Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Hillary gets only small delegate bump from PA


As predicted, Pennsylvania changed nothing. Obama still leads Hillary by 131 delegates overall,and 156 pledged (not "super") delegates:
NBC News has allocated so far a 75-65 split for Clinton out of Pennsylvania; 18 delegates are not allocated yet.

With that, Obama now leads by 156 pledged delegates: 1,482-1,326.

Our superdelegate total is Clinton 262, Obama 237.

In all, Obama now leads by 131 overall: 1,719-1,588.
Read More......

About those supposed Clinton & Obama voters going for McCain


These surveys, about what percentage of Clinton and Obama voters would rather vote for McCain than the other Democrat, have it all wrong. You don't ask Obama voters a generic hypothetical about whether they'd vote for Hillary if she won the nomination. I don't know a single Obama voter who wouldn't. You ask Obama voters if they'd vote for Hillary if she gets the nomination even if she never catches up to Obama in pledged delegates (i.e., she's handed the nomination by the SuperDelegates and/or some trick involving reinstating Florida and Michigan). Then watch and see how many Obama voters are willing to support her. I think you'll be lucky if she breaks 50%. Read More......

NYT editorial board, which previously endorsed Hillary, now blasts her


To my ears, this borders on an un-endorsement:
The Pennsylvania campaign, which produced yet another inconclusive result on Tuesday, was even meaner, more vacuous, more desperate, and more filled with pandering than the mean, vacuous, desperate, pander-filled contests that preceded it.

Voters are getting tired of it; it is demeaning the political process; and it does not work. It is past time for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to acknowledge that the negativity, for which she is mostly responsible, does nothing but harm to her, her opponent, her party and the 2008 election.

If nothing else, self interest should push her in that direction. Mrs. Clinton did not get the big win in Pennsylvania that she needed to challenge the calculus of the Democratic race....

It is getting to be time for the superdelegates to do what the Democrats had in mind with they created superdelegates: settle a bloody race that cannot be won at the ballot box. Mrs. Clinton once had a big lead among the party elders, but has been steadily losing it, in large part because of her negative campaign. If she is ever to have a hope of persuading these most loyal of Democrats to come back to her side, let alone win over the larger body of voters, she has to call off the dogs.
Read More......

There's still no path to the nomination for Hillary, just a path to destruction.


Can someone ask Hillary Clinton how she intends to secure the nomination? And, have her explain it in real terms -- without spin, without obfuscation, without making up new rules and without pretending that she always wanted Michigan and Florida to count.

Hillary can't tell you how she wins it. She can't because there is no way she can win the nomination. But, that won't stop her because she is Hillary Clinton. I'm going to post a section of something I wrote earlier today, because it sums up the situation:
The victory in Pennsylvania has been preordained for months. Clinton can't win the nomination. I predicted last November that Clinton wouldn't be the Democratic nominee (back then, just five months ago, very few people shared that view, believe me). But, I don't think anyone imagined the process would go on so long -- or that Hillary wouldn't accept her defeat. She is going to continue her destructive ways, although, it's going to be tough considering her campaign is in the red. Clinton's campaign is running negative attack ads against Obama while it's running on fumes and not paying its bills. That says a lot about what we're dealing with. Last night, on the Daily Show, Jon Stewart asked Obama a funny, but actually prescient ,question:
At one point, Stewart asked Obama whether he worried "that you could win the nomination at the Convention and defeat John McCain in the general and, you know, go to the inauguration and Hillary would still be running?"
It sure feels that way.

We know the media loves a circus and no one puts on a better political circus than the Clintons. So, I refuse to let Chris Matthews or Mark Halperin or Jim VandeHei or George Stephanopoulos (or even Chuck Todd who I actually respect) tell us this isn't over for Clinton. It is.
Now, you gotta love the Clinton campaign's spin machine. According to Ben Smith, a spokesperson for the campaign claims they raised a lot of money tonight, well, a lot for them, not compared to Obama. The Clinton donors should just write their checks to Mark Penn's firm (he's owed $4.5 million) or maybe some of the other debtors who are owed over $6 million.

So, on we go. On the Clinton path of destruction. Read More......

Chuck Todd is wrong


Hillary can still win it. Here's how. Read More......

NBC's Chuck Todd: Impossible for Hillary to catch up


Hillary would have to win 69% to 70% of the delegates in every remaining state in order to catch Obama. He then says that if Obama and Clinton split Indiana and North Carolina on May 6, as expected, then she'd need to win 80% of the delegates in every remaining state. Basically impossible. Here's the video, it's good.

Russert just said that Obama failed to win in Texas. Uh, Tim, Obama won Texas. Read More......

NBC just noted...


Since Super Tuesday, Hillary has added 12 SuperDelegates, Obama has added 83. Read More......

NBC calls PA for Clinton


Big surprise....Now the question is the margin. This was always supposed to be a huge win.

And, here come the painful Clinton surrogates.... Read More......

Too close to call in PA


ANOTHER UPDATE From Joe: Okay, back to my earlier prediction of 7-8 points. Exit polls suck again.

UPDATE From Joe: I'm crunching numbers based on the exit polls. Major caveat is that the exit polls are subject to change, but, based on what we're seeing, this is not looking good for Hillary Clinton. Using CNN's exit poll, I have her at 50.7% 51.8%. Using NBC's number, I have her at 51.8%. There are were slight differences in the level of support she received from women (the numbers are the same now.) And, I'm not sure the exits capture the very heavy turnout we keep hearing about in Philly. Bottom line is that Hillary Clinton could be in for a rough night. That's why you don't see any of the usual Clinton subjects in front of the cameras boasting right now. You know if they were expecting a big win, they'd be unbearable.

Considering Hillary was supposed to win the state by 20 points, that's news already. Read More......

Hillary brags that no one is donating any money to her


Montanaro at MSNBC:
[W]ith Barack Obama outspending her by as much as three to one, Clinton insists that if he doesn't win Pennsylvania, it shows voters have big doubts. Essentially, she's trying to turn losing into winning and turn winning around into losing. Never mind the fact that Obama can outspend her because he's raised so much more money, from many more supporters, supporters who are responsible for giving him the lead by every viable measure of the race.
Read More......

Philly votes late


From USAToday:
Philadelphia officials are expecting a crush of voters between now and 8 p.m. ET -- a surge that would come on top of what is said to already be a record turnout for a primary.
The crush is on. Read More......

NiceTryGiveItUp.com


You too can write your own break-up letter to Hillary. A sample of the letters on the site...
It's NOT me it's you!

you go girl. seriously.........go.

Dear Baby, Welcome to Dumpsville. Population, You.
(Hat tip, Ben Smith.) Read More......

PA Exit Polls emerging


There are basically two types of exit poll reports emerging. One is the horse race number (which is leaked) -- the other looks at the demographics of the voters, which is widely shared by major news entities.

Before you read any of them, read this post from Markos: Ignore Exit Polls.

There are two currently two versions of the horse race circulating. Josh Marshall has both, with the necessary caveats:
As you may have noticed Drudge has up what he says are 5 PM exit poll numbers showing Clinton 52%, Obama 48%. I suspect they are 'accurate' as far as early, un-weighted exits can be. But let me point out that my recollection is that pretty much all the early and unweighted exits we've seen this cycle have turned out to be wrong. And often very wrong. So this has to be taken with a real grain of salt. And that's assuming they're not made up entirely.

Late Update: Jim Geraghty at NRO has Obama 52%, Clinton 47%.

And to be clear, when I say take them with a grain of salt, I don't mean that in the garden variety, being responsible, 'we don't know for sure yet' kind of way. I really mean that these early unweighted numbers have routinely been way, way off.
Keep in mind, these numbers are very subject to change...against Obama.

On the demographics, The Associated Press provided this info:
Interviews with voters leaving the polls showed almost six in 10 were women and three in 10 were age 65 or over.

Some voters had a hard time making up their minds. One in five said they decided for whom to vote within the last week and about one in 10 said they made up their minds Tuesday, according to the preliminary results of exit polling for The Associated Press and television networks.

A quarter of voters had household family income of more than $100,000 last year and about as many reported having a postgraduate degree. Those groups tend to vote for Obama.
CNN offers this:
Obama is winning 92 percent of black voters, among his highest margin to date in that demographic. Meanwhile, Clinton is winning among voters 65 and over by a 23 point margin, 61 to 38 percent.
Huffington Post has a very extensive report of all the numbers rolling in. Read More......

3rd Hillary staffer: Hillary didn't mean she'd nuke Iran when she said we'd give them "a nuclear response"


Well, we now have a third denial from the senior levels of the Clinton campaign that Hillary did not mean nuclear weapons when she referred to giving Iran a "nuclear response from the United States" should they nuke Israel. Then what did she mean by "a nuclear response"? Here is what Hillary said just last night on Keith Olbermann's show:
"[T]heir use of nuclear weapons against Israel would provoke a nuclear response from the United States."
Kind of obvious what she meant. But two senior Hillary aides denied last night that Hillary meant nukes when she repeatedly implied over the past week that she'd nuke Iran, and when she explicitly said just that last night. And today I find out that Clinton campaign senior adviser Ann Lewis also said last night that Hillary didn't mean "nuclear weapons" when said we'd give Iran a "nuclear response."

Then what did she mean? We'd sprinkle them with nuclear fairy dust? This story is now a total mess. I wrote more extensively about this earlier, but it sure is pretty peculiar having Hillary running around suggesting that we start nuking the Middle East, only for her staff to turn around and say she never said it. What are our enemies to think? What are our friends? Read More......

Wachovia: 'We are in the early stages of the credit cycle'


Lehman Brothers and Wall Street cheerleaders can say whatever they like but we are nowhere near the end of this. Anyone who says they know the full extent of the losses is either a liar or a fool. The range continues to grow but it's only a range and could be considerably worse.
Nine months after the crisis in the American mortgage market began to tear through the financial world, the cost to banks, in terms of their own sinking investments, is approaching $300 billion. To shore up their weakened finances, one bank after another is racing to raise capital — a total of $160 billion so far.

The pain is far from over. Even the most optimistic forecasters say banks will suffer billions of dollars in additional write-downs on mortgage investments and other debt in the months ahead. The final figure for the banks write-downs could eventually exceed $750 billion — twice some early estimates — if the economy sinks into a prolonged recession, some analysts say.
Read More......

UN says 300,000 may have died in Darfur over last five years


It looks like we desperately need a lot more constructive cooperation at the UN Security Council level than we are seeing today.
Holmes was later asked by reporters to clarify his estimate. He said he was "not trying to give an exact figure" and described 300,000 as a "reasonable extrapolation" from the 2006 estimate for the current total number of people who have died in Darfur of disease, hunger or in combat.

Holmes said the original 200,000 figure was based on a 2-year-old study by the World Health Organization. He said there were no plans now for a new scientific study to determine the precise number of deaths in Darfur caused by the conflict.

Asked if the figure could be even higher than 300,000, Holmes said: "I'm trying to be reasonable, conservative."
Read More......

Pennsylvania: Of Predictions and Pundits


Like most political geeks, I've been rooting around for information about what's happening in PA today. The Philly.com blog has been pretty good with anecdotal information. The Allentown Morning Call is reporting "above-average voter turnout" in Lehigh County, one of the prime battlegrounds.

From the conversations I've had with people on the ground in Pennsylvania, the Obama ground game is top-notch. SEIU has made a major commitment of resources to knock on door and get out the vote. I understand the response is much better than what they found in Ohio last month.

Markos
has made his prediction of 54% - 46% for Clinton. Al Giordano at The Field predicts 52.3% - 47.7% for Clinton. Based on my overly obsessive examination of polls and analysis -- and my gut instinct, I'm coming down in the camp that Clinton doesn't hit 55%. She may pick up some of the undecided vote, but the ground game and new registrants will probably counter that. She'll win by 7-8 points.

While this is fun to speculate, it doesn't matter. We know Clinton will win today. The victory in Pennsylvania has been preordained for months. Clinton can't win the nomination. I predicted last November that Clinton wouldn't be the Democratic nominee (back then, just five months ago, very few people shared that view, believe me). But, I don't think anyone imagined the process would go on so long -- or that Hillary wouldn't accept her defeat. She is going to continue her destructive ways, although, it's going to be tough considering her campaign is in the red. Clinton's campaign is running negative attack ads against Obama while it's running on fumes and not paying its bills. That says a lot about what we're dealing with. Last night, on the Daily Show, Jon Stewart asked Obama a funny, but actually prescient ,question:
At one point, Stewart asked Obama whether he worried "that you could win the nomination at the Convention and defeat John McCain in the general and, you know, go to the inauguration and Hillary would still be running?"
It sure feels that way.

We know the media loves a circus and no one puts on a better political circus than the Clintons. So, I refuse to let Chris Matthews or Mark Halperin or Jim VandeHei or George Stephanopoulos (or even Chuck Todd who I actually respect) tell us this isn't over for Clinton. It is. Read More......

Hillary: "A win is a win." Yes it is, Hillary. And you lost.


For the love of God, would a real reporter please just ask Hillary under what possible scenario she gets more delegates, more states, or more votes than Obama? You all keep playing this game of following her around like she's news. The only reason she's news is that she's an election zombie, roaming the primaries like she's still viable, when she's not. And you know it. And you've written it. But you don't ask her about it. Far more important than even Hillary's bizarre and ever-changing views on nuclear weapons policy is the fact that it doesn't matter any more what Hillary thinks about anything. She lost the nomination. She can't win. And short of an asteroid falling on Obama's head, he's going to get the nomination. We're all focused like a laser beam on the Pennsylvania results as if they matter. They don't. She lost. She can't catch up. We all know it. So why are we still playing this game? Because it would be mean to tell her the truth? Mean to ask her to explain how she possibly wins enough delegates, or even votes, when the math says she can't? What is she, 12? George Stephanopoulos said he couldn't think of a harder question to ask Hillary than as to why people don't trust her. Well, here's one, George: "Under what possible scenario could you catch up to Obama in either delegates or votes?" And don't accept her platitudes about "counting every vote." She can't mathematically overtake Obama, so what is she doing, other than wasting all of our time (and destroying her family's reputation)? (That's another "hard" question, George.) Read More......

Oil bounces over $118; Euro hits $1.60


UPDATE: Oil approaches $120.

More problems in Nigeria, Russia producing less oil, the weak dollar and China's demand shot up 8% from March 2007. In other words, same old, same old. And the dollar has hit an all time record low, trading at $1.60 to the Euro. Absolutely shameful. Read More......

Hillary dramatically rewrites US nuclear weapons policy in the Middle East, then her staff says "never mind"


In the past week, Hillary has dramatically altered US policy regarding the use of nuclear weapons in the Middle East. Specifically, Hillary is saying that she would launch a nuclear strike on Iran if they launched a nuclear strike on Israel. She is also saying that she wants to extend the US nuclear umbrella beyond Israel, and include other US allies in the Middle East (i.e., we would nuke Iran if they nuked these US allies).

That's a huge, and newsworthy, change in US policy. First, we don't admit publicly when and if we are going to use nukes. Hillary just did. That's big news. Second, defense experts I talk to say that we have never said publicly that we would use nukes to defend Israel (even though this might be assumed, it's different when you confirm it publicly). Third, we have never before said that we would extend the US nuclear umbrella to defend other countries in the Middle East. Again, Hillary just did.

Whether Hillary has adopted this major change in US nuclear policy simply to curry favor with voters in Pennsylvania is certainly worthy of discussion (one would hope that such policy is made to advance US national security and not to simply win votes). But there is something even more newsworthy to this story. Hillary's staff twice, yesterday, told the media that Hillary didn't say what she said. Top Clinton staffer Howard Wolfson said last night that Hillary did not mean to say that she'd use nukes against Iran. And then a second Clinton staffer told CNN that she did not mean to suggest that she would extend the US nuclear umbrella to other countries in the Middle East. Only problem? She did, repeatedly. (UPDATE: In fact, senior Hillary staff denied a third time that Hillary never mentioned using nukes, when she clearly said the US will have "a nuclear response" to Iran.)

So now we have no idea what US nuclear weapons policy would be under Hillary, and neither do our friends or our enemies. That creates an incredibly dangerous situation. One of the hallmarks of the US mutually-assured-destruction (MAD) policy during the Cold War was that the Soviets knew exactly what US policy was. If they used nukes, we would use nukes. There was no confusion. Confusion breeds uncertainty, and uncertainty leads your opponent to act in unexpected ways. And when you're dealing with nuclear war planning, you don't want a jittery opponent acting in ways you can't predict. Iran needs to know what will happen to it if it goes nuclear and attacks Israel (or anyone else). It is not helpful for Iran to think that, per Howard Wolfson and Hillary's other senior staff, maybe it can get away with a nuclear attack on Israel, or at least Saudi Arabia.

And finally, the same dilemma occurs with regards to our allies. It does no good for our allies, including Israel, to now be speculating that maybe the US won't defend them should Iran come knocking. That kind of uncertainty could lead our allies to take matters into their own hands, possibly even leading them to pre-emptive war, or even to seek their own nuclear weapons (Israel already has several hundred, but other US allies in the region have none).

Hillary's public battles with her own staff over the issues of US nuclear policy vis-a-vis Iran and US policy vis-a-vis our overall nuclear umbrella in the Middle East suggest that she doesn't have a clear, well thought out, policy - that she is simply winging it. If this were official campaign policy, her senior staff would know about it. And you'd think that nuking Iran and extending the US nuclear umbrella to our allies in the Middle East would be a sufficiently important enough policy change for it to have been vetted by Hillary's staff. Hillary's staff didn't even know about the policy - hell, they denied the existence of the policy - because it appears that Hillary made up this new nuclear policy on the fly, and is still honing the details in public as she speaks. So much for the phone ringing at 3am. It's not clear what Hillary thinks even at 3pm during the light of day.

Let me walk you through the various positions of Hillary and her staff regarding US nuclear policy and the Middle East:

1. Last October, Hillary says it would be wrong to speculate publicly about when and if the US should attack Iran: "I am not going to speculate about when or if they get nuclear weapons." Hillary also criticized her Democratic opponents for publicly discussing their war plans for the region: "[R]emember, you shouldn’t always say everything you think if you’re running for president, because it has consequences across the world. And we don’t need that right now."

2. During the ABC debate a week ago, Hillary implied that she'd nuke Iran if they nuked Israel. She also suggested that the US extend its nuclear umbrella beyond Israel, to protect other Middle Eastern countries from an Irani attack.
"I think that we should be looking to create an umbrella of deterrence that goes much further than just Israel. Of course, I would make it clear to the Iranians that an attack on Israel would incur massive retaliation from the United States, but I would do the same with other countries in the region."
3. Hillary reiterated her nuclear threat against Iran yesterday, telling ABC that if Iran attacked Israel with nukes, she'd "obliterate them" - widely interpreted to mean that she would nuke Iran.
"I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attack Iran," Clinton said. "In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them."
4. Then last night, Senior Clinton campaign aide Howard Wolfson backs off Hillary's Iran comments, telling Politico's Ben Smith last night that "she wasn't referring to, or suggesting, nuclear weapons."

5. Then, minutes later, Hillary goes on MSNBC's Keith Olbermann's show and says explicitly that she would use nuclear weapons against Iran, and that she would consider extending the US nuclear umbrella to other countries in the Middle East besides Israel:
"In order to forestall that, creating some kind of a security agreement [with countries in the region] where we said, no, you do not need to acquire nuclear weapons. If you were the subject of an unprovoked nuclear attack by Iran, the United States and hopefully our NATO allies would respond to that as well....

"[T]heir use of nuclear weapons against Israel would provoke a nuclear response from the United States, which personally I believe would prevent it from happening. And that we would try to help the other countries that might be intimidated and bullied into submission by Iran because they were a nuclear power, avoid that fate by creating this new security umbrella."
6. Then, a senior Hillary aide tells CNN that she didn't mean to imply that she would extend the US nuclear umbrella to other countries in the region, even though this is what she repeatedly said over the past week. Read More......

SuperDelegates take note


WSJ
Donna Brazile, an uncommitted superdelegate as an official of the Democratic National Committee, and manager of the 2000 Gore campaign. "There's a group around [Sen. Clinton] that really wants to take the fight to the convention. They don't care about the party. It scares me, and that's what scares a lot of superdelegates."
Read More......

In the United States in the year 2008, life expectancy for many women is dropping.


Another proud legacy of the Bush administration, news you'd probably expect to hear from developing nations, not the United States of America in the year 2008. This is the kind of news that should make people bitter, very bitter:
For the first time since the Spanish influenza of 1918, life expectancy is falling for a significant number of American women.

In nearly 1,000 counties that together are home to about 12 percent of the nation's women, life expectancy is now shorter than it was in the early 1980s, according to a study published today.

The downward trend is evident in places in the Deep South, Appalachia, the lower Midwest and in one county in Maine. It is not limited to one race or ethnicity but it is more common in rural and low-income areas. The most dramatic change occurred in two areas in southwestern Virginia (Radford City and Pulaski County), where women's life expectancy has decreased by more than five years since 1983.

The trend appears to be driven by increases in death from diabetes, lung cancer, emphysema and kidney failure. It reflects the long-term consequences of smoking, a habit that women took up in large numbers decades after men did, and the slowing of the historic decline in heart disease deaths.
I'd like to say this news is shocking, but nothing shocks me anymore. Oh, one other point from the article:
The phenomenon appears to be not only new but distinctly American.

"If you look in Western Europe, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, we don't see this," Murray said.
All those countries have some form of system that provides for universal health care. Read More......

Bush: "The highest disapproval rating of any president in the 70-year history of the Gallup Poll"


A new record:
President Bush has set a record he'd presumably prefer to avoid: the highest disapproval rating of any president in the 70-year history of the Gallup Poll.

In a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday, 28% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing; 69% disapprove. The approval rating matches the low point of his presidency, and the disapproval sets a new high for any president since Franklin Roosevelt.

The previous record of 67% was reached by Harry Truman in January 1952, when the United States was enmeshed in the Korean War.

Bush's rating has worsened amid "collapsing optimism about the economy," says Charles Franklin, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who studies presidential approval. Record gas prices and a wave of home foreclosures have fueled voter angst.
And, John McCain, who doesn't know all that much about the economy, wants to inherit the Bush mantle and run on the Bush legacy. Okay. Read More......

Tuesday Morning Open Thread


Good morning.

Finally, finally, finally, it's primary day in Pennsylvania. Finally.

The polls just opened at 7:00 a.m. and stay open til 8:00 p.m. Predictions? Hillary will win, but will it be the blowout she needs? We'll know tonight. I'm sure we'll hear all kinds of rumors and anecdotes throughout the day.

I'm ready for this to be over -- and ready to start the campaign against McCain.

Begin threading, please. Read More......

Latest update on Chinese weapons ship to Zimbabwe


Turned away from South Africa and Mozambique, the Chinese weapons ship stuffed with military equipment for Robert Mugabe, is heading towards Namibia or Angola. The US is reportedly asking countries to deny access or refuse unloading though the Bush administration has struggled with diplomacy, especially in Africa. Because the US does have a special trading status with Angola you would expect that might provide some leverage though when is the last time the US negotiated anything that threatened an oil business relationship? How often does the Bush administration stand up to China? Let's hope for the best. Read More......

NJ has some old fashioned ideas about the rule of law


They actually care about the rule of law, oddly enough. And when I say "old fashioned" I of course mean, pre-Bush.
Internet service providers must not release personal information about users in New Jersey without a valid subpoena, even to police, the state's highest court ruled Monday.

New Jersey's Supreme Court found that the state's constitution gives greater protection against unreasonable searches and seizures than the U.S. Constitution.

The court ruled that Internet providers should not disclose private information to anyone without a subpoena.
Read More......

Another fight breaks out at Holy Sepulcher


Nuts, nuts, nuts. I love Jerusalem and found the Holy Sepulcher to be an amazing place but just don't understand people like this.
Dozens of Greek and Armenian priests and worshippers exchanged blows at one of Christianity's holiest shrines on Orthodox Palm Sunday, and used palm fronds to pummel police who tried to break up the brawl.

The fight came amid growing rivalry over religious rights at the Church of the Holy Sepulcher, built over the site in Jerusalem where tradition says Jesus was buried and resurrected.

It erupted when Armenian clergy kicked out a Greek priest from their midst, pushed him to the ground and kicked him, according to witnesses.

When police intervened, some worshippers hit them with the palm fronds they were holding for the religious holiday.
Read More......