine O'Donnell (R) has narrowed Chris Coons' (D) lead in the U.S. Senate race from 19 points to 10 points, 51% to 41%.
Said pollster Patrick Murray: "While Coons still has the advantage, it has to be uncomfortable knowing that O'Donnell was able to shave 9 points off his lead in just two weeks. The interesting thing is that while her vote total has risen, the majority of Delaware voters still say she is unqualified for the post."
Interesting side note: This poll was conducted prior to the publication of a story on O'Donnell's
personal life that created a backlash of sympathy for her.
Despite an historic list of legislative accomplishments, a new
Gallup Poll finds 37% of Americans say Congress has accomplished less this year than in the past few years while just 23% say it has accomplished more.
"This question is particularly relevant this year because the current Democratically controlled Congress has passed a series of high-profile legislative bills, including the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, and others. Nevertheless, the large majority of Americans do not perceive that what Congress has accomplished is more than it has done in previous years."
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The Louisiana U.S. Senate debate got heated last night as challenger Charlie Melancon (D) accused Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) of breaking the law by seeing a prostitute, the
New Orleans Times-Picayune reports.
Said Melancon: "David, you never had family values. You've sinned, you've lied, you've broken the law, you've embarrassed the state -- yet you've not hinted once that you think you should step down."
However, Vitter "refused to go beyond his earlier statements about the D.C. Madam and said he believes he has been forgiven by his family and 'my God' ... and suggested that it's only the media and 'political hacks' who continue to dwell on the topic."
Smart Politics finds that there are more third party and independent candidacies this year than in any midterm election since 1934. In total, there are 443 such candidates on ballots across the nation, up 42.4% from 2008 and 56.5% from the last midterm election in 2006.
Just hours before the final deadline, more than 100 Alaskans came out to file as write-in candidates in an effort to thwart Sen. Lisa Murkowski's bid to retain her Senate seat,
Politico reports.
"The move by the new Senate hopefuls was prompted by a recent decision by the Alaska Supreme Court paving the way for election officials to hand out lists of write-in candidates at polling locations... The high court's decision was initially considered a boost to Murkowski's campaign in the competitive race among her, Republican Joe Miller and Democrat Scott McAdams. The influx of write-in candidates who would join Murkowski on that list, however, only stands to hurt her candidacy."
The latest
Morning Call/Muhlenberg tracking poll finds Pat Toomey (R) still leading Rep. Joe Sestak in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 42% with 12% still undecided.
A new
Suffolk University poll in Massachusetts shows Gov. Deval Patrick (D) continuing to lead Charlie Baker (R) in his re-electiion race, 46% to 39%, with independent candidate Tim Cahill (I) way back at just 8%.
Said pollster David Paleologos: "There have been shifts under the surface even though Deval Patrick continues to lead. Since our last poll, Baker gained ground among younger voters but lost some among middle-age voters; Baker improved in Suffolk County but lost some of his lead in southeastern Mass; and Baker gained further among men, but lost further among women."
A new
SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota shows a much closer race for governor than many other recent polls: Mark Dayton (D) barely edges Tom Emmer (R), 39% to 38%, with independent candidate Tom Horner (I) at 13%.
With Democrats likely to keep the Senate and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)
trailing in most polls,
Maggie Haberman restarts the buzz about who might replace Reid in the next Congress.
"The sense that Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has the edge to become the next majority leader is hardening in New York and Washington... Among the factors working in Schumer's favor are that he has developed respect among his colleagues as a political practitioner... Another Democratic insider suggested what is needed for the Democrats in the Senate now is a 'war-time consigliere,' and that that an asset in Schumer's column."
"I guarantee you that I did not say I am getting out of the race."
-- Rep. Kendick Meek (D-FL), in an interview with
ABC News, denying a
report that he agreed to drop out of the Florida U.S. Senate race.
A
Bloomberg National Poll finds that by a two-to-one margin, likely voters in the midterm elections think taxes have gone up, the economy has shrunk, and the billions lent to banks as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program won't be recovered.
The facts: The Obama administration cut taxes for middle-class Americans, has overseen an economy that has grown for the past four quarters and expects to make a profit on the hundreds of billions of dollars spent to rescue Wall Street banks.
Said pollster Ann Selzer: "The public view of the economy is at odds with the facts, and the blame has to go to the Democrats. It does not matter much if you make change, if you do not communicate change."
A new
Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada shows Sharron Angle (R) leading Sen. Harry Reid (D) by 4 points, 49% to 45%.
The findings match two other post-debate polls in the race and show momentum for Angle, who two weeks ago edged out Reid, 47 percent to 45 percent, in the last Mason-Dixon survey.
Said pollster Brad Coker: "Reid just can't get much above 45 percent, and she's carrying the independents. I haven't seen a poll showing him up since the debate. That might have been when things started to lock in. I think the odds are pretty good that Angle's going to win."
A new
Merriman River Group poll in Connecticut shows Richard Blumenthal (D) maintains a solid lead over Linda McMahon (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 52% to 44%.
Key finding: McMahon trails by significant margins among female voters.
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