Unlike the levees breaking, I think everyone anticipated this:

Fox 29 News spotted Tuesday a member of the New Black Panther Party standing outside of a local polling place where voter intimidation was reported two years ago.

The man was seen outside the polling place in North Philadelphia was wearing a pin that indicated his party affiliation, along with a black hat, sunglasses and leather coat. [...]

The man seen at the same polling place Tuesday would not answer questions posed by Fox 29 News but was apparently working at the polls as a volunteer and greeting voters.

A check with Philadelphia election officials revealed no voter intimidation reports at the polling location this time.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who couldn't remember how many houses he owned, on the latest leg of his bitter old man tour:

... John McCain, campaigning in Nevada for the Tea Partier Sharron Angle, mock her opponent, Harry Reid, for – and please, make sure you're sitting down – residing in fancy apartments. On election day, McCain told the crowd: "We are going to kick Harry Reid out of his penthouse at the Ritz-Carlton and send him back to [his hometown of] Searchlight!"

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is inviting Democrats to join his party:

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said Senate Republicans would "welcome" any Democrats who wish to switch parties and caucus with the GOP.

Cornyn, the head of Senate Republicans' campaign efforts, floated the possibility that the GOP might target Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.), an Independent who caucuses with Democrats, or another Democratic senator if Republicans come close to winning a majority but fall short.

Cue the outrage -- via Greg Sargent at The Plum Line:

ABC News sends over the letter that Andrew Morse, the chief of their digital division, has sent to Andrew Breitbart, pulling the plug on their much-discussed, widely-parsed-over invitation for him to join in their election night coverage:

Dear Mr. Breitbart,

We have spent the past several days trying to make clear to you your limited role as a participant in our digital town hall to be streamed on ABCNews.com and Facebook. The post on your blog last Friday created a widespread impression that you would be analyzing the election on ABC News. We made it as clear as possible as quickly as possible that you had been invited along with numerous others to participate in our digital town hall. Instead of clarifying your role, you posted a blog on Sunday evening in which you continued to claim a bigger role in our coverage. As we are still unable to agree on your role, we feel it best for you not to participate.

What's happening in election news in your corner of the world?

They really do deserve each other.

This is change you can believe in. Just two years ago, Tom Tancredo was a veritable outcast of the Republican Party. Karl Rove was screaming at him, John McCain scoffed at him, GOP pollsters viewed him as a saboteur within their midst. Tancredo's one issue--a near-apocalyptic warning about immigrant-driven dilution of American culture--was seen as radioactive among the Republican elite.

And now, Sarah Palin, who is as big a leader in Republican politics as there is, has endorsed Tancredo as a protest candidate in the Colorado governor's race, running on the American Constitution Party.

By the way, that means she's apparently A-Okay with the Colorado Republican Party being a minor party in the next two elections, which will happen if the actual Republican candidate, Dan Maes, doesn't get at least 10 percent of the vote today.

Some pre-results fun:

At each stop he draws on nostalgia for the Republican glory days of the 1980s, by telling the same joke. “Remember when Ronald Reagan was president,” he said. “We had Bob Hope. We had Johnny Cash. Think about where we are today. We have got President Obama. But we have no hope and we have no cash.” It draws hoots of laughter and applause every time.

Rosanne Cash responds

Here's a little taste for those too young to remember Johnny Cash -- and just for fun, replace San Quentin with John Boehner in the song, and then get busy and get out the vote.

• I know you all voted. But have you called all your friends and family and begged them to vote? Drag them to the polls if you have to. There isn't a stronger form of GOTV than the pressure from friends and family.
• Wanna keep tabs on election results? Want to know what races to look for?

  Swing State Project has a kick ass map.

  Our own Steve Singiser did an hour-by-hour guide on Sunday.

  Nate Silver has his own guide.

• Benen:

  [A]t this point in Reagan's presidency, the then-president's approval rating had dropped to the low 40s, unemployment was nearly 11%, and Republicans were already talking publicly about pleading with Reagan not to seek a second term.

  Steve Kornacki recently noted that after the '82 midterms, "some outspoken conservatives even demanded -- publicly -- that [Reagan] be challenged in the '84 primaries if he went ahead and ran." Then-Sen. Bob Packwood (R-Ore.) even went to New Hampshire in late '82 to dip his toe in the presidential primary waters. Congressional Republicans, who'd avoided Reagan during the midterms, "began charting a course independent of the Reagan White House."

  "Remember when Ronald Reagan was president"? Sure. But does Boehner?

• Putting GOP gains in the House in context:

  In the 49 House election cycles since the membership of the chamber was fixed at 435 Representatives, there have been a total of seven elections, or 14 percent, in which more than 60 seats have flipped from one party to the other. (1948, 1938, 1932, 1922, 1920, 1914, and 1912.) Net gains actually topped 70 seats in four elections, or 8 percent of the time. (1948, 1938, 1932, and 1922.)

  During this same time period, net gains have been greater than 48 seats in 12 election cycles, or 24 percent of the time. (1994, 1974, 1958, 1948, 1946, 1938, 1932, 1930, 1922, 1920, 1914, and 1912.) On two more occasions, one party netted a gain of 47 seats. (1966 and 1942.) Thus in well over one quarter of House elections -- 29 percent, to be precise -- one party has picked up about as many seats as the Republicans are projected by some to win this fall.

• Did you know that John Boehner doesn't consider himself a "professional politician"? Three decades in elected officie apparently don't count.
• How about something non-political? Like, what is life like aboard the international space station?

  The onslaught of apparent days and nights would play havoc with astronauts' body clocks, so a shutters-down and bedtime schedule is imposed by mission controllers. Each of the crew has a closet-like cabin where they can hook a sleeping bag to the wall and settle down for the night. Some strap pillows to their heads to make it feel more like lying down. The lights don't go out completely, though. People dozing in orbit see streaks and bursts of bright colour caused by high-energy cosmic rays painlessly slamming into their retinas. Fans and air filters add to the distractions, so some astronauts wear ear plugs to block out the constant hum.

• Heritage Foundation tells us how to cut $343 billion from the deficit. Turns out, you shut down pretty much the entire federal government except the Department of Defense, which doesn't give up a dime. And even then, they admit it wouldn't really cut $343 billion, and that would still only be a third of the deficit.  
• My girl's a Republican:

  Actually, mine isn't. She's a wise Latina.

Remember, these are anecdotes, some of it might even be erroneous! So try not to use them to confirm your hopes or fears. They are what they are.

In Kentucky, I've heard reports from both the Conway campaign and DFA field organizers that turnout is much higher than expected statewide, but it's good in Louisville, and at presidential levels in Lexington. A local radio station confirms that the state's best turnout is in those two big urban areas. And there's this:

In Fayette County, several polls had to replace malfunctioning voting machines. in one precinct, Meadowthorpe, both machines had to be replaced so there was no voting for about 45 minutes.

"Everything was down at Meadowthorpe," said Kitty Ware, spokeswoman for the Fayette County Clerk's office.

Machines also had to be replaced at Sayre Village, Boone Station and Stone precincts, Ware said. And at least five precincts called for an extra machine because of long lines of voters.

Conway has to rock those areas if he wants to offset Rand Paul gains in the rest of the state.  And really, in this day and age, why are people still having to stand in line to vote? Vote by mail! It's great, it's democratic, it's inclusive, and it doesn't discriminate against people who live in urban areas (the ones most likely to be stuck waiting in line to vote)

For the pessimists:

A key endangered Democratic incumbent admitted Tuesday that "turnout isn’t where we need it to be" if he's to win re-election.

Rep. Steve Kagen's (D-Wis.) campaign manager emailed supporters to warn them that turnout numbers were flagging, and that they needed more voters to make their way to the polls.

"We have just been going over the morning voting numbers – and turnout isn’t where we need it to be in our strong areas," campaign manager Julie Heun wrote in an email. "This race is going to be a squeaker - and every vote will count."

GOTV the fuck out of the day!

Ben Smith has fodder for both the pessimists and the optimists.

A tweet from the Oregon division of elections:

As of 10:30 this morning, 61% of Republicans, 57% of Democrats, and 38% of those Not Affiliated with any party have returned their ballots.

Come on, Oregon Dems, pick it up!

St Louis, MO:

St. Louis County's Democratic elections director, reports voting is a bit heavier than expected this morning -- most notably in western and northern parts of the county.

(West county is Republican territory, while north county is heavily Democratic.)

Update: And more--

Colorado:

Republicans are boasting an early vote advantage in Colorado's nail-biter Senate race.

But a small anecdote has Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet's campaign optimistic.

Colorado State University, located in Ft. Collins, ran out of ballots this morning, according to Bennet spokesman Trevor Kincaid. "More had to be delivered. Good sign," he e-mailed.

Nonsense, responded Ken Buck's camp.

"Voters today are standing in line in El Paso County. No lines in Denver. Good for Buck, bad for Bennet," said Buck adviser Walt Klein.

The latest tally out of Larimer County, home of Colorado State University, still shows a GOP advantage. Republicans have cast 30,701 ballots there compared with 22,449 Democratic ballots, according to figures provided to POLITICO by the Buck campaign.

Ohio:

The Ohio Democratic party say they're hitting their GOTV numbers so far today. Locked in a tight gubernatorial race, party officials say "turnout in Cuyahoga County is on track with our projections" and they claim "the Republican stronghold of Butler County is projecting turnout to be 5 points lower than 2006, when enthusiasm was on the Democratic side."

Boy, that's not even anecdotal, more like spin. But here's hoping they're right.

National:

For better or worse, the weather is always a big factor in elections. Historically, high turnout helps Democrats, mostly because many poor people (who are generally Democrats) do not have cars and have to walk to the polls. In a storm, they are less inclined to do so. However, today Democrats luck out as the weather is bright and sunny throughout much of the nation. The only stormy area is the lower Mississippi Valley, where there aren't any competitive races. Whether the lack of a meteorological storm can offset the political storm on the horizon remains to be seen, however.

What do you do after spending the better part of two years accusing the White House of politicizing the economy and playing partisan games with American businesses? Naturally, you do exactly what you had (falsely) accused the administration of doing:

Republicans have a message for the businesses that worked closely with the Obama administration over the past two years on key controversial issues: We won't forget.

Take the case of Wal-Mart, the behemoth big-box retailer that liberals have long loved to hate. Several years ago, it began to break ranks with industry groups by speaking out in favor of an increase to the minimum wage and health-care reform. And, for the first time in its history, it gave more money to Democrats than the GOP for Tuesday's elections.

The corporation's moves caught the eye of Republican Rep. Dave Camp of Michigan. During a phone call with company lobbyists last year during the fight over the health-care bill, Camp bluntly reminded Wal-Mart of its unpalatable position on the issue, according to sources familiar with the conversation.

Now, Wal-Mart's political team finds itself in an awkward position. Camp is poised to become the next chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee.

Companies that worked with the Democrats over the past two years would face a far less sympathetic audience from Republicans, who are expected to make significant gains in the midterm elections. If they gain control of Congress, party leaders have pledged to revisit the health-care bill and lower taxes for businesses.

"Some businesses joined in on the hang-me-last strategy," said Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.). "I think upon reflection, in moments of candor, they may say they were foolish to do that."

Worth remembering: the same GOP that it is now plotting to be vindictive towards companies that worked with the Obama administration was friendly and apologetic to BP when the Obama administration was working to hold it accountable for the spill in the Gulf of Mexico. And now that they think they are on their way back to power, they want to stomp on any company that didn't toe the GOP line. At least now we know what they mean when they say "don't tread on me."

Yikes. The polls haven't even closed and Republicans are already talking about shutting down government when they take over the House:

Rep. Bachus: Obama might 'force' GOP to shut down government

A top House Republican said Monday President Obama might try to force a government shutdown to hurt Republicans.

Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-Ala.), the top GOP member of the influential House Financial Services Committee, said Republicans should be prepared to be "brave" in the face of a shutdown.

“I would think when we send the spending bills to the president he will veto them, and then the hard vote will be when he sends them back and we will be faced with another situation where he will probably try to force us to shut government down and we are going to have to be brave this time," Bachus explained on the Fox Business Network.

Okay, first things first: The House can't send a spending bills to the president without approval by the Senate. If Republicans take over the House, that's just one chamber in a bicameral legislative body. And unless Republicans take over the Senate -- something that nobody thinks is likely to happen -- Bachus' scenario of sending some austerity-laden spending bill to President Obama is just a fantasy.

Second, even if Republicans do somehow take control of the Senate, and they do send a spending bill to President Obama that is so egregious that he cannot sign it, that won't cause the government to shut down. Congress can always pass a continuing resolution to keep spending at the previous year's levels while it works out a compromise with the president.

What that means is the only way government will get shut down is if Republicans proactively decide to either not raise the debt limit or they decide to not pass either a spending bill or continuing resolution that keeps the government open. President Obama is going to do everything in his power to keep government running, but if Republicans decide they want to shut it down, that's a decision they are going to have to own. They can't pass the buck and blame it on somebody else. Time for them to "man up" and take responsibility for their actions.

The Election Protection Coalition is on the job today, taking reports of voting problems and working to fix them. If you have a problem voting, whether technical--long lines, change of polling location, broken machines, registration confusion--or human--problems of voter intimidation or misinformation, aggressive challenges from poll watchers, inappropriate electioneering--you can report it to the coalition. Call 1-866-OUR-VOTE or 1-888-Ve-Y-Vota for Spanish language. You can also use text messaging or Twitter to report problems. They have volunteers across the nation, with lawyers present at election boards who can respond immediately to problems.

In a conference call this morning, the folks at Election Protection reported some of what they've been responding to in early voting and this morning, as well as problem areas they're giving extra attention. The vast majority of problems are related to election administration--polls opening late, registration confusion, poorly trained poll workers, machine malfunctions--all the things that reflect a chronic under-investment in our voting infrastructure.

They also reported some specific intimidation/suppression issues that they've already responded to and are following:

• In Minnesota, tea party related groups are expected to continue to wear buttons or stickers saying "Please ID me" (despite a judge's ruling that they couldn't). This is meant to cause confusion in pollworkers and voters who do not have to show ID in MN. There have also been reports in one precinct in MN of a disruptive poll watcher who was aggressively challenging people attempting to do same day registration.
• In Illinois in two predominately African American precincts, there are reports of every voter being challenged.
• In a Michigan precinct, a poll worker was making racist statements directed at African American and Latino voters.
• In Louisiana (particularly New Orleans), Maryland, New Hampshire and Maine, robocalls have told voters they can vote online or by telephone.
• In Kansas, voters report robocalls telling they have to have proof of home ownership in order to vote, and that they vote on Nov. 3.

In addition, Cheryl at Jack and Jill Politics is reporting that teabaggers in South Carolina are intimidating black college students at Benedict College and North Hope Center precinct at Sumter.

Texas, Arizona, Wisconsin, and parts of Chicago are getting extra attention because of past problems, and because of activities leading up to today--the flyers and promises of intimidation in Houston from the "King Street Patriots" intended to suppress minority voting, specific targeting of Latino voters in Arizona and particularly Maricopa County, plans for voter caging to disenfranchise students and minority voters in Wisconsin, and flyers saying "stop blacks from stealing the election" in Chicago.

In other words, Republicans up to their usual tricks in reinforcing their vision of democracy for white people, and Republicans, only. Again, if you experience or see any kind of hassle voting--whether logistical, mechanical, or human caused, call Election Protection at 1-866-OUR-VOTE or 1-888-Ve-Y-Vota. You can also check their live Web site to see if problems are being reported in your area.

Update: For inspiration, go read how mizzum did it.

I'll be posting links to turnout anecdotes from around the country all day.

Leheigh Valley, PA:

"For a nonpresidential election we are running above normal for this time of day," Hynes said.

That's Toomey's old district. Not good news for us.

Update: Turnout here is 3x the norm. Astronomically higher. Bethlehem mayor John Callahan is running for Congress and is from this area, so the optimists can hope this is his base turning out to vote out GOP Rep. Charlie Dent.

Update II: Dem party internals had Sestak up 47-46 in this area, and getting out Dem vote will be critical for the Senate race, as well as the Callahan-Dent house race. If you want to make GOTV calls into this district, you can contact Michael at mogorman@padems.com and he'll set you up.

St. Charles County, MO:

Voter turnout has been heavy this morning throughout the region, with a battle to replace Sen. Christopher "Kit" Bond leading the charge to the polls.

In St. Charles County, many of the precincts were reporting 200 voters by 7:30 -- 90 minutes after the polls opened.

"It's a very heavy turnout," said Rich Chrismer, director of elections in St. Charles County. He had predicted a turnout of 65 to 70 percent of the county's registered voters. Statewide, the secretary of state's office is estimating a 67 percent turnout

St. Charles is a Republican County -- McCaskill lost it 54-44 in 2006.

Minnesota:

Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie says Election Day is going "smooth as silk" with higher-than-expected voter turnout Tuesday morning.

Ritchie had predicted a turnout of 60 percent but a surge of early morning voters and good weather throughout the state had him questioning at midmorning whether that was too low.

Conventional wisdom is that in Blue states like Minnesota, higher turnout helps Democrats, since Republicans are already the most likely to turn out.

Chicago, IL:

Early turnout, a key for Democrats in a state where they enjoy a 10-point advantage over Republicans among registered voters, was mixed.

At least two precincts on Chicago’s North Side—in Lincoln Park and Uptown—were seeing heavier-than-average turnout, precinct officials said.

But two South Side precincts, not far from President Obama’s Hyde Park home, were slower. One was in Woodlawn, at the Kenneth Campbell Apartment’s cafeteria where two election judges were napping, their heads resting atop their hands on a folding table when approached by a reporter.

Election judge Kelvin Buchanan, 22 years old, said that he had yet to see the same outpouring of people as in 2008, when Mr. Obama’s presidential campaign enlivened the African-American vote.

Keep in mind, however, that Cook County rocked it in the early vote in Illinois.

Cook County is the most Democratic county in the state, and Cook County is voting at one of the highest rates of any county in the state. While only 38.5% of all registrants are from Cook County, 43.5% of all ballots cast so far are from Cook County.

Update: More turnout stories.

Milwaukee, WI:

Voting is underway as polls have opened Tuesday for people in Wisconsin to cast their ballots.

Voters have found long lines as the 2010 November elections will bring decisions in important state and federal government races.

Feingold needs massive margins in Milwaukee and Madison to survive.

Boston, Mass:

Polling stations across the state are reporting a brisk turnout for today’s election.

In Boston, more than 28,000 people had cast ballots by 9 a.m., more than 7.5 percent of all registered voters. By noon, nearly 16 percent of registered voters in Boston had cast their ballots.

Several town clerks say turnout is higher than usual.

Remember the DLC? They were the assholes that dragged the Democratic Party all the way to the Right, until a combination of the rise of the Netroots and the Dean movement provided an effective counter. It was a hard-fought battle, but we merged victories, the DLC vanquished to the margins, irrelevant and broken.

But corporate money is insidious, and they found a new vehicle to push their corrosive corporatist agenda inside the Democratic Party -- Third Way, guys who thought the DLC was too liberal and had sold out.

But unlike the DLC, these guys were smarter. They stayed low, out of the spotlight. Rather than hurl bombastic threats and attacks against progressives (which in turn gave us the ammo we needed to push back), they took congressional chiefs of staff on junkets, indoctrinating them while entertaining them. Sure, it didn't get them media attention, but it gave them something much better -- direct access to the halls of power.

Playing behind the scenes worked well for them, but they are apparently getting antsy. They want to emerge from the shadows.

The long-simmering battle between moderates and liberals for the soul of the Democratic Party is about to explode.

That presents a golden opportunity for Third Way, a five-year-old think tank that remains largely unknown outside the Beltway.

The group has spent months preparing to capitalize on this moment and take a more central role in the party.

And it’s coming down squarely on the side of centrism — and planning to vigorously challenge the left.

"The party is about to come to a major fork in the road," said Jonathan Cowan, Third Way’s president. "A left turn at this juncture is a turn toward permanent minority status."

Democrats will take heavy losses in large part because of a dispirited base, and these clowns want to double down on that strategy. Unfortunately for them, their version of corporatism will lead to a decimated conservadem ranks, as the Blue Dogs take the brunt of losses today. Serves them right for fighting back against the very things that would have improved their electoral chances -- more stimulus, a middle class tax cut, immigration reform, and so on.

But if you really want to know what Third Way is all about, just look at their Board of Trustees: 22 of the 30 come from Wall Street, including all three officers (and features the global head of equity trading at Goldman Sachs). It's nothing more than a Wall Street front group.

Their agenda can be summarized as follows:

You know, the kind of things that get Wall Street all excited.

So I look forward to them coming out of the shadows, where we can more directly engage. If there's going to be a battle for the soul of the Democratic Party, let's have it out in the open. Where people can see that the people trying to buy our democracy post-Citizens United, are also trying to buy our Democratic Party.

Listen up all you potentially undecided Alaska Dems. Here's the real Lisa Murkowski.

Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski told POLITICO unequivocally that she plans to caucus with the Republican Party if she wins her write-in campaign Tuesday.

“I have caucused with the Republicans in the past, I will be caucusing with the Republicans when I go back in January,” said Murkowski in a phone interview, responding to recent news reports speculating whether she’d buck the party, and comments Murkowski made over the weekend saying that if elected, she would represent Alaska before the Republican Party.

All that flirting around with being her own person, representing Alaska first. All a pack of lies. Murkowski's come home to the GOP. Alaska Dems need to come home to McAdams.

Make your calls in the comments. Yours don't have to be as detailed as mine!

To be clear to those who won't want to get it -- this isn't what I hope will happen, but what I fear will happen. As Nate wrote yesterday, there's sound reasons to hope for a better outcome. If I'm wrong because I was too pessimistic on Democratic chances, you won't see me crying.

So without further ado:

House: Net +49 GOP pickups

Bonus prediction -- Even if Dems narrowly hold the House, Nancy Pelosi will no longer be speaker.

Bonus prediction #2: Of those 49 seats, 26 will have been previously held by the Blue Dogs, utterly decimating their ranks.

Bonus prediction #3: Dems pick up the seats in DE-AL, IL-10, HI-01, and LA-02. We'll come depressingly close in AZ-03 -- the Quayle race.

Senate: +6 GOP pickups

I may be unreasonably bullish on Illinois, but 1) the large number of undecideds in a Democratic state should mostly come home, and 2) the Green is taking a significant amount of support in polling that I suspect will erode given the chance of giving Obama's former seat to the GOP.

Colorado is certainly still in play, though the early voting has looked shitty for us. And Nevada is certainly still in play, though the early voting there is a bit more encouraging for Dems. Either way, GOTV will be most important in these three states -- Illinois, Colorado and Nevada -- plus Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, Alaska depends on whether Democrats come home to their nominee, rather than stick with Murkowski. I've seen nothing in the polling to suggest that her 25-30 percent of Dems are moving away from her. But with national Dems engaging, and the McAdams campaign imploring Democrats to vote their values, not their fears, we have a real chance of grabbing this unlikeliest of seats. Doubtful the winner get seated before Spring 2011, though.

Governor: Net +4 GOP pickups

The GOP was looking at massive gubernatorial pickups even a month ago, but those potential gains have eroded to the point where they'll likely make their biggest gains in the Rust Belt and states that never should've had Democratic governors to begin with -- like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming.

A +4 result on this front would be a huge blow to the GOP, particularly since they were able to outspend Democrats by at least 2-1. And I doubt Republicans would cheer losing California and Florida in exchange for Wyoming and Kansas. Still, my predictions hinge on Florida and Ohio calls that are probably too optimistic.

Throw in tight races in Hawaii, Minnesota and Vermont, and we may very well see Democratic pickups relegated to a single state--California.

Howard Fineman picks up on something I've been mulling, but not quite in the same context as me:

The most powerful IED on the road ahead is timed to explode some time this spring. Last February, Congress raised the ceiling on the national debt from $12.4 trillion to $14.2 trillion. Since then, the debt has risen to $13.7 trillion -- which means Congress will have to raise it yet again within a few months.

A failure to approve one would, technically, bar the government from borrowing more money. In other words, we would not have the cash to pay our bills.

And yet Tea Party candidates and their fellow travelers in the GOP have vowed to oppose further increases in the legal debt ceiling.

Are they going to stick to that idea when faced with the reality of default?

Fineman's article approached this, and a number of other challenges in governance looming on the horizon, in terms of "booby traps" the Democrats may "leave behind" for incoming Republicans, most particularly (I presume) in the House.

But I'm thinking in terms of the Senate. And why wouldn't I? The Senate puts itself first in most things, anyway, constantly demanding the House bend to it's will, and leaning on the antiquated cloture rules to do it, insisting the House pretty much has to accept whatever the Senate hands it, since nothing else could possibly clear the 60-vote threshhold. And in the Senate, the odds are still against a Republican takeover.

Still, all signs point to the Senate Democratic caucus shrinking in the 112th Congress. And things being as they are, that's got to mean that it'll be harder than ever to get cloture on bills and nominations of all kinds. Including the always-controversial (though ordinarily non-partisan, believe it or not) bill to raise the federal debt limit.

As Fineman notes, the consequences of a failure to pass such a bill would be dire. A government shutdown. Possibly default on federal debt instruments. And hey, maybe a little global financial meltdown. You never know.

Now, consider that the debt ceiling bill, unlike the budget resolution or reconciliation bills, enjoys no statutory protection from the filibuster. Add rampant teabaggery to the mix, and you're looking at a serious situation. Fineman's thinking "booby trap," but that's only the case if Republicans take over, as may be the case in the House. In the Senate, raising the debt ceiling might still be the Democrats' responsibility. And it'll still be the prerogative of the tea-infused Republicans to make that difficult, and try to put the Senate and the administration over a barrel.

That by itself could be enough to force the leadership to attempt to pass the debt ceiling bill during the lame duck session, when there are more Democrats on hand to help out. But Republicans have been dead-set against allowing Democrats to use the lame duck session to move anything of substance, and their ability to block critical bills might even be enhanced during the lame duck -- not just because there'll be an argument to be made that significant legislation ought to be left to the newly elected Congress, but also because there could actually be more Republicans in the Senate. Don't forget: the elections in West Virginia, New York, Delaware and Illinois are technically special elections, to replace Senators Byrd, Clinton, Biden and Obama. Neither the New York or Delaware situations are likely to make a difference in this respect, though. But West Virginia and Illinois are in play, and that could mean two more Republican Senators-elect with claims on the right to be seated immediately.

For whatever reason, the Colorado Senate seat vacated by Ken Salazar and currently occupied by Michael Bennet is not being filled by a special election, though the situation is similar -- except that Beenet is seeking reelection, while Roland Burris of Illinois is not.

Anyway, waht that means for the prospects of a debt ceiling hike during the lame duck session is that there could possibly be two fewer votes over which the administration has significant sway. If Teapublicans opt to filibuster such a bill, the leadership could be left scrambling for 60 votes.

So far, at least one Republican has said he'd oppose a government shutdown, on the grounds that itd' endanger troops deployed overseas. That'd perhaps do the trick if there were 59 other votes for cloture on a debt ceiling bill, but there may not be. And it's unclear whether Isakson would feel the same way about a shutdown over the debt ceiling as he might about a shutdown stemming from the failure to pass necessary appropriations bills.

Remember, too, that although debt ceiling bills are traditionally a non-partisan affair, passed nearly unanimously, the last such increase was marked by holdouts from both sides of the aisle -- Republicans who oppose everything in general, and Democratic "budget hawks," who used the leverage created by the unusual need for cloture on a debt ceiling bill to extract President Obama's agreement to the convening of the cat food commission.

So it's by no means clear that seeking to take care of the business of the debt ceiling in the lame duck session is going to be more doable -- at least in terms of clearing the 60-vote mark -- than it's likely to be after January.

But that brings me back to the title of the post. Although it's likely that there will be even fewer Democratic Senators on hand next year than there would be in the lame duck, there's at least the possibility that the procedural rules under which the Senate would deal with a must-pass bill like the debt limit hike could be different. That's all within the power of just 51 Democrats.

And that may well be the choice facing the Senate Democratic caucus in the months leading up to January. Find the will to reform the filibuster, or face the music when it comes time to deal with the debt bill. Opinion both inside and outside the Senate is shifting rapidly toward the first option as it is. I don't think you want to walk past that opportunity, especially at the risk of finding yourself staring at option two.

Vote and then get out the vote.

I can't believe this isn't a bigger story -- apparently millionaires in Wyoming are committing medical suicide rather than knuckling under to the Socialist Democratic Party:

U.S. Rep. Cynthia Lummis says some of her Wyoming constituents are so worried about the reinstatement of federal estate taxes that they plan to discontinue dialysis and other life-extending medical treatments so they can die before Dec. 31.

And perhaps the most shocking element of this story? Rep. Lummis:

... declined to name any of the people who have made the comments.

[Such a good reminder, we're going to run it once every day until the election. Susan]

Questions:

1. What was the average monthly private sector job growth in 2008, the final year of the Bush presidency, and what has it been so far in 2010?

2. What was the Federal deficit for the last fiscal year of the Bush presidency, and what was it for the first full fiscal year of the Obama presidency?

3. What was the stock market at on the last day of the Bush presidency? What is it at today?

4. Which party's candidate for speaker will campaign this weekend with a Nazi reenactor who dressed up in a SS uniform?

Answers:

1. In 2008, we lost an average of 317,250 private sector jobs per month. In 2010, we have gained an average of 95,888 private sector jobs per month. (Source) That's a difference of nearly five million jobs between Bush's last year in office and President Obama's second year.

2. In FY2009, which began on September 1, 2008 and represents the Bush Administration's final budget, the budget deficit was $1.416 trillion. In FY2010, the first budget of the Obama Administration, the budget deficit was $1.291 trillion, a decline of $125 billion. (Source) Yes, that means President Obama has cut the deficit -- there's a long way to go, but we're in better shape now than we were under Bush and the GOP.

3. On Bush's final day in office, the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 closed at 7,949, 1,440, and 805, respectively. Today, as of 10:15AM Pacific, they are at 11,108, 2,512, and 1,183. That means since President Obama took office, the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 have increased 40%, 74%, and 47%, respectively.

4. The Republican Party, whose candidate for speaker, John Boehner, will campaign with Nazi re-enactor Rich Iott this weekend. If you need an explanation why this is offensive, you are a lost cause.

The moral of the story is this: if you vote Republican, I hope you enjoy Election Day -- because you're not going to like what comes next.

:::

This post originally appeared here on Friday, October 29.

From the GREAT STATE OF MAINE...

Random Predictions

Nevada: Harry Reid squeaks out a victory. Sharron Angle goes on to win a gold medal in the 100-meter parking lot sprint at the 2012 Olympics.

Alaska: In a stunning turnaround, Scott McAdams joins the upper chamber in Washington after Joe Miller self-destructs and Senator Murkowski's hail-Lisa pass fails when write-in voters misspell her name "Aurora Borealis." By the time he retires in 2053, McAdams is hailed as one of America's greatest senators.

Delaware: Due to a really bad case of sour grapes on the part of his opponent, Chris Coons takes the oath as the first toad to become a sitting United States senator.

California: The 70s are back, baby! Jerry Brown becomes governor and, defying the polls, pot becomes legal. Meanwhile the state's media outlets bestow their Fistful of Dollars award to Meg Whitman and beg her to run real soon for something else---anything else!!!

Kentucky: Tea Partiers publicly pee their pants over the election of Rand Paul...and then privately poop their pants thinking about what their lives will be like if he makes good on a single campaign promise.

New York: In the governor's race, the "I'll take you out'er" becomes the "I'll take you out'ee." Ain't karma a bitch, Mr. Paladino?

Illinois:  Alexi Giannoulias secures his victory over Mark Kirk when, at the last moment, he heeds a little girl's advice and glues on a Lincoln beard.

South Carolina: No one will ever know how Alvin Greene won the primary, and they'll also never know how he won the general. Once sworn in, the Senate unanimously passes his "Action Figure Enhancement Act" as a joke.  It results in a sharp drop in the unemployment rate, an increase in GDP and a worldwide rush to adopt the new Principles of Alvinomics.

Maine: Independent Eliot Cutler upsets bullheaded, potty-mouth teabagger Republican Paul LePage. The victory is fueled mostly by mild voter concerns that OH MY GOD PAUL LEPAGE COULD ACTUALLY BECOME OUR GOVERNOR AND DESTROY US ALL!!!!

The House Blue Dog Coalition will have trouble rounding up a fourth for their lunchtime bridge game.

And all across America, two million Black Panthers led by Shirley Sherrod will be at each polling place intimidating Republican voters with flame throwers and pipe wrenches. Or at least that's what it'll look like when Andrew Breitbart gets out of the editing room.

Remember my friend: no matter what happens here today---whether we win or lose or tie---I know I can always count on you. Even if the right-wingers end up drenching the country in gloatspittle (Ooh---dibs!!!), we will get through this day together. For you are and shall always be my trusted, faithful and fully-stocked liquor cabinet. {{{Hug}}}

Cheers and Jeers starts in There's Moreville... [Swoosh!!] RIGHTNOW! [Gong!!]