Election Night 2010 Open Thread

UPDATE @ 2:09 AM: Okay, I'm heading to bed. Still outstanding are Governor's races in Florida, Maine, Minnesota and Illinois. And, there's no winner yet in the Washington, Alaska and Colorado Senate races. In Alaska, the write-in candidate leads.

UPDATE @ 1:34 AM: Waiting for results from Senate races in Washington, Alaska and Colorado. Unfortunately, California's Prop. 19 to legalize marijuana lost but the climate change measure, Prop. 23, which had the support of Texas oil companies, lost. (UPDATE: We need to keep an eye the results for Prop. 26, of which Brian Leubitz said, "Prop 26 is just as, if not more pernicious. If it passes, it makes the implementation of any new environmental legislation difficult if not impossible." H/T Rick)

UPDATE @ 1:04 AM: The Co-Chair of the Blue Dog Coalition, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, lost her bid for reelection. Last July, she's famously proclaimed, “It is because of the Blue Dog Coalition that there is no floor vote before the August break.” Yes, that was a big victory. How's that working for you know, ex-Rep. Sandlin.

UPDATE @ 12:31 AM: Harry Reid won. Wow.

UPDATE @ 12:17 AM: Mark Kirk has been declared the winner of the Illinois Senate seat held by Barack Obama. Kirk, who voted against the DADT repeal amendement, will become Senator immediately, meaning he'll serve in the lame duck.

UPDATE @ 12:13 AM: Arizonans just elected Jan Brewer as their Governor. Now, they've got no excuse. She got the job initially because Janet Napolitano left to join the Obama cabinet. But, now Arizonans have elected her. There's no excuse now.

UPDATE @ 12:06 AM: Still waiting on the Illinois, Nevada, Colorado and Washington Senate races, but it's clear that the Dems. will control the Senate -- for what it's worth. They didn't do much with 59 or 60.

UPDATE @ 11:53 PM: Pat Toomey won the Pennsylvania Senate race. I really thought Sestak would pull it out. It's an ugly night in PA all around.

UPDATE @ 11:43 PM: Boehner says he wants to cut government spending, which should be interesting, since it may very well plunge the country into another recession or worse. I'm sure the White House and Democratic leaders will forcefully make that point. Oh, that's right, the President already endorsed the GOP talking point that the deficit simply must be addressed now, so never mind.

UPDATE @ 11:39 PM: MSNBC says Harry Reid race still too early to call.


Big surprise here... Evan Bayh thinks Dems lost because they were just so gosh darn liberal - he's so confident that he wrote an oped explaining why we lost even before the election happened! Bayh says the Dems' biggest problem was trying to address gays in the military, immigration and Bush's tax cuts right before the election.  Uh, gays in the military polls consistently at 70% and Dems didn't bring it up - it was in the Defense Bill.  Does Evan Bayh think we shouldn't talk about the Defense Bill before elections too?  As for immigration, it didn't come up at all.  As for Bush's tax cuts, the GOP did a bang up job, with Obama's help, making the deficit such a concern that Bush's tax cuts fit perfectly in that theme.  So why not bring them up?   If Evan Bayh thinks Democrats lost because of gays in the military,  immigration, and Bush's tax cuts, he must be sniffing a bit too much hair tonic.  The party's problems began long before the last month's legislative agenda.

UPDATE @ 11:19 PM: Some good news from California. Jerry Brown has been elected Governor and Barbara Boxer has been reelected to the U.S. Senate.

UPDATE @ 10:44 PM: Very bad news. Via TPMMedia:

BREAKING: Patrick Murphy (D), DADT repeal leader, goes down to Michael Fitzpatrick (R) in PA-8 http://tpm.ly/bRrGst

UPDATE @ 10:38 PM: MSNBC just reported that Ron Johnson has defeated Russ Feingold. That's tragic.

UDPATE @ 10:35 PM: Via GayPolitics.com, David Cicilline was elected to Congress tonight. He'll make the fourth openly gay member of Congress. Congrats to Rep.-elect Cicilline.

UPDATE @ 10:18 PM: MNSBC reported that John Hickenlooper has been elected Governor of Colorado. Great news. His main opponent was that renowned racist Tom Tancredo, who ran as an Independent. The GOPer, Dan Maes, came in a very distant third. If Maes finishes below 10%, the GOP's status as a "major party" comes into question.

UPDATE @ 10:14 PM: According to a tweet from Howie Klein, it's a bad night for Blue Dogs:

More Blue Dogs losing seats: Kratovil (MD), Pomeroy (ND), Bishop (GA), Marshall (GA), Space (OH)-- worse than predicted

Can't say I'm sad about that.

UPDATE @ 9:52 PM: In Massachusetts, Governor Deval Patrick won reelection.

UPDATE @ 9:47 PM: I am very sad to report that Roy Blunt won in Missouri. The Chamber and Karl Rove bought themselves a Senator -- and he is for sale. Robin Carnahan ran a great race in a very tough year.

UPDATE @ 9:27 PM: David "DC Madam" Vitter won reelection. Really, Louisiana? Wow.

UPDATE @ 9:20 PM: At FDL, Jane Hamsher is tracking the seats that have changed parties tonight.

BREAKING @ 9:00 PM: MSNBC just predicted that the GOP will take control of the U.S. House. GOP will hold 237 seats to 198 for the Dems.

UPDATE @ 8:51 PM: Democrat Alan Grayson just lost in Florida.

UPDATE @ 8:35 PM: In Connecticut, Richard Blumenthal won the Senate race. In Arkansas, incumbent Democrat Blanche Lincoln lost to John Boozman. And, a House race downer, Rep. Tom Periello in VA-05 lost.

UPDATE @ 8:06 PM: The Governor of New Hampshire, Democrat John Lynch, was reelected. Also, Democrats picked up the GOP-held House seat in Delaware with John Carney.

UPDATE @ 8:02 PM: MSNBC just made a slew of calls: Florida Senate race for Marco Rubio; NH Senate race for Kelly Ayotte over Paul Hodes; Chris Coons defeated Christine O'Donnell in Delaware and Barbara Mikulski won in Maryland.

UPDATE @ 7:53 PM: Polls close at 8:00 PM ET in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Washington, D.C., Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Texas.

UPDATE @ 7:34 PM: Via Jake Tapper, ABC has called the Ohio Senate race for former Bush administration official Rob Portman. He defeated Lee Fisher.

UPDATE at 7:04 PM: MSNBC has called the Kentucky Senate race for teabagger Rand Paul. He defeated Jack Conway.

UPDATE @ 7:02 PM: Per CNN, Senator Leahy was reelected in Vermont. Senator DeMint won in South Carolina (he's going to be huge problem.) And, a corporate Republican, Dan Coats, will replace the corporate Democrat, Evan Bayh, in the Indiana Senate contest. Coats beat Blue Dog. Rep. Brad Ellsworth.

Polls closed in Indiana and Kentucky at 6:00 PM. Just about now (7:00 PM), voting is ending in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. At 7:30 PM, polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. We'll update this poll with actual results when races are called.

There are leaked exit poll numbers for races floating around. Huffington posted them here. But, be advised, we've been burned by them before. AP is reporting on the issues and trends:

Voters across the nation Tuesday said they were intensely worried about the future of the economy and unhappy with the way President Barack Obama and Congress are running things.

Voters in overwhelming numbers were dissatisfied with the way the federal government is working and majorities disapproved of both the Republican and Democratic parties, according to an Associated Press analysis of preliminary exit poll results and pre-election polls.

Voters say the economy eclipses any other issue.

CNN has more:

Voters in both parties are upset with how activist the government's been. Two out of three Democrats say it isn't doing enough. And four in five Republicans say it's doing too much.

Sixty-one percent of Democrats say the new health care law needs to be expanded. And 82 percent of Republicans say it should be repealed.

Read More......

Volcker unimpressed with Fed easing potential

And for good reason.

Many analysts expect the Fed to announce a $500 billion buying programme over about six months.

"I don't look for any overpowering results of this action," Volcker, currently chairman of the Obama administration's Economic Recovery Board, said in Singapore as part of a dialogue on financial reform.

He said a fresh injection of Fed cash into the economy could create a risk of inflation longer term, but "I don't think it's beyond the capacity of a central bank to deal with that problem...but they're going to have to deal with it."

Read More......

ABC uninvites far-right activist Breitbart from election night coverage

Good for ABC. It's unfortunate that they had to experience first-hand what a wackjob Breitbart is. I said from the beginning, ABC could have invited a number of normal online conservatives to help with their election night coverage, including Krempasky, Captain Ed, and Jim Geraghty. But they went for sensationalism, and it burned them. At least they're doing the right thing now. Read More......

More turnout anecdotes

Just go read em over at DailyKos. Read More......

The 'Professional Left' didn't take its ball and go home

From Sam Stein at Huffington Post:

As approaches to the 2010 campaign go, the AFL-CIO's is, perhaps, the most illustrative of the mindset adopted by the disaffected or "professional left" -- as the White House pejoratively labeled it. Griping over the way the past two years played out and eager to demonstrate its discontent, the community nevertheless bit its tongue and invested itself in the elections. It wasn't spending money for the sake of it. And with respect to the cable chatterers, it was hardly full-throated endorsement of the president or his approach. Rather resources were offered and arguments made with specified purposes and the begrudged recognition that as disapointing as the Democrats were, it could get worse.

The problem is how you motivate the followers even if the leaders are finally, begrudgingly, on board.

In some quarters, the animus towards the party has been too palpable to ignore. The gay community, in particular, has found self-motivation for Democrats difficult, certainly after conservatives began co-opting the same-sex marriage debate and Congress and the White House punted on their key issues. Gay donors stopped taking out their checkbooks for Democrats in June. And little has changed since, save the protests at Obama rallies, which have grown increasingly louder.

"[W]hat do I tell my LGBT readers this time around?" said John Aravosis, editor of AMERICABlog. "'Vote for Democrats. They won't keep their promises, but they suck less?' Of course I'm voting, and of course I'm urging our readers to support Democrats who have actually kept their promises. But it's difficult motivating people to vote once again for the same guys who already threw them under the bus."

And the problem is really worse than that. If Sam's story is true, then the "Professional Left" risks sending the message to Democrats that regardless of how often politicians break their promises to us, we'll still support them come election time. What's the incentive for Democrats to keep their promises if they know we won't hold them accountable the only time we can hold them accountable, election time?

I'm not sure what the answer is. I don't want the Republicans running Congress and sitting in the White House. But I also don't want Democrats to think they can break any and all promises with impunity, or they will. So what's the solution? Read More......

It doesn't matter if you make change, if you don't communicate change

I'd argue that not enough change was made, but in any case, the administration's and the Democrats' messaging was abysmal over the past two years, as we've been saying for, oh, two years.

How else to explain "death panels," and the odd number of Americans who still think Obama is a Muslim? Yes, the right wing noise machine is good.  And the left wing noise machine is ignored (by the Democratic establishment). There are some Democrats who are great at messaging, who routinely get quoted in the media, and who are unusually good at branding their opponents. They're called the Netroots. And the party, the Congress, and the White House give them far too little respect.

PoliticalWire via Peter Daou:

A Bloomberg National Poll finds that by a two-to-one margin, likely voters in the midterm elections think taxes have gone up, the economy has shrunk, and the billions lent to banks as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program won’t be recovered.

The facts: The Obama administration cut taxes for middle-class Americans, has overseen an economy that has grown for the past four quarters and expects to make a profit on the hundreds of billions of dollars spent to rescue Wall Street banks.

Said pollster Ann Selzer: “The public view of the economy is at odds with the facts, and the blame has to go to the Democrats. It does not matter much if you make change, if you do not communicate change.”

Obama already moved to the middle, and he got branded a Socialist for it.  He's a Christian, and people think he's a Muslim.  He was born in Hawaii, and they think he's from Kenya.  He created or saved between 2 and 4 million jobs, and 94% of the American people either aren't sure, or don't believe it.

The truth is irrelevant when communication is the problem.

No amount of tweaking the Obama, and Democratic, agenda will make one iota of difference if the party doesn't learn, fast, how to message. Read More......

How stinky voting booths make you vote Republican (seriously)

I voted this morning in Washington, D.C. at a local protestant church, with a huge cross with the words “Jesus Saves” imprinted on it and quotes from the Bible posted everywhere.

What’s bothersome isn’t so much that Church and State are teaming up, though some have made that case (this year, the debate has been particularly fierce in Iowa, where one local church encouraged members of the congregation to vote after the service). My bigger concern is that the religious imagery and messaging might affect voter behavior, and determine the outcome of elections.

It’s not far-fetched. Recent research at Cornell suggests that something as seemingly insignificant as having a hand sanitizing dispenser in the room makes people express more conservative views; people also expressed more conservative views when researchers made the room smell bad. It sounds weird, but these are well-documented effects.

These subtle cues also play a role in the voting booth. A 2006 study [PDF] from Stanford University found that voters in Arizona were more likely to cast ballots in support of a state sales tax funding education if they voted in a school. In experiments, the researchers further found that voters were more likely to oppose stem-cell research if primed with religious images. These effects appear even if you control for demographics and political affiliation.

There is a simple explanation for these voting patterns: Voting behavior -- like human behavior more generally -- is often not rational, and is affected by our social environment in ways we don’t even realize. Part of the problem is that, especially when faced with a dauntingly long ballot like Californians are this year, voters save time and effort by relying on social cues and their ingrained assumptions about how the world works.

For instance, voters tend to assume reflexively that female candidates are less conservative than male ones, and also make assumptions about candidates based on race and occupation (if someone’s bio says they’re a small-business owner, that means they’re more conservative, right?). It’s part of an area of social psychology called “heuristics and biases,” and it looks at the ways in which our brains take shortcuts to reduce the cognitive load.

What it reveals about us is unsettling: Could the outcome of something as crucial as the 2000 presidential election, which came down to a handful of votes in Florida, have been determined by the number of people voting underneath some huge painting of the crucifixion?

Maybe -- which is why I think we should all vote at home, online, and far away from a garbage can. Read More......

BP adds nearly $8 billion more to spill estimates

With Joe "I apologize" Barton on the comeback trail, how long before the numbers are revised downward? Reuters:

BP lifted its estimate of the likely cost of its Gulf of Mexico oil spill by $7.7 billion to $39.9 billion on Tuesday, pushing its profits down sharply in spite of higher oil and gas prices.

BP [BP-LN 430.80 6.80 (+1.6%)], the world's biggest non-government controlled oil company by production last year, said delays in capping its blown out well prompted the increased charge for ending the leak, cleaning up the damage and compensating those affected.

Read More......

No one owns my vote

A key point missed by this gentleman from the Financial Times is that if so many Democrats are disaffected that their lack of support is harming someone's chances at re-election, the person to blame isn't the voters, it's the politicians who let them down.  You earn my vote, you don't own it.

But in any case, while attempting to smear the base of the Democratic party, this writer actually empowered it immensely. According to him, had the left not been disillusioned with the Obama administration and the Democrats in Congress, the President could have focused more on wooing support from the middle and possibly turned the mid-terms around. That sounds like a healthy lesson for the future - turn on your base at your own peril.

In any event, suppose that the Democratic base had not been sulking. Suppose it saw, for example, that persisting with a historic healthcare reform was politically challenging in the middle of an economic crash. Suppose it granted that radically overhauling a health system – some 20 per cent of the US economy – that many Americans rather like was a lot to take on. Suppose it was impressed that Mr Obama did it anyway, and was ready to go further.

Supposing those hopelessly implausible things, Mr Obama’s midterm strategy could have been different. Sure of the loyalty of the base, he could have addressed himself to the anxious middle, defended his policies as centrist compromises (which they were), and told the country (as he did in 2008) that its concerns were his concerns. In this alternative universe, he would have had his base and at least a shot at bringing the centre back.

So credit please where it is due. The whining utopian left has a very full schedule of despising Republicans and the idiots and scoundrels (a little over half the country) who keep voting for them. Yet it can always find time to attack its own team, cry and complain, and demand to be patted on the head. The left’s role in Tuesday’s elections should not go unacknowledged.

Read More......

More evidence of high turnout in MO and MN

More anecdotal reports on turnout from around the country.

"Very heavy" in parts of Missouri where the big race is the Senate contest between Robin Carnahan and one of the GOP's biggest corporate sellouts, Roy Blunt:

"It's a very heavy turnout," said Rich Chrismer, director of elections in St. Charles County. He had predicted a turnout of 65 to 70 percent of the county's registered voters. Statewide, the secretary of state's office is estimating a 67 percent turnout

Voting will remain steady, with "the big show starting at 4 p.m.," Chrismer said, indicating that is when the biggest crush of voters will arive at the polls and keep election workers busy until 7 p.m.

In downtown St. Louis, at Centenary Church, 55 Plaza Square, election judges said the first two hours had been just as busy as two years ago, when voters formed long lines to cast a ballot in the presidentail election.

I've confirmed that Centenary Church is in a heavy Democratic voting area. So, that's positive.

"Higher-than-expected" in Minnesota where the Governor's race is the critical battle between Democrat Mark Dayton and right-wing Republican Tom Emmer:

Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie says Election Day is going "smooth as silk" with higher-than-expected voter turnout Tuesday morning.

Ritchie had predicted a turnout of 60 percent but a surge of early morning voters and good weather throughout the state had him questioning at midmorning whether that was too low.

However, he noted that there was a similar surge in the morning of Election Day on 2008, but voting tailed off later in the day.

In Ramsey County, Elections Manager Joe Mansky says morning turnout was also higher than he expected and the county could beat his estimate of 52 percent by day's end.

Gallup sees high enthusiasm, particularly among GOPers. Read More......

Third Way's supporters in Congress are going to lose, but the group wants to run the Democratic Party

This was inevitable. Third Way, the same people who helped weaken and undermine the Democratic agenda over the past two years, are now blaming the Democratic base for the upcoming losses.

We have nothing but disdain for Third Way. It's a group whose motto should be "compromise first." They've got no constituency, no grassroots and no membership, except for wealthy funders. And they don't believe in core Democratic values. But they want to control the Democratic Party:

The long-simmering battle between moderates and liberals for the soul of the Democratic Party is about to explode.

That presents a golden opportunity for Third Way, a five-year-old think tank that remains largely unknown outside the Beltway.

The group has spent months preparing to capitalize on this moment and take a more central role in the party.

And it’s coming down squarely on the side of centrism — and planning to vigorously challenge the left.

“The party is about to come to a major fork in the road,” said Jonathan Cowan, Third Way’s president. “A left turn at this juncture is a turn toward permanent minority status.”

Sounds like Third Way wants to abandon the Democratic base. I guess that means they'll be doing all the fundraising, phonebanking and GOTV from here on out. Oh, that's right. Third Way has no members or organization.

There is one other problem for those political geniuses at Third Way:

In addition, many of Third Way’s most sympathetic Democratic allies now appear likely to lose.

So, their supporters are losing, but they want to control the Democratic agenda. Yeah, that makes sense.

I agree with Ari Berman:

“A big tent is great but not just for the sake of having a big tent,” said Ari Berman, a contributing writer for The Nation and the author of “Herding Donkeys: The Fight to Rebuild the Democratic Party and Reshape American Politics.”

“What I don’t understand is: why is Third Way expending all this energy justifying people who are consistently voting against Obama’s agenda?” he said in an interview. “It seems to me like they’re using Democratic defeats as an excuse to once again blame the liberals, which happens pretty much every single time the Democrats lose.”

That's exactly what they're doing. Opportunistic, but for what?

Don't forget, Third Way encouraged dropping the public option. And, for some reason, they had a seat at the table when the DADT compromise was crafted. They've got access -- and use their access to undermine overwhelmingly popular Democratic values.

Third Way's candidates are going to lose. Their message alienates the base.  And their proposals are out of kilter with what the majority of the public wants. So, just give them the keys to the DNC. Read More......

Washington Post leaves DC, Puerto Rico, American Samoa and the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas off its 'where do I vote' list

How did they forget Washington, DC?  Check it out - no DC, or the other three places.  (I contacted the Post, and they're fixing it. It's a surprisingly common mistake, leaving DC out of lists like this.) Read More......

In PA's Lehigh Valley, high voter turnout is 'shocking polls workers'

Yesterday, via email, I got a memo from Rich Sestak, the campaign director for his brother's Senate campaign:

There is no enthusiasm gap in Pennsylvania. In an election year characterized by a Democratic enthusiasm gap and despite being significantly outspent, U.S. Senate candidate Joe Sestak has defied the conventional wisdom and erased the gap with his rival. With a 1.2 million Democratic voter registration advantage and enthusiasm building on our side, Joe Sestak is well-positioned to be the next United States Senator from Pennsylvania.

I believe Rich. I've been thinking Joe Sestak is going to win.

Pennsylvania doesn't have early voting, so it's all about today's turnout. And, while I know this article is anecdotal, when poll workers are shocked, something is going on:

Voter turnout is reportedly higher than normal, shocking polls workers across the Lehigh Valley area who were not expecting much interest in races for key positions like senator in Washington, D.C., and governor in Harrisburg.

In Allentown's mostly Democratic 7th Ward, Gus Kruz, the judge of elections, was seeing high interest in voting already a few minutes after polls opened at 7 a.m. Although not a large district, a dozen people had already voted in the 7th Ward by 7:15 a.m. At that point, Kruz couldn't predict if more Democrats would come out than Republicans.

The same was true in Bethlehem's 15th ward, 2nd district at the Education Center on Sycamore St. There' Craig Hynes, judge of elections, said he's seen crisp turnout. By 7:45 a.m., 66 voters had cast ballots despite mechanical problems with two of three machines, including one that had to be placed prior to the polls opening.

"For a nonpresidential election we are running above normal for this time of day," Hynes said.

I imagine we'll keep getting reports like this all day from around the country. We won't always know what it means, but I take this as a good sign. Read More......

Sam Seder's GOTV message: It's Not BS

Sam has five main reasons to vote against the Republicans:
Read More......

Tuesday Morning Open Thread

Good morning.

Well, it's Election Day 2010. The TODAY Show just showed me the video of Christine O'Donnell at her polling place. Thanks, NBC. That was really important.

No doubt, it's going to be an annoying day. The pundits and pollsters have already called the election. They're just hoping those pesky voters don't muck up their predictions.

Around mid-afternoon, the cable networks will start getting their exit polling information. That will start to shape coverage. They won't tell us what they know, but they'll hint at it.

The first polls close at 7:00 PM ET in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. From then, til the last polls close in Alaska and Hawaii at Midnight ET, we'll be on wild ride. It could be a late night -- and early morning -- as we wait for results in what could be some close races. Who knows when we'll get results from that three-way contest in Alaska.

The President and Vice President will be working the phones today, calling into radio shows across the country. It's all about getting out the vote.

There's a lot of blame to go around. I think much rests at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW. We'll deal with that tomorrow. But, if history is any judge, the Democrats won't learn the right lessons from this debacle. They'll become the GOP-lite instead of standing for -- and fighting for -- principles.

Today, we all need to vote. Just vote. It matters. Read More......

Please don't feed the polar bears... your microphone

Read More......

Miniature livers have been grown in a lab

Now they're trying to grow miniature people to fit the miniature livers. (Not really.) Read More......

Brazil elects first female president

Very cool. Read More......