Tonight's Rescue Rangers are Alfonso Nevarez, jlms qkw, vcmvo2, YatPundit, and ybruti, who also edited .

• Beginning with the discovery of prebiotic molecules in outer space, Tom Ball connects the Democratic Future, Black Holes, and Obama Polls. (ybruti)
• Rich in PA has some ideas on how we can take back the momentum with Neo-Republican Change I Can, Like, Totally Believe In! (Alfonso Nevarez)
• revelwoodie in In which I add my two cents offers Democrats some lessons from history to guide the way forward. (ybruti)
• DWG ironically uses the teaparty's own words against Mitch McConnell and his "anger" in "Grow a pair". (vcmvo2)
• Ralph Lopez highlights war profiteers in Republicans Want to Give Taliban More Money. (ybruti)
• 728huey has A novel view on the future of outsourcing manufacturing jobs, one that could bring the production of tangible goods back to our communities. (Alfonso Nevarez)
• Jim Mallon marks Sparky Anderson's passing with a personal reflection in On Sparky Anderson and My Dad. (YatPundit)
• In Confessions of a Former Kanjorski Intern, RamblinDave spills all his juicy secrets, or more accurately, gives us a pragmatic portrait of what it's like to serve at the pleasure of a conservative Democrat. (Alfonso Nevarez)
• Miep offers "A diary about timing" in Several Days. (YatPundit)
• NourishingthePlanet reports that rural communities are jumping into the information age by Texting on the Farm: Mobile Technology Provides Farmers with Useful Information. (Alfonso Nevarez)

jotter has High Impact Diaries: November 4, 2010.

va dare brings us Top Comments 11.5.10 The ugly underbelly of populism (w' eye candy).

As always, feel free to suggest your own favorite diaries of the day, and use this as an open thread.

   This Rescue Diary covers the period from 6 PM, Thursday, 11/4 to 6:00 PM EDT, Friday, 11/5

Today's Menu Includes :
31 Diaries Overall

- 6 On House races

- Covering 3 individual Districts in 3 states

- 7 On Senate races

- Representing 3 different states

- 9 On Various election races and ballot issues

- Encompassing Governor, Secretary of State, Local, and more

- 9 General election-related diaries

   Please note - Tonight's diary is the final one in this year's EDR Series, v3.0. In keeping with tradition, the floor is open to members of the EDR crew to share their thoughts. Please join us below the list of tonight's diaries.

   The entire crew thanks you for your support and readership!

In Wednesday's press conference, President Obama offered an assessment of his relationship with American business that left the New York Times wondering, "Is Obama's War with the Chamber Over?"

[I]n his post-“shellacking” news conference Wednesday, Mr. Obama came close to conceding the Chamber’s main argument, that American businesses have concluded — wrongly, in Mr. Obama’s view — that his policies are anti-business.

“I think business took the message that, well, gosh, it seems like we may be always painted at the bad guy,” Mr. Obama told reporters. He admitted that relations with the business community has not been “managed by me as well as it needed to be.”

Mr. Obama did not mention the Chamber by name, or refer specifically to the public war of words that has dominated the relationship between the White House and the president’s senior staff.

But he seemed to suggest that his often-repeated goal of creating “new rules of the road” for business needed to be better balanced against a new appreciation for the need to buck-up firms that are struggling in the faltering economy....

“I think setting the right tone publicly is going to be important,” he said, “and could end up making a difference at the margins in terms of how businesses make investment decisions.”

Maybe that “new tone” will apply in the war between the Chamber and the White House as well.

Yeah, not so much. Ben Smith highlights their response, included in a BusinessWeek story.

[Chamber president Tom Donohue would] like to start by chipping away at the President's legislative achievements such as health-care and financial reform, which must still be implemented at the regulatory level.

In short, the battles between the chamber and the White House are far from over. "Oh, hell no," Donohue laughs. "They are in the second inning."

The Chamber's agenda is in direct opposition to the well-being of the majority of Americans. Having them as a foil will actually be great for Obama and the Dems, provided they use them as that foil. They want war, give them war, but just make sure to keep reminding the American people know what the Chamber is about: outsourcing our jobs.

The presumptive new chair of the House finance committee, Spencer Bachus, is promising to fight his level best to make sure that banks can still gamble with our money. Yglesias has this from Bachus:

Spencer Bachus, a potential Republican chairman of the House financial services committee, has fired the first salvo in a battle with regulators – warning them against harming US banks by curbing their trading activity....

“The derivatives provisions in Dodd-Frank alone... as they stand now they’re going to take a trillion dollars out of our economy. Think how many jobs that’s going to kill,” he said.

So it's a war on the Volcker Rule, one of the handful of provisions in the Wall Street reform bill that had the potential to make a significant difference in how the big banks bet their capital. Wall Street just bought themselves a shiny new GOP House, and are counting on payback. Looks like the GOP is primed to deliver it.

Update: Tonight the AP has called Gabby Giffords (D) the winner in AZ-08. -- Barb

The AP has finally called Rep. Grijalva the winner in his bid for reelection. Grijalva had declared victory on Wednesday, when it was clear he would win, but his opponent refused to concede. That leaves a handful more Dem incumbents waiting for final results, including Grijalva's fellow Arizonan, Rep. Gabby Giffords, who leads her Republican opponent by about 3,000 votes, with about 30,000 absentee and provisional ballots outstanding.

In Washington state, WA-02, Rep. Rick Larsen is up about more than 1,400 votes, as of last count, over John Kuster. The late vote in Washington has been breaking hard for Dems, and Larsen continues to benefit, having overcome a 1,500-vote deficit on election night. While Goldy has called it for Larsen, the traditional media hasn't yet, and the Koster campaign is trying to instill the possibility of voter fraud, with no evidence as of yet, because that's what Republicans do.

In California, Rep. Jerry McNerney in CA-11 has expanded a very slight lead of 441 votes (as of this writing) over David Harmer, with thousands of absentee ballots still to be counted. McNerney has solid leads in two counties, while his opponent has smaller leads in a third, and they're tied in the fourth. Also in California, Rep. Jim Costa, CA-20, is trailing by about 1,800 votes. California doesn't have automatic recounts but candidates can request recounts within five days of the election being certified, and have to pay for the recount.

In VA-11, Rep. Gerald Connolly has about an 930 vote lead, but the Republicans are of course hinting at potential fraud. "suggesting that 'there are several developments in the ... race that may call into question the accuracy of the current vote totals.'" They're still counting provisional ballots in the race. If the final tally ends up below 1 percent, either candidate can ask for a recount after the vote is certified on Nov. 22.

In KY-06, Ben Chandler won by more than 600 votes, according to the Kentucky Board of Elections, but his opponent has asked for a recanvass of the votes. So "election boards in each of the 16 counties in the district must convene at 9 a.m. Nov. 12 to double-check their vote tallies, then fax their results to the Secretary of State."

In IL-08, Rep. Melissa Bean trailed by 365 votes at the end of yesterday's count. Her opponent has declared victory, but she hasn't conceded. They're still receiving absentee ballots across the district, which will be counted on Nov. 16.

In TX-27, Rep. Solomon Ortiz is down by 792, though he picked up seven votes from a bag of previously uncounted ballots. He's considering a recount.

Finally, NY-25 freshman Rep. Dan Maffei is waiting on absentee and provisional ballots to find out his fate. He's behind 659 votes, but "Tuesday’s preliminary results do not include 11,645 absentee ballots, nearly 8,731 of which have been mailed back to their respective counties so far." Absentee ballots have to be received by Nov. 9 to be counted, and military ballots by Nov. 24.

Look at this trend:

Yet the voters had other ideas:

A misty-eyed Bill Brady conceded defeat Friday to Gov. Quinn after the tighest race for governor in Illinois in three decades.

“I just a few minutes ago got off the phone with Gov. Quinn, and I congratulated him on his victory, as he deserved,” the Bloomington Republican told reporters, family members and supporters at a hotel in his hometown.

“After days of counting ballots and looking at potential outcomes, we came to the conclusion that Gov. Quinn won this race.

This was the biggest shocker upset of the night. Rod Blagojevich's Lt. Gov, who once sat at 32% in the polls, won his election 46%-46%, plus a few extra thousand votes.

What's coming up on Sunday Kos ….

• Dante Atkins will evaluate the many happy returns from the Golden State.
• In an election cycle like this, there are inevitably some cases of "right candidate, wrong year." Laura Clawson will name some candidates who didn't quite make it this time but should considering keeping the campaign going to 2012.
• Mark Sumner is not enthusiastic about the idea of an enthusiasm gap.
• President Obama cut taxes for the middle class in 2009, but people still believe their taxes went up. If President Obama approves new tax cuts for the middle class and the rich, brooklynbadboy asks why would the political result be any different? He will propose a better strategy.
• Republicans said 2010 was going to be another Year of the Woman. Turns out, it was just another Year of the Man. Again. Kaili Joy Gray explains why -- and why there's hope for 2012.
• Steve Singiser will look at the polling for this cycle and wonder whether some of the “most accurate” pollsters at the end should have to sit in the penalty box for their earlier sins.
• A political era is ending. Laurence Lewis hopes the Democrats are paying attention.

Politico's Ken Vogel flags another donation from MSNBC host Joe Scarborough to a Republican candidate, this one made in April of this year for $5,000 to a GOP candidate in Alabama. Combined with his 2006 contribution of $4,400 to a GOP congressional candidate, Scarborough has donated at least $9,400 to Republican candidates as an MSNBC host -- more than the amount that led to Keith Olbermann's suspension.

It's not just contributions, either: Vogel points out that in August, Scarborough traveled to Alabama to headline a fundraiser for the county GOP where he made his contribution.

Given the obvious double-standard here, Griffin's decision to suspend Olbermann but not Scarborough seems to be motivated by personal or political factors. After all, Joe Scarborough not only has contributed more money than Keith Olbermann, he's headlined fundraisers.

It's implausible that the issue here is that Olbermann didn't ask permission. First, the policy in question doesn't appear to apply to MSNBC -- it's for "impartial journalists" on NBC News' staff, and nobody would claim Olbermann or Scarborough are impartial. They are opinion show hosts. Second, even if the policy did apply, and even if Scarborough did ask permission, it's clear that these types of donations are permissible at MSNBC. And given that it would be illegal for MSNBC to allow Republican donations but not Democratic donations, there's no chance that Olbermann was suspended for failing to ask permission to do something that he would have been granted permission to do.

So it's clear Griffin's decision was the wrong one and it was motivated by the wrong reasons. But the question remains, how long will it take for him -- or the network -- to back down?

Update: Props to Chris Hayes for declining the opportunity to host Countdown tonight.

Update: CNBC's Larry Kudlow also has made political donations -- to Republicans, of course. No suspension there.

Update: Sign your name to the petition demanding Keith Olbermann's immediate reinstatement.

From the GREAT STATE OF MAINE...

This Late Night Snark is Still Too Close to Call:

"Christine O’Donnell, after losing her election in Delaware, said "Our voices were heard." In your head, lady."
---David Letterman
-
"Republicans won big on election day. They say their two big priorities are cutting taxes and reducing the debt. Which is sort of like wanting to lose weight and win 'Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest.'"
---Jimmy Kimmel
-
"[In] Oklahoma, voters overwhelmingly approved state question 755 [to ban Islamic Sharia law], one of the most important initiatives in their state's history. This is great news. Just because something doesn’t exist doesn’t mean you shouldn’t ban it. That's why I have long fought for ballot measures to ban cat pilots, baby curling, and man-futon marriage."
---Stephen Colbert
-
"Former President George W. Bush reveals in his book that he considered dropping Dick Cheney to prove he was in charge. But then Cheney nixed the idea."
---Jimmy Fallon
-
"In an interview on Entertainment Tonight, Mary Hart was told by Sarah Palin she may run in 2012 if there was no one to do it. That's not how you run for President. That's how you offer to babysit."
--–Seth Meyers

And one more gem from You-Know-Who for old-times' sake, via Real Time with Bill Maher:

"I don’t celebrate Halloween because of what it means; because it is a satanic holiday, it is a pagan holiday. And while people are going around gettin' free candy, other people are falling victim to human sacrifices. That's the reality of what's going on on Halloween."
---Failed Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell, circa 1999

Oh, we'll miss the ol' gal. Or at least we will until next week when Sean Hannity starts broadcasting from his new set inside her back pocket.

Meanwhile, I was thinking of something we could collectively do to support Keith Olbermann in addition to raising holy hell. Then I went to Amazon.com and noticed that George W. Bush's lame attempt at revisionist history is #1 on their bestseller list. Keith has a new book out, too. It's called Pitchforks and Torches. I'm thinking it might be fun if everyone in the progressive netroots bought a copy and knocked Bush off his perch. Yeah. That might be real enjoyable.

Your west coast-friendly edition of  Cheers and Jeers starts in There's Moreville... [Swoosh!!] RIGHTNOW! [Gong!!]

The rightwingnuttia is abuzz with the news that President Obama's trip overseas will cost the American taxpayers $200 million a day, that 34 U.S. warships will be stationed for his protection, and that his entourage of 2,000 will use 870 rooms at a five-star hotel.

Except it's not true.

So, how did this truly ridiculous lie become a story? It's easy:

The numbers evidently originate with the Press Trust of India, whose report [based on one anonymous source] was linked on the Drudge Report and picked up by Fox News host Glenn Beck.

From there it exploded in what Rachel Maddow calls the "alternate, self-contained, right-wing media universe," where it has become "de facto fact."

And naturally, the traditional (sometimes called "liberal") media feels compelled to report that there is a story out there, never mind that it's a load of garbage ... because after all, it is the fair and balanced thing to do.

Welcome to a new majority, presumptive Speaker Boehner. And have fun with this.

In a draft of a confidential memo to be distributed to all incoming House Republican lawmakers, Dick Armey, a former Republican majority leader who is chairman of the conservative group FreedomWorks, and Matt Kibbe, its president, told lawmakers that a repeal of the Democrats’ health care law was “nonnegotiable” and warned that they would face a severe backlash from voters if they did not succeed in reversing the law.

“Politically speaking, your only choice is to get on offense and start moving boldly ahead to repeal, replace and defund Obamacare in 2011, or risk rejection by the voters in 2012,” Mr. Armey and Mr. Kibbe wrote.

That's just not going to happen. Even presuming that that they could override a presidential veto (and they don't have the numbers for that), sustaining a two-year battle on one issue is a losing electoral proposition, and while the Bachmann-like lizard brains might not be able to fully comprehend that, "leadership" has to, since they're in charge of looking ahead to the next election. Caucus leaders might also be smart enough to realize that there's an inherent contradiction in their top priority of reducing the deficit and spending and repeal, that is, if they really do care about the deficit.

Boehner's not only got to fight off the onslaught of Michele Bachmann clones, hyped up on Dick Armey-style dumb bravado, but also Mitch McConnell, who has the luxury of throwing bombs around without having the majority to have to back them up. Boehner is definitely not signing onto the "one term for Obama" bandwagon. This GOP civil war is going to be a doozie.

Even if you set aside the hypocrisy of the Joe Scarborough double-standard, Phil Griffin's explanation for suspending Keith Olbermann doesn't add up.

Griffin says Olbermann violated a policy requiring NBC News reporters to obtain approval for making political campaign donations that "jeopardize his or her standing as an impartial journalist." But Olbermann isn't an "impartial journalist" and doesn't claim to be. Neither is Joe Scarborough, a point that NBC itself made in excusing Scarborough's donations. To quote NBC in 2007:

Joe hosts an opinion program and is not a news reporter.

It's the same thing with Olbermann. As John Cook reports on Gawker, MSNBC's opinion hosts aren't subject to the same rules as NBC News reporters.

MSNBC's increasingly left-wing programming and personalities aren't required to abide by NBC News' exacting rules—if they were, it would be a much less bombastic and politically charged network. So while Olbermann's donations may have run counter to the NBC News brand and Griffin's wishes, there doesn't appear to be a chapter-and-verse policy applying to MSNBC employees barring them.

"The standards department has told us that MSNBC doesn't answer to NBC News standards," the insider said.  "They don't have coverage over MSNBC. They used to, back before MSNBC went political, but at some point it became too hard and MSNBC was taken out of their portfolio. As far as I know, there are no ethical standards at MSNBC. And if NBC says MSNBC is supposed to be living up to the NBC News standards, that's a preposterous lie."

Given that Olbermann is MSNBC's top draw, you'd think Griffin would have an airtight case for suspending him. The fact that he doesn't suggests that Griffin's real motivation is either personal or political, because from a business perspective, it just doesn't make any sense.

There is a lot going on right now, but don’t forget to show your support for Nancy Pelosi in her fight to stay Democratic leader in the House of Representatives.

Keep in mind that after the 2002 election debacle, we were told making Nancy Pelosi Democratic leader would be a disaster. Supposedly, we would have been better off with Harold Ford Jr. (yeah, that’s really who ran against her eight years ago). But instead of disaster, the result was that Democrats won more seats, and passed more legislation, than anyone thought was possible eight years ago.

Keep in mind that after the 2004 election debacle, we were told that turning to Howard Dean as DNC chair would be a disaster. The result was two consecutive Democratic sweeps in 2006 and 2008.

We have proven that Democrats can win with the progressive wing of the party in charge. And really, victory isn’t even possible for us unless the progressive wing is in charge, because Blue Dogs just agree with Republicans on too much policy.

We are not in this for the sake of electing people with D’s next to their name. The point is to make people’s lives better. To do that, we can’t go along with Republican policies. As Pelosi herself said today:

Our work is far from finished. As a result of Tuesday's election, the role of Democrats in the 112th Congress will change, but our commitment to serving the American people will not. We have no intention of allowing our great achievements to be rolled back.

Nancy Pelosi is the leader we need in the House of Representatives. Let her know you support her. Her staff is aware of your support, and it is making a difference. Join with over 15,000 other Kossacks, and bring this one home.

Update: Just FYI, there are no other candidates besides Pelosi and Heath Shuler's threatened candidacy. And the Progressives appear to have basically drafted Pelosi to run, so there will not be a different left-wing candidate. This is Pelosi vs. the Blue Dogs. Sign up to join Pelosi's team here.

If you have any doubt about Phil Griffin's real motive in suspending Keith Olbermann, you need look no further than how the network reacted to Joe Scarborough's donation of $4,200 to a Republican House candidate in 2006:

Joe Scarborough, host of the "Morning Joe" talk show and the evening newscast "Scarborough Country," $4,200 in March 2006 to Derrick Kitts, Republican candidate for the House from Oregon. ... A spokesperson for NBC, Jeremy Gaines, replied to questions sent to Scarborough. "Yes, he did make a donation to Derrick Kitts. Kitts is an old friend of Joe's. Joe hosts an opinion program and is not a news reporter."

Griffin might try to defend himself by saying the difference is that Olbermann interviewed one of the candidates that he contributed to after making the contribution. But Griffin's problem would be that Joe Scarborough did the exact same thing. As JohnKWilson pointed out in a diary, after donating to Derrick Kitts, Scarbrough interviewed Kitts on his program.

The bottom-line here that both Keith Olbermann and Joe Scarborough both host opinion shows. They both made personal contributions to political candidates. But Olbermann supports Democrats, and Scarborough supports Republicans, so even though Olbermann is the network's top-rated host, and even though Scarborough hides his ratings sheet in a little box in the basement, it's Olbermann that gets silenced.

• Bipartisanship.
• Some good news out of Florida, in what was otherwise a disastrous election for Dems:

  Voters approved two amendments Tuesday that would set new rules for how legislative and congressional districts in Florida are redrawn each decade.

  Amendment 5 dealt with legislative districts, while Amendment 6 addressed U.S. congressional districts. With 98 percent of precincts reporting, voters affirmed both amendments with more than 62 percent of the vote. The amendments required 60 percent of voter approval to pass.

  The new amendments require that both legislative and congressional districts be compact, equal in population and make use of existing city, county and geographical boundaries. The amendments prohibit drawing districts to favor or disfavor an incumbent or political party.

  Unfortunately, Rep. Corrine Brown has threatened to sue over the amendment, fearing that rational districts would endanger her majority-African American districts, and that's certainly a danger in having non-gerrymandered districts. Then again, Florida is far more Republican at the congressional level than its partisan makeup indicates thanks to aggressive GOP redistricting efforts last decade. Non-partisan districts would make Democrats more competitive in the state, thus give new opportunities to African American politicians.

• The Federal Election Commission will decide on November 18 whether to allow small-dollar political contributions via text messaging.  (Adam B)
• Benen warns about the early 2012 polls:

  At this point in Bush's first term, the frontrunners for the Democratic '04 nomination were Tom Daschle and Joe Lieberman.

  At this point in Clinton's first term, a third of Democratic voters didn't want him to run for re-election.

  At this point in Reagan's first term, a Gallup poll showed Reagan trailing then-Sen. John Glenn (D-Ohio) by 15 points, and behind Walter Mondale by 12 points. Immediately after the 1982 midterms, another poll showed 56% of the country did not want Reagan to seek a second term.

• One reason California didn't follow national trends on Tuesday? Latinos.

  Driving much of the success — and distancing the state from the national GOP tide, according to exit polls — was a surge in Latino voters. They made up 22% of the California voter pool, a record tally that mortally wounded many Republicans.

  Latinos were more likely than other voters to say it was the governor's race that impelled them to vote, and they sided more than 2 to 1 with Democrat Jerry Brown over Meg Whitman, the Republican whose campaign had been embroiled in a controversy over illegal immigration. Once at the polls, they voted for other Democrats as well.

• Unapologetic birther now leads the Missouri House of Representatives.
• If you've missed it, we're collecting signatures for a petition supporting Nancy Pelosi as Democratic leader in the House. The Blue Dogs (what's left of them) have the knives out. Let's show our support.
• Nate ranked the pollsters who did the most polling in 2010. Guess who brought up the rear?

  

  What this chart doesn't tell us is whether their crosstabs were any good. SUSA did well on the toplines, but they had those crazy crosstabs in which young voters were turning heavily Republican. I haven't dug into all the races yet, but from what I've seen so far, that hasn't happened anywhere.

  The top four are bunched up nicely. M-D had the reputation as being one of the best, but it got lapped by a bunch of robo pollsters. Well, all robo pollsters except one:

  The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

  Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.

Remember how I told you about Phil Griffin, and how he's done everything possible to keep MSNBC from going the full liberal?

I rest my case. MSNBC has suspended Olbermann indefinitely without pay for giving political contributions to several candidates this cycle. Griffin's statement:

I became aware of Keith's political contributions late last night. Mindful of NBC News policy and standards, I have suspended him indefinitely without pay."

Real smart, Phil! Olbermann isn't just MSNBC's highest rated show, but it's the only one that breaks Fox News' stranglehold on the top 10 cable news shows.

Of course, this is par for the course for Griffin -- letting his lowest-rated host Joe Scarborough call the shots, to the point where Scarborough has dictated Olbermann's guest list by blackballing me from the network. As Atrios pointed out on Twitter, Pat Buchanan gave five political contributions between 2005-08, and he keeps his permanent cot in the MSNBC green room.

CNN's ratings are in the gutter. I'm sure they could use the boost in the ratings that Olbermann would provide.

Update: Hey, Phil -- What about this?

SCARBOROUGH, JOE PENSACOLA,FL 32503 MSNBC/HOST 3/31/06 $2,100 Kitts, Derrick (R)
SCARBOROUGH, JOE PENSACOLA,FL 32503 MSNBC/HOST 3/31/06 $2,100 Kitts, Derrick (R)

It's okay if you're Joe Scarborough I guess. --Jed

Update: Here's how NBC explained Scarborough's donation to Kitts:

Joe Scarborough, host of the "Morning Joe" talk show and the evening newscast "Scarborough Country," $4,200 in March 2006 to Derrick Kitts, Republican candidate for the House from Oregon. ... A spokesperson for NBC, Jeremy Gaines, replied to questions sent to Scarborough. "Yes, he did make a donation to Derrick Kitts. Kitts is an old friend of Joe's. Joe hosts an opinion program and is not a news reporter."

IOKIYAJS. --Jed

Republicans don't want to give up their hostage-taking leverage on tax cuts:

With the Bush tax rates due to expire Dec. 31, that fight between Republicans and Mr. Obama, who favors extending the rates only for income below $250,000, will play out in Congress’s lame-duck session this month. On Thursday, the White House served notice that Mr. Obama, who a day earlier signaled a willingness to compromise, would not sign on to any deal making permanent the lower rates for income above $250,000.

“The president does not believe, and I think would not accept, permanently extending the upper-end tax cuts,” said his press secretary, Robert Gibbs.

The two sides could settle for something less than a permanent extension of the top rates, Mr. Gibbs suggested. Democrats say they might agree to a one- or two-year increase, and longer for the middle-income rates.

But Republicans say they will insist that, whatever the duration, all rates must be extended in tandem — the easier to extend them together again in the future. Both sides recognize that, politically, Republicans would have a harder time in the future trying to extend only the rates that benefited the richest Americans, about 2 percent of taxpayers.

The key thing to remember is that we're talking about two tax cuts. The first one applies to everybody, across-the-board, on their first $250,000 of income. That's the one President Obama is pushing for, and virtually everybody in Congress says they support it to. The second tax cut only applies to people who earn more than $250,000 and it would cost $700 billion over the next ten years. Obama says the price tag for that tax cut is too high, and that given the size of the deficit, enacting it would be bad policy. Republicans, however, are tax cut fundamentalists, and they are saying that if the high-income tax cut isn't passed, nobody should get one.

Given that there's virtually no way to get the across-the-board tax cut passed without Republican support, President Obama has signalled his willingness to agree to a temporary extension of the GOP's high-income tax cuts in exchange for GOP support for a permanent extension of the across-the-board tax cut. That's not ideal policy, but it's a fair compromise. And by putting the two different tax cuts on two different timelines, Republicans wouldn't be able to hold it hostage when it expires: they'd have to defend it on its own terms.

Obviously, the prospect of defending that tax cut on its own terms has freaked Republicans out. And they are making what is probably a smart political calculation by refusing to give up their hostage-taking power. In so doing, they are dramatically raising the stakes, forcing President Obama to decide whether to either (a) agree to a temporary extension of both tax cuts, a move which continue the GOP's hostage-taking leverage when they expire, or (b) call their bluff and dare them to hold the tax cuts hostage.

I know some people don't agree with me, but I'm perfectly fine with the Obama compromise because it would permanently extend the across-the-board tax cuts while decoupling them from the upper-income-only tax cuts. I also think refusing to accept a permanent upper-income tax cut is the right position -- the impact on the deficit would be enormous. But the Republican position that we should hold the across-the-board tax cut hostage to the permanent one is offensive on its face and won't go over well with the public. I hope Republicans back down and agree to the Obama compromise, but if they don't, this is a fight President Obama should not back down from. And I don't think he will.