I can think of one "tough vote" that remains: November itself. And this kind of talk from the Democrats is not going to help motivate Latinos, pro-choicers, gays, enviros and others to donate their money to, and come out in droves for, Democrats. I'm sure that smarty-pants Democrats in the White House (Messina, Bond) and DNC (Tobias) are telling everyone not to worry about t he core Democratic constituencies, they'll vote for us anyway in the end, just as they did on health care reform in the House.
But mid-term elections - elections overall - are not congressional votes. People, generally, don't think their vote counts. Not individually. No one really believes that if they don't vote, their one vote will throw an election (even though some times your individual vote CAN swing an election (especially for a House seat), and certainly in the aggregate (think Florida in the 2000 election) - but I still believe that many people don't believe/realize this). By constantly going back on their promises to key Democratic constituencies, Democrats are suppressing enthusiasm, which may very lead a lots of Democrats to not vote. Here's how it works:
1. Say I'm a Democrat, and I'm ticked at the party for turning its back on its promises to my constituency.
2. I also don't want the Republicans to take control of the House, or take back the White House.
3. But I "know" that my single vote will never swing an entire congressional election, and certainly won't be the deciding vote for the presidency.
4. So, I slow down my donations (or stop all together), I don't volunteer to help any campaigns, I bad mouth the party to all my friends (dampening their enthusiasm and creating chatter that leads the media to write stories about dispirited Dems, only leading to further Democratic dispiriting and at the same time energizing Republicans), and when election day comes, I may simply not vote since, I think, my individual vote won't really make a difference, and I just can't stomach voting for these guys again.
5. Thus, I make my point by withholding my support, self-assured that by not donating and not voting I'm not "really" hurting the party, since my individual vote won't matter. It's a stand on principle. And one that, in the aggregate, can unwittingly swing an election.
I'm not saying that this is what I will do, I'm saying it's what a lot of dispirited Dems most certainly may do. What happens next? Well, if enough individual Democrats, all equally convinced that the party has turned its back on them, but also equally convinced that their sole vote won't make a difference in swinging the election, collectively pull their support for the party, suddenly that sea of individuals becomes a minor tidal wive.
And that's the dilemma that the Messinas, Bonds and Tobias' of the world fail to understand. Enthusiasm matters for elections. And the White House, DNC, and Congress have done a really good job of taking Latinos, gays, enviros, pro-choicers, health care advocates and every other core Democratic constituency for granted, killing a lot of the enthusiasm that was there only 15 months ago. And collectively, that enthusiasm gap could be quite harmful to Dems in the fall.
Read More......