Credit crisis may cost more than 10% of GDP

Republican economics at work. Business received everything they wanted including superstar salaries to schmucks while slashing benefits for employees. How'd it all work out?

Credit losses from the financial crisis may exceed even dire estimates of $1.4 trillion, or more than 10 percent of U.S. economic output, according to the chief strategist of research firm CreditSights.

Financial and non-financial loss estimates by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank may be too conservative as the economy weakens and companies and consumers focus on repaying debt, Louise Purtle said on Wednesday.

"What does life after leverage look like?" asked Purtle, during a credit conference in New York. "We're not prepared for it. The great danger looking into 2009 is being too optimistic."

Most indicators suggest no easy fix, she said. U.S. existing home sales indicate there are about 1 million extra homes that can't be sold. Defaults and delinquencies for home loans continue to climb, adding to the 6.9 million foreclosures over the past three years.

U.S. consumer confidence is at its worst levels, exceeding pessimism seen during the 1970s, she said.

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Cinemark CEO gave $9,999 to anti-gay Prop 8 bigots

Cinemark. 2700 screens in 13 countries in North and South America. It's CEO, Alan Stock, gave $9,999 to the anti-gay bigots running Prop 8 in California. Time to avoid this cinema like the plague.

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The French really hate Americans

And they don't even try to hide it.

One minute before the guns fell silent on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month of 1918, World War I took its last American victim.

Henry Gunther was hit by German machine gun fire at 10:59 a.m. in the northeastern French town of Chaumont-devant-Damvillers in a final-minute clash with German troops.

A monument honoring the 23-year-old from Baltimore, Maryland, was erected in Chaumont-devant-Damvillers before Tuesday's 90th anniversary of the Nov. 11, 1918, armistice that ended the bloody four-year conflict.

The town's mayor, Pierre Lenhard, said Gunther had largely been forgotten by French historians.

"I found the reference (to Gunther) when I was looking through the archives," said Lenhard, himself a historian. "This soldier isn't mentioned in any French documents."

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Home values decline for 7 straight quarters

The Republican policies speak for themselves, again.

Home values in the United States posted their seventh consecutive quarterly decline, with nearly one-third of Americans who sold in the past year losing money, real estate website Zillow.com said Wednesday.

Home values fell 9.7 percent year-over-year in the third quarter to a Zillow Home Value Index of $202,966, according to the third quarter Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, which encompass 163 metropolitan areas.

Home values have dropped a total 12.8 percent since the market peaked in 2006.

Year-over-year declines in the second quarter were 8.8 percent, indicating that price drops continued to accelerate in the third quarter, the reports showed.

The continued declines in value are causing more homeowners to sell their homes for less than the original purchase price.

Over the past 12 months, 30.2 percent of homes sold were sold for a loss, up from 23.7 percent at the end of the second quarter.

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In Alaska, as votes are counted "Mark Begich gaining ground against incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens"

UPDATE: Begich just pulled ahead of Stevens.

Still a lot of votes to be counted in Alaska's Senate race, but the early numbers look good. From the Anchorage Daily News:

It's just getting started, but early results from this afternoon's ballot counting in the contest for U.S. Senate show Mark Begich gaining ground against incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens.

The elections division still has tens of thousands of ballots left to count today and even more next week, but the latest numbers show Stevens' lead is down to 971 votes.

The new numbers, reflecting nearly 28,000 newly counted absentee ballots, are from all over the state. Election night, Stevens led the Democratic Begich by about 3,000 votes.

A Begich win will knock the convicted felon out of the Senate before he gets expelled -- and will also keep Sarah Palin out of the Senate for the near future. Read More......

KKK initiation ends in murder of inductee

This is a bizarre and very disturbing story from Louisiana. The KKK is apparently recruiting. But, one recent recruit didn't make it. She was murdered:

A Tulsa, Okla., woman who traveled to Louisiana to join the Ku Klux Klan was shot to death by the leader of the group's Bogalusa chapter Sunday after she tried to back out of initiation rites at a remote, sandbar camp in northeastern St. Tammany Parish, authorities said Tuesday.

An investigation Monday resulted in the arrests of eight members of the Klan branch, which had flown under the radar of officials in St. Tammany and Washington parishes, investigators said. The suspects, all from the Bogalusa area, include Raymond "Chuck" Foster, who has been booked with murder in the shooting of the unidentified woman.

"It's a situation that almost defies logic, " St. Tammany Sheriff Jack Strain said Tuesday. "When you think you've seen it all, something like this occurs."

The woman apparently learned about Foster's group, the Sons of Dixie, through the Internet and applied so she could recruit others in Oklahoma, Strain said. Investigators have recovered the woman's application to join the Klan and noted that she had requested that the organization waive its typical membership fee.

The woman came to Louisiana by bus on Friday to begin her initiation into the group, Strain said. After several rites, including a head-shaving, she was taken to a camp on a sandbar, accessible only by boat, in the Pearl River Canal near Sun.

The initiation continued at the campsite, with rituals that consisted mainly of lighting torches and "running around in the woods, " Strain said.

Sunday night, the woman decided she wanted to leave the camp, sparking an argument with Foster that soon turned violent, Strain said. Foster pushed the woman down and, as the argument continued, he shot her with a .40-caliber handgun, the sheriff said.

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Finally some good news

With all the bad news this past week (oh how quickly an election passes), finally some good news to report. Obama has chosen Jesse Lee to be in charge of online communications for the transition. And that's great. Jesse is wonderful. Joe and I know him from when he was working for the DCCC (the group in charge of electing Democrats to the House), and more recently we worked with him while he served at the DNC and then the Obama campaign. Can't say enough good things about Jesse. He knows the Netroots, knows politics, knows how to fight back. Hey, maybe we can get him Harry Reid's job! (Kidding. Sort of.) Read More......

How Harry Reid is about to kill our 60-seat majority

We tend to be big Harry Reid fans here at AMERICAblog.

Today, not so much.

Harry Reid is about to kill any chance Democrats have at getting a 60-seat majority in the Senate. The irony is that Reid is accomplishing this by ensuring that Joe Lieberman stays in the Democratic caucus. How's that? Conventional wisdom might dictate that you WANT Lieberman in the caucus to help get our numbers ever close to the magical "60," at which point (and this is quite a leap here) all Democrats will join together in a newfound spirit of love and comity and miraculously vote in unison whenever we need to break a Republican filibuster.

Never gonna happen. And Harry Reid is on the verge of making sure it never does.

Reid has the power to remove Joe Lieberman's committee chair and/or kick him out of the Democratic caucus. Yes, Lieberman has to be put up to a vote before the full Democratic caucus. But if Reid were a real leader, he could get his way in a snap. No one is going to challenge their leader if he says that he absolutely wants Lieberman out. At least that's the way it works on the Republican side of the aisle. There, discipline matters. And it shows in how they vote.

But Reid won't say that. And now we have Durbin and even Obama coming up with reasons to keep Lieberman in the caucus AND to keep him as a committee chair. And what's more, they're all trying to spin Lieberman's crimes as some kind of high school stunt - you know, you stuck a girl's pigtails in your ink well and, sure, it was a very bad thing to do, but we're not going to ruin your entire life over a stupid prank, or a youthful indiscretion.

Only problem? Lieberman did far more than a high school prank. And charges against him are far more than a simple "grudge."

Joe Lieberman, as a member of the Democratic caucus, publicly endorsed and campaigned for the Republican presidential candidate - knowing full well that his status in the Democratic caucus was exactly the reason McCain wanted him (watch Lieberman's hateful statements about Democrats and Obama here). McCain wanted to inflict maximum damage on Obama using Lieberman, and he did. Lieberman accused Obama of hating the troops. Lieberman accused Obama of being in cahoots with terrorists. Lieberman said that Barack Obama was a "celebrity" who would "compromise our security" as president. Lieberman said that the Democratic party was no longer representative of mainstream America.

That's not a grudge. It's political treason.

But Democrats aren't going to punish Lieberman because Democrats don't do "mean." Well, Democrats other than Joe Lieberman. He's a certifiable ass. But he seems to be the only ass in town. All the other Democrats, Harry Reid included, it now seems, are willing to let anyone walk all over them, and stab them in the back, repeatedly, all the while politely asking for more.

The Democratic cave on Lieberman is about far more than one traitor. It's about the Democrats' overall lack of backbone. It's about, as one swing voter said to me in 2004, if the Democrats aren't willing to defend themselves how are they going to defend my kids. And the thing is, I'm not sure I have an answer any more. Democrats aren't willing to defend themselves. A lot of them really don't have a spine. Don't like to fight, even when the cause is just. Even when the cause is necessary. You can walk all over them, beat them silly, and they'll come back for more, with a big stupid grin on their faces.

Kiss the 60 vote majority goodbye. I hate to say it, but it appears that no Democratic Senator has anything to fear from Harry Reid or any other Democratic leader. Do whatever the hell you want, is the message Democrats are sending out today. Join with the Republicans, vote with the Republicans, plot and participate in our downfall with the Republicans, and we'll welcome you back, no questions asked. Screw us to your heart's desire and everything will be okay, and then some. There is simply no reason that any Democratic Senator should worry ever again about voting with Harry Reid and their fellow Democrats. It simply doesn't matter. The Democrats have no spine. You won't be punished, ever.

It's a horrifying and saddening thing to admit, but our party, at its core, may actually not have a spine. Our fear of confrontation, our vacillation in the face of obvious truths, is the root of so many failures in the past. I used to always think it a lie when Republicans would say that Democrats are weak on defense. But the truth is, Democrats certainly are weak on defending themselves. Read More......

Dear Senate Democrats, Watch this video of Joe Lieberman.

Every Democrat on the Hill needs to watch this video compiled by Jed. Watch Joe Lieberman say:

- "The real ticket for change this year is the McCain/Palin ticket."

- "I'm not going to go to that convention, the Republican convention, and spend my time attacking Barack Obama."

- "Colleagues like Barack Obama were voting to cut off funding for our American troops on the battlefield."

- "On Iraq, John McCain has been right and consistent, and Senator Obama has been wrong."

- "The fact that the spokesperson for Hamas would say they would welcome the election of Senator Obama really does raise a question..."

- "Senator McCain has more experience, more balance, knows when to be tough, when to be soft. I worry that Senator Obama has not had that experience and therefore ultimately will compromise our security."

- "Senator McCain was the one who said 'I'm going back to Washington and I'm suspending my campaign.' Senator Obama followed him here yesterday and left right away."

- "The Democratic party has been taken over by people who are not from the mainstream of America."

- "Is, notwithstanding his celebrity status, Barack Obama ready to lead? And my answer is no."

Then, explain to us why Joe Lieberman should chair an important committee in the next Congress. A lot of us worked hard to elect Barack Obama and to build the Democratic majority in the Senate. Joe Lieberman didn't. We do hold grudges. Lieberman can't be trusted. It's not that complicated. There must be consequences:

Don't cave in now.

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Scott Eckern resigns from California Musical Theatre after protests surrounding his donation to Prop 8

Wow.

I'm preparing for the religious right and their Mormon financiers to start complaining that this man's resignation is a sign of "religious bigotry." Because, you see, under their view of the world, when they participate in the political process in an effort to subvert civil rights, it's democracy, but when their victims fight back it's "intolerance." So the only way to be tolerant, under their definition, is to sit back and let them impose their religious views on the rest of us by financial fiat. Under this logic, Jewish leaders are being "religious bigots" for opposing Mormon efforts to forcibly convert dead Holocaust victims to Mormonism against their families' wishes. You can see the irrationality in all of this.

But the religious right loves to play the victim, even as they victimize more and more Americans. So expect lots of solemn pronouncements about how oppressed they all are because one of their victims finally fought back. Read More......

Baucus offers "sweeping universal-coverage plan"

Senator Max Baucus, who chairs the Senate Finance Committee, has unveiled the first major health care proposal for the next Congress. The Hill calls it sweeping":

Under the Montana Democrat's plan, all Americans would be required to hold a health insurance policy, going one step further than President-elect Barack Obama's plan. Individuals could keep their existing health plans or join a nationwide insurance pool to buy coverage, the price tag of which would be reduced with government subsidies. Insurers would not be allowed to discriminate based on pre-existing conditions, a centerpiece of Obama's plan.

Baucus's plan comes after Sen. Edward Kennedy (Mass.), who chairs a key health committee, and other top Democrats have sent clear signals that the 111th Congress will attempt to enact a sweeping healthcare plan — despite the skyrocketing national debt. Obama has listed healthcare as a priority on his agenda, but he has suggested that a big push may wait until after the financial system stabilizes.

Under Baucus's approach, coverage would be expanded under Medicaid and the State Children's Health Insurance Program, which would ensure that children below 250 percent of the federal poverty level would be covered. People between the ages of 55 and 64 would be eligible for a Medicare buy-in, and the plan would phase out the current two-year period where individuals who have disabilities have to wait for Medicare coverage.

His plan will likely generate opposition from Republicans who say government should take a more limited role in the healthcare system. Legislative language has yet to be released.

Of course Republicans will oppose health care reform. They opposed reform of the financial sector, too, and look where that got us. Read More......

Prop 8 Boycott Called on Legendary El Coyote Restaurant

From FireDogLake:

Marriage rights advocates are calling for a boycott of Los Angeles' legendary El Coyote Cafe where Sharon Tate ate her last meal, and Penelope Cruz and U2 have had much more successful dining experiences, though George Clooney and Fabio came to blows in the naugahyde upolstered dining room after the Italian romance model called Clooney "a diva."

In high school El Coyote was notorious for not checking IDs-- that's where I had my first margarita. Nowadays they check your driver license before pouring you a 'rita, but it's still homey, cheap, cheesy, campy, classic LA and great fun. And it's also listed in travel guides as being "gay-friendly" for those reasons.

So imagine the surprise when it was discovered co-owner Marjorie Christoffersen gave $100 to Yes on 8 group ProtectMarriage.com.

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Little girl cried because Obama wants us out of Iraq

Possibly the dumbest story I've read on the National Review Web site in a very long time. But quite indicative of the right wing in this country.

Yes, it's sad that a little ten year old girl cried over Obama's presidential victory (apparently, she was concerned that if we withdrew from Iraq then it would suggest that the war was for nought - insightful girl, as she agrees with around 60% of the American public). But this child's tears are also quite irrelevant to a debate of Iraq policy, or any policy whatsoever.

Republicans are truly the master of the irrelevant analogy and the misleading metaphor. Only conservatives could come up with the idea of using a tax cheat as their national mascot for tax policy - hyping a guy who does better under your opponent's tax plan to promote YOUR tax plan. Absurd, idiotic, certifiably insane, but also brilliant in that, from a conservative's viewpoint, facts and reality don't matter. It's all about spinning the lie and winning the voter, whatever it takes.

Thus we examine a ten year old girl's tears in order to discuss Iraq policy and Barack Obama's position on the war. It's touching, to be sure, and absolutely irrelevant. A perfect recipe for Republican politics. Read More......

Another Bush screw-up may put his last-minute regulations in peril

In a nutshell, Bush is having government agencies issue new last-minute regulations now, in order to make it harder for Obama to overturn them. It's a long convoluted story, but Bush thought that if the agencies issued the new regulations more than 60 days before the end of his term, it would be harder for Obama to challenge them. Only problem, Bush got his math a little wrong. In fact, the cut-off date for "easy new regulations" isn't November (this month), it was some time this past summer. That will make it much easier to overturn Bush's last-minute conservative free for all.

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Seems you all got Bill Marriott's attention

Bill Marriott, the head of Marriott hotels, issued a statement yesterday, apparently out of concern that all the Prop 8 blowback was going to lead to a boycott of Marriott. Bill Marriott rightly noted that his business has a perfect rating from the Human Rights Campaign. And that's swell. But there are a few problems with that argument.

First, I'm sure Domino's and Coors probably weren't particular anti-gay companies per se. But the people running the company gave their money to some pretty nasty conservative causes. That money came from us, their customers. And I suspect Bill Marriott, as a good Mormon, gives 10% of his gross income to the Mormon church as is required. And the Mormon church is personally responsible for taking away our rights in California. We were winning on Prop 8 until the Mormons parachuted in and dropped as much as $20 million (one estimate is that Mormons gave 77% of the entire budget the bigots had to push Prop 8). The Mormons did this to us. So I have a problem with enriching Bill Marriott so that he can enrich bigots who take away our civil rights (and who convert dead Jewish Holocaust victims to Mormonism without their families' consent, among other nasty things).

It doesn't matter if Bill Marriott didn't give to Prop 8. He is a major donor to the Mormon Church. And they use that money to impose their religious views on others, whether you like it or not.

Second, Bill Marriott may not have given to Prop 8, but people on his staff, who run some of his hotels, did. And we pay their salaries. We pay for those donations every time we stay at a Marriott.

But hey, maybe in the end Bill Marriott hasn't given a ton of money to the Mormon church. Maybe he doesn't give his ten percent. I'm sure he's willing to tell us just how much money he's given to people who have made it their mission in life to rescind our civil rights. Then we can judge whether we ever want to stay at a Marriott hotel ever again. The Mormons have the right to try to dehumanize blacks, Jews and gays. And we have the right to fight back. And now we are. Read More......

Democrats add one more seat in the House

Frank Kratovil won Wayne Gilchrest's old seat in a very close race.

Democrat Frank M. Kratovil Jr. celebrated victory in the 1st Congressional District a week after Election Day yesterday, closing a rancorous campaign that has colored Maryland a deeper shade of blue.

The end came when Republican Baltimore County state Sen. Andy Harris called to concede in a district that was drawn to favor Republicans but went Democratic in a national wave that broke against the GOP last week.

In Maryland's most competitive race this year, Kratovil, the state's attorney for Queen Anne's County, leads Harris by 2,154 votes of the nearly 353,000 counted. About 8,000 ballots are still to be tallied.

The victory in a district that has been represented since 1991 by Republican Wayne T. Gilchrest gives Democrats seven of the state's eight House seats - for the time being, at least.

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Wednesday Morning Open Thread

Good morning.

Day Two of Matt Lauer's interview with Sarah Palin ran today on the TODAY Show, which means it will be played endlessly on MSNBC. My favorite quote from Palin: "I've never been an obsessive partisan." So, in her mind, all those attacks on Obama, including the infamous "palling around with terrorists" line, were not obsessively partisan. She lives in a world of make-believe. But, if the GOP thinks she's the future for the party, have at it.

We should find out who won the Alaska Senate race today -- or at least have a better idea who will be declared the winner.

And, in case you're wondering what Obama is doing today, besides setting up a new administration, I just got an email telling me that the President-elect and Vice President-elect have private meetings today and "There are no public events scheduled." I imagine the pace will start to pick up on cabinet and other high level positions quite soon.

Okay, let's get it started....

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Europe reflects on Obama victory

For years I've had the pleasure of being lectured in Europe about how racist America and Americans are. The discussions crossed the piling on stage years ago and no matter how many members of Congress, mayors, business leaders, etc I mentioned, I would still hear more about racism in deep America. It never mattered that political or business leaders were rare in Europe because America had such a poor history of race relations. I've visited plenty of offices around Europe (and beyond) and the fact that I never could see offices that represented people I saw on the street, well, that was just a fluke that occurred hundreds of times. Just because offices were almost exclusively white didn't seem to register and I didn't understand the history or culture or some other silly answer.

Let's just say the discussion is changing ever so slightly. The US continues to have problems with race but Europe remains a few decades behind.

“The election of Barack Obama highlights via a cruel contrast the shortcomings of the French Republic and the distance that separates us from a country whose citizens knew how to go beyond the racial question,” the manifesto said. It won support from Mr. Sarkozy’s wife, Carla, who told Le Journal du Dimanche, “our prejudices are insidious” and hoped the “Obama effect” would help to reshape society.

But the French model of citizenship does not allow for official distinctions by race or religion. When a legislative official here was asked for data on the number of black or Muslim legislators, he told a reporter to “look at the pictures on the Senate directory,” to judge by name and skin color.

Joseph Macé-Scaron, writing in the French-language weekly Marianne, said that the discussion of a “French Obama” was a diversion and a screen, substituting a false American model onto France. The problem here, as in other parts of Europe, he said, was less the rejection of nonwhite immigrants than the way political and cultural elites patronized and used them, “only to better block access to the top of the social ladder.”

Praising “the ‘difference’ of nonwhites locked them inside identities of resentment,” he said.

But the conservative Le Figaro blamed French minorities themselves for part of their exclusion. The paper noted that Mr. Obama’s success was based on his upbringing, education and success at integrating into the larger society and articulating its values, including patriotism.

Classic. Blaming the minorities in a major publication. Fox News and the Washington Times must be proud. Read More......

Congressman Cummings on AIG: "These guys, they don't get it"

I'm sure the corporate offices were not quite up to standards for such product training. Heavens no, that simply would not work. Read More......

Peru answers the call

What a cute pup!

Peruvians crazy about their national dog, a bald and often toothless breed popular among Incan kings, offered Monday to send a hypoallergenic puppy to the Obama family.

U.S. President-elect Barack Obama has promised daughters Malia, 10, and Sasha, 7, a new pet for the White House. But Malia is allergic to most breeds, he said Friday as speculation swirled about the dog the family would choose.

Owners of the Peruvian Hairless Dog, a breed dating back 3,000 years and depicted in pre-Hispanic ceramics, say it is perfect for kids who are sensitive to dogs.

"They do not cause any type of allergy and are very friendly and sweet," said Claudia Galvez, 38, director of the Friends of the Peruvian Hairless Dog Association.

NOTE FROM JOHN: As a dog lover myself, I seriously hope Chris is kidding about that mutant rat being cute. Read More......