Scott Kleeb wins Democratic Senate nomination in Nebraska

Go Scott! I know you guys already gave Scott some great donations last week, but maybe we can give him just a bit more as congrats for tonight. You can give securely by clicking the blue box, 100% of your donations will go to Scott. This is going to be a tough fight to win in November. But, Scott is the best candidate the Democrats could have. Read More......

Democrat Childers wins Mississippi House Seat

This is stunning.

Tonight, Democrat Travis Childers defeated Republican Glen Davis in Mississippi's First Congressional District. I wrote earlier today about all the money the Republican party was spending to save what should be a solid GOP seat. They failed BIG TIME. The final margin was an impressive 8-point victory: 54% - 46%.

The magnitude of this loss cannot be overstated. The Republican party is in serious trouble in 2008. This is their third loss in a row of open house seats in GOP districts. Russert even acknowledged how big this is for Democrats saying, "That is a seismic election, believe me." Huckabee just admitted that this is bad for the Republicans. We are on our way to a historic election.

As the NY Times reported today, the GOP tried to make Obama the issue in Mississippi.

Hoping to hang on to a Congressional seat in a tight special election here on Tuesday, Republicans in this mostly white and very conservative district are trying to make the vote more a referendum on Senator Barack Obama than on the candidates themselves.

In advertisements and speeches, Republicans have repeatedly associated Travis Childers, the white Democrat threatening to take the seat away from the Republican Party, with Mr. Obama. Republicans say Mr. Obama’s liberal values are out of place in the district. But for many Democratic veterans here, the tactic is a throwback to the old and unwelcome politics of race, a standby in Mississippi campaigning.

Former Gov. William Winter, a Democrat, expressed shock at the current campaign.

“I am appalled that this blatant appeal to racial prejudice is still being employed,” said Mr. Winter, who lost the 1967 governor’s race after his segregationist opponent circulated handbills showing blacks listening to one of his speeches. Mr. Winter went on to win the governor’s office 12 years later.

That tactic failed.

The GOP has got nothing...nothing going for it this year.

UPDATED: Here's the statement on this win tonight from Senator Obama. The defeat of the GOP and its ugly campaign was also a victory for the Democratic nominee for President:

"I want to congratulate Congressman-elect Travis Childers on winning this special election. By electing Travis in this traditionally overwhelmingly Republican district, the people of Mississippi voted to end the politics of division and distraction, and bring about real change. This is the third special election in recent months that Democrats have won in traditionally Republican areas -- an unmistakable sign that Americans want to make a clean break from the failed Bush policies of the past - and are not looking for four more years of those failed policies from John McCain. I look forward to working with Travis in the months ahead to fix our economy, and make a difference in the lives of America's hardworking families," said Barack Obama.

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Hillary won West Virginia and an email arrived from fantasyland

John, Jacki and I were at a book party for Harry Reid, which is why we're only now posting the non-news that Hillary Clinton won West Virginia. No surprises. And, as expected, Team Clinton is in full frenzy mode. But, Clinton didn't meet expectations because the Clinton campaign got cocky. One of her top WV supporters claimed she would secure 80% of the vote. Ben Smith reported that Bill Clinton had been pushing for 80%, too.

Just got this email from Hillary:

After tonight's tremendous victory here in West Virginia, it's clear that the pundits declaring this race over have it all wrong. The voters in West Virginia spoke loud and clear -- they want this contest to go on.

I'm listening to the voters -- and to you.

No, Hillary, you're not listening to me. My advice is to get out while you still have some shred of dignity left. This is pathetic. You lost the nomination. You are now hurting Democratic candidates who can't fundraise because you're still in the race. John posted a letter we received the other day from the finance director of a Democratic congressional campaign. You are killing these campaigns:

My candidate speaks every day to donors who tell him directly that they're more focused on the Presidential right now, or that they're tapped out because they've given so much to the Presidential. Or simply, as you say, because they're just pissed off about the Presidential.

And that's not even counting those who simply don't return our calls, or blow the candidate off when we do get them on the phone. We'll never know how many of those people would have been max-out donors to us, but are simply too involved in (or turned off by) the Presidential race to give a damn about someone who's running for a House seat....

For her to wait until June is a nightmare that may well guarantee that not only my guy, but dozens and dozens of other challengers will come up badly short of their goals for the 2nd Quarter. And my candidate is in the very top level of targeted races. I can only imagine what the lower tiers of challengers are facing (well, no, actually I've heard from some of them, including the finance chair for a candidate in the Midwest to whom I spoke today).

We need her to drop out now, not only for the sake of our real Presidential nominee winning in November, but so that the rest of us can finally have a fighting chance with donors.

McCain is launching full scale attacks against the Democratic nominee. Hillary and her crew are aiding and abetting McCain. It's that simple. Read More......

If you vote for Obama, Terry McAuliffe will go away

I'd vote for Hamas if it would get him off my TV. Today's McAuliffism: 90% of the media is for Obama. Really, Terry? Well here's a question: What percent of the media was for Hillary when throughout all of 2007 they kept repeating your talking point that Hillary was "inevitable" and that Obama had no chance? Why, yes, the answer is 100% of the media was for Hillary just until four months ago. So, the media was 100% for Hillary for 12 months, and they were (you claim) 90% for Obama for, what, 4 months? And that's unfair how? Then again, Team Clinton never was real good at math.

Now go away before someone drops a house on you. Read More......

Even for a cynic, Harry Reid is optimistic about Dem. Senate prospects

Yesterday morning, I attended the Maria Leavey Breakfast with Majority Leader Harry Reid. I brought my Flip camera to get video -- and I did (except the sound didn't come through.) So, I waited for the transcript before I posted on the event.

Reid was his usual blunt self, answering questions on the record for the reporters and bloggers at the meeting. He didn't hold back. Nico Pitney posted one account here.

Couple of great lines from Reid. On Republican Senators:

First of all folks understand that the Republicans in the Senate do not represent mainstream Republicanism in the country. Mainstream
Republicanism in the country is moderate. The Republicans in the Senate are not moderates, with the one exception of Olympia Snowe are not moderates, they're right wing. And that includes some people who in the past have been moderates, someone you'd think like Arlen Specter. I talk about Arlen Specter in my book briefly and say that he's with us when we don't need him. (Laughter) Which is true, he never votes with us on an important vote. The only one who does is Olympia Snowe.

And on FISA:

As you know the Senate passed a bill that granted immunity, I and the majority of the Democrats opposed that, but there were still enough Democrats to join with the Republicans to pass it. I personally don't believe that the phone companies should have immunity and I certainly don't think Bush and Cheney should have immunity. And that's where we are. They are trying to work something out. These are public hearings, public negotiations most of the time, not all of the time, but remember this is not going to happen unless we have Chairman Conyers and others sign off on it, otherwise you can't get it done. So I think we have some good people involved in this. Hopefully we'll work something out on it. As I said, I think the mad rush for immunity was not intense as it was.

For me, the best moment was the last question asking the Majority Leader to handicap the upcoming Senate races.

After explaining how well all the incumbents are doing, Reid turned to the challengers and open seats. In his own words:

We're ahead in Virginia, I mean Virginia's not even close. We're ahead in New Mexico. We'll probably win in Colorado. We're very concerned about that state always even though Mark Udall's way ahead, because the Republicans, there's more than 100,000 more Republicans than Democrats in that state. It's changing significantly, you have a Democratic legislature, a Democratic governor so we're doing OK in Colorado and I think Udall will win. As we speak we're ten points ahead of Stevens in Alaska. Mayor Begich is in town today, I'm going to go to an event for him later on this morning. We have a primary in Oregon. We believe that Merkley who's speaker of the Assembly, can beat Smith.

We believe that Elizabeth Dole is going to be beaten. The niece of Lawton Chiles, governor and senator from Florida, who is running, she's a state senator, and she's only two or three points behind her right now and I think she's going to win that race, she meaning Kay Hagan.

We have, we got poll results back out of Texas, we're only four points behind in Texas.

We're tied in Mississippi as we speak.

We just have a lot of places to look that are very important. I believe that Maine is going to be our Rhode Island this time. I think Sue Collins who has favorability not nearly as high as Chaffee's, but once Allen starts tying her to what Bush has done Maine which has a very progressive state, are, they're going to turn her out

So we're going to pick up some seats I've only gone over a few of them. We're as I, I think I told you we're competitive as I speak in 11 seats, so I hope that we'll pick up a number, a few of them. I'm kind of a cynic about everything that way I'm not disappointed as often. So I think we'll pick up four seats, five seats.

Let's review what's in play: Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, Oregon, North Carolina, Texas, Mississippi and Maine. Sounds good to me. I'd throw in New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nebraska (after Scott Kleeb wins tonight), too. Read More......

Keep an eye on Mississippi and Nebraska tonight, too

Yes, there's a primary today in West Virginia. Yes, Hillary Clinton will win. Yes, Terry McAuliffe and the crew will be apoplectic, claiming she's on a roll again. She isn't. It's over. She lost. If the Clinton campaign had any class, tonight would become her swan song -- and she could go out on a high. But, don't count on it. Polls close in West Virginia at 7:30 P.M. Eastern.

Also, today, there's a runoff in the special election for the House seat in Mississippi's First Congressional District between Democrat Travis Childers and Republican Greg Davis. On paper, given the GOP dominance in the district, this shouldn't even be a race. But, it is. And, the House Republican campaign committee has been spending a huge chunk of its paltry budget on a seat that should be solidly Republican. Via email, the DCCC tells us:

After losing the last two competitive special elections for Republican seats (IL-14 and LA-06), the NRCC and its conservative allies have gone all out to try to hold MS-01. Republicans have had to spend nearly 20 percent of their cash on hand on a reliably Republican district. Democrats have spent only 4 percent of our cash on hand. The conservative group Freedom’s Watch spent at least $460,000. In total, Republicans have spent at least $1.7 million on MS-01.

Vice President Dick Cheney, Governor Haley Barbour, former Governor Mike Huckabee, Senator Thad Cochran, former Senator Trent Lott, and Senator Roger Wicker have all campaigned on Republican Greg Davis’ behalf in what Politico calls, “one of the safest Republican areas in the nation.” Additionally, President Bush, Laura Bush, and Senator McCain recorded automated calls that were sent to voters throughout the district.

The Republican has run a very negative campaign against Childers. This truly is a GOP "kitchen sink" strategy to save a solid GOP seat. f the Republicans are in this much trouble in MS-01, imagine what November will be like. Polls close in Missisippi at 8:00 PM Eastern time.

Also, today is the Democratic primary for the Nebraska Senate seat. This is an open seat to replace retiring Chuck Hagel. We're supporting Scott Kleeb. And, if Scott wins, this Senate seat will be in play. The Republican nominee will be Mike Johanss who served in the Bush administration as Agriculture Secretary and was also governor of the state. The polls close in Nebraska at 8:00 PM Central time. Read More......

So when is McCain's buddy Hagee apologizing for his anti-Semitic, racist, homophobic and anti-women comments?

From the DNC:

"Now that Reverend Hagee is apologizing for his anti-Catholic comments, does John McCain think that Hagee should also apologize for his other comments? If so will he have the courage to say so publicly? said Democratic National Committee Communications Director Karen Finney. "Unless John McCain's idea of being a new kind of Republican includes cozying up to radicals who compare women to dogs, hold racially insensitive fundraisers and call one of the worst natural disasters in our country's history God's punishment, he should renounce John Hagee's endorsement immediately. Given John McCain's history of putting political calculations ahead of his principles, we're not holding our breath."

McCain Spent One Year Courting Hagee Endorsement. "In an interview that will appear in this Sunday's New York Times Magazine, controversial televangelist Rev. John Hagee declares, 'It's true that [John] McCain's campaign sought my endorsement.' McCain has attempted to distance himself from some of Hagee's views, much as Barack Obama is doing in relation to Rev. Jeremiah Wright. But unlike McCain, Obama has not stood on stage with Wright and accepted his accolades this year." [Editor and Publisher, 3/20/08]

Rev. John Hagee on Hurricane Katrina: "All hurricanes are acts of God because God controls the heavens. I believe that New Orleans had a level of sin that was offensive to God and they were recipients of the judgment of God for that." [NPR Fresh Air, 9/18/06]

Hagee Repeated Claim: "The topic of that day was cursing and blessing… What happened in New Orleans looked like the curse of God, in time if New Orleans recovers and becomes the pristine city it can become it may in time be called a blessing. But at this time it's called a curse… In the case of New Orleans, their plan to have that homosexual rally was sin. But it never happened. The rally never happened." [Dennis Prager Radio show, 4/22/08]

Hagee on African Americans: The San Antonio Express-News reported that Hagee was going to "meet with black religious leaders privately at an unspecified future date to discuss comments he made in his newsletter about a 'slave sale,' an East Side minister said Wednesday." The Express-News reported: "Hagee, pastor of the 16,000-member Cornerstone Church, last week had announced a 'slave sale' to raise funds for high school seniors in his church bulletin, 'The Cluster.' "The item was introduced with the sentence 'Slavery in America is returning to Cornerstone" and ended with "Make plans to come and go home with a slave." [San Antonio Express-News, 3/7/96]

Hagee on Women: "Do you know the difference between a woman with PMS and a snarling Doberman pinscher? The answer is lipstick. Do you know the difference between a terrorist and a woman with PMS? You can negotiate with a terrorist." [God's Profits: Faith, Fraud and the Republican Crusade for Values Voters, Sarah Posner]

More Hagee on Women: "[T]he feminist movement today is throwing off authority in rebellion against God's pattern for the family."["Bible Positions on Political Issues," John Hagee]

Hagee on Islamic Beliefs: Fresh Air host Terry Gross asked if Hagee believed that "all Muslims have a mandate to kill Christians and Jews," to which Hagee replied, "Well, the Quran teaches that. Yes, it teaches that very clearly."[NPR Fresh Air, 9/18/06]

Hagee on Jewish Americans: "It was the disobedience and rebellion of the Jews, God's chosen people, to their covenantal responsibility to serve only the one true God, Jehovah, that gave rise to the opposition and persecution that they experienced beginning in Canaan and continuing to this very day." [Matthew Yglesias, The Atlantic Online, 2/29/08]

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House Republicans caught lying about Obama and Israel

Extinction brings out the worst in people. Read More......

Big Clinton ally and donor attends Obama fundraiser

Writing meet wall.

“Sarah Kovner, a longtime supporter of Hillary and Bill Clinton, a close associate of Harold Ickes and a lion of New York's liberal political establishment, attended a fund-raiser for Barack Obama last night, according to two attendees. The event, was held at the East End Avenue home of money manager Eric Schwartz.”

Kovner has donated $2,550 to Hillary. Read More......

Sadr continues smart political moves

As Sadr continues to develop his strategy and following in Iraq, the cleric who really does have the most power in the country, Ayatollah Sistani, has been overlooked recently, in part because he's been relatively quiet. Wonk Room (with ThinkProgress) takes a look at how this is developing politically, drawing a parallel to past clerical rivalries in which the elder Sadr authorities often spoke out against Saddam's rule more than others, earning them credibility just as Moqtada earns it today with his anti-U.S. stance. More importantly for the lives of Iraqis, criticism isn't the only thing Sadrists do:

One of the central elements of the elder Sadr’s program (and now of Muqtada’s) was a distinction between the “silent clerics” (represented by Sistani and the Najaf establishment) — bookish sorts who stay remote from the lives of their people — and the “speaking clerics” who take part in the suffering and struggle of the Shia, as Sadeq did. And here the “silent clerics” once again stayed silent while Shia were crushed in Sadr City, of all places, while medical care, food, and shelter are being doled out in Muqtada’s name. It doesn’t require any math to see that Sadr benefits politically from this.

The administration continues to both misunderstand and underestimate the power of social movements in Iraq, and Sadr's is arguably the most powerful and influential. And if were were providing the kinds of services that he is, he wouldn't have been able to step into that void. Read More......

Mexican newspaper ad: "A world so complex needs a good explanation"

There are a lot more Bush ads here.

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Trends

Overall, the graphs show that since Super Tuesday, at the beginning of February (over 3 months ago), Hillary has been losing ground to Obama. That's a clear trend, clear momentum, in his direction, and it hasn't changed, even after Rev. Wright, even after Hillary "finding her voice." From ABC, via Ben Smith:

1. Delegates won in the primaries and caucuses:



2. Superdelegates - i.e., members of Congress, Governors, DNC officials. (Note: I added the last data point, for May 13 (today)):


3. Total delegates (Pledged and Super):



4. Popular vote:

Read More......

Support Rick Noriega from Texas for US Senate

Put the Texas Senate race on your radar screen, and open up your wallets (please). Democratic candidate and Afghan war vet, Rick Noriega, is already running a very strong race against the GOP incumbent, John Cornyn, who is one of the nastiest and most right wing Republicans in the Senate (think: Santorum, but dumber).

Cornyn once said that violence against judges is understandable (remember that one?) And Cornyn defended Karl Rove's role in the Valerie Plame affair. Rick Noriega, on the other hand, has a 100% rating from NARAL, is good on gay issues, and more. You can give to Noriega by clicking on the blue box (right).

But what are his chances? Rather incredible, actually.

Last week, two polls came out showing that Noriega had moved to within four points of Cornyn:

1. Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/5-7. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/24-26/07 results)

Cornyn (R) 48 (51)
Noriega (D) 44 (35)

That is nothing short of astounding. And lest anyone worry that it's an outlier, these numbers confirm a Rasmussen poll from earlier this week:

2. Rasmussen. 5/1. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Cornyn (R) 47
Noriega (D) 43

Rasmussen elaborated:

It’s time to add United States Senator John Cornyn to the list of potentially vulnerable Republican incumbents in Election 2008. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state find Cornyn leading Democratic state legislator Rick Noriega by just four percentage points, 47% to 43%.

Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable. That is especially true when a little known challenger is so competitive in an early general election match-up.

We can help make Noriega a better known and better funded challenger.

Texas Democrats are energized this year. And, Noriega is the perfect candidate for his state. He’s a native Texan with an impressive career and commitment to public service. Rick is a veteran who has served in the U.S. Army and the Texas National Guard - including a fourteen month tour of duty in Afghanistan. Check out his website.

Rick Noriega is a candidate who can change the political landscape in Texas. Howie Klein interviewed Rick recently, and he is great on the issues you care about. Let's help him do it by clicking on the blue box, above, and donating to Rick's campaign. We've set a generous goal of raising $15,000 this week via the blog. We'll be reminding you throughout the week. And we're done with Rick, we'll hit another race, and so on. Thanks, guys. JOHN

PS By law, you can give a maximum of $2300 to Noriega. But honestly, even 25 or 50 bucks is appreciated. It all adds up. Read More......

Bob Barr's independent run for prez is meant as challenge to McCain

Now this could be fun. Curious if Barr will be invited to the debates.

Excellent.

he made no secret about his disdain for the presumptive Republican nominee, who would probably suffer most from Barr's entry in the race.

"What's your problem with McCain?" one of the reporters asked after Barr's announcement speech.

Barr turned to his campaign manager, former Ross Perot adviser Russ Verney. "How long do we have here, Russ?"

Time enough, evidently.

Barr took issue with McCain's Iran policy. "I'm not going to go around making up songs about such a serious matter as going to war with a sovereign nation, as Senator McCain did," the former congressman said, tut-tutting McCain's "Barbara Ann/Bomb Iran" episode.

He quarreled with McCain's Iraq policy. "These troops need to be brought home," he offered....

"I daresay that those people who would be inclined . . . to vote for Bob Barr as president would not likely fall into the category of people who would be enthused about voting for John McCain -- if such exists," he said with relish.

Read More......

Good Morning America helps promote "Obama is Muslim" lie

GMA's KATE SNOW: Janis said she can't support Obama.

JANIS (STUPID VOTER): He's Muslim and that has a lot to do with it. I just, you know, I just would rather have Hillary.

GMA's KATE SNOW: Just for the record he constantly says he's a Christian -

JANIS (STUPID VOTER): I know he does.

GMA's KATE SNOW: You don't believe him?

JANIS (STUPID VOTER): No.

NOTE FROM JOHN: Tell ABC an on-air apology and correction is in order.

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Carville thinks Obama is going to be our nominee

Duh, but still, he's a huge Hillary supporter, and a very public one. If he's now giving Hillary's political eulogy, it's really over. From CNN's Political Ticker:

"I still hear some dogs barking," Carville said, according to The State newspaper. "I'm for Senator Clinton, but I think the great likelihood is that Obama will be the nominee."

Read More......

Over 18,000 "buried under debris" in one city in China

Reuters:

China said on Tuesday 18,645 people were buried under debris in the city of Mianyang, neighboring Wenchuan county, the epicenter of Monday's devastating earthquake. Some 3,629 people had been confirmed dead.

During the Today Show, NBC superimposed a map of the U.S. over China to give a sense of how far the effects of the quake would have extended. It would have been felt from Maine to Arizona. Read More......

Obama march towards nomination picks up speed as more delegates come his way

AP looks at the numbers and sees Obama will sew up the nomination within a couple weeks:

Barack Obama's wave of superdelegate endorsements puts him within reach of the Democratic presidential nomination by the end of the primary season on June 3 - even if he loses half of the remaining six contests.

The Illinois senator has picked up 26 superdelegates in the past week. At that pace, he will reach the number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination - 2,025 - in the next three weeks, when delegates from the remaining primaries are included.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's best chance to slow Obama is to move the goal posts. She will get that chance May 31 when the Democratic National Committee's rules panel considers proposals to seat the delegates that had been stripped from Florida and Michigan. Those two states violated national party rules by holding their primaries in January and lost their delegates.

Those goals posts aren't moving. But, there is continued movement towards Obama.

In fact, it's going from a wave to a cascade towards the inevitable nominee. Politicians want to get on the winning team. I mentioned one superdelegate endorsing Obama, (Rep. Joe Donnelly), in the open thread below. Jed reports on two pick ups last night, one in DC and one in Maryland. Interesting, the delegate from Maryland, Jack Johnson from Prince Georges County is a pledged delegate, not a super:

Unlike superdelegates, who are free to endorse either candidate, Johnson is one of 28 pledged delegates who have agreed to represent the 36 percent of Maryland Democrats who voted for Clinton on Feb. 12.

Some Clinton delegates were chosen by voters at the ballot. Others, such as Johnson, were selected in consultation with the Clinton campaign by the Maryland Democratic State Central Committee, party spokesman David Paulson said.

Now, keep in mind, it was Hillary Clinton herself who talked about how pledged delegates could switch under the DNC rules. So, delegates are starting to switch, but away from her. Read More......

Tuesday Morning Open Thread

Good morning.

Just watched Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson on the Today Show. He's continuing the delusions. Amazing. Hope he's getting paid a lot of money to appear on national t.v. just to parrot those Clinton campaign talking points spin, because most people are just laughing and shaking their heads when they hear it. Yes, Clinton will win in West Virginia. It should be her swan song. But, it won't. It's a great big ego trip now. A destructive, very expensive ego trip. But, it's gone from just annoying to pathetic.

Meanwhile, Obama already picked up a superdelegate.

What else is going on in the real world? Read More......

Name that TV commercial you can't get out of your head

UPDATE: Sources tell me that the toy might have been named "Tumblina," which makes sense, since she rolls over. Wasn't Thumbelina some fairy tale thing?

So, I was making dinner and had, for God knows what reason, this TV commercial going through my head:

Thumbalina, she really turns over!
Thumbalina, she really turns over!
Hold her head (hand?), roll over on her back
and hold her arms right out to you.

What bad TV commercial from your childhood is still haunting you? Read More......