A quick follow-up to
yesterday's post about Paul Krugman and the "mad" G20 ministers. In a series of posts, Krugman has lately noted with dismay that the G20 economic ministers have
publicly called for budget austerity in Europe, similar to what the deficit hawks here are calling for.
His view is that budget austerity now will kill the infant recovery, and he doesn't understand why the economic ministers are asking for it. His attempt at an explanation — they're crazy. That's it — the whole of his explanation. They're "mad." (For the full Krugman on this, see
"Madmen in Authority").
Krugman now appears to have
changed his mind. Madness is no longer the answer. In a new post, he offers that economists who are aggressively advising this course of action are motivated by … ready? … a fit of misplaced morality. Krugman:
What’s going on here? I don’t think you can resort to class-warfare arguments. What I think is happening is that we’re seeing the deep seductiveness, for many economists (and others), of taking what sounds like a tough-minded position in favor of inflicting pain on the economy — and the people who make up that economy.
Keynes knew all about this. Writing about the peculiar appeal of classical economics even in a world in which it had manifestly failed, he argued
That it reached conclusions quite different from what the ordinary uninstructed person would expect, added, I suppose, to its intellectual prestige. That its teaching, translated into practice, was austere and often unpalatable, lent it virtue.
Maybe. Krugman concludes:
[W]hat’s so striking is that in all three cases I’ve cited you had highly trained economists — that is, people who have spent their whole lives arguing in terms of carefully laid out models — making arguments that aren’t backed by any model I can see.
And may I say, I think that by giving in to the seductiveness of calls for pain, some of my colleagues are doing a lot of damage; at a time when we really need clarity of thought, they’re adding to the intellectual murk instead. [my emphasis]
Or maybe not. Consider — world-class academic economists, people who serve up reasons for those in power to act in certain ways, are now offering noticeably un-academic arguments why Europe should jump on the Pete Peterson bandwagon and stop feeding the new-born recovery,
just when the recovery needs its next drink of milk. And the reason is —
virtue?
Instead of settling for inexplicable reasons, let's look at a much more likely one — our old friend
power. If big-time G20 economists are violating their oath of office (so to speak) to serve Shinola to their superiors and call it Wheetabix, they're not doing it on their own. The pressure can only be coming from one of two sources:
- The G20 ministers themselves, who want this analysis served to them; or
- The Pete Peterson Marching Band and Firing Squad, which wants to export the suffering to Europe as well.
Krugman is clearly struggling here, and I don't fault him. But his struggles are instructive. Again, he's asking the right question, and on the pages of the NY Times at that. But I think his blind spot is in not recognizing that the
Venn diagram that maps "Those Who Are Hot-Shot Academics" and "Those Who Suck Up To Power" is not two separate circles. There's a
huge overlap.
Just one indicator of that overlap: How often have you heard corporate necropolises (sorry, "multi-building cubicle warehouse spaces") called "campuses"? And how many university campuses have corporate "campuses" on them? Owners and owned.
This is just an observation — I still have no answers as to where the push is coming from, or why. What's in it for the G20 ministers if they kill the recovery? But the push is on indeed — thanks, Paul, for saying so — and the American disease is starting to metastasize.
As Krugman suggests, this will not end well — here
or in Europe.
GP
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