The View wanted the Salahis, and now the show seems surprised they're kind of odd people

Why are these people still on our television sets? Read More......

The Consumer Metrics Institute Growth Index & GDP

One of my favorite charting sites is dshort.com (that's both the site name and URL). Here they map the Growth Index as defined by the Consumer Metrics Institute vs. GDP (gross domestic product). As you can see, the Growth Index (blue line) is a pretty decent leading indicator of GDP (red line), by about a quarter — not perfect, but decent (h/t LiveJournal's Recession community).


Just a heads-up. If the GDP follows the Growth Index into negative territory, there's not much consumer demand to pick it up.

The stimulus (small as it was) is mainly gone, states are headed belly-up, the Obama–Peterson–Pelosi Deficit Commission will hack the safety net, and only tax cuts for Our Betters is on the table. (And as this nearly impenetrable post by Paul Krugman points out, Big Boy tax cuts are almost no stim at all. Hint: The last three paragraphs are all you need.)

Again, the Growth Index is not a perfect predictor, but it's decent. Explanatory text and more pretty pictures here.

GP Read More......

Levi Johnston may finally come clean about Sarah Palin

Hell, I'd raise the $20k to get him to talk. Read More......

Taibbi on Romer and Summers

Matt Taibbi weighs in at his new Rolling Stones blog on the Christina Romer resignation (our own coverage is here). He deals with the Larry Summers angle, as well as the earlier Peter Orszag exit.

It's a good read, well reasoned, with enough insider spec to make you feel you have a window seat, however cloudy. Summers gets a mild half-Taibbi ("Larry Fishface"). A few preview paragraphs from near the end (my empasis):

If you’re on Wall Street, and you’ve seen the stock markets recover and the banks go from virtual insolvency two years ago back to record profit numbers now, then like Summers you’ll think “everybody agrees” that the recession is over.

If however you’re just some schmuck looking for a job somewhere outside the Beltway and/or lower Manhattan, and you’re noticing that the only easy job openings this year were temp gig taking census surveys (and even those have dried up), then your view of things is going to be no way the recession has ended, “of course not.”

In economics as in all other things, it all depends on how you look at things – and if everyone in the Obama White House is looking at things from the same vantage point, that sucks and is dangerous. Not that Christina Romer was a savior by any stretch of the imagination (one source of mine called her “totally mediocre”), but she was at least not completely a Wall Street pod job – she was pretty much the last inner-circle adviser who wasn’t, and now she’s gone, for whatever that’s worth.

"Wall Street pod job" isn't bad either — not a serious wound, but draws definite blood. As I said, a good read.

GP Read More......

CNN's Fareed Zakaria returns ADL award, and $10k that came with it

Bra-vo. Zakaria writing in Newsweek:

Bloomberg’s speech stands in stark contrast to the bizarre decision of the Anti-Defamation League to publicly side with those urging that the center be moved. The ADL’s mission statement says it seeks “to put an end forever to unjust and unfair discrimination against and ridicule of any sect or body of citizens.” But Abraham Foxman, the head of the ADL, explained that we must all respect the feelings of the 9/11 families, even if they are prejudiced feelings. “Their anguish entitles them to positions that others would categorize as irrational or bigoted,” he said. First, the 9/11 families have mixed views on this mosque. There were, after all, dozens of Muslims killed at the World Trade Center. Do their feelings count? But more important, does Foxman believe that bigotry is OK if people think they’re victims? Does the anguish of Palestinians, then, entitle them to be anti-Semitic?

Five years ago, the ADL honored me with its Hubert H. Humphrey First Amendment Freedoms Prize. I was thrilled to get the award from an organization that I had long admired. But I cannot in good conscience keep it anymore. I have returned both the handsome plaque and the $10,000 honorarium that came with it. I urge the ADL to reverse its decision. Admitting an error is a small price to pay to regain a reputation.

And here's some of his letter to the ADL:

Five years ago, the ADL honored me with its Hubert Humphrey First Amendment Freedoms Prize. I was delighted and moved to have been chosen for it in good measure because of the high esteem in which I hold the ADL. I have always been impressed by the fact that your mission is broad – “to put an end forever to unjust and unfair discrimination against and ridicule of any sect or body of citizens” – and you have interpreted it broadly over the decades. You have fought discrimination against all religions, races, and creeds and have built a well-deserved reputation.

That is why I was stunned at your decision to publicly side with those urging the relocation of the planned Islamic center in lower Manhattan. You are choosing to use your immense prestige to take a side that is utterly opposed to the animating purpose of your organization. Your own statements subsequently, asserting that we must honor the feelings of victims even if irrational or bigoted, made matters worse.

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Plaintiffs, Schwarzenegger and Jerry Brown ask Walker to end the stay of Prop. 8 decision

There was a lot of legal activity late yesterday in the Prop. 8 case. Several parties, including the plaintiffs, the Governor of California and the state's Attorney General asked Judge Walker to end the stay on the decision.

From Karen Ocamb, who has the background on the plaintiffs action:

The legal team of David Boies and Ted Olson (pictured here with American Foundation for Equal Rights’ Chad Griffin) filed their motion asking Judge Walker to lift his stay on allowing Prop 8 to be struck down as unconstitutional.

And, via the San Francisco Chronicle, Arnold wants the same thing:

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger called today for the immediate restoration of same-sex marriage in California, urging the federal judge who overturned Proposition 8 to impose his ruling while the case moves through the higher courts.

Allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry "is consistent with California's long history of treating all people and their relationships with equal dignity and respect," said a legal brief written on behalf of Schwarzenegger.

Earlier this week, several people reminded me on Twitter that Governor Schwarzenegger vetoed marriage legislation -- twice. He wouldn't defend the case either, even though he's a named plaintiff. Seems like he's really trying to redeem himself -- or something.

Also, the Attorney General of California (and Democratic candidate for Governor) Jerry Brown:

Attorney General Jerry Brown, who is running for governor, also filed arguments Friday against extending a stay of Walker's ruling. Referring to the ban on same-sex marriage, Brown's filing stated that "the public interest weighs against its continued enforcement."

If Judge Walker lifts the stay, marriages can begin. But, the other side will appeal that decision to the Circuit Court.

One thing is clear: this became an issue in the races for Governor and Attorney General of California.

Here's the motion from the plaintiffs. It's actually a good read, which can't often be said for legal documents:
Prop. 8 Plaintiffs Opp to Motion for Stay Read More......

Concern grows over Karzai's attempts to assert control over corruption probes in Afghanistan

From the Washington Post:

The concerns were sparked by Karzai's decision this week to order a probe into two anti-corruption units that have been involved in the recent arrest of several senior government officials on graft and bribery allegations. Karzai said the investigators, who have been aided by U.S. law enforcement advisers and wiretap technology, were acting outside the Afghan constitution.

Afghanistan's attorney general said on Thursday that Karzai plans to issue a decree outlining new regulations for the bodies, the Major Crimes Task Force and Special Investigative Unit.

Officials in Washington have moved urgently to ensure that anti-corruption efforts are not derailed. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, the most senior U.S. official to discuss the matter with Karzai this week, conveyed the message that "these two anti-corruption bodies represent important progress," a senior administration official said, "and any steps to undercut or remove powers or authorities from them would be a step backwards."

Read More......

Russia bans grain exports for rest of year because of fire and drought, sending prices soaring

Wash Post:

Russia announced Thursday that it will ban all grain exports for the rest of the year, sending wheat prices soaring to a two-year high and raising the possibility of inflated food prices that could throw an already fitful global economy recovery off track.

A severe drought and wildfires have destroyed one-fifth of Russia's crop and forced the country to draw from emergency reserves.

Internationally, wheat prices have increased nearly 50 percent since June, fueling worries about a repeat of the food crisis in 2008 that triggered riots from Bangladesh to Haiti to Mozambique. Wheat prices in the United States are less likely to remain high, experts said, and a bumper crop could put American farmers in a position to benefit from the low supplies elsewhere.

Read More......