Interesting questions: Is this really a withdrawal? And how does Obama want it to be perceived? There are a lot of layers here. (Note before we begin, that the "withdrawal" was mandated, going to happen anyway; this looks at the shape it takes and how it's rolled out.)
The Iraqi layer. Iraq is trying to form a government. The Allawi vs. al-Maliki cage match seems to be a draw, after al-Maliki falsely
painted Allawi's coalition as "Sunni" (it's "largly Sunni" but also cross-sectarian). Al-Maliki's attempt to glue all Shiites to himself, which failed, could leave room for a "neither of them" Shiite to step in. The U.S. would
obviously like to see the next government formed soon.
The "withdrawal" — which only has to appear to be a withdrawal — acts a mood-pacifier.
Juan Cole:
Obama’s withdrawal is an act of contrition that can begin the process of repairing relations between the US and the Arab world, a world that increasingly views the Obama administration as a disappointment because of its failure to follow through on pledges such as the two-state solution in Israel/Palestine.
Whom does it benefit? I'm not sure, but it's
wheels within wheels over there. Watch and listen. (And don't forget the left-behinds; see below.)
The Obama-Dem layer. Here the "withdrawal" absolutely has to appear real; thus the Breaking News parade of force and heavy vehicles, a grand national show of "redeployed" American might. (The word "retreat" isn't invited to this party, since as we all know, Iraq is
not Vietnam.) The
New York Times:
“We are with the last combat troops” in Iraq, the NBC correspondent Richard Engel said at 6:30 p.m. Eastern.
There are two elements to that snippet, the military and the press. Both are key to its effect.
Who's the market for the Obama-Dem layer? "Liberal" Dem voters, perhaps even some of the younger crowd who may know deployed families (or still fear being among them). The message — This is Team Change keeping its word.
The Obama-Pentagon layer. Here the left-behinds are the story, and what they'll be doing. The same
Times report later says (my emphasis throughout):
The movement of the trucks, televised live on “NBC Nightly News” and simulcast on MSNBC, was a largely symbolic demonstration that the war, as Americans have known it, is in its waning phases. . . . Operation Iraqi Freedom becomes Operation New Dawn . . . More than 50,000 troops will remain in Iraq; they will be reclassified as trainers.
The phrase "rebranding" comes to mind. As does the rarely mentioned use of mercenaries (sorry, contractors).
Jonathan Turley:
What has been largely ignored in coverage is not only that 50,000 military personnel remain but . . . [t]he Obama administration is planning to more than double the number of private security guards it has in Iraq — up to 7,000 — according to the New York Times. They could find a few extras in Afghanistan where the Administration was surprised with an order to get its civilian security forces — most of the 45,000 contractors — out of the country.
During MSNBC's wall-to-wall "breaking" coverage, one of the commentators (Richard Engel, I think) said the left-behinds will do Special Ops work. This has to please the military, and everyone else invested in the muscular exercise of American power, including many Dems and Independents, plus whatever Republicans Obama can peel away. Call this the "Obama-testosterone" layer if you will, since it counters the always-present "Dems are weak" assault.
Note how the left-behinds, though, complicate calculations for the Iraqis. 60,000 foreign troops with SpecOps assignments can swing a lot of decisions in semi-client states.
The Republican layer. I
think this paints them into a corner, but I could be wrong. Are they really going to say — "Return those troops to Iraq this minute, you coward!" I'm looking forward to seeing how they play it; I really am.
The "professional left" layer. Ah. We know what Obama's trying to do with these folks. How will they react? On this hangs the 2010 election, in my opinion, since we know that this bunch includes more than loudmouth bloggers, but
actual Dem boots on the ground. The base is de-motivated for a number of reasons; if you ask for a list, get coffee first. It won't be a short one.
Bottom line? This is a tricky triangulation, and I'm not sure it can be pulled off. Some groups have to believe the "withdrawal" is both real and
not a retreat. Some have to believe it's a wink-wink affair, with Mr. T leading the left-behinds to testosterone glory. And the administration has to speak to both groups at once.
Eighteen-dimensional chess indeed.
GP
Read More......