Lots of Twitter talk about this post on Tom Ricks’s blog about the counterterrorism/counterinsurgency relationship and Thomas Rid’s response to it. It seems like both talk past each other a bit — or would, if Ricks’s post knew about about Rid’s ahead of time.
Argument summary: Ricks’s anonymous pal “Mr. XYZ” says counterterrorism requires counterinsurgency, since killing terrorists requires intelligence that locals and locals alone possess, and they need something from you — security from reprisal, and maybe some other material benefits — if they’re to get it, because a grand don’t come for free. That requires a big resource commitment. Rid responds that counterterrorism operations in Yemen, Somalia and Pakistan prove that Mr. XYZ is wrong.
But Mr. XYZ could respond to Rid that remote-based counterterrorism is an insufficient security strategy. Kill a couple people, sure, but you don’t know who their successors are going to be in a given terrorist organization or how you’re going to ultimately dislodge the group from where it is. Survivors, friends and family members of the hunted can form the next generation of warriors, and suddenly you’ve swatted at a hornet’s nest. Do that a couple times and you’ll likely reach a diminishing return in your intelligence source base. It’s less an issue of the feasibility of discrete-counterterrorism than the sustainability of it.
And then someone who’s sympathetic to Rid can point to this glaring hole in Mr. XYZ’s strategy to wrap up the Afghanistan war:
Surely, the world’s remaining superpower — despite the squandering of immense opportunities, treasure and too much blood over the past nine years — still has the clout and the savvy to make Pakistan and offer it cannot refuse to embrace with the proper sense of urgency.
“Surely” is not a plan. We’ve bribed, cajoled, coaxed and intimated that we’re leaving-but-really-staying-in-a-different-form. Someone could object that we haven’t cut off funding to Pakistan, but why that would make Pakistan more inclined to act on our goals requires further argument.
Then it gets much worse:
[W]hat if the U.S. finally decided to take into account the strategic culture of the region and decided to go over the heads of both the Pakistani and Afghan governments and make the following offer. The Durand Line is no more. We support the existence of a free and independent Pashtunistan and Baluchistan. Moreover, we could invite India to assist in this with Muslim Indian troops. It worked in Bangladesh. Why not here?
So the U.S. would threaten to redraw the map of a region we barely understand as a solution to a few dozen-to-hundred terrorists whose capabilities are dangerous but diminished? And this is to persuade people against half-measures and security false-dawns? Imperially abolishing the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and stoking a regional war would go according to plan? Anyone remember that both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons? This is self-refuting.